Target 2.0 Meeting Schedule

Target 2.0 meeting schedule

25/9/15

Intro for competition:

Data analysis: look for predictive as well as past data.

Always remember the data will have to be presented on a powerpoint slide – keep notes in a way conducive to this.

Consider a common inflation gauge/inflationary pressure measure

Novel methods of collecting data yourself

How can you use your data to stand-out.

Always keep sources of info.

Look for opportunities to present data clearly but possibly inventively

Add context to what you are saying – refer to the surrounding conditions to place your conclusions in context

Use summaries

1 person to start Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ for data sources & graphs

Now casting

Decide upon focus areas of analysis & responsibilities

 Money and financial markets -  Demand and output -  The labour market employment/unemployment/activity rates -  Costs and prices – esp. energy, commodities –  Impact of Fiscal policy -  The international economy – inc. Euro & others: world demand, general price inflation - Also consider specific info re: Impact/assessment of QE so far? Any further impacts to filter through?

Credit Easing -

House price index - is there a London bubble & if so when will it burst/is there likely to be a soft landing with service & finance sector growing? – how has rest of UK house prices faired? Prices steadily rising (+ve sign) (http://www.pwc.co.uk/the-economy/publications/uk-economic- outlook/ukeo-summary-july-14.jhtml) -

Consumer & business confidence measures/index - JH Euro zone issues/stability - RB

US demand/stability and likely impact of stimulus packages - RB

BREXIT impact of Brexit - ?

25/9/16

Intro – decide upon roles – as above

Summary of progress so far & initial thoughts

Changes to be made re: collection of data/direction

Collate and rationalise data

Last minute issues

1 person takes responsibility for building/constructing the presentation - SEND PRESENTATION TO ALL BY FRIDAY 23/10/15

Collate and rationalise data

Last minute issues

1 person takes responsibility for building/constructing the presentation - SEND PRESENTATION TO ALL BY FRIDAY 23/10/15

HALF TERM - Monday 24th - Friday 4th November

Further reading/research on given topic areas – create ‘slides’

Discussion of direction & findings so far 14/11 collation & MP vote

Organise order of presentation

SEND PRESENTATION slides TO ALL BY FRIDAY 11/11

1st Practice & Changes to presentation to be made this week

‘Script’ to be passed to RGS for printing on to Bablake cue cards

Print off presentation x6

Rehearsal of presentation to JGB/LJA/JWW

Competition Day – Birmingham University Target 2.0 resource list

Guidance

You should be reviewing the Target 2.0 website as a guide to what the BofE judges especially as the information in the booklet outlines the Bank’s view of how monetary policy is implemented and the areas they consider important to consider.

The objectives of your presentation Before you begin, make sure you are clear about the objectives of the Challenge, so you have a good idea of what you are aiming to achieve and what, in general terms, the judges will be expecting from your team's presentation. How you go about the task is up to you but remember that the broad objectives are: To assess the balance between demand and output, and the extent of inflationary pressure in the economy; To assess the future outlook for the economy in general, and the outlook for inflation in particular, in other words, you need to look ahead; Taking the MPC's interest rate on the day of the presentation as its starting point, judge whether interest rates should be changed or left at the current rate set by the MPC in order to meet the inflation target; Taking the MPC's current plan for asset purchases as its starting point, consider the option of injecting money into, or withdrawing money from, the economy to meet the inflation target. For guidance, refer to 'Quantitative easing - injecting money into the economy'. To make a monetary policy recommendation and offer supporting arguments and evidence; To deliver an interesting and effective presentation.

Sources of data

David Smith’s : www.economicsuk.com/blog/

Paul Krugman's 'Conscience of a Liberal'

IMF – Economic reports

EY ITEM Club http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Issues/Business-environment/Financial-markets-and- economy/ITEM---Forecast-headlines-and-projections

FT https://www.ft.com/content/436e7db8-6458-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

 Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ for data sources & graphs

 www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/targettwopointzero

 www.timesonline.co.uk/targettwopointzero

 Biz-ed (www.bized.co.uk)  Tutor 2u (www.tutor2u.com)

 Bank of England (www.bankofengland.co.uk)  BBC News (www.bbc.co.uk) – or any other reputable news web site  Economist magazine or website (www.economist.co.uk) – Often journalistic rather than truly economic focus  European Union Europa (http://europa.eu/index_en.htm)  European Central Bank (http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html)  Financial Times (www.ft.com/home/uk)  HM Treasury (www.hm-treasury.gov.uk)  Pocket databank – HM Treasury (http://www.hm- treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/latest_economic_indicators/data_indic_index.cfm)  Institute for Fiscal Studies (www.ifs.org.uk)  Office National Statistics (www.statistics.gov.uk)  Royal Economic Society (www.res.org.uk)  Robert Peston Blog – (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/) – accessible resource – generally dealing with macro-economic issues