The Latinobarómetro Poll the Democracy Dividend

The Latinobarómetro poll

The democracy dividend Dec 7th 2006 From The Economist print edition

Latin Americans are less dissatisfied, but building effective democracies in the region remains a long haul

THEY are a bit keener on democracy, more optimistic about the economy and Latin Americans dislike George Bush and Hugo Chávez in equal measure. Those are some of the conclusions suggested by the latest Latinobarómetro poll taken in 18 countries across the region and published exclusively by The Economist. Because the poll has been taken regularly since 1995, it tracks changes in public attitudes in the region. The picture that emerges from this year's survey is one that is modestly encouraging for democrats.

Three years of economic growth averaging around 4.5% and a plethora of elections in the region over the past 13 months have provided a democracy dividend. Overall, 58% of respondents this year agreed that democracy was the best system of government, up by five percentage points from last year. That is still five points down on the peak in 1997, but it follows three years in which the headline figure remained static.

Ten countries saw increases in support for democracy of seven percentage points or more, but there were big falls in Venezuela and El Salvador (see table 1). Support for authoritarian government was high in Guatemala (where it rose) and in Paraguay (where it fell sharply). Support for democracy is below average in Brazil and Mexico, the region's two giants (see chart 2). Only 38% of respondents said they were satisfied with their democracies, but that is a seven- point increase on last year (chart 3).

The poll casts an interesting light on the recent elections. Over the past ten years there has been a big rise in satisfaction with democracy in Venezuela, Chile, Mexico and Brazil. In each of those countries, incumbent presidents or parties won. But there have been big falls over the past decade in satisfaction with democracy in Peru, Ecuador and Paraguay. The survey shows clearly that the two sets of issues uppermost in voters' minds were unemployment and poverty on the one hand, and crime and public security on the other. In Colombia, Venezuela and much of Central America, crime came top of the list. So it did too in Argentina—a backhanded compliment to the vigour of the country's recovery from its economic collapse of 2001-02. Elsewhere, economic worries prevailed. That is part of the explanation for the shift to the left over the past few years. But that shift is modest and not ubiquitous (see chart 4). Mexicans, for example, have moved to the right. Venezuelans may like their left-wing president, Hugo Chávez, but only a quarter of respondents there saw themselves as being on the left.

There is no reason to believe that voters saw elections as a referendum on George Bush or on Hugo Chávez. After Fidel Castro, Mr Chávez is the best-known Latin American leader across the region as a whole (although 29% of respondents had not heard of him). But he is just as unpopular as George Bush: of those who had heard of Mr Chávez 28% approved while 39% disapproved of him.

Some 49% of respondents thought that elections in their country were fraudulent. That was down from 54% last year but still troubling. According to Marta Lagos, Latinobarómetro's director, that perception reflects broader worries about a lack of fairness in the political system. Only 26% of respondents thought that their country was governed for the benefit of all, rather than that of a few powerful groups. In Venezuela, which is enjoying a massive oil windfall, that figure rises to 50%, which helps to explain Mr Chávez's popularity.

Even so, 73% of respondents said they voted in the most recent election. That figure correlates closely with the turnout in the presidential elections of the past 13 months. This averaged 72%, up slightly on the average since 1978, according to Daniel Zovatto of IDEA, an inter-governmental group that promotes democracy. Some 57% of respondents in the poll said that voting was the most effective way to change things, against 14% who favoured participating in protest movements.

Latin Americans seem to be more optimistic about the economy than at any time since the poll began. Overall, 18% of respondents said that their country's economic situation was good (up from 11% last year), 47% said it was “all right” and 35% said it was bad (down from 47% last year). Meanwhile, 30% said their own economic situation was good, up from a low of 17% in 2003. That helps to explain why the swing to the left was moderate.

Privatised public services are slowly becoming less unpopular (see chart 5). But Latin Americans have reservations about the role of private enterprise in the extraction of natural resources. Only 37% think the private sector should play a big role in mining, 36% in oil and 39% in natural gas.

Latin Americans are still witheringly critical of many of their institutions, though a little less so than in the past. They still place most trust in their church (see chart 6). This year, they gave more credence to television. But trust in political parties, legislatures and the judiciary remains worryingly low. Oddly, 58% claim to be satisfied with the education to which they have access, even though their schools lag badly in international tests. If they were as charitable to their politicians as they are to their schools, the poll might look rather different. Overall, this year's results suggest that Latin America's democracies have recovered from the public disillusion prompted by economic stagnation in 1998-2002. But they still have a long way to go.

Latinobarómetro is a non-profit organisation based in Santiago, Chile, which has carried out regular surveys of opinions, attitudes and values in Latin America since 1995. The poll was taken by local opinion-research companies in 18 countries and involved 20,234 face- to-face interviews between October 3rd and November 5th 2006. The average margin of error was 3%. Central America in the charts refers to Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic. Further details from www.latinobarometro.org.