Project Information Document (Pid) s53

PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.: AB5101 Project Name Ghana GSDP Region AFRICA Sector Information technology (80%);General information and communications sector (20%) Project ID P118585 Borrower(s) GOVERNMENT OF GHANA Dr. Grace Bediako Ghana Statistical Service Ghana Tel: 682647, 682657, 682694, 663578 Fax: 233-21-664304 [email protected] Government of Ghana Ministry of Finance Ghana Implementing Agency Ghana Statistical Service P.O Box GP 1098 Ghana Tel: 682647, 682657, 682694, 663578 Fax: 233-21-664304 [email protected] Environment Category [ ] A [ ] B [X] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) Date PID Prepared September 29, 2009 Date of Appraisal September 28, 2009 Authorization Date of Board Approval November 30, 2011

1. Country and Sector Background 1. The Republic of Ghana lies on the West coast of Africa, north of the equator. The country shares its borders with Francophone countries; bordered on the north and northwest by Burkina Faso, on the east by Togo, and on the west by Cote d’Ivoire. To the south are the Gulf of Guinea and the Atlantic Ocean. Ghana covers a land area of about 92,098 square miles (238,533 square kilometers) and has a population of 231 million with per capita income in 2008 of $6702. Formally known as the Gold Coast, Ghana was among the first countries in Africa, south of the Sahara to gain independence in 1957. It is currently widely viewed as one of Africa’s most stable democracies. In 2008 it recorded its second democratic political transition through fair and transparent elections with President Atta Mills from the opposition party (National Democratic Congress, NDC) elected as the new President. The President was elected on a social democratic platform with the NDC emphasizing the need to reduce corruption, create jobs, improve and expand public service delivery in health, education, and social protection, and to expand infrastructure to sustain high growth rates and further poverty alleviation.

1 Source: Ghana Population Census, 2007 estimate 2 Atlas method, at current US Dollars. 2. Ghana has experienced two decades of strong and sustained economic growth. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been between 6 and 8 percent in the last three years and averaged at 5.2 percent during the period 2001–2005. Ghana’s Statistical Service (GSS) estimates real GDP growth at 7.3 percent3 in 2008 (4.5 percent in per capita terms). Economic growth was estimated to be particularly pronounced in construction (+12 percent), transport, trade and financial services (+10 percent). Following severe shortages in 2007, electricity supply also sharply rebounded (+19 percent), as generation capacity rose with the construction of new thermal power plants. Agriculture (+5 percent) and manufacturing (+5 percent) continued to grow following trends observed since 2000. Nonetheless, the new government has inherited a difficult macro-economic situation, the result of fiscal and monetary expansion in the pre- election period at a time of global markets reversal. Fiscal expansion in 2008 coincided with a sudden closure of access to international capital markets, and as a result, the Ghanaian economy was hit hard by the global crisis. Real GDP growth is projected to go down to an average of 4 percent in 2009 and 2010 and possibly to lower levels should the global situation further worsen, before rebounding in 2011 as oil extraction kick-starts. 3. Strong economic growth has contributed to significant poverty reduction. The estimated proportion of the poor in the total population declined from 39 percent in 1999 to 29 percent in 20064. While all major regions recorded reductions in poverty, it was more rapid in some than others with the poor increasingly being concentrated in northern regions. Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) depicts a mixed picture. The income poverty, hunger, gender parity at school and access to water goals (MDG1a, MDG1b, MDG3 and MDG7a respectively) are on track. However, meeting other MDGs by 2015 will require accelerated efforts. This is in particular the case for sanitation (MDG7b). Education (MDG2), as measured by the primary completion rate, is also lagging behind, in spite of recently rapidly growing net enrolment rates. Recent progress recorded in child (MDG4) and maternal mortality (MDG5) is also not sufficient to put Ghana back on track to meet these MDGs by 2015. 4. Ghana’s current Poverty Reduction Strategy II (GPRS II) covers the period 2006-2009. It emphasizes the centrality of private-led growth to reduce poverty, supported by human development and governance efforts to promote equity and political stability. It aims at supporting the objective of reaching middle income status by 2015. The GPRS II ends in December 2009 and is being replaced by a new medium-term framework which will focus on macroeconomic stabilization, productive infrastructure, human development, agricultural modernization, governance and geographical disparities. This agenda is data and information intensive and will require continuous monitoring for reporting on progress, and to inform decision making and the national budget. This in turn requires a well functioning National Statistical System. The current global financial crisis has demonstrated the need for reliable and timely official statistics. The cost of poor decision making is high and better decisions require good statistics.

Sector Issues

3 Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) 2008 provisional figures 4 Poverty rates are computed using the national poverty line. Estimates using international poverty line of US$1.25 a day puts the poverty rate at 30 percent in 2006, down from 39 percent in 1999. 5. The National Statistical System is considered to be performing below a level commensurate with a country aiming for middle income status by 2015. Inadequate economic and social data, both in terms of quantity and quality, are available for policy making, monitoring and research purposes. The project will focus on addressing the underlying institutional issues, the main impediment affecting the performance of the NSS, by preparing the GSS for major institutional reform, while building its human and physical capacity. It will also focus on providing Data Processing (DP) support to the 2010 Population and Housing Census, the results of which are essential for credible planning.

Statistical Developments

6. In the midst of global efforts to accelerate movement towards the goals of economic development and poverty reduction, especially in low income countries, comes the recognition that quality statistical information is crucial to the monitoring and assessment of progress. Ghana is no exception. There is growing demand for quality and timely statistics attributable, in part, to the need to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the GPRS, which started in 2001 and is now in its second phase. The new administration is also placing greater emphasis on the transparency and accountability of government and recognizes the need to demonstrate results. New demands for statistics exist for monitoring the New Partnership for African Development and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) alongside other national and sectoral programs such as HIV/AIDS, unemployment, access to education and health, and enterprise development.

7. Although there have been some notable statistical achievements in recent years including the successful implementation of the 2000 Population and Housing Census and several key household-based surveys, for several reasons the NSS has found it hard to meet this demand. In particular the GSS, the main producer of official statistics and the coordinator of the NSS, is widely perceived to be failing both to provide the quality and range of statistics required for efficient planning and monitoring of national development and to effectively coordinate the NSS. A series of institutional and organizational needs assessment (financed by the WB and other DPs) have been conducted which identify the weaknesses as i) an inadequate legal and policy framework for the coordination, collection, management and development of data in Ghana; ii) weak senior management with vacant deputy Government Statistician posts, iii) deterioration in the terms and conditions of service; iv) overstaffing of the GSS with a permanent work force much higher than is found in comparable African countries; v) a low proportion of graduate staff and a high turnover rate of academically qualified personnel; vi) inadequate performance and management systems; vii) limited technical capacity of staff; viii) dilapidated physical infrastructure; ix) an underdeveloped data program with the development of economic statistics neglected at the expense of social (mainly household surveys) statistics; x) limited dissemination of statistical products; and xi) constrained financial resources. The situation is no better in the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) as the statistical units are not properly set up, are under-resourced and have limited capacity to undertake the data production and dissemination activities required.

8. Over the past 25 years, efforts have been made to improve the functioning of the NSS. Two new legislative instruments were adopted: 1) the 1985 Provisional National Defense Council (PNDC) Law 135, establishing the GSS in place of the Central Bureau of Statistics as an autonomous body with a Board of Directors reporting to the Office of the President; 2) the 1993 Civil Service Law, PNDC Law 327 requiring that each sector ministry set up four line directorates one of which is the Research, Statistics, Information and Public Relations (RSIPR). Another attempt to boost statistics development in the country was the formation of the National Advisory Committee of Producers and Users of Statistics (NACPUS) in the late 1980s. Its main objective, to provide a platform to ensure coordinated identification of statistics requirements, harmonize standards in the production of statistics and, encourage users of statistics to contribute to the high cost of producing statistics, has not, however, been achieved. The GSS has also been organizing Africa Statistics Day every year since the early 1990s to create awareness about the importance of statistics. More recently, Ghana, like many other countries has sought to tackle issues regarding the quality of data by subscribing to the International Monetary Fund (IMF’s) General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). The GSS has also received support from the World Bank’s Accelerated Data Program to assist in establishing a micro-data archive and a web-based dissemination tool.

9. Despite these efforts, the weaknesses identified are valid and need addressing. To this end, the GSS has developed a Corporate Plan and the Ghana Statistical Development Plan (GSDP), both of which were launched in November 2008. The Corporate plan sets out the strategic framework and expected outcomes for the development of the GSS during the period 2009 to 2013. The GSDP, which brings together the GSS Corporate Plan and sector statistics plans into one strategy, adopts a system-wide approach to statistical development focusing on the strategies required to enhance the entire NSS in order to align the country’s statistical system with the planning, decision making and monitoring and evaluation requirements at the national, sector-specific and sub-national level. Furthermore, it recognizes the need to make relevant and reliable statistics easily accessible to all categories of stakeholders: government institutions, businesses, community and civil society groups, and individuals, including researchers and academicians.

2. Objectives

GSDP Strategic Objectives

10. The GSDP deals with legal and institutional issues, identifies technical assistance and training needs, estimates the costs of implementing the strategy, and explains how these costs will be financed. The GSDP is Ghana’s response to the commitments made in the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics (MAPS) at the Second International Roundtable on Managing for Development Results5. Its overall goal is to strengthen the National Statistical System to enable it to perform its functions efficiently and effectively in order to produce quality statistics. It has four strategic objectives as follows: i. Improving Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework

5 MAPS set a target for all low-income countries to design a National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) by 2006 and start the implementation process by 2007. The main objective is to produce locally, the high quality statistical data required for the next major review (to be conducted in 2010) of the country’s progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). 11. This component will focus on improving the effectiveness of statistical laws and regulations and the organizational structure of the GSS in order to provide a national framework for data management and development in the country as well as guidelines for overall coordination to harmonize efforts and eliminate duplication of responsibilities. In addition, it will focus on reforming the GSS to effectively and efficiently deliver on its mandate as the main producer of official statistics and the coordinator of the NSS. This will include the rationalization of staff, and developing and implementing a comprehensive training program for MDAs and Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs). Statistical advocacy through working with MDAs, Parliament, Government, NGOs and international organizations and training the media will also be covered by this component. ii. Statistical Infrastructure

12. The emphasis will be on improving the statistical infrastructure in order to enhance statistical quality through, updating the national sampling frame, compiling the business register, reviewing and updating the Geographical Information Systems and applying international standards to improve the quality of statistics. The use of common concepts, standards and classifications in line with international standards will be promoted to improve the consistency in official statistics. iii. Data Development and Management

13. This component is concerned with improving the quality of official statistics and promoting data development and management within the NSS to ensure it is able to generate and disseminate diversified products and services in order to respond to both the planning, and monitoring and evaluation needs of national development programs and to its broad constituents of stakeholders. Full and timely implementation of the census and survey program will be a key objective as will improving national accounts and reviewing the framework for price statistics. Again, the capacity of the various MDAs will be developed to generate quality statistics to inform their policy formulation and program implementation, and to feed into the GSS so that it is able to compile and effectively disseminate the necessary official statistics from the administrative sources. Adherence to an agreed time schedule between the MDAs and GSS on release of the various administrative data will be developed, monitored and reviewed regularly. A dissemination strategy will also be formulated from the onset of implementation covering the national, regional and district levels. iv. Investment in Physical Infrastructure and Equipment

14. The final component focuses on establishing GSS offices in the administrative districts, where they do not already exist, and providing adequate office space and essential equipment for all staff including statisticians in the MDAs. It will also ensure that the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure is in place so that all producers of official statistics are able to access data and other information in order to facilitate their work. A databank for MDAs, MMDAs and GSS regional offices will be developed, networked and linked to a central databank at GSS Head Office to serve the data needs of the country. Coverage of the GSDP 15. The first phase of the overall GSDP program, which will be implemented over the next five years, covers 9 MDAs and the GSS as set out below. The second phase will cover the remaining MDAs.

a) Ghana Statistical Service (GSS); b) Ministry of Communication (MOC); c) Ministry of Education, Science and Sports (MOESS); d) Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MOFA); e) Ministry of Health (MOH); f) Births and Deaths Registry (B&D); g) Ministry of Lands, Forestry and Mines (MOLFM); h) Ministry of Manpower Youth and Employment (MMYE); i) Ministry of Trade, Industry, Private Sector Development and President’s Special initiatives (MOTI, PSD & PSI); j) Ministry of Women and Children Affairs (MOWAC).

Strategic relevance

16. Improving the quality and availability of statistics by enhancing the capacity of the NSS is identified as one of the priorities of the GPRS II. It recognizes that reliable and timely statistics strengthen the government’s ability to prescribe appropriate policies and assess policy effectiveness in critical areas including: macroeconomic policy, population management, service delivery and gender equity. The Government also understands that statistics are a prerequisite for evidence based management and good governance. The World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy for Ghana and the Ghana Joint Assistance Strategy (JAS 2007) recognize the need to support evidence based decision-making through, amongst other initiatives, strengthened national statistical systems.

Government Commitment

17. The support has a high chance of being successful as there is a growing demand for quality data and the GSS has strong, reform-oriented leadership which has the backing of the Government. A new GSS Board has recently been appointed with a well-respected and influential chairman who is committed to the reform agenda. The GSS has established the Program Development and Management Group (PDMG) within the GSS to support the overall management of the GSDP. Reporting directly to the Government Statistician; the Group will oversee, promote, coordinate and support the implementation of the GSDP including the statistical activities to be funded by the project.

Relationship with DPs

18. The GSDP was prepared through an interactive and consultative process that involved the government, NGOs, the private sector and development partners. An M&E Theme (Sector) Group was reconvened in March 2009 to provide a forum for dialogue between MDA and DP representatives engaged in the monitoring and evaluation sector. A sub-committee of the theme group, specifically on statistics has recently been formed to ensure active DP engagement on GSDP implementation.

3. Rationale for Bank Involvement

19. Weak and inefficient national statistical systems seriously constrain decision making and monitoring of progress in many countries. Limited statistical capacity remains the main obstacle to better monitoring of Poverty Reduction Strategies and measuring progress towards the MDGs. It is also a major constraint for managing for development results. The increased emphasis on results in both IDA 14 and IDA 15 has focused attention on the statistical systems of low income developing countries like Ghana. The IDA 15 in particular, focuses on the need to promote demand for good statistics, to close the gaps in data coverage and eliminate statistical weaknesses through International Development Agency (IDA) operations or initiatives.

20. The rationale for the Bank’s involvement and leadership in this project can be explained by five reasons. i. World Bank mandate on statistical capacity

21. First the Bank has a mandate to lead the statistical capacity initiative particularly in IDA countries. During the IDA 14 replenishment negotiations, deputies requested that IDA should play a leadership role in the global partnership for statistical capacity building. In addition, as part of IDA 15 Results Measurement System, results based Country Assistance or Partnership Strategies are expected to include a review of the national statistical systems and an indication of what is needed to strengthen the capacity both to generate and to use statistical data. IDA 15 clearly states that statistical capacity building will be given prominence during IDA 15, especially in mainstreaming a comprehensive discussion on country statistical systems in Interim Strategy Notes (ISNs) and following up with relevant instruments in line with country priorities and in collaboration with other development partners. ii Knowledge and Experience

22. The Bank has provided long term support to statistical capacity building and consequently has substantial experience in assisting countries in the development of their NSSs. It leads efforts to develop statistics that are comparable across countries such as the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Comparison Program (ICP) for prices. As a major user of social and economic statistical information, it also has knowledge of the limitations of the data and the capacity needs within a country. The Bank has provided support to the GSS over several years and has built a strong relationship with the Government Statistician and senior management. A DFID-seconded staff (a statistician) has been placed in the Ghana World Bank Country Office specifically to lead and coordinate support to statistical capacity building through implementation of the GSDP. iii Donor Partnerships 23. The Bank has a strong commitment to the Partnership approach. It is the DP co-lead for the M&E Theme Group and is due to become the lead from March 2010. It is also likely to be the DP lead for the recently established Sub-Committee on Statistics and plays a key role in helping to strengthen DPs efforts for statistical capacity building. The Bank is involved in: i) the Partnership in Statistics (PARIS216) and ii) the GDDS, which aims to improve the quality, access and integrity of macroeconomic, financial and socio-demographic data. iv Consistency with National and International Commitments

24. The project is in line with the commitments from the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, stating that DPs will base their support on countries’ national development strategies; will work so their actions are more harmonized and collectively effective and will help to strengthen developing countries national statistical capacity and information systems. It is also consistent with i) the Bank’s draft Africa Strategy for Statistical Development which has the overall objective to assist Sub-Saharan African countries to strengthen and develop their NSS through the design and implementation of National Strategies for the Development of Statistics; ii) the Bank supported drive towards managing for Development Results in Africa which has led to an unprecedented increase in the need for better statistics as a tool for the country to manage for achieving their development objectives and iii) the Reference Regional Strategic Framework (RRSF) which sets out a coherent framework to build the capacity to produce better statistics, in line with the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics (MAPS). v Longer term commitment to the Statistical Capacity Building in Ghana

25. The proposed project contributes to the Ghana Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) objectives and the DPs commitment, as set out in the Ghana Joint Assistance Strategy (JAS, 2007); to support evidence based decision-making through, amongst other initiatives, strengthened national statistics. Ghana has already benefitted from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB), which financed the development of the GSDP and the institutional assessments. The project will be linked to this support and will also pave the way for future IDA and Statistics for Results Facility (SRF) funding by increasing the capacity of the GSS in procurement and financial management, in strategic planning, and change and human resource management. It will also prepare the GSS for institutional and organizational reform. C Higher level objectives to which the project7 contributes

Achieving GPRS II and its successor, the Medium Term National Development Policy Framework

6 (PARIS21) is an international consortium sponsored by the United Nations (UN), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the IMF and the European Commission. 7 The use of the word “Program” throughout the document refers to the overall Statistical development Program, which is a 5-year program of statistical development involving the GSS and line Ministries (MDAs). The word “Project” refers to the Multi-donor Trust Fund project, which is a 3-year program focusing on kick starting GSDP activities and preparing the GSS for implementation of the wider program. 26. The GPRS II clearly stipulates that the capacity of the statistical system, encompassing all data generating MDAs and civil society, should be enhanced to promote evidence based governance in the public and private sectors and to strengthen the government’s ability to prescribe appropriate policies and assess policy effectiveness. The project will help build the Government’s capacity to produce better statistics for tracking progress of the key indicators in the national development programs including the GPRS II, and its successor the Medium Term National Development Policy Framework, and to provide feedback to policy makers for improving public policy and the use of resources.

27. The project will also contribute to the long term vision for the Ghana Statistical System which is to modernize and streamline the National Statistical System to ensure that it is sufficiently equipped in terms of human resources, essential tools and infrastructure to produce and disseminate reliable and timely statistics in a cost effective manner, in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs. This will be an ongoing effort as the NSS continually strives to improve the quality and relevance of its data. Nonetheless, implementation of the GSDP over the next 5 years will be a major step forward.

4. Description

A. Lending instrument

28. The proposed financing instrument is a Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) which includes funding from DFID (£3m) and the European Commission (EC) (€1.9m). The Africa Development Bank (AfDB) and the UN family (made up of United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)), are already providing the GSS with approximately $395,000 for 2 years from 2010 and $2.5 million per year respectively. The Swiss Embassy and Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) are considering contributing to the 2010 census although no firm commitments have yet been made. The DPs are trying to strengthen the coordination of their activities through the newly re-established M&E theme group and the sub-committee on statistics.

29. The MDTF is the first of three financing mechanisms being proposed to provide support to statistical capacity development in Ghana through implementation of the GDSP. The others are a $30m IDA credit for statistics over a 5-year period and about $10m from the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF).

30. The MDTF will focus on institutional reform and capacity building (aligned with strategic objective 1 of the GSDP on policy, regulations and the institutional framework (see paragraph 11)) and data processing activities for the 2010 Population and Housing Census (part of strategic objective 3 on data development and management (see paragraph 13)). GSS urgently requires support for the Population and Housing Census if it is going to take place in 2010. Institutional reform and capacity building are also high priority areas if support to the GSS is to be sustained. As it is ill-advised to carry out institutional reform during a major data collection exercise, such as a census, the MDTF purposely supports the preparatory work required for reform so that GSS is ready to implement after the census. The MDTF will also focus on upfront activities designed to enhance GSS’s capacity to ensure that it is sufficiently capable of coordinating the NSS. GSS first requires strengthening before it can effectively reach out to the MDAs. Enhancing collaboration between the GSS and MDAs and improving the capacity of MDAs in data generation and use will therefore be part of the SRF-CF and IDA support..

31. The SRF is a global partnership initiative to scale-up investments in statistical capacity. The SRF-CF is managed by the World Bank and provides grants to support countries that commit to the principles of the Catalytic Fund Charter. Grants from the Catalytic Fund aim to make sustainable improvements in the production, availability and use of quality statistics, to increase capacity in policy formulation and decision-making for development. In each participating country, the grant from the SRF-CF will aim to:

 Promote a system-wide approach in statistics at country level;  Substantially increase resources for implementing country-owned National Statistical Plans8;  Explicitly link improvements in the statistical system to the needs of national and sectoral monitoring frameworks, and promote an improved national dialogue and partnership between statistics users and statistical producers; and  Deliver more efficient and effective aid and technical assistance for strengthening statistical systems and results measurement.

32. Ghana was one of five pilot countries invited to apply for the funds. GSS has accepted the invitation to apply for funding and can access resources to help prepare the application and other project documentation. A consultant will be funded by the SRF-CF to help finalize the GSDP implementation and budget plan. This step is critical for the SRF-CF and IDA financing as it will help identify priority activities for this funding.

33. The IDA credit of about US$30 million along with the SRF-CF, will be designed to finance parallel activities/expenditures of the wider GSDP, with expanded beneficiaries, agencies, and indicators.

B. Program9 development objective and key indicators 34. The Program Development Objective (PDO) is to modernize and streamline the Ghana National Statistical System to ensure that it is sufficiently resourced in terms of human resources, essential tools and infrastructure to produce and disseminate reliable and timely statistics in a cost effective manner, in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs. The main beneficiaries of the project outcomes are the Ghana Statistical Service, the Government and the general public of Ghana as well as the international DPs.

8 A National Statistical Plan is a plan for improving national statistics and statistical capacity. A National Strategy for the Development of Statistics or similar strategic document may be used provided it meets the criteria set out in the SFR-CF Charter document (para. 4a). 9 The word “Project” whenever used in this document refers to the Multi-donor Trust Fund. 35. A programmatic approach to implementation will be carried out with the MDTF first in the sequence of support. The MDTF will contribute to the overall PDO by providing technical and financial support for implementation of the GSDP with a focus on the GSS. The specific PDO for the MDTF is to prepare the GSS for institutional reform and to support the GSS for data processing of the 2010 census. This will be measured by the PDO outcome indicators:

 Institutional reform roadmap being implemented on track; and  Availability of the provisional results of the 2010 census.

36. The specific intermediate outcome indicators of the project are:

 Legal framework for the NSS with clear roles, responsibilities, reporting line and functions developed;  Institutional framework for the GSS for implementation of the GSDP developed;  Number of staff with competencies in core areas, official statistics, demography, data analysis, sampling design and methodology increased;  Number of senior managers with core managerial competencies as shown by staff surveys, increased;  All professional staff at GSS HQs have access to internet-based information technology and GSS networks;  GIS used to improve the design, implementation and dissemination of surveys and MDAs have access to GIS;  The use of concepts, definitions and methodologies across NSS standardized in at least 10 subject matter areas;  Quality enhanced and the number of statistical products increased; and  Effective and efficient data processing solution for the census operational.

C. The MDTF Project components

37. The MDTF is fully aligned to the GSDP focusing specifically on components i) and iii) of the GSDP (see paragraphs 11 and 13). The development of statistics in Ghana requires an in- depth review of the organizational structure of the statistical system in general and GSS in particular. It also requires a fine-tuning of the organizational structure and building up certain divisions that play a leading role in collecting and processing priority data. There are indications that many divisions of GSS do not have the right staff mix. Furthermore, specialists seldom find the time to engage in the analysis of data quality or data reconciliation issues, even when these issues are very important.

60. Performance monitoring will be based on performance indicators as included in Annex 3 as well as work programs to be prepared by the PDMG annually. Special attention will be given to monitoring progress on the institutional reform and staff skills development, as this is critical to the success of the entire program.

61. The project components to be financed under the MDTF are:  Carrying out the necessary ground work for legal and institutional reform as well as reviewing and recommending the appropriate staffing needs and levels for the implementation of the GSDP;  Capacity building in terms of training, technical advice and upgrading Information technology (IT) equipment;  Improving the quality and dissemination of statistical products;  Part funding the data processing for the 2010 Population and Housing Census; and  Project management.

40. The Government and Development Partners have agreed that these are the priority areas for implementation and will help prepare the groundwork for future interventions. Retro-active financing may be required for component (iv). DFID has indicated its consent on the retroactive financing and EC has agreed to sign the Administrative Agreement (AA) by taking the notional approach. A brief description of each of the components is presented below (further information is given in Annex 4). The details of the activities and expenditures will be reflected in the annual work plans and budgets.

Component 1: Legal and institutional reform of the NSS (US$ 0.38 million)

41. This component will support the preparation of a comprehensive program of legal and institutional reform of the NSS. It aims at ensuring that the GSS has the institutional capacity required for formulating and implementing statistical policies and programs and that it adheres to modern principles of public sector management. The component will support the revision of the legal framework which will clarify the GSS’ reporting requirements and its autonomous status. It will also strengthen GSS’ role to harmonize, align and coordinate statistical activities across the NSS. It will review the organizational set up at national, regional and district level to establish how the GSS can best be structured to deliver on its mandate. A redeployment and retrenchment strategy will be prepared for implementation after the 2010 Population and Housing Census enumeration and prior to the next Presidential elections in 2012 and the terms and conditions of service will be reviewed. Support for financing of the redeployment and retrenchment strategy will be under the IDA credit and/or the SRF-CF.

Component 2: Strengthening the capacity of the GSS (US$ 1.36 million)

62. This component will strengthen the capacity of the GSS through management and technical skills training as well as the adoption of new ICT. A comprehensive training program will be developed and training provided to senior and middle management as a priority to ensure that they are equipped with management and leadership skills. Staff will also receive professional training and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) online statistics training course will be customized for Ghana’s purposes. The IT equipment, including hardware and software will be upgraded. This will improve the communications and internet connections between GSS and the entire NSS. This component will also enhance the Geographical Information System (GIS) by assessing current practices and policies in Ghana, providing hardware and software for GIS to the GSS and training to GSS staff in the use of the software. Component 3: Improving the quality and dissemination of statistical products (US$0.90 million);

63. This component focuses on improving the production and dissemination of statistical products across the NSS. A review of the quality and scope of statistical products and services will be carried out with a view of aligning these with international best practices and increasing the quality and quantity of products and services publically available. This component will also support the development and production of a comprehensive manual on statistical standards and methods for at least 10 thematic areas which will be disseminated across the NSS.

Component 4: Support to the 2010 Population and Housing Census data processing activities. (US$ 3.12 million)

64. The component will part finance the total data processing solution for the 2010 Population and Housing Census including the application of scanning technology to design scannable household questionnaires and manuals for the census enumeration. The government is financing the other part of the data processing. The solution will include a) the design and layout of the census forms; b) electronic tracking of the movement of questionnaires to and from the scanning room; c) scanning of questionnaires; d) verification and validation of scanned data; e) storage, archiving and retrieval of data and images; and f) the generation of datasets into a relational database. The project will finance equipment for data processing and consultancy inputs. The capacity developed from the process will be applied to the data processing activities of upcoming surveys.

Component 5: Project Management. (US$1.34 million)10

45. The GSS will be the sole implementing agency with no flow of funds to, and procurement by any other entities. The PDMG will support implementation of the project. To effectively carry out the implementation and daily project administrative work, a financial management specialist and a procurement specialist will be hired by the PDMG. The specialists will ensure compliance with the procurement, disbursement and financial management policies and procedures and will go beyond Bank sponsored projects and disbursements to train staff across the board on financial management practices as well as to instill good financial management across the GSS.

46. The component will also support GSS management, especially in the early stages of the process, by the recruitment of 6 other technical advisers11. These will include: (i) a strategic planning and management expert; (ii) communications expert; (iii) IT applications consultant; (iv) statistics trainer; (v) demographer for population estimates and projections; and (vi) Human resource and change management expert. The advisors will be experienced managers of national statistical systems with substantial experience of working in Africa and of strategic planning for statistical development. The advisors will mainly report to the Government Statistician and will provide guidance and advice on the process of implementing the GSDP. 10 This amount excludes an unallocated amount of US$290,796. 11 The experienced technical advisers, (who will report directly to the Statistician General), will help build capacity as well as provide guidance and advice on the plan implementation. 5. Financing Source: ($m.) Borrower 0 Free-standing Single Purpose Trust Fund 7.37 Total 7.37 6. Implementation

A. Partnership arrangements

65. The Bank is in constant dialogue with other donors who have also carried out activities at the GSS including: the DFID, AfDB, EC, GTZ, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNDP and United States Agency for International Development (USAID). This dialogue conducted through the M&E thematic group provides the opportunity for sharing of experiences and harmonization of programs. A sub-committee on statistics has also been established to ensure Government and DPs work in partnership on statistical development in Ghana. Several bilateral and multilateral donors have indicated interest in supporting the development of Ghana’s NSS, and/or have helped to finance the preparation of the GSDP. They include: DFID, the World Bank, the European Commission, the UN through the United Nations country team, and the IMF through the GDDS project, the Netherlands Embassy through the SRF, CIDA, GTZ, and the Swiss Embassy.

66. The proposed project is implemented in full partnership with Government. The ultimate aim is to have Government and its DPs reach a consensus on a Sector Wide Approach for the development of the NSS with one joint basket funding arrangement. This would be a more efficient way to manage available resources, to streamline reporting and other systems and to meet agreed priorities based on partnership principles. The capacity of the GSS in financial management and procurement requires strengthening before such an arrangement could be put in place. It was explained earlier that the objective of the MDTF is to build the capacity of GSS to get it prepared for institutional reform and full implementation of the GSDP. As such, GSS’ financial management and procurement capacity will be reassessed during the preparation of the IDA credit and the SRF-CF to determine whether a joint basket funding arrangement is feasible. The IDA credit and the SRF-CF will finance GSDP activites not already covered by the MDTF.

67. The MDTF will also complement efforts being deployed in other sectors by the Bank and other development partners. Indeed, the institutional reforms (including increased transparency, predictability, and accountability), and capacity enhancement activities that the MDTF will support in GSS are designed to provide a more coherent data collection system and more efficient operational processes that the service delivery oriented sector, PREM and Sustainable Development programs will benefit from. For instance, the reforms in personnel will be instrumental in improving a key resource needed for efficient data production.

B Institutional and implementation arrangements 50. To support the overall implementation of the GSDP, the Management of GSS has set up the PDMG with a head to oversee the implementation of the Plan. Reporting directly to the Government Statistician, the PDMG will oversee, promote, coordinate, support, and monitor and evaluate the implementation of the GSDP. It will also provide the secretariat for the GSDP steering committee, which will be set up by June 2010, and will facilitate smooth communication among members of the NSS through frequent briefings . The PDMG has three teams: Planning & Budgeting; Monitoring & Reporting; and Support & Evaluation. Each has a proposed staff strength of three.

51. The other components of the structure will be the Steering Committee, the M&E Sub- Committee on Statistics, an Inter-Agency Working Group, the various groups within the GSS, and the MDAs and other key stakeholders. These teams will work in concert (either with support from or under direction of the head of PDMG), to coordinate the implementation of the GSDP.

68. Prior to the commencement of project implementation, a Project Implementation Manual (PIM) will be prepared that will, among other things, confirm the organizational arrangement for the management of procurement; provide detailed terms of references for the staff, the functional relationships and interaction between the project’s staff responsible for procurement and the relevant units for administration and finance. In addition, it will offer clear instructions and guidance for the management of procurement records.

69. The Planning and Budget team of GSS is already in place and will be responsible for managing the financial affairs of the project. The Project will follow disbursement procedures described in the World Bank Disbursement Handbook by adopting the transaction based procedure. Regarding flow of funds and banking arrangements, IDA will disburse the grant through a Disbursement Account (DA). The PDMG and the planning and budget team will maintain adequate FM arrangements to support the deployment of project resources in an economic, efficient and effective manner to achieve the stated development objectives. The team will also facilitate project planning, budgeting, and management to improve the effectiveness of governance within the Ghana Statistical Service. It will review progress of components captured in the strategic plan and identify needs for adjustment, redesign training needs and technical assistance and work with key stakeholders and partners to facilitate the implementation of the project activities. It will review budget performance on a quarterly and annual basis, identify variances, and recommend allocations or reductions. It will provide budget information and financial reports to the Government Statistician.

70. The Monitoring and Reporting Team will monitor the implementation of the project activities in accordance with procedures and specifications to ensure timely delivery of outputs. The Team will work in close collaboration with the Coordination and Capacity Building Group (CCBG) of GSS, in monitoring the implementation performance of the MDAs. The Support and Evaluation Team will conduct independent assessments of project activities and their outcomes and map out required follow up actions. It will develop evaluation guidelines and work with the other teams to ensure that all work plans include a fully budgeted Monitoring and Evaluation Plan. Additionally, it will prepare and distribute evaluation reports. The steering committee will be set up by June 2010, so until then, the PDMG will oversee the implementation of the MDTF and report directly to the Government Statistician. The team will also submit to IDA, on a quarterly basis, timely and accurate reporting of the progress of implementation.

C Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results

71. To track progress towards the desired outcomes, the PDMG will regularly monitor a set of intermediate outcome indicators in accordance with the results framework and the risk management and internal control arrangements explained below. The baselines for the intermediate outcome indicators have been included in the results matrix in annex 3. The PDMG will monitor implementation of the MDTF through quarterly financial management and annual implementation progress reports. 72. A review will be conducted jointly by the Government and DPs about one and a half years after the project becomes effective. The PDMG’s quarterly reports of progress (based on the work plan and the strategic results framework), the annual report prepared by the project team, annual financial reports and the half yearly audits of the project will be disseminated to all DPs and participating agencies, and will be shared publicly through the GSS website and in the media.

7. Sustainability

73. The Project design provides reasonable assurances regarding the sustainability of the activities supported. The Government’s development program as outlined in GPRS II emphasizes the need to improve the quality and availability of statistics by enhancing the capacity of the NSS. It recognizes that reliable and timely statistics strengthen the government’s ability to prescribe appropriate policies and assess policy effectiveness in critical areas including: macroeconomic policy, population management and gender equity. The Government also understands that statistics are a prerequisite for evidence based management and good governance. Furthermore, the government has subscribed to the IMF’s GDDS, which provides further evidence that it is committed to improving the NSS.

74. The development of a better user-producer dialogue is another indicator that will ensure sustainability. By developing the user-producer dialogue through reinvigorating the National Advisory Committee of Producers and Users of Statistics (NACPUS) and by improving the quality of data in the GPRS II (and its successor) and MDG context, the GSS will also increase the demand for statistics within the government, the research community and civil society. The government has committed to supporting the GSDP by providing budgetary support to the statistical system. However, sustainability of the project will largely depend on the government maintaining a strong political commitment for reforms throughout the life of the project and beyond the life cycle of the present political regime. 75. Sustainability in IT investments depends on adequate operation and maintenance of hardware systems and upgrading of software being put in place whenever necessary. It is important to ensure that the equipment procured lasts beyond the project. This will require regular maintenance of the equipment by the IT team. 8. Lessons Learned from Past Operations in the Country/Sector Statistical capacity building requires integrated and coordinated support

76. Experience from Ghana and other countries has shown that fragmented and uncoordinated programs of support do not result in sustainable improvements in statistical production and dissemination. By basing its assistance on the Ghana Statistical Development Plan, this project ensures that support is provided in a coordinated way in line with the Government’s national strategy for statistics. The project also supports specific measures to strengthen coordination, collaboration, networking, and information sharing among stakeholders, and will use national systems including the national M&E theme group and the sub-committee on statistics to harmonize and coordinate with other DPs.

Projects are often not sustainable once donor support stops

77. Reviews of past statistical development projects show that the beneficial impacts of projects tend to be limited to the lifetime of the project. Thus, activities and human resource capacity enhanced by these projects often fail to be sustained due to the absence of a long-term strategy. This project reflects this lesson by supporting the implementation of the Government’s GSDP. This Plan has broad ownership by providers and users of statistics as well as governance arrangements that emphasize transparency, managerial accountability, and results. By focusing on the institutional, organizational and legal issues, the project will also address the key factors affecting the GSS’ ability to produce quality, relevant and timely statistics over time.

Poor quality and limited dissemination of data impacting on use of data

78. The GSDP indicates that there is a growing demand and appreciation of the role and importance of statistical data and information but that the poor quality and limited dissemination of statistics are major factors limiting data use in the country. This project reflects this lesson by supporting improvements in the quality of data by: (a) improving inter-institutional coordination and linkages among institutions that produce data; (b) encouraging various data producers to adopt and apply system-wide standardized concepts, definitions and classifications, while providing opportunities for stakeholders and recognized experts to comment on technical designs, coverage and implementation arrangements prepared for surveys and administrative data collection; (c) promoting the use of best practices and appropriate methods; and (d) developing skills and expertise for data analysis. The project is also supporting a review of GSS statistical products and services to improve quality and scope.

Development Partners support has focused on data collection activities rather than institutional reform

79. In Ghana, statistical support has been largely provided to improve specific components of the statistical system in particular data collection activities. Inadequate efforts to address the design and functioning of the statistical system as an element of public administration has resulted in a limited impact on the statistics systems as a whole. Weak governance arrangements, a lack of qualified staff, poor terms and conditions of service and incentive structures and a high turnover rate are all areas undermining the core business of the GSS. The project will address these issues by supporting the review of the legal framework and the terms and conditions of service, providing training both in technical and management skills and preparing the GSS for institutional reform.

Inadequate dissemination of official statistics

80. The GSS gives insufficient attention to the needs of their clients. This results in the prioritization of data collection and analysis activities, at the expense of dissemination. Consequently, information on existing sources of official statistics has been inadequate and not readily available to users. The project will address this by reviewing the quality and scope of statistical products and services with the aim of providing a strategy as to how they can be improved in line with international standards and to meet the needs of users.

9. Safeguard Policies (including public consultation)

No safeguard policy is triggered by this project.

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) [ ] [ x] Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [ ] [ x] Pest Management (OP 4.09) [ ] [ x] Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) [ ] [ x] Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [ ] [ x] Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) [ ] [ x] Forests (OP/BP 4.36) [ ] [ x] Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [ ] [ x] Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)* [ ] [ x] Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) [ ] [ x]

10. List of Factual Technical Documents

A. Relating to Project Implementation:

 Project Implementation Manual  Detailed Project Costs  Procurement Manual  Baseline Studies o Ghana GSS Institutional Review 2006; o Hodgkinson Report 2007

B. Bank Staff Assessment (including ESW):

 World Bank 2007. Ghana: Country Assistance Strategy  World Bank 2007. Ghana Joint Staff AssessmentWorld Bank 2002.

* By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims on the disputed areas C. Other related documents:

 Ministry of Lands, Forestry and Mines (MLFM): Sector Plan for Development of Statistics  Ministry of Man Power, Youth and Employment (MMYE): Sector Strategic Plan for the Development of Statistics (2008-2013);  Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MFA): Strategic Plan for Agricultural Statistical Development;  Ministry of Women and Children Affairs (MOWAC): Strategic Plan for Sector Statistical Development;  Ministry of Education, Science and Sports: Strategic Plan for the Development of Statistics (EMIS);  Ministry of Trade, Industry and Private Sector Development: Strategic Plan for Sector Statistical Development;  Ghana Statistical Service (GSS): Corporate Plan 2009-2013;  Ghana Statistical Service: National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS).

11. Contact point Contact: John Y. Ngwafon Title: Senior Economist Tel: 234-9-314-5269-75 Cell: 07037419287 |DAMA 5359-276 Fax: Email: [email protected] Location: Abuja, Nigeria (IBRD)

12. For more information contact: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 458-4500 Fax: (202) 522-1500 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.worldbank.org/infoshop