1 by Zaur Shiriyev Old Challenges with New Faces with New Faces Old Challenges AZERBAIJAN’S AZERBAIJAN’S PERCEPTIONS: SECURITY 2

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces Tiko Tkeshelashvili Democracy andDevelopment/CIPDD: ProjectManager, Caucasus Institute for Peace, Editor: JeffLovitt by ZaurShiriyev Old ChallengeswithNewFaces AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITYPERCEPTIONS: of theEuropean Union. can innowaybetakentoreflecttheviews Peace, Democracy andDevelopment, and responsibility oftheCaucasus Institute for contents ofthispublicationarethesole the assistanceofEuropean Union. The This publicationhasbeenproduced with the region. and todevelopacomprehensivevisionfor awareness abouttheEaPsecuritychallenges Scheme supported bythe (Ukraine). Promotion ofIntercultural Cooperation Association (Moldova) in partnershipwiththe and Development/CIPDD (Georgia) Caucasus Institute forPeace,Democracy on theEU’sEasternDoorstep framework oftheProject This policypaperwasproducedinthe cipdd.org 0154 Tbilisi,Georgia 72, Tsereteli Avenue and Development/CIPDD © Caucasus InstitutePeace, for Democracy . Theaimoftheprojectistoraise Theproject is EaP CSFRe-granting Foreign Policy and theNGO Security Alert , June2016 , bythe , determinants ofsuchpolicies. Caucasus states, withanemphasis on thedomestic foreignsecurity policiesoftheSouth andnational post-Soviet space,Turkish foreign policy, andthe security issues andconflictresolution inthe House) in London. Hisareas ofexpertise include RoyalInstitute of InternationalAffairs (Chatham ShiriyevZaur About the author: arguments expressed inthefinalpaper. bears soleresponsibility for theviews and Institute for Strategic Studies(BISS).The author Melyantsou,research fellowthe Belarusian at This paper was peer reviewed by Dzianis is an Academy Associate the at 3 by Zaur Shiriyev

in order to increase increase to in order Azerbaijan’s Security Azerbaijan’s should be considered a top a top be considered should is needed to limit the number of to is needed assesses the threats and the scope scope and the threats the assesses – to neutralise and address the security and address neutralise – to the by primarily shaped is it faces threats in the changes as negative as well positive One environment. and international regional the – essentially transformation of angle in the observed trends of the negative result – started as a whole South Caucasus region which in 2008, with Georgia war with Russia’s security regional and complicated intensified Moscow’s Then annexation 2014 dynamics. Crimea, territory, sovereign of Ukraine’s Azerbaijan’s willingness – at eagerness times Azerbaijan’s Independent media and civil society must be media and civil Independent and strengthened, supported and transparency for advocate capacity their to be involved to and accountability governance, of in policy reform. operation in intelligence and information in intelligence operation exchange and ISIS in Syria for fight going to Azerbaijanis actions by and in limiting the risk of terrorist Iraq, ISIS or Al-Qaeda-led cells in Azerbaijan. on critical energy co-operation NATO-based infrastructure staff- of co-operation, format existing The priority. a new level to should be upgraded based training, will but also Georgia, Azerbaijan, that so not only enhanced security protections. benefit from EU Special needs to step step to needs International co- International needs to revive dedicated dedicated revive to needs – to contribute to a peaceful to contribute – to

Azerbaijani government Azerbaijani OSCEMinsk Group

The and international via regional up co-operation body a co-ordination create to and frameworks, in the case of cybersecurity. and Azerbaijan. The role of the of role The and Azerbaijan. the South Caucasus and the to Representative crisis in Georgia including settlement of conflicts in the region, and the Nagorno-Karabakh in the Georgia crisis conflict – should be re-energised. efforts towards a framework agreement to the to agreement a framework towards efforts conflict, including adherence Nagorno-Karabakh the Helsinki based on Principles the Madrid to manipulation for the scope Final Act, reducing should Initial steps and misinterpretations. confidence-building measures, by be followed Armenia between swap including a prisoner The KEY RECOMMENDATIONS KEY support for peace negotiations, this would help to build trust in relation to one of to relation build trust in to help would this negotiations, peace support for conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh – the security most pressing challenges region’s the for international co-operation, including the opportunity for the OSCE Minsk Group opportunity OSCE Minsk Group the the for including co-operation, international for international with Along results. tangible with process peace a genuine re-start to regional threats, has forced Azerbaijan to re-consider its response mechanisms. In mechanisms. its response re-consider to Azerbaijan has forced threats, regional is needed. co-operation international greater regard, this with New Faces Old Challenges Perceptions: to several important achievements; however, the worsening security worsening the situation in however, achievements; important several to security national impact on the environment. a directl has had Caucasus South the with conflict, coupled Nagorno-Karabakh the of non-resolution the Specifically, Security sector reforms have found a new impetus in Azerbaijan since 2013, leading 2013, since impetus in Azerbaijan a new found have Security reforms sector Old Challenges with New Faces Old Challenges Zaur Shiriyev by AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: SECURITY AZERBAIJAN’S protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In Nagorno-Karabakh protracted of new has seen the emergence addition, Baku such as cybersecurity. threats, in the case of radical extremism evolving into into evolving extremism in the case of radical jihadi threat, and with the outbreak a serious the to military clashes in regard of serious Over the past decade, Azerbaijan’s perception perception Azerbaijan’s the past decade, Over multiple by has been shaped threats of security as new forms, gained have Old threats factors. New and Evolving Threats Threats New and Evolving 4

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces Baku inapolitically tough although spot, to itsnuclearprogramme halt official put Furthermore,Western engagementIranwith into theWestern sphere.political-security say, Georgia,country eagertoa move rapidly delicate and uncertaininvestments than, such asAzerbaijan,which are seen as more security umbrellato protect countries The West has not offered analternative involved. ofin theshape theUSandEU, hasbecomeless regionstrengthenedbeen has whilethe West, West.Consequently, Russia’s presence inthe increasedbetween antagonism Russia andthe Leadership changes are insufficient when it Religious Organisations, nothinghaschanged. head of theState Committee for Work with Despite thereplacementin July 2014 of the eliminate thespread ofreligious extremism. have failed to take practicaltoaction extremism,other government but institutions The security forces areof preventing capable illustrated by thecaseofjihadiextremism. the complex character of the threats, clearly institutions isalsorequired,and public given Collaboration between the security forces defined). ofresponsibilitiesthe allocation is notclearly security institutions (insome national cases, allocate responsibilities among different to address security vulnerabilities,and to strategic documentsneedtoupdated be emergenceThe security challenges. ofnew security environment, or to address the adjusted to reflect thechanges in theregional neither of these two documentshasbeen Doctrine, adoptedMilitary in2010. But Security Concept adopted in 2007 and the in two strategic documents,theNational Azerbaijan’s threat perception is set out require changes to strategic approaches. pose challenges, and a numberof capacity threats andthetransformation ofoldthreats the emergenceIn this of light, new security between Russia andTurkey. ongoing Syria crisis and attendant tensions adversely affected by thefalloutfrom the the wider security environment was also of thistrend isquestionable.Furthermore, positivethe sustainability sincethedeal, While Baku-Tehranrelations have turned violentlythat opposed the Iran nucleardeal. security co-operation withIsrael –acountry between Tehran andBaku was Azerbaijan’s mutuallysourceOne beneficial. oftensions the finalisationof deal hasbeen the nuclear of theCentre of Electronic Safety underthe a March 2013 decree assures the activities risks for e-governance activities. Although number ofcyberattacks isincreasing, with of theinformationwar with Armenia,the highwith levelof cyber threats”. 2016 findings,“Azerbaijan country isa Moreover, according to KasperskyLab’s full mandate to dealwiththisissue. There is a need for a single institutionwitha specific mandates areclearly not defined. extremism and terrorism; however, their main structures workingagainst religious and Ministry Security wereof National the forces under the Ministryof Internal Affairs been fragmentation.Until 2015, the police the security forces,Within there hasalso and turningto religious extremism. citizens from becomingalienated from society as wellas improved socialwelfare to prevent and policies to better educate thepopulation, is needed is the introduction of programmes comes to strengthening capacity. Instead, what news/95505.html cyber threats 1 of the ministry.opinion by Apublicpoll the fatalities,non-combatant damaged theimage 2012, reports of corruption, together with essential because,especially during2011- beyond rhetorical threats. Changewas realoffensive readiness in caseofwar,i.e. factorthe armedforces’ in to ability provide defence reform. Specifically, they are acritical areindicatorimportant an ofthestate of the MoDsincehisappointment changes at appointed inOctober 2013, and structural new Minister of Defence, Zakir Hasanov, was changes have alsobeenimplemented. The wellas replacing theleadership, structural Security Ministry.(MoD) andtheNational As recent years, namely theMinistry of Defence have takenin two place in institutions level,the institutional On major changes Changes andChallenges Current State Services: ofSecurity command structure isneeded. cybersecurity environment,better anda the resources to dealwithahigh-risk Technologies, thecentre doeshavenot Informationand Ministry ofCommunication Kaspersky: Azerbaijan with isacountry highlevel of , ABCNews, 18April2016,http://abc.az/eng/ 1 In light In 5 by Zaur Shiriyev ,

5 Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management And Reform And Management Sector Defence Azerbaijan: in the Ministry needs to be increased, and be increased, to in the Ministry needs be made accountable to to the MoD needs is no mechanism there at present parliament; oversight. parliamentary for 5 Briefing N°50, 2008 (page 12), Briefing, Europe Policy http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/ Crisis Group, International media/Files/europe/b50_azerbaijan___defence_sector_ management_and_reform.pdf enforcement structure and, to conform with conform and, to structure enforcement the authority of the Ministry standards, NATO must be Staff and the General Defence of NATO Azerbaijan’s in the future. separated Plans (IPAPs) Action Partnership Individual institutional build changes to these required the date, To sector. capability in the defence main challenge lies in the MoD’s responsibility reforms. implementing all the required for been partially have While the reforms be to MoD itself needs the implemented, the withdrawal of In the process reformed. the of the structure Staff from the General of full authorityshould be state in the first MoD, the management all of for in the MoD invested stage, the General In the final forces. armed a Joint Staff into be transformed Staff would of all armed and control with operational security forces. – armed groups of paramilitary The existence other Ministries, to that units answer elite and Affairs, such as the Ministry of Internal problems – causes Service Security the State among national security with co-ordination fragmentation. leading to structures, staff the number of civilian Furthermore, The second aspect entailed improvements in aspect The second entailed improvements especially co-operation, bilateral of the scope military from benefit more to with Turkey, an playing already was Turkey exercises. and education of in staff training role integral personnel, but 2013 since army Azerbaijani Previously, changes. been several have there were exercises joint army Azerbaijan-Turkey exercises similar army to in response enacted the Russia- or (with Russia Armenia by Organization Security Treaty led Collective contact the line of between close to (CSTO)) Armenian armed and the Azerbaijani a kind of political this was However, forces. than tactical, practical rather manoeuvre, the 2014 since In contrast, unit training. army from has expanded with Turkey joint training and special include air forces to land forces training. forces Partnership NATO’s of Within the framework a number of (PfP), programme Peace for at the structural been realised goals have was service security the border Notably, level. a law to a military structure changed from

4 2 ” Therefore, at the Therefore, 3 investigation into into investigation was changed from a changed from was Within the framework framework Within the

Peace programme, the programme, Peace enforcement structure, structure, enforcement border security service border separated in the future. in the future. separated and the authority of the and the authority of Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Defence Seven generals, including former Defence Minister Safar Safar Minister Defence former including generals, Seven "Trust towards Army - Caucasus Barometer Azerbaijan", Azerbaijan", - Caucasus Barometer Army towards "Trust Azerbaijan", - Caucasus Barometer Army toward "Trust “ the General Staff must be the General of NATO’s Partnership for for Partnership of NATO’s military structure to a law a law to military structure 4 of Azerbaijan armed forces the from reserve sent to Abiyev, http://en.apa.az/news/208426 Agency, (2014), APA The Caucasus Research Resource Centers (2011), http:// Centers Resource The Caucasus Research caucasusbarometer.org/en/cb2011az/TRUARMY/ 3 (2010) http:// Centers Resource The Caucasus Research caucasusbarometer.org/en/cb2010az/TRUARMY/ 2 hindering military reform and international and international military reform hindering goal Another with NATO. engagement, namely the public the armed image of improve to was forces. corruption – although the exact number of the exact – although corruption the MoD. not made public by was removals was which corruption, end to aim was The especially among command structure staff. command structure among especially generals, of a few It the removal included an internal following In terms of institutional of changes, the shift in In terms level, place at the structural momentum took forces through tactical trainings and more and more tactical trainings through forces with Azerbaijan’s military exercises frequent Turkey. military ally, end of 2013, the new Minister of Defence took took Defence of the new Minister 2013, end of staff redistribution directions: action in two in the quality of personnel; and improvements the capabilities the armed of and increasing Caucasus Barometer showed that in 2011 showed Barometer Caucasus army, the trusted the population of fully 44% 59% in 2010. from down 6

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces mod.gov.az/doktrina.htm of Defence oftheRepublic ofAzerbaijan, 2010,http://www. 7 az/azerbaijan/politics/2469304.html Azerbaijan 6 low level”. ratherthe currentat Armenia than is stage aggression against Azerbaijan by any state strategic papersstateof risk of“acts the that territories However,is thechief threat. both of Azerbaijan’scontinued occupation According to themilitarydoctrine, Armenia’s the ongoingNagorno-Karabakh conflict. The number one security challenge is DoctrineMilitary adopted by thegovernment. Security Conceptand such astheNational outlined indoctrinalstrategic documents, mechanisms for neutralising themhave been arechallenges interlinked.and Thechallenges Azerbaijan’s internaland external security Challenges Security Internal andExternal improved. with international bodies both need to be the structures to andtheirability co-operate security of institutions. The functionality The other problemof is capacity of the lack for examplein thecaseofcybersecurity. be prudent to create aco-ordination body, which results infragmentation.wouldIt institutions dealingwithparticularthreats, of one isco-operationthe lack between the Azerbaijan’s various securityinstitutions: trafficking. There are two major problems with comes to trans-boundary issues such asdrug operation increases effectiveness when it Similarly, bilateraland multilateral co- via regionaland international frameworks. threats,Baku needs to stepco-operation up the internationalnature ofthesecurity capacity buildingandstrengthening. Given for internationalsupport in institutional mandatesclarity. lack still There is a need Despite thesechanges,theministerial state securityservicewas lacking. foreign fighters in Syria andIraq,focus a the threat viarecruitment of Azerbaijanis as is evident theemergence with ofthejihadi Intelligence Service. the State Security Service and theForeign Ministry wasinto split two structures: In December 2015, Security the National State Security, Foreign Intelligence services created in Military Doctrineofthe RepublicMilitary ofAzerbaijan , Trend.Az, 14December2015,http://en.trend. 7

6 The latter’s importance , Ministry azerbaijan/#.V3q__5N969Y April 2015,http://muftah.org/geopolitical-ethnic-group- Geopolitical Intrigue 9 of-the-republic-of-azerbaijan/ azdoctrine.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/military-doctrine- Journalists' MilitaryResearch Center, 2012,https:// 8 has emerged. The Syrian conflicthasledto Since 2011, a newface of religious extremism posing ariskto internal security. terrorist activities inspired by Al-Qaeda, Karabakh).Some factions have committed the prevailing security challenge of Nagorno- a key threatover decade the past(alongside has replacedthat separatist movements as religiousBut extremism isanewphenomenon give voice to theethnicseparatists. backed civil society groups are deployed to information warfare, whereby intelligence- declined, replaced by amoretype of subtle on Azerbaijan.However, this support has waypressureadditional political ofputting this threat by supportingethnicgroups asa 1990s,the Russian intelligence exacerbated the border Russia. with is nosecret It in that in the northern regions of Azerbaijannear continue to poseamajorthreat, especially external powers, and separatisttendencies in the1990s, when separatism wasby fuelled of theNagorno-Karabakhbeginning conflict The threat of separatism datesto back the tendencies in different regions of Azerbaijan”. byof stirringup separatistforces ofseparatist Doctrine describes this asthe“continuation The another securityMilitary challenge. Separatism andreligious extremism constitute public dissatisfaction. in responsethe lineofcontact to growing military rhetoric accompanied by actionalong the government of Azerbaijanto intensify its – notleastafter April 2016 – might propel continued dearthofdiplomaticnegotiations seriousthe most sincethe1994 ceasefire. The of "mini-war" between the conflictparties – involvementand armaments indicated a kind casualties. The number of military personnel significantly more serious, with many more latest round of skirmishes in April2016 was skirmishes new come asnosurprise. The context,has emerged,normal" "new a where shot downin November thesameyear.this In increasing whenArmenian helicopter an was since the Augustescalating 2014 clashes, Azerbaijanand Armenia has beengradually The intensitybetween oftheconflict Military Doctrine of Military the Republic of Azerbaijan How anEthnic Group inAzerbaijan Became the Center of , Jardine, B.,&McCarrel, R.,Muftah,6 9 , "Doctrine" 8

7 by Zaur Shiriyev The economic The 12 , Hasanov, A. 2016, , Hasanov, Azerbaijan Economy: Act to Attract to Act Economy: Azerbaijan

needs foreign investment. This means the investment. needs foreign the establishment is prioritising government – with environment business of an attractive 12 2016, http://galtandtaggart.com/ Tbilisi: Bank of Georgia, dw/downloadReport.php?fl=326 to improve infrastructure and available oil available and infrastructure improve to growth following in the resulted revenues financing (investment) model in Azerbaijan: private the while the state, by provided was (acting as a projects implemented sector collapsed, as oil prices the client). However, unsustainable. became model challenges in security to rise gives decline in terms liquidity, is first The regards. two gas of ongoing of securing the development Natural Anatolian the Trans namely projects, Adriatic and Trans Gas Pipeline (TANAP) As a result, post-devaluation Pipeline (TAP). to sell shares some to has been required Baku companies. foreign public of challenge the risk is second The continue to if economic conditions unrest protests visible when was which decline, of Azerbaijan regions out in several broke a 2015, month after during January-February devaluation. the currency requires decline the economic Overcoming – of the non-oil sector and growth reform is the country’s goal. which longer-term the country however, In short term, the Another less vivid, but still serious, internal but internal still serious, less vivid, Another government the challenge security for decline, Economic stability. is internal oil, and the of price the lower by accelerated lead might public dissatisfaction resulting compounding the concerns instability, to in arrests since 2014 the increase by raised and campaigners, journalists, human rights of opposition figures. the Economic, in Challenges and Human Security Energy Dimensions has Azerbaijan One of the clear challenges for led which in oil prices, decline been the global The the local currency. of devaluation the to on based country’sdevelopment, economic When oil slowed. model, has the oil export per barrel, US$ 30 below to dropped prices The need the country. for catastrophic it was ,

11 Windows on Eurasia Windows , Solovyov, D. and Kelly, L., Kelly, and D. , Solovyov,

10 , 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia- Russia warns of retaliation as NATO plans more plans more as NATO of retaliation warns Russia

"ISIS Fighters Returning to Azerbaijan Seen Creating Creating Seen Azerbaijan to Returning "ISIS Fighters

deployments in Eastern Europe in Eastern deployments Reuters nato-divisions-idUSKCN0XV0TU 10 Goble, P., Baku," for Serious Problems 2015, http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/11/ isis-fighters-returning-to-azerbaijan.html 11 announced the deployment of new divisions new divisions of announced the deployment of the borders close to in military districts both will make which and Azerbaijan, Georgia vulnerable. and Tbilisi more Baku Secondly, as NATO considers strengthening its strengthening considers as NATO Secondly, protect better to military capability in order has Moscow Europe, its members in Eastern Caspian Littoral States. Under that declaration, that Under declaration, States. Caspian Littoral the Caspian Sea a make to agreed the states its Caspian used but non-military zone, Russia in 2015. in Syria flotilla in its intervention Caucasus represent another source of source another Caucasus represent violated In the Caspian Sea, Moscow concern. the of States of the Heads of the Declaration that could erupt into war, such as the Russia- war, that erupt could into militarisation conflict.Georgia Russia’s in the Caspian Sea and the North activities The external and internal threats to to threats and internal The external those to limited not are security Azerbaijan’s include threats Additional above. mentioned conflict the possibility of another regional the instability in the North Caucasus and Syria the instability and Syria Caucasus in the North of threats. a source will remain the coming years international co-operation/ international the coming years institutional engagement support and better and new threats, deter will to be necessary training/fighting abroad” as grounds for for as grounds abroad” training/fighting citizenship. losing Azerbaijani automatically that in likely it seems perspective, this From years. In December 2015, an amendment to an 2015, In amendment December to years. “participation added on Citizenship the Law and “military organisation” in a terrorist were introduced in March 2014, as a 2014, in March introduced were law and groups joining terrorist of which result is military forces participating in foreign 12 up to for imprisonment punishable by In trying to prevent Azerbaijanis from joining from Azerbaijanis prevent In trying to the criminal to changes the jihadi insurgency, data, up to 300 Azerbaijanis have joined ISIS, joined have Azerbaijanis 300 data, up to the real community believes but the expert higher. number is far groups is less than is less number of 100. The groups started in Syria fighters Azerbaijanis international with the growing increasing official to of ISIS. According prominence the recruitment of foreign fighters from the from fighters foreign of the recruitment Azerbaijanis the number of though Caucasus, terrorist joined Al-Qaeda-affiliated that have 8

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces protecting Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure. The security risks are open-endedinterms of foreign forces. attacks, or interventions or bysabotage there foris no contingencyplanning terrorist neutralising possible industrial threats, and limited to inthecaseof contingencyplanning co-operationbetween thethree states is infrastructure byit a commongoal, making tried to improve protections for energy Azerbaijan,that Georgia,and Turkey have security ontheir territories. Despite thefact threeall countries bear responsibility for to theBaku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, of eachhostcountry. For example,in regard energy infrastructure istheresponsibility long-termthe protection concernisthat of vulnerableto physicalcyberand threats.The to European markets, andispotentially delivers Azerbaijan’sgasand oil Caspian oil andgas projects. This infrastructure energyinfrastructure for multinational Azerbaijan,is thecritical the mostimportant termsIn oftheexistinginfrastructure in and to fuellong-term economicgrowth. competitiveness of private sector development attractingforeign investment to improve the the damagewrought by economic decline by sectorseconomy, ofthe reduceand could tobe applied could foreign investmentall in oil companiesinthe1990s. Suchamodel Sharing Agreements (PSAs) reached with bythe modelofProduction adapting foreign companies.Thisachievedcould be breakstax andreduced customs barriers for the SangachalTerminal. The other problem fields, crucial to energy production –suchas security services to protectoffshore energy The primary issue is the limitedof the capacity “

NATO co-operation to In order for Azerbaijan- has voiced itsdesire move forward, Baku on criticalenergy for co-operation infrastructure. ” sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/AZE.pdf Development Programme, 2015),http://hdr.undp.org/ Development Report: Azerbaijan 16 wordpress.com Defence StudiesInstitute, 2016,https://caspiandefense. 15 pipeline-in-turkeys-northeastern-kars-province dailysabah.com/nation/2015/08/24/pkk-terrorists-attack- Kars province 14 navy.htm http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/azerbaijan/ 13 this ranking,there have beensetbacks. Due category 78 out of – at 188 countries. Azerbaijanin thehigh development human development. TheUN’s2015 report placed The second dimension is thethreatto human plan. Atplan. present, there NATO hasbeenlittle engagementdevelopingin contingency such a needed, preferably through increased NATO BTCbe support will Institutional pipeline. toplan counter possible future damageto the shows boththenecessity of acontingency which repeated such attacks in 2015. attacked byterrorist thePKK organisation, in 2008, when thesection inTurkey was already beenthetargetof aterrorist attack pipeline entailsclearsecurity risks, having the countrywithGeorgiaand Turkey. This critical energy infrastructure, connecting The BTCof Azerbaijan’spart pipelineisalso devastating results. missiles at energy infrastructure – with Yerevancould potentially target ballistic brokebetween out AzerbaijanArmenia, and ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh ifwarconflict, since 2011.Furthermore, inregard to the co-operation withUSgovernment support its improvement through maritime security awareness (MDA)Sea, intheCaspian is theextremely limited maritimedomain up to 100withmore than150wounded. than 1,200 wounded. Civilian casualtiesare ceasefire agreementto isup more 1,000, with the number of soldier deaths since the 1994 ceasefire violationscausecasualties.Intotal, close to thelineof arecontact affected, and daily livessoldiers residents ofboth and living the ongoingNagorno-Karabakh The conflict. The first isthevulnerabilitystems that from threepose securityrisks. dimensions that concerns, for Azerbaijan,security has human Beyond economic and energy security exercises known as“Eternity”. engagement since the 2006 pipeline security

Briefing note for countries onthe 2015Human More than 2000injured ordeadinKarabakh war, PKK terrorists attack pipeline inTurkey’s northeastern Azerbaijan Naval Forces, Military , DailySabah, 24August 2015,http://www. (pages1-2),United Nations Globalsecurity.org, 16 13 Despite despite 14 Caspian 15 This

9 by Zaur Shiriyev (page Azerbaijan-2020: Azerbaijan-2020: , Trend.Az, 2014, http:// , Trend.Az, , it was declared that “in declared , it was – a similar position to – a similar position to 19

20 Some NGOs try to change Azerbaijan's constitutional constitutional Azerbaijan's Some NGOs try change to Future the for 2020: Outlook Azerbaijan

19 funding donor through system en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2334649.html 20 of of the Republic of the President 30), Official website (2012), http://www.president.az/files/future_ Azerbaijan, en.pdf that made it obligatory for foreign NGOs to to NGOs foreign for it obligatory that made chiefs, as deputy citizens appoint Azerbaijani The authorities offices. including in branch result would that this manoeuvre expected on Western reliant in independent NGOs the government. of criticism avoiding funders not sufficient, was “warning” this However, and it became clear that would these NGOs as usual. As a result, continue their work as "foreign branded NGOs were foreign a policy to moved authorities agents", and the form resources received who of controlling institutions Several organisations. Western as a local offices their close to forced were consequence. planned to the government earlier, Even This funders. the influence of foreign decrease goal in as a strategic described was aspiration in documents. Most recently, official strategic concept, the development Future the for Outlook important it is society, civil develop to order donor activity sector’s the private stimulate to in this an institutional level and achieve sphere.” Media freedom and the ability of civil society and the ability of civil Media freedom alarm. The is additional function cause for to the media. of control state is one of total trend space limited had already Independent media years but in recent in the country, operate to been have critics moderate the more even country with the an almost silenced, leaving media. pro-government wholly has activities society civil The scope for of a number For limited. become severely with sufficient NGOs independent years, in stimulating a role funding played Western public life that improved projects civic has This areas. in various and discourse NGOs were on since the laws disappeared and became starting in 2009, tightened, The in 2013-2014. evident increasingly NGO’s sees Western-funded now government support to want agents" who as "foreign groups opposition the authorities in Russia. by that taken of the parliament 2013, In December the NGO law changes to adopted Azerbaijan 17 , Coalson, The response of the EU and US to this of the EU and US to The response 18 Freedom House, 2015, https://freedomhouse.org/ Freedom Country report: Azerbaijan/ Freedom in the World in World in the Freedom Azerbaijan/ Country report: Baku Tightens Screws On Civil Society, Media On Civil Society, Screws Tightens Baku

rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-squeezes-civil-society- media/26574692.html 2015, report/freedom-world/2015/azerbaijan 18 http://www. 2014, Liberty, Europe/Radio Free R., Radio relations. 17 including Transparency International, were were International, including Transparency frozen. in bilateral a new low has led to crackdown the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty bureau. bureau. Liberty Europe/Radio Free the Radio that,to Prior the bank accounts of US-funded NGOs, such as IREX and National Democratic NGOs international and other Institute, Furthermore, in 2015 the OSCE Mission in 2015 Furthermore, along with closed down, was in Baku office 2015 report, Azerbaijan has retained its not- retained has Azerbaijan report, 2015 the years the past two status, and over free liberties and freedom in civil country’s scores further deteriorated. have of expression to operate in the country, and an increasing an increasing and country, in the operate to arrested were critics number of government House the Freedom to and jailed. According record has worsened with further restrictions with further restrictions has worsened record amendments New legislative society. on civil on the ability of NGOs placed restrictions country’s international image, resulting in new country’s image, resulting international with Western on relationships restrictions institutions. Since and international countries democratic poor country’sthe 2013, already A major setback in domestic politics has been in domestic A major setback of the country’s democratic the weakening damaged the has seriously This credentials. Society Freedom of Expression and the of Expression Freedom Threats Propaganda; of Threat and Civil Values Democratic to government is failing to uphold its democratic uphold its democratic to failing is government in the following highlighted commitments, as section. The third dimension of human of human dimension security that The third on in restrictions concern is the increase raises the In general, 2013. since speech of freedom systems have not registered sufficient not registered have systems development in meeting human progress goals. to the economic downturn, poverty has been has poverty downturn, economic the to tangible of a decade and, despite increasing education and healthcare the improvements, 10

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces its presence byonline media local openinga Since 2015, Russiachannels. hasincreased country from Iran andRussia-backed media propagandareach inthecountrythat the media helpedmitigateof external theimpact The other problem isindependent that financial needsunmet. barrier to further funding, andthis has left the However, theNGOlaw haserected a real NGOs forand development. building capacity was accompaniedbysupport tofinancial EU Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, programme in2009, and theEU-funded Easternthe EU’s of The launch Partnership declarations. This has beenmentioned in NATO’s summit support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Azerbaijanhas enjoyed itssymbolicpolitical and supportinthedefence-security sector, return, aswell co-operation astheAlliance’s missions, particularlyAfghanistan.in In contribution to peacekeeping theAlliance’s been instrumentalisedonthebasisofBaku’s Azerbaijan’s co-operationNATOwith has with NATO Enhanced Co-operation for EUfundingto NGOsto beunblocked. Azerbaijan.be particularlywill It important projects inseveralprivate universities in projects,the fundingofeducational including foreigndamaged of NGOshasalso financing during the pastthree years, on the limitation positive steps need to continuebecause, accounts of NGOs. These some bank local prisoners, political and theunfreezing of the rulings of15 peoplewidely regarded as through presidential pardonscourt and developments occurred, namely therelease From thebeginningof2016, afew positive remains fairly low. althoughof suchmediaoutlets thenumber in Azerbaijanhas significantly increased, this way,of Russian theimpact propaganda perceptionspublic damaging oftheWest.In Westernabout institutions.This is away of government, they often spread disinformation generally appearloyalto theAzerbaijan airwaves. While Russian-led media outlets radio Sputnik a broadcasting station on local Azerbaijan,Sputnik called outlet with along However,this momentumencountered had previously heldfairly juniorpositions. NATO- andTurkish-trained staff,peoplewho staff. More responsibilities were given to MoD, especiallycommand structure among sawappointment structural reforms inthe reformcame withthenewminister’s that forThe newmomentum NATO-backed defence Zakir Hasanov, in2013. of anewMinisterappointment of Defence, armed forces. This changed followingthe and corruption amongtheleadership of the reforms achieved, was dueto mismanagement NATO standards,the partial notwithstanding failure ofdefence reforms to fully conform to war. Additionally,the technical at level, the especially following theRussia-Georgia opposition to full-fledgedco-operation, partly dueto Baku’sRussia’s concerns about armed forces to NATOstandards. This was which had envisaged theupgrading ofthe and aspirations for defence sector reform, observed inAzerbaijan’s waningenthusiasm The deficiency of co-operation hasbeen justified, as Azerbaijanwould notincrease support for the Afghanistanmission could be found anequilibriummoving forward: Baku’s However, Azerbaijan’sleadership political region ingeneral,and in Georgia inparticular. forwardengagementAlliance’s inthe in the Evaluation of theNATO-Georgia and thisincreased theestablishment with engagement intheSouthCaucasus region, Russia was already mistrustfulof NATO’s towards Russia. with NATOalignment asamarkof hostility Moscowvolatilea at time. Moscow regarded involvementNATO with would riskangering the conflictinUkraine, fearingBaku’s that environmentthe chaotic in surroundedthat However,the table. Baku delayed itsresponse mission since 2002, a newmission was on Azerbaijanhad contributed peacekeeping a Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan, to which NATO’sInternational Security Assistance beyond defence reforms. After the end of can beseen in thedelaying of co-operation its relations withNATO. The effects ofthis to take alow-profile stancewithregard to rise to worries inofficial Baku, leadingit annexationMoscow’s and of Crimea gave betweenantagonism Russia andtheWest, The Ukraine crisis has causednew political barriers. Centre, perceived by Russiastep asa Joint Trainingand 11 by Zaur Shiriyev – without elements on human rights and – without elements on human rights democratisation. that was the EU’s expectation Meanwhile, the towards could progress Azerbaijan simultaneously while Association Agreement called agreement, the bilateral developing strategy, civil society has limited engagement engagement society has limited civil strategy, as civil- such issues, on NATO in Azerbaijan has no society military Civil partnership. of questioning and in the reinforcement role in Georgia because, unlike military structures the has classified and Armenia, Azerbaijan the government In addition, documents. IPAP the majority the functioning of has restricted society groups. of civil for EU Integration Perspectives in worsened have relations EU-Azerbaijan has been a mismatch and there years, recent co-operation. vis-à-vis mutualof expectations co- of developing a way The EU proposed Partnership the Eastern through operation an with the endpoint as the signing of initiative, includingAssociation Agreement, a Deep and agreement, Area Trade Free Comprehensive was in Baku the outset the reception but from a wanted authorities Azerbaijani cool. The points that envisaged accord special bilateral partnership – such as the energy of agreement First, while the PfP programme was a good a good was First,programme PfP the while out- now it is co-operation, for starting point challenges. The today’s to with regard dated new or a be updated, to needs programme should be introduced kind of programme and programme all participating states, for on a country- capacity should be improved specific basis. Turkey’s increase is to issue core second The support to authority it formal give capacity or in standards NATO path to Azerbaijan’s Based on past experience training. defence giving realities, current and considering – the authority of Azerbaijan - as an ally Turkey umbrella the NATO under lead on this to approach This effective. could be highly for areas; other in progress could stimulate that Azerbaijan expectation NATO’s example, is Review Defence will adopt a Strategic with the case also was This slowly. moving and National Security the Military Doctrine years. several by delayed Concept,were which on security co-operation NGOs' As for

21 Centre and Evaluation 22 Wales Summit Declaration issued by the Heads of State the Heads of State issued by Summit Declaration Wales Address by Mr. Elmar Mammadyarov, Minister of Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Mr. by Address

Atlantic Council in Wales, 2014, http://www.nato.int/cps/ Council in Wales, Atlantic en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm NATO RS Ministerial, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Affairs Ministry of Foreign Ministerial, RS NATO 2016, http://www.mfa.gov.az/en/ of Azerbaijan, Republic news/881/3666 22 participating in the meeting of the North and Government 21 at the of Azerbaijan, of the Republic Affairs Foreign sharing of some responsibilities. the PfP programme enhance what to In order required. things are two Azerbaijan, to offers authorities in Baku. Either way, this possibility this way, Either in Baku. authorities NATO visibility inside more Baku give would the involving issues, security on energy Joint Training Georgia an create in Tbilisi, one solution could be to Security Department at this training Energy the by and overseen administered centre, kinds of centres have been opened only in been opened only have kinds of centres partner to member countries as opposed the opening of the NATO- countries. But given Russia, the practicalities of establishing of the practicalities Russia, an ESCE should not pose major problems, these date that to notwithstanding the fact Common ground could be achieved by by could be achieved Common ground of Security Centre launching an Energy the political Beyond (ESCE). Excellence in particular actors, external of reaction energy security, concentrating on areas where where on areas concentrating security, energy can add value". NATO Summit declaration that emphasised "[the Summit declaration consult on and Alliance] will continue to to contribute our capacity to further develop countries, Azerbaijan is the only country is the only Azerbaijan countries, dealing with Nonetheless, the this issue. not does programme Peace for Partnership the Wales although co-operation, such cover In this respect, Baku has voiced its desire for for its desire has voiced Baku respect, In this infrastructure on critical energy co-operation partner NATO’s Among platforms. on many However, in order for Azerbaijan-NATO Azerbaijan-NATO for in order However, the parties forward, move to co-operation future for ground common find to need mission. the Afghanistan beyond engagement Afghanistan by providing troops, multimodal multimodal troops, providing by Afghanistan financial assistance. and training, transit, strengthened role in civilian missions in missions in civilian role strengthened officially Kabul, at Baku 2015 the end of Support Mission in Resolute joined NATO’s Baku was concerned with the security of its of security the with concerned was Baku co-operating already and so was borders own and drug-smuggling anti-terror to with regard Azerbaijan’s Due to Afghanistan. from threats the capacity of its peacekeeping mission. This mission. its peacekeeping of the capacity after mission a continuation entailed the of angle, the NATO beyond Moreover, 2014. 12

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces balance in itsrelationshipsbalance withArmeniaand its previousabandon position,which soughta a strong stanceonterritorial integrity, andto Essentially, official Baku wanted the EUto take an importantelementof Western support. of Crimea, when territorial integrity became especially inthewake of Russia’s annexation resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the EUwouldthat play abiggerrole in Azerbaijan’s side, there was anexpectation where officialBaku clarified its position. From Eastern Partnership Riga Summitin2015, developmentssingleas a process, the until Agreement. Brussels saw these two the Strategic Partnership and Modernisation Euronest. political reasons, to date Belarusdoesnottake partin Azerbaijan, Belarus,Georgia, Moldova andUkraine). For from theEastern Partnership countries (Armenia, European Parliament together withMembersofParliament inter-parliamentary forum comprisingMembersofthe 25 0316+0+DOC+PDF+V0//EN do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML+TA+P8-TA-2015- 2015, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc. (2015/2840(RSP)) 24 2015 Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume 12Issue207,13November Future Outlook 23 Azerbaijanof Federica Mogherini, the EU's the newdialoguewas marked by thevisit to and dialogue.The opening of consultations which has opened the way for a renewal of releaseprisoners, of a numberof political A gradual changehas been observed with the consultations onthebilateral agreement. Partnership programme, andpostponed draftingreviewon a legislation of its Eastern Euronest ParliamentaryAssembly, response, Azerbaijanwithdrew from the threatenedof sanctions.In thepossibility human rights andessentialfreedoms, on Azerbaijan’scalled authorities to respect Parliamentresolution inSeptember 2015 harsher.became language Notably, Europeana the otherside,EU’s On genuine dialogue. rights issueswere ignored,tolead ordidnot a forthe EU’scalls greater respect for human On the side of the government of Azerbaijan, The dissonancemore became pronounced. the coreat of thecurrentdissatisfaction”. human rights,freedoms andfundamental are areasdemocracy, ofdeep andsustainable therealityexpert, “disagreementsthat inthe according to oneAzerbaijani government pushed that relations into atense period was, the pastfew years,problem the fundamental Beyond the mismatch of expectations over Azerbaijan.

Euronest, which was constituted inMay 2011,isan European Parliament resolution onAzerbaijan The EU-Azerbaijan Relationship: Current Status and , Pashayeva, G.,Eurasia Daily Monitor, , European Parliament, 10September 25 and from and 24 and 23

conflict. InApril2016, thereconflict. was ashort-lived and frozen diplomatic negotiationsover the the renewedand conflict, clashes military Azerbaijanis theongoingNagorno-Karabakh The core of the security challenge facing Governments andCivil Society Priorities forNational agreement willremain elusive. regarding human rights issues, progress on an todialogue inresponse curtail to criticism If theauthoritiesinAzerbaijancontinue co-operation inAzerbaijan,levels”.at all civil society is a prominent feature of the EU's society, andreiterated that “engagement with position onsupportforrights human civil and the EUisnotgoingto stepfrom back its European Commission. She confirmed that Security Policy andVice-President ofthe High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Equal Rights andSelf-Determination ofPeoples. principles ofNon-UseForce, Territorial Integrity, andthe Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, basedontheHelsinki FinalAct were usedto propose anoutlinedraft settlementto the in November 2007inMadrid.TheBasicPrinciples Principles for asettlementto ArmeniaandAzerbaijan and Russia, presented apreliminary version oftheBasic 28 United States a co-chairmanshipconsistingofFrance, Russia andthe over Nagorno-Karabakh. TheMinskGroup isheadedby encourage apeaceful,negotiated resolution to theconflict 27 top_stories/2016/010316_visits-azerbaijan_en.htm External Action Service,2016,http://eeas.europa.eu/ 26 2016 hostilities –any steps initial shouldbe agreement. At thisstage–following theApril the way for a roadmap towardspeace a full misinterpretations. reducing thescope forand manipulation the Madrid Principles in clearer terms, agreementadherence shouldinclude to Dedicated efforts towards aframework negotiations. is limitedto initscapacity galvanise peace Group,inaction oftheMinsk andAzerbaijan Official Baku is highly criticalof the perceived bringing theparties to thenegotiatingtable. needs to takeconflict, anactive role in body for resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh clashes. The OSCE MinskGroup, amediation sentiments were further strengthened by the insteadbut enmity andnational mutual momentum indiplomaticnegotiations, pressure, thiscouldhave provided new outbreak of hostilities. Withinternational

Theministers oftheMinskGroup co-Chairs,US,France, TheOSCEMinskGroup was created in1992to Federica MogherinivisitsAzerbaijan 27

28 Only this can pave , European 26

13 by Zaur Shiriyev 2006, is staff-based training. This should This is staff-based training. 2006, so that not only a new level to be upgraded will benefit from but also Georgia, Azerbaijan, enhanced security protections. society civil of independent The operations restricted heavily been have organisations organisations the government.These by effective provide the capacity to lacked have a for policies security government of oversight engagement substantive long time. Therefore, is not sector in the security society of civil be on the table or in the short- going to medium-term. The third priority area is the Azerbaijani the Azerbaijani is area priority third The international with co-operation government’s critical energy institutions in protecting co-operation In direction, this infrastructure. and the US will on be based with NATO issues In this respect, two past experience. co- is maritime action. The first need urgent contribution Azerbaijan’s During operation. the US made until 2014 mission, ISAF the to improving to significant contributions However, capacity in this respect. Baku’s two the between political problems due to co- naval of the level 2014, since countries has Azerbaijan the US and between operation On the other hand, decreased. significantly its military capabilities has improved Russia action take to failure Sea. The Caspian in the countries has left other Russia deter to its has increased Russia while vulnerable, the political relationship capacities. However, a military makes and Moscow Baku between NATO-based unlikely. Russia by provocation infrastructure on critical energy co-operation The priority. a top should be considered in place since co-operation, of format existing This could be a This 29 , Report.az, 8 February 2016, http:// 8 February , Report.az, side have repeatedly called for a called for repeatedly have side Azerbaijani hostages in Armenia will be able contact will be able contact in Armenia hostages Azerbaijani

29 via Skype families their report.az/en/nagorno-karabakh/azerbaijani-hostages-in- armenia-to-contact-their-families-via-skype/ or Al-Qaeda-led cells in Azerbaijan. or Al-Qaeda-led cells in Azerbaijan. and authenticity. International co-operation co-operation International and authenticity. Azerbaijanis in preventing could be effective and in the future, joining the ISIS camp from ISIS actions by terrorist of in limiting the risk led or Russian-enforced. As international As international Russian-enforced. led or and intelligence of co-operation platforms lack reliability they exchange, information government’s engagement with international with international engagement government’s the coalitions date, ISIS. To institutions fighting Saudi- been either have Baku to offered more of a spokesperson than a hands-on a spokesperson of more mediator. potential challenge the Azerbaijani is key second The added value. To date, despite the mandate, the the mandate, despite date, To value. added a limited has played Special Representative the conflict, of seeming often in resolution role resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of the Nagorno-Karabakh resolution the Special of the role Re-energising resolution. could have in the process Representative reinforce activity at new levels. The EU, while while EU, The at new levels. activity reinforce in the Minsk France by represented informally a Special having despite is inactive Group, in be involved to mandated Representative the Minsk Group co-Chairs to bring the to co-Chairs the Minsk Group the negotiating table; however, to sides should the EU, institutions, including other Azerbaijani government has been to resolve resolve has been to government Azerbaijani diplomatic negotiations. the conflict through lies with In the responsibility this respect, November 2013, there was no official meeting was there 2013, November countries. of the two the presidents between met five presidents the two Subsequently, of the The strategy 2016. May to times prior the lack of official negotiations between negotiations between the lack official of stagnant and Armenia, since Azerbaijan January and January 2012 Between 2011. useful confidence-building measure. useful confidence-building account that the into It should be taken of consequence a direct is military activity significant public anger in Azerbaijan. The significant public in Azerbaijan. anger Azerbaijani no effect. to swap prisoner the two Azerbaijanis (Dilgam Asgarov Asgarov (Dilgam Azerbaijanis the two been in have who and Shahbaz Guliyev) of a source years, than two more jail for few territories is not going to be possible be is not going to territories few comprehensive a of the framework outside has government Azerbaijan The agreement. – including of captives release the sought followed by confidence-building measures, measures, confidence-building by followed alarming the lack trust between of given a of even of return The prospect parties. 14

AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY PERCEPTIONS: Old Challenges with New Faces .