Topic 0: Getting in the Mood for Macro!

Pre-Course Readings (These are the readings you should do prior to week 1.) Goal: To frame the issues of the course via a few short articles from the popular press. We will explore many of the details of these articles throughout the course.

Note: (*) indicates that a link to the reading can be found on my web page.

I. Overview of Macroeconomics

1. Size Does Matter: In Defense of Macroeconomics* (Paul Krugman: 7/9/1998) 2. Baby Sitting the Economy* (Paul Krugman: 8/13/1998)

II. 2008 Financial Crisis: The Beginning

3. Wall Street’s Bad Dream (Economist: 9/20/2008) 4. Diamond and Kashyap Primer* (Erik’s web page)

III. Sluggish Labor Market

5. U.S. Economy Weakened Years Before Crash* (Erik’s web page) 6. Why Fed Has Failed to Lower Unemployment* (Erik’s web page)

IV. New Era at The Fed

7. Summers v Yellen (Economist 8/10/2013) 8. Dove Ascendant (Economist 10/10/2013)

V. The Fiscal Cliff

9. Budget Resolves Some Fiscal Woes* (Erik’s Web Page) 10. Lew Says U.S. Ability to Borrow* (Erik’s Web Page)

VII. Macroeconomic Modeling

11. Big Questions and Big Numbers (Economist: 7/15/2006)

VIII. The State of Modern Macroeconomics

A. A Critical Overview

12. What Good Are Economists Anyway? (BusinessWeek: 4/16/2009) 13. Yes, Economics Is a Science* (Erik’Web Page) 14. The Keynesian Revolution* (Erik’s Web Page)

B. A Civil Debate

15. Stagnant Thinking (Economist 12/5/2013) 16. In Defense of the Dismal Science (by R. Lucas) (Economist: 8/8/2009) 17. Why We Need a New Macroeconomics* (Erik’s web page)

C. A Less Civil Debate

18. On Weights and Coding Errors* (Erik’s Web Page) 19. Refereeing Reinhart-Rogoff Debate* (Erik’s Web Page) 20. Reinhart and Rogoff: Responding to Our Critics* (Erik’s Web Page) 21. How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled* (Erik’s Web Page) 22. The Paranoid Style in Economics* (Erik’s Web Page)

Topic 1: Introduction to Macro Data

Chapters 1, 2, and 3.5 from Text.

I. The Difficulty in Measuring Economic Variables

A. Difficulty in Measuring Prices

23. Feeling the Heat (Economist: 6/24/2006) 24. Broda et. al.: Role of Prices in (Erik’s Web Page) Measuring Poor’s Living Standards* (attention to p. 92-96)

B. Difficulty in Measuring Output/Output Growth

25. Botox and Beancounting (Economist 4/30/2011) 26. Diagnosing Depression (Economist: 1/3/2009) 27. One Reason the Economy Looks So Weak* (Erik’s Web Page)

C. Difficulty in Measuring Unemployment

28. Where Are the Workers? (Economist 2/12/2011) 29. Wanted: More Unemployment* (Erik’s Webpage)

D. Difficulty Measuring Well Being

30. Measuring What Matters (Economist: 9/19/2009)

E. Measurement Debate in the Political Arena

31. Damn Lies and Statistics* (Erik's Webpage) 32. Argentina and the IMF: (Financial Times web page 12/14/12) Into Extra Time II. The Yield Curve

33. Dangerous Curve (Economist: 4/3/2010)

Topic 2: Production, the Labor Market and Economic Growth

Chapters 3, 6.1 and 6.3 (skim 6.2 - do not worry about the math) from Text

I. Production and Labor Markets

34. The Land of Leisure (Economist: 2/4/2006) 35. Why Employers Are Slow to Fill Jobs* (Erik’s webpage) 36. This American Life Episode # 490 (Act One) (www.thisamericanlife.org)

II. Growth in the “New” Economy II 37. Productivity on Stilts (Economist: 6/10/2000) 38. The New “New Economy” (Economist: 9/13/2003) 39. The workforce in the cloud (Economist 5/30/2013)

III. Productivity and Regulation

40. Let 50 Flowers Bloom (Economist 3/16/2013) 41. Will Obamacare Destroy Jobs? (Economist 8/24/2013)

Topic 3: Consumption, Saving, and Investment

Chapters 4.1, 4.2 and Appendix 4.A from Text

I. Consumption/Savings

42. The End of the Affair (Economist: 10/22/2008) 43. Dropping the Shopping (Economist: 7/25/2009) 44. The Nature of Wealth (Economist: 10/10/2009)

II. Investment

45. From Investment Boom to Bust (Economist: 3/3/2001) 46. Desperately Seeking a Cash Cure (Economist: 10/22/2008) 47. Trying to Calculate the Cost of Uncertainty (WSJ - Wessel, 12/5/12) Topic 4: Fiscal Policy

Chapter 15 from Text

I. Government Deficits

48. Less of a Drag (Economist: 1/7/2012) 49. Fiscal Cliffs, Multipliers, and the Myth of Central Bank Independence (Economists Blog: 5/23/2012)

II. Taxes

50. The New Voodoo* (Paul Krugman: 12/30/2010) 51. Accidental Tax Breaks Saves Wealthiest $100 Billion* (Erik’s Web Page)

III. Fiscal Policy in Action

52. The Lessons of 1937 (Economist: 6/20/2009) 53. Ugly Modeling* (Veronique de Rugy: June 2011) 54. Who Pays the Bill? (Economist 7/25/2013)

IV. Can Government Create Jobs?

55. This American Life Episode #435 (How to Create Jobs) (www.thisamericanlife.org) (Only Listen to Acts 1 and 3)

V. ObamaCare

56. New Yorkers to See 50% Drop in Health Insurance Costs* (Erik’s Web Page)

57. New Health Law Frustrates Many in Middle Class* (Erik’s Web Page)

Topic 5: Introduction into Money/Federal Reserve Policy

Chapters 7, 14.1 and 14.2 from Text

I. Monetary Basics

58. Who Needs Money (Economist: 1/22/2000) 59. Lifting the Veil at the Fed- Sort of (BusinessWeek 4/4/2011) 60. Macro control, micro problems (Economist 5/30/2013) 61. Bitcoin Under Pressure (Economist 11/30/2013) 62. The Birth of the Dollar Bill* (Erik’s Web Page)

II. Monetary Policy In Action: Part 1

63. A Blunt Tool (Economist: 6/30/2001) 64. The Doctors’ Bill (Economist: 9/27/2008)

Topic 6: Inflation and Unemployment in the Short Run (Putting it All Together)

Chapters 8-11 from Text

I. A Look at Recessions

65. The Kiss of Life? (Economist: 4/21/2001) 66. The Geography of a Recession (Economist: 2/9/2008)

II. Should We Care About Deflation?

67. Hear that Hissing Sound? (Economist: 5/17/2003) 68. The Curse of Defeatism (Economist: 11/28/2009)

III. Shifts in Aggregate Supply: Technology Shocks

69. A Thinkers' Guide (Economist: 4/1/2000)

IV. Shifts in Aggregate Supply: Oil Shocks

70. Counting the Cost (Economist: 8/27/2005) 71. A Rhetorical Blowout (Economist 5/14/2011)

V. Unemployment in This Recession

72. 2 Million ‘Open Jobs’? Yes, But U.S. Has Skills Mismatch* (NPR story) 73. Severance Pay for the Unemployed (Boston Globe web page 11/29/2012)

Topic 7: Policy Rules

Chapter 12 and 14.3 from Text

I. The Inflation/Unemployment Tradeoff

74. What Happened to the Phillips Curve* (Brad Delong) 75. Curve Ball (Economist: 9/30/2006)

II. Monetary Rules (see web page for online locations)

76. Money Rules (Economist: 10/24/1998) 77. Bitcoin Under Pressure (Economist: 11/30/2013) 78. This American Life #423 (Invention of Money) (www.thisamericanlife.org) 79. Federal Reserve Board: Remarks By Governor Edward Gramlich – 9/27/98 * (Discussion of How the Fed Makes its Monetary Policy Decisions) 80. Federal Reserve Board: Remarks By Chairman Ben Bernanke - 5/25/10 * (Central Bank Independence, Transparency, and Accountability) 81. What Goes Around (Economist: 6/9/2007) 82. What Are Central Banks Actually for? (BusinessWeek 9/3-9/2012) (A solution to central bankers’ divided loyalties) III. Putting it all Together

83. Between Bears and Hawks (Economist: 5/13/2006) 84. Anatomy of a Hump (Economist: 3/10/2007) 85. The Zero Lower Bound in Our Minds* (Erik's Web Page)

Topic 8: Special Topics

I. The 2008 Financial Crisis Revisited

86. The Financial Crisis* (Erik’s web page)

II. Inflation or Deflation?

87. Old Enemy Rears its Head (Economist: 5/24/2008) 88. Depressing Times (Economist: 11/15/2008) 89. The Price is a Blight (Economist 11/7/2013)

III. Monetary Policy In Action: Part II

90. The Hedge Fund of Foggy Bottom (Economist: 5/2/2009) 91. This Way Out (Economist: 6/6/2009) 92. Put Out (Economist: 7/4/2009) 93. Narrow Success, Broad Concerns (Economist: 9/5/2009) 94. As ‘Junk’ Bonds Fall, Some Blame Fed* (WSJ: 6/10/2011) 95. Fed Finds Elixir for Tapering* (Erik’s Web Page)

IV. Praise for Bernanke

96. The Very Model of a Modern Central Banker (Economist: 8/29/2009)

V. Quantitative Easing 2

97. The Bernanke Code (Bloomberg 11/8/2010) 98. The New Malaise and How to End It* (WSJ 11/8/2010)

V.. A New Volcker Rule

99. Hedge-trimming (Economist 12/14/2013)

Topic 9: The International Economy

Chapter 5 and 13 from Text

100. Greece in the Caribbean (Economist 10/24/2013) 101. The Eurozone: If Only it were the 1930s* (Erik’s webpage) 102. The Myth of Asia’s Miracle* (Erik’s Web Page) 103. What Explains the Industrial Revolution (Erik’s Web Page) in East Asia? Evidence from the Factor Markets*