University of Virginia Center for Politics
Sabato’s Crystal Ball The Congressional Balance of Power – What’s at Stake in the 2008 Election?
Purpose: Students will examine the majority party control of the 110th Congress and evaluate the political implications to public policy. Students will also use the Crystal Ball website to take a critical look at key House and Senate races around the country and make predictions about the outcome of Congressional elections and the potential for a shift in political party power in each house.
Objectives: 1. Students will identify current levels of party control in Congress. 2. Students will explain how the size of a party’s majority in the legislature can influence policymaking. 3. Students will predict how party control could change as a result of the 2008 election. 4. Students will analyze the current trend toward non-competitive races, particularly in the House.
Key Words: independent incumbent majority party minority party safe district swing or competitive district
Materials: 1. Student handout: Profile of the 110th Congress 2. Student handout: Predictions for the 111th Congress: House and Senate
Procedure: 1. Warm-up: Ask students to imagine that they are going to dinner with a group of 10 friends. Eight members of the group want to get chicken and the remaining two want pizza. What should the group do? Would the answer be any different if the majority was six instead of eight? What if the vote were tied at five each? Why is it a critical goal of each political party to gain and maintain the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate? What difference could the size of a Congressional majority have on decision- making at the national level [example: if one party had a very slight majority in either house]? What issues might be treated the same regardless of the majority? What might happen differently?
www.youthleadership.net 2. Activity - Profile of the 110 th Congress: Distribute the Profile of the 110th Congress handout and ask students to visit the websites http://www.c-span.org/pdf/110thcongress.pdf AND/OR http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/cong.html. Instruct students to use information gleaned from these websites to answer questions on the handout. Discuss student responses to questions on the handout. How do students think a divided Congress might influence legislation?
3. Transition/Understanding Key Concepts: Place the terms incumbent, safe district and swing district on the board or overhead. Ask students to take a few minutes to jot down what they believe that terms mean. Have several students volunteer to share their answers.
4. Activity – Predictions for the 111 th Congress: Next ask students to go to the website for Sabato’s Crystal Ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/) and use the“House”, and “Senate” sections to complete their Predictions for 111th Congress.
5. Wrap-up: Ask students how they felt about making their predictions. Was this an easy task? What additional information might have made it easier to predict the election?
Extension Activities: 1. Revisit the Crystal Ball website each week with your students, or have them keep an Election Log. Students may record changes in their predictions as Election Day draws closer. 2. Have a class contest to see which student can best predict the total number of seats in the House and Senate that will be won by the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Call (toll-free, 866.514.8389) or email ([email protected]) YLI if you want to sponsor a Crystal Ball contest and we will be happy to send you small prizes for student winners.
www.youthleadership.net PROFILE OF THE 110TH CONGRESS
Use the websites below to help you fill in the boxes. http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/cong.html http://www.c-span.org/pdf/110thcongress.pdf
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE
______Total Members ______Total Members
______Republicans ______Republicans
______Democrats ______Democrats
______Independents ______Independents
______Vacancies ______Majority Party
______Majority Party ______Margin of Majority (# of majority party seats – number of minority ______Margin of Majority (# of majority party seats = margin party seats – number of minority party seats = margin)
QUESTIONS
1. In which house of Congress is there the smallest majority?
2. How many seats are necessary for a party to have a majority in the House? How many are necessary in the Senate?
3. How might a small majority impact the way Congress creates and passes legislation?
4. Given the current make-up of Congress, if one of the two major political parties wanted to gain a majority in both houses, which party would have an easier job? Explain your answer.
5. Looking at the information above, how could an Independent member of Congress impact the balance of power in policy-making?
www.youthleadership.net PREDICTIONS FOR THE 111TH CONGRESS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Use the Crystal Ball website listed below to help you finish this section: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/house/
House Score Card: Seats appearing safe or likely:
Total Races = Democrats = Magic Number = Republicans =
Total of ALL House Seats: Highly competitive seats leaning:
Democrat = Democrat = Republican = Republican = Toss-ups = Toss-ups =
QUESTIONS: Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the House of Representatives:
1. How likely is it that Democrats will retain control of the House? Explain.
2. According to the Crystal Ball, why has there been a dramatic decline in the number of swing or truly competitive districts in recent years?
3. Using the Crystal Ball, identify your Top 5 Hot House Races to Watch and defend your choices (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/house/?view). (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)
4. Gaze into the Crystal Ball and make a few predictions of your own
I predict that the ______party will control the House after the 2008 election because…
www.youthleadership.net PREDICTIONS FOR THE 111TH CONGRESS
SENATE / Use the Crystal Ball websites listed below to help you finish this section: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/senate/
Senate Score Card: Seats appearing safe or likely:
Total Races = Democrats = Dem. Incumbents = Republicans = Rep. Incumbents =
Totals for ALL Senate Seats: (including seats not up for reelection) Highly competitive seats leaning:
Democrat = Democrat = Republican = Republican = Toss-ups = Toss-ups =
QUESTIONS: Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Senate:
1. How likely is it that Democrats and Republicans will remain tied in the Senate? Explain.
2. According to the Crystal Ball, what are three factors that could influence which party controls the Senate following November’s election? QUESTIONS
3. 1.UsingSabato’s the Crystal Crystal Ball andidentify the House your ofTop Representatives: 5 Hot Senate Races to Watch and defend each choice 1. How(http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/senate/?view) likely is it that Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives?. Why? 2. According(I) to the Crystal Ball, why has there been a dramatic decline in the number of swing or truly competitive(II) districts in recent years? 3. Using(III) the Crystal Ball’s Dirty Thirty, identify your Top 5 Crucial House Races to Watch and defend your choices(IV) (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/house/?view) (V) 2. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the U.S. Senate: How likely is it that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate? Why? 4. Gaze intoWhat the would Crystal have Ball to happen and make for the a fewDemocrats predictions to win of control your ownof the Senate? According to the Crystal Ball, what is the greatest numberI predict of Senatethat the seats the Republicans could hope to win? ______3. According the “The Brutalparty B”will (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/brutalb.htm) control the Senate after the what are three of the factors that2008 could election influence because… the 2002 elections, especially in the House? I predict that the ______party will control the www.youthleadership.net Senate after the 2002 election because… 4. Gaze into the Crystal Ball and make a few predictions of your own