Addressing the High Proportion of Overage Students in Nepal
Global Education Leadership Conference 2015
Selene Sunmin Lee
Harvard Kennedy School (MPP ’10)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgement …………………………………………………………………………... 1
I. Context ……………………………………………………………………………………. 2 A. National context ……………………………………………………………………….. 2 B. Educational context …………...………………………………………………………. 3
II. Education problem ………...……………………………………………………………... 5 A. High proportion of overage students in schools ..…………………………………..…. 5 B. Demographic profile of overage students ..……………………………………………. 7 C. Causes and consequences of the problem …..…………………………………………. 8
III. Policy options to address late entry into primary school ………………………...……… 9 A. Feeder schools ………………………………………………………………………… 11 B. Multilingual education ………………………………………………………………… 13 C. Conditional cash transfers to the poorest quintile …………………………………….. 15 D. Early Childhood Development programs for all children ……………………………. 18
IV. Evaluation of policy options ……………………………………………………………. 21 A. Effectiveness ………………………………………………………………………….. 21 B. Cost ……………………………………………………………………………………. 22 C. Targeting ………………………………………………………………………………. 23 D. Political feasibility ……………………………………………………………………. 23
V. Policy recommendation – ECD programs for all children ……………..………………… 24 A. Trade-offs ……………………………………………………………………………... 24 B. Current ECD policy …………………………………………………………………… 25 C. Recommendations to improve current ECD program ………………………………… 26 1. Support children’s holistic development …………………………………………... 26 2. Engage parents …………………………………………………………………….. 28 3. Attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age …………………………. 29 4. Promote transition to primary school ……………………………………………… 30
VI. Summary and conclusion ……………………………………………………………... 31
Appendix 1: Figures ………………………………………………………………………… 33
Appendix 2: Evaluation of policy options ………………………………………………… 54
Appendix 3: Variables used in bivariate and multivariate analyses ………………………… 55
Bibliography ………………………………………………………………………………… 57
Acknowledgement
I would like to thank Professor Fernando Reimers and Nell O’Donnell of Harvard Graduate School of Education for their guidance on writing this paper, as well as their comments on previous drafts. I am also grateful to Shiva Lal Bhusal, ECD Specialist of UNICEF Nepal Office, for answering many questions on Nepal’s ECD policies and directing me to important sources of information. In addition, I thank Dipu Shakya, Education consultant of UNICEF Nepal Office, for his comments on a previous draft. Furthermore, I would like thank Sangbaek Park, my husband, for reading and commenting extensively on numerous versions of this paper.
Lastly, I acknowledge that the Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics provided raw data from the Nepal Living Standard Survey (NLSS) III for this paper.
1
Abstract: In Nepal, 68.1% of students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or more. This problem is first caused by the high proportion of late entry into primary school, and it is exacerbated by high repetition rates. The high proportion of overage students in school is a serious problem, because it can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom, and national level. This paper presents four policy options to address the initial cause of the problem, late entry into primary schools: building feeder schools, providing multilingual education, providing conditional cash transfers to poor children, and expanding ECD programs to all children. Based on the criteria of effectiveness, cost, targeting, and political feasibility, expanding ECD programs to all children was found to be the best policy option for increasing on-time entry into primary schools. The current ECD program in Nepal can better support this goal by focusing on the holistic development of a child, engaging parents, attracting children to
ECD programs at the appropriate age, and promoting children’s transition into primary school.
I. Context
A. National context
Nepal is a landlocked country in South Asia, located between India and China.
According to the Nepal Census 2011, the population of Nepal is 26.5 million, which is further classified into 125 caste/ethnic groups, 1 123 mother tongue languages,2 and 10 religious groups.3 The surface area of Nepal is 56,826 square miles (Central Intelligence Agency [CIA]), which is divided into 3 ecological belts4 and 5 development regions.5 These demographic and
1 The largest caste/ethnic groups are Chhetri (16.6%), Brahman-Hill (12.2%), Magar (7.1%), Tharu (6.6%), Tamang (5.8%), and Newar (5.0%). Source: Nepal Census 2011 2 The most popular languages spoken as the mother tongue are Nepali (44.6%), Maithili (11.7%), Bhojpuri (6.0%), Tharu (5.8%), and Tamang (5.1%). Source: Nepal Census 2011 3 The largest religions are Hinduism (81.3%), Buddhism (9.0%), and Islam (4.4%). Source: Nepal Census 2011 4 From north to south : Mountains, Hills, Plains
2 geographic divisions of the population are correlated with school enrollment patterns, which will be examined later in this paper.
Economically, Nepal is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.
According to the CIA World Factbook, Nepal’s GDP (PPP) is $42.06 billion, ranked at 104th place (out of 229 countries); while the GDP per capita (PPP) is $1,500, ranked at 205th place (out of 228 countries). The unemployment rate is 46%, while 75% of the labor force work in the agricultural sector. The literacy rate6 is 57.4%, 71.1% among males and 46.7% among females.
According to UNDP’s Human Development Report (2014), 24.8% of Nepal’s population live below the income poverty line of $1.25 (PPP) per day, and the mean years of schooling7 is only
3.2 years. Also, Nepal’s Human Development Index is 0.540, ranked at 145th place (out of 187 countries), and the country is classified as having “Low Human Development”.
B. Educational context
Formal education became available to the public when democracy was established in
Nepal in 1951 (Parajuli & Das, 2013). Later, basic education was recognized as a fundamental right of citizens in the Interim Constitution of Nepal (2007), which states that “each community shall have the right to get basic education in their mother tongue as provided for in the law
(Articles 17.1).”
Until 2009, the schooling system was divided into primary school (grades 1-5), lower secondary school (grades 6-8), secondary school (grades 9-10), and higher secondary school
(grades 11-12). In 2009, the School Sector Reform Plan restructured the system into basic
5 From west to east: Far West, Mid West, West, Central, East 6 CIA World Factbook: Proportion of the population aged 15 and above that can read and write in any language 7 Human Development Report 2014: Average number of years of education received by people ages 25 and older, converted from education attainment levels using official durations of each level
3 education (grades 1-8) and secondary education (grades 9-12), and made basic education free
(MoE, 2009). 8
In terms of school enrollment, Nepal has made remarkable progress since 1990, the year the international community adopted the World Declaration on Education for All (EFA). In 1990, the Net Enrollment Rate (NER) in primary schools (grades 1-5) was 64.0%, which increased to
84.2% in 2005, then to 95.3% in 2013, as shown in
Nations Country Team of Nepal, 2013). However, in contrast to the high NER in primary schools, the NER in secondary schools remains low. According to the official statistics released by the Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE) in 2013, the NER is 95.3% in primary schools (grades
1-5), 72.2% in lower secondary schools (grades 6-8), 54.3% in secondary schools (grades 9-10), and 10.4% in higher secondary schools (grades 11-12), as presented in
World Bank.9 It is also interesting to note the large discrepancies between the NER and GER in both of these graphs, indicating a high proportion of overage and underage students in school, an issue which will be examined in detail in this paper.
The promotion, repetition, and dropout rates in grades 1-8, according to official statistics, is presented in
8 The School Sector Reform Plan also includes provisions to make basic education compulsory, but this is not yet enforced. 9 NLSS I was conducted in 1995-1996, NLSS II was conducted in 2003-2004, and NLSS III was conducted in 2010-2011.
4 of students enrolled in school for 2 consecutive years (which excludes drop-outs), calculated from official statistics, while
III data.10
II. Education problem
A. High proportion of overage students in schools
As mentioned above, the NER in primary school is very high (95.3%) but drops dramatically in secondary school (10.4% in grades 11-12). This gives the illusion that most children in Nepal enroll in primary school, but increasingly drop out when they reach secondary school. However, a closer look at the data reveals that this is not true.
10 The survey only asked students currently enrolled in school what grade they were enrolled in during the previous year, so the dropout rates could not be calculated.
5 the exact grade that children are enrolled in. The color blue signifies the child is enrolled in an age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below the age-appropriate grade),11 green signifies the child is underage for the grade, red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or more), and grey signifies the child is out-of-school. Among children aged 5-16, only 30.6% are enrolled in their age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below), while 1.6% are underage for their grade, 56.1% are overage for their grade (by 2 years or more), and 11.7% are out-of-school, as represented in
Another way to look at this problem is to analyze the age-breakdown of the children enrolled in each grade, as shown in 6-a>, but it also includes students younger than 5 and older than 16, but excludes out-of-school children. 68.1% are overage for their grade (by 2 years or more). In other words, more than two-thirds of students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or more. These graphs clearly show that a major education problem in Nepal is the large proportion of overage students in both primary and secondary schools, rather than a high drop- out rate among adolescents. This problem is not obvious when only looking at the NER which simply indicates the “total number of students in the theoretical age group for a given level of education enrolled in that level, expressed as a percentage of the total population in that age 11 Note that 2 grades are considered “appropriate” for each age, because children will get older by one year during the school year, and we do not know at which point in the school year the child was surveyed. For example, a child aged 5 who is “appropriately” enrolled in grade 1 will turn 6 during the school year. Therefore, in this paper, children aged 5 and 6 who are enrolled in grade 1 are both considered to be in an age-appropriate grade. Likewise, among children aged 6, those who are enrolled in grade 1 (from the previous example) and grade 2 (the official age-appropriate grade) are both considered to be in an age-appropriate grade. This will inevitably over-estimate the proportion of children who are age-appropriate for their grade, and under-estimate the proportion of children who are overage for their grade. Nevertheless, it further supports the claim that the proportion of overage students in Nepal is high. 6 group” (UNESCO Institute for Statistics [UIS]). The proportion of overage students in Nepal is high even in regional standards. 8> reveals that Nepal has the highest proportion of overage students in primary schools in South Asia (among the countries for which data is available in the UIS database). B. Demographic profile of overage students Another problem is that there are statistically significant correlations between the profile of a child aged 5-16 (the appropriate age range for enrolling in primary and secondary schools) and the chances of the child being enrolled in an age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below).12 Maithili language, middle caste, Mid-Western region, Far-Western region, other languages, rural areas, and age. Only being female has a positive correlation. For reference, the multivariate analysis of the demographic profile of a child aged 5-16 and the chances of the child being enrolled in school (vs. being out-of-school) is presented in 12 Out-of-school children and children who are underage for their grade were excluded from this analysis, because the purpose of the analysis is to see the correlations between the variables and a child’s chance of being overage in their grade, once the child is in school. 13 Details on the variables included in the multivariate analysis can be found in 7 school, among children who are enrolled in school, girls have a higher chance than boys of being enrolled in an age-appropriate grade, controlling for the other variables. C. Causes and consequences of the problem In Nepal, the problem of overage students is first caused by the high proportion of late entry into primary school and it is exacerbated by high repetition rates. The high proportion of late entrants in primary school can be seen in (in grade 7). Compared to other countries in the region, Nepal has the highest repetition rate in primary school (among the countries for which data is available in the UIS database), as represented in Overage students in school can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom, and national level. First, at the individual level, overage students are likely to have less years of schooling, because they are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of school (UIS & UNICEF, 2014). This may be due to the fact that older children have greater pressure to earn an income for 15 Although the appropriate age to enroll in primary school in Nepal is 5, in this paper, the cohort of 6 year-olds will be used to analyze late entry into primary school, due to the methodological problem mentioned previously. In other words, some children aged 4 who are “appropriately” not enrolled in primary school will turn 5 during the school year, and we do not know at which point in the school year the child was surveyed. Thus, not all 5 year- olds who are not enrolled in primary school should be considered “inappropriately” out-of-primary-school. On the other hand, all 6 year-olds should be enrolled in primary school, regardless of when the survey was conducted. This is why this paper uses the cohort of 6 year-olds to analyze late entry into primary school. 16 This is assuming that the students in grade 1 will follow the same trajectory as the higher-grade cohorts in 8 the family instead of going to school (Education Policy and Data Center, 2009). Consequently, many of the overage students in Nepal may not be able to develop their full potential through education, which not only decreases their opportunities to find good jobs later, but also deprives Nepal of the educated workforce it needs to achieve economic development and compete in the global economy (UNESCO, 2012). Second, at the classroom level, having a wide range of ages in a classroom can decrease the quality of instruction, because it presents challenges for teachers to develop a pedagogy that is appropriate for the diverse range of cognitive and physical development of the students (Nonoyama-Tarumi, Loaiza, & Engle, 2010). Third, at the national level, large proportions of overage students in school can decrease the internal efficiency of the education system, because overage students are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of school, as mentioned above. Low efficiency in the education system is financially costly, because it increases the average cost of producing each graduate. In addition, the fact that there are correlations between children’s profiles and their chances of attending an age-appropriate grade presents challenges to achieving educational equity in Nepal, an important principle of the EFA goals. Also, these inequalities pose barriers to strengthening social cohesion in Nepal as it recovers from a civil war (1996-2006) which had been caused by socio-economic inequalities (Murshed & Gates, 2005). III. Policy options to address late entry into primary school This section presents policy options to address the initial cause of the high proportion of overage students in schools – late entry into primary school. Addressing late entry into primary school will not only directly contribute to decreasing the number of overage students in school, it may also indirectly contribute to solving the problem by addressing the other cause, repetition, 9 since students who start school at the appropriate age (in other words, they are not overage) are less likely to repeat a grade. Late entry into primary school is a widespread phenomenon in developing countries, according to a study by Nonoyama-Tarumi et al. (2010) which examined data from household surveys in 38 developing countries. Among the countries they analyzed, the median percentage of overage students among new entrants in grade 1 (those who were 2 years and above the official entry age) was 28.3%. If Nepal were to be included in this list, it would have the 8th highest proportion of overage students among new entrants in grade 1, with 48.5% of new entrants in grade 1 being overage (by 2 years or more17). For reference, the results of a multivariate analysis on the correlations between 9 variables (all the variables mentioned previously, except age) and the chances of a 6 year-old child in Nepal being enrolled in primary school are presented in Bhojpuri language, being in the lowest consumption quintile, and being in the middle consumption quintile. Again, being female has a positive correlation. In Nepal, there were already several national efforts to increase children’s enrollment in primary school. For example, in 2004, UNICEF and its partners launched the “Welcome to School Campaign” to increase primary school enrollment in 13 districts of Nepal, especially among children from disadvantaged groups (Lawoti, 2006). The following year, the government expanded this campaign to all 75 districts of Nepal, resulting in a 21% increase in grade 1 enrollment that year (Jayshi, 2010). Since then, the “Welcome to School Campaign” has been re- launched at the beginning of every school year (in April). In addition, as mentioned previously, 17 Calculated using NLSS III data. 10 the Ministry of Education established the School Sector Reform Plan in 2009, making basic education (grades 1-8) free, in an effort to achieve universal enrollment in basic education. Nevertheless, nearly half of children aged 6 are still not enrolled in primary school, as shown in A. Feeder schools 1. Literature review Distance to school is one of the supply-side barriers to age-appropriate entry into primary school identified by Nonoyama-Tarumi et al. (2010). When children live far away from a primary school, parents may perceive that they are too young to travel alone to school, even when they reach the legal age of enrollment. This is supported by a study by UIS and UNICEF (2014) on out-of-school children in South Asia, which found that distance to school is a cause of late entry and early drop-out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.18 The barriers created by long distances to schools in these countries are worsened by difficult terrain, cost of transportation, lack of transportation options, bad weather during certain times of the year, and security risks of travelling alone, especially for girls. The study also found that children from marginalized communities are especially affected by this barrier, since they tend to live in rural and remote areas that are underserved by schools. In Pakistan, where late entry into primary school is high, even in regional standards, government has been establishing community-based feeder schools in rural and remote areas that lack access to government schools, as a part of their effort to achieve universal primary 18 Nepal was not included in this report. 11 education (Pakistan National Commission for Human Development). These feeder schools provide children with primary education up to grade 3 until they are old enough to travel to schools that are further away. Since the program began in 2002, 21,000 feeder schools have been established, resulting in increased primary school enrollment and decreased dropout rates in areas served by the feeder schools. This example suggests that one way to address late entry into primary schools could be to establish community-based feeder schools in remote areas, bringing the lower grades of primary school closer to children in these areas. 2. Context in Nepal Data from NLSS III suggests that distance to school is not a significant barrier to age- appropriate entry into primary school in Nepal. When families of out-of-school 6 year-old children were asked why their child was not enrolled in school, only 4% responded that “the school was too far away”, as represented in 19 These results must be interpreted with caution, because 6 year-olds attending Early Childhood Development (ECD) centers were not asked this question. Thus, the results show why these 6 year-olds are not attending any school (not even ECD centers), but it does not exactly answer why they are not attending primary school. 20 In this analysis, 6 year-olds attending ECD centers were considered to be out-of-school, since the purpose of this analysis is to see the relationship between the distance to primary school and children’s enrollment in primary school. 21 These results must be interpreted with caution, because information on distance to school was missing for 33.4% of in-school and 24.0% of out-of-school 6 year-olds in the survey. 12 for a child to travel to school, the same analysis was conducted using travel time to the closest primary school. Again, the results were similar for the in-school and out-of-school 6 year-olds, as represented in B. Multilingual education 1. Literature review Children whose mother tongue is different from the language of instruction could face significant barriers to age-appropriate entry into primary schools. According to Benson (2012), children who are not educated in their mother tongue can have low educational attainment, and are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of school, which have been documented in countries including Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico, Mozambique, Zambia, and Vietnam. This problem is also related to late entry into primary school, because when families perceive that the return to their children’s schooling will be low because of the language barrier, they may decide to delay their children’s school enrollment until they are more fluent in the language of instruction. To address the issue of language barriers in education, Ball (2010) and Benson (2012) 22 These results must be interpreted with caution, because information on distance to school was missing for 29.9% of 6 year-olds in the survey. 13 have strongly advocated for mother tongue-based bilingual or multilingual education for young children. They argue that teaching young children in their mother tongue will significantly improve their literacy, develop their cognitive skills, and provide them with a strong foundation for educational achievement in all of the school subjects. They also recommend that the dominant language of society should first be taught orally in the lower grades of primary school, then gradually phased into the curriculum in the written form in the higher grades. This will allow children to transfer the knowledge and skills that they had already acquired through their mother tongue into their second language. This model of mother tongue-based bilingual or multilingual education is already being implemented in several countries, including Bolivia and Mozambique. 2. Context in Nepal Multilingual education is relevant to the context of Nepal where there are more than 100 languages spoken as a mother tongue. In fact, there are already policy frameworks to support multilingual education in Nepal. As mentioned previously, the Interim Constitution of Nepal (2007) states that “each community shall have the right to get basic education in their mother tongue as provided for in the law (Article 17.1)” The Ministry of Education’s School Sector Reform Plan (2009) also aims to introduce mother tongue-based multilingual education in 7,500 schools by 2015. To support this, the Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education strategy was established in 2010. This strategy recommends that in pre-primary school, the mother tongue should be used as the language of instruction; in grades 1-3, the mother tongue should be used as the language of instruction for all subjects, except Nepali and English; in grades 4-5, the mother tongue and a second language (specified by the community) should be used as the language of 14 instruction for all subjects, except Nepali and English; and in grades 6-8, the second language and mother tongue should be used as the language of instruction, while other languages may also be taught as subjects (UNESCO, 2011). In spite of these policy frameworks, only 25 schools are currently implementing the MT-MLE strategy (Tumbahang, 2014). Challenges to implementing the strategy include the existence of more than one local language in a community, parents’ preference to education their children in Nepali or English, and the lack of textbooks, teacher training, and coordination among stakeholders (UNESCO, 2011). Data from NLSS III shows that among children aged 6, only 42.4% speak Nepali as their mother tongue, as represented in C. Conditional cash transfers to the poorest quintile 1. Literature review According to studies on school enrollment patterns in developing countries by Glewwe 23 Even when all 27 languages spoken as a mother tongue by the 6 year-olds were included in the multivariate analysis, only Bhojpuri had a statistically significant and negative correlation. 15 and Jacoby (1992, 1995), children from poor families are more likely to enter late into primary school, attend school irregularly, and drop out of school early. Using data from the Ghana Living Standards Survey, they found that poorer households were more likely to delay their children’s school enrollment for longer periods, controlling for many other variables such as age, nutritional status, parents’ education, number of siblings, distance to school, school facilities, school fees, etc. One explanation they offered was that poor families have less resources to invest in their children’s education, and even though this investment would be profitable in the future, they face borrowing constraints to finance their children’s education (in other words, they are not able to borrow against their children’s future earnings). Consequently, poorer families take longer to accumulate enough savings to send their children to school, delaying their enrollment. Bommier and Lambert (2000)’s research using data from the Tanzania Human Resource Development Survey also support the claim that children from poor households are likely to enroll later in school. Assuming that a borrowing constraint is a barrier to age-appropriate enrollment among poor families, conditional cash transfers could be an effective solution. In Mexico, a conditional cash transfer program called Oportunidades (formerly called PROGRESA) began in 1997 to improve education and health outcomes among poor families (Behrman, Parker, & Todd, 2009). Beneficiaries of this program were given bimonthly cash transfers and young children were given nutritional supplements, with the condition that all family members should regularly visit health clinics, while all school-aged children should regularly attend school. (The educational grants were given to children from the third grade of primary school to the third grade of high school.) A study by Bando, Lopez-Calva and Patrinos (2005) found that this program resulted in improved educational outcomes among the beneficiaries, including reduced repetition, dropout, 16 and child labor rates, as well as increased school attendance. Behrman et al. (2009) also found that this program had a statistically significant impact on reducing the beneficiaries’ age at entry into primary school. It is not clear whether the nutritional supplements for young children made them more developmentally ready to enter school earlier, or whether families were enrolling their children in school earlier in anticipation of the education grants made available to students from grade 3. Nevertheless, this example shows that a well-designed conditional cash transfer program to poor families may be able to increase poor children’s age-appropriate entry into primary school. 2. Context in Nepal In Nepal, only 51.6% of 6 year-olds from the poorest consumption quintile (a proxy for wealth) are enrolled in primary school, while the percentage among the richest quintile is 63.7%, as represented in Nepal (which constitutes 33.4% of children aged 6, as shown in Currently in Nepal, the Ministry of Education is administering several cash transfer programs in the form of scholarships. According to a report by Acharya (2007), there are 24 Poor families have more children, which is why more than 20% of children are in the poorest consumption quintile. (Consumption quintiles are based on household consumption, not individual consumption.) 17 scholarships for poor students (targeting half of the poor students in primary schools, $3.50 per student per year), scholarships for girls (targeting half of the girls aged 6-10 attending primary school, $3.50 per student per year), and scholarships for Dalits (targeting all Dalits in primary school, $3.50 per student per year). However, Pandy and Josh (2014) claim that the educational impacts of these cash transfer programs have been modest, due to several reasons. First, the scholarships are not conditional on school attendance or educational achievement, so some students stop attending school after collecting the scholarship. Second, even though public primary schools are free, the amount of the scholarships (mostly ranging from $3.50 to $5.00 per student per year) is not adequate to cover the opportunity costs and indirect costs (for uniforms, school supplies, transportation, etc.) of attending school. Third, many of the scholarships target demographic categories instead of the poor, so those who need it the most may not be eligible. Lastly, there are substantial leakages during the disbursement of funds, because the scholarships are delivered in cash to the schools, and nearly all record-keepings are done manually. This suggests that there will be some realistic challenges to implementing conditional cash transfers to poor families to increase children’s on-time entry into primary schools. D. Early Childhood Development programs for all children 1. Literature review Many studies have shown that Early Childhood Development (ECD)25 programs can provide a strong foundation for achieving other basic education goals. For example, a study on eight states in India found that the survival rate to fourth grade was around 50% among those who had no ECD experience, while it was almost 70% among those who had ECD experience 25 In this paper, the term Early Childhood Development (ECD) also refers to Early Childhood Education (ECE), Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE), Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD), and pre-primary education. 18 (Chaturvedi, Srivastava, Singh, & Prasad, 1987). In addition, a study by Arnold, Bartlett, Gowani and Merali (2007) concluded that children who participate in ECD programs have lower dropout and repetition rates, as well as higher educational achievement later in their life. This study also found that the benefits of ECD programs are greater for disadvantaged children, since it compensates for the unsupportive environment they have at home. There are also studies that show that ECD programs can increase a child’s readiness for primary schools. For example, Arnold et al. (2007) explain that well-designed ECD programs can ease the transition of young children into primary schools by supporting their development in five domains: physical well-being and motor development (health, growth, disabilities, etc.); social and emotional development (ability to control one’s own behavior, ability to play and work with other children); approaches to learning (enthusiasm, curiosity, persistence, temperament, etc.); language development (vocabulary, grammar, ability to learn and communicate); and cognition and general knowledge (learning to observe, noting similarities and differences, etc.). They found that children who attended ECD programs in India and Guatemala were more likely to enter primary schools at the appropriate age, and less likely to repeat a grade (the other cause of overage students in schools). In Mozambique, a randomized impact evaluation found that children who attended ECD programs were 10.2 percentage points more likely to enroll in primary school at the right age, compared to a control group (Berman, 2013). These results suggest that ECD programs could be an effective policy intervention to increase age-appropriate entry into primary schools. 2. Context in Nepal 19 why their child was not enrolled in school in the NLSS III survey, 55% responded that “the child was too young”, even though they had passed the legal age of enrollment (age 5). Although it is difficult to tell what the parents meant by the child being too young, it is unlikely that they were unaware of the legal age of enrollment in primary schools, considering the government launches nation-wide “Welcome to School” campaigns every year. Instead, they may have been referring to the fact that their child was not cognitively, physically, socially, and emotionally developed enough to attend school. If this is true, a well-designed and holistic ECD program can be very effective in helping the transition of young children into primary schools. In fact, a recent study on the impact of ECD services on children’s school readiness in Nepal (Sharma & Shrestha, 2012) found that children in grade 1 who had ECD experience were more developed in several dimensions, compared to those without ECD experience. Cognitively, children with ECD experience had basic skills in literacy and numeracy, and could communicate with teachers and peers in their mother tongue and/or Nepali. Socially, they easily mingled with peers, and actively participated in school activities. Emotionally, they were comfortable asking and answering questions, and interacted well with adults and peers. According to official data from the Ministry of Education (2013), there are 34,174 ECD centers in the country (85.7% are public, including school-based and community-based centers, and 14.3% are private), while the GER for ECD programs is 73.7%,26 Based on NLSS III data, among 5 and 6 year-olds who were newly enrolled in grade 1, 71.4% had ECD experience in the previous year, as represented in 26 The denominator is the population of children aged 3-4. 20 were enrolled in primary school in the year of the survey, as shown in IV. Evaluation of policy options 29 A. Effectiveness This indicator measures how effective the policy will be in increasing on-time entry into primary schools. The results of the multivariate analyses (using NLSS III data) can be used to predict the effectiveness of each policy option, because it shows how strong each variable is correlated with the chances of a child being enrolled in primary school at age 6. Since distance to school did not have a statistically significant correlation, building feeder schools will not be very effective in increasing on-time entry into primary schools (1 point). As for mother tongue, only 1 language (which is spoken by 18.0% of the 6 year-olds) had a negative correlation with the chances of a child entering primary school on time. Therefore, offering multilingual education to children who do not speak Nepali as their mother tongue may not significantly increase the number of children who enter primary schools on time (2 points). On the other hand, being in the poorest quintile (which constitutes 33.4% of children aged 6) decreased the chances of a child 27 This result must be interpreted with caution, because information on a child’s educational experience in the previous year was missing for 16.0% of the sample. 28 Again, this result must be interpreted with caution, because information on a child’s educational experience in the previous year was missing for 16.0% of the sample. 29 Each criterion is measured on a scale of 1 to 5. A matrix of each policy option and the points for each criterion is summarized in 21 entering primary school on time by 46.0%. Thus, offering cash transfers to children in the poorest quintile, with the condition that they enter primary school on time, may be effective in increasing their on-time entry into primary schools (3 points). Lastly, prior ECD experience increased the chances of a child entering primary school on time by 3.737 times. Therefore, among these four policy options, ECD programs may be the most effective in increasing age- appropriate entry into primary schools (5 points). B. Cost 30 The cost of establishing feeder schools will be very high, because in addition to building the physical infrastructure of schools, extra teachers will have to be trained and deployed to the new schools, and the facilities will have to be maintained regularly. Among all of the policy options, this will have the highest costs (1 point). The conditional cash transfer program will also be costly, because the transfer amount for each student will need to be high enough to offset the indirect and opportunity costs of a poor child attending school. In addition, the program will require additional staff to disburse the funds and to check if students are meeting the conditions (2 points). The costs of expanding ECD programs to all children will also be high. Considering the GER for ECD programs is 73.7% (MoE, 2013), the current program capacity needs to be increased to accommodate all 3 to 4 year-olds in the ECD centers. Also, more funding is required to ensure high-quality ECD services in all existing centers. In addition, some components need to be added or strengthened to better support the transition of children into primary schools at the appropriate age, which will be explained in more detail later (2 points). Lastly, for multilingual education, the initial costs of training teachers and developing textbooks for each language will 30 Lower cost receives higher points. 22 be high. However, once the program is established and integrated into the existing teacher training program, the costs of continuing the program will decrease substantially (4 points). C. Targeting This indicator measures whether the policy option specifically targets the demographic group that is facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, which indicates how efficiently the resources will be used for addressing the problem. Feeder schools target children who live far away from schools. However, since distance to school is not a significant barrier to on-time entry into primary schools, this policy option is inherently weak in targeting (1 point). As for multilingual education, among the children whose mother tongue is not Nepali, only 31.3% speak a language that decreases their chances of entering primary school on time.31 Therefore, multilingual education does not specifically target those who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school (2 points). Expanding ECD programs will benefit all children, not just those who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, so this policy option also does not specifically target those who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that the benefits will be greater for disadvantaged children (2 points). Conditional cash transfers to the poorest consumption quintile specifically targets poor children, a group that has low chances of entering primary school on time, so this option is the best in terms of targeting (5 points). D. Political feasibility 32 Assuming that politicians’ support for a policy will be proportional to the number of 31 Calculated using NLSS III data. 32 The statistics in this section were calculated with NLSS III data. 23 voters (citizens aged 18 and above) that support the policy, and that voters will support policies that directly benefit their demographic group, the political feasibility of a policy option can be measured by the size of the demographic group (within the voting population) that will benefit from the policy. Since most people live close to a primary school, in order to increase the number of people who benefit from the feeder schools, these schools would need to be built extremely close to people’s homes. However, even if feeder schools were built for all families that live 3 km or more from a primary school, still only 6.8% of the voting population would benefit from this policy (1 point). As for conditional cash transfers, 20.1% of the voting population are in the poorest quintile, so this policy would be supported by one-fifth of the voting population (2 points). Regarding multilingual education, 50.0% of the voting population do not speak Nepali as their mother tongue, so this policy would be supported by one-half of the voting population (3 points). Lastly, expanding ECD programs will benefit all children, not just a particular demographic group, so this policy would be supported by all of the voting population (5 points). V. Policy recommendation – ECD programs for all children A. Trade-offs Among the four policy options considered in section above, expanding ECD programs to all children would be the best alternative for increasing on-time entry into primary schools. It scores the highest on effectiveness, as evidenced by the results of the multivariate analysis. It is also the most politically feasible option, since it benefits all children, instead of a particular demographic group. However, because of this last point, this policy option does not score high on targeting the children who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, which decreases the 24 efficient use of resources for addressing this policy problem. Also, this option is costly, because the current program capacity needs to be expanded, more funding is required to ensure high- quality ECD services in all existing centers, and some components need to be added or strengthened. Nevertheless, ECD programs contribute to other long-term and significant educational, health, and economic outcomes for the individual child as well as the society at large, which justifies the high costs of this policy option. In fact, ECD is being recognized as one of the most cost-effective investments that a country can make in the long term (Denboba et al., 2014). B. Current ECD policy ECD is not included in the basic education structure, and a child is not required to have ECD experience before enrolling in grade 1. Nevertheless, according to Kadel and Mahat (2011), ECD programs in Nepal have expanded rapidly since 2000, the year the international community adopted the Dakar Framework for Action to reconfirm its commitment to the EFA goals, the first of which concerns the expansion and improvement of comprehensive ECD programs, especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children. In 2003, the Nepal Ministry of Education developed the EFA National Plan of Action to support the achievement of the EFA goals, aiming to establish at least one ECD center in each ward,33 as well as support a holistic approach to ECD programs that integrates education, health, nutrition, and sanitation services. In 2004, the Department of Education developed the Strategy Paper for ECD in Nepal, reconfirming the government’s commitment to expand ECD programs, especially targeting vulnerable and disadvantaged children, and to support children’s holistic development. In 2009, the Ministry of 33 The lowest administrative division of Nepal. 25 Education developed the School Sector Reform Plan which includes a section on ECD programs. The extension of this plan, developed in 2014, specifically mentions that the goal of ECD programs is to “foster children’s all-round development, laying a firm foundation for basic education (MoE, 2014).” Although there are gaps between these national policies and implementation on the ground, at least in principle, these policies can be very effective in supporting children’s transition into primary school at the appropriate age. Enrollment in the ECD centers takes place at the beginning of every school year, and each center can enroll 25 to 30 children. These children can stay in the ECD centers for a maximum of two years. The ECD facilitators are selected from the local community, and they facilitate the classes in the local language. In terms of funding, the Ministry of Education allocates approximately $420 to each ECD center, per year, to remunerate the ECD facilitator and cover other managerial costs. However, any additional costs are expected to be mobilized by communities and parents, resulting in varying qualities of ECD services depending on the wealth of the community (S. L. Bhusal, personal communication, January 14, 2015). The following section provides some recommendations on improving the current ECD program to better support the transition of children into primary school at the appropriate age. C. Recommendations to improve current ECD programs 1. Support children’s holistic development ECD programs will be most effective in supporting the transition of young children into primary school if it develops the child holistically - cognitively, physically, socially, and emotionally. Although the principle of holistic development is included in Nepal’s ECD policies, in practice, there are areas for improvement. Most importantly, nutrition and health components 26 are missing from most public ECD programs, with the exception of ECD centers that are supported by UN agencies and international NGOs (Kadel & Mahat, 2011). Poor nutrition and health among young children can lead to impaired cognitive ability and reduced performance in school and work later in life, which is why it is very important to strengthen the nutrition and health component in the ECD programs. For example, ECD centers can provide midday meals, micronutrient powder (MNP) supplements, regular health check-ups, growth monitoring, and deworming services. In addition, there needs to be more coordination among the concerned ministries at various levels of government. At the national level, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health and Population, the Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare, and the Ministry of Local Development should collaborate to ensure that their policies support a coherent and holistic ECD policy. The recent establishment of the National ECD Steering Committee, chaired by the vice-chair of the National Planning Committee, is a promising step towards inter-sectoral collaboration. Coordination at lower administrative levels is also very important, since the delivery of health and educational services in Nepal is decentralized. At the District level, ECD Committees have already been established in all Districts to develop and implement inter- sectoral ECD plans (Kadel & Mahat, 2011). This committee includes officers from the District Development Committee, District Education Office, District Public Health Office, District Women Development Office, and other civil society organizations. However, field studies have revealed that many District ECD Committees lack the capacity to develop holistic ECD plans, few district-level officers are active in the District ECD Committee (except the District Education Officers), and many officers are unwilling to take on work related to ECD programs in the absence of directives from their central ministry. Therefore, the above-mentioned ministries 27 need to collaborate to develop the capacity of their District-level officers to formulate holistic ECD plans,34 as well as provide operational guidelines on supporting inter-sectoral ECD programs at the District-level. 2. Engage parents It is very important to engage parents in ECD programs, because they play a critical role in supporting the holistic development of children. For example, better feeding practices at home will improve the physical development of children, reading them books and teaching them nursery rhymes at home can improve their cognitive development, letting them play regularly with their peers can develop them socially, and establishing a warm and interactive relationship with them will support their emotional development (Sylva, Melhuish, Sammons, Siraj- Blatchford, & Taggart, 2004). These attitudes and practices can be promoted among parents by engaging them in parental education classes at ECD centers. Unfortunately, many ECD programs in Nepal do not have a parental engagement component, even though Nepal’s ECD policies highlight the importance of parental engagement (Kadel & Mahat, 2011). In some ECD centers supported by UNICEF, regular parental orientation classes have been provided on topics such as children’s education, health, nutrition, gender equity, pre-natal and post-natal care. A study found that parents that had participated in such parental education classes had better practices that supported children’s physical, social, and emotional development, compared to parents without such exposure (UNICEF & CERID, 2009). Such initiatives need to be expanded to other ECD centers in order to maximize the impact of ECD programs on children’s holistic development and their timely transition into primary schools. 34 UNICEF Nepal has been supporting this in 15 Districts. 28 Parental engagement is also very important because they are the ones who decide when their child will enter primary school, and how long they will attend school. The parental education classes mentioned above are good opportunities to inform parents about the educational, health, and economic returns of education, as well as the importance of transitioning to primary school on time. 3. Attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age It is very important to attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age, because late entry into ECD programs can lead to late entry into primary schools. Currently, 44.1% of children enrolled in ECD centers are aged 6 and above, as shown in Although some may argue that parents who are reluctant to enroll their children in primary school on time will also be reluctant to enroll their children in ECD programs on time, it could be easier to convince parents to enroll their children in ECD programs by focusing advocacy on the following points. First, the opportunity costs for attending school is lower for 3 to 4 year-olds, compared to 5 year-olds, since young children are able to contribute less to household chores and other economic activities at home. Second, ECD programs focus on the holistic development of the child, instead of just academic achievement, so parents can be less concerned about whether their child is developmentally ready to attend ECD programs. In fact, the holistic nature of ECD programs will help make children ready to attend formal schools. Third, as already proven by studies in Nepal and around the world, ECD programs will bring long-term benefits in education, health, and life-time earnings for children and their families. According to a study by Heckman (2008), a Nobel laureate in economics, the rate-of-return for 29 investment in ECD programs is even higher than the rate-of-return for primary education. The national “Welcome to School” campaigns that the government launches annually can be a good opportunity to advocate these messages to parents, encouraging them to enroll their children in ECD programs at the appropriate age. 4. Promote transition to primary school Related to the point above, ECD programs should promote children’s transition into primary school at the appropriate age. To do this, ECD centers can arrange visits for children, as well as their parents, to a primary school during the last few months of the ECD program, or grade 1 teachers can visit ECD centers to meet with children and their parents. These exchanges will familiarize children and their parents with the primary school environment, making the transition easier. These exchanges can also be facilitated by designating a nearby primary school as a “partner school” for the ECD center. Some countries, including Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam, have gone even further to ease the transition of children into primary schools by administratively integrating the ECD system into the primary education system (UNESCO, 2006). Such structural integration can create a more coherent system of policy, administration, and monitoring. Other countries, such as Jamaica and Guyana, have an integrated curriculum for ECD programs and primary schools, using similar teaching methods and learning material, making the transition easier for children. In Nepal, the Child-Friendly Schools Initiative (CFSI), which is currently being rolled-out nationally, shares many overlapping principles with ECD programs, since both aim to provide holistic support to children in schools (Nepal Ministry of Education, 2011). Therefore, increasing the coordination between these two policies can ensure continuity in a child’s experience in 30 school, making the transition to primary schools easier. VI. Summary and conclusion In Nepal, 68.1% of students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or more. This problem is first caused by the high proportion of late entry into primary school, and it is exacerbated by high repetition rates A high proportion of overage students in school is a serious problem, because it can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom, and national level. Also, it highlights a problem of educational equity in Nepal, because there are statistically significant correlations between the profile of a child aged 5-16 (the appropriate age range for attending primary and secondary schools) and their chances of being overage for their grade. This paper presents four policy options to address the initial cause of the problem, late entry into primary schools. The policy options are 1) building feeder schools in remote areas to shorten the distance to schools, 2) providing multilingual education to children whose mother tongue is not Nepali, 3) providing cash transfers to children in the poorest consumption quintile, with the condition that they enroll in primary school on time, and 4) expanding ECD programs to all children. These policy options were evaluated on the criteria of 1) effectiveness in increasing on-time entry into primary schools, 2) cost of implementing the policy, 3) specific targeting of the demographic group that is facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, and 4) political feasibility, measured by the size of the demographic group that will benefit from the policy. Based on these criteria, expanding ECD programs to all children was found to be the best policy option for increasing on-time entry into primary schools. Although this policy does not score high on cost and targeting, these shortcomings are justified by the other significant and 31 long-term benefits in education, health, and life-time earnings to individuals and the society. The current ECD program in Nepal can better support the transition of children into primary school at the appropriate age by following several recommendations. First, the ECD programs should support the holistic development of children, so they are cognitively, physically, socially, and emotionally ready to attend primary school. To achieve this, there needs to be more coordination among the concerned ministries at various levels of government. Second, parents need to be engaged in the ECD programs, because they play a critical role in supporting the holistic development of children, and they also decide when their child will transition to primary school. Parental education classes at ECD centers can be a good way to increase parental engagement. Third, it is important to attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age, because late entry into ECD programs can lead to late entry into primary schools. The national “Welcome to School” campaigns that the government launches annually can be a good opportunity to advocate key messages to parents on the benefits of enrolling their children in ECD programs on time. Lastly, ECD programs should promote children’s transition into primary school by familiarizing children and their parents with the primary school environment. Coordinating the policies for ECD programs and primary education can also make the transition easier for children. Through the recommendations above, expanding ECD programs to all children can significantly increase the number of children who enter primary school on time, which will decrease the number of overage students in primary and secondary schools in Nepal. 32 APPENDIX 1: Figures < Figure 1 > Appropriate age for enrollment in each grade Source: Pherali, T., Smith, A., & Vaux, T. (2011). Political Economy Analysis of Education in Nepal. Kathmandu: European Union. < Figure 2 > NER in primary school Source: Government of Nepal (GoN) & United Nations Country Team (UNCT) of Nepal. (2013). Nepal Millennium Development Goals: Progress Report 2013. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. 33 < Figure 3-a > NER and GER in different levels of school (MoE, 2013) Source: Graph made with data from Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level Educational Statistics of Nepal: Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. < Figure 3-b > NER and GER in different levels of school (NLSS, 2011) Source: Graph made with data from Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). (2011). Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010-2011. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. 34 < Figure 4-a > Promotion, repetition, and dropout rates Source: Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level Educational Statistics of Nepal: Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. < Figure 4-b > Promotion and repetition rates of students enrolled in school for 2 consecutive years (MoE, 2013) Source: Author’s calculations with data from Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level Educational Statistics of Nepal: Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal. 35 < Figure 4-c > Promotion and repetition rates of students enrolled in school for 2 consecutive years (NLSS, 2011) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All students in survey who were enrolled in grades 1-8 in the year before the survey and were also enrolled in school during the year of the survey Number of observations: 5,983 (weighted by individual sample weights) 36 < Figure 5-a > School enrollment - by age < Figure 5-b > Level of school enrolled in - by age Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey Number of observations: 8,722 (weighted by individual sample weights) 37 < Figure 6-a > Grade enrolled in - by age < Figure 6-b > Children aged 5-16 who are over/underage in their grade * Note: Blue signifies the child is appropriate-age for the grade (including 1 year overage), green signifies the child is underage for the grade, and red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or more). Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey Number of observations: 8,722 (weighted by individual sample weights) 38 < Figure 7–a > Age of students - by grade < Figure 7–b > Students in grade 1-12 who are over/underage in their grade * Note: Blue signifies the child is appropriate-age for the grade (including 1 year overage), green signifies the child is underage for the grade, and red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or more). Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All students enrolled in grades 1-12 in survey Number of observations: 8,608 (weighted by individual sample weights) 39 < Figure 7-c > Age of new entrants in grade 1 * Note: Blue signifies the child is appropriate-age for the grade (including 1 year overage), green signifies the child is underage for the grade, and red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or more). Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All students in survey newly enrolled in grade 1 Number of observations: 898 (weighted by individual sample weights) < Figure 8 > Proportion of overage students in primary school – South Asia Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Overage students in primary schools. In UIS Stat. Retrieved from http://data.uis.unesco.org/ (accessed October 22, 2014). 40 < Figure 9-a > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 5-16 and their chances of being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below) Increased odds Odds Logit df Sig. of being in age- ratio = coefficient appropriate Exp(B) = B grade Gender Female (compared to Male) 13.9% 1.139 .130 1 .013 Caste/Ethnicity 2 .000 Low caste (compared to High caste) -44.6% .554 -.591 1 .000 Middle caste (compared to High caste) -38.1% .619 -.480 1 .000 Religion 3 .017 Muslim (compared to Hindu) -41.9% .581 -.542 1 .002 Buddhist (compared to Hindu) 7.6% 1.076 .073 1 .544 Other religion (compared to Hindu) 7.5% 1.075 .072 1 .597 Language 4 .000 Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -38.6% .614 -.488 1 .000 Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -42.0% .580 -.544 1 .000 Tharu language (compared to Nepali) 14.9% 1.149 .138 1 .322 Other language (compared to Nepali) -26.9% .731 -.314 1 .000 Disability Any disability (compared to No disability) -29.9% .701 -.356 1 .115 Consumption quintile (Wealth) -100.0% 4 .000 Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -64.0% .360 -1.022 1 .000 Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) -57.4% .426 -.853 1 .000 Consumption quintile 3 (compared to richest quintile) -46.9% .531 -.634 1 .000 Consumption quintile 4 (compared to richest quintile) -44.4% .556 -.587 1 .000 Urban Rural (compared to Urban) -26.7% .733 -.310 1 .000 Development region 4 .000 Far Western region (compared to Western) -31.8% .682 -.383 1 .000 Mid Western region (compared to Western) -32.4% .676 -.391 1 .000 Central region (compared to Western) -10.5% .895 -.110 1 .175 Eastern region (compared to Western) -12.1% .879 -.129 1 .147 Ecological Belt 2 .720 Mountain (compared to Hill) -7.6% .924 -.079 1 .436 Plains (compared to Hill) -2.7% .973 -.027 1 .704 Age -22.6% .774 -.257 1 .000 Constant 34.724 3.547 1 .000 41 < Figure 9-b > Effect of variables on the chances of a child aged 5-16 being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below), controlling for other variables Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey, excluding out-of-school children and children underage for their grade Number of observations: 7,652 Model chi-square: 1,478.717 (df = 23, p = 0.000) p < 0.01 -2 log likelihood: 8,679.447 p < 0.05 Nagelkerke R square: 0.239 42 < Figure 10 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children and increased chances of being in age-appropriate grade and in-school Being in Being in age- school 1 appropriate grade 2 Gender Female (compared to Male) -24.2% 13.9% Caste/Ethnicity Low caste (compared to High caste) -63.1% -44.6% Middle caste (compared to High caste) -53.4% -38.1% Religion Muslim (compared to Hindu) -41.5% -41.9% Buddhist (compared to Hindu) 17.5% 7.6% Other religion (compared to Hindu) -3.0% 7.5% Language Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -60.9% -38.6% Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -51.7% -42.0% Tharu language (compared to Nepali) 60.5% 14.9% Other language (compared to Nepali) -45.1% -26.9% Disability Any disability (compared to No disability) -77.2% -29.9% Consumption quintile (Wealth) -100.0% Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -83.7% -64.0% Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) -75.7% -57.4% Consumption quintile 3 (compared to richest quintile) -57.6% -46.9% Consumption quintile 4 (compared to richest quintile) -22.5% -44.4% Urban Rural (compared to Urban) 18.8% -26.7% Development region Far Western region (compared to Western) 24.0% -31.8% Mid Western region (compared to Western) -21.1% -32.4% Central region (compared to Western) -42.2% -10.5% Eastern region (compared to Western) 29.6% -12.1% Ecological Belt Mountain (compared to Hill) 23.6% -7.6% Plains (compared to Hill) -20.1% -2.7% Age -8.0% -22.6% 43 p < 0.01 p < 0.05 1) Analysis for being in school Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey Number of observations: 8,626 Model chi-square: 849.442 (df = 23, p = 0.000) -2 log likelihood: 4,537.700 Nagelkerke R square: 0.202 2) Analysis for being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below) Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey, excluding out-of-school children and children underage for grade Number of observations: 7,652 Model chi-square: 1,478.717 (df = 23, p = 0.000) -2 log likelihood: 8,679.447 Nagelkerke R square: 0.239 * All analyses Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III 44 < Figure 11-a > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6 and their chances of being enrolled in primary school Increased Odds Logit df Sig. odds of being ratio = coefficie enrolled in Exp(B) nt = B primary school Gender Female (compared to Male) 37.2% 1.372 .316 1 .048 Caste 2 .409 Low caste (compared to High caste) 24.5% 1.245 .219 1 .391 Middle caste (compared to High caste) 36.7% 1.367 .313 1 .188 Religion 3 .956 Muslim (compared to Hindu) 10.4% 1.104 .099 1 .821 Buddhist (compared to Hindu) -15.7% .843 -.170 1 .652 Other religion (compared to Hindu) -14.7% .853 -.159 1 .709 Language 4 .162 Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -44.6% .554 -.590 1 .090 Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -57.4% .426 -.853 1 .017 Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -31.3% .687 -.376 1 .371 Other language (compared to Nepali) -6.2% .938 -.064 1 .806 Disability Any disability (compared to No disability) -63.7% .363 -1.013 1 .098 Wealth 4 .203 Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -46.0% .540 -.617 1 .040 Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) -32.7% .673 -.396 1 .183 Consumption quintile 3 (compared to richest quintile) -44.6% .554 -.591 1 .049 Consumption quintile 4 (compared to richest quintile) -14.2% .858 -.153 1 .600 Urban Rural (compared to Urban) 43.9% 1.439 .364 1 .091 Development region 4 .719 Far Western (compared to Eastern) -22.3% .777 -.252 1 .465 Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) -27.7% .723 -.324 1 .270 Western region (compared to Eastern) -15.2% .848 -.164 1 .562 Central region (compared to Eastern) -26.4% .736 -.306 1 .217 Ecological Belt 2 .016 Hill (compared to Mountain) -37.5% .625 -.471 1 .162 Plains (compared to Mountain) -62.0% .380 -.968 1 .009 Constant 3.297 1.193 1 .008 45 < Figure 11-b > Effect of variables on the chances of a child aged 6 being enrolled in primary school, controlling for other variables Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (9 missing) Number of observations: 721 Model chi-square: 54.481 (df = 22, p = 0.000) p < 0.01 -2 log likelihood: 930.272 p < 0.05 Nagelkerke R square: 0.098 46 < Figure 12 > Reason for not attending school – age 6 Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey not enrolled in school Number of observations: 80 (weighted by individual sample weights) 47 < Figure 13-a > Distance to the closest primary school (age 6) < Figure 13-b > Travel time to the closest primary school (age 6) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (138 missing for in-school, 76 missing for out-of-school) Number of observations: 275 for in-school (weighted by individual sample weights) 241 for out-of-school (weighted by individual sample weights) 48 < Figure 14 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6 and their chances of being enrolled in primary school (including distance to primary school) Increased Odds ratio Logit df Sig. odds of being = Exp(B) coefficient enrolled in = B primary school Gender Female (compared to Male) 44.9% 1.449 .371 1 .052 Caste 2 .203 Low caste (compared to High caste) 65.6% 1.656 .505 1 .089 Middle caste (compared to High caste) 48.9% 1.489 .398 1 .181 Religion 3 .962 Muslim (compared to Hindu) -13.0% .870 -.140 1 .805 Buddhist (compared to Hindu) -21.6% .784 -.243 1 .627 Other religion (compared to Hindu) -5.9% .941 -.061 1 .906 Language 4 .121 Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -60.0% .400 -.915 1 .032 Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -65.0% .350 -1.050 1 .020 Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -43.3% .567 -.568 1 .236 Other language (compared to Nepali) -18.5% .815 -.204 1 .564 Disability Any disability (compared to No disability) -40.4% .596 -.517 1 .429 Wealth 4 .426 Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -2.6% .974 -.027 1 .947 Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) 53.2% 1.532 .427 1 .281 Consumption quintile 3 (compared to richest quintile) 1.5% 1.015 .015 1 .971 Consumption quintile 4 (compared to richest quintile) 20.9% 1.209 .190 1 .638 Urban Rural (compared to Urban) 38.3% 1.383 .325 1 .248 Development region 4 .533 Far Western (compared to Eastern) -28.1% .719 -.330 1 .376 Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) -37.3% .627 -.468 1 .145 Western region (compared to Eastern) -23.2% .768 -.264 1 .419 Central region (compared to Eastern) -34.2% .658 -.418 1 .146 Ecological Belt 2 .109 Hill (compared to Mountain) -36.3% .637 -.451 1 .217 Plains (compared to Mountain) -56.3% .437 -.827 1 .041 Distance to primary school (every 1 km) -7.6% .924 -.079 1 .326 Constant 1.816 .596 1 .266 Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (218 missing) Number of observations: 512 Model chi-square: 45.794 (df = 23, p = 0.003) p < 0.01 -2 log likelihood: 660.861 p < 0.05 Nagelkerke R square: 0.114 49 < Figure 15-a > Mother tongue of children (aged 6) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey Number of observations: 730 (weighted by individual sample weights) < Figure 15-b > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6) - by mother tongue Note: Red line represents the percentage of all 6 year-olds enrolled in primary school (55.0%) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey Number of observations: 730 (weighted by individual sample weights) 50 < Figure 16-a > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6) - by consumption quintile Note: Red line represents percentage of all 6 year-olds who are enrolled in primary school (55.0%) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey Number of observations: 730 (weighted by individual sample weights) < Figure 16-b > Consumption quintile of children (aged 6) Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey Number of observations: 730 (weighted by individual sample weights) 51 < Figure 17-a > ECD experience among children who entered primary school on time Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 5and 6 in survey, newly enrolled in grade 1 Number of observations: 399 (weighted by individual sample weights) < Figure 17-b > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6) - ECD experience in previous year Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey, not enrolled in primary school in previous year (117 missing) Number of observations: 444 (weighted by individual sample weights) 52 < Figure 18 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6 and their chances of being enrolled in primary school (including ECD experience) Increased odds of Odds ratio Logit df Sig. being enrolled in = Exp(B) coefficie primary school nt = B Gender Female (compared to Male) 43.8% 1.438 .363 1 .088 Caste 2 .081 Low caste (compared to High caste) 42.7% 1.427 .356 1 .281 Middle caste (compared to High caste) 98.4% 1.984 .685 1 .025 Religion 3 .610 Muslim (compared to Hindu) 46.6% 1.466 .383 1 .543 Buddhist (compared to Hindu) -44.4% .556 -.586 1 .251 Other religion (compared to Hindu) 9.9% 1.099 .095 1 .876 Language 4 .136 Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -29.4% .706 -.348 1 .452 Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -42.3% .577 -.550 1 .259 Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -74.0% .260 -1.346 1 .016 Other language (compared to Nepali) 12.5% 1.125 .118 1 .737 Disability Any disability (compared to No disability) -61.5% .385 -.954 1 .221 Wealth 4 .149 Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) 30.6% 1.306 .267 1 .502 Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) 21.9% 1.219 .198 1 .600 Consumption quintile 3 (compared to richest quintile) -32.7% .673 -.396 1 .292 Consumption quintile 4 (compared to richest quintile) -33.8% .662 -.412 1 .232 Urban Rural (compared to Urban) 42.3% 1.423 .353 1 .182 Development region 4 .921 Far Western (compared to Eastern) -1.0% .990 -.010 1 .983 Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) 37.3% 1.373 .317 1 .439 Western region (compared to Eastern) 4.6% 1.046 .045 1 .907 Central region (compared to Eastern) -2.0% .980 -.020 1 .952 Ecological Belt 2 .044 Hill (compared to Mountain) -29.2% .708 -.345 1 .453 Plains (compared to Mountain) -63.2% .368 -1.000 1 .044 ECD ECD experience (compared to no ECD) 273.7% 3.737 1.318 1 .000 Constant .508 -.678 1 .286 Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III Sample: All children aged 6 in survey, not enrolled in primary school in previous year (120 missing) Number of observations: 441 Model chi-square: 62.113(df = 23, p = 0.000) p < 0.01 -2 log likelihood: 543.787 p < 0.05 Nagelkerke R square: 0.176 53 APPENDIX 2: Evaluation of policy options Effective- Cost Political (low cost has Targeting TOTAL ness higher points) feasibility Feeder 1 1 1 1 4 Schools Multilingual 2 4 2 3 11 Education Conditional 3 2 5 2 12 cash transfer Early Childhood 5 2 2 5 14 Development * Note: Each criterion is evaluated on a scale of 1 to 5. 54 APPENDIX 3: Variables used in bivariate and multivariate analyses Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey Number of observations: 8,723 1) Gender - Male (49.4% of sample) - Female (50.6% of sample) 2) Caste/Ethnicity - High caste (38.6% of sample): Bangali, Baniya, Brahman, Chhetri, Jain, Kayastha, Marwadi, Newar, Nurang, Rajpur, Sanyasi, Thakuri - Middle caste (42.0% of sample): Adibasi/Janajati, Badhae, Barae, Bhediyar/Gaderi, Bhote, Bing/Binda, Bote, Brahmu/Baramu, Byansi, Chepang/Praja, Chhantal, Danwar, Darai, Dhanuk, Dhimal, Dura, Gangai, Gharti/Bhujel, Gurung, Haiam/Thakur, Haluwai, Hayu, Jirel, Kahar, Kalwar, Kamar, Kanu, Kewat, Kisan, Koche, Koiri, Kumal, Kurmi, Kusunda, Lepcha, Limbu, Lodh, Lohar, Magar, Majhi, Mali, Mallah, Meche, Munda, Pahari, Patharkata/Kuswadiya, Rai, Rajbansi, Rajbhar, Raji, Raute, Santhal, Sherpa, Sonar, Sudhi, Sunuwar, Tajpuriya, Tamang, Teli, Thakali, Thami, Tharu, Walung, Yadav, Yakkha, Yehlmo - Low caste (19.4% of sample): Badi, Bantar, Chamar/Harijan/Ram, Chidimar, Churaute, Dalit (other), Damain/Dholi, Dhobi, Dom, Dusadh/Parwan/Pasi, Gaine, Halkhor, Kami, Khatwe, Kumhar, Muhasar, Muslim, Nuniya, Sarki, Tatma * Note: Based on classification in Pivovarova, M. (2011). Caste, Gender and School Enrollment: Evidence from the Nepalese Living Standard Survey. Toronto: University of Toronto. 3) Religion - Hindu (83.3% of sample) - Buddhist (7.3% of sample) - Muslim (4.7% of sample) - Other religions (4.8% of sample) 4) Language spoken at home - Nepali (56.6% of sample) - Maitili (11.3% of sample) - Bhojpuri (8.4% of sample) - Tharu (4.9% of sample) - Other languages (18.8% of sample) 55 5) Disability - No disability (98.1% of sample) - Any disability (1.9% of sample): including physical, visual, hearing, speech, and mental disabilities 6) Consumption quintile: nominal per-capita household consumption (proxy for wealth) - Consumption quintile 1 (22.3% of sample), poorest quintile - Consumption quintile 2 (20.9% of sample) - Consumption quintile 3 (19.1% of sample) - Consumption quintile 4 (18.3% of sample) - Consumption quintile 5 (19.4% of sample), richest quintile 7) Urban and Rural - Urban (27.2% of sample) - Rural (72.8% of sample) 8) Development region: 5 official development regions of Nepal - Far-Western region (10.6% of sample) - Mid-Western region (15.4% of sample) - Western region (19.4% of sample) - Central region (32.3% of sample) - Eastern region (22.3% of sample) 9) Ecological belt: 3 official ecological belts of Nepal - Mountain (7.8% of sample) - Hills (47.2% of sample) - Plains (45.0% of sample) 10) Age - Age 5 (7.2% of sample) - Age 6 (8.4% of sample) - Age 7 (8.0% of sample) - Age 8 (8.2% of sample) - Age 9 (7.7% of sample) - Age 10 (9.4% of sample) - Age 11 (7.9% of sample) - Age 12 (9.7% of sample) - Age 13 (8.0% of sample) - Age 14 (8.4% of sample) - Age 15 (8.8% of sample) - Age 16 (8.3% of sample) 56 BIBLIOGRAPHY Acharya, S. 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