Making Predictions Using Real-World Data

Algebra I CP Group Project: Modeling Real-World Data

In this project you and a partner will be researching real-world data, creating a scatter plot from the data, finding the equation of the line of best-fit, using the equation to make predictions about the future, and analyzing your predictions. Be sure to follow the steps below and pay careful attention to the rubric to meet all minimum requirements.

The Process:

□ Using the Internet, go to google.com/publicdata and click on “Explore the data.” Select a topic that interests you and compares data over a period of time. Before you proceed, be sure the graph closely resembles a line (linear). If it doesn’t, select another topic. Next, record at least 10 different data points in your table. You will need to mouse-over each point to view the data. If you’re having difficult finding a linear relationship, under “Environment,” scroll down to “Population” and then select a country, state, county, or city.

□ Create a scatter plot that represents the data using Microsoft Excel. (Hint: adjust the scales on your axes to smaller numbers. For example, if two of my data points are (1986, 2500000) and (2000, 2950000), for the x-axis I might say: “let 1980 = year 0,” and for the y-axis I might adjust the numbers to 2.5 and 2.95 and make note on my axis’s label that the numbers are “in millions.” Thus, my adjusted data would be (6, 2.5) and (20, 2.95). This will give you smaller numbers with which to work during your calculations.)

□ Showing all work, calculate the equation of the line of best-fit that models the data and compare it to the equation given by Excel.

□ Use Excel’s equation of the line of best-fit to predict what will happen in the years 2015, 2020, and 2050.

□ Answer the questions regarding your data. How will I be graded?

Collecting the data I’ve indicated what data I’ve collected. I’ve chosen data that closely resembles a linear model. ( r 2 . 70 ) I’ve used at least 10 data points.

The scatter plot The scatter plot is full size. The scatter plot has the following information: -a title -appropriate scales on both axes -both axes are labeled -trendline, and -equation of the trendline with the r 2 value.

The equation of the line of best-fit I’ve shown the two points used to calculate the equation of the line. I’ve shown all work for calculating the line I’ve put my equation in slope-intercept form. I’ve compared my equation to that of Excel’s.

My predictions I’ve used Excel’s equation to calculate my predictions. I’ve shown all work in calculating my predictions for the given years.

My analysis of the predictions I’ve answered the questions being asked using correct grammar, spelling, and punctuation, and my answers are thoughtful and complete including reasons on why I answered the way I did. Name: ______Due Date: ______Period: _____

Algebra I CP Group Project: Modeling Real-World Data

MY DATA

The data I collected shows ______

______.

YEAR LINE OF BEST-FIT EQUATION

To calculate the line of best-fit, I used the following two points from the line: ( ______, ______) and ( ______, ______) Below is all of my work for calculating the equation of the line.

My equation in slope-intercept form: ______

Excel’s equation rounding to the nearest hundredth: ______

MY PREDICTIONS

Based on Excel’s equation, in the year 2015 ______

______.

My work:

In the year 2020 ______

______.

My work:

In the year 2050 ______

______.

My work: MY ANALYSIS

1) Explain the reason(s) for differences between the equation I calculated for the line of best-fit and the equation given by Excel.

2) Do I feel that my predictions will be true for the years 2015, 2020, and 2050; why or why not?

3) Why might these predictions be useful and to whom? Explain.

4) If I could do this project again, what data might I choose to look at instead? Why? Names: ______Date: ______Period: _____ Scoring Rubric: Modeling Real-World Data

PROJECT SUBMISSION ____ / 2 My project included all necessary components. -data, scatterplot, equations/predictions, analysis

DATA ____ / 5 -indicated the data I collected (1) -data represents a linear model (1) -chose at least 10 data points (3)

SCATTER PLOT ____ / 9 -large enough to be easily read (1) -includes required info (8)

EQUATION ____ / 9 -all work for equation is shown (8) -Excel’s equation is shown with correct rounding (1)

PREDICTIONS ____ / 10 -used Excel’s equation (1) -predictions are correct (3) -work is shown (6)

ANALYSIS ____ / 10 -correct grammar, spelling, punctuation (2) -answers are thoughtful and complete (8)

TOTAL SCORE ____ / 45

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