Comments on the 2012 based ONS Population Forecasts for Guildford and implications for housing requirements

To be read in conjunction with the two ONS spreadsheets attached:

. 2012 projection table5_tcm77-364156.xls (simplified) . and 2012 projection table5_tcm77-364156.xls

According to the ONS, the population of Guildford was 139,700 persons in 2012 (based on the 2011 census data). The projected increase of Guildford’s population to 2031 is arrived at by projecting forward four different elements:

. Natural change (net effect of births and deaths) . Net internal migration (net migration from other local authorities within England) . Net cross-border migration (net migration from Wales, Scotland and N. Ireland) . Net international migration (net migration from outside the UK)

Natural change is projected to increase the population of Guildford by 13,000 persons to 2031. Net cross-border migration is projected to have no effect on the overall population of Guildford by 2031 (i.e. Inward cross-border migration cancels out Outward cross-border migration). However, Net internal migration is projected to reduce the population of Guildford by 14,800 persons to 2031.

Therefore, excluding international migration, the overall effect of natural change, internal migration and cross-border migration, is projected to actually REDUCE the population of Guildford by 1,800 to 137,900 in 2031.

The overall projected increase in Guildford’s population to 161,300 in 2031 is therefore entirely due to the projected growth in Net international migration of 23,100, a figure which the ONS can only predict with lower reliability.

These figures are largely based on the fact that Guildford is a University town attracting a large number of overseas students. The projections assume that the Net international migration figure for Guildford will continue at approximately 1,200 per annum until 2031, resulting in a total increase of 23,100 persons. In fact the Net International Migration figures for Guildford can seen to be an anomaly, since the overall projection for Surrey is neutral (and both Elmbridge and Mole Valley actually show a decrease).

We believe that the projected increase in the Net international migration for Guildford is largely based on an unusually high increase in the number of international students attending the University of Surrey between 2008 and 2011 and that this increase is unlikely to continue. Furthermore, current government policies are aimed at reducing net international migration.

The Guildford Residents Association (GRA) therefore urges Guildford Borough Council to exercise its right and reduce the ONS projection for Net international migration to establish a more reliable population forecast on which to assess the future housing need for Guildford.

Please reply to: Guildford Residents Association at [email protected]

26 August 2015