Project Lifecycle – Full Business Case Template

Project Name: Coventry Station Masterplan (CSMP)

Revision History (to be completed by the Applicant) Please keep record of the document’s Revision History using the table below:

Summary of changes made compared to previous version (please refer to previously received feedback Version and how issues have been Number File Name Date submitted addressed) Current Version DRAFT 1.1 WMCA FBC CSMP 24/10/17 Amendment to section C1. Previous Versions DRAFT 1.0 WMCA FBC CSMP 23/10/17

Review History (to be completed by the Reviewer/Approver) Summary of decision – whether approved or not – if not approved please explain the Date Business reason for non-approval and the additional Name of Reviewer Role Case Reviewed evidence that would be needed for approval

Applicant Details

Lead organisation: Coventry City Council

Lead contact: Colin Knight Position: Director, Transport & Highways

Phone number: 024 7683 4001 Email address: [email protected]

Postal address: Coventry City Council One Friargate, Floor 4 Coventry CV1 2GN

Local Authority area (base Coventry City Council location of lead organisation)

Ward (base location of lead Coventry, St Michaels Ward organisation):

Other organisations involved in SLC Rail, Systra, Equib, WSP, D5 Architects and Atkins project bid:

Content of the Business Case

Section A Status of Business Case Development

Section B Project Description and Background

Section C Strategic case and fit to Strategic Economic Plan Themes

Section D Economic case – Options Appraisal

Section E Commercial case – External Procurement (if appropriate)

Section F Financial Case – Financial Analysis of the recommended Option

Section G Programme Management Case – Achievability of Project Components

Section H Recommendation

Section I Appendices

➢ Coventry Station Masterplan visualisations ➢ Outputs/Outcomes methodology for Section C2 ➢ Profile for each Output / Outcome for Section F3/F4

➢ Detailed breakdown of Project Costs by month ➢ Full Project Plan ➢ Risk and Issues Log ➢ Detailed Project Governance ➢ CSMP Integrated Assurance and Approval Plan ➢ Stakeholder Engagement Strategy ➢ Project Team - SLC CVs ➢ Additional Green Book Requirements

Section J ➢ Monitoring and Evaluation Plan

Purpose of the FBC The key purpose of the FBC is to:

• Revisit the OBC and new assumptions (e.g. resulting from the procurement); • Confirm that the recommended solution continues to optimise VfM; and, • Establish that the management arrangements for successful delivery are in place.

The aim of the Full Business Case (FBC) Stage is to provide a mechanism for appraising projects against a comprehensive set of criteria for each of the Five Business Cases. The FBC Stage will revisit the assumptions and main findings from the OBC which may have changed for example due to procurement arrangements, but will also bring forward new evidence on issues such as procurement and management strategy.

Section A: Status of Business Case Development

Section A1: Status & Progress to-date

1. Present status of the Project. i.e. is the project at a fledgling/early stage, or is the project part-way through and needs additional funding or is it more developed than that? The Coventry Station Masterplan (CSMP) scheme is the largest component of ‘Coventry City Centre First’ which is a package of transport improvements aimed at improving connectivity to UK Central and HS2 and boosting jobs and growth in the city centre. The Coventry City Centre First’ SOBC was submitted to WMCA in March 2017 and approval was granted for the CSMP element of the package to move directly to Full Business Case submission due to the fact that the scheme is well developed and has a significant amount of committed funding with Phase 1 works already on site. Out of the current anticipated final cost of the scheme of £82m a total of £42.6m has already been secured (including £10.9m prudential borrowing), leaving £39.4m being sought from WMCA through this FBC. All elements of the project are now at single option development stage (Network Rail GRIP 4) with the exception of the Warwick Road underpass for which the first phase has been delivered. The procurement strategy has been agreed for GRIP 5-8, and procurement will commence in November upon completion of GRIP 4 design. Planning applications will be submitted in December 2017, with approval anticipated in February 2018. Pre-planning public engagement is due to commence in October, which will involve an exhibition, drop in sessions and targeted stakeholder group meetings. The project also requires acquisition of third party land to deliver the western highways infrastructure (referred to in the SOBC as Friargate West), bus interchange and part of the access infrastructure required to complete the NUCKLE bay platform. Negotiations with the land owners are progressing and in parallel a Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) is being prepared, which will be made subject to approval of the remaining project funding via this FBC. A CPO will only be required if negotiations are not successful. The project delivery will be phased to minimise disruption to the railway station, which will remain in operation throughout programme delivery. The phasing of the programme is as follows: CSMP Key Milestone Planned Completion Planning Application December 2017 Finalise Land Acquisition (CPO process) Spring 2019 NUCKLE Phase 1.2 May 2019 Footbridge and Canopies Summer 2019 Highways Phased delivery Spring 2019 – End 2020 New Station Building End 2020 Multi-storey Car Park End 2020 Bus Interchange Summer 2021 Table 1: Coventry Station Masterplan Programme Phases Coventry City Council granted Cabinet Approval for the scheme to proceed in January 2017. A Cabinet Report will be tabled in November 2017 to obtain approval for the proposed procurement strategy. A further Cabinet Report will be tabled in January 2018 seeking approval to utilise the authority’s CPO powers if needed.

2. Progress achieved prior to Bid. What has been achieved so far within the project?

Coventry Station Masterplan Milestone Date element

Programme Wide Funding approved (CWLEP Growth Funds plus £5m Mar 2015 DfT/NR for NUCKLE 1.2

Initial Coventry City Council Cabinet Approval for scheme Mar 2015 development

Coventry City Council Cabinet Approval for preferred Jan 2017 scheme

CWLEP funding approved for Friargate West Mar 2017

WMCA Strategic Outline Case approval May 2017

Phase 1 - NUCKLE 1.2, Network Rail GRIP 4 commenced (in parallel with GRIP 3 Mar 2017 Footbridge, Canopies, Station close out) Access Underpass, Substation Phase 1 Station Access Underpass Works Complete May 2017

Rail industry Station Change Consultation process Jun 2017 completed

Network Rail GRIP 3 stage-gate achieved Aug 2017

Phase 2 - New Station building, Network Rail GRIP 4 commenced Mar 2017 MSCP, highway works, bus station Network Rail GRIP 3 stage-gate achieved Sep 2017

Table 2: Project Progress to Date

3. Has this project been subject to any other assurance frameworks? A number of components of the Masterplan have been subject to the assurance process required as part of obtaining funding from Coventry and Warwickshire Local Enterprise Partnership (CWLEP) and the Department for Transport (DfT). These are listed below:

Coventry Station Masterplan element Assurance Process Date

NUCKLE 1.2 DfT Major Scheme Business Case April 2014

Coventry Station Footbridge and Canopies, CWLEP – FBC – Five Case model January 2016 Warwick Road underpass and substation

Coventry Station Secondary Entrance and Bus CWLEP – FBC – Five Case model January 2016 Interchange

Friargate West Highway improvements CWLEP – FBC - Five Case model March 2017

Table 3: CSMP Funding Assurance Approvals

Section B: Project Description and Background

Please refer to the Initial Proposal Q.1 for project description – update if necessary

The Coventry Station Masterplan project comprises:

Phase 1

• A new pedestrian underpass across Warwick Road linking the bus interchange directly to the railway station at platform level; • Direct access to all platforms via a new glazed footbridge, new platform canopies, lifts and stairs; • NUCKLE 1.2 bay platform and associated track and signalling works to enable a more frequent service of trains between Nuneaton and Coventry and greater operational flexibility; • A new substation to provide additional power capacity for new infrastructure at the station;

Phase 2

• A new station building, providing a second entrance into the station from Warwick Road; • New 633 space Multi-Storey Car Park (MSCP), creating an additional 152 car parking spaces for rail growth and a further 149 spaces to serve the adjacent Friargate development (332 are replacement rail spaces); • New 6 bay bus interchange to the west of Warwick Road, including provision of 2 bays for rail replacement coaches connected directly to the new station building via the new pedestrian access tunnel under Warwick Road; • New highway infrastructure (referred to in the SOBC as Friargate West), including a new north-south link road to connect the bus interchange to the ring road, a new roundabout and realignment of Warwick Road and new road to provide access to the MSCP directly onto Warwick Road; • Highway improvements including new roads linking to the new station building and MSCP to the east of Warwick Road, along with a new link road connecting Central Six to the ring road. • New taxi rank and drop off facilities. A schematic of the Masterplan project is shown below (Figure 1) illustrating the relationship with the Friargate development and project and highways/access improvements. Further visualisations can be found in Appendix I1.

Figure 1: Coventry Station Masterplan Strategic Schematic

Strategic Case

Section C: Strategic Case for Change and fit to WMCA Strategic Economic Plan Themes

Section C1: Overview and Rationale

Please refer to the Initial Proposal Qs 2-4 for Overview and Rationale Overview Coventry is a dynamic and fast growing city where transport investment is needed to keep pace with rapid change. Coventry’s Strategic Transport Investment Programme ‘UK Central Plus’ (UKC+) sets out the city’s ambitious transport strategy for the next decade, which seeks to support economic growth by transforming the quality of transport infrastructure and services. The £620m programme is made up of a cocktail of funding sources, using WMCA Devolution Deal to provide match funding to enable Coventry to develop and deliver a strategic transport programme on an unprecedented scale and go further and faster in enabling economic growth, which is what the WMCA Strategic Economic Plan sets out to deliver. A key component of this strategy is Coventry Station Masterplan which aims to improve connectivity to UKC and HS2, boosting jobs and growth in the city centre. The current Grade-II listed railway station which has seen little change since it opened in 1962 is now a barrier to achieving this. The station has experienced unprecedented passenger growth over the last 10 years and is now beyond its design capacity, which is suppressing demand for travel and choking off current and future economic and jobs growth in the city. In May 2017 WMCA gave approval for the Coventry Station Masterplan element of the package to proceed directly to Full Business Case submission, recognising that the project was well developed and that elements of Coventry Station Masterplan Phase 1 were already in the course of being delivered Coventry Station Masterplan A comprehensive redevelopment of the station designed to ensure it is ‘HS2 ready’ and will be able to capitalise on the benefits that HS2 can bring, while helping the station meet the needs of an aspirational, growing city and make the most of the rapid growth in passenger numbers. The improvements at the station were developed as an outcome of the Coventry Rail Story, an economic led study of how rail can deliver growth in the city. The improvements also align with the West Midlands Movement for Growth Strategy and Midlands Connect Rail Strategy. To fully benefit from reconnecting the city by rail to cities in the East Midlands and beyond, as well as HS2, it is essential that the station has the capacity to handle the additional patronage this connectivity will generate and that it provides an appropriate gateway to an aspirational 21st century city. £39.4m funding from WMCA is sought to match fund the rest of the programme against £42.6m of other funding, all of which is already secure. The pedestrian underpass scheme Phase 1 is already complete, funded from Coventry and Warwickshire Local Enterprise Partnership (CWLEP) Local Growth Deal, therefore it is proposed WMCA match funding is to be utilised for the remainder of the programme to ensure the full economic opportunities are realised by connectivity to HS2

Funding Being Sought The funding requested in this proposal, and other sources of funding that will be directed to the project is summarised below:

Funding Source (£m) Status

CWLEP Local Growth Deal 25.1 Secured

Integrated Transport Block (incl LA cont.) 1.6 Secured

DfT/Network Rail 5.0 Secured

Prudential Borrowing 10.9 Secured

WMCA Devolution Deal 39.4* Not secured

Total 82.0

Table 4: Summary of Project Costs and Funding Being Sought *Note that £15m of the total Devolution Deal sum for Coventry Station Masterplan is allocated to the HS2 connectivity package, with the remaining £24.4m from Coventry’s UKC+ allocation. Coventry Station Master Plan has already secured a total of £42.6 million from a combination of CWLEP Local Growth Deal, TfWM Integrated Transport Block allocation, DfT funds and £10.9m prudential borrowing as detailed in the table 4. Rationale for Intervention Unlocking Growth The Midlands Connect Transport Strategy highlights how transport interventions can unlock growth in the region, where there is a growing body of evidence how investment in transport can drive economic growth both directly and indirectly. The Strategy seeks to maximise these effects by delivering investment that overcomes the barriers to growth through providing the efficient, reliable strategic road and rail networks with the capacity, connectivity and resilience to directly raise productivity and remove transport as a barrier to growth. The productivity gap in the West Midlands currently stands at 10%. The gap between the West Midlands and the rest of the UK is forecast to widen between now and 2030. The WMCA SEP attributes this to the large number of low value companies in low growth sectors, the low business birth and survival rates in some areas, and a comparatively high number and proportion of residents with low skills and no qualifications. To tackle this challenge key priority areas have been identified include improving road and rail infrastructure and bringing forward land for housing and employment. Some examples of successful employment sites which have come forward as a result of improvements to connectivity include the first phase of Friargate following completion of the bridge deck, along with expansion of Jaguar Land Rover at Whitley following installation of a new grade separated junction off the A444. Through intervention measures WMCA SEP is targeting to not only close the productivity gap by 2030, but actually increase the West Midlands productivity to 5% above national average. Enhanced connectivity with UKC and HS2 are necessary to maximise the economic benefits of agglomeration to support a dynamic and rapidly growing city. In 2004 Coventry’s population was under 300,000. It has grown steadily since to 345,000 in 2015 and is forecast to reach over 415,000 in the next 20 years. In the proposed next Local Plan period up to 2031 it is forecast that investment and development in Coventry will create 50,000 jobs, with a consequential growth in housing to meet the needs of a growing city. Coventry City Council has been very successful in obtaining funding and delivering schemes from a number of sources for investment in the city’s transport infrastructure, with £150m of improvements delivered over the last 5 years. However, in order to maximize the economic potential of the city and to take full advantage of HS2 and the proximity of UKC it is essential that strategic investment continues to support Coventry’s growth aspirations and cross boundary transport schemes. The Coventry Station Masterplan is critical to this process and thus the rationale for intervention is that over the next 10 years, huge economic opportunities will be presented to Coventry by improving rail links, but considerable investment in Coventry Railway Station is required for the city to realise the full benefits. HS2 will change the face of rail in the West Midlands and nationally; Coventry must develop its links with the HS2 interchange and UK Central which will be a focal point for circa 70,000 new jobs and new investment, whilst at the same time maintaining its economically important link to London. There are also plans to strengthen the north-south rail link to connect the city to Leicester, Nottingham and North East England as part of Midlands Connect. Coventry Railway Station was extensively re-built in the 1960s as part of electrification of the West Coast Main Line. The innovative light, open and airy design has been recognised via Grade II listing, and it has accommodated significant growth in passenger footfall, more than doubling in the last 10 years.

However, the station is now tired and at capacity, with limited passenger facilities, poor integration with other forms of transport and restricted in its rail capacity for growth. The station does not serve as a good gateway for Coventry and does not generate as much commercial benefit to the City as should be possible given the large growth in passenger numbers. Recent Demand Growth Usage of Coventry Railway Station has trebled since 1997-98 and has more than doubled in the last 10 years, with 22.7% growth between 2013-2016 (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Passenger Growth at Coventry Railway Station (Millions of Passenger Journeys per Annum) Source: ORR and SLC Rail In terms of passenger growth, Coventry is one of the fastest growing stations in the West Midlands (see table 2), and is one of the fastest growing stations in the UK.

Growth 1998/2008 2008/2009 2009/2012 2012/2016 1998/2016 Coventry 44.0% 48.7% 20.7% 22.7% 227.9% Wolverhampton 35.8% 68.1% -0.4% 12.8% 156.7% Birmingham New St 48.9% 48.1% 24.0% 21.8% 242.2% Birmingham International 38.2% 60.0% 5.5% 27.6% 209.8% Leicester 56.2% 3.3% -4.6% 9.4% 65.0% Nottingham 49.7% 1.7% 7.7% 11.6% 83.0% Solihull 72.2% 124.6% -4.1% 17.9% 376.7% Warwick Parkway 548.5% 12.7% -0.9% 8.5% 834.5% Leamington Spa 89.1% 26.2% 14.0% 16.0% 228.6% Table 5: Midlands Station Passenger Growth 1997-2016, based on trips per annum. Source: ORR and SLC Rail Forecast Demand Growth The demand growth forecasts used in this business case are based on the Coventry Station Masterplan report produced in March 2014 but rebased in line with actual rail patronage figures for 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16. The annual rate of growth in trips using Coventry station in these years has been exceptional as can be seen from table 3 below:

Year Annual Rail trips Equivalent daily trips % increase on to/from Coventry previous year

2012/13 5,640,652 17,572

2013/14 5,961,070 18,570 5.7%

2014/15 6,252,888 19,479 4.9%

2015/16 6,921,432 21,562 10.7%

Change from 1,280,780 3,990 22.7% 2012/13 Table 6: Recent Coventry Station demand growth. Source: Office of Rail and Road annual report Actual station patronage has grown by 22.7% in 3 years compared to the original Coventry Masterplan report forecast of 10.4% over the same period accelerating the rate at which demand for travel is suppressed as a result of station capacity. Figure 3 below illustrates the historic and forecast demand growth at the station from 1997 to 2043. The forecast from 2012/13 has been adjusted to take account of the actual patronage results for the station between 2012/13 and 2015/16.

Coventry Station - Historic and Forecast Daiiy Trips

60,000

50,000 51,669 48,689 45,881 40,000 42,240 38,862 35,485 30,000 31,420 28,150 20,000 24,850 21,562 17,572 14,977 10,000 8,956 6,575 7,027 7,351 0

Figure 3: Historic and Forecast Passenger Numbers per Day at Coventry Railway Station Source: ORR Station Usage data to 2015/16 and forecast forward using WSP Coventry Station Masterplan Report 2014 updated with latest ORR Station Usage data

The updated growth data now means that the total growth between 2012 and 2043 is 194% compared to the 123% forecast in the 2013 Coventry Rail Story study. The revised forecast has taken into account the actual growth rates of 22.7% for 2012/13 to 2015/16 and forecast forward based on known service changes and the benefits of the Coventry Masterplan project. Given the historic and recent growth trends observed at Coventry station which has seen usage triple in the fifteen years since 2000/01, the forward forecast of less than doubling of usage in the next fifteen years from 2015/16 to 2030/31 is considered to be prudent. This is especially so in the light of a forecast population growth of an additional 61,000 residents from 2015 to 2031 (Office for National Statistics and Coventry Local Plan) and 48,000 new jobs by 2031 (Coventry Local Plan). The 2014 Coventry Rail Story report demonstrated that overcrowding was already evident on platforms, the single footbridge and staircases, particularly in the morning and evening peaks when around 2,000 people use the station each hour. By 2043 peak hour usage is forecast to reach nearly 4,500 per hour, compared with 7,000 per day in 2001, as per figure 2. The impact of this projected growth on the station is illustrated in Figure 4 which demonstrates that demand already exceeds Network Rail crowding standards for the staircase to platforms 2, 3 and 4 and will exceed Network Rail crowding standards for the main access point from the concourse to platform 1 by 2019. It can be seen, therefore, that demand for travel to and from the station is already starting to be suppressed and the rate of suppression will rapidly grow in a ‘do nothing’ scenario creating a significant barrier to Coventry’s economic growth.

Figure 4: Projected Hourly demand versus Station Capacity Source: Coventry Station Upgrade Economic Appraisal, WSP May 2014

The impact of not improving capacity at Coventry Station is to progressively suppress demand for travel. This impact has been modelled by comparing passenger demand in an unconstrained growth situation assuming additional capacity is provided and a constrained ‘do nothing’ growth situation where demand starts to be suppressed at the point where demand exceeds the crowding standards.

In practice demand will not simply cease to grow at the point where crowding exceeds standards but instead will grow at a lower rate. The impact will also be felt initially in the morning and evening peak where demand is greatest but will increasingly be felt in the inter-peak period as demand grows over the years. Both the unconstrained and constrained growth projections include the impact of known and forecast train service changes and the impact of HS2 based on the assumptions included in the Coventry Rail Story published in September 2013 and the subsequent Coventry Station Upgrade Economic Appraisal published by WSP in May 2014. The comparison between the ‘do nothing’ and CSMP options is illustrated in Figure 5 below:

Coventry Station - Annual Station Usage - Capacity Led Demand Suppression 18,000,000

17,000,000

16,000,000

15,000,000

14,000,000

13,000,000

12,000,000 Annual Growth Unconstrained

11,000,000 Annual Growth Do Nothing AnnualJourneys 10,000,000

9,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

2029 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

Figure 5: Impact of demand suppression at Coventry station Source: WSP Economic Appraisal May 2014 and SYSTRA update Sep 2017 It can be seen that the impact of not addressing the capacity constraints at Coventry station is a loss of just over 1m journeys per annum in 2037 and 1.2m by 2043 with and a corresponding loss of economic benefits to Coventry and the West Midland as a whole. It should be noted that in the economic appraisal the growth is assumed to be zero from 2037 to reflect Web TAG guidelines that demand should be capped in economic appraisals after 20 years. The current modelling work has confirmed that the CSMP option accommodates the unconstrained demand growth projections for the station beyond [2043]. The Friargate office-led development, which is immediately adjacent to the rail station, has the potential to provide employment for up to 15,000 people as well as providing 433 new homes. The recently announced Coventry City Centre South development along with the new leisure destination are also in close proximity to the Station will create further demand with an effective shift of the city’s retail and leisure core south towards the railway station. Coventry needs a fit

for purpose station to promote and enable development and the opportunities provided by HS2. The city should also benefit from a wider range of destinations following the release of capacity once HS2 is open. In addition to the future demand estimated above, Coventry Station will soon be undergoing expansion to include a new bay platform to enable an enhanced train service to Nuneaton (NUCKLE Phase 1.2). The new platform will be located in a disused siding on the other side of the Warwick Road from the existing station building. Station usage is expected to continue to rise as demand for rail travel increases, with particular growth expected as a result of NUCKLE which is expected to generate an additional 195,000 journeys at the station per year. This is an important service to enable better access to employment opportunities from more deprived areas to the north of Coventry. The Station Masterplan will deliver a new bus interchange, which will provide opportunity for improved cross city connectivity by bus, connecting areas of deprivation in the north of the city with jobs around Friargate and access to jobs in UKC. Improving access to employment opportunities will support agglomeration benefits that are key to tackling the productivity gap. There is therefore a strong rationale for public investment in the station, and in 2014 a masterplan document was drawn up to guide investment in the station with a ten-point plan:

Figure 6: Ten Point Vision for Coventry Railway Station Source: Coventry Station Masterplan Report, March 2014 Opportunities The initial ‘Coventry Rail Story’ report, produced in September 2013, analysed the current market for rail in Coventry and identified the key committed and potential rail service interventions that will drive economic growth in the city. There are four principal committed or potential rail projects that impact on demand for rail travel in Coventry. All of these present opportunities for the city, but only if the station and access to the station can be improved in terms of capacity and quality: (1) The delivery of HS2 from 2026 provides opportunities for major recasts of West Coast Main Line, Cross Country, regional and local services, unlocking train service capacity for further significant capacity growth.

• Freeing capacity on the route between Coventry and Birmingham enables the number of trains between Coventry and Birmingham to increase from 7 trains per hour to 9 trains per hour. This is key because 40% of trips using Coventry station are to/from Birmingham and the West Midlands and the UK Central corridor will be a major economic growth area. • Coventry Station will be a principal access point for rail passengers from the Coventry and Warwickshire Region travelling to UK Central to use HS2 - both southbound in Phase 1 and

particularly northbound in Phase 2. The Masterplan supports the enhancement of Coventry Station to be ready for HS2. • Although the number of current Coventry-London Euston fast services may reduce from 3 trains per hour to 2 trains per hour from 2026 the capacity released by HS2 provides the potential to improve journey times to/from London and also provide a range of new northbound destinations from Coventry to the north-west of England and Scotland.

(2) NUCKLE - NUneaton-Coventry-Kenilworth-LEamington Spa: • NUCKLE 1 provides 2 new local stations between Coventry and Nuneaton and an enhanced frequency of trains together with a new 5th platform at Coventry Station. This is a committed scheme to be delivered in two packages. The first package (NUCKLE 1,1) is complete, following the opening of stations at Ricoh Arena and Bermuda Park in January 2016. The new 5th platform at Coventry Station and associated rail infrastructure (NUCKLE 1.2) is included in the Coventry Station Masterplan project and the provision of the more frequent service is now committed within the new West Midlands franchise. • NUCKLE 2 will provide a new station at Kenilworth. This is a committed scheme and is on site, funded by DfT and Warwickshire County Council. A new hourly local service between Coventry and Leamington is committed within the new West Midlands franchise and will commence once the new station is completed. • NUCKLE 3 addresses connectivity between Coventry, Nuneaton and Leicester, with a prospective new crossing across the West Coast Main Line at Nuneaton. This phase is in development stage only and forms part of the Midlands Connect Emerging Transport Strategy.

(3) There is potential to divert the Reading-Newcastle Cross Country service from the Solihull route to run via Coventry. This will transform Coventry’s connectivity, supplementing the existing Southampton-Coventry- Manchester service to offer a half-hourly frequency to Oxford and Reading in advance of DfT’s committed Reading-Heathrow Airport Western Access Rail Link, as well an hourly direct service to Derby, Sheffield and North East England. In addition the Midlands Rail hub project, led by Midlands Connect is seeking to create 10 more train paths into New Street Station which could benefit the Coventry line.

(4) National Stations Improvement Plan (NSIP) works: Virgin Trains are the current holder of the franchise at Coventry Station, and are delivering £2.4M improvements to the existing station facilities. The improvements include a number of short and medium term plans that will have interfaces with the master plan scheme. The Station Master Plan team and Virgin have been working together to ensure that the works are compatible. There are also opportunities to bring forward the Friargate development as a result of the extensive new highway infrastructure which is required to be delivered as part of the Station Masterplan. The new roads will closely align with the Friargate Masterplan, which was granted outline planning permission in 2011. The new infrastructure will unlock the western extent of the Friargate Masterplan, creating the opportunity to bring forward up to 433 new homes, offices and a hotel, therefore this element of the scheme is known locally as ‘Friargate West’. The new highway will be designed to accommodate a future very light rail route, which will come forward as a separate bid to WMCA.

Project Benefits The CSMP project will deliver a range of benefits: • Improve connectivity to UKC and HS2; • Creation of a fitting gateway to an aspirational 21st century city; • Better access to employment opportunities, helping to address the productivity gap; • Improved access to the Friargate development and bring forward land for development to create new jobs and homes; • Increased capacity of the railway station to meet the forecast passenger demand;

• Improved pedestrian connectivity between the railway station, Friargate development and the city centre; • Better multi-modal access to the railway station – including bus, cycle, walk and car; • Enable more frequent rail services between Coventry and Nuneaton which are now committed in the new West Midlands franchise; • Improvements to network capacity on Warwick Road, a key arterial gateway into the city from the south of the city.

Economic Appraisal Results The Central Case business case results for the Masterplan project are provided in Table 4 below. These results include the following key assumptions: • The latest Capex and Opex costs including Optimism Bias assumptions. • Wider economic benefits of the project. • The most recent programme phasing and cashflow assumptions. • The most recent QRA results for the project (undertaken in September 2017). • Updated rail industry passenger revenue results to March 2016. • Revenue forecasts including the impact of HS2 from 2026/27 and other known changes London demand is shown as both unconstrained and capped to illustrate that even if there was a significant diversion of trips to use the HS2 station at Birmingham Interchange rather than using Coventry Station the benefits still demonstrate a positive BCR. The unconstrained does assume some transfer to HS2 post 2026/27 arising from the fact that the 3 current fast London services per hour reduce to two per hour and the third slot is taken by a slower semi-fast service.

2010 Prices and Values £m's Unconstrained London Capped London Benefits Noise £114,204 £87,359 Local Air Quality £96,286 £73,653 Greenhouse Gases £862,315 £659,623 Accidents £1,626,857 £1,244,454 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) £20,396,400 £19,793,688 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) £9,340,961 £9,096,233 Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers £8,410,964 £7,907,912 Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -£4,680,423 -£3,580,261 Farebox Revenue £70,809,095 £54,510,669.63 Parking Revenue £340,592 £319,279.59 Retail Revenue £7,900,344 £7,900,344.44 Operating Cost -£25,213,789 -£25,213,789 Grant Subsidy -£53,836,243 -£37,516,505 PVB £45,528,409 £42,443,184 Costs Payment Capital £70,469,414 £70,469,414.15 Grant Subsidy -£53,836,243.28 -£37,516,505.15 PVC £16,633,170.87 £32,952,909.00 NPV £28,895,238.26 £9,490,274.86 BCR 2.74 1.29 Table 7: Coventry Station Masterplan Economic Appraisal Central Case

The non-monetary quantitative benefits of the CSMP project are set out in further detail below: The benefits of enhancing the station and adjacent highway works are outlined below. The benefits will begin to be realised on completion of the scheme in 2021, and will enable the full benefits to be realised up to 2043 and beyond, which delivers the forecast capacity and associated commercial and transport user benefits.

(1) Commercial/Financial benefits of passenger growth There are three areas where commercial benefits will be realised by the station enhancement scheme: - Suppressed rail ticket revenue – the additional capacity, enhanced facilities and improved access will enable growth in passenger numbers to continue which will be measured via ORR annual surveys; - Suppressed car parking ticket revenue - a commercial model has been developed on this basis to demonstrate the benefits of provision of the new car park facility which is the basis for a commercial deal with the DfT to enable Coventry City Council to prudentially borrow £10.9m to deliver the scheme against future revenue, the success of which will be measured by revenue generated; - Commercial opportunities at the station through the provision of retail/cafes within the station site, the success of which will be measured by occupation and revenue generated.

(2) Transport user benefits An assessment has been made of the type of benefits that would be sought in accordance with a WeBTaG compliant appraisal process. The benefits will be felt by: - Bus users - Rail users - Pedestrians - Drivers – driving time impacts for both existing and suppressed station users - Drivers – walking time impacts - Drivers – fuel costs for both existing and suppressed station users - Cyclists - Highways decongestion benefits

There will be some potential short term dis-benefits to the above users during construction of the scheme, where temporary traffic management, pedestrian diversion routes and parking facilities may be affected. This will be managed through working with the Station Facility Owner and early contractor involvement to ensure disruption is kept to a minimum as not to detract from passengers using Coventry Station.

Surveys will be undertaken before and after the works focussed on types of journeys made to and from the station to measure modal shift, along with vehicle speeds and counts.

(3) Friargate development The scheme will deliver new highways on the alignment of the Friargate Masterplan. This will unlock the development plots to enable 60,232m2 of commercial floor space, along with 433 new homes Coventry City Centre wider regeneration Following extensive damage during the Second World War, reconstruction of the city centre began in the late 1940s following City Architect Donald Gibson’s redevelopment Master Plan. This included numerous revolutionary town planning concepts that were widely copied elsewhere including pedestrianised shopping streets, areas zoned by their function and a Ring Road. Much of the Gibson Master Plan can still be seen today, despite some unfortunate later additions which have spoilt its clarity. Several of the post-war buildings including the railway station, the swimming pool and the market are now listed for their historic and architectural interest. Since the 1960s there has been a lack of significant investment within many areas of the city centre and a clearly identifiable and deliverable plan as to how the centre should develop in a way that is respectful of its heritage. The Coventry Station Masterplan is an integral part of the overall plans for city centre regeneration. It complements other projects underway such as the Friargate Masterplan and City Centre South as can be seen in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Coventry City Centre Regeneration Programme Location Plan The schemes demonstrate a growing ambition to reinvigorate and reinstate the city centre as a destination for a range of activities; collectively transforming Coventry City Centre as a better place to work, live, visit and invest. The Coventry Station Masterplan is strategically important as it is adjacent to the Friargate Masterplan and is in close proximity to the City Centre South retail led regeneration scheme. The infrastructure created as part of the Coventry Station Masterplan will directly benefit the Friargate business district, unlocking development land to develop housing, a hotel and new homes. Coventry City Council have already delivered infrastructure which unlocked the first phase of the Friargate Masterplan, thorugh a £17m new bridge deck which has improved connectivity between the railway station and city centre via a an attractive boulevard and acted as a catalyst for development of the first office building. The Friargate Masterplan will increase employment within the city centre and consequently boost spending power across the city, particularly because of the scheme’s potential to attract new employers to Coventry that bring high-skilled jobs with higher pay. In return, the Friargate Masterplan’s retail and leisure offer will support the development of the office district by making the surroundings more attractive to potential employers and private investors with the city benefiting from an increased rates base. A report by SQW in 2010 identified the merits of regenerating the city centre with the main schemes identified as City Centre South and Friargate Business District. These schemes are considered by SQW to mutually support each other and together a combined GVA boost of £6.4bn was forecast. Other projects currently in progress or recently completed in Coventry include : • The transformation of Cathedral Lanes to a high quality leisure and restaurant destination. The first phase of which is already complete and will strengthen the retail and leisure offering of the Coventry City Centre transformation as a whole. Phase 2 is estimated to commence at the start of 2018; • The development of a new Waterpark at the £37m City Centre Destination Facility with a completion date of early 2019 will also add to the city centre offering; • The £125m Coventry University Research and Innovation Zone land deal, which completed in late 2016; and • Development of the £57m Coventry Very Light Rail system, the pilot route will connect directly to the transport interchange hub at the railway station.

Large scale improvements to the public realm connecting all these locations together is already underway. In addition to this, early in 2017 the Council introduced free public Wi-Fi within the city centre, available to residents, visitors, tourists and shoppers which is improving the city centre experience. Over £35m of public realm improvements have been delivered in the city centre over the last 5 years. Public realm works, delivered as part of Phase 2 of the Coventry Station Masterplan add significant value to the earlier rounds of improvements by improving the links between key strategic sites in the city centre. As a result, by enhancing Coventry city centre’s image through high quality public realm improvements, the project will help to instil further confidence from the private sector to invest, add value to the flagship City Centre South and Friargate schemes, bring forward development of other underused city centre sites. Therefore, upfront investment could potentially help the job creation impacts from the development sites materialise earlier than originally anticipated, which could then potentially have the impact of helping to reduce the city’s overall unemployment rate. These improvements will help improve Coventry’s attractiveness as a tourist destination and also boost the city’s bid for City of Culture 2021, which if successful would result in a significant boost to the local and regional economy. Timescales The table below shows the current anticipated completion dates for key elements of the project: CSMP Key Milestone Planned Completion Planning Application December 2017 Finalise Land Acquisition (CPO process) Spring 2019 NUCKLE Phase 1.2 May 2019 Footbridge and Canopies Summer 2019 Highways Phased delivery Spring 2019 – End 2020 New Station Building End 2020 Multi-storey Car Park End 2020 Bus Interchange Summer 2021 Table 8: Coventry Station Masterplan Timescales Many of the benefits of the schemes will be immediately realised in terms of transport improvements. Based on current passenger growth rates Coventry Railway Station will be at full capacity as of 2019. The current programme for the scheme targets completion of the new footbridge and canopies by early 2019 which will immediately relieve capacity issues. Commencement of the new station building and car park will follow in 2019, along with highway works and the bus interchange, targeting completion in 2021. The new infrastructure will support future growth forecast up to 2043. The NUCKLE bay platform will be constructed from 2018 and opened spring 2019. The City Council has worked with West Midlands Rail to ensure that that Abellio (the operator of the new West Midlands Trains franchise from December 2017), will provide additional services between Coventry and Nuneaton on completion of the bay platform and associated track and signal works. The City Council is working closely with TfWM and bus operators to ensure that when the new bus interchange opens there is flexibility to enhance existing services connecting to the railway station, with a view to increase cross city services and improve bus access to key employment sites.

People, Place and Business The West Midlands Combined Authority Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) sets out eight priority areas that will be delivered by engaging three different channels – people, place and business. The Coventry Station Masterplan project is being planned and designed in order to meet the needs of these different channels, based on an evidence-based understanding of the various challenges. The response below sets out the contribution of the project to the various SEP priorities. The answer to this question considers how the project is being developed in order to meet the needs of the three channels.

Place First and foremost the project is focussed on place – using improved transport infrastructure and services to bring together people and businesses. The strategic vision is to develop Coventry city centre and the Friargate area as a thriving place where people can live in high quality homes, access high quality jobs and spend their leisure time.

Place People Developing the city Business centre as an Meeting the lifestyle integrated and needs of people who Enabling office-based thriving place to live, live in the city centre, work and play by businesses and through enabling retailers to locate in improving transport greater multi-modal connectivity a thriving city centre mobility location which has excellent multi- modal connections

Figure 8: Strategic Vision for Place, People and Business The city centre is being transformed from an ageing car-dominated environment to an attractive and thriving modern 21st century place. In order to deliver this vision a City Centre Area Action Plan (AAP) has been drawn up with a range of specific objectives to increase the numbers of houses, businesses and shops:

Objective Key Priorities and Targets

Jobs A range of key employment initiatives being promoted within the city centre. The most important of these is the new Friargate business quarter situated around Coventry Railway Station, which already has planning consent for 185,000 square metres of new grade A office space. Preparatory works are now underway to deliver the first of 14 new office buildings, with further premises providing new, complementary retail and leisure facilities, generating up to 15,000 new jobs. This development will see this part of the city centre become the focal point for new office provision and the primary location for new office investment and job creation.

Houses The AAP will continue to encourage the development of more homes within the city centre. Indeed the Draft SHLAA has identified potential opportunities for in excess of 3,000 homes within the area. It is important though to ensure an adequate balance is made between providing enough homes for the city’s student population as well as appropriate accommodation for other elements of the city’s population, including: families, young professionals and older people.

Retail The Shopping and Centres study (2014) recommends the provision of around 37,600 square metres of gross new floor space in the city centre up to 2031, which covers a range of retail needs. At least 10,000 square metres will be provided within the City Centre South development.

Leisure The Shopping and Centre Study suggests there is potential for Coventry city to increase its market share of cinema trips and therefore support the provision of a new cinema.

There is also expected to be sufficient capacity to support two new health and fitness clubs over the plan period, of which at least one should be situated within the city centre.

Table 9: Coventry City Centre Area Action Plan Source: Coventry City Centre Area Action Plan, February 2015 Delivery of these objectives means that new and improved transport infrastructure and services delivered by the project will provide access to offices, houses, shops and leisure facilities. The redevelopment of Coventry’s city centre therefore seeks to enhance the vitality and viability of the city as a whole and flagship developments such as Friargate, City Centre South and the new waterpark aim to act as a catalyst for further high quality development. Such schemes will help build upon the city centre’s strengths and help combat its weaknesses. People As highlighted above, it is essential that a place-based approach is supported by enabling people to live and develop their lives around a greater range of housing, employment, retail and leisure opportunities. All people should be able to use the transport system – irrespective of factors such as age, income, gender, racial origin or religious belief. Furthermore, all people should be able to use the full range of transport modes and be strongly encouraged to use healthy and environmentally sustainable options where possible. In practice, the project will provide new transport capacity to meet people’s needs that will: • Enable safer and more efficient journeys to a wider range of destinations, thereby increasing the range of education and employment opportunities both within the city centre and the wider Coventry, Warwickshire and West Midlands areas; • Improvements to bus and rail services, including increasing the frequency of rail services between Coventry and Nuneaton and creating a new bus hub to encourage more cross city journeys will provide greater connectivity to employment opportunities from more deprived parts of Coventry and Warwickshire; • Provide new routes for all modes of transport – private motor vehicle, public transport, walking and cycling; and • Enable existing routes that are relieved of traffic to be re-designed to provide a more efficient and safer environment for users of public transport and non-motorised modes of travel. Business The project will also address the needs of business for efficient, reliable, safe and resilient transport links for: • Enabling a wide range of potential employees to access job opportunities; • Fostering greater business to business collaboration (economic agglomeration) by reducing the effective distance between various locations within the city centre and the wider West Midlands; • Increasing the number of opportunities for smaller and medium sized businesses (in particular) to access supply chain opportunities with the larger firms. Reducing overall costs of transport to businesses, and enabling greater levels of profit to be generated and re-invested for future growth plans.

Section C2: Strategic Economic Plan

Please refer to the Initial Proposal Qs 5-7 for Strategic Economic Plan

Figure 9: Area Based Economic Relationships (CWLEP, 2016)

WMCA SEP Priority Programme Areas Figure 8 illustrates the geographic links between the economic relationships from the Midlands Engine, WMCA to CWLEP. This project supports the WMCA SEP priority areas for HS2 Growth, Housing and Exploiting the Economic Geography. This is strategically linked to the Midlands Engine and CWLEP SEP objectives, which are referred to below as further supporting evidence. (1) HS2 Growth: maximising the benefits of the largest infrastructure project in Europe The CSMP project strongly supports the HS2 Growth priority programme area, because it enables Coventry railway station to become a modern multi-modal interchange that is integrated strongly with economic development and regeneration proposals, both at Friargate and the wider city centre. The West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) Strategic Economic Plan (page 17) states that: “HS2 will further boost the West Midlands’ already strong connectivity advantages; the area is already less than an hour from London by train. The UK Central Growth Corridor from Birmingham through Solihull to Coventry is supporting successful growth and the increasing role of Birmingham Airport as an international gateway.” Coventry Railway Station will provide the main public transport access point to the HS2 network for the city itself and the wider hinterland of Warwickshire. The connection is proposed to be via the West Coast Main Line from Coventry Station to Birmingham International station, and then (as set out in the High Speed 2 Connectivity Package) via a “people mover” fixed link to the new HS2 station at UK Central. The additional demand for travel to the new HS2 station from Coventry will partly be from people who wish to use HS2 to travel to London and (in phase 2) to destinations in the north of England. However, UK Central will become a major employment destination in its own right with tens of thousands of new jobs or safeguarded jobs. Coventry station will therefore be an important means of accessing these job opportunities at UK Central. The West Midlands Transport Strategy Movement for Growth states that strong growth is continuing in the regional and inter-city markets, with the need for investment in more / longer trains and additional infrastructure capacity. HS2 will provide a massive opportunity to re-configure the existing West Coast Main Line to provide a wider range of more local

and regional services. This was explored in detail in the ‘Coventry Rail Story’ report in late 2013 which identified the following potential enhancements: • Greater frequencies for Canley and Tile Hill stations as part of increasing the number of services between Coventry and Birmingham from 7 to 9 trains per hour. • An additional Cross Country service each hour providing increased frequency between Coventry and Leamington Spa, Oxford, Reading and the south coast and new direct journey opportunities to Derby Sheffield and the north- east; • Potential for connections from Coventry to Heathrow Airport via the new Heathrow Western Access; • More frequent regional services south towards Rugby, Northampton and Milton Keynes; • Through services on the NUCKLE line from Leamington Spa to Nuneaton via Coventry – including a new station in the south of the city as part of the Coventry South package; • Extension of NUCKLE services from Nuneaton to Leicester and potentially other East Midlands destinations including Nottingham and cities in the North East (via a new connection from the West Coast Mainline); and • Direct service from Leamington Spa / Kenilworth to Birmingham International / UK Central via Coventry. These services will connect people with jobs, and also enable greater levels of business travel to be undertaken by rail. This is particularly the case at Friargate where up to 15,000 jobs will be created – therefore providing further local commuting demand to the railway station.

(2) Housing: action to accelerate the delivery of current housing plan and enable an increase in the level of house building to support the level of growth envisaged in this SEP. There is increasing evidence of the need for more housing and the Governments desire to increase the availability of housing to buy. Each authority has had to undertake a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to identify the need for housing and employment. The current housing requirements for Coventry with its growth in jobs and attractiveness, along with its population make up is assessed as needing 42,400 dwellings. Providing the infrastructure to unlock the Friargate development site will enable 433 high quality new dwellings to be brought forward in a prime city centre brownfield location. The quality of the dwellings is important to attract professionals to Coventry. There is a distinct lack of housing for young professionals in the city and to maximise local GVA it is important to create a city where professionals can both live and work.

(3) Exploiting the economic geography: making the most of the scale and diversity of the West Midlands geography to enable economic growth and community wellbeing. The SEP sets out how the economic geography of the West Midlands – based around the three Gateway / business hub cities of Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Coventry and their wider hinterlands – is a fundamental enabler of growth. The role of transport connectivity in developing this economic geography is vital, and the SEP outlines two key “transport propositions”: • Supporting the key economic links between the wider hinterland and the core of the conurbation; and • Maximising the economic potential of UK Central, reinforcing the role of the three cities as gateways to the West Midlands – including links between Coventry and UK Central. The CSMP project strongly supports both of these transport propositions by providing a high capacity multi-modal interchange which will act as an attractive gateway to the regenerated city centre. A mix of fast and stopping services will provide access from all directions within the Coventry travel to work hinterland – and future phases of the NUCKLE project will support better access from both north and south Warwickshire. Furthermore, Coventry station will provide access to fast / frequent rail services to UK Central – including Birmingham International Airport, the HS2 station and wider development proposed as part of the Master Plan. The Friargate West development will significantly increase the range of employment opportunities in the city centre, and is located in an area that is highly accessible for public transport both within Coventry and the wider hinterland.

Improved connectivity between the south of Coventry and UK Central is the primary objective of the project, and has already been described in detail in the response to other questions.

Further Supporting Evidence The West Midlands Combined Authority published a strategic advice paper in September 2015 “Using infrastructure to reinforce housing and job site delivery” which reinforces the importance of how infrastructure investment can help bring forward housing and job sites and support growth balance in the region. The report identifies that by intelligently coordinating infrastructure investment and land use planning we can maximise bang for our buck, which these schemes very much fits into. This very much fits into the Central Government agenda for creation of the “Midlands Engine” to position the Midlands as a major UK and European gateway to unlock the region’s potential and support growth across every sector. The Midlands Engine for Growth Prospectus (2015) recognises that “Connectivity across the Midlands is essential for supporting and attracting businesses as well as highly skilled workers”. Through Midlands Connect, this vision is being delivered via the development of a long term transport investment strategy, where early investment in schemes to improve road and rail such as this project will help achieve the ambitious aspirations the Midlands Engine sets out.

Coventry & Warwickshire Strategic Economic Plan In May 2013, the Centre for Cities prepared a report called “Driving Growth” which aimed to look at the most important factors in achieving CWLEP’s aim of supporting innovation and growth in local businesses. One of the report’s key recommendations is: “…for CWLEP and local partners to effectively support business innovation and growth in Coventry and Warwickshire they should… continue to prioritise funding for improvements to Coventry city centre, alongside improvements to north-south transport connections.” As well as the obvious large scale investment in Coventry city centre that Friargate represents, it is also an important travel hub for north-south travel. The new platform to be built at Coventry station as part of NUCKLE Phase 1.2 rail project will enable a much improved rail service north to Nuneaton Two new stations at the Ricoh Arena and Bermuda Park have already been built are in use as part of NUCKLE Phase 1.1. NUCKLE Phase 2 is now underway with a new station in the course of construction at Kenilworth further strengthening the north-south connection. To remove the productivity gap the local economy needs to grow by 3.3% per annum up to 2030. To tackle the productivity gap the SEP identifies key factors to be addressed, which includes The CW SEP (2016) identifies that to remove the productivity gap the local economy needs to grow by 3.3% per annum up to 2030. This will be tackled by ‘increasing agglomeration effects within the local economy by improving connectivity both within and between the economic centres within Coventry and Warwickshire, and ensuring stronger connections across the wider Midlands area as part of Midlands Connect’. There is also a need to address the inequality in economic performance within Coventry and Warwickshire and the underlying factors which further contribute towards the productivity gap, which include Coventry, Nuneaton and Bedworth having low job density levels, along with high unemployment rates. This project will help to close the productivity gap through delivering some of the SEP’s key objectives which include unlocking growth potential through improved rail connectivity and unlocking of new employment and housing sites. CWLEP recognises the importance of a successful Coventry city centre to the sub-region as a whole. The CWLEP strategy draws some of its evidence and priorities from the Coventry and Warwickshire Sub-Regional Economic Strategy (March 2010). Priority Action 9, Coventry city centre sets out "…the importance of Coventry punching its weight economically, socially and culturally for the whole sub region…supporting this major redevelopment, and ensuring all parts of the sub- region benefit." This project will act as enabler for a major redevelopment of the city centre which will be crucial to helping the city to “punch its weight” in line with the aims of the strategy. The Friargate development is also identified as a key enabler for growth in the Coventry and Warwickshire Strategic Economic Plan (SEP). The Office for National Statistics recognises Coventry as the fastest growing city outside Greater London with continuing job growth and two successful universities. The Local Plan responds to this growth and the policies and proposals within it to provide a blueprint to support the Council’s ambitious vision. It highlights the importance of the Council’s role in terms of investing in infrastructure to facilitate development and growth.

The CW SEP identifies the City of Coventry as a major urban area with significant capacity for growth and regeneration. A key objective of the SEP is “Unlocking Growth Potential”. The SEP identifies that economic growth and competitiveness depend upon having the right infrastructure. The “Jobs-Led Spatial Plan” provides an overarching framework for growth and supports infrastructure projects which are designed to stimulate and accelerate business investment around identified priority employment sites and enhance transport connectivity. Friargate is one of the employment sites identified. The SEP identifies that specific investment in capital infrastructure is central to both local economic growth and productivity. Investment is to be prioritised to improve roads, public transport (including north-south rail and the redevelopment of Coventry Station) to enable residents to access new and existing employment opportunities in the city centre. Alongside transport, CWLEP is seeking capital investment in quality employment sites to increase the level of grow on space for business. CWLEP recognises that Coventry and Warwickshire needs significant numbers of new homes by 2031 in order to support population growth, demographic change and maintain the jobs-housing balance. CWLEP fully endorse that a higher level of housing provision should be targeted, and are working with local authorities to identify future investment priorities, freedoms and flexibilities to support future housing growth. The SEP also priorities investment in the strategic transport corridor between the CWLEP’s two universities; Coventry University and the University of Warwick which this project will help address, particularly through improved public transport links and potentially unlocking Warwick Road to enable rapid transit between the city centre and campuses. Both universities are major employment sites and are renowned to their innovative and entrepreneurial focus and linkage with business.

Addressing WMCA SEP Growth Objectives Economic Impact Economic Growth - To improve GVA for the region in line with the UK Average The project has a clear aim to improve the economic performance of Coventry city centre and wider city through transport and public realm improvements that will assist with: • Increasing agglomeration effects within the local economy to close the productivity gap; • The creation of high value office-based employment opportunities, clustered around the railway station and therefore enabling easy access from a wide hinterland; • Improving the retail offer and consumer spending in the city, whilst enabling people to walk through an attractive and stimulating environment; • Linking various sectors of the city centre with both the railway station and each other, in order to enable people to explore peripheral and currently under-utilised areas; • Boosting levels of tourism - both for day time leisure / cultural attractions as well as the night time economy; • Increasing the level of residential accommodation in the city, especially for younger professionals who have a greater level of disposable income. • Friargate business district will boost the numbers employed (and thus spending power) in the city centre, particularly because of the highly skilled highly paid jobs that the development aims to attract. A report by SQW in 2010 identified the merits of regenerating the city centre with the main schemes being City Centre South and Friargate Business District to mutually support each other and forecast a combined GVA boost of £6.4 billion. Increased employment rate in target growth sectors • The city centre office developments will become a focus for financial / professional services operations and will also aim to attract a wider variety of headquarters location; • In addition, the University Technology Park will become an expanded focus of Research & Development (R&D); and • All of these developments need to be integrated with sustainable transport infrastructure.

Infrastructure - improve the quantity of high quality, readily available development sites; turning brownfield sites to high quality locations that meet our housing and business needs • Aside from direct transport benefits, all components of the project directly enable development by increasing access to brownfield sites; and • Proposed public realm improvements will deliver a higher quality environment in the city centre which will increase attractiveness for potential employees (and their employers) and people looking to live in or near the city centre; • The Station Masterplan associated highways infrastructure will unlock brownfield land which has outline planning permission for 433 new houses. Accessibility - To improve the connectivity of people and business to jobs and markets • Improvements to all modes of transport connectivity and capacity – including by rail, public transport, cycling and walking – will increase the overall size of labour markets and give employers a wider choice of potential employees. Fiscal Impact Income & Expenditure – We will be a net contributor to the UK exchequer, no longer a public services cost centre • The stimulation of new development – especially for private sector employers – will enable Coventry as an area to increase the level of tax that is collected at local and national level.

Expected tangible Outputs/Outcomes to be realised resulting from the project (net additional)

Expected tangible Outputs/Outcomes Metric 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Total Direct: Total Length of newly built roads and redesign of existing roads Metres 1085 1085 Number Direct: Construction Jobs of jobs 887 Indirect: Size of development land Square unlocked metres 60,232 60,232 Indirect: Employment connected to Number development sites (jobs) of jobs 3821 Indirect: Housing connecting to Number Friargate development of units 433 Direct: Apprenticeships Number 44 Table 10: Summary of Outputs and Outcomes for Coventry Station Masterplan

All of the project outputs are listed in the above table (see Appendix I2 for source data). There are 3 indirect outputs linked to the development land that will be unlocked as a result of the project.

Section C3: Public Service Reform

Public Service Reform key programme areas

The WMCA SEP identifies public sector reform as a cross cutting principle that features in all key programme areas. Public service reform refers to improving life chances for all, especially those facing multiple disadvantages and to eliminate the differences between taxes raised and public expenditure in the area (WMCA SEP page 30). Coventry Station Masterplan will contribute to public sector reform in the following ways: • Additional jobs created – Unemployment in Coventry is presently 5.9% (higher than the GB average of 5.1% for the same period1) and economic inactivity is 31.6% (9.4% higher than the GB average) – figures from NOMIS July 2016. It is estimated that the project will create 3821 new jobs, in addition to 887 construction jobs and 44 apprenticeships (5% of construction jobs). Through the local infrastructure of job shop, FE and private training providers that exists, local people will be given high levels of support to secure the employment opportunities that become available. These jobs will be made available to local unemployed and economically inactive people through the operation of the City Centre job shop that will work with contractors in the building phase and occupiers when completed. Contracts will have employment clauses requiring work with the job shop and advertising through the job shop and employment fairs. • Improvement to the City Centre – The highway improvements included in the Coventry Station Masterplan will lead to considerable improvements in important parts of the city centre for the benefit of Coventry’s residents and encourage more visitors who will spend more in the local economy. It also strengthens the offering of the other city centre schemes such as the retail re-development which will benefit local communities by providing new and improved leisure facilities and by attracting business and investment to Coventry. • Housing created – 433 new housing units will be created as part of the Friargate development, closely linked to the Coventry Station Masterplan.

Section C4: Stakeholder Involvement

Please refer to OBC Qs 4-5 for Stakeholder Involvement. Stakeholder Map Table 11 lists the stakeholders and their involvement in the project. The key stakeholders continue to be directly involved in the project in line with the project Stakeholder Engagement Strategy (appendix I9). A key upcoming stakeholder consultation event is the planning consultation which will take place in November 2017, ahead of submission of the planning applications in December 2017.

1 ONS - ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment (2016) 26

Influence Stakeholder Role Attitude Interest/Consultation /Stakeholder Analysis

Department UK Government Very Positive Providing funding for part of the scheme to High for Transport Department support increased use of public transport, (DfT) (Rail) enhanced rail service to & from city, reduction in road congestion, environmental benefits, boost to local tourism / economy. Closely involved throughout the project. MoU in place between CCC and DfT regarding the commercial model and operation of the multi-storey car park.

Network Rail Rail Very Positive Positive attitude to the scheme that will Very High Infrastructure providing enhanced infrastructure to better (Primary (sponsors) Provider serve the needs of the rail users. The stakeholder) majority of land required to deliver the scheme is on Network Rail operational land. They are fully on board with supporting the property process required to enable construction and handover of facilities on this land. NR has been part of the project team and a Statutory Station Change Consultee.

Virgin Trains Manage station Positive Virgin Trains are the current Station Very high and train Franchise Operator, as with Network Rail (Primary operator they hold an interest in the land required to stakeholder) deliver the project, and have an operational (Affected by interest. They are also a key delivery partner disruption) and are part of the project governance and are delivering £2.4M improvements to the existing station facilities. Virgin are supportive of the project and will manage the day to day running of the station, they currently operate existing services on the line. Virgin are a statutory Station Change Consultee.

Coventry City Will lead on this Very Positive The City Council has taken advantage of Very high Council project in recent changes in railway regulations to partnership with become a ‘station investor’ at Coventry other station. stakeholders and will lead on the delivery the project.

Friargate LLP Developer for Positive The developer for the Friargate Very high Friargate development, Friargate LLP are supportive of (Primary development the scheme and will be producing a revised stakeholder) version of their outline masterplan to reflect the Station Masterplan.

London Train operator Very Positive London Midland, currently operate existing High Midland services along the Coventry – Nuneaton and Birmingham – Coventry – London train line have been very positive towards the schemes. London Midland also have staff facilities at the current station. LM is a statutory Station Change consultee and expressed no concerns thus far.

Abellio Train operator Very Positive Abellio (under the West Midlands Trains Ltd High partnership) will take over from London Midland to operate existing services along the Coventry – Nuneaton and Birmingham – Coventry – London train line have been very positive towards the schemes and have made provision in their new franchise for additional services between Coventry- Nuneaton on completion of the NUCKLE 1.2 infrastructure.

Cross Country Train Operator Neutral Cross Country operate the existing services Low Trains along the Leamington – Coventry – Birmingham train line. Cross Country are a statutory Station Change consultee and have expressed no concerns thus far

West Midlands WMCA Positive WMCA are very supportive of each strand of Very High Combined devolution deal the redevelopment works at Coventry Rail Authority will fund part of Station. Their interest is strategic as well as Coventry potentially operational Railway Station Master Plan

Transport for Determine Positive TfWM is very supportive of the Very High West Midlands transport redevelopment works which closely align strategy for West with TfWM Transport Plan 2017/18 Midlands

Bus Operators Bus Operators - Positive National Express, Stagecoach, DeCourcey are High National Express, supportive of the project as it will provide Stagecoach, improvement in services, quicker journey DeCourcey and times and better interchange facilities for Johnson’s customers. Coaches

Rail/Bus Users Rail and Bus Positive The Station development will enable safer Low users who use and more efficient journeys to a wider range Coventry Station of destinations, both within the city centre to interchange. and the wider Coventry, Warwickshire and the wider West Midlands region.

Local May be affected Neutral Local businesses face the environmental Medium Businesses/line by construction (Positive) impact of construction works and new infrastructure, but realise the benefits that

side (but benefits on the development works will bring for new neighbours completion) enhanced facilities for their customers and an improved level of service. Central 6 traders have been very positive about the scheme, as the new link road will provide an additional access into their retail park.

Local Residents Potential to be Neutral The primary group is the Friargate Residents Low affected by (Positive) Group. The Group are supportive of the construction Station Masterplan and concept of the (but benefits on Friargate Masterplan, although keen to completion) understand phasing and potential level of disruption to them during the development works.

Leader, Cabinet Make decisions Positive Scheme is in line with council priorities Very high members and about Councils including local jobs, civic pride and improving elected priorities and the street scene. members spend, and represent local people

Large Have a high Positive Will realise the benefits that the Low businesses number of staff (Negative) development works will bring for new who commute to enhanced facilities for their staff and an the city for work improved level of service. Positive attitude and knowledge that the new station facility and improved pedestrian and ring road improvements will benefit them upon completion.

Coventry and The guiding force Positive CWLEP Local Growth Deal will fund part of Very High Warwickshire that ensures all the redevelopment of Coventry Station and LEP private and is a key priority and scheme in their Strategic public sector Economic Plan which is underpinned by parties in the continued investment in transport region are infrastructure for both the strategic road working network and, significantly, north – south rail together with a links and the A46. common, shared purpose – to make a difference to the economy and increase prosperity.

Taxi drivers Work at the Neutral Taxis will be affected by the works through Medium station, first face changes in the road layout and disruption. of Coventry to Taxi companies have a neutral position as visitors short term disruption will lead to longer term benefits of bringing increased number of customers and an improved taxi rank facility.

Freight Represents the Neutral The station redevelopment will involve track Low Transport transport modifications to Coventry North sidings, a Association interests of new freight loop is required at Three Spires companies Junction to replace capacity and create moving goods by flexibility. road, rail, sea

and air

Land Owners Land Owners Neutral Owners of land around development that Very High may be required. (dependent on desire to sell)

Coventry Local University Positive Staff and students use station and good Low University transport infrastructure will attract more students to the city.

Warwick Local University Positive Staff and students use station and good Low University transport infrastructure will attract more students to the city.

King Henry VIII Closest school Positive Affected by changes to road Low school layout/disruption

Accessibility Partnership Neutral General improvements to accessibility on Medium Users Group activities on DDA the railway route. at Stations

Passenger Rail User Lobby Positive Quality of rail facility provision and train Medium Focus Group service to passengers.

Rail Future Rail Lobby Group Positive General improvements to the national Low railway network.

Table 11: Coventry Station Masterplan Project Stakeholders

Section C5: Strategic Issues/Risks

Please refer to OBC Qs 6-9 for Strategic Issues/Risks. Barriers to Delivery 1) Coventry Railway Station Master Plan For the improvements proposed through the Coventry Railway Station Masterplan, there are three principal barriers to delivery:

• Funding Constraints. Any regeneration project where public intervention is required can only proceed and ultimately achieve its full benefits if sufficient funding can be secured. As is so often the case with regeneration linked to public assets such as a railway station, market failure prevents private investment from providing the bulk of funding, because a private investor cannot capture and monetise the benefits. Therefore, public funding must be secured from several sources with different eligibility criteria and timetables in order for the Masterplan works to be completed. In addition, projects involving rail are often

expensive and subject to delay because of the additional consents required and complex contractual relationships between rail industry parties. • Minimising Disruption to Station Operations. As set out above, Coventry Railway Station’s success in terms of rising passenger numbers and the new rail connections that are planned present huge opportunities to the City. However, completing a major construction project in and around a busy mainline station will act as a constraint; works will have to be scheduled to minimise disruption and in some cases will have to be completed in a way that is more expensive or more time consuming so that the station can continue to operate as close as possible to full capacity. • Third Party Land. Some of the land required for the projects is not owned or leased by the Council or by partners such as Network Rail and Virgin Trains. This will need to be acquired, and in some cases the timing of this land becoming available, or the costs of acquiring it will act as constraints for certain elements of the overall Masterplan project. This is particularly pertinent for the new highway works.

Section C6: Alignment with a Broader Programme

Please refer to OBC Qs 10 for Programme Alignment. The planning and delivery of the wider programme of City Centre First and UK Central Plus has not suffered any setbacks that would affect this project. The Coventry Station Masterplan project forms the major part of the City Centre First package along with the project to improve ring road junctions 1, 4 and 5. Although the ring road improvements project will assist in improving access to Coventry Rail station the two projects can be progressed independently of one another. The Coventry Very Light Rail project is likely to interface with the railway station via Warwick Road, as shown on the schematic Figure 1. There is an interface between the two projects, as the highway improvements delivered under Coventry Station Masterplan need to be compatible with the requirements for a the Very Light Rail system. This has been factored into the highway design. There is also an aspiration that there will be a key Very Light Rail hub on Warwick Road near the railway station entrance to enable seamless modal interchange. A dependency exists between the Coventry Station Masterplan and the Friargate Development Masterplan which aims to deliver up to 15,000 new jobs and 433 new homes in the City. The Coventry Station Masterplan project includes significant highway improvements, (Friargate West), which includes a new north-south link road to connect the bus interchange to the ring road, a new roundabout, realignment of Warwick Road and a new road to provide access to the MSCP directly onto Warwick Road. [This and the station improvements are key enablers for the Friargate Masterplan and in turn the additional employment and new housing based trips are factored into the forecast demand growth for Coventry station.]

3. Programme Alignment: Please complete the Prioritisation Template [attach as an appendix] – this will be used to evaluate this project against others within the programme and across other programmes

N/A – Agreed with WMCA that Prioritisation template does not need to be completed.

Economic Case Section D: Economic Case - Options Appraisal

Section D1: Short List of Options considered

4. Please highlight any changes to the Preferred Option, Alternative Option and Reference Case option (see OBC Qs 11-15 for detail). All elements of the project are now either at GRIP Stage 4 (single option development) or GRIP 6 (Construction, Test and Commission) having cleared the GRIP 3 (Option Selection) stage. There have been no changes to the preferred option that was approved by WMCA at SOBC stage in May 2017.

Preferred Option The preferred Station Masterplan option arises from a systematic process of option evaluation at GRIP Stage 3 undertaken in conjunction with rail industry partners. The Phase 1 elements of the project have also been approved by the rail industry under the regulatory ‘Station Change’ consultation process. This option has been chosen because it ensures that the city gains the maximum economic benefit from its rail connections. The preferred option has been reached through extensive traffic modelling and design development. Visuum modelling has been undertaken to determine the highway layout, which has identified the need for extensive highway infrastructure improvements around the railway station to provide the capacity and operational performance to cater for planned growth. It will also serve the Friargate development, and has been designed to align with the Friargate Masterplan as far as possible in order to unlock development plots to be brought forward, including 433 new homes. The station building, footbridge and car park are based on passenger flow demand modelling, forecasting up to 2043. The bus interchange will increase the number of stops that serve the railway station to enable growth in bus journeys to serve the station and Friargate development, alongside the adjacent retail park.

Do Nothing Option The most recent demand modelling undertaken by Systra using the latest station patronage data from the ORR (2015/16) and detailed journey and revenue information from Virgin Trains demonstrates that demand at Coventry station has grown by 22.7% in the 3 years from 2012/13 to 2015/16. The WSP report dated May 2014 concluded that the stairways connecting platforms 2,3 and 4 had already reached capacity in the morning peak and that based on forecast growth the main access between the station concourse and platform 1 would reach capacity by 2019 (see Fig.4). These conclusions were based on pedestrian count data from 2013 undertaken by Arup Consulting and the Network Rail Station Capacity Guidance dated January 2014 and used to determine the point at which demand would start to be suppressed due to capacity constraints at the station. These conclusions, however assumed an annual passenger demand growth rate of 2.3% between 2013 and 2016 whereas the actual annual growth rate has been 7.1% over the same period. This rate of growth now means that the main station access point has reached capacity in 2016 as opposed to 2019 as originally forecast and that demand is already being suppressed in the peak hours. The station concourse/gateline has a capacity of 2014 passengers per hour which is currently not exceeded but is forecast to be exceeded by around 2020. The updated modelling highlights the need to make urgent interventions to improve capacity at Coventry station if it is not to have a negative impact on jobs and economic growth in Coventry and the wider region.

Alternative Options

Two options were developed for Phase 2 of the Station Masterplan project in respect of the location of the new multi-story car park (MSCP).

Option A sited the new MSCP to the west of Warwick Road on the current Warwick Road railway car park next to the proposed new bus station and Option B sited the new MSCP on top of the new station entrance building.

Option A was more in keeping with the Friargate Masterplan but Option B provided a more attractive and integrated passenger experience. The Station Masterplan needs to deliver an improved passenger experience, and create a high quality user friendly gateway to the city to ensure a sustainable level of future growth and demand to not only retain the excellent north-south train links Coventry has, but also increase cross country services and improve connections from east to west and across the Midlands. Extensive engagement took place with the rail industry who stated a strong preference for Option B in operational terms. Both options require amendment to the Friargate Masterplan where it covers land in Network Rail ownership. Network Rail are fully supportive of the Station Masterplan project and support the use of their land to enhance the railway.

The two options were considered by Coventry City Council Cabinet in March 2017 and the recommended Option B was endorsed to be taken forward to GRIP Stage 4.

Section D2: Demand and Project Need

Please refer to OBC Qs 16-17 for Demand and Project Need

As an OBC wasn’t submitted, please see section C1 Rationale for Intervention, which has been updated following a similar rationale presented in the City Centre First SOBC under section 2, and section below.

Coventry station has a critical role in the provision of strategic and local access to and from both the West Midlands Combined Authority area and further afield. There has been considerable growth at the station in recent years reflecting a broader growth in rail use across the UK. The figures and table below illustrate the scale of this growth.

Figure 10: Passenger Growth at Coventry Railway Station (Millions of Passenger Journeys per Annum)

Growth 1998/2008 2008/2009 2009/2012 2012/2016 1998/2016

Coventry 44.0% 48.7% 20.7% 22.7% 227.9%

Wolverhampton 35.8% 68.1% -0.4% 12.8% 156.7%

Birmingham New St 48.9% 48.1% 24.0% 21.8% 242.2%

Birmingham International 38.2% 60.0% 5.5% 27.6% 209.8%

Leicester 56.2% 3.3% -4.6% 9.4% 65.0%

Nottingham 49.7% 1.7% 7.7% 11.6% 83.0%

Solihull 72.2% 124.6% -4.1% 17.9% 376.7%

Warwick Parkway 548.5% 12.7% -0.9% 8.5% 834.5%

Leamington Spa 89.1% 26.2% 14.0% 16.0% 228.6%

Table 12: Midlands Station Passenger Growth 1997-2016, based on trips per annum. Source: ORR and SLC Rail In particular growth has been extremely rapid in the period from 2012 to 2016, although this builds on a consistent pattern of demand growth over approaching a 20 year period.

Based on demand forecasts prepared for this study demand at the station will continue to increase over the next twenty years. Much of this growth is a functions of factors external to the railway as changes to the timetable over this period are relatively incremental. Instead much of the growth is driven by factors such as population change, and change in GDP.

However the existing capacity of the station is such that the existing station building will not be able to support this growth as the capacity of the staircases to platforms and the concourse will be insufficient and instead future growth will be suppressed with a proportion of passengers choosing to not to make trips.

The purpose of the scheme described here is to increase the capacity of the station to prevent this demand suppression occurring and in turn prevent the accumulation of dis-benefits associated with this such as increases in highway congestion as passengers shift to other modes.

In addition, the provision of an additional platform for services to Nuneaton will allow an increase in service frequency stimulating demand on the route. This will promote positive benefits (as opposed to a reduction in dis-benefits) as new passengers are encouraged to use rail.

Whilst much of the direct investment is related to releasing trips into the rail sector this provides support for the development of the economy in the Coventry area and the wider West Midlands area. For example high quality rail services operating with sufficient capacity will support the delivery of additional housing through a reduction in highways trips with capacity being released to accommodate new development trips. Equally the additional capacity at the station would allow residents of new housing to commute sustainably to jobs elsewhere.

The station will indirectly support the development of employment opportunities in the area. Most obviously, an improved station will support the Friargate development by making the area a more attractive place to access. This will help to promote agglomeration benefits as businesses across the West Midlands will be more likely to interact with central Coventry, in turn this will make the area a more attractive place for businesses to work in.

The railway industry is directly contributing £5m towards the NUCKLE Phase 1.2 element of the project and spending £2.4m on passenger facility upgrades at Coventry. It is highly unlikely, however, that the industry would fund a project of

this scope or afford it the same priority given other competing priorities and its inability to monetise the wider benefits through the farebox.

Section D3: Additionality

Please refer to OBC Qs 18-20 for Additionality

As the project has progressed directly from SOBC to FBC there is no OBC document for reference.

Additionality of WMCA Investment Without WMCA investment, it would only be possible for a more basic de-scoped programme of improvements to be delivered at Coventry Station within the current funding envelope. These improvements would include the footbridge and NUCKLE Bay Platform and associated track and signalling, but secure funding would not afford the second entrance, bus interchange and highways. This would also mean that the MSCP would not proceed, as the prudential modelling is based on a commercial model which takes into account the viability of the whole scheme.

These improvements would free up capacity at Coventry Station via a new footbridge and enable increased train services between Coventry and Nuneaton which address more immediate capacity issues, but would not futureproof capacity at the railway station.

As a result of not addressing the capacity constraints at Coventry station, there is forecast to be a resultant loss of 1m journeys per annum in 2037 and 1.2m by 2043 with and a corresponding loss of economic benefits to Coventry and the West Midland as a whole.

The suppression of demand would ultimately mean that this project would not achieve its chief objectives which are to provide better connectivity to the HS2 interchange and UK Central Growth Hub. Therefore, WMCA funding is essential to unlock the full benefits of this scheme.

Note that is has been agreed with WMCA that the DEIM model is not appropriate to identify the benefits of this project, however the data utilised in the economic appraisal and commercial case has been issued to the Black Country Intelligence Unit to be input into the DEIM model to feed into the wider economic outputs.

Additionality on a Regional Scale The scheme will promote additionality to the economy at a regional level. This will be achieved through by making the key gateway to Coventry a more attractive to place to arrive and depart from. By providing a high quality station environment with appropriate capacity to accommodate future demand the station will represent an attractive entrance to the city for potential investors which when coupled to high quality links across the UK will make the city a more attractive place to invest relative to other locations across the UK. This investment would increase the overall GVA of Coventry and in turn will have trickle down impacts on other sectors of the economy across the city.

At a local level the scheme, by improving access to rail services and thus improving level so connectivity will help support additionality in the economy within the West Midlands with the opportunity for improved interaction between Coventry and other major economies in the West Midlands such as Birmingham and Wolverhampton.

The construction of the additional platform to support an increase in services to Nuneaton will also provide additionality in the form of an increase in rail use and reduction in car use for trips along the route to Nuneaton. This will also help to promote agglomeration and labour market change at a local level with improvements in labour market catchments.

Commercial Case Section E: Commercial case – External Procurement (if appropriate)

5. Please highlight any changes to the Commercial Case (see OBC Qs 21-28 for detail). Do they impact on any other aspects of deliverability? There are no significant changes to the Commercial case assumptions which underpinned the previous Strategic Outline Case submitted to WMCA in May 2017. However, that submission did not cover all of the relevant parts of OBC questions 21 to 28 and so they are covered in more detail below:

Private Development Partners The Masterplan project does not include any private development partners as such but the business case for the Station Masterplan assumes that the Friargate development which is an office-led private development is delivered over the next 10 years, bringing up to 15,000 extra jobs and 433 new homes. The Friargate Masterplan was approved in 2011 and over £20m has already been invested in the public realm and routes leading to the station. Outline Planning consent has been obtained for the Friargate development and Friargate LLP continue to be closely involved in the development of the Station Masterplan project which helps to unlock improved access to their development. Friargate LLP intend to submit a planning application of an updated version of their Masterplan to reflect Coventry Station Masterplan. The City Council have invested over £40m in the first office building at Friargate, which is also occupied by the Financial Ombudsmen, forming a satellite office from their London Base. The Station Masterplan will complement the expansion of the development, including the Friargate FBC which is being submitted at the same time as this one.

Third Party services Since approval of the Strategic Outline Case in May 2017 the Council has commissioned SYSTRA Ltd under the guidance of SLC Rail to review and update the various elements of the Station Masterplan business case in order to provide a consolidated business case for the project that reflects the most recent patronage and revenue data for the station.

Planning Consents A planning strategy is in place which sets out all approvals required. The footbridge and bay platform are intended to be delivered under Network Rail Permitted Development powers. Two full planning applications are required for the station building and multi-storey car park, and bus interchange with associated highways works. Listed Building Consent will also be required for the station building and footbridge.

All applicants are working together, which includes Coventry City Council project team, Development Control, Planners and Conservation officers, SLC Rail, Friargate LLP and Network Rail, with the intention to submit applications simultaneously to enable plans to be viewed collaboratively.

Planning will be submitted in December 2017 following a pre-planning public consultation process commencing in November 2017, and approval should be in place by February 2017. To ensure all processes are followed correctly and robustly to reduce the risk of challenge a planning consultant has been appointed to oversee the process.

Statutory and Other Consents

The project also requires acquisition of third party land to deliver the western highways infrastructure (referred to in the SOBC as Friargate West), bus interchange and part of the access infrastructure required to complete the NUCKLE bay platform. Negotiations with the land owners are progressing and in parallel a Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) is being prepared, which will be made subject to approval of the remaining project funding via this FBC. A CPO will only be required

if negotiations are not successful. The project programme currently assumes worst case timescales for the CPO process of circa 24 months from submission to approval.

6. If you’ve been to procurement, how has this impacted price?

The various elements of the Masterplan are to be delivered in phases and therefore procurement and delivery of the works will also be phased. Tendered prices will, therefore, not be available for the majority of the project as funding needs to be established for the full project before committing to procurement for key elements. The Warwick Road underpass element of Phase 1 has been procured and delivered.

7. If you haven’t, why not? What are your plans for doing so?

The experience of delivering using Network Rail via a Design Services Agreement has justified the decision to review the previously assumed Implementation Agreement delivery route and move towards a strategy of directly managing the works, interfacing with Network Rail via an Asset Protection Agreement.

It is generally agreed that due to heavily rail based scope of NUCKLE 1.2, this package should be delivered by a single Principal Contractor. For the Footbridge & Canopies and 2nd Entrance building/MSCP our view is that the technical interfaces and the financial risks arising from delay on a bigger combined works package is too large for this programme to accept (taking the risks associated with accessing the railway and the order of magnitude of prelims of a larger contract into account). Accordingly, we are proposing two contracts for the delivery of these elements. The bus interchange and highways work will then form the fourth major procurement activity.

The type of contract for each construction phase is proposed to be an NEC3 Design and Build Option A or C. Due to the likely contract values each will require an OJEU compliant procurement process, which has been factored into the programmes. A Cabinet Report will be tabled to CCC Cabinet later in November to obtain approval for the project procurement strategy.

Financial Case

Section F: - Financial Analysis of the recommended Option

Section F1: Costs and Cost Assumptions

8. Please highlight any changes to the Costs and Cost Assumptions (see OBC Qs 29-32 for detail).

The programme costs have altered very slightly from the SOBC, whereby the total programme was reported to be £82.4m and has now been revised to £80m. All forecast budgets are costs estimates subject to change on the financial close of each project element.

Section F2: Funding, Financing and Assumptions

9. Please highlight any changes to the Funding, Financing and Assumptions (see OBC Qs 33-38 for detail).

No Change in funding since the SOBC apart from the £0.4m variance referenced above. The breakdown of funding is shown below in section 10. Section F3: Cashflow

10. Please provide an updated Cashflow (see OBC Q.39 for detail).

PRIOR CURRENT FUTURE YEARS YEARS YEAR 2014/15 PROGRAMME – 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total £’000 2016/17 CCC Internal Costs 207 269 263 120 75 58 992 Rocket Pub 154 154 Access Tunnel 2,893 113 41 3,047 Footbridge & Canopies 957 488 4,292 1,746 7,483 Multi-Storey Car Park 320 229 524 5,729 4,280 11,082 Secondary Entrance 369 297 674 4,605 3,076 9,021 Bus Interchange 213 394 466 109 1,841 892 3,915 Substation 66 307 859 1,232 Highways 355 277 8,610 6,252 1,636 17,130 Nuckle 1.2 934 804 9,419 4,380 15,537 Contingency 314 4,529 5,215 2,363 12,421 TOTAL PROGRAMME 6,113 3,256 17,129 29,828 20,739 4,949 82,014 Table 13: Coventry Station Masterplan Cashflow

2014/15 FUNDING – 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Total £’000 2016/17

CWLEP Growth Deal – SECURE 5,543 3,256 12,575 3,674 25,048 DfT/Network Rail – SECURE 3,132 1,868 5,000 Other Public Sector – SECURE 570 106 968 1,644

Prudential Borrowing – SECURE 4,599 5,185 1,138 10,922

UKC (WMCA) – SUBJECT TO FBC 1,422 14,644 8,334 24,400 HS2 (WMCA) – SUBJECT TO FBC 4,937 6,252 3,811 15,000 TOTAL PROGRAMME 6,113 3,256 17,129 29,828 20,739 4,949 82,014

Table 14: Coventry Station Masterplan Resources

Please see appendix I4 for a more detailed breakdown of the cashflow and resources. The Liability Forecast tab of the spreadsheet provides a month by month breakdown of project expenditure and the other tabs provide background regarding how these figures have been derived and links to expenditure to date.

Section F4: Benefits Profiling

11. Please provide an updated profile of the qualitative and quantitative benefits of the project (see OBC Q.41 for detail)

The following section sets out to provide a summary of the qualitative and quantitative benefits of the Coventry Station Masterplan project. There are a number of key groups of benefits associated with the scheme. These are described in detail below. A number of sensitivity tests have been undertaken and thus the quantified benefits do vary by option. A full breakdown of the calculations to support sections F4 and F5 can be found in Appendix I3.

The main elements of the scheme from which benefits are derived are:

• New station building, footbridge and canopies – improved access to platforms and around concourse, reducing the level of congestion in the station and preventing demand being suppressed. In addition, new retail units will provide a source of revenue; • New multi storey car park - This will move parking closer to the station access and releases space elsewhere on the site for a new bus interchange; • New 6 bay bus interchange, with provision for 2 coach bays which will be operated by TfWM (subject to formal agreement); • New platform – This will provide a dedicated platform for trains to Nuneaton allowing an increase in service frequency to 2tph and bringing an overall improvement in the reliability of services using the station.

New Station Building, Footbridge and Canopies

The construction of a new station building to the north of the existing building will generate a range of benefits. The main source of these benefits comes from the increased capacity that the new building and its associated footbridge will bring to the station over and above the existing station building which will remain in place.

At the present time, the station operates very close to capacity. The staircase to the main footbridge is estimated to have a capacity of 1,500 passengers per hour. This capacity is already exceeded on occasions during the morning and evening peak periods. The station concourse/gateline has a capacity of 2104 passengers per hour which is currently not exceeded but is forecast to be exceeded by around 2020.

Over time demand at the station is forecast to increase, however with capacity issues at the station this level of growth will be increasingly suppressed as potential passengers make alternative arrangements because of the congestion at the station. Whilst demand growth will not be suppressed completely the station will start to lose an increasing number of passengers. The demand modelling assumes that in the early years the impact on demand growth will be relatively low with only 15% of demand growth suppressed rising to 60% within 15 years.

Providing sufficient capacity at the station to accommodate passenger growth will bring the following benefits:

• Increased rail revenue accruing to TOCs/central government • Mode shift from car to rail bringing decongestion, accident, and environmental benefits • Benefits to existing passengers from improved pedestrian flows within the station • Value of time savings for passengers moving from car to rail

In addition to the impacts of reducing congestion around the station the new station building will also generate benefits from the revenue from the rental of retail space in the new building and from the provision of additional car parking spaces

In addition to these quantifiable impacts the scheme will also generate some additional qualitative benefits. For example, the development of the new station will help to improve the quality of the built environment around the station, and will help to assist in the regeneration of the area and act as a facilitator of the Friargate development. Additionally, the station building may also have a limited impact on physical activity, as encouraging more people to travel by rail would help to promote the use of active modes to reach the station.

Figure 11 below illustrates the current modal split of access to Coventry station. It is notable that the percentage of users accessing the station by car is relatively low at 11% who park in the station car park or nearby with a further 17% who get a lift. This may partly be explained by the recent, (late 2016) increase in daily car parking charge from £8 to £12 and withdrawal of the off-peak tariff. Nevertheless, it suggests that any abstraction of demand that may occur when the HS2 station at Birmingham Interchange opens, which will be mainly car based, will have a relatively low overall impact on Coventry station usage.

In contrast 70% of users access Coventry station by public transport or on foot suggesting that the improvements proposed in the Station Masterplan in respect of public transport access will have a disproportionately higher impact

COVENTRY STATION - SUMMARY OF ACCESS MODE Drove to Station Car Other Park 2% 8% Drove - Parked Elsewhere 3%

Walk 31% Lift 17%

Taxi 12% Train 8%

Bus 19%

Figure 11: Summary of modes of access to Coventry Railway Station (data 2016)

New Multi Storey Car Park

The new multi storey car park is proposed to be sited on top of the new station building providing a more seamless experience for those who access the station by car. The new 633 space car park facilitates the redevelopment of other parts of the site as well as increasing the net number of parking spaces by just over 300 with an additional 152 allocated for rail customer use. Based on the current car park occupancy and growth forecasts the current car park is expected to be at capacity and therefore suppressing demand from 2024.

The specific quantifiable benefits of the scheme include:

• The release of land to provide space for the new station building and also a bus interchange facility. • The movement of more spaces from the overflow car parks at the station to spaces closer to the station building helping to reduce access times from car to train for passengers. • The generation of additional car park revenue as the new car park will be able to accommodate additional demand.

NUCKLE Phase 1.2 New Bay Platform 5 and associated track/signalling

The opening of a separate bay platform to serve the Coventry – Nuneaton service forms part of the wider NUCKLE Phase 1.2 programme of investments. However, this aspect of the scheme has been incorporated into the Coventry Station Masterplan. The construction of the new platform will enable the existing service to Nuneaton to be increased in frequency

from hourly to half hourly. The new West Midlands franchise commencing in December 2017 contains a commitment to increase the service frequency once the new platform and other associated infrastructure is built. This will bring a range of benefits including:

• Reduced journey time for existing users • Increased demand for the service abstracting passengers from road bringing decongestion, accident and environmental benefits

In addition to the above the service will deliver a further broader benefit. The diversion of the Nuneaton service to a dedicated bay platform will have an impact on the reliability of the operation of all services around the station. It has been estimated that each train using the station would receive an average 8 second journey time benefit as a result of the removal of the Nuneaton trains from the main station platforms. This represents a significant benefit to passengers, both those using Coventry station and also those passing through, along with presenting more flexibility for other services.. It should be noted, however, that the reliability benefits that will accrue have not been included in the economic appraisal.

Quantitative Benefits

The table below summarises the quantified benefits accruing to the scheme. These are presented for four scenarios. The table is based on a 60 year appraisal period with demand caps applied based on either the staircase or concourse capacities and either with or without the inclusion of London trips. Tests were conducted with unconstrained growth for services to London (tempered by minor service changes when HS2 is complete), and a cap on London trips of only 75% of existing and forecast London trips using Coventry station after HS2 is opened, to reflect the impact of the HS2 Birmingham Interchange station abstracting 25% of the current and forecast London trips using Coventry station.

All benefits are expressed as 2010 discounted values as per WebTAG guidelines.

Staircase Cap Concourse Cap Unconstrained Capped London Unconstrained Capped London London London Suppressed Demand £104.76m £88.46m £69.48m £53.19m Rail Revenue NUCKLE Rail £1.32m £1.32m £1.32m £1.32m Revenues Car Park Revenues £3.61m £0.67m £0.34m £0.32m Retail Rents £7.90m £7.90m £7.9m £7.90m Mode Shift £11.96m £10.03m £8.21m £6.28m Decongestion Movement around £16.75m £15.41m £16.75m £15.41m Station Mode Shift Value of £10.26m £8.63m £7.25m £5.63m Time & Operating Costs NUCKLE User £23.77m £23.77m £23.77m £23.77m Benefits TOTAL £180.36m £156.22m £135.05m £113.84m Table 14 : Quantified Benefits over 60 years

It can be seen that the use of the Staircase Cap generates a greater level of benefit than the Concourse Cap. This is because the staircase has a lower capacity than the existing concourse and therefore if this cap is used to assess the scheme greater benefits are achieved as demand starts to be suppressed from an earlier stage. The scale of the impact of revenue to and from London is also clear. For example, removing London revenues for the staircase cap option over 60 years reduces revenue by £16.3m. This reflects a combination of high yield and high demand for the flow towards London.

Section F5: Affordability and Value for Money

12. Please provide evidence of affordability.

To understand the value for money of the scheme a WebTAG appraisal has been undertaken to understand fully the relationship between costs and benefits.

A number of appraisal shave been conducted with one central case appraisal and a further four sensitivity tests. The range of sensitivity tests reflects differing appraisal periods, the inclusion and exclusion of London revenues and the choice of demand suppression cap.

Much of the methodology deployed to undertake both demand forecasting work that supports this appraisal and the assessment of economic benefits is based on work conducted by WSP in 2014 but updated using observed demand growth between 2013 and 2016. In addition, however the impact of NUCKLE Phase 1.2 has also been incorporated into the appraisal because it is also impacts on demand and capacity. The appraisal is based on three high level assumptions:

1. That background demand growth increases in line with PDFH, (Rail industry Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook), forecasts and that the service operated from Coventry remains broadly stable except for a number of changes in 2026/27 associated with the opening of HS2 and the reuse of rail capacity. The exceptions to this are; the service between Coventry and Nuneaton where frequency is assumed to improve to half hourly as a result of the completion of the bay platform at Coventry by 2021 and; the service between Coventry and Leamington which is assumed to improve from one to two trains per hour from the opening of the new Kenilworth station in 2018. 2. That the size and capacity of the existing station facilities will suppress this forecast background growth, with potential passengers instead using alternative modes or foregoing their journeys. 3. The construction of the new station buildings, footbridge and car park will provide sufficient additional capacity to prevent demand from being suppressed at the station. Passengers using the station will also see changes to the station access component of their journeys as, for example, bus interchange is improved, local highway improvements are implemented and additional car parking is introduced.

Estimating Demand Growth To understand the potential level of suppressed demand at Coventry station it is necessary to understand the potential level of demand growth over the appraisal period. This was achieved by using approaches set out in the Rail Delivery Group, Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, looking at the impact of external factors. The approach taken estimated background growth due to exogenous factors such as changes in population, GDP and the level of car ownership, but also endogenous factors which included changes to service levels including the early frequency improvements to Nuneaton and Leamington and those which follow the opening of the first Phase of HS2 at the end of 2026 which will result in alterations to the timetable through Coventry.

LENNON ticket sales data for Coventry for 2016-17 was used as the starting point for estimating demand and revenue. For simplicity the LENNON data was divided into nine groups as set out below, based on the service patterns radiating from Coventry. These groups were as follows:

Group Locations Birmingham Centro area plus Worcestershire London London and South East stations Rugby West Coast Mainline Rugby – Watford Junction Solihull Solihull, Canley, Tile Hill Reading Banbury, Oxford, Thames Valley, South Coast East Midlands Hinckley, Leicester, East Midlands and East Anglia via Nuneaton North Yorkshire & Humber, North East, North West, Scotland South Warwickshire Kenilworth, Leamington Spa, Warwick, Stratford-upon-Avon NUCKLE Local stations to Nuneaton inclusive Table 14: Coventry Ticket Sales Lennon Data Grouping (2016-17)

The overall approach taken is based on that applied by WSP in 2014, however the grouping of stations has been amended to have a separate category for local trips to Nuneaton, whilst trips to Yorkshire and the North East which were previously routed via Nuneaton and Leicester are instead included in the “North” groups and are assumed to route via Birmingham. The table below presents the data sources that impact on the calculation of background growth.

Background Growth Component Data Source & Assumptions Used Current GDP per Capita DfT Wider Impacts Dataset estimate of GDP divided by estimated employees Future GDP per Capita DfT Wider Impacts Dataset estimate of GDP divided by estimated employees Current Year (2017) Population TEMPRO Future Year (2037) Population TEMPRO Non-car ownership TEMPRO Forecast (2037) Non-Car Ownership TEMPRO Fuel Costs (Current and Future) DfT Webtag guidance Car Travel Time DfT NTM Dataset (West Midlands Area) Bus Costs & Bus Headway As Now Bus Travel Time DfT NTM Dataset (West Midlands Area) Air Costs & Air Headway As Now Table 15: Data sources and assumptions used in calculations of Background Growth at Coventry Station (2017)

A number of assumptions were made about how service levels will change over the coming years at Coventry. The table below presents the assumed service changes by destination station grouping. In general, it will be noted the majority of the services changes occur after Phase 1 of HS2 opens in 2026.

Group Locations Future Service Change Birmingham Centro area plus Worcestershire Improvement from 8 to 9 trains per hour from 2027 London London and South East stations Post HS2 6tph with one fast train replaced with a semi fast Rugby West Coast Mainline Rugby – Watford Jn No change Solihull Solihull, Canley, Tile Hill Move from 3tph to 4tph in 2027 Reading Banbury, Oxford, Thames Valley, South Coast Move from 1tph to 2tph in 2027 East Midlands Hinckley, Leicester, East Midlands and East 2TPH to Nuneaton from 2021 Anglia via Nuneaton North Yorkshire & Humber, North East, North West, No change in services to the North West, Scotland direct 1tph service to Yorkshire & North East post HS2. South Warwickshire Kenilworth, Leamington Spa, Warwick, 1 to 2TPH from 2018 after Kenilworth Stratford-upon-Avon station opens, 3TPH post HS2 in 2027 NUCKLE Local stations to Nuneaton inclusive 2TPH from 2021 when new Coventry bay platform opens Table 16: Coventry Rail Station Future Service Changes

An estimate of demand changes was calculated using guidance in Section B4 of PDFH on dealing with generalised journey time changes. When forecasting demand a demand cap of 20 years from the current date was applied, meaning that demand growth was capped at 2037.

The tables below set out the level of increase in demand for each of the destination groups, including both exogenous and endogenous growth. These results are weighted by journey purpose and time period splits.

Group Exogenous Growth Service Changes* Overall Increase Birmingham 54% 2% 57% London 165% -3% 157% Rugby 41% 11% 57% Solihull 47% 22% 80% Reading 101% 13% 128% East Midlands 48% 22% 80% North 103% 10% 123% South Warwickshire 59% 11% 76% NUCKLE 64% 19% 95% Table 17: Coventry Station Origin Trip Growth Factors (2017-2037)

Group Exogenous Growth Service Changes* Overall Increase Birmingham 48% 2% 52% London 176% -3% 168% Rugby 50% 11% 66% Solihull 40% 22% 71% Reading 115% 13% 144% East Midlands 41% 22% 71% North 91% 10% 109% South Warwickshire 62% 11% 80% NUCKLE 64% 19% 95% Table 18: Coventry Station Destination Trip Growth Factors (2017-2037) *Note that this is a fixed increase applied to the exogenous growth at the point the service change is implemented

Based on the growth forecasts it is possible to estimate the total station usage for Coventry. Current ORR Station Usage data suggests that total demand form the station is around 6.921m trips per annum. Over the period to 2037 this is forecast to rise to 14.8m if demand remains uncapped.

Suppressed Demand

In assessing the level of demand suppression it has been assumed that when the station exceeds capacity not all displaced passengers would be suppressed. This is because some inelastic passengers will tolerate the conditions whilst others may retime their journeys to a less crowded time. In the 2014 assessment WSP assumed a stepped approach to the proportion of trips over capacity actually being suppressed. With the proportion changing in five year increments. In this revised assessment, we have amended this to provide a smoothed value running from 15% of trips over capacity being suppressed in 2017 through to 60% of trips in 2032. This rise from 15% to 60% follows the boundaries used by WSP in their study.

A further assumption related to the above is what those passengers who are suppressed will do instead. The assumption here follows work conducted by WSP in 2014 and proposes that 1/3 of the suppressed demand will switch to alternative rail stations and thus remain in the rail system, 1/3 will not make the journey at all and the remaining 1/3 will travel using an alternative mode such as car. Based on work developed by WSP in 2014 it was found that the demand cap for the staircase at the station is 1,500 trips per hour and the concourse is around 2,104 trips per hour.

Calculating Suppressed Demand

To understand the level of suppressed demand at the station in the future the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook was used to estimate background growth at the station over the period from 2017 to 2037. It was assumed that the service would remain static over this time apart from a number of changes that would take place around 2026/2027 when HS2 Phase 1 opened and services around Coventry were restructured. At this point it was assumed as a sensitivity test that trips to London would only grow by around 75% of their forecast demand as some passengers would divert to use HS2 rather than the classic service via the WCML.

The table below presents the overall estimates of growth and suppressed demand on an average weekday using different demand caps.

2017-18 Demand 2037-38 Demand Unconstrained Demand 16,024 33,018 Constrained Demand (Staircase 15,880 29,652 Cap) Constrained Demand (Concourse 16,024 30,609 Cap) Difference (Staircase Cap) -144 -3,366 Difference (Concourse Cap) 0 -2,409 Table 19: Forecast Demand with and without demand caps (0700-1900 Weekday Demand)

It can be seen that in 2017 the station is already likely to be suppressing a small amount of demand each day if the staircase cap is used, however if the concourse cap is used the station still has capacity remaining. However by 2020 both the staircase and concourse caps have been breached and by 2037 there are 3,366 trips suppressed each day based on the staircase cap and 2,409 trips based on the concourse cap.

Suppressed Rail Ticket Revenue

To understand the value of ticket revenue accruing to suppressed passengers LENNON data was used to estimate an average revenue per single journey for each of the service groups, which was then applied to the total number of suppressed trips to estimate the overall impact on revenue. Following the approach taken by WSP in 2014 it was assumed that rail fares remained constant over time.

Revenue for the NUCKLE element of the scheme was calculated based on an average fare per mile for trips on the route based on LENNON data for trips on the route originating at Coventry. The table below presents a summary of the estimated rail revenue for the options when discounted back to 2010 prices based on a 60 year appraisal period.

It should be noted that sensitivity tests have been completed that exclude London revenue from the appraisal to explore what would occur if there was a significant diversion of trips to use the HS2 station at Birmingham Interchange rather than using Coventry station to access London. Whilst the choice between HS2 and the classic network to London is clear in the centre of Coventry for areas further from the station it is possible that Birmingham Interchange may become more attractive for car borne trips.

The table below presents the revenue generated if all suppressed trips were realised as a result of the scheme for the different scenarios. The values presented are discounted to 2010 values and based on a 60 year appraisal period.

60 Year Appraisal Staircase Cap – Uncapped London £104.76m Staircase Cap – Capped London £88.46m Concourse Cap – Uncapped London £69.48m Concourse Cap – Capped London £53.19m Table 20: Forecast Rail Revenue (£m Discounted to 2010 values)

Suppressed Car Parking Ticket Revenue

The impact on car parking revenues of the release of suppressed demand was also considered. The approach compared the existing parking capacity of 859 spaces with the future capacity of 1,011 spaces, (1,160 including spaces for Friargate). Revenue would be lost in the station car park as a result of the cap on capacity at the station, however even allowing for that the car park will itself be full by 2024 as result of background growth, which will in turn force passengers to seek alternative options.

The revenue impact of the car parks was assessed based on the current charge of £12 per day, but extracting a yield of only £7.42 on average as result of discounts for season tickets, weekend pricing and other factors. The table below presents an estimate of the car park revenue accruing as a result of both the construction of additional parking spaces and the release of suppressed capacity as a result of the rebuilding of the station. It should be noted that the sensitivity test associated with London does not apply in this case as the passengers are assumed to exist in that test but not make trips to London, perhaps instead travelling to the Birmingham Interchange station.

60 Year Appraisal Staircase Cap – Uncapped London £3.61m Staircase Cap – Capped London £0.67m Concourse Cap – Uncapped London £0.34m Concourse Cap – Capped London £0.32m Table 21: Forecast Rail Revenue (£m Discounted to 2010 values)

The values presented above are relatively low, however it should be noted that the existing car park has some capacity remaining, and so the impacts of the car extension come later when values are more heavily discounted. It should also be noted that the revenues are based on an assumed yield of £7.42 per car and that the base level of usage is based on recent estimates of car park occupancy of 80% (based on data for September 2017), which presents car mode share of around 7%.

Retail Rentals

As part of the extension of the station a number of new retail units will be included in the station. The previous WSP study assumed a total rental value of these units of £650k per annum. This value has again been used in this assessment, however the value has been inflated using RPI to assume an opening year of 2020, giving an annual rental of value of £777k per annum. Over 30 years this produces a quantified discounted benefit of £6.68m and over 60 years £7.9m.

Transport User & Non-User Benefits

The scheme also generates a range of user and non-user benefits. These include a range of benefits including:

• Value of Time and Value of Operating Costs of the reorganisation of parking facilities and bus interchange facilities • Value of time impacts arising from the decongestion of the station accruing to existing and new users • Decongestion, accident, and environmental benefits from mode shift from car to rail • Journey time savings for users of the NUCKLE service as a result of the increase in service frequency from hourly to half hourly

Additional reliability benefits of around £15m were generated by the NUCKLE element of the scheme, however these have not been included in the appraisal in line with DfT WebTAG guidance. These benefits were calculated based on journey time changes between car and rail for trips that are abstracted between car and rail, and also changes in distance travelled and the impact of crowding around the station.

The table below presents a summary of these benefits.

Staircase Cap Concourse Cap Unconstrained Capped London Unconstrained Capped London London London Mode Shift £11.96m £10.03m £8.21m £6.28m Decongestion Movement around £16.75m £15.41m £16.75m £15.41m Station

Mode Shift Value of £10.26m £8.63m £7.25m £5.63m Time & Operating Costs NUCKLE User £23.77m £23.77m £23.77m £23.77m Benefits Table 22: User & Non-User Benefits over 60 Years (£m 2010 prices) 13. Please provide evidence of Value for Money. For example, please provide a Benefit-Cost ratio or a Cost-Effectiveness indicator, or other means to demonstrate why this project is a good use of public monies

Value for Money of the Scheme

An appraisal of the scheme and its options has been conducted over a 60 year appraisal period with a sensitivity test conducted over 30 years. The capital and operating costs have been taken from the financial case and where required have been inflated to deal with future year inflation and deflated back to the Department for Transport’s base year of 2010. Optimism Bias has also been applied at appropriative levels reflecting the different types of cost and the stage of development of the scheme.

The scheme costs include not just the capital cost of the works at the station (estimated before inflation and Optimism Bias at £82m), but also the operating costs of the station and the ongoing additional operating costs associated with the operation of a half hourly service to Nuneaton.

The Present Value of Costs is estimated at £95.68m over a 60 year appraisal period. For a 30 year sensitivity test these reduce to £91.71m. The difference between the two relates entirely to operating costs.

It should be noted that as the scheme will be delivered after the completion of the existing franchise all of the revenues that would accrue to train operators as a result of the service changes are instead transferred (net of operating costs) to central government in line with DfT guidance, with the revenue instead being used to reduce the balance of the Present Value of Costs. The impact of this varies between sensitivity tests, and some options appear to be financially positive as a result.

The tables below set out the value for money of the scheme, including the main components of costs and benefits. The central case option (highlighted in green) is the Concourse Cap with unconstrained London growth, delivering a BCR of 2.74 representing high value for money.

PVB £45,528,409 £42,443,184 Costs Payment Capital £70,469,414 £70,469,414.15 Grant Subsidy -£53,836,243.28 -£37,516,505.15 PVC £16,633,170.87 £32,952,909.00 NPV £28,895,238.26 £9,490,274.86 BCR 2.74 1.29 Table 23: Concourse Appraisal over 60 Years (Central Case highlighted in green)

2010 Prices and Values £m's Unconstrained London Capped London Benefits Noise £121,552 £121,552 Local Air Quality £102,481 £102,481 Greenhouse Gases £917,800 £917,800 Accidents £1,731,534 £1,731,534 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) £20,413,450 £19,823,677 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) £9,349,939 £9,114,030 Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers £8,429,418 £7,944,493 Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -£4,981,577 -£4,981,577 Farebox Revenue £106,082,435 £89,784,009 Parking Revenue £3,616,812 £673,440 Retail Revenue £7,900,344 £7,900,344 Operating Cost -£25,213,789 -£25,213,789 Grant Subsidy -£92,385,803 -£73,144,005 PVB £46,047,751 £44,737,144 Costs Payment Capital £70,469,414 £70,469,414 Grant Subsidy -£92,385,803 -£73,144,005 PVC -£21,916,389 -£2,674,590.86 NPV £67,964,139 £47,411,734.70 BCR FINANCIALLY POSITIVE FINANCIALLY POSITIVE

Table 24: Staircase Appraisal over 60 Years

2010 Prices and Values £m's Unconstrained London Benefits Noise £68,685 Local Air Quality £57,908 Greenhouse Gases £518,617 Accidents £978,430 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) £13,975,858 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) £6,399,856 Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers £5,708,772 Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -£2,814,917 Farebox Revenue £52,013,353 Parking Revenue £268,415 Retail Revenue £6,683,700 Operating Cost -£21,245,634 Grant Subsidy -£37,719,834 PVB £30,523,043 Costs Payment Capital £70,469,414 Grant Subsidy -£37,719,834 PVC £32,749,580 NPV -£2,226,536.62 BCR 0.93 Table 25: Sensitivity Test: Concourse Cap with Unconstrained London over 30 Years

It can be seen that the options provide a wide range of results. The concourse cap tests produce robust results as the concourse has a greater capacity to absorb demand than the staircases in the station.

The tests looking at the Concourse Cap are both financially positive as a result of the transfer of additional rail revenue to central government with the attendant reduction in the Present Value of Costs. Both provide good value for money, with the Central Case option over a 60 year appraisal period presenting very high value for money. The tests looking at the Staircase cap provide exceptionally high value for money and a notionally financially positive result, as a result of the revenue generated offsetting the costs over 60 years.

These tests have been based on the breaching of capacity limits over peak periods. In reality the issue of suppressed demand is likely to be more complex than this with peaks within peaks having an impact complicated further by the exact stopping pattern of trains which will determine capacity issues. It is also highly likely that over the 60 year appraisal period congestion impacts would also start to be felt in the inter-peak period but these impacts have not been modelled. With this in mind it is therefore felt that the results lie somewhere between the staircase and concourse caps. However, to provide a prudent and robust assessment the 60 year appraisal of the Concourse Cap with Unconstrained London growth has been chosen as the central case.

Summary

It can be seen that the Coventry Station Masterplan Scheme which has a number of distinct elements generates a range of different benefits, covering rail, retail rent and parking revenues along with transport user benefits as a result of the improved quality and capacity of the facilities at the station.

It has been shown that the scheme represents high value for money with a BCR in excess of 2.00 over a number of different modelled options. The preferred central case option represents high value for money with a BCR of 2.74, but is in fact likely to be a robust and conservative option as it is thought that the staircases at the station already operate above capacity.

Management Case

Section G: Programme Management Case - Achievability of Project Components

Section G1: Project Plan (Extract of Key Milestones)

14. Please provide an updated list of Key Project Milestones and Gantt Chart (see [Appendix XX]) (see OBC Qs 42-43 for detail). Key Milestone Delivery Date

Footbridge and Canopies

Planning / Listed Building Approval Mar 18

Design and Build Contract Award Date April 18

Detailed Design Complete Oct 18

Start Site Works June 18

Complete Site Works July 19

NUCKLE 1.2

Design and Build Contract Award Date May 18

Detailed Design Complete Oct 18

Start Site Works Oct 18

CPO Approval Mar 19

Complete Site Works May 19

Station Building and MSCP

Planning / Listed Building Approval Mar 18

Design and Build Contract Award Date Sept 18

Detailed Design Complete May 19

Start Site Works July 19

Complete Site Works Nov 20

Highways and Bus Interchange

Planning Approval Mar 18

Detailed Design Complete April 18

Construction Contract Award Date Mar 19

CPO Approval Mar 19

Start Site Works Mar 19

Complete Site Works July 21

Please refer to Appendix I5 for full programme.

Section G2: Risk Monitoring and Management

15. Please extract the details of the top 5 Risks from your project Risk Register: Description of Risk Land acquisition for highways, bus interchange and NUCKLE bay platform cannot be agreed by negotiation Impact (1-4) 4

Probability (1-4) 4