Exxon Case Study: Corporate Risk Assessment

EXXON CASE STUDY: CORPORATE RISK ASSESSMENT

Aims & Objectives

This case illustrates a structured approach to analysing risk in any public or company. It may also be applied to private companies though the data sources and amount available may be different or even absent (e.g. share prices). Supporting lecture notes, reading materials and data are referenced below.

Case Study

You are a corporate loan officer in a major international investment bank and have been asked to carry out a preliminary assessment of the risk profile of the Exxon Corporation, one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world. The bank has just been asked to participate in a commercial paper programme on the best possible terms but wishes to carry out a thorough risk assessment first. The bank is already a major investor in Exxon bonds, has outstanding commercial paper, derivative transactions and is a significant investor in Exxon bonds and stock through its own pension fund and equity trading business. It is also one of several banks which may be asked to provide corporate finance advice in issuing new equity in the near future.

The importance of the banking relationship means you are you are heavily constrained in that the only data available to you is from public sources and you are strictly forbidden to see Exxon Corporation management accounts or to contact the company. You only have this afternoon to carry out the analysis and your manager wants to see a preliminary report at 9.00 tomorrow morning.

Assessment

Please work in pairs to carry out the following analysis and report writing. This work counts for up to 10% of your final course grade. You may pair with anyone but please ensure that if you are intending to have the course assessed you are paired with someone who is also having the course assessed, not with someone who is auditing. Write up your results and analysis as a short management report of no more than 3 pages including charts (12point Times New Roman, A4 paper, 2.5 cm margins). Send as Microsoft Word document and copy of Excel spreadsheet model attached to e-mail [email protected]. Please ensure report, spreadsheet, and e-mail is clearly marked with your names and arrives by deadline 9.00 a.m. Tuesday 11 April 2000.

1. Using the ten years of Total Return Data in Integrated Risk (Exxon Data).xls for Exxon stock, estimate the total Capital at Risk for the bank to 95% C.I. on its $100 million holding of Exxon stock. 2. Using 1998 Exxon Annual Report, 1998 Financial and Operational Review, identify five Financial, Operational, and Event risks (15 in total) faced by Exxon during 1998. 3. Using the ten years of total return data in Integrated Risk (Exxon Data).xls for Exxon stock, and total return data for other financial and commodity markets build a regression model to identify and quantify the major Economic risks (both transaction and strategic) faced by Exxon over the period 1 January 1988 – 31 December 1998. 4. Using information from news archives identify and quantify the major Event Risks faced by Exxon from the residuals of the regression in 3 above. 5. From the ten years of Accounting Raw Data in Integrated Risk (Exxon Data).xls calculate EaR and CFaR 6. In common with many other companies Exxon may soon announce that it wishes to buy back its own stock, in order to change its capital structure. Estimate the probability of Exxon failing to generate sufficient cash to cover its interest payments during 1999 if the expected level of interest payments was i) 10% higher and ii) 25% higher. Assume the expected Turnover (inc. Excise Duty) remains the same as in 1998 and comment on your results and whether you agree with Exxon [Hint: Use Excel NORMDIST function].

Reading

All the following can be found in the course pack and must be read to be able to do the case

“Corporate Risk Assessment” lecture presentation by John Bower “Reading between the lines" from Corporate Risk Management "Reading between the lines (II)" from Corporate Risk Management "Reading between the lines (III)" from Corporate Risk Management 1998 Exxon Annual Report 1998 Financial and Operational Review

Software

This case study can be completed on an Excel spreadsheet using the standard built in statistical and mathematical functions along with the Data Analysis tool on the Tools menu. Ensure the Analysis Toolpak Add-in is installed if you cannot find Data Analysis.

Data file

The case data is on the LBS forum at http://www.london.edu/faculty/kvlahos/prm/ just click on Course datafiles. It is also on Q: drive in a subdirectory called CBFM\PRM.

Web pages

Data useful to solving this case can be accessed via the internet and the LBS intranet. For ease of use key readings and datafiles have already been copied for you and are referred to in the Readings and Computer file listed above.

Link Description http://www.Exxon.com ExxonMobil corporate web pages provides investor and internal publications, limited news archive and description of corporate activities http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/ Securities & Exchange Commission database of corporate filings (10K, 10Q, etc) http://forum.london.edu/forum.nsf/H Many on-line data sources can be accessed via the LBS forum ome/Library?OpenDocument under the Resources-Library-Services:  Company Analysis (Accounts Data for Intl Listed Firms)  CDD (International Company Accounts & Annual Reports)  Datastream (Share price and financial market data)  Dow Jones Interactive (International news archive)

Disclaimer This case study, and supporting materials has been prepared for teaching purposes only. It uses only publicly available data. Neither the Exxon Corporation, nor any other corporate, governmental, or private entity has been involved in the preparation of the case materials other than the author. The case has been considerably simplified and is not intended to illustrate actual decisions or events made by Exxon Corporation or its bankers. No inference should therefore be drawn about the level of risk or risk management capabilities of Exxon Corporation or its successor Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Author John Bower, Decision Sciences Department London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent’s Park, London. NW1 4SA. Contact [email protected]. Case date: April 2000.