COFFEE and CLIMATE CHANGE

COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS (ICTP) AND THE FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY ON THE ISSUE OF COFFEE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Scientific Background

Coffee is one of the most traded agricultural crops. Arabica coffee represents about 60% of the total World production and it is the finest quality coffee in the market. Arabica plants are usually grown on highlands in tropical regions. The optimal annual average temperature for Arabica coffee ranges between 18°C and 22°C, the minimum annual average temperature is ~16°C and the maximum annual average is ~26°C. The Arabica plant tolerates extreme temperatures from a minimum of 7°C to a maximum of 30°C. Concerning rainfall, the Arabica plant requires 1500-1800 mm yearly precipitation (tolerating a maximum of 4000 mm) with a 2-3 months dry period (tolerating up to a 6 months drought). The dry season stimulates the flowering. On the other hand, a drought occurring between the 8th and 10th week after the fruit maturation can cause the fruits to fall, whereas a drought between the 14th and the 16th week can cause the occurrence of black beans, which are considered a severe commercial defect. It has also been observed that extreme high temperatures during the last 2-3 weeks of the maturation phase can cause a rapid maturation of the fruits which might cause a quality reduction. The flowers last for a few days and are very susceptible to average daily temperatures above 22°C during that period; at higher temperatures the physiological phenomenon of the star flowers, i.e. unfertile flowers, may occur.

Based on these considerations, global warming poses a concrete threat to Arabica coffee cultivation in terms of quantity and quality of production. By modifying maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation regimes and the occurrence of precipitation maxima and drought length and severity, global warming can affect the availability of suitable lands for Arabica cultivation and can impact negatively on the percentage of quality production. This is particularly relevant where Arabica coffee is grown under full-sun conditions, because extreme environmental conditions cannot be mitigated by the adoption of shading trees. Brazil is the primary example of full-sun Arabica coffee cultivation and it is also the country contributing to the largest world coffee production. In addition, present model projections of climate change indicate that both temperature and precipitation patterns over Brazil are expected to change under global warming conditions. Therefore, coffee cultivation in Brazil is at particular risk to global warming.

Despite this risk, little work has been done to date on the potential effects of climate change on coffee cultivation. In particular, the main bottleneck in this regard is the lack of a model that describes the physiological response of coffee crops to climate variables. Existing models are primarily spatial models simulating the land suitability for coffee growth. Therefore, the need is to better understand and mathematically model the physiological response of the Arabica coffee plant to changing temperature, rainfall and incoming solar radiation. Based on the considerations above, the ICTP and FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY propose to create a joint post-doctoral fellowship program aimed at better understanding and modeling the interactions between climate variability/change and coffee production. This program will involve the institution of a 2-years post-doctoral fellowship co- sponsored and jointly supervised by ICTP and FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY. Candidates from developing countries where coffee production is particularly important will be especially encouraged to apply. The call will focus on modeling of the physiological response of Arabica coffee plants grown under full-sun conditions to changes in climatic forcing. The selection of the candidate(s) will be done by a joint committee including members of ICTP and FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY. The selected candidate will be hosted at ICTP but supervised by scientific staff of both ICTP and FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY. The scientific contacts for this program will be Prof. Filippo Giorgi for ICTP and Dr. Giacomo Celi for FONDAZIONE ERNESTO ILLY.

Preferential requirements

- PhD on plant physiology, plant modeling - Knowledge of software for plant modeling - Knowledge of climate models

Application

Applicants are asked to send their:

- Recent Curriculum Vitae - Letter of reference - Motivation letter describing both your specific and general interests

To: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]