<Learning Impacts from a Foresight Exercise: an Accompanying Social Research Study>

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): 12 & 13 May 2011

FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations

Authors: Doris Schartinger> [email protected] Doris Wilhelmer> [email protected] Dirk Holste> [email protected] Klaus Kubeczko> [email protected]

Sponsors: The accompanying social research study was financed by the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT).

Type: Accompanying social research study to Foresight on EU level. Geographic Geographical area under scrutiny is the EU. Coverage: Scope: Our foresight case is situated in the transport and energy sector. Applied Methods: Large group methodologies were applied to enable four highly interactive fora with up to 90 participants within the foresight case. The accompanying social research study was designed to capture learning and networking impacts on part of the participants. It was based on three types of qualitative and quantitative surveys in the course of the foresight process. Impacts: We empirically analysed immediate learning impacts in the course of a large participatory foresight process. The research questions guiding the empirical analysis were: How can we operationalise and measure learning in the context of a large foresight process? And: How can we operationalise and measure networking in a large foresight process? Organiser: Organiser of foresight process: DG TREN, Organiser of accompanying social research study: AIT Duration: <2008-2010> Time Horizon: <2050> Date of Brief: 2011

Keywords:

Purpose of the Accompanying Social Research Study The purpose of the accompanying social research study was twofold: First, we wanted to introduce a concept for accompanying social research of a large participatory foresight process in order to empirically grasp immediate learning impacts. Secondly, we empirically analysed immediate learning impacts in the course of a large participatory foresight process. The research questions guiding the empirical analysis were: How can we operationalise and measure learning in the context of a large foresight process? Learning thereby involves different levels of learning: Individual learning, group learning, organizational learning, system level learning etc. And: How can we operationalise and measure networking, i.e. the establishment of personal ties which enable exchange of information and hence learning, in a large foresight process?

of 4 : </p><p>The Foresight Case in Focus Given the large scale of the foresight case (up to 90 participants in four fora, budget >3 mio EUR, duration > 3 years), deliberate participation was guaranteed through four The foresight case in focus involved bringing in large and highly interactive fora using large new knowledge, perspectives and stakeholder group intervention techniques derived from groups into an established field. Creating channels organizational development theory (world for communication between participants from café, open chair discussion rounds, business, policy, civil society and R&D overcoming interactive poster sessions, etc). sectoral boundaries was an explicit goal from the beginning. Stakeholder participation in this case Methodologically, the assessed foresight was defined as inviting representatives of research, case relied on an overall architecture and business, policy, and civil society explicitly as methods of organisational development “experts” who take part in a strategic dialogue on (OD), which were particularly focussed on long term-oriented issues. changes of thinking and action of stakeholders. The application of OD The expertise of participants were intentionally concepts and instruments throughout all taken up as deliberative input and shaped the phases of the foresight case was assumed to content and tangible results of the foresight process, maximize interaction, collaboration, and leading to robust scenarios, recommended action learning among stakeholders in this plans, visions and background reports. foresight system.</p><p>Methodologies of Accompanying Practitioner model of field research: Within moderated workshops a survey and Social Research discussions were conducted within the project group conducting the foresight process. Within this Learning impacts of foresight processes may be foresight project group, organisational development subsumed under various categories which we tried (OD) researchers acted as counselors trying to to incorporate in our accompanying social research intervene in social systems in order to provoke study: i) the acquisition of social capital (e.g., change (Schein, 1995; Grossman, et al., 2007). establishing new contacts, building networks); ii) Hence in the moderated workshops, foresight the acquisition of factual knowledge and counselors and the foresight project group evaluated understanding (new insights derived from their roles during the stakeholder fora as well as discussions and multiple perspectives); and iii) the other impacts, by (1) meta-reflecting and changing development of strategic alternatives (Amantidou & the own observation and intervention patterns (2) by Guy, 2008). evaluating the process as a whole and (3) by Following Lewin (1953), Schein (1995), and carrying out a qualitative survey within moderated Grossman et.al. (2007), we distinguished and workshops of the project-group after each applied three different approaches of accompanying stakeholder forum. Questions addressed mutual social research to analyse immediate learning learning processes, short-term impacts, and the impacts of foresight: To assess immediate impacts evaluation of the overall design and process of the practitioner model of field research; participatory stakeholder fora. ethnography research and experimental social research were applied. Participatory ethnography research:</p><p>Page 2 of 4 <Title>:</p><p>According to Schein (1995) and Grossman et al. network analysis (SNA) approach was applied, (2007), researchers participate within day-to-day reducing the observed part of the complex life of social systems yet try to minimize influence communication and learning process to different or set interventions. Results take the form of inter- categories of established ties between participants views of (system) participants. To capture various of foresight fora. SNA, which assumes that actors kinds of immediate impacts from the foresight case, are embedded in a web of social interrelations, telephone interviews were carried out after each of provides a set of methodologies and tools to forum. These findings should produce insights on understand internal communication, organization experiences of participants during the foresight and aspects of their formation (Heimeriks, process and possible transformation processes in Hörlesberger, & Besselaar, 2003; Coromina, Guia, their respective home organizations in a real-time Coenders, & Ferligoj, 2008). A questionnaire was context. Around 20 percent of particpipants were designed and distributed both at the beginning and interviewed by three members of the accompanying end of every forum, listing names of participants social research team, resulting in all in 71 and asking each participant to quantify the level of interviews (interviews took 15-20 minutes each) acquaintance to all remaining ones. The difference Qualitative content analysis was applied in order to in levels of acquaintance before and after every extract information from interviews. forum served as a proxy for the number and quality of established ties during the fora (qualitative and Experimental social research: quantitative statistical network analysis was applied Here, the observer implements a lab-like in order to extract information from questionnaires). environment trying to minimise influence on the The team of researchers conducting the observed object. Results are quantitative key figures accompanying social research were external claiming to describe “the reality of observed object” observers. apart from the observing researcher. Here a social</p><p>Learning Impacts perceiving oneself as being part of a system and enhances a clearer view on one’s own role in the system. Interdependencies between the various The immediate learning impact of a large scale actors become more apparent which on the whole foresight project was analysed with three methods results in a more comprehensive big picture on the of accompanying social research. First, the system level. Thirdly, we tried to empirically grasp practioner model was applied in an analysis of the the increase of personal ties between participants of FORESIGHT process within moderated workshops. a large foresight process by means of a social Learning in this context mainly referred to the network analysis. We assume that these ties reflect creation of cultural islands and increased some extent of exchange of information and hence identification of participants with the foresight enable learning processes. Overall the number of process. Secondly, a qualitative analysis was newly formed acquaintances more than tripled conducted in an ex post-facto analysis where during fora; the network diameter settled on a low individual learning impacts derived from the size of three ties. A higher density and average foresight process in focus were captured in different degree centrality, as well as lower diameter, are questions. The main result here is that the major reflective of a higher flow of information, achievement of a large participative foresight individual perception as the context of other process with respect to learning is probably the stakeholders becomes clearer, and contact potential adding of details out of the contexts and rationalities for engaging partners in future agendas (Schartinger of various stakeholders to a multi-dimensional et al., 2011). picture on the system-level. This results in</p><p>Page 3 of 4 <Title>: Conclusions learning processes during the foresight exercise may provide guidance in situations A further step in the research of impacts of with high degrees of unpredictability, which foresight would be to analyse in depth how become effective in the organizations participants of a foresight process deal with participants originate from. what they have learnt during the foresight process once they return in their usual However, it is a great challenge to surroundings and home environment(s). In methodologically grasp different kinds of principle, large participatory foresight impacts over time, to isolate the processes induce participants to carry new contribution of foresight processes to impulses in their home organizations. complex and continuous processes like Previous strategic dialogues and mutual strategy finding and policy formulation will always be achieved only in part.</p><p><Sources and References> Heimeriks, G., H., Hörlesberger, M. and Besselaar, P. van den (2003), “Mapping communication and collaboration in heterogeneous research networks“, Amanatidou, E. and Guy, K. (2008), “Interpreting Scientometrics, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 391-413 foresight process impacts: Steps towards the Lewin, K. (1953), Die Lösung sozialer Konflikte. development of a framework conceptualising the Ausgewählte Abhandlungen über Gruppendynamik, dynamics if ‘foresight systems’”, Technological Christian-Verlag, Bad Nauheim Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 75, No. 4, pp. 539-557. Schartinger, D., D. Wilhelmer, D. Holste, K. Kubeczko (2011), Assessing Assessing immediate Coromina, L., Guia, J., Coenders, G. and Ferligoj, learning impacts of large foresight processes. A. (2008), “Doucentered networks”, Social Submitted to Foresight Journal. Networks, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 45-59 Schein, E.H. (1995), “Kurt Lewin’s Change Theory Grossmann, R., Lobnig, H. and Scala, K (2007), in the Field and in the Classroom. Notes Toward Kooperationen im Public Management. Theorie Model of Managed learning”, available at: und Praxis erfolgreicher Organisationsentwicklung http://www.a2zpsychology.com/articles/kurt_lewin in Leistungsverbünden, Netzwerken und Fusionen, _’s_change_theory.htm (accessed 12 January 2010) Juventa Verlag, München</p><p>Page 4 of 4</p> </div> <div class="ft-cover"> <a href="#" id="scrollLink"><i class="iconfont icon-top-1-copy i-bottom"></i> Load more</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="about-item" data-tab-item="article"> <div class="article-container" id="loader"></div> <div class="load-content flex-column-center"> <p class="load-p" id="onLoadMore"><span id="surplus"></span></p> <p class="load-p" id="load-text"></p> </div> <div id="downTop"> <div class="reader-tools-bar"> <div class="tools flex-justify"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" title="previous page" class="tools-prev flex-justify"> <i class="iconfont icon-top-1-copy left"></i> </a> <input type="text" class="page-cur" value="1" /><span class="page-num"> 4</span> <a href="javascript:void(0);" title="next page" class="tools-next flex-justify"><i class="iconfont icon-top-1-copy right"></i></a> </div> <div class="bar-download"> <a href="javascript:;" id="copyLink"><i class="iconfont icon-lianjie i-size"></i> Copy Link</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <section class="recommend"> <div class="panel-box"> <div class="panel-success"> <div class="panel-heading"> <div class="panel-flex"> <div class="panel-left"> Recommended publications </div> </div> </div> <div class="panel-body"> <ul class="panel-body-ul"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div class="rw-right row-pd" id="side-right"> <aside class="side" id="side-list"> <div class="side-download"> <a href="/download/13638867/learning-impacts-from-a-foresight-exercise-an-accompanying-social-research-study" class="side-load-a flex-justify" title="Download"> <i class="icon-load"></i> <span>Download</span> </a> </div> <div class="side-tag"> <ul class="side-tag-ul"> <li><a href="javascript:;" data-tab-target="featured" class="active">Featured</a></li> <li><a href="javascript:;" data-tab-target="last" class="">Last Commenis</a> </li> <li><a href="javascript:;" data-tab-target="popular" class="">Popular</a></li> </ul> <div class="tab-items"> <div class="tab-item active" data-tab-item="featured"> <ul> <li><a href="/doc/13638866/institutional-learning-outcomes-assessment-fall-2014">Institutional Learning Outcomes Assessment Fall 2014</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638865/latin-american-revolutions-project">Latin American Revolutions Project</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638864/30xa-guide-specifications-80-to-500-nominal-tons-265-to-1740-nominal-kw">30XA Guide Specifications, 80 to 500 Nominal Tons (265 to 1740 Nominal Kw)</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638863/u-s-army-medical-department-activity-bavaria-s1">U.S. Army Medical Department Activity - Bavaria s1</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638862/the-university-of-tennessee-s2">The University of Tennessee s2</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638861/sohc-participation-criteria">SOHC Participation Criteria</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="tab-item" data-tab-item="last"> <ul> <li><a href="/doc/13638860/Blind-Rehabilitation-Centralized-Server-Installation-Implementation-Guide">Blind Rehabilitation Centralized Server Installation/Implementation Guide</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638859/kinesiology-phd-checklist">Kinesiology Phd Checklist</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638858/section-fife-coast-countryside-trust-fcct">Section: Fife Coast & Countryside Trust (FCCT)</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638857/all-reports-must-be-typed-in-arial-font-point-size-11-s2">All Reports Must Be Typed in Arial Font Point Size 11 s2</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638856/this-scholarship-is-in-recognition-and-appreciation-of-joanna-franklin-s-contribution">This Scholarship Is in Recognition and Appreciation of Joanna Franklin S Contribution</a></li> <li><a href="/doc/13638855/to-be-completed-at-time-of-permanent-exclusion">To Be Completed at Time of Permanent Exclusion</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="tab-item" data-tab-item="popular"> <ul> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="adspace"> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block" data-ad-client="ca-pub-8519364510543070" data-ad-slot="2167091933" data-ad-format="auto"></ins> <script>(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});</script> </div> <div class="side-message"> <ul> </ul> </div> </aside> </div> </div> </div> </main> <script> var totalPage = 4; 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