Title: Mapping Climate Change Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of Smallholder Agricultural

Title: Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies

Journal: Climatic Change

Authors:

Claudia Bouroncle1*, Pablo Imbach1, Beatriz Rodríguez-Sánchez2, Claudia Medellín1, Armando Martinez-Valle2, Peter Läderach2

Affiliations:

1. Climate Change Program, Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Centre (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica 2. Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area (DAPA), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia

* Corresponding author e-mail: [email protected] Supplementary Material 3. Values of growing season and climate parameters used as inputs for the EcoCrop model to determine distribution range and suitability index for cash and subsistence crops in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Annual growing season (days) Temperature variables (°C) Rainfall variables (mm) Sources Gm Gma Tkm Tmi TOPmi TOPm ROPmi Crop in x p n n ax Tmax Rmin n ROPmx Rmax maize 65 365 0 15 21 25 28 500 1000 1800 2000 Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley J (2008) Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Global Biogeochem Cycles. doi:10.1029/2007GB002947 beans* 90 170 0 13. 17.5 23.1 25.6 200 363 450 710 Beebe S, Ramírez J, Jarvis A et al (2011) Genetic 6 improvement of common beans and the challenges of climate change. In: Yadav SS, Redden RJ, Hatfield JL et al (eds) Crop adaptation to climate change. Blackwell, Richmond, pp 356-369 coffee 210 330 0 15 19 22 29 900 1100 2000 3000 Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley J (2008) Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Global Biogeochem Cycles. doi:10.1029/2007GB002947 cassav 180 365 0 15 22 32 45 300 800 2200 2800 Ceballos H, Ramirez J, Bellotti AC et al (2011) a Adaptation of Cassava to changing climates. In: Yadav SS, Redden RJ, Hatfield JL et al (eds) Crop adaptation to climate change. Wiley- Blackwell, Hoboken, pp 411-425 plantai 365 365 8 12 22 26 29 1100 1400 3000 4000 Expert judgement, Dr. Siles (Musaceae n specialist) sorghu 90 270 14.5 17. 26.7 37.4 39.1 160 500 1800 2780 Ramírez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Läderach P (2013) m 8 Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agric For Meteorol 170:67-78 upland 80 200 0 16 25 35 38 1000 1500 2000 4000 FAO (2000) The Ecocrop database. rice http://ecocrop.fao.org/ecocrop/srv/en/home. Gmin, Gmax: minimum and maximum duration of the growing season Tkmp: absolute temperature that would kill the plant Tmin: average maximum temperature where plant will grow TOPmin, TOPmax: average minimum and maximum temperature where plant growth is optimum Tmax: average maximum temperature where plant growth ceases Rmin, Rmax: minimum and maximum rainfall ROPmin, ROPmax: minimum and maximum optimum rainfall * Variables for a single growing season