Rating Special Teams For

Rating Special Teams for STATIS PRO FOOTBALL By A. Mittermeyer

The formulas presented in this article are based on analyzing the original 1989 cards from Avalon Hill. Thanks to DiceQ for helping me with the kickers since they presented a real problem for me. For the special teams you have to rate punters, kickers, punt returners and kickoff returners.

Rating Punters Rating Punters is a rather easy task. All you need are five values (data from the regular season statistics which can be found on nfl.com or usatoday.com): o) number of punts made (NR) o) gross punting yardage (YDS) o) longest punt (LG) o) number of punts blocked (PB) o) number of punts returned (PR) There are basically two informations that have to be determined: the length of the punts for run numbers 1 to 11 and which of those will be returned. Step 1 will be to determine the The first to do is to determine the punting yard average (AVG) by dividing the yards by the number of punts: AVG = YDS / NR Reduce 1 from that AVG and you have row 6 The rows from 7 to 11 and from 2 to 5 are based on the value in row 6. Row 1 is the longest punt Row 2 = Row 6 + 11 yards Row 7 = Row 6 – 2 yards Row 3 = Row 6 + 7 yards Row 8 = Row 6 – 3 yards Row 4 = Row 6 + 6 yards Row 9 = Row 6 – 4 yards Row 5 = Row 6 + 4 yards Row 10 = Row 6 – 9 yards Row 11 = Row 6 – 19 yards Example: Reggie Roby of the 1989 Miami Dolphins had 58 punts for 2458 yards. His longest punt was for 58 yards and he had 1 punt blocked. His punting yard average (AVG) is 42 yards and row 6 will be 42 – 1 = 41 yards 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 58 41 58 41 39 38 37 32 22 58 52 48 47 45 41 39 38 37 32 22

You have to control that the value in row 2 is below that in row 1. It should be for any punter in the NFL but if it is not then start deducting 1 from row 1 giving row 2. Next check if row 3 is below row 2. If it is not then deduct 1 from row 2 giving row 3. Do that as long as there are any rows that are greater or equal than the row before. The same goes with row 11. If that value is below 15 yards then set it to 15 and start adding 1 to the row below until for any row n all rows greater than n have a value less than row n. Now let us have a look at row 12. If there has been at last 1 blocked punt the you will have row 12 this way: 12: 1 Punt blocked 2-12 Penalty Otherwise row 12 is just Penalty The next task is to determine the number of rows for returned punts. This number is based on the return percentage (R%) which is number of returned punts divided by the total number of punts: R% = PR / NR Row 1 can never be a fair catch and always goes to punt returner 1. If R% is greater than 20 percent then row 2 will get the entry PR2 otherwise there will be the fair catch entry (FC). This goes on for rows 3 to 11 based on the table below R% Row PR# R% Row PR# > 20 % 2 PR2 > 60 % 7 PR3 > 30 % 3 PR3 > 65 % 8 PR4 > 40 % 4 PR4 > 70 % 9 PR1 > 50 % 5 PR1 > 75 % 10 PR2 > 55 % 6 PR2 > 80 % 11 PR3

Example: Reggie Roby of the ’89 Dolphins punted 58 times and 26 punts have been returned which means his return percentage was 45 percent. So the rows 5 to 11 have been fair catches and row 2 has PR2, row 3 has PR3 and row 4 has PR4 as the designated returner

Rating Kickers Kickers are easy to rate. You will have to rate their point after touchdown success as well as their values for field goals. PAT is just based on the number of succesful attempts divided by the number of total attempts. Take this percentage and have a look at the table below which gives you his PAT value. Percentage Value 100 1-48 97,5 – 100 1-47 95,0 – 97,5 1-46 92,5 – 95,0 1-45 90,0 – 92,5 1-44 87,5 – 90,0 1-43 85,0 – 87,5 1-42 82,5 – 85,0 1-41 Below 82,5 1-40

For rating field goals you have to determine the percentage of made field goals by dividing attempts into successful attempts. Multiply that value by 48 and you have the vale for field goals from 26 to 35 yards (BASE). The maximum value for this row is 1-40 The value for field goals from 17 to 25 yards is BASE + 5 with a maximum of 45 The value for field goals from 36 to 45 yards is BASE – 10 with a maximum of 30. If the kicker had no successful attempt for more than 36 yards then this row will have a value of 1-5 The value for 46 to 50 field goals is BASE – 20 with a maximum of 20. Did the kicker not have an successful attempt in this range then the row will be 1-2. The value for 50+ field goals can exist only if the kicker had a successful attempt of 51 yards or longer. Otherwise this row will be left blank. The value for this row is strictly based on the longest successful attempt. Look at the table below to determine the value. Longest Card value 51 or 52 yards 1-1 52 or 53 yards 1-2 54+ 1 - (longest - 52) (*)

(*) The maximum value for the 50+ row is 8 Example: Jeff Jaeger of the 1989 Raiders had a percentage of 67,6 which results as 1-32 for the range from 26 – 35 yards. The range from 17-25 results in 1-37. Field goals from 36 to 45 yards get 1-22 and from 46 to 50 a value of 1-12. Since his longest successful attempt was for 50 yards he will not have a 50+ entry Rating Punt Returners Rating punt returners (and kickoff returners as well) is one of the most complicated tasks although all you need are the longest return (LG) and the return average (AVG). There is this special task to deal with row 1 and the asterisk value which uses some math. I think that there is no task in producing cards for the game that is more complicated than this one. You have to keep in mind that the value in row 1 or row 1* may be TD if the longest return of a returner went all the way into the endzone. The punt returners row 6 represents his average return yards. It has to be at least 5 yards below the longest return. If the average is greater than the longest return minus 5 yards than row 6 will get the longest – 5 yards as its value. This checking for decreasing values from rows 2 to 11 has to be done at this early stage because of the procedure to determine the values for row 1 and the asterisk value. Next do the rows 2 to 5 which are defined based on the value in row 6 Row 2 = Row 6 + 5 yards Row 4 = Row 6 + 3 yards Row 3 = Row 6 + 4 yards Row 5 = Row 6 + 1 yard Again check the rows 2 to 5 if every row has a value at least 1 yard below the row above Rows 7 to 12 are equally based on the value in row 6: Row 7 = Row 6 – 1 yard Row 10 = Row 6 – 4 yards Row 8 = Row 6 – 2 yards Row 11 = Row 6 – 5 yards Row 9 = Row 6 – 3 yards Row 12 = Row 6 – 6 yards Again check the rows 7 to 12 if every row has a value at least 1 yard below the row above. Row 12 gets automatically a “f” after the yardage meaning that a run number 12 results in a fumble (although this produces too much fumbles in the game but you can change the rules you play with). This was pretty straight forward so far but now we need some math for determining the value for row 1 and an eventual asterisk value. What you have to do is to check if the longest punt return in row 12 matches the average punt return yardage. If it does so this longest return will be the value for row 1. Otherwise this value will be the asterisk value and a value with less yardage has to be determined for row 1. This reflects that a rather long return is a rather exotic thing to happen. How do we achieve that? Let us do some math. The idea is that we take the average of the values of rows 2 to 12 and the longest return and compare that value to the average of the values from row 2 to 12. Avg1-12 = (LG + Sum (row 2, row 3, .... , row 12)) / 12 Avg2-12 = Sum(row 2, row 3, ... , row 12) / 11 Next determine the difference between those two. DIFF = Avg1-12 – Avg2-12 If that difference DIFF is less than 2 then take the longest return as the value for row 1 and no asterisk value will be determined. If that difference equals 2 or is greater than 2 then you will have an asterisk value which is the longest return. Then you will have to determine a value for row 1 which is done by the formula: Row 1 (with asterisk) = 12 * AVG – Sum (row 2, row 3, ... , row 12) Now we are nearly done. All we have to do is checking if the value in row 2 is at least 1 yard below the value in row 1 and so on for all rows from 2 to 12. Everything understood? Well, let us do an example and we will see that it is not that bad as it looks. By the way I will put an Excel sheet with this article that does all the match you need. Example: John Taylor of the 1989 San Francisco 49ers was a rather good punt returner. He had 36 returns with an average of 11,6 yards and a longest return of 37 yards. So lets get started. Row 6 will be the minimum of the longest return – 5 yards and the average return yards (Min(12;32) which results in a value of 12). Next we do rows 2 to 5. The third step is doing rows 7 to 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 17 16 15 13 12 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6

The next step requires that math mentioned above. Let us determine Avg1-12 and Avg2-12 Avg1-12 = (LG + Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 12 = (37 + 17 + 16 + 15 + 13 + 12 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 6) / 12 = 161 / 12 = 13,42 Avg2-12 = ( Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 11 = (17 + 16 + 15 + 13 + 12 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 6) / 11 = 124 / 11 = 11,27 The difference DIFF is 13,42 – 11,27 = 2,15 which means that we will have an asterisk result which is the longest return. The next step is to find the value for row 1 which is Row 1 = 12 + AVG – Sum (rows 2 to 12) = 12 * 12 – 124 = 144 – 124 = 20 * 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 37 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 37 20 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6

Everything ok? Just relax. It will not get heavier into math.

Determining Returner Positions This procedure is exactly the same for punt returners and kickoff returners. You need to know the total number of returns for a team and the number of returns for the 4 players with the most returns. For every returner (maximum of 4) you have to determine how his percentage of returns based on team totals is. The returner with the most returns will be returner 1. After assigning him number 1 deduct 40 of his return percentage. In step 2 you will sort all returners on the board based on the percentage (with the reduced percentage for returner 1). The returner with the highest value becomes returner 2 and will have his percentage reduced by 30. Step 3 is similar to step 2 except that you will have to deduct 20 from the percentage Step 4 is taking the highest ranked returner as number 4. Example: The 49ers of 1989 had two kickoff returners with Terrence Flagler and Spencer Tillman. Flagler had 32 returns (76%) and Tillman added another 10 (24%) which resulted in a team total of 42 returns. By definition Terrence Flagler became KR1. Deducting 40 from 76 his remaining value after step 1 became 36 Step 2 sees T. Flagler still the one with the most returns so he will become returner 2 as well. His percentage will be reduced by 30 giving 6. Step 3 has S. Tillman leading with a value of 24. So he is returner 3 and will have a reduced percentage of 4 The last step has T. Flagler leading again, so he will be returner 4 So T. Flagler is KR1, KR2 and KR4 while S. Tillman is KR3. Rating Kickoff Returners Rating kickoff returners is a task that is similar to that for rating punt returners. There are some differences but the procedure is the same. The kickoff returners row 7 (sic!) represents his average return yards. It has to be at least 5 yards below the longest return. If the average is greater than the longest return minus 5 yards than row 6 will get the longest – 5 yards as its value. This checking for decreasing values from rows 2 to 11 has to be done at this early stage because of the procedure to determine the values for row 1 and the asterisk value. Next do the rows 2 to 5 which are defined based on the value in row 6 Row 2 = Row 7 + 15 yards Row 5 = Row 7 + 2 yards Row 3 = Row 7 + 7 yards Row 6 = Row 7 + 1 yard Row 4 = Row 7 + 5 yards Again check the rows 2 to 6 if every row has a value at least 1 yard below the row above Rows 8 to 12 are equally based on the value in row 7: Row 8 = Row 7 – 2 yards Row 11 = Row 7 – 13 yards Row 9 = Row 7 – 8 yards Row 12 = Row 7 – 15 yards Row 10 = Row 7 – 10 yards Again check the rows 8 to 12 if every row has a value at least 1 yard below the row above. Row 12 gets automatically a “f” after the yardage meaning that a run number 12 results in a fumble (although this produces too much fumbles in the game but you can change the rules you play with). No we get to that math session again. The idea is exactly the same as it has been for the punt returners with the exception that the treshhold is not 2 but 3. Avg1-12 = (LG + Sum (row 2, row 3, .... , row 12)) / 12 Avg2-12 = Sum(row 2, row 3, ... , row 12) / 11 Next determine the difference between those two. DIFF = Avg1-12 – Avg2-12 If that difference DIFF is less than 3 then take the longest return as the value for row 1 and no asterisk value will be determined. If that difference equals 3 or is greater than 3 then you will have an asterisk value which is the longest return. Then you will have to determine a value for row 1 which is done by the formula: Row 1 (with asterisk) = 12 * AVG – Sum (row 2, row 3, ... , row 12) Now we are nearly done. All we have to do is checking if the value in row 2 is at least 1 yard below the value in row 1 and so on for all rows from 2 to 12. Example: Terrence Flagler of the 1989 49ers has had 32 kickoff returns, an average of 20 yards and a longest return of 41 yards. So row 7 will be 20 Next we do rows 2 to 6. The third step is doing rows 8 to 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 20 35 27 25 22 21 20 35 27 25 22 21 20 18 12 10 7 5

The next step requires that math mentioned above. Let us determine Avg1-12 and Avg2-12 Avg1-12 = (LG + Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 12 = (41 + 35 + 27 + 25 + 22 + 21 + 20 + 18 + 12 + 10 + 7 + 5) / 12 = 243 / 12 = 20,25 Avg2-12 = ( Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 11 = (27 + 25 + 22 + 21 + 20 + 18 + 12 + 10 + 7 + 5) / 11 = 202 / 11 = 18,36 The difference DIFF is 20,25 – 18,36 = 1,89 which means that we will not have an asterisk result. Row 1 will be the longest return of 41 yards Example: Spencer Tillman of the 1989 49ers was the second kickoff returner for the team with 10 returns, an average of 20,6 yards and the longest return going for 60 yards. I will focus on the last step after we gained the following card values: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 36 28 26 23 22 21 19 13 11 8 6

The next step requires that math mentioned above. Let us determine Avg1-12 and Avg2-12 Avg1-12 = (LG + Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 12 = (60 + 36 + 28 + 26 + 23 + 22 + 21 + 19 + 13 + 11 + 8 + 6) / 12 = 273 / 12 = 22,75 Avg2-12 = ( Sum(rows 2 to 12)) / 11 = (36 + 28 + 26 + 23 + 22 + 21 + 19 + 13 + 11 + 8 + 6) / 11 = 213/ 11 = 19,36 The difference DIFF is 22,75 – 19,36 = 3,39 which means that we will have an asterisk result which is the longest return. The next step is to find the value for row 1 which is Row 1 = 12 + AVG – Sum (rows 2 to 12) = 12 * 21 – 213 = 252 – 213 = 39 * 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 60 36 28 26 23 22 21 19 13 11 8 6 60 39 36 28 26 23 22 21 19 13 11 8 6