VAAC Tokyo Management Report

IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34 International Civil Aviation Organization 9/7/08

WORKING PAPER

INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG)

FOURTH MEETING

Paris, France, 15 to 19 September 2008

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVWOPSG 5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW Management Report

VAAC TOKYO MANAGEMENT REPORT

(Presented by Japan)

SUMMARY Pursuant to Conclusion 1/2 of the IAVWOPSG/1 Meeting, VAAC Provider States were invited to provide a concise IAVW management report to be presented at every IAVWOPSG meeting covering the period elapsed since the previous meeting and addressing the main features of the IAVW operations, highlighting any recent developments and difficulties and future planned developments. The report prepared by Japan is attached for the group’s review and consideration.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 In this period, 17 months from January 2007 to May 2008, Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo issued 919 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) to Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs) in the VAAC Tokyo area of responsibility (Figure 1). In spite of some significant volcanic activities in volcanoes in Kamchatka, serious aircraft accident due to volcanic ash was not reported in this period.

1.2 New VAAC Tokyo website has been available since June 2007. Latest VAAs can be referred directly from links on the top page at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/. Recent VAAs, Volcanic Ash Graphics (VAGs) and satellite imagery are also available.

(6 pages) 05bcb9d3bb1e9bffab8eef4ed20b9497.doc 2 IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1 VAAC Tokyo is operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and locates in the headquarters building of JMA in Tokyo. Staff members of the Seismological and Volcanological Department of JMA are engaged in the operation of VAAC Tokyo.

2.2 VAAC Tokyo is responsible for monitoring volcanoes and issuing VAAs in eastern Asia and northern Pacific area as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 VAAC Tokyo area of responsibility

2.3 In this period, some significant eruptions were observed in Kamchatka, Russia. However, no significant aircraft encounter was reported.

3. OPERATION OF VAAC TOKYO

4. Issuance of volcanic ash advisories

4.1.1 VAAC Tokyo issued 919 VAAs for ten volcanoes in the area of responsibility in this period. Among them 845 were issued in 2007, double the number in 2006. Most frequent issuance of VAAs in this period was in May and June of 2007; 178 VAAs were issued each month, mainly for Kliuchevskoi volcano in Kamchatka.

4.1.2 More than 82 percent of them were issued in connection with the activity of six volcanoes in Kamchatka and Kurile Islands, Russia. The rest of VAAs were issued for three volcanoes in Japan, except for two VAAs issued for one volcano in the Philippines.

4.1.3 The number of VAAs in this period is shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. 3 IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34

2007 2008 TOTAL Volcano Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Avachinsky 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Bezymianny 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 Chikurachiki-Tararino 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Karymsky 2 2 3 17 0 13 13 12 29 36 1 0 0 0 4 1 5 138 Kliuchevskoi 0 5 0 16 147 137 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 374 Sheveluch 27 16 12 48 14 14 7 28 3 14 12 13 4 0 0 0 3 215 Miyakejima 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 Sakurajima 1 3 1 0 15 14 0 1 0 3 0 2 2 6 0 14 26 88 Suwanosejima 4 13 6 4 2 0 1 1 1 7 6 18 0 5 1 1 0 70 Bulusan 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 TOTAL 34 39 22 89 178 178 91 49 41 71 19 34 7 11 5 16 35 919

Table 1 Monthly number of VAAs issued by VAAC Tokyo from January 2007 to May 2008

Volcano Number of VAAs issued

Avachinsky 1 Bezymianny 12 Chikurachiki 18 Karymsky 138 Kliuchevskoi 374 Sheveluch 215 Miyakejima 1 Sakurajima 88 Suwanosejima 70 Bulusan 2

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Figure 2 Total number of VAAs issued by VAAC Tokyo from January 2007 to May 2008 4 IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34

4.1.4 Volcanoes for which VAAs were issued in this period

a) Avachinsky (Russia, 1 VAA) ―Only one case of eruption was reported in this period and one VAA was issued on 9 May 2008 for that event.

b) Bezymianny (Russia, 12 VAAs) ― Since significant eruptions in December 2006, it had been relatively inactive. On 14 Oct 2007 it erupted again and ash reached 30,000ft.

c) Chikurachiki-Tatarino (Russia, 18 VAAs) ― Though it had been dormant in 2006, it erupted on 4 April 2007 with ash height of 14,000ft. It also made some small eruptions in August and September 2007.

d) Karymsky (Russia, 138 VAAs) ― It has been continuously active and erupted intermittently. On the eruption on 11 July 2007, it emitted ash column reaching 30,000ft.

e) Kliuchevskoi (Russia, 374 VAAs) ― On 5 February 2007, it started to erupt and volcanic ash reached at the height of 20,000ft. VAAC Tokyo issued five VAAs for this activity.

Since the eruption on 26 April 2007, the activity of the volcano had been increasing. Continuous eruptions had been observed from 10 May till 11 July, for almost two months. Volcanic ash reached at 33,000ft at a maximum. Volcanic ash covered almost all area of Kamchatka peninsula, approximately as wide as 700,000 square kilometers, and extended to Alaska region. Among 374 VAAs for this volcano, 76 percent (284 VAAs) were issued in May and June of 2007. After 17 July 2007, the volcano has been dormant.

f) Sheveluch (Russia, 215 VAAs) ― Since the eruption on 4 Dec 2006, it had erupted intermittently. Eruption on 12 April 2007 carried ash to the height of 20,000ft. No volcanic ash has been observed on satellite imagery since 11 July 2007.

g) Miyakejima (Japan, 1 VAA) ― Small eruption was observed on 6 January 2008, emitted ash height of 4,000ft, and a VAA for this event was issued. That was the only VAA for this volcano in this period.

h) Sakurajima (Japan, 88 VAAs) ― Among 40 VAAs for this volcano in 2007, 29 were issued in May and June. Only in one case, volcanic ash from the volcano was observed on satellite imagery.

In 2008 the volcano has been relatively more active than in 2007. Among 48 VAAs for this volcano in 2008, 40 VAAs were issued in April and May.

i) Suwanosejima (Japan, 70 VAAs) ― Some small eruptions were reported and relevant VAAs were issued. Volcanic ash clouds from this volcano were not so high that they were not identified on satellite imagery in this period. 5 IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34

j) Bulusan (Philippines, 2 VAAs) ― One VAA was issued on 31 July 2007, and the other was 3 October 2007. Neither of them included any observed ash cloud on satellite imagery.

5. Significant operations or technical changes

5.1.1 Volcanic activity reports from the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), the Kamchatkan Experimental & Methodical Seismological Department (KEMSD) and the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) have made great continuous contributions to the timely issuance of VAAs by VAAC Tokyo, especially when satellite images could not identify small- scale eruptions.

5.1.2 To ensure an emergency response between SVERT, VAAC Tokyo and other relevant organizations, VAAC Tokyo participated in the SVERT communication test for an assumed eruption in the Kurile Islands on 31 October 2007 with the coordination by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). In the communication test, VAAC Tokyo received a test SIGMET from Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, and a test VAA was issued and successfully transmitted to VAAC Anchorage and VAAC Washington.

5.1.3 As mentioned in 3.2 e), ash clouds from Kliuchevskoi extended out of area of responsibility of VAAC Tokyo and went into the area of VAAC Anchorage and/or VAAC Washington for several times. VAAC Tokyo has successfully transferred the responsibility of issuance of VAAs for such volcanic ash clouds in accordance with the liaison procedure of handover described in the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (Doc 9766).

5.1.4 The ash dispersion simulation used in VAAC Tokyo is based on the JMA’s Numerical Weather Prediction Models. One of them named GSM (Global Spectral Model) was improved in November 2007. As the number of vertical level was increased from 40 to 60, the accuracy of ash forecast in Kamchatka region has been improved.

5.1.5 VAAC Tokyo has also upgraded its website. It has been available since June 2007. In the new website, recent VAAs and VAGs, as well as relevant satellite (MTSAT) images in infrared, visible and split band, are available. Previously issued VAAs are also accessible. The URL of the website is http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/.

5.1.6 VAAC back-up operation

5.1.7 The VAAC Tokyo has duplicated system for issuance of VAAs in case of any trouble or maintenance.

5.1.8 In addition, a back-up procedure is going to be organized between two VAACs of Darwin and Tokyo, where mutual backup operation will be made in case of interruption of either VAAC's operation. On this issue the staff members of VAAC Tokyo made a discussion with that of VAAC Darwin in November 2007, confirming that there’s no significant problem on both sides. VAAC Darwin and VAAC Tokyo exchanged letters on mutual backup arrangements in June 2008.

5.1.9 No back-up operation was carried out during this period.

5.1.10 No back-up test was carried out during this period. 6 IAVWOPSG/4-WP/34

6. IAVW IMPLEMENTATIONS ISSUE

6.1 Format of VAAs by VAAC Tokyo has been modified since 23 May 2008 in accordance with the Amendment 74 of ICAO Annex 3.

6.2 VAGs in PNG format have been available on VAAC Tokyo website since March 2008.

7. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

7.1 VAAC Tokyo will make further discussion with VAAC Darwin on mutual-backup issue.

7.2 JMA started issuing Volcanic Forecasts and Warnings for domestic active volcanoes from December 2007. They are issued in relation to expected volcanic disasters on areas near the volcanoes. VAAC Tokyo will apply aviation colour code in coordination with them as well as volcanic activity reports from relevant volcanic observatories.

8. ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG

The IAVWOPSG is invited to note the information in this paper.

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