Supporting Information s41

Supporting information

Table S1 Seasonal subtype influenza virus with experimental human influenza Period Strain R0 (95 % CI) Data Reference source A(H1N1) 2000 – 2001 n.a. 1.12 Israel Barnea et al. (2011) 2000 – 2001 New 1.11 (1.07, 1.15) Norway Gran et al. (2010) Caledonia/20/99 2009 – n.a. a 1.15 (1.40, 1.90) 10 Nishiura et al. (2011) countriesb 2009 – n.a. 1.5 – 3.1 USA White et al. (2009) 1986 – 1987 Singapore/6/86 1.20 (1.09, 1.31) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 1978 – 1979 USSR/90/77 3.65 British Keeling et al. (2007) 1951 n.a. 1.9 – 2.5 England Vibound et al. (2006) and Canada A(H3N2) 2007 – 2008 n.a. 1.27 Israel Barnea et al. (2011) 2006 – 2007 n.a. 1.31 2004 – 2005 n.a. 1.25 2003 – 2004 n.a. 1.20 2003 – 2004 Fujian/411/2002 1.43 (1.08, 1.83) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 2001 – 2002 Panama/2007/99 1.13 (1.11, 1.15) 2001 – 2002 n.a. 1.26 Israel Barnea et al. (2011) 1999 – 2000 Moscow/10/99 1.69 (1.07, 2.45) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 1999 – 2000 n.a. 1.17 Israel Barnea et al. (2011) 1998 – 1999 n.a. 1.15 1998 – 1999 Sydney/5/97 1.29 (1.21, 1.37) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 1995 – 1996 Johannesburg/33/94 1.36 (1.22, 1.50) 1993 – 1994 Hong Kong/23/92 1.42 (1.22, 1.63) 1991 – 1992 England/261/91 1.35 (1.03, 1.71) 1988 – 1989 Sichuan/2/87 1.31 (1.10, 1.54) 1985 n.a. 1.5 France Flahault et al. (1988) 1984 – 1985 Victoria/6/84 1.31 (1.00, 1.65) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 1980 – 1981 Bangkok/1/79 1.36 (1.25, 1.47) 1976 – 1977 Victoria/3/75 1.35 (0.55, 2.46) 1975 – 1976 Victoria/3/75 1.30 (1.17, 1.43) 1972 – 2002 n.a. 1.35 (1.10, 1.60) USA Viboud et al. (2006) 1918 n.a. 1.5 – 2.5 Brazil Massad et al. (2007) Type B 1994 – 1995 Beijing/184/93 1.15 (1.14, 1.17) Norway Gran et al. (2010) 1992 – 1993 Panama/45/90 1.06 (1.02, 1.09) 1990 – 1991 Yamagata/16/88 1.10 (1.05, 1.14) 1987 – 1988 Victoria/2/87 1.07 (1.01, 1.13) 1983 – 1984 USSR/100/83 1.09 (1.05, 1.12) 1981 – 1982 Singapore/222/79 1.00 (0.06, 2.71) 1978 – 1979 Singapore/222/79 1.22 (1.00, 1.46) Canada Schanzer et al. (2010) a n.a.: not available. b Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, UK, and USA 2

Period SAR (95% CI) Data source Reference A(H1N1) 2009 10.3; 20.2 Canada Savage et al. (2011) 2009 36.6 Australia Teh et al. (2012) 2009 14.8 (8.9, 22.3) Australia Van Gemert et al. (2011) 2009 45 (35.6, 53.5) Canada Papenburg et al. (2010) 2009 11.7 (9.0, 14.3) New York France et al. (2010) 2009 45 (35.6, 53.5) Canada Papenburg et al. (2010) 2009 26.1 Osaka Komiya et al. (2010) 2009 27.9 Korea Lee et al. (2010) 2009 27.3 (12.2, 50.5) USA Yang et al. (2009) 1978 – 79 33.6 Hope–Simpson, Longini et al. (1982) Sutherland 1978 – 79 30.6 (21.9, 39.3) Seattle Pre 1978 39.9 Hope–Simpson, Sutherland A(H3N2) 1999 – 2000 18.1 France Viboud et al. (2004) 1999 – 2000 21 (18, 24) France Cauchemez et al. (2004) 1999 – 2000 43 (39, 48) 1999 – 2000 31 (28 36) 1999 – 2000 25 (22, 27) 1978 – 79 20.6 (16.5, 24.7) Seattle Longini et al. (1982) 1977 – 89 & 26 (23, 29) Tecumseh Longini et al. (1988) 1980 – 81 1977 – 78 14.7 (11, 18.4) Tecumseh Longini et al. (1982) Type B 1975 – 76 12.7 (7.8, 17.6) Seattle Longini et al. (1982) 1961 18.41 (11.4, 25.9) Osaka Nishiura et al. (2007) 1961 10.51 (12.6, 23.2) Table S2 Pandemic subtype influenza virus 3

Table S3 Human infection with cold–recombinant vaccine of seasonal subtype influenza viruses Strain Dose No. of Volunteers Reference (log TCID50) Tested/ % of Infected Infected A(H1N1) Texas/1/85 7.5 24/23 96 Sear et al. (1988) 7.5 16/15 93 6.5 12/7 57 5.5 18/12 67 4.5 8/7 86 California/10/78 4.0 15/11 73 Murphy et al. (1984) 4.5 9/8 89 Hong Kong /123/77 7.5 24/24 100 Murphy et al. (1980) 7.0 8/5 60 6.0 13/11 82 6.5 33/23 70 6.0 13/11 82 5.0 12/7 57 5.0 20/10 50 A(H3N2) Bethesda/1/85 7.5 19/14 74 Sear et al. (1988) 7.5 22/14 64 6.5 10/4 40 5.5 12/6 50 4.5 11/1 9 Washington/897/80 6.0 27/25 93 Clements et al. (1984) Alaska/6/77 7.5 24/20 83 Clements et al. (1983) 6.5 15/11 73 5.5 15/8 53 4.5 12/3 25 4.2 8/8 100 7.7 17/16 94 Murphy et al. (1981) 7.7 12/12 100 7.5 24/18 75 Scotland/840/74 8.5 12/12 100 Murphy et al. (1979) 7.5 10/8 80 Victoria/3/75 7.0 13/12 92 Type B Texas/1/84 7.6 29/29 100 Keitel et al. (1990) 6.6 14/11 79 5.6 8/3 38 4.6 8/3 38 3.6 6/1 17 Ann Arbor/1/86 7.5 21/11 66 Clements et al. (1990) 6.5 6/6 50 5.5 9/2 18 4.5 8/3 27 4

Table S4 Seasonal subtype influenza virus with antiviral drug used of neuraminidase inhibitors in experimental human influenza Drug Strain Dose No. of Volunteers Reference (log Tested/ % of TCID50) Infected Infected A(H1N1) Oseltamivir Taxas/36/91 6 16/15 94 Hayden et al. (1999) (Oral)a 6 16/14 88 6 16/14 88 6 16/13 81 Zanamivir Taxas/36/91 5 8/7 86 Calfee et al. (1999) (Intravenous) Zanamivir Taxas/36/91 5 61/8 13 Walker et al. (1997) (Intranasal) Oseltamivir Taxas/36/91 6 64/54 84 Gubareva et al. (Oral)a (2001) Peramivir Taxas/36/91 5.9 18/15 83 Barroso et al. (2005) (Intranasal)b 5.9 18/16 89 5.9 18/16 89 A(H3N2) Amantadine Beth/1/85 7.15 20/16 80 Reuman et al. (1989) (Capsule)c

7.15 20/12 60 7.15 19/13 68 Ribavirin Victoria/3/75 3.4 14/10 71 Magnussen et al. (Oral) (1977) Type B Zanamivir Yamagata/16/88 7 25/17 68 Walker et al. (1997) (Intranasal) Oseltamivir Yamagata/16/88 7 19/17 89 Hayden et al. (2000) (Oral)d 7 20/16 80 Peramivir Yamagata/16/88 6.45 17/13 76 Barroso et al. (2005) (Intranasal)e 6.45 17/16 94 6.45 18/15 83 a 20 mg twice daily, 100 mg twice daily, 200 mg twice daily, and 200 mg once daily b 100 mg once daily, 200 mg once daily, and 400 once daily c 50 mg once daily, 100 mg once daily, and 200 mg once daily d 75 mg once daily, and 75 mg twice daily e 200 mg once daily, 400 once daily, and 800 mg once daily 5

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