Walled Lake Consolidated Schools

Walled Lake Consolidated Schools Lesson Planner for Technology-Enhanced Lesson

Date created: October 10, 2009 Teacher’s Name: Pam Shoemaker Grade Level: 8th or 9th Subject Area: Earth Science Unit Title: The Air Around You Title of Lesson: Exploring Regional Differences in Climate Change Approximate time required to complete lesson: 4-5 class periods

Computer Applications that that will be used: Excel. Students may use other applications as desired for their presentations.

Michigan High School Content Expectations Expectation Description Scientific Inquiry Identify patterns in data and relate them to theoretical E1.1D models. Scientific Inquiry Describe a reason for a given conclusion using evidence E1.1E from an investigation. Scientific Inquiry Based on empirical evidence, explain and critique the E1.1g reasoning used to draw a scientific conclusion or explanation. Scientific Develop and understanding of a scientific concept by Reflection and accessing information from multiple sources. Evaluate the Social scientific accuracy and significance of the information. Implications E1.2C Climate Change Based on evidence of observable changes in recent history E5.4D and climate change models, explain the consequences of warmer oceans (including the results of increased evaporation, shoreline and estuarine impacts, oceanic algae growth, and coral bleaching) and changing climatic zones (including the adaptive capacity of the biosphere).

Lesson Abstract: Most people understand that significant climate changes are predicted in the next century, but they may not be aware that these changes will likely vary regionally. Using climatological data from the University of New Hampshire's EOS-WEBSTER, users will obtain annual predictions for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation for Michigan and California to explore this regional variability. Data will span the years 2000 through 2100. Users analyze data using a spreadsheet application to interpret regional differences in climate change.

Goal(s): Students will gain an awareness that regional differences in climate change projections over the next century do exist and thus will likely require different mitigations strategies in response to these changes. Students also learn what climate changes are forecasted for their state.

Guiding Question(s): What predictions, based on a scientific projection model, can be made about the climate in Michigan over the next 100 years? Are there legislative policies in place that might impact the climate in Michigan?

Resources/Related Web Sites: 1. Complete Lesson Plan with Explanations from Carlton College’s Earth Exploration Toolbook: http://serc.carleton.edu/eet/climate/index.html 2. NASA’s Fact Sheet on Global Warming: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/ . Teachers should review this site prior to beginning the lessons to gain background knowledge. 3. Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change Site: http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html 4. EOS-Webster Teacher Resources (videos and images): http://eos- webster.sr.unh.edu/teachers.jsp

Activities/Procedures: 1. Facilitate class discussion about how projections are made by scientists; include a cautionary note about the limitations and uncertainties of any projection model. http://serc.carleton.edu/eet/climate/case_study.html 2. Distribute Excel data sets: There are four files with projected climate data (Michigan and California, annual averages 2000-2010). 1. Ave minimum temps, 2. Ave maximum temps, 3. Ave precipitation, 4. Ave solar radiation. 3. Students calculate averages by year for both states on all four spreadsheets. 4. Students copy/paste the averages onto another worksheet, then create scatterplots to make comparing easier. 5. Students work in groups of two or three to answer analysis questions. 6. Students compare climate policies of different states at the EPA website: http://epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/stateandlocalgov/state_planning.html#four 7. Students create a presentation to share what they’ve learned. Examples may include: poster, public service announcement, podcast, news article, video.

Important Vocabulary: Climate, region, trends, data, spreadsheet, compare, analyze, project, predict, average, maximum, minimum, precipitation, solar, solar radiation, inquiry, evidence, projection model

Ideas for Differentiation: The analysis tool used to explore these climate projections is Microsoft Excel and some familiarity with Excel is assumed. While the spreadsheet data manipulations required may be somewhat tedious, the Excel techniques used in

this chapter, replacing data within a spreadsheet and averaging columns or rows of data, are commonly used functions in business, accounting and finance, sales and marketing, science, engineering, and health care.

Students with physical disabilities may have difficulty using Excel; many of spreadsheet procedures require fine motor skills. If this is the case, provide examples of completed graphs for them to analyze.

Students may select their own method of sharing their learning, so students can self-differentiate according to their interests and talents.

Evaluation: Explain how you will assess, attach/link rubric if available. Box will get larger as you enter text. See Rubric on Website.

Notes regarding the political nature of global warming We must be smart about how questions are addressed and information is communicated. We should be careful, but in no way should that translate into avoiding the content. Climate change will be a scientific and public conversation for the lives of every American student in school today. It will effect their lives in many ways. As a subject to study, it is rich with interesting complexities, lively and dynamic and extremely well suited to engaging kids in science and revealing critical aspects of the ‘nature of science,’ such as the use of indirect measures and modeling, the changing of ideas based on new data, and the interface between science and society.

The content is part of our science standards and central to Earth Systems Education.

We can take lessons from Evolution education. Here are some tenants that could be borrowed:

-teachers should be very knowledgeable about the science itself. -the curriculum should focus on the science of climate change. HSCE’s do a great job of pointing the way, as does our OS Scope Curriculum

On weather and climate http://members.scope.oakland.k12.mi.us/unitdetail.aspx?id=362&el=76 On climate change http://members.scope.oakland.k12.mi.us/unitdetail.aspx?id=363&el=76 [lessons still to come]

Teaching Tips:  Start with undisputable fundamentals (nicely laid out in the HSCE): Earth’s greenhouse gases keep us warm so life is sustainable, (what are chemical mechanism that make this happen?) Earth’s climate history is discernable through paleoclimatic studies (ice cores, lake sediments (varves), marine shell composition), atmospheric chemistry has changed since the industrial revoutions – kids can analyze carbon emissions data

and average global temperature. Etc, etc….  Don’t accommodate or center on the false debate on whether or not climate change is happening or if it is human influenced. In the scientific community, there is no debate on this question, therefore it is a mis- characterization to host such conversations in the science classroom. Instead, engage students in real scientific questions like, how sound are projections from scientific models?  Often we have students who say, ‘I don’t believe in global warming, (as they may with evolution, the ancient earth, and now even some of the new conclusions of neurological research). Sometimes it is effective to say, “well, I am not requiring you to believe the content of the curriculum, but in this class we learn about the conclusions and processes of science, so that you are educated about one of the most influential forces in modern society.” Many people study religions to which they don’t belong, because in order to be educated, we must work to understand.

Answers to Climate Change Data Analysis Questions Examine the data in your four graphs to answer the following questions. 1. Are minimum and maximum temperatures predicted to increase by roughly the same magnitude over the next hundred years? yes

2. Which state is predicted to have the greatest increases in minimum temperatures over the next century? Michigan (7.5 degrees Celsius)

3. Which state is predicted to have the smallest increase in maximum temperatures over the next 100 years? California (5.2 degrees Celsius)

4. Which state is predicted to have the greatest increase in precipitation over the next hundred years? California (1901 mm increase)

5. What are the projections for solar radiation in the state that is predicted to see the greatest increase in precipitation? Does this make sense? There appears to be lower solar radiation for California annually in modeled future predictions. Yes, makes sense; since the precipitation is expected to increase in CA, that would imply clouds, so less sunlight would reach the land.

6. If you had access to more projected climate data, what data would you get for further analysis? Why?

Explore the potential impacts of climate change on Michigan. The information at the EPA website may be helpful: http://epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/stateandlocalgov/state_planning.html#four Use the information you have found, along with the graphs you have created, to consider these questions. 1. How might agriculture be affected (either positively or negatively) by the climate changes predicted for Michigan? If the minimum temperatures rise enough, there could be an earlier start to the growing season, and it could last longer. If precipitation increases, agricultural productivity could also improve in areas where irrigation is used currently and make produce less expensive to grow. Too much precipitation could cause pest problems, however, like fungus.

2. What are the projected impacts on forestry for Michigan? Higher temperatures could cause species to migrate north, as seems to be happening with the sugar maple, for example. Pests could be more abundant in warmer (longer growing season) locations.

3. What other industries in Michigan might be affected by the climate changes predicted for Michigan? Michigan’s ski industry could see a decline if there are warmer temperatures. Michigan’s fishing industry may be affected if lake temperatures rise; some species may not survive.

4. What health related impacts might occur as a result of predicted increases in temperature in the next century? Very warm summer temperatures already contribute to "bad air" days in which asthma sufferers and even healthy people are advised to remain indoors to lessen the chance of lung damage. Warming temperatures would make this a bigger problem.