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UNO Template 06 February 2014 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Technology (Electric Components (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Mitsumi Electric (6767 / 6767 JP) Rating NEUTRAL [V] Price (06 Feb 14, ¥) 712 RESULTS Target price (¥) 820¹ Chg to TP (%) 15.2 Market cap. (¥ bn) 62.27 (US$ 0.61) Guidance cut as expected; some work needed Enterprise value (¥ bn) 25.79 Number of shares (mn) 87.45 to meet 4Q target and avoid full-year losses Free float (%) 70.0 52-week price range 958 - 503 ■ Near-term share price impact: Neutral to positive *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ■ Outlook and investment stance: Neutral ¹Target price is for 12 months. [V] = Stock considered volatile (see Disclosure Appendix). Mitsumi Electric reported 3Q results after the close on 6 February, also Research Analysts announcing a downward revision to full-year guidance. The latter was broadly in Akinori Kanemoto line with expectations. It is encouraging at first glance that Mitsumi seemingly 81 3 4550 7363 has avoided a full-year operating loss, but we think some work must be done if [email protected] the company is to meet its 4Q targets and avoid a fourth straight year of losses. Yohei Ohya 81 3 4550 7366 Mitsumi reported 3Q OP of ¥1.6bn on ¥45.2bn in sales, with both figures pretty [email protected] much in line with our forecasts as of 20 December. The company lowered its full-year sales projection from ¥164bn to ¥160bn and cut its OP estimate from ¥1.5bn to ¥0.8bn, but left its RP and NP guidance unchanged to reflect forex gains at the nonoperating level. In the main, we think the downward revisions reflect weaker-than-expected performances by smartphone- and game-related products. To achieve its 4Q targets of ¥38.7bn in sales and ¥0.9bn in OP, we think Mitsumi needs to slash fixed costs, partly through better control of labor costs in China (by our calculations, it needs to lower the breakeven point for monthly sales by around ¥1.5bn). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS ® BEYOND INFORMATION Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 06 February 2014 Figure 1: Earnings summary Mitsumi Electric Sales Operating profits Recurring profits Net profits EPS BPS Capex Dep R&D 6767 ¥ mn YoY ¥ mn YoY Margin ¥ mn YoY ¥ mn YoY ¥ ¥ ¥ mn ¥ mn ¥ mn 2010/3 207,536 -16.2% 9,418 -54.5% 4.5% 8,298 -53.0% 5,903 -47.1% 67.5 1,699.4 8,106 9,963 14,375 2011/3 187,418 -9.7% -5,020 - -2.7% -6,387 - -3,541 - -40.5 1,597.0 12,819 11,426 13,392 2012/3 167,207 -10.8% -8,357 - -5.0% -8,234 - -28,335 - -324.0 1,247.4 7,954 10,299 12,917 2013/3 152,098 -9.0% -4,382 - -2.9% -3,274 - -11,544 - -132.0 1,160.9 8,610 6,852 11,022 2014/3 E 159,969 5.2% 919 - 0.6% 1,686 - 549 - 6.3 1,167.1 10,000 7,359 12,000 2014/3 CoE(New) 160,000 5.2% 800 - 0.5% 2,000 - 1,500 - 17.2 - 8,500 7,200 12,000 2014/3 CoE(Old) 164,000 7.8% 1,500 - 0.9% 2,000 - 1,500 - 17.2 - 8,500 7,200 12,000 2014/3 IBES 161,702 6.3% 743 - 0.5% 1,605 - 908 - 10.4 - - - - 2015/3 E 176,522 10.3% 8,400 814.0% 4.8% 8,080 379.2% 5,824 960.8% 66.6 1,233.7 8,000 8,000 12,000 2015/3 IBES 170,146 5.2% 4,580 516.4% 2.7% 4,300 167.9% 2,704 197.8% 30.9 - - - - 2016/3 E 192,222 8.9% 13,140 56.4% 6.8% 12,820 58.7% 8,414 44.5% 96.2 1,218.7 8,000 8,000 12,000 2013/3 1Q 28,120 -22.1% -3,331 - -11.8% -3,893 - -3,926 - - - - - - 2Q 40,167 -10.8% -1,414 - -3.5% -1,540 - -7,905 - - - - - - 3Q 51,506 2.0% 2,869 - 5.6% 3,942 - 2,741 - - - - - - 4Q 32,305 -9.2% -2,506 - -7.8% -1,783 - -2,454 - - - - - - 2014/3 1QA 29,209 3.9% -2,701 - -9.2% -1,694 - -1,675 - - - - - - 2QA 46,886 16.7% 1,019 - 2.2% 997 - 425 - - - - - - 3QA 45,210 -12.2% 1,612 -43.8% 3.6% 2,955 -25.0% 2,481 -9.5% - - - - - Source: Company data, IBES, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 2: Sales and profit forecast by segment 2012/3 2013/3 2014/3 2014/3 2014/3 2013/3 2014/3E mn, ¥, % 1H 2H 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QA 2QA 3Q 4Q CoE CoE CoE Actual CoE Old New Sales 167,207 152,098 164,000 160,000 76,095 83,905 28,120 40,167 51,506 32,305 29,209 46,886 45,210 38,695 yoy % chg. -11% -9% 8% 5% 11% 0% -22% -11% 2% -9% 4% 17% -12% 20% seq % chg. - - - -9% 10% -21% 43% 28% -37% -10% 61% -4% -14% Operating profits (8,357) (4,382) 1,500 800 (1,682) 2,482 (3,331) (1,414) 2,869 (2,506) (2,701) 1,019 1,612 870 yoy % chg. - - - - 584% - - - - - - - - as a % of sales -5.0% -2.9% 0.9% 0.5% -2.2% 3.0% -11.8% -3.5% 5.6% -7.8% -9.2% 2.2% 3.6% 2.2% Recuring profits (8,234) (3,274) 2,000 2,000 (697) 2,697 (3,893) (1,540) 3,942 (1,783) (1,694) 997 2,955 (258) yoy % chg. - - - - - 25% - - - - - - -25% - Net profits (28,335) (11,544) 1,500 1,500 (1,250) 2,750 (3,926) (7,905) 2,741 (2,454) (1,675) 425 2,481 269 yoy % chg. - - - - - 858% - - - - - - -9% - R&D 12,917 11,022 12,000 12,000 - - 2,698 2,712 2,806 2,806 2,646 2,482 2,884 3,988 Capex 7,954 8,610 8,500 8,500 - - 2,632 2,603 1,315 2,060 2,548 3,225 2,641 86 Depreciation 10,299 6,852 7,200 7,200 - - 1,258 1,596 2,395 1,603 1,359 1,741 1,702 2,398 Consolidated sales by segment Information/communication device 2,614 2,015 - - - - 528 511 434 542 - - - - yoy % chg. -46% -23% - - - - -25% -36% -35% 25% - - - - seq % chg. - - - - - - 21% -3% -15% 25% - - - - Semiconductor 31,599 25,379 - - 12,424 - 7,231 7,331 5,629 5,188 5,929 6,495 5,499 - yoy % chg. -10% -20% - - -15% - -1% -13% -33% -30% -18% -11% -2% - seq % chg. - - - - 15% - -2% 1% -23% -8% 14% 10% -15% - Optical device 11,081 13,045 - - 6,712 - 2,523 4,926 4,029 1,567 2,550 4,162 2,915 - yoy % chg. -19% 18% - - -10% - 41% 32% 20% -28% 1% -16% -28% - seq % chg. - - - - 20% - 16% 95% -18% -61% 63% 63% -30% - Mechanical components 80,256 72,185 - - 34,203 - 9,808 16,039 30,388 15,950 11,618 22,585 26,399 - yoy % chg. -4% -10% - - 32% - -36% -17% 4% -3% 18% 41% -13% - seq % chg. - - - - -26% - -41% 64% 89% -48% -27% 94% 17% - High-freqency device 23,942 16,646 - - 10,401 - 3,882 4,297 3,901 4,566 4,495 5,906 5,787 - yoy % chg. -23% -30% - - 27% - -47% -41% -18% 0% 16% 37% 48% - seq % chg. - - - - 23% - -15% 11% -9% 17% -2% 31% -2% - Power supply device 17,713 22,826 - - 12,352 - 4,145 7,063 7,125 4,493 4,616 7,736 4,611 - yoy % chg. -9% 29% - - 10% - 36% 30% 46% 4% 11% 10% -35% - seq % chg. - - - - 6% - -4% 70% 1% -37% 3% 68% -40% - Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Mitsumi Electric (6767 / 6767 JP) 2 06 February 2014 Figure 3: Results impressions Ticker Company Announcement Positive Neutral Negative Comment 6594 Nidec 1/22 forecast sustained share price rise 6971 Kyocera 1/29 Downward revision is worse than expected 6967 Shinko Electric Industries 1/30 Narrowly avoids loss; Earnings bottoming, but recovery momentum weak 6770 Alps electric 1/31 Major surpluses at components and Alpine 6981 Murata mfg 1/31 Earnings still strong, FY3/14 OP of ¥130bn in sight 6806 Hirose electric 1/31 Solid earnings, full-year guidance raised 6762 TDK 1/31 upward revision a bit disappointing but does not alter FY3/14 growth scenario 5334 NGK spark plug 1/31 Automotive components offset higher losses at substrate segment 4062 Ibiden 2/4 FC-PKG, FC-CSP earnings improve more than expected; guidance still conservative despite hike 6767 Mitsumi electric 2/6 Guidance cut as expected; some work needed to meet 4Q target and avoid full-year losses 6976 Taiyo Yuden 2/13 6807 Japan Aviation Electronics Industry 1/22 Record earnings within reach, but risk of adjustments in Jan–Mar 6727 Wacom 1/31 Disappointing, but share price will depend on Galaxy Note 3 Neo 7915 Nissha printing 2/7 6640 Dai-ichi Seiko 2/7 Source: Credit Suisse Mitsumi Electric (6767 / 6767 JP) 3 06 February 2014 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 06-Feb-2014) Alps Electric (6770.T, ¥1,331) Hirose Electric (6806.T, ¥14,080) IBIDEN (4062.T, ¥1,888) Japan Aviation Electronics Industry (6807.T, ¥1,603) Kyocera (6971.T, ¥4,341) Mitsumi Electric (6767.T, ¥712, NEUTRAL[V], TP ¥820) Murata Manufacturing (6981.T, ¥8,828) NGK Spark Plug (5334.T, ¥2,208) Nidec (6594.T, ¥11,280) Shinko Electric Industries (6967.T, ¥743) TDK (6762.T, ¥4,160) Wacom (6727.T, ¥585) Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures Akinori Kanemoto and Yohei Ohya, each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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