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The Russian Federation: International Monetary Reform and Currency THE BRICS AND ASIA, CURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM PAPer No. 4 — JuNE 2013 The Russian Federation: International Monetary Reform and Currency Internationalization Juliet Johnson THE BRICS AND ASIA, CURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM PAPer No. 4 — JuNE 2013 The Russian Federation: International Monetary Reform and Currency Internationalization Juliet Johnson Copyright © 2013 by the Asian Development Bank, The Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. Published by the Asian Development Bank, The Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Centre for International Governance Innovation or its Operating Board of Directors or International Board of Governors. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, its Council of Advisers, or the Board of Directors. This work was carried out with the support of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Mandaluyong City, Philippines (www.adb.org), The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada (www.cigionline.org) and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR), Hong Kong, China (www.hkimr.org). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution — Non-commercial — No Derivatives License. To view this license, visit (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/). For re-use or distribution, please include this copyright notice. Cover and page design by Steve Cross. Author’s Note The author wishes to thank Greg Chin, Andrew Barnes, Matthew Ouimet and Ben Forest for their thoughtful comments on an earlier version of this paper, as well as Irakli Japaridze for research assistance. Where feasible, sources that are available in English or English translation have been cited in order to provide maximum accessibility to an international audience. CONTENTS About the Project and Paper Series 1 About the Author 1 Acronyms 2 Executive summary 2 Introduction 2 The Russian Federation and the Global Financial Crisis 3 The Ruble in a Multicurrency World 6 The Ruble’s Potential as a World Currency 7 The Ruble’s Potential as a Regional Currency 8 The Russian Federation and the RMB 12 Russian Rhetoric, Chinese Realities 15 Works Cited 17 About ADB 20 About HKIMR 20 About CIGI 21 THE BRICS AND ASIA, CURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM THE RUSSIAN FederatiON: INTERNatiONAL MONetarY REFORM AND CURRENCY INTERNatiONALIZatiON ABOUT THE PROJECT AND ABOUT THE AUTHOR PAPER SERIES Juliet Johnson is an associate professor in the The BRICS and Asia, Currency Department of Political Science at McGill University. Internationalization and International Her research focusses primarily on the politics of money and banking in the post-communist world. Monetary Reform She is the author of A Fistful of Rubles: The Rise The disjuncture between global markets and an and Fall of the Russian Banking System, co-editor of international monetary system (IMS) based on the Review of International Political Economy and national currencies generates instability for global author of numerous scholarly and policy-oriented trade and finance. As the BRICS (Brazil, the Russian articles. She has been an advisory council member Federation, India, the People’s Republic of China for the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson [PRC], South Africa) and Asian countries have International Center for Scholars, a research fellow become more integrated into the world economy, in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution their governments have become increasingly aware and the A. John Bittson National Fellow at the Hoover of fundamental problems or challenges in the current Institution. At McGill, she has served as the Faculty of IMS. Arts’ associate dean (research and graduate studies) and is an elected member of the university’s board In December 2012, the Asian Development Bank of governors. She received her Ph.D. and M.A. in (ADB), The Centre for International Governance politics from Princeton University and her A.B. in Innovation (CIGI) and the Hong Kong Institute for international relations from Stanford University. Monetary Research (HKIMR) co-hosted a conference in Hong Kong, China. The conference examined: a range of views on the fundamental systemic problems that are a catalyst for international monetary reforms; views from the BRICS and Asian countries, as well as regional considerations regarding the measures that key countries are already taking to respond to the challenges of the IMS, including currency internationalization; and options and preferences for orderly adjustment of the IMS. The 10 papers in this series, authored by esteemed academic and policy experts, were presented at the conference in Hong Kong, China and were subsequently revised. These working papers are being published simultaneously by all three partners. JULIET JOHNSON 1 ADB • CIGI • hkimr THE BRICS AND ASIA, CURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM THE RUSSIAN FederatiON: INTERNatiONAL MONetarY REFORM AND CURRENCY INTERNatiONALIZatiON ACRONYMS relationship between ruble and renminbi (RMB) internationalization. The 2008 global financial crisis ADB Asian Development Bank encouraged the BRIC states (Brazil, the Russian APEC Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Federation, India and the People’s Republic of China BOFIT Bank of Finland [PRC]) to work together to demand fundamental BRIC Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and the People’s Republic of China reforms to the international financial architecture BRICS Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, the People’s and to move towards a multicurrency-based IMS. Republic of China and South Africa Promoting ruble internationalization has been CBR Central Bank of Russia central to Russian efforts in this regard, and has served CIGI The Centre for International Governance important domestic political, economic and symbolic Innovation purposes as well, yet Russian concerns about the US- CIS Commonwealth of Independent States dollar-based IMS and its simultaneous ambitions CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization for ruble internationalization have incompatible CU Customs Union implications for Russian attitudes towards the PRC EDB Eurasian Development Bank and the RMB. On the one hand, in principle Russian EEU Eurasian Economic Union leaders see RMB internationalization as a welcome EU European Union challenge to US dollar hegemony and have supported EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community using the RMB in the Russian Federation’s bilateral G8 Group of Eight trade with the PRC. On the other, Russian leaders G20 Group of Twenty are deeply concerned about the potential threat HKIMR Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research to Russian economic influence in the post-Soviet IMF International Monetary Fund sphere, especially in Central Asia, if the RMB’s role IMS international monetary system there races ahead of the ruble’s. PRC People’s Republic of China INTRODUCTION RMB renminbi SDRs Special Drawing Rights Fundamentally, what the world is facing SES Single Economic Space today is a serious systemic crisis, a tectonic TI Transparency International process of global transformation…This USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics period will be long and painful. No illusions should be cherished. VEB Vneshekonombank VTB Vneshtorgbank — Vladimir Putin1 WEF World Economic Forum WTO World Trade Organization The searing effects of the 2008 global financial crisis encouraged emerging market states like the Russian Federation and the PRC to work together EXECUTIVE SUMMARY to demand fundamental reforms to the international This paper explores Russian leaders’ views on reforming the international monetary system 1 Quoted in “Global Crisis is Systemic” (2012), RIA Novosti, (IMS), the potential role of the ruble in an January 16, available at: http://en.ria.ru/society/20120116/170772999. emerging multicurrency world, and the complex html. JULIET JOHNSON 2 ADB • CIGI • hkimr THE BRICS AND ASIA, CURRENCY INTERNATIONALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM THE RUSSIAN FederatiON: INTERNatiONAL MONetarY REFORM AND CURRENCY INTERNatiONALIZatiON financial architecture, calling for the transformation share prices. Russian banks and companies with of institutions such as the International Monetary foreign-currency loans were squeezed and credit Fund (IMF) in order to better represent their voices dried up. The crisis deepened through 2009, a year and interests. One of the central demands of the in which the Russian Federation’s GDP fell by 7.9 BRIC states was to move to a multicurrency-based percent. The swing from nearly 8.5 percent GDP IMS that would not depend on US government
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