Concept Paper for an Office of Population in the White House

Concept Paper for an Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues in the White House And Similar Offices Elsewhere in the Federal Government By William N. Ryerson, President Population Media Center and Population Institute

Now that there may soon be an opportunity to rethink the United States’ approach to the issue of population growth, I would like to propose that consideration be given to the establishment of an Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues (like the President's Science Advisor) in the White House, both to elevate the discussion of the population issue in the context of sustainability and to coordinate with the relevant offices in other departments that support related work. The Special Assistant would have government- wide coordinating responsibility with similar offices in the State Department and USAID (which this office could work to strengthen), and new such offices to be created in Homeland Security, the National Security Council, the intelligence agencies, the Defense Department, and a new National Institute of Population Affairs for basic research and education (similar in function to the National Institutes of Health).

The world population more than doubled in the last 50 years. No country has gotten itself out of poverty without first stabilizing its population numbers first. The reason to establish the office in the White House is that there are serious questions regarding the current global strategy for solving the population growth problem being raised by a significant number of reputable population professionals. These concerns go beyond the obvious issue of funding levels.

Assuming that the United States and other donor countries can provide sufficient funding to meet existing family planning needs, there is growing concern that taking such a step will fall far short of stopping exponential growth of human numbers throughout the world and the poverty, human desperation, and ecological impacts it generates. In addition, it is clear that the Millennium Development Goals cannot be achieved in the absence of achieving universal access to, and widespread use of, voluntary family planning information and services. For example, with regard to Goal 7 (ensure environmental sustainability), the projected addition of 2.5 billion people to the world’s population between now and 2050 is the carbon equivalent of adding two United States to the planet. Even with reductions in per capita rates of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, such growth would accelerate climate change. In addition, likely future declines in availability of fossil fuels make continued growth of national and global populations difficult to maintain, even with the alternative energy sources now being developed.

For many decades there has been a failure by the global community to recognize that population growth is one of the pre-eminent problems we face. It is this problem that is driving the astonishing growth of fossil fuel use, climatic overheating, huge bio-diversity loss and species extinction, the growing shortage of fresh water to meet human needs, and, as a consequence of these changes, the prospect that agriculture will be unable to produce enough food to feed the world’s people.

1 Lindsey Grant, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Population and Environment warns that: “Together, these changes are the most important immediate challenge to humankind. They threaten the fabric of modern societies. The threat – still largely unrecognized – transcends all the other problems that transfix our policy makers: terrorism, economic recession or the transitory issues of international politics, and even the threat of nuclear proliferation.”

In order to address these concerns, the primary focus of an Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues in the White House would be the development of a global strategy for achieving population stabilization and/or reduction worldwide. This would include the following elements: 1. Compile information to create a shared understanding of the human population impact on the environment on which humanity relies for its survival;

2. Develop an Administration position as to whether U.S. and global population growth is desirable or not;

3. Once a position is established, the office would be charged with the following: A. First, proposing actions and policies to pursue that decision. This would include compiling, assisting with, and promoting development of (a.) domestic policies and (b.) policies of governments around the world with regard to population, family planning, climate change, and other elements of global sustainability; B. Second, examining other policy proposals that come to the President to evaluate whether they help or hinder the pursuit of that position. This role would enable the office to intervene in key national debates -- e.g. foreign assistance policies, global warming, immigration policy, or labor policy;

4. Ensuring high quality and availability of information and means necessary for people to determine the number and spacing of their children;

5. Promoting social, cultural, and attitudinal changes necessary to bring about reduced family size desires and use of effective family planning methods;

6. Informing other Federal departments of the likely population-related impact of their proposed activities and requiring those departments to develop formal Population Impact Statements for review – as in the current Environmental Impact Statement requirements. This would apply to both domestic and international population issues, including population growth, migration, and other demographic changes; and

7. Coordinating with offices of population and sustainability in other Federal departments, including the State Department, USAID, Homeland Security, the National Security Council, the intelligence agencies, and the Defense Department.

The fifth area has been neglected by many of the leading donor entities in the world. While much good has been accomplished by helping people achieve their current desired family size, unless we bring about changes in the status of women and attitudes of men and women with

2 regard to desired family size, merely helping the world’s population become better contraceptors will result in slower but unending exponential growth.

This is true because in many parts of the world people want more children than are required for replacement or because they are fatalistic and don’t believe it is appropriate or useful to take steps to determine family size.

In order to develop a strategy for population stabilization and/or reduction, there are some important research needs in the functions mentioned above. This includes obtaining a far more comprehensive understanding of family size preferences among those who are using contraceptives, as well as among those who are not, throughout all of the major countries of the world. This research could be conducted by a new National Institute of Population Affairs.

The proposed Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues in the White House would work to ensure that the National Institute of Population Affairs and other entities doing population-related research would give high priority to strategy-focused research and would develop estimates of the financial resources necessary to achieve success in the various areas of intervention mentioned above.

In addition, the Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues in the White House would work to ensure that research is conducted on key linkages between population growth and environmental degradation, population growth and women’s status, population growth and poverty, etc. Some of the findings of this research would feed into strategy discussions, while some would be useful in quantifying the problems caused by population growth and in promoting voluntary methods to bring about population stabilization.

A related activity for the Office of Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues would be to determine what level of population is appropriate globally and in the United States in order to achieve sustainability. The United States population is a matter of outstanding importance because of its very high per capita energy use and hence total emissions of greenhouse gasses. This would involve looking at scientific evidence regarding various combinations of population sizes and lifestyle choices to arrive at recommended levels of both. This should be done in consultation with other governments worldwide and in collaboration with the United Nations, but little will be achieved if the USA itself is not willing to set an example.

The proposed office would work with various donor governments and institutions to help develop a coordinated plan for funding the various activities required to implement the strategy.

The Special Assistant to the President for Population and Sustainability Issues should be familiar with the population field, the various points of view within the field, and the key players; should have the ability to make critical assessments of scientific findings and presentations relevant to strategy formation; should have managerial capability; should be action oriented and not just research oriented; and should have diplomatic skills in dealing with governments and funding entities throughout the world.