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An Analysis of Football Management Trends 1992 – 2005 in All Four Divisions

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An Analysis of Football Management Trends 1992 – 2005 in All Four Divisions An Analysis of Football Management Trends 1992 – 2005 in all Four Divisions Dr Susan Bridgewater 1 An Analysis of Football Management Trends 1992 – 2005 in all Four Divisions Index Page Number 1. Introduction 1 2. Key Management Trends 2 3. Management Dismissals by League 5 4. Management Dismissals by Month 7 5. Management Merry-go-Round? 8 6. Management Progressions 9 7. Length of Management Tenure 10 8. Measuring Management Performance 12 9. Top Win Percentages 13 10. Top Turnarounds 14 11. What helps managers to achieve these results? 15 12. Context Influences and Success 15 13. Squad Quality and Management Success 16 14. Stability and Performance 18 15. Manager Characteristics and Success 20 16. Conclusions 21 17. Future Research 21 18. Appendices 22 2 An Analysis of Football Management Trends 1992 – 2005 in all Four Divisions Dr Susan Bridgewater 1. Introduction The following analysis is based on managers of clubs in Leagues 1 to 4 during the period from the formation of the Premiership in the 1992-1993 season to date. Analysis excludes Caretaker Managers, Directors of Football (e.g: Zajec at Portsmouth) and others who may temporarily have been in charge but were not officially listed by clubs as manager. The report begins by presenting the key trends in the Management data from 1992/1993 to date to identify patterns and implications. Data are split by type of change (dismissal/resignation), by league and by month to identify key issues. The report discusses whether the data support the argument that there is a football Management merry-go-round in which managers recycle into other Management posts. It then presents the first stage of an ongoing research study of Management success for football managers to examine initial findings on the relationship between squad quality, level of Management experience, coaching and management qualifications and other factors which may influence success. The total number of Management changes during the period from 1992/1993 to date is 678. Of these: • 94 are currently in post1 • 48 have resigned (this excludes mutual consent which is counted as a dismissal but includes resignations for personal, advancement or other reasons) • There have been 536 dismissals. The changes of management have involved 360 different managers. 1 This includes managers at Hereford at which the club was relegated but the manager remains in post and Carlisle where Paul Simpson remained in post during relegation and promotion back into the league. 3 2. Key Management Trends: What do the data tell us? Table 1: Manager Dismissals and Resignations (by Season 1992 – 2005) Season2 Manager Manager Average Tenure Average Win % of Dismissals Resignations Dismissed Managers in Dismissed Years Managers 1992-1993 31 2 2.72 34.59% 1993-1994 31 4 2.61 33.19% 1994-1995 52 7 2.28 31.35% 1995-1996 33 3 2.38 32.51% 1996-1997 45 4 1.96 34.80% 1997-1998 44 3 1.51 32.28% 1998-1999 36 3 2.27 35.24% 1999-2000 38 1 1.98 33.48% 2000-2001 45 4 2.20 34.24% 2001-2002 56 6 1.98 33.64% 2002-2003 31 2 1.61 30.60% 2003-2004 42 4 2.25 33.09% 2004-2005 39 3 1.85 33.37% 2005 to date 133 2 1.72 31.15% Totals 536 48 2.19 years 33.94% The data show an upwards trend in manager dismissals between 1992- 1993 and 2001-2002. After the peak in 2001-02, the rate of dismissals appears to have fallen back slightly though remaining on average slightly above the 1992-93 levels. The trend line for dismissals is shown in the top of the two black lines on Graph 1. There is no clear relationship between the rise in dismissals and the performance level of managers. The percentage of games won by the managers dismissed did not decline during the same period. In fact, although there are peaks and troughs, the overall trend (the lower black line which shows the trend for win percentages of managers) shows no significant difference in Management performance than there was in 1992-1993, yet more managers are now dismissed. 2 Season taken from August to following July (i.e includes following close season). 3 Steve Claridge included in 2005-06, includes Atkins (Bristol Rovers), Barrow (Bury), Williamson (Plymouth), Palmer (Mansfield), King (Swindon), Tinnion (Bristol City), Hendry (Blackpool), Cooper (Gillingham), Perrin (Portsmouth), Watkiss (Kidderminster), Harford (Rotherham), Lee (Millwall) and Turner (Stockport). Excludes Gary Johnson (Yeovil) and Harry Redknapp (Southampton) who resigned to move clubs. 4 Graph 1 3. Management Dismissals by League Management dismissals are analysed by league, to determine whether the trends for overall dismissals are split equally across leagues, or affect some leagues more than others. Data from 1992-1993 are compared with recent seasons from 2000-2001 to date. League 1992-1993 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 1 5 7 10 5 6 5 2 9 15 11 7 9 17 3 8 16 11 8 15 11 44 11 13 23 12 13 11 Table 3: Number of Managers Dismissed by League 1992-1993 compared with 2000-2001 to date 4 For ease the leagues are labelled here 1 – 4 to allow for comparability across seasons 5 Graph 2: Manager Dismissals by League The data in Table 3 and Graph 2 show us that the proportion of managers dismissed in different leagues varies season to season. The rate of dismissals in the Premiership is lowest throughout although in some seasons (such as 2001-2002 the difference is marginal whilst in others there is a larger difference in dismissal rate. In 1992-1993, Premiership dismissals were the lowest, but the two middle division are close (8 and 9 managers dismissed respectively) and the lowest league has the highest Management casualties. 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 show a sharp rise in dismissals outside the Premiership. 2000-2001 shows a much larger rise in the rate of dismissals of managers in the middle two divisions and a lower proportional increase in the Premiership and lowest division. During the 2001-2002, the deepening financial crisis in football placed particular pressure on the 72 clubs below the Premiership and culminated, in March 2002, in the collapse of ITV digital. The resultant spate of clubs going into administration may explain the increase in dismissals outside the Premiership. The number of dismissals dips as the crisis settled but remains higher for the three lower leagues than for the Premiership. 2004-2005 saw a particular increase in dismissals in the Championship. 6 4. Management Dismissals by Month To gain more insights into the trends, dismissals were analysed by month. Table 4: Time of Year when Managers Dismissed 1992-1993 to date Season Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Total 92-93 0 2 2 1 1 3 4 1 3 5 3 6 31 93-94 2 3 4 3 5 4 1 3 1 2 3 0 31 94-95 3 6 1 8 4 3 3 5 9 4 6 0 52 95-96 0 2 5 3 4 5 4 2 2 4 1 1 33 96-97 5 4 3 6 3 3 5 2 1 8 3 2 45 97-98 2 2 3 4 3 2 4 5 3 8 6 2 44 98-99 3 4 3 4 1 1 0 2 3 7 4 4 36 99-00 3 2 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 5 3 1 38 00-01 5 4 5 4 4 4 6 5 1 3 2 3 45 01-02 2 6 13 2 4 4 3 4 8 4 4 2 56 02-03 1 1 7 1 1 2 2 5 4 5 2 0 31 03-04 2 5 3 3 3 3 4 7 3 4 5 0 42 04-05 4 1 4 8 4 4 1 2 2 6 2 1 39 05 to 15 6 0 2 3 13 date 32 49 57 53 43 41 42 47 42 66 43 21 536 Overall, the pattern of manager dismissals shows two peaks. There is a peak in May/June, at the end of the season, and a second peak in October/November. The pattern was examined over time to see if it has changed and this shows that the peak in October/November did not exist in the earlier years (only 1992-93 is shown for clarity) but emerges clearly in the last three seasons (yellow, green and blue lines). The October/November peak was at its highest in 2002-03, somewhat lower in 2003- 2004. Although pronounced in 2004-2005, it has moved to being later. This coincides with the introduction of the transfer window in the Premiership. It does not only affect managers in the Premiership and suggests that Chairmen now make decisions about the future of managers with an eye to whether they are happy to let the current manager make buying and selling decisions during the transfer window. 2005-2006 season is not included in the above graph but after 6 dismissals in September, 0 in October and recently two in late November is much less pronounced. Alternatively it could be following the trend of happening progressively nearer to the transfer window. The next few weeks will tell. 5 Claridge right on border between seasons and counted as August of this season 7 Graph 3: Management Dismissals by Month 5. Management Merry-Go-Round? It is popularly supposed that managers continue to recycle into further football manager jobs even when they are dismissed/resign.
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