Busadm 713: Business Forecasting Methods, Spring 2018

BusAdm 713: Business Forecasting Methods, Spring 2018 Online Course University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Sheldon B. Lubar School of Business

1. Instructor Information Instructor: Dr. Mostafa Baladi Telephone: (608) 577-7809 e-mail: [email protected]

2. Course Information

Section: 203 (Online). 3 Credits

3. Prerequisites

The prerequisites for this course are graduate standing, and BusMgmt 709 or BusAdm 754.

4. Course Materials

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., and Hyndman, R.J. (1998), Forecasting Methods and Applications, Third Edition, Wiley. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Forecasting%3A+Methods+and+Applications %2C+3rd+Edition-p-9780471532330

Brocklebank, J. C. and Dickey, D. A. (2003), SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Second Edition, Wiley. http://support.sas.com/publishing/authors/brocklebank.html

5. Course Overview 1 Course Description: Overview and use of modern forecasting methods in support of managerial strategic planning, financial, and operational analysis of a dynamic global business environment.

Learning Objectives:

 Presenting the essential components of the theory and practice of statistical forecasting.  Understanding how forecasting is carried out in the firms and how they can be improved.  Presenting alternative methods of forecasting.  Exploring regression analysis with different assumptions on the error structure as well as ARIMA time-series forecasting methodology.  Presenting the forecast methodology using only the history of the variable of interest.  Expanding the analysis to identify causal variables and incorporate them into the forecasting process. In this regard special emphasis will be given to the macroeconomic variables.  Examining the analytical tools in the evaluation of the model robustness and predictability.  Exploring how judgmental factors can and are incorporated into the forecasting process.

Fully Online:

This course is fully online. All weekly materials will be posted one day before the start of the next week. All assignments and exams will be completed online. There will be deadlines for all the assignments and exams. There will be discussion forums and you will be able to interact with classmates in these discussion forums. These forums will allow you to clarify the class points with classmates. I will observe the discussions and will provide comments if it is required.

Teaching Goals:

After many years of being a student of economics and statistics and over thirty years of teaching and conducting economics/statistics/econometrics research, I have learned that the best of way of learning is by actual doing. In this course my goal is that by the end of this class you have a very good knowledge base of the forecasting methods, the analytical tools, and some real experience in using data and carry out forecasting. I indeed want to share with you what I have learned in the real world of business forecasting. Having worked in the real business world for decades, and still conducting analytical tasks, I do observe a good demand for business forecasting skills and experiences. Companies have a real need for forecasting the crucial variables affecting their business profitability and efficiency. We will explore the relevant crucial analytical tools, and my emphasis will be on the practical implementations of these tools.

2 Student Responsibilities

On average, students are expected to spend 48 hours per credit per semester (i.e. 144 hours for a 3- credit course). You should expect to take at least 60 hours over the course of the semester reading the textbook and other required materials. There are also 11 homework assignments which you should expect will require at least 5 hours each. Reserve at least 10 hours to study for and take the final exam.

D2L Course Management Site:

You can access the course at UW-Milwaukee’s Desire to Learn (D2L) site. The link to D2L on the UWM home page (http://www.uwm.edu/). If you have any questions on D2L, please contact [email protected] or call (414) 229-4040 (toll free at 877-381-3459).

SAS Software SAS is available in the Lubar School of Business computer lab B. After you login, click the window icon in the lower left corner. Scroll to the "S" programs, click SAS and then click 9.4 (or SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 (64bit)). SAS on these lab computers is not accessible over the web. For this reason, I am registering this course with SAS OnDemand in order to provide all students with access to SAS over the web (see below).

For all your course work, only SAS is to be used. Use of any other software is not accepted.

You can find good instructions in the paper by the department of Sociology at the University of Waterloo http://instruct.uwo.ca/sociology/300a/SASintro.htm SAS Institute oﬀ ers free online tutorials that are best run from a browser window that is next to a SAS window. These tutorials are at http://support.sas.com/training/elearn/free.html then click Getting Started with SAS

Setting Up a SAS OnDemand Account

This course is being registered with SAS OnDemand Enterprise Guide. This provides you SAS access over the web. A student can access this free statistical processing system from an internet- connected computer by (1) creating a SAS Profile and then logging into SAS, (2) clicking on a link inside an instructor-sent email, and then (3) downloading a free utility onto their computer.

There is a student guide to enrolling in an OnDemand course at: https://support.sas.com/ondemand/manuals/EnterpriseGuideStudent.pdf

If you need help, please contact [email protected] or call (414) 229-4040 (toll free at 877-381-3459).

3 Lecture:

I will post the weekly lectures and material in D2L. There will be two weekly lectures, each up to 40 minutes. The lecture materials are provided in Power Point slides with recorded audios. My audios will clarify the contents of the slides. I highly suggest that you listen to the lectures for further details. In addition to the slide lecture material, there might be supplementary material as attachments in any given week.

Each week’s material will be posted one day prior to the given week. The lectures and the learning materials are found in the Content area:

Homeworks, Midterms, and Final: There will be 11 near weekly homework assignments over the semester. There will be no homework assignments in the first week, Spring break, midterm weeks, and the last week of lecture. All will be posted in D2L within the Content material. Submission deadlines are 11:59pm (CST) on Sunday night. There will be two Midterm exams and one Final exam. You will provide responses into a Word document and you will upload your exam document into a designated D2L Dropbox.

The final will be comprehensive. Discussion Forum: I would like that you would interact with other students in the class. I always find it very beneficial to students to discuss the online course material as we go through the weekly learning process. I will expect that you will routinely contribute to weekly forums. You will access the forums through the Discussions in D2L.

You will get points towards your class grade by your participation. I am looking for substantial and meaningful contributions regarding the course material. For Week 1 you only introduce yourself. In the following weeks, you can participate by a) raising questions on the week material, b) responding to other students’ posts, or c) by starting a new thread on some topics of the week that 4 you find interesting. I expect two substantial posts from you every week, starting Week 2 for full participation grade. Discussion participations account for 10% of your final grade. Over my many years of being a student and an instructor, I have found class topic discussions a very effective way of learning. Please help yourself and others by participating.

Team Project:

There will be a team project given out in Week 10. I will assign you to 3 to 4 teams. You will need to work with some real business data and build a forecasting model and evaluate the results. I will provide you with the expected project details in Week 9. The project will be due in the last week of the course. The goal of the project is to give you the experience of using the forecasting techniques learned in the course with some real data. You will have a chance to use SAS software in analyzing data and prepare a presentation based on your results. The details will follow later.

6. Grading The grade components are as follows:

1. Discussion Participations: 10%

2. Homework: 20%

3. Midterm 1: 15%

4. Midterm 2: 15%

5. Project: 20%

6. Final: 20%

Course grades are assigned as follows:

Course Score Course Grade 92 to 100 A 85 to < 92 A- 80 to < 85 B+ 70 to < 80 B 65 to < 70 B- 60 to < 65 C+ 55 to < 60 C 50 to < 55 C- 45 to < 50 D+ 40 to < 45 D 35 to < 40 D- 0 to < 35 F

Late homework will only be accepted for one day with 10% penalty. 5 6

7. Lectures and Exams Schedule

Week Topic Reading(s) Assignment(s) due by 11:59pm, Sunday 1 Introduction to forecasting, MWH: chs. 1, 2 Basic forecasting tools 2 Time series decomposition MWH: ch. 3 HW1 3 Smoothing Methods MWH: ch. 4 HW2 4 Simple regression analysis MWH: ch. 5 HW3 BD: ch.1 5 Multiple regression analysis MWH: ch. 6 HW4 6 Midterm 1 (Lectures 1-5) Multiple regression and forecasting MWH: ch. 6 7 Introduction to ARIMA MWH: ch. 7 HW5 modeling BD: ch. 2 8 General ARIMA models MWH: ch. 7 HW6 BD: ch. 3 Spring Break 9 ARIMA models and regression MWH: ch. 8 HW7 BD: ch. 4 10 Advanced forecasting methods MWH: ch. 8 HW8 BD: ch. 4 Form project teams 11 Midterm 2 (Lectures 5-10) Long-term forecasting MWH: ch. 9 12 Judgmental forecasting MWH: ch. 10 HW9 13 Comparing forecasts MWH: ch. 11 HW10 14 Implementing forecasting MWH: ch. 12 HW11 15 Conclusion Lecture notes Final Exam (comprehensive)

MWH = Makridakis, Wheelwright, and Hyndman, and BD = Brocklebank and Dickey. HW indicates a homework assignment.

7 8. UWM Policies and Procedures

See the UWM Graduate Bulletin for UWM policies and procedures regarding academic misconduct, sexual harassment, discrimination, course adding/dropping/withdrawal, incomplete in a course, repeating a course, and course grade changes. These documents are at http://uwm.edu/secu/wp-content/uploads/sites/122/2016/12/Syllabus-Links.pdf

Statement of Academic Misconduct

Chapter UWS 14, entitled “Student Academic Disciplinary Procedures,” of the Wisconsin Administrative Code contains rules enacted by the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents that apply to all University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee students. Section 14.01 states, “The Board of Regents administrators, faculty, academic staff and students of the University of Wisconsin System believe that academic honesty and integrity are fundamental to the mission of higher education and of the University of Wisconsin System. The University has a responsibility to promote academic honesty and integrity and to develop procedures to deal effectively with instances of academic dishonesty. … Student who violate these standards must be confronted and must accept the consequences of their actions.”

Statement of Sexual Harassment

Sexual harassment is reprehensible and will not be tolerated by the University. It subverts the mission of the University and threatens the careers, educational experience, and well being of students, faculty, and staff. The University will not tolerate behavior between or among members of the University community which creates an unacceptable working environment.

Discriminatory Conduct

The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee remains steadfastly committed to the principles of academic freedom. This commitment requires an equally strong obligation to foster respect for the dignity and worth of each individual. Without this respect, the principles of academic freedom become meaningless. Moreover, relationships such as student-faculty and employee-supervisor have inherent power differences that compromise some persons’ ability to protect their own rights. Therefore, this University must provide an environment that respects the value of each individual and which does not tolerate discriminatory conduct of any kind.

University Policies Regarding Change of Registration/Adding and Dropping or Withdrawal from Classes

After initial registration, students have the opportunity to modify their class schedule by adding, dropping or withdrawing from classes during specific periods prior to the start of the semester.

8 Such changes can be made without financial penalty until shortly before the start of the term (or before the start of a particular summer session). However, significant financial penalties can apply for changes made beyond the appropriate deadline, and some departments have unique deadlines and approval requirements governing how and when students may add and drop particular courses. Some academic programs also require their students to obtain specific approval for adding or dropping courses. Consult the most recent Schedule of Classes for dates, deadlines and procedures or contact the Business School Graduate Student Services office.

University Policy Regarding Incompletes

An Incomplete may be given to a student who has carried a subject successfully until near the end of the semester but, because of illness or other unusual and substantiated cause beyond that student's control, has been unable to take or complete the final examination or to complete some limited amount of term work. An Incomplete is not given unless the student proves to the instructor that s/he was prevented from completing course requirements for just cause as indicated above.

University Change of Grade Policy and Procedures

The following is from UWM Faculty Document No. 1927, May 12, 1994, entitled “Policies on Grading and Grade Records”. Grade or Record Changes. Instructors may not change a semester grade after the grade sheet has been submitted to the Registrar except for an inadvertent error in determining or recording the grade. Any change in a student’s grade or record, including retroactive change to drop, withdrawal, or incomplete, must receive the approval of the Dean of the School or College in which the student was enrolled at the time the course was taken.

Special Accommodations

If special accommodations are needed in order to meet any of the requirements of the course, please contact the professor as soon as possible. Students will be allowed to complete examinations or other requirements that are missed because of a religious observance.

9. Possible Changes to This Syllabus

There might be changes to the contents of this Syllabus during the semester if we recognize some changes might be beneficial to this class.