eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Maria Information from NHC Advisory 13A, 8:00 AM AST Tue September 19, 2017 On the forecast track, the of Maria will move over the northeastern Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 160 mph Position Relative to 85 miles W of Guadeloupe Speed: (Category 5) Land: 170 miles SE of St. Croix Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 933 mb Coordinates: 16.2 N, 62.8 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 125 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 300 degrees at 9 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right) both show Maria now moving over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. ■ Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in the this morning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines this morning, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. ■ A dangerous accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the . The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: 6-9 ft on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. ■ Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: 10-15 inches on Central and southern Leeward Islands and also on U.S. and British Virgin Islands, 12-18 inches on Puerto Rico, 4-8 inches on Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, 2-4 inches on Windward Islands and Barbados, 4-8 inches on Eastern Dominican Republic. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Forecast Track for Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Maria

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for , Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Anguilla, Martinique. A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours - is in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, Isla Saona to Puerto Plata. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours - is in effect for West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border.

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Maria Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/19/17) 13 7 4 12 TS Lee TS Katia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/19/17) 11 4 1 TS Jose TS Irma 14.7 7.9 3.8 8 TS Harvey 1995-2011 season average TS Gert HU Maria HU Katia TS Franklin 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Emily Hu Jose 4 TS Don HU Irma Major HU Maria HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy Major HU Jose TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Maria is the thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and fourth major The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw eleven named occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that storms four hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 19. Maria became the season’s seventh named hurricane on September 17. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WiFive Day d Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a few The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the hundred miles south of Nantucket, , , and on Hurricane time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also Maria, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central . * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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