DCCC Political Meeting Memo
To: Rep. Denny Heck From: DCCC Southern Political Director – Andrew Piatt (cell: 817-368-6523, email: [email protected]) Date: February 27, 2016 RE: Meeting with Orlando Mayor Buddy Deyer (FL-07)
Purpose of the Meeting:
Thank you for meeting Orlando Mayor Buddy Deyer. He is the most prominent Democrat in central Florida, a popular Mayor and has a moderate brand. Please brief him on our great pickup opportunity in FL-07 by the numbers, solicit his counsel on the lay of the land and potential recruits.
Talking Points:
Please tell Mayor Dyer that the DCCC is excited about the movement of lines in Orlando and he should have three local Democratic members to work with after the election in 2016. The most exciting district in Orlando and all of Florida is FL-07.
Please tell Dyer that the excitement on paper and in D.C. doesn’t appear to have reached the political class in Orlando. Please ask him to help us highlight this great opportunity to pick up a seat.
Please let Dyer know that this is now a 50/50 district and is frankly the most competitive Congressional district in the state of Florida. President Obama received 50.2% of the vote in 2012 and 51.5% in 2008. We can win here.
Please tell Dyer that the DCCC believes we have enough time to mount his successful campaign because Mica has grown complacent over the years and doesn’t raise much money. Mica only raised $50,000 in Q3 and a little more than $100,000 in Q4. He has approximately $550,000 on hand. This is a gap we can easily close.
Please stress that Mica has never had a competitive general election and is not in fighting shape. He has blind spots in his political profile for the new district which is far more diverse and Democratic (changes described in background below).
Please tell Dyer that the DCCC is serious about recruiting a strong candidate in this pickup opportunity, which is why we are talking to him. Please ask Mayor Dyer for his thoughts on Patrick Chapin and if he has any other ideas for recruits.
Background:
1 Here are the new stats:
PERFORMANCE o DPI = 50.8% o 2012 Obama = 50.0% o 2008 Obama = 51.6% o 2012 Senate 57.1% o 2014 Gov = 49.1% o 2010 Gov = 49.5%
GEOGRAPHY o Seminole County 59% of Reg voters o Orange County 41% of Reg voters o City of Orlando 32% of reg voters o 26% of the registered voters were not in FL-07 prior to redistricting
DEMOS o Hispanic = 18.2% of census voting age population (primarily Puerto Rican) o African American = 9.4% of census voting age population o Under 30 = 28.0% of total population
Bill Phillips got in the race in Q4 and did not raise sufficient funds to mount a successful campaign. He withdrew his candidacy early this week.
The newly redrawn FL-07 now contains the eastern part of Orlando and its suburbs to the east and north of the city. Its major population centers are Orlando, Sanford, and Altamonte Springs.
Compared to the old district, the new seat gained the territory of eastern Orlando and Sanford, but lost Deltona and Orange City to the new FL-06.
The new seat is also more diverse. The African American voting age population increased 1.5 points compared to the old district and the Hispanic voting age population increased 2.7 points.
Biography:
John Hugh "Buddy" Dyer (born August 7, 1958) is the 32nd and current mayor of Orlando, Florida, first elected in 2003. He is a member of the United States Democratic Party. Previously he represented Orlando in the Florida State Senate for ten years, including three years when he was the Senate Democratic leader.
Dyer was born in 1958 in Orlando. He grew up in nearby Kissimmee, and graduated from Osceola High School there. He began his political career after serving as an attorney and lawyer following his graduations from Brown University and the University of Florida College of Law.
Dyer's first run for political office was in 1992 for Florida's State Senate district 14, which consisted of Orlando and Sanford, Florida. Dyer had two Democratic primary opponents, Candice "Candy" Crawford (sister of former Florida Agriculture Commissioner Bob Crawford and political pundit Craig Crawford) and 2 Tim Adams, a local business owner. Dyer won the primary, but failed to get the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. Dyer received 44% of the vote, while Crawford received 39%. Adams received 17% and was eliminated. The runoff between Dyer and Crawford was concentrated in Orlando's African-American communities. Dyer received the support of many of the local churches as well as the endorsement of Tim Adams and Dotti Wynn (loser of the district's Republican primary), while Crawford relied on State Representative Alzo Reddick. Dyer won the runoff 54% to 44%. He continued on to the general election where he faced Republican Steve DeMino which he won with 56% of the vote.
He was subsequently re-elected in 1996 and 2000,serving a total of ten years in the State Senate, where he was State Senate Democratic leader for three years. In 2002 he ran for the office of state attorney general, losing to Republican Charlie Crist.
Dyer was elected the 32nd mayor of Orlando on February 25, 2003, in a special election after the previous mayor, Glenda Hood, was appointed Florida's Secretary of State. He was re-elected in 2004 in a regular election, narrowly avoiding a runoff with challenger Ken Mulvaney. He won re-election again on January 29, 2008, receiving 61% of the vote over challenger Mulvaney. Buddy Dyer was once again re-elected mayor in November 2015 with 62.5% of the vote for his fourth full term in office.
FL-07 DISTRICT SUMMARY
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