Development of Innovation Strategies for Government and Corporations on the Basis of Roadmaps

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): 12 & 13 May 2011

FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations

Development of innovation strategies for government and corporations on the basis of roadmaps: experience of the HSE

Authors: Oleg Karasev [email protected] Konstantin Vishnevskiy [email protected] Sponsors: Russian companies (RUSNANO, etc.) and federal ministries (the Ministry of Education and Science, etc.) Type: National FTA exercise Geographic Russian Federation, World Coverage: Scope: Innovation strategies Applied Methods: Roadmaps, Wild cards and Weak signals, Backcasting, Cross-impact analysis, Interviews, Expert panels Evaluation: The results of research were discussed with leading Russian and international experts, they are used in decisions making process by the companies customers, public authorities and technology platforms Impacts: The research promotes building of priorities for the public and corporate policy in different innovation areas including support of R&D and commercialization. Organiser: National Research University “Higher School of Economics” (HSE), Foresight Centre Duration: 2008-2010 Budget: n/a Time Horizon: 2020 Date of Brief: April 2011

Keywords: Foresight, Roadmapping, Nanotechnologies, Innovation strategies

Purpose The HSE Foresight Centre performs a series of research projects related to roadmapping for different sectors of economy. The most significant projects in this area are released for corporate customers (the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies, etc.) and public authorities (the Ministry of Education and Science, etc.). The purpose of these researches is to reveal perspective market and technology trends in the middle- and long-term period (mostly till 2020) and to build the innovation strategies on their basis.

Background & Context consequences in the S&T became a major worldwide trend of the last two decades. The interest towards long-term future studies is growing Rapid emergence of future studies aimed at also in Russia. The goal of major researches is to identification of promising S&T and innovation investigate the most prospective innovation areas and assessment of decision-making

of 4 Development of innovation strategies for government and corporations on the basis of roadmaps: experience of the HSE strategies for various economic activities with policy priorities. The areas characterizing by high participation of leading experts. national S&T and production level at different Different Russian companies and public bodies stages of technological chain and at the same time begin to create their innovation strategies on the by the positive estimations of market prospects basis of Foresight and roadmaps. For example, the were discovered. These areas should be considered strategy of the Russian Corporation of as the most perspective for the investments in Nanotechnologies until the year 2020 points on the manufacturing. The branches which have good necessity of employing roadmaps for building a market prospects but insufficient technological vision of innovation development in the development in Russia were also studied. In that nanotechnology field: "Corporation participates in case the development of R&D up to a competitive development of mid- and short-term forecasts and level (for example, by the means of the federal goal- plans of scientific, technological and market oriented programs) or application of imported nanoindustry development, i.e. roadmaps. technological base should be recommended. In the Roadmaps will be used by the Corporation as an areas combining market and technological risks in instrument for orientation and support of other different proportions the search of venture innovation projects is possible. participants of innovation process, and for development of investment projects", says this Basically the roadmaps are aimed at definition document. of perspective innovation strategies for priority The attention on the tools of long-term forecast areas determined on the basis of Foresight. The and planning is growing due to strengthening of methodology of roadmapping implied by the HSE innovation activity of public-owned companies assumes a combination of various approaches for which elaborate the innovation development the analysis of innovation strategies – from the programs since 2010. The governmental point of S&T and manufacturing development recommendations provide that “it’s necessary to (technology push), and also considering future ensure complex innovation system of company demand (market pull). As a result the concept of the including adoption of the documents defining main Integrated roadmaps has been elaborated. priorities of its technological development (e.g. Roadmaps developed by the HSE reflect technology roadmaps)”. development prospects of particular product groups The Foresight studies performed by the HSE (e.g. carbon fibre, light-emitting diodes, catalysts meet different challenges concerning definition of for oil processing) or whole industries (space and aircraft industry, nuclear energy, medicine, etc.).

The research uses different Foresight methods including roadmaps, expert panels, etc. They are FTA Process represented in the table below.

The roadmaps have been developed with the Method Output participation of leading experts in each subject area. Scanning Investigation of the environment The expert group usually includes ~100 Russian Experts communication Consensus view of product and international specialists. Seminars group’s prospects The concept of research is based on a concerted Verification of roadmap issues view of development prospects that is shared by all Review of roadmapping best key scientific, research, business and public Literature practice organizations. review Desk research Bibliometrics Trends highlighting and patents List of experts

of 4 Development of innovation strategies for government and corporations on the basis of roadmaps: experience of the HSE

Key challenges product features and potential List of prospective products and markets Benchmarking technologies, their key Strengths and weaknesses, characteristics SWOT- opportunities and threats of Verification of prospective analysis national R&D and manufacturing product range sector Wild cards Interviews Expert’s view of key product Areas of potentially high but and Weak features uncertain demand potential Key trends of product range signals Verification of the list of key Final document which integrates technologies and products Roadmap the results of all methods are Expert panels Evaluation of market dynamics listed below and long-run factors of development Scenario Scenarios of market segments seminars development Vision of the future of subject Backcasting area Cross-impact Development of paths "R&D – analysis technologies – products – markets" Evaluation of correlation between

analysis of the paths “R&D – technologies – products – markets” on the basis of roadmap Output & Impacts performs as an important applied relevance. The roadmap illustrates the links between the The roadmaps developed by the HSE are key technologies which an industrial development resumptive documents performing multilevel relies on, the properties of existing and advanced system of strategic development of the subject area products, and the most promising products and their within the uniform time scale, containing indicators respective market shares whose sizes and growth of economic efficiency of the potentially rates, in turn, would determine the demand for prospective technologies and products which products. This document explains the structure of possess the high demand potential and attractive demand for innovative products and outlines their consumer properties. The roadmaps are created most prospective markets. It provides an assessment using both qualitative and quantitative methods, the of technical capabilities required for manufacturing expert community survey data and evidence-based of products with the most preferable consumer analytics. properties which would allow generating the The conception of Integrated roadmaps is significant competitive advantages for innovative formed as a combination of two documents: a goods. technology roadmap demonstrating new products, The roadmap allows launching a strategy for the technologies and R&D which are utmost important subject area and gives an opportunity to link its in achieving the settled goals, and a business map development with other related industries (suppliers containing economic appraisal and comparison of and consumers of related products/technologies). alternative paths of future development. The

of 4 Development of innovation strategies for government and corporations on the basis of roadmaps: experience of the HSE Outcome & Evaluation The roadmap gives an outlook of different possible paths of innovative development. Different types of strategies are usually reviewed. The roadmaps developed by the HSE have a wide practical application resulting in subsequent The main goal of an aggressive strategy is the formation of investment projects. To meet this development of the most prospective technologies challenge a complex of independent expert to the world highest level ensuring Russian products information is given. The important application of competitiveness in comparison with the leading the roadmaps is the development of paths «R&D – producers. This type of strategy should promote the technology – product – market» on their basis. Such projects which have the highest market potential trajectories are aimed at detailed description of and/or importance from the other points of view (for possible strategies of commercialization on example which meet significant social challenges). concrete markets — what products should be The active strategy can be oriented at supporting created; what level of their consumer properties will different producers of innovative products which allow them to compete with other similar goods are potentially competitive. The strategy (including imported ones) each moment in time; presupposes active government participation, the what kind of new technologies should be introduced willingness and readiness to respond to all to obtain the required product properties. perspective initiatives suggested by market actors. Launching of roadmaps helps to generalize the Employing the active strategy is possible regarding expert community views on innovative all groups of innovation products in the case of its development ways in different areas. The HSE economic appropriateness and if some teams of roadmaps provide an example of advanced specialists and managers able to carry out are communication platform discovering the available. possibilities to reveal and discuss actual problems in the sphere of economic and technological development, to set shared goals and control activities of the research groups, manufacturers, distributors and consumers of innovative products. Sources and References 3. Karasev, O. and Lavrov, V., Foresight and roadmaps for energy saving and power efficiency, Information resources 1. Karasev, O. and Vishnevskiy, K., of Russia, 2010, №4, pp. 18–23 (in Forecasting the development of Russian). prospective materials using Foresight 4. Vishnevskiy, K., The Roadmaps for methods, Foresight, 2010, № 2, pp. 58– Nanotechnologies: Russian Experience 67 (in Russian). in Carbon Fibers and Water Purification, 2. Karasev, O. and Tokarev, B., Roadmap Book of abstracts: The 11th European for nanotechnologies in aerospace, The Meeting on Environmental Chemistry, 9-th international Aerospace conference, Portoroz, Slovenia: University of Nova MAI, 2010, pp. 69–70 (in Russian). Gorica, 2010.