Opening Bell

September 13, 2021

Market Outlook Today’s Highlights

Indian markets are likely to witness a muted opening Events: CPI YoY tracking weak global cues as traders continued to express concerns about the economic impact of the delta variant.

Index Movement

Markets Yesterday 61000 18000 . Domestic markets were closed on Friday on account of 58000 17000 Ganesh Chaturthi. Domestic markets ended marginally 55000 16000

higher on Thursday on the back of gains in metals, FMCG, 52000 15000

partially offset by losses in select BFSI stocks 49000 14000

46000 13000 . US markets ended lower on concerns over the spread of

3-Sep 6-Sep

Covid-19 cases and its impact on the economy 9-Sep

10-Aug

13-Aug

16-Aug

19-Aug

22-Aug

25-Aug

28-Aug 31-Aug

Key Developments BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS) . Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 11.5% YoY in July Close Previous Chg (% ) MTD(% ) YTD(% ) P/E (1yrfwd) Sensex 58,305 58,250 0.1 1.3 22.1 25.2 2021 (on a lower base) as opposed to an increase of 13.6% in June 2021. Manufacturing sector grew 10.5% Nifty 17,369 17,354 0.1 1.4 24.2 23.8

YoY. and power output grew 19.5% and 11.1% Institutional Activity YoY respectively. Under use-based segments, capital goods increased 29.5% YoY. Consumer durables grew CY19 CY20 YTD CY21 Yesterday Last 5 Days 20.2% YoY while consumer non-durables de-grew 1.8% FII (| cr) 40,893 64,379 8,444 423 -420 YoY. IIP during April-July 2021 showed sharp growth of DII (| cr) 44,478 -28,544 23,242 704 1,462 34.1% YoY as the IIP was impacted by nationwide lockdown during the corresponding period a year ago World Indices – Monthly performance Nikkei BSE NSE Shanghai Nasdaq

. India's fuel demand increased 10.9% YoY to 16 MMT in 30,382 58,305 17,369 3,703 15,116 August 2021. Petrol and diesel demand grew 13% and 8.6% 6.9% 6.8% 5.3% 2.0% 15.6% YoY, respectively. On an MoM basis, petrol Kospi U.K. Germany Dow Jones France 3,126 7,029 15,610 34,608 6,664 demand was up 2.5% while diesel demand fell 8.7% -1.4% -2.3% -2.3% -2.6% -3.4%

Nifty Heat Map 20,457 Bharti 686 122 464 1,598 Nestle ONGC Hindalco Grasim Ind 3.1% Airtel 2.7% 2.7% 1.6% 1.3% Tata 299 1,447 Bajaj 16,751 1,199 213 Tata HCL Tech ITC Motors 1.3% 1.2% Finserv 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 2,818 3,791 115 750 1,433 Eicher TCS NTPC Adani Ports TechM 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Markets Today (Updated till yesterday) 174 2,811 491 6,802 Asian 3,346 Power Grid HUL BPCL Maruti 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Paints 0.3% Commodities Close Previous Chng (% ) MTD(% ) YTD(%) Gold (|/10 gm) 46,808 46,994 -0.4 -0.7 -6.7 689 4,071 432 1,670 113 JSW Steel Britannia SBI L&T IOC Silver (|/kg) 63,599 64,158 -0.9 1.1 -6.6 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Crude ($/barrel) 72.9 71.5 2.1 -0.1 40.8 1,818 2,830 662 4,912 Indusind 1,000 ($/tonne) 9,695 9,388 3.3 1.7 25.1 Kotak Bank HDFC Ltd Dr Reddy 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bank 0.0% Currency USD/INR 73.5 73.4 0.1 0.5 -1.6 2,797 720 1,692 Sun 776 Reliance 2,426 Hero Moto ICICI Bank EUR/USD 1.2 1.2 -0.1 0.0 -3.3 -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% Pharma -0.1% Ind. -0.2% USD/YEN 109.9 110.2 0.2 -0.6 -5.2 949 149 Shree 30,671 Bajaj 7,431 Tata 876 ADRs -0.3% -0.3% Cement -0.4% Finance -0.4% Consum -0.5% HDFC Bank 75.5 75.8 -0.5 -3.7 4.4 ICICI Bank 19.4 19.5 -0.9 -1.3 30.3 1,569 751 758 790 5,055 HDFC Bank M&M UPL Divis Lab 20.3 20.2 0.4 3.1 61.0 -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.6% Infosys 23.0 22.9 -1.0 -3.5 35.6 3,701 7,940 737 2,034 1,173 Ultratech HDFC Life Titan SBI Life Dr Reddys Labs 66.0 65.8 0.3 2.7 -7.5 -0.7% -0.7% -0.8% -1.1% -3.8% Wipro 9.5 9.4 0.4 1.3 67.4

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Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Key Economic Indicator Period Latest Prior Values 100000

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 4.00% 4.00%

61,582

63,689

59,691

57,625 56,272 RBI Repo Rate N/A 4.00% 4.00% 49,804 50000

RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 3.35% 3.35%

8,108

5,128

4,958

4,803 3,965 CPI YY Jul 5.59% 6.26% 3,814 0

Current Account Balance Q4 -8.1bln $ -2.2bln $ 2-Sep 3-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep Exports - USD Jul 35.4 bln$ 32.5 bln$ BSE Cash NSE Cash FX Reserves, USD Final Aug 633.6 bln$ 620.6 bln$

GDP Quarterly yy Q1 20.10% 1.60% NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) GDP Annual FY21 -7.30% 4.20% Imports - USD Jul 46.4 bln $ 41.8 bln $ 15000000

Industrial Output yy Jul 11.5% 13.6% Bell Opening

10000000 9,827,795

Manufacturing Output Jul 10.5% 13.0% 10,449,213 6,303,669

Trade Deficit Govt - USD Jul -10.9bln $ -9.4bln $ 5,464,790 3,952,884 5000000 3,502,350 WPI Food yy Jul 4.5% 6.7% WPI Fuel yy Jul 26.0% 32.8% 0 WPI Inflation yy Jul 11.2% 12.1% 2-Sep 3-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep WPI Manuf Inflation yy Jul 11.2% 10.9% NSE Derivative

Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Security name Action Ex Date Record Date Status Price (|) Power 14.8 Navneet Education Buyback Ongoing Oil & Gas 12.0 Balrampur Chini Buyback Ongoing Consumer Durables 10.4 Mahindra Lifespace Developers Bonus Issue 14-Sep-21 15-Sep-21 2:1 FMCG 9.3 CESC Ltd Stock Split 17-Sep-21 20-Sep-21 1:10 Capital Goods 9.2 IT 7.9 Dalmia Bharat Sugar Dividend 13-Sep-21 14-Sep-21 3.00 BSE Midcap 7.6 Ltd Dividend 13-Sep-21 65.00 Real Estate 4.0 Dividend 14-Sep-21 1.20 BSE Small Cap 3.9 Banks 2.0 Seamless Dividend 14-Sep-21 15-Sep-21 3.50 PSU 1.8

Eclerx Services Dividend 15-Sep-21 1.00 Healthcare 0.6 Research Retail Equity

Nirlon Ltd Dividend 15-Sep-21 8.00 Metals -0.6 – Sandhar Technologies Dividend 15-Sep-21 1.00 Auto -1.1 Zensar Technologies Dividend 15-Sep-21 16-Sep-21 2.40 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 (%)

ICICI Securities Key News for Today

Company/I News View Impact ndustry Indian According to media sources, the Delhi The new policy will mark the exit of the liquor Government has approved the new Excise government from the retail liquor business. sector Policy 2021-22, which is being implemented. Delhi government agencies currently run New retail licenses are scheduled to start from around 60% of the 850 retail liquor shops November 17, 2021 in the city. The policy transform the liquor trade in the capital and give higher  revenue to the government

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Indian According to media sources, Ford India will Ford Ecosport in the UV space was the top Passenger shut down its manufacturing operations in selling model from basket of Ford India Vehicle India on account of sub-optimal volumes and with domestic market share pegged at Industry consequent muted profitability. The company 3.3% in the UV space as of FY21. Given its has a combined capacity of ~4.4 lakh units low market share, things will not materially (across two plants in India) with FY21 change for the industry but marginal gain production at ~90,000 units and sales nearly for competition is on the cards with likely equally dividend between India and exports beneficiary being M&M and Tata Motors in our coverage universe

Coal India According to media sources, Coal India may Coal India has informally discussed the raise prices of FSA coal by ~10-11% to matter with board members and most of mitigate the impact of increased costs and an them have acknowledged the need to hike impending wage revision. However, a final prices of coal. The miner is awaiting the call is yet to be taken in this regard government’s approval following which it will take the final call. Going forward, this remains a key monitorable

Key developments (Continued…)

 According to Business Line, the credit ratio (upgrades to downgrades) rose to 2.3x in April-August 2021 from 0.56x in the corresponding previous period. The number of upgrades increased 2.4x in the same period while the downgrades dipped almost 40%, thus indicating an improvement in corporate health  According to The Economic Times, securitisation of loan assets by NBFCs rose around 2.3x in Q1FY22 YoY and was mainly driven by secured mortgage-backed securities. Combined securitisation volumes through both pass-through certificates and direct assignments rose 2.3x from | 7500 crore to | 17200 crore YoY  TCS has signed a 10 year contract with Transport for London (TFL) to digitally transform taxi and private hire vehicle licensing administration in London. The deal also has an opportunity for a five-year extension. TCS will design and launch new system which will enhance user experience by offering services like licensing payments and refunds to vehicle operators & owners through digital channels and also back-end activities such as bookings, personal detail processing and vehicle inspections, etc  Zensar Tech has announced that they have partnered with FRISS, the most widely adopted provider of AI - powered end-to-end fraud prevention and detection solutions for P&C insurers worldwide. This strategic partnership will enable Zensar’s clients to access the latest market-ready AI, a multitude of data sources and unparalleled customer service directly through FRISS  Firstsource Solutions has announced the launch of Firstsource Healthcare Cloud—a new, innovative platform which will support all US healthcare products with expanded access, flexibility and security capabilities. Firstsource Healthcare Cloud revolutionises how providers deliver financial services by radically simplifying the patient financial experience, which will result in improved access to care, better outcomes for patients and the ability to continuously improve healthcare operations to eliminate revenue leakage, streamline care delivery, and focus on activities that improve patient health  S&P Global has revised ’s outlook to “stable” from “negative,” on the back of the company's operating fundamentals and superior leverage management. The global ratings agency has affirmed its 'BBB -' long-term issuer credit rating on Airtel and the 'BBB-' issue rating on the telco’s senior unsecured notes  Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on JSW Steel to positive from stable. The ratings agency also affirmed the company’s Ba2 Corporate Family Rating and its Ba2 Senior Unsecured Debt Rating. Further, it has assigned Ba2 rating to the company’s proposed U.S. dollar senior unsecured notes.  Dr Reddy's has completed the transaction of sale of rights for ELYXYB (celecoxib oral solution) 25mg/mL for US and Canada to BioDelivery Sciences  Granules India has recalled over 1.14 crore Naproxen Sodium tablets (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug) due to CGMP deviations. The drug was manufactured at Granules India's Telangana based plant  Cadila has received USFDA tentative approval to market Brexpiprazole tablets (US RLD: Rexulti tablets). The drug is indicated for use as an adjunctive therapy to antidepressants for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) and schizophrenia. Brexpiprazole will be manufactured at Cadila’s formulation manufacturing facility in SEZ, Ahmedabad  Interglobe Aviation is aiming at running at full capacity domestically by December 2021. The current load factor for the airline is around 70% and yields are likely to rise in coming months as per the management. The company is also planning to raise funds as an insurance buffer against a possible third Covid wave

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 CCI has approved the acquisition of 26% in ONGC Tripura Power Company by Gail. Gail is acquiring a stake from IL&FS group companies  Jubilant Pharmova has recalled 14,544 bottles of Donepezil HCL Tablets (indicated to treat mild to moderate dementia in Alzheimer's disease) due to it being subpotent. The drug has been produced by Jubilant Generics in India  According to the Times of India, Advent International, an American private equity firm, is nearing a deal to acquire Eureka Forbes, India’s largest manufacturer of water purifiers and vacuum cleaners. Eureka Forbes is currently owned by the Shapoorji Pallonji group. The transaction is expected to set a value of ~| 5000 crore for Eureka Forbes according to people aware of the matter.  Relaince's Jio and UK's British (BP) has tied up with EV ride-hailing platform BluSmart to set up electric vehicle charging infrastructure (for PV and 2-W) in India. In the first phase, Jio-BP will set up EV charging stations in Delhi-NCR with minimum capacity of 30 vehicles at each station. Jio-BP aims to expand its petrol pump network to 5,500 in the next five years from the current network of just over 1,400 petrol pumps  The board of has approved raising of capital through Basel III-compliant Additional Tier-1 (AT-1) bonds and Tier II bonds up to an amount of | 6,000 crore, according to Business Standard  Loans to Srei group worth | 35000 crore may be classified into NPA category by banks in Q2FY22. As reported in business line, and have exposures of | 2,000 crore and | 1,200 crore, respectively, while Axis Bank has | 800 crore exposure  IOC has announced a collaboration with SABIC, a diversified chemicals company, for technical grade urea (TGU) to manufacture aqueous urea solution (AUS-32) used in diesel vehicular systems to reduce NO2 emission by over 70% to meet the BS-VI norms  According to Mint, India’s strategic petroleum reserves have begun supplying crude oil to HPCL and MRPL. ISPR will supply 4.3 MMT of oil to the companies in 2021  IGL is planning to add 100-150 CNG stations annually with 50 CNG stations in Delhi-NCR. Also, the company has allocated | 100 crore to set up battery swapping facility at 200 CNG stations  According to Business Standard, the Kerala government has initiated discussion with energy companies such as IOC, BPCL, Gail among others for producing green hydrogen from Cochin International Airport’s solar power facility  plans to offer home loans at 6.5% through festive season. The bank has announced its lowest loan offer, interest rate down by 15 bps to 6.5% per annum. This special rate will be available under a limited-period festive offer beginning September 10 to November 8, 2021 as reported in financial express.  Online delivery platform Zomato has decided to stop its grocery delivery service from September 2017 mainly on account of gap in order fulfillment leading to poor customer experience. However, the company will continue to have an indirect presence in this segment via its investments in the Grofers  government may consider to allow casinos to re-open with 50% capacity in order to revive the tourism sector.  Shalby has opened its first franchise Shalby Orthopedic Centre of Excellence (SOCE) facility in . The SOCE is in association with Madhuban Hospital and Dr. Hemant Khajja, offering state-of-the-art full service IPD and OPD orthopedic centre  Reliance Jio has delayed the launch of its affordable smartphone, JioPhone Next, whi ch was developed in partnership with Google, owing to the ongoing semiconductor shortage globally. The phone will now be available "more widely" around the Diwali festive season instead of September 10

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Nifty Daily Chart Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks during previous week recorded new highs as Nifty scaled to fresh all time high of 17436. The Nifty settled the week marginally higher at 17369. In the coming session, index is likely to open on a flat note amid weak Asian cues. We expect the index to trade in a range with positive bias while sustaining above 17300 levels. Hence use intraday dips towards 17290- 17315 to create long for target of 17398

We expect markets to turn stock specific, while Nifty to undergo a healthy consolidation in coming week. Hence it would be prudent to stick to buy on decline strategy to accumulate quality stocks as over past 15 months such strategy has worked well for investors. As we do not expect Nifty to breach 16900 in consolidation phase, dips towards psychological level of 17000 would offer incremental buying opportunity in coming week. Structurally, our broader positive stance is intact with Nifty gradually heading to 17600 in September 2021.

P ivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks Trend Close S1 S2 R1 R2 Nifty 50 Intraday Short Term SENSEX Neutral 58305.1 58149 57992 58399 58492 Trend Range Bound Up Nifty 50 Neutral 17369.3 17322 17274 17399 17428 Support 17300-17250 16900 AARTI INDUS LTD Positive 909.6 902 896 916 924 Resistance 17380-17430 17600 LTD Neutral 3346.4 3315 3283 3369 3391 20 day EMA - 16916 GODREJ PROPERTIE Neutral 1581.6 1570 1557 1591 1600 200 day EMA - 14965 SBI Neutral 432.3 430 428 434 436 GRANULES INDIA Negative 328.1 327 324 332 335 Advances/Declines INDIA Positive 1044.0 1030 1016 1061 1078 Advances Declines Unchanged Tata Motors Positive 299.0 295 289 304 309 BSE 1767 1428 155 JSW STEEL LTD Positive 689.0 685 680 693 696 NSE 1089 901 91 BHARAT HEAVY ELE Neutral 55.7 56 55 57 57

TCS Neutral 3791.4 3767 3744 3811 3832 Daily Technical Calls HERO MOTOCORP LT Negative 2796.7 2772 2746 2815 2832 D aily Technical Calls CONTAINER CORP Positive 743.0 729 714 756 768 1. Buy Bharti Airtel in the range of 685.00-687.00 MAHINDRA & MAHIN Negative 750.8 748 743 756 761 2. Buy MCX in the range of 1660.00-1664.00 Neutral 2425.6 2416 2405 2438 2449 All recommendations of August Future

AUROBINDO PHARMA Negative 741.8 735 728 747 752 COAL INDIA LTD Positive 148.7 147 146 150 152 See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call – Put Strike (Number of shares in lakh) – September, 2021 Intraday Derivative Strategy i) 16900 34 8 Buy EICMOT September Fut at | 2803.00-2807.00 17000 85 23 CMP: 2802.45 17100 23 10 Target 1: 2830.7 Target 2: 2869.3 17200 37 16 Stop Loss: 2779.3 17300 34 29 17400 22 30 17500 15 36 ii) 17600 3 12 Sell GLEPHA September Fut at | 520.00-522.00 17700 5 12 CMP: 521.00 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 Target 1: 513.2 Target 2: 501.4 Put Call Put Call Stop Loss: 528.8

See Derivatives view for more details

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Results/Events Calendar

30 August 31 August 01 September 02 September 03 September 04 September Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday EU Consumer Confidence EU CPI YoY EU Manufacturing PMI US Non Trade Balance IN Nikkei Services PMI 0 JP Unemployment Rate IN Infrastructure Output EU Unemployment Rate EU PPI YoY EU Services PMI 0 JP Industrial Production IN GDP Quarterly US Manufacturing PMI JP Services PMI EU Retail Services 0 CH Manufacturing PMI IN Federal Fiscal Deficit 0 0 US Unemployment Rate 0 CH Non-Manufacturing PMI JP Manufacturing PMI 0 0 US Services PMI 0

06 September 07 September 08 September 09 September 10 September 11 September Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday GBP Construction PMI EU Employment Change CH PPI YoY EU Deposit Facility Rate GDP Trade Balance,US PPI 0 0 EU GDP YoY 0 0 GDP Industrial Production 0 0 CH Exports YoY, CH Imports YoY 0 0 GBP Construction Output 0 0 CH FX Reserves, CH Trade Balance 0 0 IN Industrial Prod YoY 0 0 JP GDP YoY 0 0 IN Manufacturing Output 0

13 September 14 September 15 September 16 September 17 September 18 September Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday IN CPI (YoY) JP Capacity Utilization, JP Indu' Prod.IN Exports, IN Imports EU Trade Balance EU CPI YoY 0 US Federal Budget Balance IN WPI Manuf' Inflation (YoY) EU Industrial Production MoM US Initial Jobless Claims UK Retail Sales MoM 0 0 IN WPI Inflation (YoY) IN Trade Balance US Retail Sales 0 0 0 IN WPI Fuel (YoY) US Crude Oil Inventories US Crude Oil Inventories 0 0 0 IN WPI Food (YoY), CH FDI JP Imports & Exports, JP Trade Bal. JP Imports & Exports, JP Trade Bal. 0 0

20 September 21 September 22 September 23 September 24 September 25 September Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 0 0 0 EU Manufacturing,Services PMI 0 0 0 0 0 US Manufacturing,Services PMI 0 0 0 0 0 JP National Core CPI (YoY) 0 0 JP Public Holiday 0 0 JP Manufacturing PMI 0 0 CH Public Holiday CH Public Holiday 0 JP Public Holiday US New Home Sales 0

27 September 28 September 29 September 30 September 01 October 02 October Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 0 US CB Consumer Confidence EU Consumer Confidence JP Unemployment Rate IN Nikkei Markit Manuf. PMI 0 0 US Goods Trade Balance JP Retail Sales EU Unemployment Rate EU CPI YoY 0 0 0 CH Manufacturing PMI IN Foreign Fiscal Deficit EU Manufacturing PMI 0 0 0 CH Non Manufacturing PMI IN Infra'Output, UK GDP YoY US Personal Spending 0 0 0 JP Industrial Production IN Foreign Debt, US GDP QoQ US Manfacturing PMI 0

Major Economic Events this Week Bulk Deals

Date Event Country Period Actual Expected Price Company Client Name Type No. of shares (|) Date Event Country Period Expected Previous NSE 13-Sep CPI YoY IN Aug 5.60% 5.59% Ahlada Engineers Ltd. Pivotal Business Managers LLP Sell 66,784 149.3 13-Sep Federal Budget Balance US Aug -173.0B -302.0B BSE 14-Sep WPI Food IN Aug - 3.09% SBI Life Insurance Co. BNP Paribas Arbitrage Buy 96,35,692 1171.0 14-Sep WPI Fuel IN Aug - 26.02% 14-Sep WPI Inflation IN Aug 10.75% 11.16% 14-Sep WPI Manuf' Inflation IN Aug - 11.20% 14-Sep FDI CH Aug - 25.50% 14-Sep Retail Sales CH Aug 7.10% 8.50%

14-Sep Industrial Production CH Aug 5.80% 6.40% 15-Sep Industrial Production EU Jul 0.60% -0.30% 15-Sep Exports IN Jul - 33.14B 15-Sep Imports IN Jul - 47.01B 15-Sep Trade Balance IN Jul -13.89B -13.87B Recent Releases 15-Sep Crude Oil Inventories US Jul - -1.529M Date Report 15-Sep Exports JP Aug 34.00% 37.00% Sep 05,2021 Stock Tales-Adani Ports 15-Sep Imports JP Aug 40.00% 28.50% 15-Sep Trade Balance JP Aug -47.7B -439.4B Sep 03,2021 Event Update- HDFC Life Insurance 16-Sep Trade Balance EU Jul - 18.1B Sep 03,2021 Company Update- 16-Sep Initial Jobless Claims US Aug 318K 310K 16-Sep Retail Sales US Aug -1.00% -1.10% Sep 03,2021 Covid Recovery Pulse 17-Sep CPI YoY EU Aug 3.00% 2.20% Sep 07,2021 Special Report- Index Outlook

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V

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) – 400 093 [email protected]

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