MOVES Student Thesis Research Currently In Process As of 27 Nov 2007 NOTE: The below material is taken directly from the students’ most recent Thesis Progress Report Updates will be reflected during the course of their research

Alver, Yucel, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force Ozdogan, Murat, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force  Tentative Title o Implementing More Capabilities to Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Model  Area of Research o This thesis will implement solutions to some of the limitations of the existing Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) model. After implementation the modified model will be tested with a generic scenario to see if more realistic and reliable scheduling can be done.  Research Questions o Primary . Is it an important factor to consider attrition of or damage to Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) while executing a mission in a combat area? . How can it be accomplished to assign multiple UAVs to a single mission? . After scheduling is completed, if another mission with a higher priority is requested, how should be the algorithm to reschedule UAVs? o Secondary . Are the atmospheric conditions an important factor while choosing a UAV for planning a mission and do the atmospheric conditions have to be in deterministic or stochastic manner? . How can the terrain features be implemented to the model?  Discussion o The need for UAVs is distinctly increasing in today’s more technology-based combats. So the need for a more robust and realistic scheduling model is also needed to plan various kinds of UAVs to various types of missions with different constraints. To be able to do that, the model must deal with a lot of entities and variables. ASC-U is one of the models used for UAV scheduling with some limitations. o One of the most important limitations is not considering the attrition of UAVs, but UAVs are most likely to be used in live fire combat area. So the treats in the area is an important factor to be considered while assigning the number and type of UAVs for a mission. In the existing model only one UAV can be assigned to a single coordinate. But there are some situations that more than one UAV are needed to accomplish a single mission. ASC-U is not allowing users to make any changes in the schedule that is already completed. Since everything is changing so instantly in a combat situation, rescheduling will be a very important feature for a scheduling model. The concern about this problem is, if there is no UAV available for assigning to new mission, which mission is to be canceled. Since all types of UAVs can not be used in adverse weather, atmospheric conditions will be an important factor while assigning a UAV to a mission. The influence of terrain features (e.g., high mountains, over sea, desserts, jungle) on UAV mission accomplishment will be researched and important terrain factors will be implemented to the model. o After all implementations are done the new model will be run with a tested scenario to observe the differences between two models.  Advisor: Dr. Arnie Buss

Azimetli, Mustafa, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force  Tentative Title o Simulation of In-Squadron Pilot Duties in LANTIRN (Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night) Fighter Squadrons Using Simkit  Area of Research o Simulation of In-Squadron Pilot Duties in LANTIRN Fighter Squadrons Using Simkit. Simkit simulation tool will be used to address the shortages and qualifications of pilots needed in a Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night, or LANTIRN Squadron based on a given Operations scenario. o Simkit, Simulation of Pilot Flight Schedules and Other In-Squadron Duties, Simulation Analysis to Adress Shortages in Pilot Number and Qualifications  Research Questions o Given an operations scenario, what are the shortages in pilot numbers and qualifications in a LANTIRN squadron? o What is the ideal number of pilots to support a given operations plan?  Discussion o LANTIRN squadrons are special in the sense that they use a pair of navigation and targeting pods to fly low altitude high speed at night and employ Air-to- Ground weapons effectively. That capability requires extra pilot qualifications and ratings, putting more demand on the number of pilots needed to carry out planned operations. Pilots earn those qualifications over a long period and a non- qualified pilot can not fly these missions. As a result the required numbers of pilots with the necessary qualifications are needed to be determined in advance, so a proper planning can be made to raise and maintain that pilot force. There are also side duties that are performed by the pilots other than the flights. Simkit simulation tool will be used to simulate the flow of all these operations in a LANTIRN squadron enabling to see and answer aforementioned questions.  Advisor: Dr. Arnie Buss

Beris, Jonathan, LCDR, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o A Complex Adaptive System to model cultural aspects of Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations  Area of Research o The purpose of this thesis is to create a conceptual model of an agent based complex adaptive system that will act as stand-alone product focused on modeling cultural aspects of Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations as a proof-of-principle o Artificial Intelligence, Combat Modeling specifically toward modeling specific areas in SSTR Operations  Research Questions o What are the current analytical models used to model SSTR Operations and what are the capability gaps with respect to what is needed to provide a complete strategic picture to operations planners? o Can human cultural behavior be adequately represented in a model to provide descriptive analysis? o How can this system be developed to integrate with current analytical models/tools? o If an agent was to be defined as a program "that can be viewed as perceiving its environment through sensors and acting upon that environment through effectors." [Russell and Norvig 1995, page 33] Can an agent be adapted to any environment (any information or data passed to the agent’s sensors like social morays) and be used as a proof-of-principle for any geographic area? o What are the unique challenges in planning, analysis, decision support and rehearsal for the Navy in support of SSTR Operations?  Discussion o Civilian human behavior representation (HBR) is the most significant gap in representing political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure (PMESII) aspects of the operational environment in urban operations. Since, the military is being asked to perform operations beyond traditional warfare and conduct more SSTR operations, specifically in urban areas, as in most recently Afghanistan and Iran, being able to support civil authorities and promote peace requires the military to completely incorporate the urban cultural geography into their plans. o The objective of thesis is to create a documented methodology and algorithms to represent civilian populations and their behaviors in an urban environment during stability operations; to innovate a modeling framework for cultures and societies in the context of non-traditional warfare; and to implement a stand-alone product focused on modeling cultural aspects of stability operations as a proof-of- principle.  Advisor: Curt Blais

Betts, Rob, LT, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Examining the Possibility of a Deployable F/A-18E/F Simulator for Training at sea.  Area of Research o Deployable Simulators  Research Questions o Is a deployable F/A-18E/F training system feasible? o Will a deployable training system be effective/utilized aboard a carrier? o Can the same program be adapted/modified to conform to Legacy Hornets (F/A- 18C/D) or the Joint Strike Fighter when it arrives? o Will a deployable training system be cost-effective?  Discussion o Currently there is no deployable training system, simulator or otherwise, for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The Legacy Hornets (F/A-18C/D) have a laptop trainer called “TOPSCENE”, with very low resolution and fidelity. The pilot has a rudimentary stick and throttle attached to the laptop as control devices, and he/she may “fly” the aircraft through a virtual environment, simulating an attack mission. However, there is no Heads-Up-Display or any other instrumentation provided to the pilot, and the virtual environment itself is very low fidelity, providing little to no transfer of training to the actual aircraft. o A low-cost, deployable training system would be of great benefit to Carrier Airwings. During a six-month deployment, aircrew are required to maintain a certain level of proficiency in a number of weapon systems. Providing a trainer that would allow aircrew to simulate the carry and release of different types of ordnance would decrease the chances of “operator error” during actual combat missions. If real-time geographic data could be fed into the system, this would allow aircrew to practice missions based upon target and threat locations, increasing familiarity with the area and mission. o The first day of flying after a long port visit is always an adventure. Pilots have been out of their aircraft for over a week, sometimes. Having a deployable training system that would allow them to practice flight deck procedures and operations in the carrier environment would greatly enhance safety during flight operations. It would also give first cruise aviators, “nuggets”, the ability to continue to perfect their procedures while in the safety of the carrier.  Advisor: Dr. Mike McCauley

Bitik, Arif, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force Kulunk, Bulent, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force  Tentative Title o Transition Issues to Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) from Previous Generation Aircrafts  Area of Research o Examine the main differences about JSF compared to current aircraft types and define the transition process to JSF o Aviation, Human Factors, Training Systems  Research Questions o What safety and operational issues have emerged in the previous pilot transition between aircraft types in aviation history? o What are the technological advancements about JSF from the previous generation aircrafts? o Considering the history and differences about JSF what are the expected problematic areas during the transition process? o What are the possible training interventions to eliminate the possible problems during the transition process?  Discussion o The aviation is the thrust of technological developments. Most of the leading edge technology products are often used in aviation industry. As the technology changes, it requires also the users’ adaptation continuously. o When we look at the aviation history, we can see that the pilots needed more physical and mental abilities to fly their aircrafts as the technology advanced. Yet, countering these new requirements is not the only issue about adaptation for pilots. They have to solve the skill transfer problems too, such as cockpit interface and operational procedures, leading to possible negative transfer to new aircraft. o JSF is currently the most advanced aircraft, which also offers the best proportion of technology and affordability. Being one of the participating countries in JSF project, Turkey is going to equip its air force with this jet, which will also bring the aforementioned transition issues. Our research intends to offer a transition training guide to better come over this process with more effectiveness and safety.  Advisors: Joe Sullivan and Dr. Mike McCauley

Fears, Tellis, LT, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Modeling Social Network Responses to Shaping Activities in Unstable Environments for Theater Level and Ground Force Training  Area of Research o Human Factors, Training and Social Science theory will be utilized in determining the impact of social, economic and infrastructure changes to a social network.  Research Questions o When conducting training that will be utilized by troops on the ground or by warfare commanders in the planning stages of combat, one must ask how the local populous may respond to an action. o What is the relationship between a change in battle space environment brought about by military actions or the actions of other agents and the behavior of social networks? o How can training improve troops’ ability to elicit positive social influences following a change in the social, economic or infrastructure environments of a population?  Discussion o This thesis will attempt to identify relationships between a change in battle space environment brought about by military actions or the actions of other agents and the behaviors of social networks. The military desires to give war fighters all the training necessary to make competent command decisions that will enable them to complete the nation’s missions and save war fighter’s lives. This work will contribute by defining and exploring attributes of the combat environment involving social network behaviors and lay the foundation for training simulations.  Advisors: Dr. Deborah Gibbons and Curt Blais

Hatt, Ron, LT, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Simulacra-Based Tracking in a Simulated ASW Environment  Area of Research o Modeling simulacra-based tracking of surface and submerged contacts based on passive sensing using a discrete event simulation o Simulacra, Discrete Event Modeling, Defense Simulation, Particle Filter Tracking  Research Questions o Can simulacra improve overall tracking of surface and submerged vessels in a passive detection and tracking environment for a simulated submerged platform? o What behaviors should the simulacrum store in order to achieve an accurate representative of possible simulated contacts? o Does imposing physics (such as advance and transfer) in simulacra increase the accuracy of the generated tracking solution for agents in a general defense simulation? o Can general defense simulations utilize simulacrum-based tracking to maintain accurate tracking during increased contact course and speed changes?  Discussion o Passive contact tracking of a submarine is a difficult task that requires analysts to scour sensor data to develop an accurate solution. There are literally thousands of possible solutions for a detected contact’s bearing and bearing rate. The submarine captain, who has many years experience, can often discount many of the possible solutions. His experience and training builds a behavior model for many possible contacts or contact categories. o Particle filters can be used to generate the thousands of possible solutions for a contact’s current bearing and bearing rate. However, particle filters have weaknesses. Specifically, particle filters are limited to random walk trajectories that are poor models of submarine behavior and do not respect boundaries, such as those present in a littoral environment. Another specific weakness of particle filter tracking is the large number of particles required to gain an accurate track. This is due in large part to the random movement of the particles. o Darken and Anderegg (2007) define simulacra to be independent models of an agent’s perception of another simulation entity. A simulacrum is essentially a particle filter with behaviors. These behaviors help mitigate the weaknesses of particle filters, thus lowering the number of required particles to develop an accurate solution of a contact’s track. o Borovies uses simulacra (referred to as context-based particle filters) to simulate the tracking of a surface contact in a detection sparse simulation. He concluded that well formed behavior models applied to particle filters can increase the solution accuracy and decrease the number of particles required in general defense simulations.  Advisors: Dr. Chris Darken & John Falby Hemmelgarn, Ron, LT, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Physical Model-In-The-Loop Evaluation and Testing of a Long-range Gliding Underwater Vehicle  Area of Research o Design, test and evaluation of a long-range underwater vehicle utilizing Java SunSPOT Technology  Research Questions o Can Java SunSPOT technology be effectively employed to control / support long- range glider operation? o Can the same model be scaled up to include /support payload delivery? o Does the control system support expandability in communication and guidance to support tactical employment? o Is the long-range glider an economical option for employment in tactical situations?  Discussion o The design of a low-cost gliding unmanned underwater vehicle was outlined in the technical document by Gassier et al., “Implementing A Low-cost Long-Range Unmanned Underwater Vehicle: The SeaDiver Glider” published at Naval Postgraduate School in January 2007. The implementation left the challenge of an electrically economical, suitably powerful control system to support long-range tactical operations. Sun Microsystems has recently released the Java SunSPOT, a versatile Java based microcontroller that presents itself as a viable option. A recent Master’s Thesis by John Seguin simulated various candidate missions for an underwater glider. These simulations will be used to establish initial requirements for design, and can be modified post testing and data collection to reflect actual performance. o A thesis was also recently published at NPS simulating candidate missions for the notional long-range glider. Again, the existence of a suitable control system for the notional glider left the physical model in the loop tests unanswered.  Advisor: Dr. Don Brutzman

Kammerzell, Robert, Major, U.S. Army  Tentative Title: o Comparison of Target Acquisition Utilizing Immersive Display Technologies Within A Virtual Environment  Area of Research o Human Factors and Training theory will be utilized in determining the human capacity to identify a target within a virtual environment given two different visual input media devices for the same environment  Research Questions o When conducting soldier training, that will utilize either head-mounted display or a flat-panel monitor, within a virtual environment, what advantage of visual display systems is evident? o Is there an inherent advantage to utilizing one presentation method vice the other? o Does the time required to acquire the target within the environment vary based upon the visual immersion method utilized? o Are certain demographic users more likely to easily use one immersion system than another?  Discussion o The main question that the thesis will attempt to answer is whether there is a correlation between performance in a virtual environment and a real world environment given a visual target identification task. The U.S. Army desires insight as to what type of system is best suited to train specific tasks and to what extent advantages and disadvantages can be identified. o This research thesis will utilize three different visual inputs (HMD, flat screen and real world).  Advisor: Dr. Mike McCauley

Kibel, Brian, Maj., USMC  Tentative Title o Requirements and Specifications for the Behavior Analysis and Synthesis for Intelligent Training (BASE-IT) User Interface and Alternative-Branch Exercise Analysis  Area of Research o Artificial Intelligence use in training systems o Define the requirements and specifications for the BASE-IT tool to be used for exercise monitoring, after action review and exploring various courses of action in a MOUT training environment  Research Questions o What are the goals of MOUT training? o How might BASE-IT help achieve the goals of MOUT training or potentially provide for improved training? o What type of threats will the Marine Corps attempt to emulate (i.e. symmetric vs. asymmetric)? o What are the opportunities to utilize open source software for this training system?  Discussion o The BASE-IT user interface will give instructors and trainees ways to demonstrate and explore courses of action prior to execution of training. The trainees will be afforded the opportunity to explore the environment and examine previous tactics utilized to complete a particular phase of training. For the trainers, the interface will allow for a more tangible demonstration of how best to complete a specific scenario. o Additionally, during many training evolutions a Marine unit participates in, there is often an after action brief that covers how well the unit performed the mission they had been tasked. Many of the after action briefs deal with possible alternate courses of actions that may have resulted in a better outcome. It is likely that these suggestions may go unheeded if there is not a way to show the trainees how the scenario might have played out if they utilized the course of action recommended during the after action process. o One of the tasks in developing the BASE-IT is to allow flexible exploration of MOUT exercise courses of action. Such a capability would give the trainees a much more concrete idea of how other courses of action would have differed from the one they executed.  Advisor: Dr. Chris Darken & Perry McDowell

Kulunk, Bulent, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force  See Bitik, Arif & Kulunk, Bulent

Milliken, Michael, LCDR, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Examine/Model the Hughes Salvo Equation in a Littoral/Combat Operations Area.  Area of Research o Examine and model the use of Hughes’ Salvo Equations in a Littoral Combat Operations Area. The Salvo Equation could provide useful feedback in staying power needs for US warships when operating in close proximity to territorial waters of other nations. Specifically, we will focus on those areas that offer the greatest potential for problems for Naval warships, these are the Malacca Straits in Indonesia, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf.  Research Questions o Can Hughes’ Salvo Equations be modeled in a littoral environment? o What is the best combination of firepower, defensive power, staying power, and numbers? o What other factors or modifiers are needed to make the Salvo Equations more robust in a littoral environment? o What can be learned from modeling the Salvo Equations? o What information can be passed on to ship designers from this study to assist in assessing future naval warship requirements?  Discussion o Hughes’ Salvo Equations focus on three aspects of naval warship design characteristics. These are the Staying Power (a ship’s ability to stay in a fight), Defensive Power (a ship’s ability to defend itself against missile threats), and Offensive Power (a ship’s ability to deliver missile salvos or strikes against an adversary). The original intent of this model focused on blue water open ocean naval combat between two naval powers. Since the writing of these equations, our world has changed so that the only real open ocean navy is the United States. As our mission evolves, more US warships will be tasked to go into enemy territorial waters for a variety of missions. The future Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) was designed with that in mind, with the ability to operate more effectively in coastal waters. However, this ability has not been tested and the Salvo Equations do not address all the problems associated with this.  Advisor: Dr. Tom Lucas

Ozdogan, Murat, 1st Lt., Turkish Air Force  See Alver, Yucel & Ozdogan, Murat

Rippeon, Ryan, LTJG, U.S. Navy  Tentative Title o Modeling and Simulation in the Information Operations Range  Area of Research o Web based simulation and theory will be utilized in determining and displaying the necessities for visualization of a network attack  Research Questions o How can you measure and visualize a network attack? o How can you depict it to superiors in the chain of command so that they can understand? o What are the non-kinetic IO effects from an attack? o What are some social engineering IO techniques that can be modeled or simulated to produce a desired effect?  Discussion o Information operations have not been applied to modeling and simulation techniques. This thesis will explore that region of combat in order to better develop a high level picture of network based warfare.  Advisor: Joe Sullivan

Sebalj, Derek, Maj., Canadian Air Force  Tentative Title o Applications of Modeling and Simulation Techniques to training and Operations of Uninhabited Air Vehicles (UAVs)  Area of Research o Alternative Training and Operational methods of Uninhabited Air Vehicles using modeling and simulation techniques  Research Questions o Can new operators of UAV benefit from alternate viewpoints both within (telepresence) and outside (teleoperation) the aircraft for improved control and situational awareness? o What is the best way to present flight information to UAV operators? o Can controlled airspace volumes be better visually generated in real time and presented to UAV operators to reduce or eliminate airspace incursions and improve the safety of inhabited and uninhabited aircraft operating in close proximity?  Discussion o Despite the fact that UAV pilots and operators are not in the cockpit of the aircraft, most methods of controls for the operators are presented to them in a manner very similar to what the pilot in a real aircraft would see and use for the control of the aircraft and its mission equipment. There is an opportunity to use common modeling and simulation technologies to offer the operator and enhanced viewing and controlling environment for operation. Many of the cues that pilots in an actual cockpit rely on for situational awareness are not available to the UAV operator, primarily G forces from climbs, descents and turns. What is the best way to cue the operator to these aspects, or are they necessary at all? What is the best way to display flight and sensor information to UAV operators? Although UAVs generally require little or no hands on control while conducting most aspects of their operations (other than take-off and landing), they still require a human in the loop for decision making at various points during the mission. How can this command and control best be achieved, while allowing the operators to control more than one airframe at any one time? At what point should operators be advised of changes to in-flight parameters (instrument cross check, state of health of sensors and detections?  Advisor: Dr. Mike McCauley & Dr. Brent Olde

Whittington, Eric, Major, USMC  Tentative Title o SPEAR--Simulation of Populations' Environment, Actions, and Relationships. PMESII Model for Military Training Simulations and Analysis  Area of Research o Open source modeling of Political, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure systems (PMESII) regarding civilian populations  Research Questions o What factors are relevant to modeling relationships between people in social networks? What social networks are relevant to civilian populations when making decisions regarding civil-military actions? o Can non-kinetic models be derived and simulated? Will the simulation support staff training? o Can existing training systems be adapted to incorporate the new models? o What is the most effective way to track and transmit non-kinetic effects in those systems (modified HLA, DIS, or other)?  Discussion o Current MAGTF Staff level training simulations do not model non-kinetic activities. Current mission requirements are emphasizing stability MOEs rather than the traditional combat attrition goals. All DOD services and Homeland Security are interested in simulating non-kinetic effects using PMESII-DIME models. No open source framework exists that is a stand-alone and independent of existing training applications. Once the framework is established, the parameter space can be explored to evaluate parameters that closely model the population of interest. Analysis organizations are conducting research into accurate civilian cultural models. This research will explore the growing multidisciplinary research between the analytical sciences of Operations Research and the social sciences of Psychology and Economics. Since training simulations have a need to implement the final product, this can best be accomplished in concert with the research rather than sequentially after research completion.  Advisor: Dr. Chris Darken & Curt Blais