Cheshire West and Chester 2013

Cheshire West and Chester 2013 Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Executive Summary July 2013 Introduction The 2013 Cheshire West and Chester Strategic Housing Market Assessment is a major research study which will help to shape the future planning and housing policies of the area. The research will help inform the production of the local authority new local plan and Housing Strategies. This research provides an up-to-date analysis of the social, economic, housing and demographic situation across the area. The study has been carried out by arc4 Ltd and has included:  A major household survey which was completed by 10,483 households, representing a 19.6% response rate;  Interviews with stakeholders; and  A review of existing data. The findings from the study will provide a robust and defensible evidence base for future policy development which conforms to the Government’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment guidance.

Housing market context

House prices Median house prices across Cheshire West and Chester have increased dramatically over the period 2000 to 2012, from around £74,650 in 2000 to £157,750 in 2012, representing an increase of 111.3%. Variations in house prices across Cheshire West and Chester are illustrated in Map 1.

Dwelling stock According to the 2011 census there were a total of 147,568 dwellings across Cheshire West and Chester and a total of 141,142 households. Overall, across Cheshire West and Chester: 75.3% of properties are houses, 12.6% are flats/maisonettes 11.1% bungalows, and 1.0% are other property types (e.g. caravans); A majority of properties (70.1%) have been built since 1945 (with 49.7% built since 1965), a further 15.3% were built before 1919 and the remainder (14.6%) built between 1919 and 1945; 70.8% of properties are owner-occupied, 15.5% are affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure) and 13.7% are privately rented. This compares with regional figures of 64.5% for owner occupation, 18.8% affordable tenures and 16.7% private renting; Map 1 Median house prices in Cheshire West and Chester 2012-12

Source: Land Registry Price Paid Data 1 Feb 2012 to 25 March 2013

Demographic drivers Population forecasts prepared by the Council indicate that the population of Cheshire West and Chester is set to increase from 329,600 in 2010 to 363,500 by 2030, an increase of 33,900 or 10%. Over the next few decades, there will be a ‘demographic shift’ with the number (and proportion) of older people increasing. Over the period 2010 to 2030 the number of residents of pensionable age and over is expected to increase from 71,800 to 108,000 (or by 50.4%). The number aged 75 and over is expected to increase by 79.6% (from 28,000 in 2010 to 50,300 by 2030)

Economic drivers 70.2% of residents 16 to 64 are economically active according to the 2011 Census which is slightly higher than the regional average of 67.8%. Unemployment in 2011 was 3.7%, compared with 4.7% regionally1. 64.7% of employees work within Cheshire West and Chester and 35.3% commute to other areas, most notably to elsewhere in Cheshire (12.4%), Greater Manchester (5.5%), the Wirral (4.1%) and Wrexham/Flintshire (4.1%). Across Cheshire West and Chester, 30.6% of households have a gross income for the head of household and partner (if applicable) of less than £300 each week, 21.6% receive between £300 and £500 each week and 47.9% receive at least £500 each week.

Market areas Cheshire West and Chester is a largely self-contained housing market area. In terms of household mobility, of households moving in the past 5 years 65.7% originated within Cheshire West and Chester and 34.3% originated from outside the area. Although this is below the 70% figure suggested by CLG, it is only marginally below and as such, Cheshire West is an appropriate geography for planning purposes over which to assess and meet housing requirements. It is also noted that of the households that intend to move over the next five years, over 70% intend to remain in Cheshire West and Chester (see paragraph 3.31. A majority of residents also live and work in the Borough, with 64.7% working within Cheshire West and Chester and 35.9% working elsewhere, particularly Cheshire East, Greater Manchester, Wirral, Wrexham and Flintshire

Housing need and affordable housing Housing need is defined as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. A key element of the study is to explore the scale of housing need and the extent to which additional affordable housing is needed. Affordable housing is defined as either social/affordable rented or intermediate housing which is provided and made available to eligible households (i.e. those who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing) who cannot afford to meet their needs through the market. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rents, but below market prices or rents. The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the annual need from existing and newly-forming households within each sub-area and comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure dwellings). The overall net shortfall is 714 affordable dwellings across Cheshire West and Chester each year. This figure is a measure of the extent to which the requirement for affordable housing is greater than the current supply. These figures should be viewed as an indication of the degree of imbalance which exists between affordable provision and need. They are not targets for delivery as the figures are based the CLG model which adopts a range of parameters and

1 ONS 2011 Census assumptions which are discussed in detail in the main report. Evidence clearly identifies a shortfall in affordable provision (Table ES1) but the actual delivery will be subject to matters including the economic viability of delivery and the ability of Registered Providers to fund the development of additional affordable dwellings.

Table ES1 Recommendation for annual affordable housing delivery by property size and designation 2013/14 to 2017/18 Sub-area Age and no. beds Total Under 65 65+ 1 Bed 2 Beds 3+Beds 1 Bed 2 Beds 3+ Beds Chester Urban Area 94 0 23 38 0 0 155 Chester Villages 6 4 4 0 3 0 17 Cuddington and Sandiway 5 0 1 1 0 0 7 Ellesmere Port Urban Area 78 0 0 32 0 0 110 Farndon 5 0 5 5 0 0 15 Frodsham 18 0 5 3 7 0 33 Helsby 5 4 0 1 0 0 10 Malpas 6 5 0 3 0 0 14 Neston 13 0 3 14 0 0 30 Northwich Urban Area 96 0 12 26 1 1 136 Rural East 13 9 0 6 0 0 28 Rural North 10 23 0 5 0 0 38 Tarporley 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 Tarvin and Kelsall 4 0 4 4 0 0 12 Tattenhall 5 2 1 7 0 0 15 Winsford Urban Area 47 17 0 24 0 0 88 Total 411 64 58 169 11 1 714 % 57.6 9.0 8.1 23.7 1.5 0.1 100.0

In terms of the split between social rented and intermediate tenure products, the household survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming households. This suggests a tenure split of 67.3% affordable rent and 32.7% intermediate tenure based on household preferences.

Market demand Households intending to move in the open market were asked what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. Of households intending to move, most would like to move to a house (75.2%), 6.6% would like to move to a flat and 18.1% to a bungalow. This compares with 76.7% who expect to move to a house, 9.6% to a flat and 13.7% to a bungalow. A much higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (50.8%) but 30.8% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (32.7%) than would prefer to (19.8%). In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a property with two (32.4%), three (42.4%) or four or more (20.7%) bedrooms. A higher proportion of households would like a property with four or more bedrooms (31.3%). Analysis of newly-forming households who have formed in the past five years indicates that they have mainly moved into flat/apartments, terraced houses/town houses and semi-detached houses. 20.9% moved into a one bedroom property, 44.9% a two bedroom, 28.7% a three bedroom and 5.6% into a property with four or more bedrooms.

Older people and adaptations Addressing the accommodation requirements of older people is going to become a major strategic challenge for the Council over the next few decades, with the number of residents aged 65 or over expected to increase dramatically. There is a degree of interest in a variety of older persons’ accommodation, with 22.6% interested in buying on the open market, 15.8% interested in renting sheltered accommodation, 11.3% renting extra care accommodation; a further 10.3% would consider renting from a housing association. This evidence suggests a need to continue to diversify the range of older persons’ housing provision. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.