Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler

Supplementary Material to “Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions” Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler

Methodology

SM Figure 1: Scenario assumptions on GDP per capita across the three growth scenarios.

1 SM Figure 2: Scenario assumptions on fossil fuel extraction cost curves across the three fossil fuel availability scenarios. 2 SM Figure 3: Regional definitions in the REMIND model 1.

1The regional acronyms are as follows: USA – USA; LAM – Latin America; EUR – Europe; RUS – Russia; MEA – Middle- East; AFR – Africa; OAS – other Asia; CHN – China; IND – India; JPN – Japan; ROW – rest of the World.

3 Results - Emissions and their drivers without climate policy

SM Table 1: Cumulated emissions and emissions peaking in BAU scenarios. USA Europe China India Africa Worl d Total Cumulated BAU LO Fos 528 430 992 557 272 4274 2005-2100 BAU SL Gr 681 444 1143 642 364 5191 Emissions (Gt) BAU DEF 740 481 1261 701 382 5617 BAU FS Gr 774 505 1342 771 402 5981 BAU HI Fos 705 493 1329 851 465 6179 Total Cumulated BAU LO Fos 12.4 10.0 23.2 13.0 6.4 100.0 2005-2100 BAU SL Gr 13.1 8.6 22.0 12.4 7.0 100.0 Emissions (% global BAU DEF emissions) 13.2 8.6 22.5 12.5 6.8 100.0 BAU FS Gr 12.9 8.4 22.4 12.9 6.7 100.0 BAU HI Fos 11.4 8.0 21.5 13.8 7.5 100.0

4 SM Figure 4: Annual growth rates of Kaya factors between consecutive periods in BAU DEF.

5 SM Figure 5: Average shares of primary energy (top), electricity (middle) and liquids (bottom) for 2005-2050 (left) and 2050-2100 (right) in BAU DEF. These have been estimated by averaging the values over time, and then calculating the respective shares per type over the total.

6 SM Figure 6: Structural changes of final energy (top left), primary energy (top right), electricity (bottom left), and liquids (bottom right) in BAU DEF. Letters in black indicate the starting point in 2005 and movement towards/further from a vertex indicates increase/decrease of its share in the total.

7 SM Figure 7: Average differences in electricity (left) and liquids (right) shares between baseline variation scenarios and BAU DEF in the period 2005-2100. These have been estimated by averaging the values over time, then calculating the respective shares per type over the total, and then subtracting the shares between the respective scenario and BAU DEF.

8 Results - Emissions and their drivers with climate policy

SM Table 2: Cumulated emission reductions in 450 scenarios. USA Europe China India Africa Worl d Total Cumulated 450 LO Fos 311 235 636 362 266 2948 Emission 450 SL Gr 467 255 774 444 353 3853 Reductions (Gt) 450 DEF 520 285 886 501 377 4266 450 FS Gr 547 305 965 564 402 4620 450 HI Fos 476 295 957 652 461 4816 Total Cumulated 450 LO Fos 0.59 0.55 0.64 0.65 0.98 0.69 Emission 450 SL Gr 0.69 0.57 0.68 0.69 0.97 0.74 Reductions (% of BAU DEF emissions) 450 DEF 0.70 0.59 0.70 0.71 0.99 0.76 450 FS Gr 0.71 0.60 0.72 0.73 1.00 0.77 450 HI Fos 0.68 0.60 0.72 0.77 0.99 0.78

SM Figure 8: Changes in CO2 fossil fuel and industry emissions over changes in energy intensity and carbon intensity for the 450 scenarios. All values are expressed as average fractions of the equivalent BAU scenario. These have been estimated by dividing the value in each 450 scenario by the value of the equivalent BAU scenario, and then averaging in time for the depicted periods.

9 10 SM Figure 9: Decomposition of cumulated emissions and primary energy by source during 2005-2050 (left) and 2050-2100 (right) for the 450 scenarios.