Senior 8 Senior 9 Key 9 (Max Points 20)

Muistio

19.4.2008 Yksikkö Nimi Yhteystiedot

Senior 8 – Senior 9 Key 9 (Max points 20) ‘ NAME OF THE STUDENT:______

Grade:______Age:______

School:______

Professor’s name:______

Class:_____ D

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INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE STUDENT

 WRITE YOUR ANSWERS LEGIBLY. PRINT IF YOUR HANDWRITING IS NOT VERY CLEAR

 ANSWER IN THE SPACE PROVIDED

 YOU HAVE 90 MINUTES TO COMPLETE THIS ACTIVITY

 SHOW WORK IF ASKED TO DO SOME CALCULATIONS

2 Figure 1

1.-(A) How old would you like to live? (1 point) Answers will vary.

(B) Are you male or female? (1 point) Answers will vary

3 (C ) Do you think that a person of the other sex, with the same age as you now, would like to live as old as you? Why do you think so? (1 point) Answers will vary. Answer will become relevant for answers later.

2.- Do you think that adults, or people of different ages, would give different responses to question 1? If so, give reasons. (1 point) Answers will vary. Answer will become relevant for answers later.

3.- Shown in Figure 1 above are population pyramids for Finland for the years 1750, 1917, 2003 and a Projection for 2040. These are just comparisons of the distribution of the population by age for males and females in a particular year in Finland. They have that funny shape because we have put back to back the Male (left) and Female (right) population. Color or shade the bar where a finnish student your age belonged in 2003 and the bar where this student will be in 2040. What you mark should be consistent with the age you gave us on the front page. Write here, also, for what age class are the bars you marked in each case (that way we have your bar, and the numbers on the vertical axis that correspond to your bar).

(1/2 points) 1st, there should be a shaded bar (pen or pencil) in Figure 1 (year 2003) and a shaded bar in Figure 1 (year 2040).

(1/2 points) (Answers will vary. They depend on answer to question 1.B). If the student answered in question 1.B that he was M, then his shaded bars should be in the left hand side (dark blue) part of the year 2003 and year 2040 graphs, which is the Male side.

(1 point) (Answers will vary. They depend on age marked on front page and question 1.B) The bar chosen should be consistent with the age given in the front page. For example, a student that put 14 years old on the front page, should select the 5-9 bar in the year 2003 graph and, since in 2040 this student will be 32 years older, the student will be 47 in 2040. The student should shade the 45-49 bar in 2040. The student will not get full credit unless the right bars are shaded and the specification of the bars in writing is given.

4.- If I chose a person from Finland at random in 1750 and this person turned out to be female, what is the (approximate) probability that this person is younger than 25? Show work.

(1 point) The answer is: approximately 54.8% of female population below 25 in 1750. The student should look at the 1750 graph in Figure 1, and in this graph look at the right hand side (lighter blue). Then add the percentages corresponding to ages less than 25. Percentages are on the horizontal axis, the age classes on the vertical axis. The table below gives approximately the percentage of the population in the different age classes, as

4 given in the graph. The total of the student should approximately be very close to the total given in the last row.

Percentage of the female population below 25 for year 1750, Age class Percentage of the population in that class(approximately). Year 1750 0-4 15.5 5-9 10.1 10-14 10 15-19 9.7 20-24 9.5 Total 54.8% of female population below 25 in year 1750

What would be the answer if it was the year 1917?

(1 point) Answer is 50.2%.Similar work as above, but with 1917 (right hand graph of the 1917 pyramids).

Percentage of the female population below 25 for year 1917, Age class Percentage of the population in that class (approximately). Year 1917 0-4 11 5-9 11.5 10-14 10.5 15-19 9.7 20-24 7.5 Total 50.2% of female population was below 25in year 1917

And what would be the answer in 2040? (1 point) 26.1 %. Similar work as above, but with 2040 (right hand graph of the 2040 pyramids).

Percentage of the female population below 25 for year 2040 Age class Percentage of the population in that class (approximately). Year 2040 0-4 5 5-9 5.2 10-14 5.1 15-19 5.3 20-24 5.5 Total 26.1 % of female population will be below 25in year 2040

(1 point) ..For the student that answers also that aging seems to be happening in populations at any particular year, give also 1 point. Some students may not have

5 computed the above numbers. They don’t get those points, but if they answer this general statement only, they could get one point

5.- If I choose a person at random in 1750 and they don’t tell me that this person is either male or female, what would be the probability that the person is younger than 25? Did gender make a difference in 1750 when it comes to age? Are they independent events?

(1point) Students have to assume here that there is a fifty-fifty chance of being male or female. If that is the case, then the student computes

Prob(younger than 25) =prob(younger than 25 given that the person is female) 0.50 + prob(younger than 25 given that the person is male)0.5 = 0.548(0.5) + 0.562 (0.5) = 0.55

We calculated the probability that a male will be younger than 25 the same way we did it for females above in question 4.

So gender did not make much difference because the probability of being younger than 25 for everybody in 1750 is very close to the the probability of that for females. They are independent events.

Students may go a less formal way and just compute the probability for males and compare it with the one for females that they computed earlie. Since we are approximating, if the percentages are close, then gender does not make much difference. Students then should conclude that the events are independent.

What would be wrong is for students to say that they are different and then conclude that the events are independent.

For full credit, the student needs to show some kind of reasoning.

6.- Here you have now the projected pyramid for India in 2040. Compare this pyramid with the one for Finland. What do you think are the reasons for the difference? State your hypotheses. What kind of data would you need to support your hypotheses?

(1 point) The students should compare the pyramid for India and the pyramid for Finland in the same year. Students should notice that Finland shows higher percentage of older population in 2040 than India. The population is getting older.

(1 point) What makes a population in a particular year? Births add to the younger population, deaths decline the older population, immigration can add to both populations, migration to other places can decrease both populations. Higher birth rate in India and smaller life expectancy (as compared to Finland) lead to predicting aging of the population in Finland, but a young population in India.

6 Even if students have not studied in their geography classes India, they should be able to reason logically about one or more of those reasons mentioned above and give a reasonable explanation.

7.- Write a paragraph telling your (should have said the) country’s president what kind of services and issues the government should start addressing now if it wants to be ready to satisfy the needs of the population in 2040. Write a paragraph with recommendations to the government of India.

For Finland: (1 point) They should plan on constructing more services for the elderly, more assisted living homes, more entertainment for old people to satisfy the needs of the increasingly aging population. They will not need so many schools or services for children. Also, they should provide incentives for families to have more children, since the percentage of young people is shrinking.

For India: (1 point) Quite the opposite, build more schools and services for the young, because they are bound to remain a large percentage of the population. Improve the living conditions of the population so that they live longer. 8.- Shown below is the response of 20 girls (F) and boys (M) your age to the question we asked you in question 1. The survey was done in 2007. We chose these students at random from the population of 14 year old students in Finland. Construct a graph, table and summary statistics that compare the two groups. Do you think there is much difference between the two groups in what concerns how old they want to live? Explain. Explain also

7 whether we could use the conclusion here to describe the whole population of 14 year olds in Finland.

Table 1. How old do you want to live? Student How Gender (1 point) Conclusion: The girls in this group tend to want old M=male to live longer than the boys. We can see that from the you F=Fema histogram, where the ages for most girls are on the right want le hand side of the graph, whereas the ages for the boys to are all over. live We can also see from the summary statistics (the median (OLD) and mean age they want to live is higher for the girls). ? Ranjiham 90 F (1 point if they mention) There seems to be an extreme Deva 91 M case. The student that said 150. He is all by himself. Adhi 99 F The conclusions do not change if we take him out. Aadil 75 M (2 points) Work. Students should show some kind of A’waan 65 M graph showing the difference between the boys and girls Jeevitha 30 F and some summary statistic. For example, the ones Abaan 55 M shown below. Anaya 68 F Acacitli 120 M (1 point) Since this sample is random, potentially we Atzi 122 F could use the conclusions here to generalize to all boys Abinaash 58 M and girls in Finland. However, the sample is a little too Aadab 60 F small and we would be hesitant to generalize. Abanindra 30 M Delisha 99 F Adelarachan 150 M Reija 120 F Sari 88 F Abanindra 100 M Koshela 100 F Tamarai 120 F Gender Min Median Mean Max M 30.00 75 82.67 150 F 30 99 90.5 122 M(without 30 75 79.33 120 the 150 one)