Agricultural Production Trends and the Future

Mexico Institute

Agricultural Production Trends and the Future Of the Trans-boundary Río Grande/Río Bravo Basin

May 20 and 21, 2004

Hyatt Regency Riverwalk San Antonio, Texas

© David Lauer Over the last decade, water management and allocation in the trans-boundary Río Grande/Río Bravo basin has moved from the province of a few technical and legal specialists to a prominent spot on the U.S./Mexico binational agenda, generating regular front page stories in both countries. The use of the Río Grande for agricultural irrigation lies at the heart of the current controversy: irrigation accounts for 80 to 90% of total surface water withdrawals.

Three major water-consuming crops dominate the picture. In the Río Conchos, the main Mexican tributary to the Río Grande, the two primary irrigated crops are pecans and alfalfa (which is grown to supply northern Mexico's burgeoning dairy industry). In the Lower Río Grande Valley of Texas, one of the primary irrigated crops is sugar cane.

How much of these three crops will likely be grown in the future—and how they are irrigated—will be an enormously important factor in determining whether the U.S. and Mexico can develop a sustainable management system for the shared waters of the Río Grande. Unfortunately, there is not yet a clear picture of how various forces—including crop prices, trade agreements, government subsidies and industry production process changes—will influence cropping patterns for alfalfa, pecans and sugar cane over the next two decades. Moreover, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how these crops are currently irrigated, what role water pricing plays in economic decisions about what crops to grow and how much room for efficiency improvement might exist.

Another important issue to consider in analyzing crop production trends is market access: for example, does the lack of a well-developed commercialization process and distribution network affect the profitability of a given crop or reduce the possibility of crop substitution? Other questions include: What roles do the government and the private sector play in crop substitution and the commercialization process, and what roles could they play? Given these factors, what other crops, preferably with lower water demand, might be attractive substitutes for alfalfa, pecans and sugar? Alternatively, what do growers need in terms of technical and financial assistance for water conservation?

This one and a half-day conference is designed to answer these and related questions. Sponsored by the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center and Environmental Defense, it will bring together agricultural experts from Texas and Mexico who have already begun looking at some of these issues and a small contingent of key governmental and non-governmental players. The conference will result in a summary and proceedings that will be distributed to high-level policymakers in both countries, providing critical information for the governments' ongoing effort to develop a sustainable water management framework for the Río Grande.

Day One: Thursday, May 20th

9:00 to 9:30 Welcome, Introductions and Purpose of Conference: Mexico Institute and Environmental Defense

9:30 to 10:00 Background/Overview (Summary of white paper—this paper, prepared by Environmental Defense in consultation with various experts will cover what we know is happening now: how much and where the three crops are being produced, general trends over the past decade and general figures re: water use), with Q&A

10:30 to 12:30 Panel 1: Projected Trends in three major crops (w/Q&A)

Projected Dairy Industry Trends in Mexico, Dr. Adolfo Alvarez Macias, Investigator, UAM

Projected Sugar Industry Trends in the United States, Andy Schmitz, University of Florida, International Agriculture and Trade Policy Center

Projected Pecan Production Trends in Mexico, Arturo Puente Gonzalez, Independent Consultant

12:30 to 2:00 p.m. Lunch—Lunch Speech—Roberto Newell, President, Instituto Mexicano de la Competitividad

2:00 to 5:00 Panel 2: Adjustment Policies (with 20 min. break)

(Exploring options for helping farmers adjust to trends, while reducing agricultural water use: topics would include conversion to higher value agricultural products, credit needs, conservation financing, etc. This panel will include a distinct focus on market access; commercialization and distribution issues).  Dr. Joe Outlaw, Co-Director, Agriculture and Food Policy Center, Texas A&M  Mexico: Lic. Ernesto Cervera Gómez, GEA  Dr. Yunez-Naude, Professor, Colegio de México

DAY TWO, Friday, May 21 st .

9:00 a.m. – 9:30 Reconvene and summarize results of Day one

9:30 to 11:00 Role of the Government

(Exploring government assistance programs re: crop substitution, distribution networks, technical assistance, conservation funding, water use efficiency improvements)

 Dr. Jesus Moncada de la Fuente, Director General, INIFAP  Raul Rodriguez, General Manager, North American Development Bank  Katherine Smith, Director, Resource Economics Division ERS/USDA  Texas agricultural representative

11:00 to 11:15 BREAK

11:15 to noon: Wrap-Up: Identify findings/conclusions/recommendations to be included in final proceedings.