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Mon. 18 Apr. 2011

WASHINGTON POST  U.S. secretly backed Syrian opposition groups, cables released by WikiLeaks show……...…………………………1  Wikileak: Behavior Reform: Next Steps for a human rights strategy Syria …………………………………………….….6 EURASIA REVIEW  Syria’s New Government – Analysis………………………..7

JERUSALEM POST  Assad family biographer: Bashar is a changed man………...9

NYTIMES  Defying the Syrian President, Thousands Protest in Sometimes Deadly Clashes………………………….……..10 LATIMES  President Assad's promises fail to quell Syrian protests…...14 FINANCIAL TIMES  Protesters reject Assad’s reform promise…………………..17 AMERICAN THINKER  President Bashar al-Assad's Strategic Mistake…………….19 AIJAC  Misunderstanding Assad……………………………….…..21 TIMES OF MALTA  An Arab revolt in Syria…………………………………….24 YEDIOTH AHRONOTH  World Bank: 'Act now' to support Mideast………………...27

DEBKA FILE  Assad's own smuggling network commandeered for arming his opposition ………………………………………….…..30 HOME PAGE U.S. secretly backed Syrian opposition groups, cables released by WikiLeaks show By Craig Whitlock, Washington Post, Sunday, April 17,

The State Department has secretly financed Syrian political opposition groups and related projects, including a satellite TV channel that beams anti-government programming into the country, according to previously undisclosed diplomatic cables.

The London-based satellite channel, Barada TV, began broadcasting in April 2009 but has ramped up operations to cover the mass protests in Syria as part of a long-standing campaign to overthrow the country’s autocratic leader, Bashar al-Assad. Human rights groups say scores of people have been killed by 2 Assad’s security forces since the demonstrations began March 18; Syria has blamed the violence on “armed gangs.”

Barada TV is closely affiliated with the Movement for Justice and Development, a London-based network of Syrian exiles. Classified U.S. diplomatic cables show that the State Department has funneled as much as $6 million to the group since 2006 to operate the satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria. The channel is named after the Barada River, which courses through the heart of Damascus, the Syrian capital.

The U.S. money for Syrian opposition figures began flowing under President George W. Bush after he effectively froze political ties with Damascus in 2005. The financial backing has continued under President Obama, even as his administration sought to rebuild relations with Assad. In January, the White House posted an ambassador to Damascus for the first time in six years.

2 The cables, provided by the anti-secrecy Web site WikiLeaks, show that U.S. Embassy officials in Damascus became worried in 2009 when they learned that Syrian intelligence agents were raising questions about U.S. programs. Some embassy officials suggested that the State Department reconsider its involvement, arguing that it could put the Obama administration’s rapprochement with Damascus at risk.

Syrian authorities “would undoubtedly view any U.S. funds going to illegal political groups as tantamount to supporting regime change,” read an April 2009 cable signed by the top-ranking U.S. diplomat in Damascus at the time. “A reassessment of current U.S.-sponsored programming that supports anti-[government] factions, both inside and outside Syria, may prove productive,” the cable said.

It is unclear whether the State Department is still funding Syrian opposition groups, but the cables indicate money was set aside at 3 least through September 2010. While some of that money has also supported programs and dissidents inside Syria, The Washington Post is withholding certain names and program details at the request of the State Department, which said disclosure could endanger the recipients’ personal safety.

Syria, a police state, has been ruled by Assad since 2000, when he took power after his father’s death. Although the White House has condemned the killing of protesters in Syria, it has not explicitly called for his ouster.

The State Department declined to comment on the authenticity of the cables or answer questions about its funding of Barada TV.

Tamara Wittes, a deputy assistant secretary of state who oversees the democracy and human rights portfolio in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, said the State Department does not endorse political parties or movements.

“ We back a set of principles,” she said. “There are a lot of organizations in Syria and other countries that are seeking changes

3 from their government. That’s an agenda that we believe in and we’re going to support.”

The State Department often funds programs around the world that promote democratic ideals and human rights, but it usually draws the line at giving money to political opposition groups.

In February 2006, when relations with Damascus were at a nadir, the Bush administration announced that it would award $5 million in grants to “accelerate the work of reformers in Syria.”

But no dissidents inside Syria were willing to take the money, for fear it would lead to their arrest or execution for treason, according to a 2006 cable from the U.S. Embassy, which reported that “no bona fide opposition member will be courageous enough to accept funding.”

Around the same time, Syrian exiles in Europe founded the 4 Movement for Justice and Development. The group, which is banned in Syria, openly advocates for Assad’s removal. U.S. cables describe its leaders as “liberal, moderate Islamists” who are former members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Barada TV It is unclear when the group began to receive U.S. funds, but cables show U.S. officials in 2007 raised the idea of helping to start an anti-Assad satellite channel.

People involved with the group and with Barada TV, however, would not acknowledge taking money from the U.S. government.

“ I’m not aware of anything like that,” Malik al-Abdeh, Barada TV’s news director, said in a brief telephone interview from London.

Abdeh said the channel receives money from “independent Syrian businessmen” whom he declined to name. He also said there was no connection between Barada TV and the Movement for Justice

4 and Development, although he confirmed that he serves on the political group’s board. The board is chaired by his brother, Anas.

“If your purpose is to smear Barada TV, I don’t want to continue this conversation,” Malik al-Abdeh said. “That’s all I’m going to give you.”

Other dissidents said that Barada TV has a growing audience in Syria but that its viewer share is tiny compared with other independent satellite news channels such as al-Jazeera and BBC Arabic. Although Barada TV broadcasts 24 hours a day, many of its programs are reruns. Some of the mainstay shows are “Towards Change,” a panel discussion about current events, and “First Step,” a program produced by a Syrian dissident group based in the United States.

Ausama Monajed, another Syrian exile in London, said he used to work as a producer for Barada TV and as media relations director 5 for the Movement for Justice and Development but has not been “active” in either job for about a year. He said he now devotes all his energy to the Syrian revolutionary movement, distributing videos and protest updates to journalists.

He said he “could not confirm” any U.S. government support for the satellite channel, because he was not involved with its finances. “I didn’t receive a penny myself,” he said.

Several U.S. diplomatic cables from the embassy in Damascus reveal that the Syrian exiles received money from a State Department program called the Middle East Partnership Initiative. According to the cables, the State Department funneled money to the exile group via the Democracy Council, a Los Angeles-based nonprofit. According to its Web site, the council sponsors projects in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America to promote the “fundamental elements of stable societies.”

The council’s founder and president, James Prince, is a former congressional staff member and investment adviser for PricewaterhouseCoopers. Reached by telephone, Prince

5 acknowledged that the council administers a grant from the Middle East Partnership Initiative but said that it was not “Syria- specific.”

Prince said he was “familiar with” Barada TV and the Syrian exile group in London, but he declined to comment further, saying he did not have approval from his board of directors. “We don’t really talk about anything like that,” he said.

The April 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Damascus states that the Democracy Council received $6.3 million from the State Department to run a Syria-related program called the “Civil Society Strengthening Initiative.” That program is described as “a discrete collaborative effort between the Democracy Council and local partners” to produce, among other things, “various broadcast concepts.” Other cables make clear that one of those concepts was Barada TV.

6 U.S. allocations Edgar Vasquez, a State Department spokesman, said the Middle East Partnership Initiative has allocated $7.5 million for Syrian programs since 2005. A cable from the embassy in Damascus, however, pegged a much higher total — about $12 million — between 2005 and 2010.

The cables report persistent fears among U.S. diplomats that Syrian state security agents had uncovered the money trail from Washington.

A September 2009 cable reported that Syrian agents had interrogated a number of people about “MEPI operations in particular,” a reference to the Middle East Partnership Initiative.

“ It is unclear to what extent [Syrian] intelligence services understand how USG money enters Syria and through which proxy organizations,” the cable stated, referring to funding from the U.S. government. “What is clear, however, is that security agents are increasingly focused on this issue.”

6 U.S. diplomats also warned that Syrian agents may have “penetrated” the Movement for Justice and Development by intercepting its communications.

A June 2009 cable listed the concerns under the heading “MJD: A Leaky Boat?” It reported that the group was “seeking to expand its base in Syria” but had been “initially lax in its security, often speaking about highly sensitive material on open lines.”

The cable cited evidence that the Syrian intelligence service was aware of the connection between the London exile group and the Democracy Council in Los Angeles. As a result, embassy officials fretted that the entire Syria assistance program had been compromised.

“ Reporting in other channels suggest the Syrian [Mukhabarat] may already have penetrated the MJD and is using the MJD contacts to track U.S. democracy programming,” the cable stated. 7 “If the [Syrian government] does know, but has chosen not to intervene openly, it raises the possibility that the [government] may be mounting a campaign to entrap democracy activists.”

Hint: The news above appeared in all worldwide newspapers, but the news of Syrian Customs capturing smuggling weapons coming from Iraq appeared nowhere as a headline but sometimes in the body of the article.. HOME PAGE

Wikileak: Behavior Reofrm: Next steps for a human rights stategy Syria This cable represents a follow-up to “Re-engaging Syria: Human Rights” (ref A) and outlines ongoing civil society programming in the country, primarily under the auspices of the Bureau of Human Rights and Labor (DRL) and the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). Washington Post, 17 Apr. 2011,

….As the Syria policy review moves apace, and with the apparent collapse of the primary Syrian external opposition organization, one thing appears increasingly clear: U.S. policy may aim less at 7 fostering “regime change” and more toward encouraging “behavior reform.” If this assumption holds, then a reassessment of current U.S.-sponsored programming that supports anti-SARG factions, both inside and outside Syria, may prove productive as well.

3. (C) The U.S. attempt to politically isolate the SARG raised stumbling blocks to direct Embassy involvement in civil society programming. As a result, the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) and the Bureau of Human Rights and Labor (DRL) took the lead in identifying and funding civil society and human rights projects. Though the Embassy has had direct input on a few of these efforts, especially with DRL, most of the programming has proceeded without direct Embassy involvement….

In addition to these programs, the Embassy provided input on DRL grants awarded to Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), International War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), and The 8 International Research and Exchange Board (IREX). Though Post does not directly monitor any of these programs, we have appreciated the opportunity to meet with representatives of CIPE and IWPR. —MEPI —

5. (C) In addition to smaller local grants, MEPI sponsors eight major Syria-specific initiatives, some dating back to 2005, that will have received approximately USD 12 million by September 2010. A summary of MEPI produced material on these programs follows:

-Aspen Strategic Initiative Institute, “Supporting Democratic Reform” (USD 2,085,044, December 1, 2005 – December 31, 2009). The institute, situated in Berlin, works with indigenous and expatriate reform-oriented activists and has sponsored conferences in international locations that brought together NGO representatives, media, and human rights activists from the Middle East, Europe, and the U.S., XXXXXXXXXXXX. MEPI noted that “while this program has offered little intrinsic value and will not likely be continued beyond the terms of the grant, XXXXXXXXXXXX.

8 -Democracy Council of California, “Civil Society Strengthening Initiative (CSSI)” (USD 6,300,562, September 1, 2006 – September 30, 2010). “CSSI is a discrete collaborative effort between the Democracy Council and local partners” that has produced XXXXXXXXXXXX “various broadcast concepts” set to air in April. -Regents of the University of New Mexico, “The Cooperative Monitoring Center-Amman: Web Access for Civil Society Initiatives” (USD 949,920, September 30, 2006 – September 30, 2009). This project established “a web portal” and training in how to use it for NGOs. MEPI noted, “this program has been of minimal utility and is unlikely to be continued beyond the term of the grant.” XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

International Republican Institute (IRI), “Supporting Democratic Reform” (USD 1,250,000, September 30, 2006 August 31, 2009). “The project supports grassroots public awareness campaigns and the conduct and dissemination of public opinion polling research. 9 XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

-MEPI has also proposed continued programming for IRI and the CIPE, as well as supporting independent journalists through joint efforts with NEA/PI.

Challenge Ahead: Programming In Syria

6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

7. (S) Regarding the most sensitive MEPI-sponsored programs in Syria, Post has had limited visibility on specific projects, due in no small measure to SARG-imposed constraints. XXXXXXXXXXXX Through the intermediary operations of the Movement for Justice and Development (MJD) (ref B), a London- based moderate Islamist group, MEPI routes money XXXXXXXXXXXX. Our understanding is that the aforementioned Democracy Council grant is used for this purpose and passes the MEPI grant money on to the MJD.

9 8. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX 9. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX The SARG would undoubtedly view any U.S. funds going to illegal political groups as

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Assad family biographer: Bashar is a changed man In radio interview, Patrick Seale says Syrian president is completely in tune with situation in Syria, urges Israel to make peace with neighbor. Jerusalem Post, 17 Apr. 2011,

Syrian President Bashar Assad has transformed from the person the world is used to seeing, Patrick Seale, the official biographer of the Assad family, told Army Radio on Sunday morning.

Seale said Assad has become very serious and determined as 10 reflected in a speech he gave Sunday over a set of reforms the Syrian government plans to implement amid rising unrest in the country.

Seale noted that Assad sounded committed and focused, and that he seemed completely aware of the severity of the situation in Syria.

Seale, who has written several books on the Middle East, including Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East , on Syria's ruling family, said it was particularly significant that Assad addressed the unemployment problem in Syria which, the biographer said, was the catalyst for a wave of recent protests in the country.

Assad actually gave the new government instructions and a deadline by which to complete them, the biographer said, referring to a promise by the president to lift a nearly five-decade-old emergency law by next week.

10 Seale said there was no doubt most of the demonstrators killed in recent protests were shot at by government forces.

Asked whether what is happening in Syria is in Israel's favor, Seale said it was time for Israel to reconsider its security strategy and that peace with Syria and the Palestinians is necessary to ensure a better future for Israel.

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Defying the Syrian President, Thousands Protest in Sometimes Deadly Clashes By LIAM STACK NYTIMES, 18 Apr. 2011,

CAIRO — Rejecting the Syrian president’s latest effort to mollify 11 them, thousands of protesters took to the streets in cities and towns across Syria on Sunday, using a national holiday commemorating the end of French colonialism to widen their challenge to his family’s iron-fisted autocracy. Security officers responded with deadly force, witnesses reported, including live ammunition fired at a funeral and the seizure of critically wounded demonstrators from a hospital.

The protests on Sunday amounted to a brazen dismissal of the steps outlined by the president, Bashar al-Assad, only a day earlier in a televised address, notably the lifting of the country’s 48-year- old state of emergency before the end of this week. The protests have posed an unprecedented challenge to the rule of Mr. Assad, who has clearly been shaken by the upheavals that have felled longstanding governments in Tunisia and Egypt and are threatening those in Yemen, Bahrain and Libya.

The Syrian protests coincided with new disclosures that the United States began in 2005 to secretly finance some Syrian opposition groups intent on toppling Mr. Assad. The disclosures, in

11 diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks, showed State Department funding for Barada TV, an anti-Assad satellite broadcaster run by Syrian exiles in London, as well as concern by American diplomats in Syria that Syrian intelligence agents began to suspect the American financing two years ago.

It was unclear whether the secret financing has since been ended, but an April 2009 cable said a State Department program called the Middle East Partnership Intiative was to have distributed $12 million to an array of Syrian projects by September 2010. The existence of the cables was first reported Sunday night on The Washington Post’s Web site.

A September 2009 cable reported on a Syrian crackdown against groups and individuals that had received American funding.

"Over the past six months, SARG security agents have increasingly questioned civil society and human rights activists 12 about U.S. programming in Syria and the region," said the cable, using the acronym for Syrian Arab Republic government. It said some media figures had been interrogated about funding and that an imprisoned human rights lawyer, Muhanad al-Hasani, faced new charges for illegally receiving United States government funding.

“ It is unclear to what extent SARG intelligence services understand how USG money enters Syria and through which proxy organizations," the cable said, using an acronym for United States government. “What is clear, however, is that security agents are increasingly focused on this issue when they interrogate human rights and civil society activists.”

American funding for political training and other pro-democracy initiatives has been the longtime subject of complaints from several Arab governments in the past, notably including that of Hosni Mubarak, the ousted Egyptian president.

Mr. Assad has sought to suppress outside reporting on the protests in Syria, while his response to the protests themselves has

12 oscillated between dry proposals for reform and deadly violence, and on Sunday it appeared violence was the choice. Clashes between security forces and protesters left at least five dead and dozens injured on the holiday, meant to celebrate the removal of the last French troops from Syria in 1946.

Rights groups estimate that more than 200 people have died in the unrest, which began in mid-March.

The protests on Sunday reflected not only a rejection of Mr. Assad’s reforms, which also included a pledge to tackle unemployment and corruption and a law to permit political parties, but a desire to move beyond a political life dominated by the Assad family since 1963.

“ Everyone is shouting against Bashar personally,” said Razan Zeitouneh, an activist with the Syrian Human Rights Information Link. Among those singled out are Maher al-Assad, a brother who 13 commands the security forces, and Rami Makhlouf, Mr. Assad’s first cousin and a business tycoon widely seen as Syria’s most powerful economic figure.

Protesters chanted, “The people want the overthrow of Bashar!” and borrowed a line from Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Libyan leader, who threatened in late February to hunt rebel fighters down house to house: “Zenga zenga, dar dar, we want your head, oh Bashar!”

The worst of the violence on Sunday appeared to be in the central city of Homs and the nearby town of Talbesa.

Two died when security forces fired tear gas and live ammunition on a funeral procession in Talbesa, sending the town into chaos and leaving at least 15 wounded, said a witness and Ms. Zeitouneh. Security forces reportedly arrested a number of severely wounded protesters from the town’s main hospital, she added, raising fears that at least 12 listed in critical condition could die. State news media, reflecting the official version of

13 events, said one policeman was killed and 11 were wounded by rooftop snipers from a “group of armed criminals.”

Live fire also rang through Homs’ central Bab al-Sabe’a district when security forces shot at protesters, killing at least six people, Ms. Zeitouneh said. A witness said that three had died, two from the same family. He spoke over the telephone as the crowd behind him chanted, “With our blood, with our souls, we will redeem you, oh martyrs!”

In the coastal city of Baniyas, witnesses reported, a pro- democracy march by 3,000 women that began Sunday morning had drawn thousands more by nightfall, chanting “God, Syria, and freedom” and spray-painting slogans on the pavement urging Mr. Assad to “go out!”

“ We need our second independence in Syria,” said Radwan Ziadeh, a Syrian rights activist and scholar at George Washington 14 University in Washington. “The first was from the French and the second will be from the Assad dynasty.”

The government appeared to fear exactly that, and sought to keep the Independence Day holiday from becoming part of the protests, which have typically been the largest on Fridays, the Muslim day of prayer. In an apparent move to intimidate Syrians, state media warned on Sunday morning against “a big conspiracy hatched against their security and stability and to an attempt of instigating sedition targeting the exemplary coexistence prevailing in Syria.”

Others said the government’s deadly response to the Sunday protests cast the holiday in a new light.

“ My father led the revolution, but now we are in a police dictatorship and the government is oppressing us violently in every province,” said Mountaha al-Atrash, an elderly opposition figure whose father, Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, led an unsuccessful 1925 uprising against French rule. “The people want their rights, freedom and democracy, and these are legitimate demands.”

14 She spoke over the phone from her ancestral village of Quraya, where security forces dispersed demonstrators for trying to raise the Syrian flag and sing the national anthem. Her nephew, a grandson of the one-time rebel leader, was badly beaten by the police, she said. Several hundred protesters attempted to rally under a statue of Sultan Pasha al-Atrash in the central al-Shoulaa Square in the nearby town of Suwayda, a center for Syria’s Druze community, but were violently dispersed, said witnesses.

?”We were carrying pictures of the leaders of the revolution and the flag and chanting for a free Syria and oh my God, thugs who are pro-government, aided by security, attacked us,” said a young activist in Suwayda, who asked not to be name for fear of government reprisals. “Women were hit in the street and the pictures of our leaders, or our history makers, were broken.”

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15 President Assad's promises fail to quell Syrian protests Violent clashes with government forces erupt across the country as thousands of Syrians take to the streets in defiance of a warning by President Bashar Assad, who a day earlier had offered to enact reforms. By Alexandra Sandels and Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times April 17, 2011

Reporting from Beirut In a rebuke of concessions made by their ruler a day earlier, thousands of Syrians took to the streets Sunday for another day of anti-government demonstrations, clashing with club-wielding plainclothes government operatives in cities around the nation.

President Bashar Assad had vowed a day earlier to enact reforms and remove decades-old emergency laws which have given security forces free reign to monitor and arrest suspected dissidents. At the same time, Assad warned a seething political movement inspired by revolutions across the Arab world to end their campaign of civil disobedience.

15 Neither his promises nor warning appeared to appease a protest movement that still seems to be gathering steam. Nor have they halted the actions of security forces that have allegedly killed 200 people in weeks of unrest.

"It is possible that the security forces have turned into a beast which is not controllable and that those who do not believe in reforms have taken the upper hand," a Western diplomat in Damascus said. "The security forces are not a rationally structured organization — they have always acted in impunity. The spinal reflex is assault. They are accustomed to kill and shoot. There is no effective bureaucracy, organization or legal system putting a stop to this."

Though the protests did not appear to match the size of those that erupted on Friday, the Muslim Sabbath, they did take place across a large swath of the country.

16 "The people want freedom," they chanted in the country's second- largest city of Aleppo, which epitomizes the fragile sectarian mosaic that some Syrians fear could become undone if Assad and his Baath Party loyalists are toppled.

"God, Syria, freedom and that's all," they chanted, according to video footage posted online.

Protests also erupted in the northern city of Baniyas, where demonstrators shrouded themselves in white sheets to show they were peaceful, video posted to the Internet showed.

Demonstrations also were reportedly held in Duma, Zamalka and Harasta, restive cities northeast of the Damascus, the capital, as well as in Homs and Latakia.

One witness in southern Syria said hundreds of peaceful protesters, singing national hymns, chanting "Freedom" and holding Syrian flags to mark the 65th anniversary of the country's independence from France, were attacked by pro-government enforcers called baltagiya in the provincial capital of Suweda and

16 the nearby town of Qireya. The agents began hitting the protesters with clubs and portraits of Assad and at least seven people were injured, the witness said.

"The baltagiya came and started chanting for Bashar," said the witness, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. "They attacked a professional photographer and smashed his camera until it broke. They didn't differentiate between anyone."

Another source in Damascus in telephone contact with several witnesses in the south confirmed the account.

The Western diplomat described such vigilantes as "local mafia gangs" close to the "uglier parts" of the Assad clan, which has dominated the country's economic and political life for four decades.

17 "What we know is that they have distributed weapons in their own clan, picked up young unemployed men and that they bus in mobs with sticks in order to arrange pro-regime demonstrations," he said, speaking on customary condition of anonymity.

Syrian authorities claim the unrest is a result of a foreign conspiracy, though Assad refrained from reiterating those theories a day earlier. The official Syrian Arab News Agency reported Sunday that authorities seized a shipment of assault rifles, sniper rifles handguns and other weapons in a refrigerator truck at the Tanf border crossing with Iraq. The claim could not be independently verified.

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Protesters reject Assad’s reform promise By Michael Peel in Abu Dhabi Financial Times, April 17 2011

17 Syrians took to the streets and defied police baton assaults on Sunday in a rebuff to President Bashar al-Assad’s effort to quell protests by pledging limited reforms such as lifting the country’s 48-year-old emergency laws.

Demonstrations broke out in Aleppo, the country’s second city and an important bellwether of opinion, while debate crackled online between supporters and critics of the president.

The protests – on Syria’s Independence Day – came after Mr Assad pledged in a speech on Saturday to lift the country’s 48- year-old emergency laws, but refused to order a wider dismantling of his notoriously authoritarian police state.

Joshua Landis, director of the University of Oklahoma’s Centre for Middle East Studies, said that the president was in a “fight for the silent majority” of citizens, who were worried about the state of the country but feared “civil war and chaos” if he were toppled. 18 Prof Landis said: “On the one hand…they are very sympathetic to the demonstrators. But they don’t know if they want to overthrow the regime.”

Hundreds of Syrians chanted “The people want freedom” at the grave of Ibrahim Hananu, an independence leader, in Aleppo, which hasn’t so far seen anywhere near the intensity of protests seen in the country’s south.

In the southern city of Suweida, 80 miles south-east of Damascus, the capital, security forces launched baton attacks on demonstrators who were chanting ?God, Syria, Freedom!” witnesses said. There were further protests in Deraa, which has been a crucible of dissent and the scene of some of the harshest police action.

About 200 people have died in the protests as security forces have hit back ruthlessly, in an attempt to squash the revolt before it has a chance to develop into a serious threat he regime run by Mr Assad and his father Hafez for four decades.

18 While the protestor numbers are a tiny fraction of those who demonstrated in Egypt to topple President Hosni Mubarak in February, many Syrians have been angered both by the violence of the regime response and by Mr Assad’s perceived failure to take their grievances seriously.

Mr Assad promised to end the emergency law – which, as in Egypt, is widely hated – and admitted that a gap had opened up between Syria’s rulers and its people.

Alongside these concessions, he warned that further public dissent would be viewed as “sabotage”, saying there would be no excuse for it once he had introduced reforms including a new law permitting the creation of political parties.

His comments appeared to provoke a more mixed reaction among Syrians than his speech earlier this month that was widely attacked 19 as condescending in its dismissal of the protests as a mere product of foreign conspiracies.

While some online commentators praised him for addressing some of the concerns shared by many Syrians about the state of the country, others said it fell well short of people needed to hear.

Ammar Abdulhamid, a pro-democracy activist, said on his website: “While some in the Silent Majority might find his performance more convincing this time due to the business-like mannerisms he adopted, many are likely to see it for what it is: another demonstration of his arrogance and wilful blindness.”

The British government, which had raised concerns about the situation in Syria, said it welcomed President Assad’s acknowledgement that reform was “necessary and urgent to address the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people”.

William Hague, foreign secretary, said: “We call on the Syrian Government to lift the State of Emergency next week as proposed

19 by President Assad and to ensure that those responsible for the deaths of civilians are held to account.”

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President Bashar al-Assad's Strategic Mistake By Patrick J Howie American Thinker, 17 Apr. 2011,

As the wave of unrest rolls across Africa and the Middle East, the leaders of each country must decide how to deal with the call for democratic reforms. We have already seen a variety of responses, from Mubarak's attempt at appeasement to Ahmadinejad's swift and certain crackdown. Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, has tried to take a middle ground approach, offering the promise of a future of reforms but dispersing troops to rapidly quell any 20 unsanctioned gathering. The lessons from the most recent uprisings, as well as from uprisings throughout history indicate that, by offering the promise of reform, President Assad has made a strategic error that will ultimately lead to his downfall.

This is not to say that Assad will lose power immediately, for he has shown a willingness to use significant force against his people. But his recent actions all but guarantee that reform will happen; it is just a matter of time. President Assad's mistake is quite simple -- he acknowledged the arguments of the reformers. Though seemingly innocuous, this was a significant mistake. By promising reform, even if he doesn't mean it, President Assad has implicitly validated to the Syrian people that the arguments of the democratic reformers have merit.

This acknowledgment is a significant mistake because the authoritarian rule in Syria, as in most other autocratic countries, is fundamentally incompatible with the democratic reforms being demanded by the Syrian people. The foundation of democracy, that political power ultimately resides with the people, cannot be

20 reconciled with the foundation of the Syrian autocratic regime, where political power begins and ends with the President. President Assad must now try to uphold his near-absolute authority while attempting to provide democratic reforms. But he can't have it both ways.

This was Mubarak's mistake. He tried to preserve his power while agreeing to ultimately give it up. As soon as Mubarak agreed that he would work to implement democratic reforms he lost any claim to have legitimate power. The rapidity of Mubarak's ouster in Egypt was hastened by his unwillingness (or inability) to swiftly put down the protests, further emboldening the people. This is in stark contrast to Ahmadinejad in Iran, who publicly rejected the calls for reform -- thereby upholding the principles on which his power is based -- and who decisively put down any and all protests with a show of considerable force.

While Iran may ultimately become democratic, Ahmadinejad's 21 response recognized that democracy was at its very core incompatible with the democratic principles being espoused by the reformers. Any acknowledgment to the reformers would be a subtle, but ultimately fatal, crack in the foundation of Ahmadinejad's power. By not holding fast to the autocratic principles, President Assad will almost certainly face even greater resistance and he will have to escalate his military response accordingly. But for Syria, democratic reforms are now only a matter of time.

Patrick J Howie has spent over two decades studying the social process of change and is the author of The Evolution of Revolutions.

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Misunderstanding Assad Tony Badran AIJAC (Australia/Israel& Jewish Affairs Council) 17 Apr. 2011,

21 Understanding the behaviour and decision-making of the Syrian regime has long eluded policymakers and analysts. A year ago, one US official lamented this inability to comprehend why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad behaves the way he does, dubbing it “the million-dollar question.”

The ongoing upheaval in Syria has once again placed this problem under the spotlight, as observers struggle to make sense of the regime’s domestic policies, having equally failed to grasp the rationale behind its regional posture. In fact, the misunderstanding of the regime’s foreign policy is directly linked to the incomprehension of its internal stance.

Accompanying Assad’s response to the popular demonstrations against his rule has been the expert and journalistic commentary that ostensibly set out to explain the Syrian president’s actions. Instead, the analysis has been a mixture of befuddlement and specious arguments, highlighting why general understanding of 22 the Assad regime’s behaviour has been so lacking.

While Assad’s aides issued vague pronouncements to the media, the coterie of professional Syria watchers wrung their hands waiting to hear how Assad himself would respond to the protesters’ demands. Leading the pack was self-styled Assad confidant, academic David Lesch, who penned a concerned op-ed in the New York Times, which he led with the distressed question: “Where has President Bashar al-Assad … been this week?” “He has to LEAD,” he emphatically cried elsewhere.

When the Syrian president finally addressed the situation in a speech before parliament, the experts expressed their deep disappointment with and shock at its dismissive style and substance. Moreover, concomitant with his smug speech was Assad’s continuing brutal crackdown on the peaceful demonstrators.

The simultaneous hints about promises of potential reform, along with the use of violence and rejectionist rhetoric, perplexed analysts, leading one of them, academic Joshua Landis, to

22 conclude that the regime’s posture “shows there is real confusion in the government” on how to deal with the situation. Lesch expressed similar views.

However, this argument fails to recognise that the regime’s domestic response is the mirror image of its standard pattern of behaviour in its foreign policy. There too analysts and policymakers have grappled with the regime’s position, attempting to reconcile its alleged desire for “peace” with its unrelenting support for and use of violence.

But this decades-long approach hardly reflects “confusion” on the part of the Assad regime. Rather, it is clearly a calculated strategy, and one that has served the regime well for decades, as evident from the infamous legacy of the peace process. In fact, it is so premeditated that Assad has even coined a catchy little line to express it: “Peace and resistance form a single axis.”

23 Most analysts, especially those whose worldview is filtered through the peace process, continue to misinterpret that maxim and its repercussions. And the fallacies that hinder a sober assessment of Assad’s foreign policy similarly muddle domestic policy analysis.

For instance, Syria experts typically try to resolve the apparent paradox of Syria’s foreign policy posture by positing speculative and unverifiable divisions in the decision-making circles between supposed “hardliners” and “pragmatic reformers” representing an alleged “peace camp” that longs to be allied with the West. For years, some even questioned whether Assad was actually in control of Syria, just as today some are wondering whether the violence against protesters is the work of “rogue” security apparatuses. After all, Assad’s top aide told the press that the President had specifically ordered that no Syrian blood be shed!

These starry-eyed, bewildered justifications of the regime’s current response are due to the fact that the majority of observers hold the belief that Assad is indeed a “reformer.” Seen through this lens, Assad’s actions would indeed appear baffling. Why

23 wouldn’t this “reformist” President simply reform? This question drove the analysts to speculate feverishly about hypothetical centres of power that may have prevented him from acting on his repressed reformist impulse. In its more laughable forms, this line of thinking led some analysts to “advise” Assad to “split” with his own regime.

The common denominator here is the analysts’ penchant to insulate Assad and justify his actions, always preferring to give him a pass, so as not to cause the collapse of their own intellectual house of cards. Needless to say, Assad dispelled this nonsense in his speech, specifically ridiculing how Westerners always relay their concerns to him about the negative impact of his entourage on the “reform” process.

But analysts chose to ignore that part of the speech, preferring to stick to their own categories and misconceptions, much to Assad’s delight. After all, Assad’s peculiar genius is in sitting back and 24 letting his Western interpreters read whatever they wished into his intentions regarding peace and the relationship with the US, especially as it didn’t imply any actual commitment on his part. Meanwhile, for anyone who bothers to look closely, Assad has been rather clear that his conceptions and those of his interlocutors or of the analysts are two wildly different things.

In brief, it should now be crystal clear that the prevailing analytical paradigm is deeply flawed. This is precisely what led that anonymous US official last year to bemoan how not only does the Obama Administration “not understand Syrian intentions,” but, in fact, “[n]o one does, and until we get to that question we can never get to the root of the problem.”

In reality, the Assad regime’s behaviour and intentions are not at all perplexing, but are rather plain to see. However, that requires identifying the patterns and methods this regime has employed for decades.

Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

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An Arab revolt in Syria Anthony Manduca Times of Malta, 17 Apr. 2011,

The international community’s response to the current turmoil in the Arab world has largely focused on Libya, and this is understandable considering the particularly brutal manner in which Muammar Gaddafi has responded to a popular revolt against his regime.

This focus must continue, and hopefully increased air strikes together with a unified Nato stand, further support for the opposition, the introduction of an oil embargo on the regime, and behind-the-scenes efforts to encourage more senior members of 25 the Libyan inner circle to defect will bring about Gaddafi’s departure.

Getting rid of Gaddafi won’t be easy but I believe it can be achieved as long as there exists the political will to do so.

There is only one other Arab country whose regime is as repressive as Libya’s, and that is Syria, which is now facing its own turmoil.

Syria’s geopolitical position is more strategic than Libya’s and Damascus has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah. The country’s ethnic and religious composition could be another complication if the country dissolves into chaos.

So far, at least 200 Syrian protesters have been killed by the security forces, and President Bashar al-Assad has shown no restraint in dealing with demonstrators, nor has he introduced any significant political reforms.

25 Assad’s speech to the so-called Syrian Parliament two-and-a-half weeks ago, shortly after the troubles began, stunned his people, who were expecting a major policy change declaration. Instead, the President struck a defiant tone and claimed that “conspiracies” were behind the anti-regime protests.

Assad has so far made only a few token gestures, such as replacing his Cabinet, granting citizenship to thousands of stateless Syrian Kurds, releasing a few detainees who were arrested for protesting and, in order to appease some Muslim conservatives, lifting the ban on the full-face veil. Radwan Ziadeh, a Washington-based Syrian human rights activist, said Syrian opposition figures were in agreement on several key demands, namely a new democratic constitution, ending the state of emergency, the release of all political prisoners, a new political parties law, the reform of media laws, a new elections law, the formation of a truth and reconciliation committee to investigate past human rights abuses, the granting of full political rights to 26 Syrian Kurds and the restructuring of the security and intelligence apparatus. So far, none of these demands have been agreed to. The main characteristic of the Syrian Baathist regime is the fact that it is controlled by the Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam, who represent only about 11 per cent of the population.

It is thanks to Alawite control of the armed forces and intelligence services that the regime has managed to remain in power.

Assad’s father, President Hafez al-Assad, who died in 2000, made sure that every large army combat unit was under the command of an Alawite officer, and this practice continues today.

The Syrian army, therefore, has been tasked with keeping the ruling Alawites in power, and we should not expect the military to act on similar lines as in Egypt and Tunisia where the generals told their President it was time to move on.

If this had to happen in Syria, the Alawite sect would lose everything, unless, of course, the army had to make a deal with the

26 opposition which guaranteed some sort of influence for the Alawites, but somehow I have my doubts.

To understand how far the military and the ruling Alawites would go to maintain the status quo, one need only look at what happened in Syria’s fourth largest city, Hama, in 1982, where a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood was taking place.

Assad’s father ordered the army to brutally suppress the insurrection and consequently 20,000 people were killed. The town was first shelled with artillery and then attacked by military and special forces; one third of Hama was completely destroyed.

For the west, dealing with unrest in Syria is more complicated than revolts in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, the regime is not close to the West and therefore cannot be influenced by it. Nor is the military respected as a servant of the state rather than the ruling elite. 27 Like Libya, the regime is particularly nasty, and unlikely to go without a fight, but the country’s ethnic and religious make-up as well as its geographical location and its allies in the region are an added complication.

Comparisons have sometimes been made with Iraq, and while this is probably an exaggeration, it is worth taking into consideration what happened to Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, even though this came about as a result of a US-led invasion.

Syria is 74 per cent Sunni Muslim, 11 per cent Alawite (the ruling elite), 10 per cent Christian and five per cent Druze. It is also 90 per cent Arab and 10 per cent Kurdish and Armenian. Syria is very close to Iran and Hizbolloh in Lebanon, and one wonders how these two allies would react should Assad’s regime start to look threatened.

Robert Baer, a former CIA operative in the Middle East, wrote recently in the Financial Times: “If Hama is any guide, the potential for violence in Syria makes Libya and Yemen look mild.

27 Moreover, chances are good that chaos in Syria risks spilling into neighbouring countries – notably Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and maybe even the Arab side of the Gulf, which is already riven by sectarian divisions. This is a worst case scenario, but the point is if it comes about, there will be no way the west could just stand by and hope for the best.”

Dealing with Libya looks easy compared to how the situation in Syria could develop.

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World Bank: 'Act now' to support Mideast International monetary organizations warn region's political upheavals could throw global economic recovery off track Yedioth Ahronoth, 17 Apr. 2011, 28 The World Bank and International Monetary Fund called Saturday for urgent support for Middle East economies, warning the region's political upheavals could throw the global economic recovery off track.

"We must act now," said World Bank President Robert Zoellick at the close of the two organizations' meetings in Washington.

"Waiting for the situation to stabilize will mean lost opportunities. In revolutionary moments, the status quo is not a winning hand."

The Bank earlier warned that "a worsening of conditions in the Middle East and North Africa could derail global growth.

"If oil prices were to rise sharply and durably – either because of increased uncertainty or due to a significant disruption to oil supply – global growth could slow by between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points in 2011 and 2012, respectively," it added in a statement.

28 In the wake of the January revolt in Tunisia against a longstanding autocratic government, which sparked similar uprisings in Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Bahrain, Zoellick said the Bank agreed to support reforms in the region.

"We need a new social contract where governments listen to their people and include them in their development process," he said.

IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn pointed to the problem of a jobless recovery in the global economic revival, which is more acute as turbulence spreads across the Arab crescent -- where unemployment for youth is particularly high.

"The example of the Middle East and North Africa (highlights) this question that you may have good figures at the growth level without having the sustainability of growth, just because of the political problems behind it."

29 "We stand ready to help" with technical and financial assistance, he added.

New risks, wrenching challenges The uprisings that overthrew longtime strongmen in Tunisia and Egypt while challenging others from Libya to Syria and Yemen grabbed the focus of the world's financial technorati as they met in Washington to discuss the crucial challenges facing the global economy.

Zoellick stressed earlier in the week the impact of rising food prices on political stability in poor countries.

"We may be coming out of one crisis – the financial and economic crisis – but we are facing new risks and wrenching challenges," he said.

"Food prices were not the cause of the crises in the Middle East and North Africa, but they are an aggravating factor."

29 Chad's Finance Minister Ngata Ngoulou said his country was feeling the heat from the spillover of Libya's European- and US- backed uprising against dictator Muamman Gaddafi.

"All this has repercussions on Chad, repercussions above all negative on the economy and on our society. It weighs on our resources," he said.

Other countries "have not considered this situation," he added.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who chaired a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting on the sidelines of the World Bank- IMF meetings, called for strong support for the North African countries from governments and multilateral agencies.

She said international financial institutions need to begin assessments "in particular of those countries that have initiated a transition towards democracy." 30 "The economies of these countries are facing specific structural problems," she added.

France will boost its annual commitment to Egypt to €250 million ($360 million) from €150 million.

"If priority is to be accorded to inclusive and sustainable growth, issues of justice, security and employment, particularly in the private sector, can no longer be addressed separately," Lagarde said.

"This is also one of the lessons to be learned from the events in North Africa and the Middle East."

Lael Brainard, US Treasury under-secretary for international affairs, said the World Bank, International Finance Corp and African Development Bank together could potentially muster $4 billion for Egypt and Tunisia in the next year, to help them restart their economies.

30 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development was also positioning itself to take a lead in the effort, according to an EBRD official.

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Assad's own smuggling network commandeered for arming his opposition DEBKAfile Exclusive Report (Israeli) April 17, 2011,

Syrian troops were fanned out Sunday, April 17, along the country's borders with Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon to choke off the smuggled arms, funds and foreign agents streaming in recent weeks to the aid of the opposition whose uprising has spread to every corner of the country. Independence Day Sunday was marked by a display by the authorities of a collection of automatic 31 weapons allegedly smuggled through Iraq, as well as processions calling for the president's removal. In Homs, security forces shot dead four protesters and injured more than fifty. Some demonstrators wore shrouds proclaiming: Death is better than shame! Large sections of the Syrian economy have ground to a halt, debkafile's sources report, because 2,500 supply trucks are backed up on the Lebanese border and 3,000 trucks on the Jordanian and Iraqi frontiers for meticulous, time-consuming searches. The Syrian authorities suspect Saudi Arabia of smuggling weapons to the opposition through Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon, having commandeered the infamous Middle East smuggling ring of which the Assad regime was an organizer and key link - and which has now turned around to bite its master.

The searches of convoys have caused the Syrian economy critical damage: Imported foodstuffs and raw materials are withheld from stores and factories and exports are almost at a standstill.

31 Syria's political, business, military and intelligence elites, including the Assad family, amassed personal fortunes by creating and running those networks, whose pathways run from Sudan in the south through Sinai and Jordan up to Iraq in the east and Syria in the northwest. debkafile's military sources report that the Syrian regime was also its best customer, using the network to transfer contraband weapons to the Lebanese Hizballah, Palestinian extremists such as Hamas in the Gaza Strip and allied groups on the West Bank, and Sunni terrorists, including al Qaeda, in Iraq.

Assad and his security chiefs have now decided that Damascus' role as the smuggling hub of the Levant threatens their hold on power because Saudi Arabia has begun using three network branches for spiriting arms and financial aid to the Syrian opposition:.

32 1. Jordan: Syrian intelligence suspects Riyadh of establishing a headquarters in Amman headed by Prince Bandar bin Sultan Secretary-General of the Saudi National Security Council for aiding and arming the uprising. The town of Daraa, which leads the protest movement in southern Syria, lies athwart the only overland route linking Syria to Jordan. It is 100 kilometers from Damascus and 88 from Amman. More than 1,500 supply trucks, some from Saudi Arabia, are awaiting Syrian security checks before they can drive through. Syrian tanks and undercover forces also lie in wait for suspect traffic along the Yarmouk River which flows into Jordan. 2. Iraq: Assad suspects the Saudis of pushing into Syria arms, money and provocateurs for stirring up riots with the help of the Sunni militias of the western Iraqi province of Al-Anbar. These locals are familiar with the paths to the Syrian border hidden by the dense wooded vegetation of the Euphrates and Tigris riverbanks between Husaiba in Iraq and Abu Kamal in Syria. The latter is the center of the Shammar tribe whose lands spill over into Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

32 Since the Syrian army closed the only regular border with Iraq at Rabiyaa-Tall Kujik, another 1,500 trucks are piled up awaiting permission to pass through. 3. Lebanon: Syria has clamped its most stringent security measures on its border with Lebanon, especially the goods terminal on the Abboudiyeh border. Damascus accuses Lebanese lawmaker Jamal al-Jarrah, a member of the Mustaqbal Movement headed by Saad Hariri, the Sunni prime minister ousted by Hizballah, of running the Saudi arms and funds route for sustaining the Syrian uprising.

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Washington Post: '13 killed in Syria during protests'..

Associated Press: 'Survey: Economists see US economy improving despite events in North Africa, Middle East, Japan'..

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