Monitoring Reference Streams For Climate Change Impacts

Aaron Moore Vermont Agricultural and Environmental Laboratory Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets

with the Vermont DEC Biomonitoring Program How climate change affects stream ecosystems

Watershed activities CLIMATE CHANGE

PRECIPITATION AIR TEMPERATURE Riparian Water habitat Chemistry

Instream HYDROLOGY WATER TEMPERATURE habitat

Algae/ Fish MACROINVERTEBRATES Diatoms

Riparian detritus How climate change affects stream ecosystems

CLIMATE CHANGE

PRECIPITATION AIR TEMPERATURE

HYDROLOGY WATER TEMPERATURE

MACROINVERTEBRATES

- How do changes in hydrology and temperature impact macroinvertebrate communities? - How will biological changes affect assessments of stream health, and how can we separate these effects from local/watershed stressors? How Vermont uses macroinvertebrates to assess stream health

Macroinvertebrate Site Summary Location: Ranch Brook Excellent Town: Stowe A(1) EPT Biotic EPT/EPT + Community Very Good/Excellent Date Density Richness PMA-O % Worms PPCS-F Assessment Richness Index Chiro Very Good 9-14-2000 1196 45.0 20.0 82.7 1.96 4.98 0.73 0.72 Very Good B(1) 9-4-2001 1058 39.0 24.0 81.8 2.59 0.50 0.71 0.56 Excellent 9-9-2002 1408 41.0 20.0 77.5 2.60 0.28 0.69 0.64 VG/Exc Good/Very Good 9-9-2003 1656 44.0 21.0 71.2 2.25 7.73 0.72 0.58 Very Good 9-7-2004 334 41.0 21.0 76.8 3.06 0.72 0.63 0.66 Excellent Good 9-14-2005 696 40.0 22.0 87.6 2.15 0.00 0.77 0.62 Excellent B(2) - Meets 9-11-2006 992 51.0 26.0 74.3 2.96 6.65 0.65 0.58 Very Good Fair/Good Aquatic Life 9-7-2007 862 47.5 23.5 74.9 3.07 1.53 0.61 0.69 VG/Exc Criteria 9-4-2008 349 40.5 21.5 71.5 1.81 1.31 0.80 0.51 Excellent Fair 9-1-2009 833 36.0 20.0 73.6 3.20 3.46 0.66 0.51 VG/Exc 9-7-2010 602 39.0 22.0 81.0 2.15 0.61 0.95 0.65 Excellent Poor/Fair Full Support ≥ 300 ≥ 27 ≥ 16 ≥ 45 ≤ 4.5 ≤ 12 ≥ 0.45 ≥ 0.4 Indeterminate ≥ 250 ≥ 26 ≥ 15 ≥ 40 ≤ 4.65 ≤ 14.5 ≥ 0.43 ≥ 0.35 Poor Non-Support < 250 < 26 < 15 < 40 > 4.65 > 14.5 < 0.43 < 0.35 How Vermont uses macroinvertebrates to assess stream health

Macroinvertebrate Site Summary Location: West Branch Little River Excellent Town: Stowe A(1) EPT Biotic EPT/EPT + Community Very Good/Excellent Date Density Richness PMA-O % Worms PPCS-F Assessment Richness Index Chiro Very Good 9-14-2000 605 22.0 12.0 55.4 3.14 0.00 0.70 0.39 Fair B(1) 9-4-2001 130 24.5 15.0 71.6 2.46 0.37 0.80 0.45 Fair 9-4-2002 494 28.0 15.0 71.1 2.97 0.65 0.89 0.47 Fair/Good Good/Very Good 9-9-2003 1433 29.5 9.5 37.4 3.75 58.93 0.43 0.24 Poor Good 9-7-2004 150 23.5 15.0 73.5 3.40 1.97 0.91 0.49 Fair B(2) - Meets 9-28-2005 179 33.5 14.5 72.7 2.17 22.53 0.79 0.41 Fair 10-10-2006 186 24.5 15.5 63.9 1.76 5.92 0.91 0.60 Fair Fair/Good Aquatic Life 9-7-2007 629 28.5 17.5 64.9 2.28 3.27 0.93 0.42 Good/VG Criteria 9-12-2008 214 26.0 15.5 67.3 2.88 2.50 0.91 0.41 Fair Fair 9-10-2009 478 27.0 15.5 71.1 2.45 1.85 0.86 0.44 Good 9-27-2010 88 22.5 14.0 64.9 2.63 7.30 0.92 0.49 Poor Poor/Fair Full Support ≥ 300 ≥ 27 ≥ 16 ≥ 45 ≤ 4.5 ≤ 12 ≥ 0.45 ≥ 0.4 Indeterminate ≥ 250 ≥ 26 ≥ 15 ≥ 40 ≤ 4.65 ≤ 14.5 ≥ 0.43 ≥ 0.35 Poor Non-Support < 250 < 26 < 15 < 40 > 4.65 > 14.5 < 0.43 < 0.35 How Vermont uses macroinvertebrates to assess stream health

Small High Gradient (SHG)

0 Medium High Gradient

(MHG)

ELEVATION DRAINAGE AREA DRAINAGE Warm Water Moderate 0 Gradient (WWMG)

Hybrid Low Gradient CANOPY OPEN

(HLG) GRADIENT DECREASED

Slow Low Gradient (SLG) Vermont’s long-term reference stream network

- 12 “sentinel” streams - All 5 stream types - 6 are part of NE Regional Monitoring Network (RMN)

Stream Drainage Elevation % Forest & Stream Type Area (km2) (m) Wetland Smith Brook SHG 5 589 100 Ranch Brook SHG 10 381 99 Bingo Brook SHG 24 343 99 North Branch MHG 29 293 98 Winhall River MHG 47 455 100 MHG 59 398 99 Green River MHG 66 192 91 MHG 510 219 94 Lewis Creek WWMG 208 34 71 WWMG 352 273 99 Alder Brook HLG 7 408 98 Bog Brook SLG 48 344 98 Vermont’s long-term reference stream network

- Primary indicators - Macroinvertebrates - Water temperature - Stream Flow - Supplemental monitoring - Water chemistry - Air temperature - Fish community - Instream habitat Vermont’s long-term reference stream network

- Primary indicators - Macroinvertebrates - Water temperature - Stream flow

- Supplemental monitoring - Water chemistry - Air temperature - Fish community - Instream habitat Vermont’s long-term reference stream network

Stream 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Smith Brook Ranch Brook Bingo Brook North Branch Winhall River Moose River Green River White River Lewis Creek Nulhegan River Alder Brook Bog Brook MACROINVERTEBRATES WATER TEMPERATURE Future analyses will require much longer periods of record, DISCHARGE but there are interesting preliminary results: - Stream Flow - Impacts from Tropical Storm Irene - Water Temperature - 2019 Seasonal study - Cotton Brook Landslide Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

Annual Total Precipitation (Burlington Airport)

CLIMATE CHANGE

PRECIPITATION

HYDROLOGY

MACROINVERTEBRATES

Analysis by Phillip Jones, (VTDEC) Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

# of Precipitation Events > 1 inch

CLIMATE CHANGE

PRECIPITATION

HYDROLOGY

MACROINVERTEBRATES

Analysis by Phillip Jones, (VTDEC) Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

24 Hour Rainfall Total August 28-29 (NOAA) Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

White River (USGS 01144000) North River (USGS 01169000) Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

Tropical Storm Irene: 8/28 - 8/29 Beginning of index period: 9/1

78% DENSITY decrease in 2011 compared to pre-flood averages Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

7% RICHNESS decrease compared to pre-flood averages Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

6% EPT RICHNESS increase compared to pre-flood averages

7% BIOTIC INDEX decrease compared to pre-flood averages Stream flow – Tropical Storm Irene

- 7/7 sites failed to meet the minimum threshold for streams at/near reference level in 2011 Stream flow – Instability at Ranch Brook

Ranch Brook Flow Reference streams may be resilient to a single extreme event; what happens when high flows occur with more frequency?

Series of high flow events from 2010-2013 - 3 of 4 highest peak annual flows in record during this period Stream flow – Instability at Ranch Brook

Baetis tricaudatus (mayfly): - Rapid colonizer - Generalist - Disturbance tolerant Water temperature – 2019 Seasonal Study

How will temperature affect macroinvertebrates? - Local extinction of cold-water taxa - Changes in distribution depending on thermal tolerance Water temperature – 2019 Seasonal Study How will temperature affect macroinvertebrates? - Phenological response; species have life stages triggered by temperature - Will increasing temperatures cause summer taxa to persist further into index period? (e.g. Glazaczow et al. 2016) - Could this affect assessment ratings?

Ranch Brook Water temperature – 2019 Seasonal Study Water temperature – 2019 Seasonal Study Water temperature – 2019 Seasonal Study

How will temperature affect macroinvertebrates? - Phenological response; species have life stages triggered by temperature - Will Summer taxa persist further into index period? - Will this affect assessments? Cotton Brook Landslide

Water Chemistry /Instream Habitat Cotton Brook Landslide

Water Chemistry /Instream Habitat Cotton Brook Landslide

RANCH BROOK UPPER COTTON

LOWER COTTON Cotton Brook Landslide Cotton Brook Landslide - HABITAT Cotton Brook Landslide – WATER QUALITY

Impacts of total suspended solids on Invertebrates: • Scour • Burial • Abrasion • Respiration efficiency • Feeding efficiency • Habitat degradation

Landslide Date Cotton Brook Landslide – WATER QUALITY

Landslide Date Cotton Brook Landslide – WATER QUALITY

Cotton Brook: 19 km2 Little River: 289 km2 Cotton Brook Landslide – WATER QUALITY Cotton Brook Landslide - BIOLOGY

Assessment Ratings Sept Oct Ranch Excellent Very Good Brook Upper Good Good Cotton Lower Poor Poor Cotton Putting it all together - Catastrophic events like Tropical Storm Irene and the Cotton Brook landslide show that communities can be rapidly decimated, - This can cause immediate declines in biological assessments at reference sites - Streams may be resilient to single extreme flow events, but more frequent events may destabilize communities - Summer temperatures favor the increased production of tolerant species. - If temp increases allow tolerant taxa to persist into the fall index period, biological assessments will be negatively affected - Climate change impacts could affect the State’s ability to assess stream health using current biocriteria thresholds

Acknowledgements Vermont DEC staff (Jim Deshler, Michelle Graziosi, Heather Pembrook, Steve Fiske, Jim Kellogg, Blaine Hastings, Phillip Jones, Marjorie Gale), Jen Stamp (Tetra Tech Inc)