A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

An integrated impact assessment

Geoff Green · Bernard Stafford · Paul Pugh A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Foreword Acknowledgements Executive summary Introduction Methodology Neighbourhood profile Housing Economy Education Environment Health Security Summary A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Foreword

The Local Strategic Partnership works on the principle that better results can be acheived for our community when public, private and third sector organisations work together, supporting and challenging each other and recognising that the challenges we face are all interlinked.

By tackling worklessness we can have a very real impact on crime and, by working together to improve decent housing we have an impact on the health of many people in our commu- nity. Fighting the causes of poor health can have a dramatic impact on the education acheive- ments of our young people.

This Integrated Impact Assessment for East Marsh provides a great deal of clear evidence and gives us invaluable information to guide where our public bodies can direct their resources and achieve the most positive impact for the people they serve. Making sure public money is used efficiently has never been more in focus and this assessment gives us the opportunity to do just that.

I am also delighted that North East Lincolnshire is leading the UK on Integrated Area Assessments.

Mark Webb Chair of North East Lincolnshire Local Strategic Partnership

Authors of this report

Professor Geoff Green Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research Sheffield Hallam University

Dr. Bernard Stafford York Research Partnership · Economics Department University of York

Designer of this report

Paul Pugh ppdesign

Cover photograph © Thomas Ley A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Acknowledgements

This study was inspired by Cynthia Manson-Siddle. Now Deputy Director into the Contextual Added Value of schools and introduced Prof. David of Public Health in North East Lincolnshire, she pioneered Integrated Jesson of York University to provide his expertise. Information on Impact Assessment within the Yorkshire and Humber Region and has Healthy Schools was provided by Matt Sinclair, Director of Co-Curriculum promoted this protocol in North East Lincolnshire (NEL). Madeline Bell, at Havelock Academy. Thanks also to Heather Hawkes, Head of Deputy Director of Strategic Housing then seized the opportunity to Weelsby Primary School, for confirmation of school attainment. apply IIA to the East Marsh Neighbourhood Renewal Area in Grimsby. Commissioned jointly by North East Lincolnshire Council (NELC) and the Cynthia Manson-Siddle opened many doors in the NHS Care Trust Plus. local NHS Care Trust Plus, the report itself is a collective effort, admin- Danny O’Toole, Programme Coordinator for the Specialist Health istratively supported by Margaret Higgins and Lynne Mallinson and Promotion Service, provided local data on coronary heart disease and drawing on the expertise of many officials. Steering group members scientific evidence on disease prevention. Jeremy Baskett, Assistant included Lisa King, Urban Regeneration and Renaissance Manager and Director of Community Involvement and Engagement, provided informa- Tony Neul, Environmental Policy Manager (both NELC) Andy Goudie, tion on Older Peoples Collaboratives, to promote health and prevent Executive Director of the Grimsby Institute and Inspector Terry Ward disease in East Marsh. from Humberside Police. Spencer Hunt, Safer Communities Service Manager provided key docu- Claire Wollington, Regeneration Officer for Shoreline Housing ments and great insights into crime and crime reduction in NEL and Partnership and Yvonne Lowe, Director of Operations for Havelok opened doors to Humberside Police. Beyond the call of duty, Inspector Homes, contributed their great knowledge and expertise both on the Ed Cook, Intelligence Manager for A Division shared crime data and a condition of the social housing stock and on wider regeneration issues. thoughtful overview of causes and remedies for this key challenge in Philip Thames and Lucy Hudson, Shoreline Neighbourhood Investment East Marsh. He commissioned a special set of data for the East Marsh Managers, supplied housing data and insights on security and safety NRA and a succinct report was provided by Intelligence Analyst, Louise issues. Jacqui Wells., Housing Renewal Manager with NELC, provided Thickett. Insights into the wider determinants of crime were provided by an overview of the private housing sector and the various enforcement John Willis, Neighbourhood Community Safety Officer with Humberside measures against slum landlords. Police, Penny Humphries, NELC’s Street Warden Manager and John Ellis OBE, Shalom Youth Centre Manager. Sue Pearson, NEL’s Environmental Martin Boyers, Chief Executive of Grimsby Fish Market and Councillor Management Officer, highlighted the security aspects of her improve- Steve Norton, Chief Executive of Grimsby Fish Merchants Association, ments to Grant Thorold Park. gave an overview of the local economy, and in particular, prospects for the Grimsby Fish Dock Area abutting East Marsh. Liz Hutchinson and Thanks also to the CRESR data team led by Christina Beatty. Research David Tinsley provided information on Job Centre Plus and Colin Bulger, Associates Mike Foden and Ian Wilson supplied official economic and NELC Assistant Chief Executive, supplied key documents and insights on social data and assisted greatly interpreting the results of the East economic regeneration. Annie Derby, OBE, highlighted the intermediate Marsh Community Survey. Administrators Emma Smith and Sarah Ward labour market promoted by the NHS and Dr. David Usher from Leeds inputted this data from resident questionnaires and obtained data on Metropolitan University provided a strategic context for regional property from the Land Registry. Paul Truin and INTERVIEW led by Kaye economic development. Bruce, obtained an exceptionally high response rate from the resident survey. Izabella Jagiello and Lisa Atkinson, Senior Business Anita Havercroft, Performance Information Analyst with NELC Childrens Development Managers with Experian, secured permission for the Services, interpreted official schools attainment and achievement statis- Mosaic images. Finally we worked with designer Paul Pugh to make the tics; Angela Tunstall, Team Leader for School Admissions, confirmed report as accessible as possible to a wider audience. As joint authors of catchment areas for local schools and Stuart Powell provided insights the study we take responsibility for any errors or omissions.

Geoff Green Professor of Urban Policy, Centre for Regional and Economic Research, Sheffield Hallam University. Dr Bernard Stafford Director of the York Research Partnership, Depart of Economics, University of York. August 2009 A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Executive summary

Investment t n n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n E E t n n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n E E

Impact

Recommendation 1 Recommendation 2 Integrated Impact Assessment pioneered in North East Designation of a Neighbourhood Renewal Area creates an Lincolnshire should lead to a holistic approach to opportunity for optimising investment to enhance the lives sustainable regeneration of the East Marsh Neighbourhood of East Marsh residents. Renewal Area. On nearly every dimension of life, the East Marsh neighbourhood is on Key messages below summarise our assessment of 6 domains of life a downward trajectory. Many partner agencies are working together to in East Marsh. We highlight how investment in each domain impacts reverse the decline. In an era of budget restrictions, targeted invest- on the others. We recommend that the impressive NEL partnerships ment in security measures, environmental improvements and “soft” utilise this evidence in order to enhance the initial building’s-led labour market skills are likely to have most impact in the short term. approach to NRA regeneration.

Key messages

Housing Environment G An increasing proportion of the terraced housing stock in East G Past programmes and future plans for East Marsh recognise Marsh is privately rented and in poor condition that investment in the environment has a significant impact G Investing in measures to improve the warmth, safety and on the housing market, residents' security and their health security of the housing stock in East Marsh will improve the health and well-being of residents Health G Care Trust Plus, an innovative partnership between the Economy Council and NHS, is well positioned to improve lifestyles and G Unemployment in parts of East Marsh ranks almost the worst the wider determinants of health in England G Interventions to improve health early in the course of life are G Evidence endorses the NEL Economic Well-Being Strategy of cost-effective in enhancing economic performance and targeting a combination of health promotion and reducing dependency in later life interventions to improve labour market matching Security Education G East Marsh NRA has persistently high levels of crime and G High levels of deprivation in East Marsh help explain below disorder which damage the health and well-being of residents average performance of local schools G Working through the Community Safety Partnership, G Sure Start and the Healthy Schools programme promote Humberside Police have pinpointed the pattern of crime and health and life skills, aiming to improve social and economic have a lead role in improving safety and security well-being in adults A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Introduction

Key message: This Integrated Impact Assessment further develops the sustainability tool promoted by the Local Strategic Partnership of North East Lincolnshire

1 Strategic context up a baseline picture of East Marsh, with a special focus on the dynamic impact of housing on the heath of residents. Evidence is Commissioned jointly by North East Lincolnshire Council and the Care drawn from a new residents’ survey (and the survey by consultants Trust Plus, this Integrated Impact Assessment (IIA) is aligned with cpc), official statistics and intelligence from professionals and strategies designed to promote sustainable development in Grimsby. managers working hard for the future of East Marsh. The Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) places such a high value on sustainability that a third of ‘Shaping the Future’ – its key community strategy 1 – is devoted to a framework for appraising how public and Integrated Impact Assessment private investment will achieve this aim. The second component of the research is the appraisal stage of an inte- grated impact assessment of policies, services and programmes SocialSocial Community assets capitalcapital designed ensure East Marsh has Figure 1 a sustainable future. In 2008 a HumanHuman Sustainability is about more than the capitalcapital community well-being team of professionals used the global environment highlighted by the Rio BenefitsBenefits IIA appraisal tool to undertake an Earth Summit organised by the United FixedFixed regional development initial scoping. We have worked capitalcapital Nations in 1992. The LSP Strategy is with them on a full appraisal. designed to integrate social, environmental EnvirEnvironmentalonmental capital and economic development, principally in capital Ref: World Bank Six key domains (figure 2) were the whole of NE Lincolnshire but also in selected by the steering group from the 15 neighbourhoods. We adopt an ‘asset & flow’ model derived from the covered by the tool. Our approach is ‘dynamic’ appraisal or accounting. World Bank (figure 1), of how to sustain neighbourhood well-being by Whereas in the past, departments and agencies may have operated in enhancing community assets – environmental, social and economic. silos, with narrow targets and ring fenced budgets, now they take a wider perspective. Our Figure 2 objective is to assess the Baseline research Conventional IIA ‘Silo’ Accounting ‘Dynamic’ Accounting wider impact of invest-

Our report focuses on the t t ments or programmes. n n n n y y e e y y g g o o t t h h i i i i m m n n t t m m t t i i l l renewal area of East Marsh. r r Though housing invest- o o n n s s a a u u a a n n u u c c o o c c e e r r o o u u o o i i e e H H c An intersectoral steering group Invest c v v

d d ment will have a major S S H H E E n n E E has guided the work. The E E impact on housing research team (from the incomes, there should be Centre for Regional Economic a positive impact on t and Social Research and the t health, economic devel- n n n n y y e e y y g g o o t t h h i i i i m m n n t t m m t Economics Department at the t i i l l opment, the environ- r Impact r o o n n s s a a u u a a n n u u c c o o c c e e r r o o u u o o i i e University of York) has built e H H c c ment and security. v v d d S S H H E E n n E E E E

1 Shaping the Future: North East Lincolnshire Community Strategy. North East Lincs Local Strategic Partnership. 2003. Introduction

Grimsby’s famous Dock Tower symbolises the declining fortunes of the East Marsh neigh- bourhood. Built in the 19th century at the north eastern tip of what is now East Marsh Ward, the tower serviced the biggest fishing 2 port in Europe. Now with the decline of the fish catching industry, both tower and neigh- bourhood are largely dysfunctional to the town’s new economy.

Neighbourhood focus

The focus of our study is the grid iron of terraced property highlighted on the map of East Marsh NRA East Marsh in pink and bounded in red. The streets now contain 3962 of the 5440 dwellings in East Marsh Ward and an esti- mated 75% of the population. These tradi- tional terraces contain probably the poorest dwellings and most deprived community in Grimsby. East Marsh Ward and Neighbourhood Renewal Area

Neighbourhood Renewal Area Plans and strategies Since publication of The Joint Housing strategy for North East and Shoreline Housing Partnership has pioneered investment plans for East North Lincolnshire, 2 North East Lincolnshire Council (NELC) has Marsh. As a new registered social landlord since 2005, it has been assumed greater responsibility for an intersectoral approach to the responsible for the majority of dwellings which replaced the meanest revitalisation of the neighbourhood of traditional terraced houses. An terraces in the council’s post-war slum clearance programme. Its intensive process of fact-finding property surveys by Capital Project Neighbourhood Investment Plan (2004) for the high rise properties Consultancy Ltd (CPC) 3 and neighbourhood consultation with resi- which dominate the western skyline of East Marsh was followed by a dents built up to the declaration of a Neighbourhood Renewal Area in Neighbourhood Investment Plan for a wider area (2007) and then in 2008. A March 2008 NELC Cabinet report set out a strategy and 2008 by a Neighbourhood Investment Plan for the new Humber action plan. £8 million of public funds is allocated for the clearance of Neighbourhood which extends beyond East Marsh Ward. 1 100 properties in Guildford Street and the regeneration of the whole area, including £210k for environmental improvements and £90k for security measures.

The intersectoral steering group for the East Marsh Project – called Project Team – Fresh Start East Marsh – is responsible for developing 1 North East Lincolnshire Strategic Partnership (2008) Neighbourhood Investment Plan, Shaping the Future. Humber Neighbourhood. Shoreline Housing Partnership. and implementing the action plan. Residents can influence spending 2 North East and North Lincolnshire. (2006) Building a Better Future: The Joint Housing priorities via East Marsh Involve. Strategy for North East and North Lincolnshire, 2007–2010. 3 CPC (2007) East Marsh Neighbourhood Renewal Assessment (Draft NRA report, : Revision 4, Volume 1). Capital Project Consultancy Ltd. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Methodology

Key message: Data from four different sources is ‘triangulated’ to build up a comprehensive picture of East Marsh Neighbourhood Renewal Area

3 Methodology is the science of method, linking how we collect data Scientific evidence with our concept of how a neighbourhood works. Our hypothesis is developed via the two related models shown in the introduction – for At the beginning of each of the sections covering each domain we high- sustainable community development and Integrated Impact light the pathways from investment to impact. We do not have to Assessment of six domains of community life. Then we used four conduct more surveys to establish these links. Our method is to ‘plug- methods to collect and analyse data. in’ evidence from expert reports and peer-reviewed scientific studies. For example it is already proven that exercise reduces the risk of coro- nary heart disease and there is evidence that investment to make Official National Statistics parks and spaces secure and user-friendly will encourage more resi- dents to take exercise as part of their everyday lives. Some locally relevant data – for example on school performance and the labour market – are obtained from national data sources such as the Department of Children, Schools and Families, NOMIS and the Resident survey Land Registry. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) provides local data on deprivation. We show in our introductory neighbourhood We conducted an additional survey of a representative sample of 223 profile how their indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) match the six residents in late 2008/early 2009, for three reasons. First we wished key domains identified by the project steering group. Policy-makers in to compare status, opinion and attitudes (such as fear of crime) with North East Lincolnshire are familiar with the IMD because of the head- national benchmarks. Second, we expose links between different line crime statistic showing a part of East Marsh as worst in England. aspects of resident’s lives (such as health and fear of crime). By inter- We have collected data on all six domains for each of the seven sub- viewing a sample of household members in the properties surveyed by areas (‘Super-Output Areas’ in official jargon) which broadly constitute CPC we can estimate the impact of poor housing conditions. Third, the Neighbourhood Renewal Area of 4000 residential properties. these baseline results will be compared with those from a follow- through survey after the NRA has delivered improvements.

Local data We were careful both to (i) secure a representative sample of residents and (ii) give greater weight to households in properties likely to benefit Addresses and postcodes of residential property in the NRA were most from NRA improvements. We targeted 301 of the 420 dwellings provided by Strategic Housing and Safer Communities, part of the surveyed by CPC, including 180 (61.5%) non-decent and 121 Community Care Directorate. Some locally relevant data – for example (38.5%) randomly selected decent dwellings. Our interviewers on school performance and the labour market – are obtained from recorded 20 vacant properties; were refused interviews by 4 house- national data sources such as ONS, NOMIS and the Land Registry. For holds and secured completed questionnaires from one adult member of housing this is supplemented by the local stock condition survey of 420 223 households; a response rate of 79.4% of occupied properties. representative properties (of 3962 in the NRA) undertaken by CPC in Respondents split 49.3% male and 50.7% female and were drawn 2007. The NHS Care Trust Plus supplied local data on illness and death, from 36 streets containing 92% of all households, with more inter- from coronary heart disease for example. The Grimsby Division of views in populous streets. Results were adjusted to account for any Humberside Police extracted crime statistics from its Joint Strategic differences between respondents from decent compared with non- Intelligence Assessment. All these facts and figures were related to decent properties, though these tended not to be significant. policy and strategy documents supplied by NELC and partners. Neighbourhood profile

Key message 1: Official statistics reveal East Marsh is one of the most deprived neighbourhoods in the whole of England Key message 2: Relative to the rest of England, East Marsh is becoming more deprived, mainly because of crime 4 East Marsh has the worst crime record in England. So run newspaper Relative deprivation headlines. More precisely, government statistics reveal that of 32,832 sub-areas constituting the whole nation, a group of streets in the How does East Marsh compare with the rest of England? The headline Neighbourhood Renewal Area (NRA) was number one for crime ‘depri- is that all of the NRA’s seven sub-areas- each containing a few streets vation’ in 2007. – are among the worst in the country; Figure 3: Components of deprivation in 2007 that is high or very high on the Geometry of deprivation Income composite IMD. There is a gradient 100000 running from the highly deprived north North North West Government statistics provide an insight into the 10000 to the slightly less wider dynamic of East Marsh deprived south. 1000 Employment – recent trends and compar- Living environ ison with the rest of England. 100 The sub-areas in (i) The six domains chosen for our South 10 the North West of the NRA, centred impact assessment are closely matched by on Guildford Street (ii) North and 1 the components of the (iii) North East Health/ UK government’s Index ranked respec- Crime Disability of Multiple Deprivation tively 59, 61 (IMD). 2 and 111 putting them in the most deprived 1% of sub-areas nationally. The seven components of the IMD are shown as Three sub-areas in the Mid, South West and points on the ‘spider’ figure 3. Income and the South East of the NRA were Housing/ South East Education/ employment match our economic domain; Services Skills ranked between 1387 and 3067, crime matches security; education and putting them within the most health are the same. The living environment covers two of our deprived 10%. The least deprived sub-area to the South, centred on domains, both the indoor (housing) and outdoor environment. Barriers Wheelsby Street South is ranked 6406, and within the most deprived to Housing and Services are defined by access, both financial and 20% areas nationally. distance to schools and supermarkets. 3 Only on access to housing and services do all the sub-areas perform For easy illustration, figure 3 compares the pattern of deprivation well (ranked between 29,000 and 31,000 on the deprivation index). between just four of the seven sub-areas of the NRA. Sub-area compo- This reflects very low house prices – averaging less than £45,000 in nents closest to the centre have higher deprivation scores. 4 Guildford Street at the height of the property boom in 2007 – and proximity to doctor’s surgeries and the Freeman Street shopping 1 The Government Office of National Statistics has divided the country into a mosaic of 32, 842 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LLSOAs). Seven of these cover the Neighbourhood centre. There is debate about whether these are really indicators of Renewal Area – four entirely within the boundary and three straddling the northern and deprivation as commonly understood. western boundary with the ‘High Rise Neighbourhood of predominantly social housing. 2 Department of Communities and Local Government. The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/communities/pdf/733520.pdf 3 A technical guide to the IMD components and ranking protocols is also provided in our East Marsh NRA Study Working Paper 2; Unpacking the ONS Index of Multiple Deprivation. 4 On a logorithmic scale. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Neighbourhood profile

Social housing Mosaic identifies house- sub-divison holds here as ‘young fami- lies with limited incomes Official IMD statistics and living in cheap terraced the commercial Mosaic housing’ – most common typology developed by in northern maritime and 5 Experian, help us to iden- industrial regions. Typically tify two distinct sub-areas they are ‘young working of East Marsh. First are the class, unmarried, with small social housing estates young children, low which predominate in the incomes, high unemploy- north and north west of the ment, with social problems NRA. Here the living envi- and health problems.’ ronment dimension of the Though the official IMD IMD – both indoors and rankings confirm the © Experian 2009 outdoors – is relatively Figure 4: Mosaic ‘Coronation Street’ picture of high unemploy- good as shown in the spider ment, low incomes, poor figure on the previous page. However, tenants rank poorly on the two education and health, these households are not quite as deprived as elements of human capital – health and education – which in turn, are those in the northern section. highly correlated with high unemployment and low incomes. The Mosaic typology characterises households here as ‘families on benefits’ or with ‘low horizons.’ Trends

All seven sub-areas became relatively more deprived between 2004 Private housing sub-division and 2007 as shown in figure 5. For example, the northern sub-area ranked 158th most deprived in England in 2004 and 61st in 2007. Second, is the grid iron of streets in the The least deprived south sub-area ranked Figure 5: Trend in deprivation middle, southern and south eastern parts of 6602 in 2004 and 6406 in 2007. the NRA, lined with terraced North 10000 housing occupied by private Crime 2004 Crime 2007 Much of this deterioration is attribut- tenants or owners. In the middle able to a relative increase in 1000 section front doors open directly South North West crime. The North West sub- onto the street; in the slightly 100 area centred on Guildford Street was more prosperous southern section ranked 59 for crime in 2004 and first houses have small front gardens. 10 in 2007, the worst in the UK. The Mosaic characterises both as least deprived sub-area ranked 5795 1 ‘Coronation Street’ and for crime in 2004 and their generic image South East North East 1679 in 2007 – a (figure 4) accurately dramatic deterioration reflects the predominant street of over 4000 rank places. scene in East Marsh. The IMD IMD 2004 IMD 2007 shows a relatively poor living environment. Mid South West Housing

Key message 1: An increasing proportion of the terraced housing stock in East Marsh is privately rented and in poor condition Key message 2: Investing in measures to improve the warmth, safety and security of the housing stock in East Marsh will improve the health and well-being of residents 6 Investment paradox The downside of an unsuccessful housing market is depression and anxiety caused by financial stress. The credit crunch will exacerbate a Though housing investment in East Marsh has a problem already widespread for marginal or sub- Figure 6: Housing investment major impact on many aspects of residents’ lives prime owner-occupiers. Evidence from an earlier t n

(figure 6) the of investment is crucial. It is n period of stress in the UK housing market highlights type y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u essential to distinguish investment in house purchase a the psychological distress of mortgage arrears and n u c o c e r o u o i e H c

v 5 d S H E n from investment in improving housing quality. The E repossession. E paradox of Guildford Street highlights the difference. Between the years 2000 and 2007 average selling prices more the than tripled from £14,000 to Housing quality impacts

1 t n

£44,000. Yet such is the deterioration in the phys- n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u ical fabric of these houses – and the decline in their a Cold, unsafe and insecure homes undermine resi- n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E

utility value to occupiers – that most are now sched- n dent’s confidence to engage with the labour market E uled for demolition. E and wider society. Route one is poor health. Cold homes contribute to long term illness and excess of winter deaths, 6 primarily because of cardiovascular disease in older people. Children Housing market impacts suffer most from respiratory disease caused by damp homes, compro- mising their education. Drawing on the rationale of Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders 2 in nine other depressed areas of England, the Neighbourhood Renewal The government’s 2001 National Service Framework for Older People Area in East Marsh aims for a successful housing market which cites falls as a major cause of disability and death in older people. The improves both housing quality and residents’ well-being. Scottish British Crime Survey reveals over 80% of victims are emotionally evidence shows that a financially secure home base gives occupiers affected by burglary – 20% suffering from anxiety and depression. In control over their environment and provides a haven in an uncertain East Marsh high burglary rates probably account for the high proportion world. 3 Canadian evidence reveals health, especially mental health, of residents on Incapacity Benefits because of mental health problems. results from housing as a ‘good location for life,’ free of the strain of 4 high housing costs and worries about being forced to move. After the death of her husband, Mrs Z moved to East Marsh, ‘for a cheap 1 Source: Land Registry. property near the sea.’ She paid 2 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (2005) Sustainable Communities: Homes for All. CM 6424. The Stationery Office. London. £45,000 from a builder who had 3 Ade Kearns, Rosmary Hiscock, Ann Ellaway & Sally Macintyre. (2000) Beyond Four Walls: bought it for £20,000 a month earlier. the psychsocial benefits of home; Evidence from West-Central Scotland. Housing Studies. Volume 5 Number 3, pages 387-410. He had done it up but it is still damp and 4 Jim Dunn (2002) Housing and inequalities in health: a study of the socioeconomic the windows do not fit properly. Mrs Z cannot afford these dimension of housing and self-reported health from a survey of Vancouver residents. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. Volume 56. Pages 671-81. repairs because she works part time on a minimum wage. She 5 Sarah Nettleton & Roger Burrows. (1998) Mortgage debt, insecure home ownership and reduced her hours because of anxiety and depression caused health: an explanatory analysis. Sociology of Health and Illness. Vol 20. Number 5. Pages 731-753. by the uncertain future of East Marsh and problems of security 6 Paul Wilkinson et al (2001) Cold Comfort: The Social and Environmental Determinants of (now remedied) in the alleyway behind her terrace. Excess Winter Deaths in England, 1986-1996. Joesph Rowntree Foundation. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Housing

Investment in quality

There have been six waves of investment in the bricks and C NC leet horp mortar of 4000 homes in the East Marsh NRA shown on map es R oad t e e tr 2. Originally built (i) in the late 19th Century, the worst S a d il Gr H afto properties to the north were replaced by modern council n St 7 t t e e e tr S H y am b ilto homes (ii) between 1957 and 1980. Original terraced ls n e Str e eet W houses were upgraded (iii) via a programme of HV

e HV tr S G d r NC Housing Action Areas between 1975 and 1990, r aft o HV on f D t S d uk e tr e e ee St re t B ree t HV t S often with the help of council grants. Commercial y le n ta t S e re t t developers built (iv) a small number houses for S S d rk n a la P t t e O u e xfo R t tr rd S S sale in the 1970’s. S tre l et e s t a n e ld a e i tr H M S r Co to pe ic V Hi S HV ldyard New social housing was built (v) from 1980, t Street

t predominantly by Havelok Housing Hil t t dy e e e ard S e e e t r r r t t t S Tu S S y nn ard y d Association which has 470 properties in HV b S e n s tr l l ee a t n l e t e a u t t S R e W e tr the NRA following completion of their S d r o T f unn d ard il Str u eet G Ha Roberts Street development of 39 rold S t tre e et e tr P S a

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t t t e H e ar million. Finally having taken over e r old e t St Ca r S re stle t et S S tree d t y n e la l t t n u all the council owned stock in e a R t e r S t W S ell y ing b ton s St l 2005, Shoreline Housing HV ree e C t e as tle Str W eet Association is comprehen- R oberts sively upgrading (vi) their Street d a W o ellin R gton e Str r E eet properties via the govern- o lean m or S a tre v et n o ment funded Decent C

t e e r R HV t o Homes Programme. S b r e e s rt a s r S F W t

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l W s a rag rr by L St a b n y e S t re e t S d et o oa tre u R r S t an La lle h urb Market dy Bu D sm

it t h ree H R St u investment o lian m a Ju b ad d e Ro rs an ad to urb Ro n D er e op R Co o a The dominant area of d W ad d e Ro oa ad e er t R Ro ls op on an b Co irm housing (shown in light orange) is a urb y Fa D S t re e t S o mix of private rented and owner-occu- u ad th Ro ont d irm Roa Fa per pied terraced houses. Here the invest- Coo Housing Association HV=Havelok (1980+)

L NC=Northern Counties (1980+) ment is primarily for house purchase rather a d y s m i Council (1969-1980) th than improvement. There has been some R ad o t Ro Now Shoreline a on d irm upgrading of better property in the southern Fa Private Development ad (1970+) a Ro third sector of the NRA (predominantly owner- mbi Colu occupied). There are relatively few improvements 19th Century terraced housing undertaken by private landlords who predominate in Figure 7: Housing investment Demolition and Redevelopment the middle and northern sectors unless these are in East Marsh NRA (2009+) enforced by the council. Housing

Our estimates for potential health improvement in the following pages Tenure utilise an extensive property survey commissioned by NEL council in 2007 as a prelude to declaring a Neighbourhood Renewal Area. CPC The tenure pattern of East Marsh appears to be changing. The CPC Ltd fully surveyed a representative sample of 1 in 10 of 3965 survey revealed a split of 47% of dwellings owner-occupied, 22% dwellings. 1 Over 70% were pre 1919 terraces located as on our map. privately rented and 31% managed by Housing Associations 8 (Registered Social Landlords). Our Figure 8: Energy Efficiency of dwellings own East Marsh Community Non-decent homes 45 Survey of residents was drawn 40 England 2001 from a sub-sample of CPC’s Using government guidelines 2 35 East Marsh 2007 surveyed property. Adjusting for their surveyors calculated that 30 the oversampling of occupants of s e g

a 25 1700 properties – 42.9% of the t non-decent property, our survey n e c r

stock – were ‘Non Decent e 20 indicates that 44% of dwellings P according to four broad criteria 15 are privately rented and only half that the property should be: 10 of these are decent. (figure 9) 5 free of Category 1 Hazards 0 In their national review 4 of the <40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70+ be in a reasonabe state of Energy efficiency (SAP rating) private rented sector commis- repair Sources: East Marsh = CPC 2007 survey, England (2001) English House Condition Survey sioned by the government, Julie Rugg and David Rhodes identify a have reasonably modern facilities range of niche markets including ‘slum landlordism.’ The label may (such as kitchens and bathrooms) and services apply to the small scale local landlords who, the Land Registry reveals, provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort (effective insula- predominate in the NRA. Our survey reveals only 3% of privately rented tion and efficient heating dwellings are owned by property Figure 9: Tenure split in East Marsh companies. Only 18% of indi- The biggest cause of failure 50 vidual owners live outside (64%) to meet the Decent Homes 45 Non-decent Lincolnshire. The majority live in Standard was a poor degree of 40 Decent North East Lincolnshire or less thermal comfort (figure 8) 35 than 30 miles away. 30 followed by failures (37%) attrib- ? d n e 25 g

utable to category 1 Hazards. e Jaqui Wells, housing renewal L These are part of the Housing 20 manager for NELC and her 15 Health and Safety Rating System 3 enforcement colleagues also iden- 10 codified by the 2004 Housing Act tify the private rented sector as a 5 and incorporated into our method- 0 focus for special measures. A new ology for estimating health Housing Shoreline Private 0-0 0-0 Landlord Accreditation may help Association Landlord outright mortgage impacts. provide a comprehensive solution to poor property conditions. If it

1 CPC Ltd (2007) East Marsh Neighbourhood Renewal Assessment. North East Lincolnshire does not then Selective Licensing may be the answer to resolving the Council. investment paradox summarised at the beginning of this section. 2 Department of Communities and Local Government. (2006) A Decent Home: The Definition and guidance for implementation. DCLG. London. 3 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (2006) Housing Health and Safety Rating System; Operating Guidance. ODPM Publications. Wetherby. 4 Julie Rugg and David Rhodes. (2008) The Private Rented Sector: Its contribution and potential. Centre for Housing Policy. University of York. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Housing Warmth and comfort

Cold homes Reducing risk

Energy efficiency and tackling fuel poverty are key objectives for Figure 11 estimates the impact on health of investing in high levels of housing investment in the East Marsh Neighbourhood Renewal Area. energy efficiency to eliminate cold conditions in the NRA stock of 3962 Because the 2007 house condition survey dwellings. The baseline is adapted from by cpc shows energy efficiency levels way Figure 10: Possible pathways to health table 2.02 of the HHSRS which esti- 9 below the English average, there is consid- mates a one in 330 pre-1919 dwellings erable scope for improvement. Higher Greater where an occupant is likely to indoor thermal suffer harm and seek medical temperature comfort The new property owned by Less use attention. Over 70% of NRA Decent Better of health Housing Associations is Homes health dwellings are in this cate- services energy efficient and the gory. Though new buildings Less fuel Less Decent Homes Programme will poverty stress generally have a lower risk, bring Shoreline’s portfolio of ex-council cpc surveys indicate this is not the housing up to standard. So the spotlight is on the case in East Marsh. We estimate a baseline risk of 1 in 300 to stock of old private sector terraced housing, both owner-occupied and reflect poorer than average thermal comfort scores for every type and privately rented. Poor thermal comfort accounted for 64% of properties age of property. designated as non-decent by the cpc surveyors. Figure 11: East Marsh: reduced likelihood of harm from excess cold

No. of dwellings Spread of health outcomes Likelihood of where a person Health Impact an occurrence suffers harm Class I Class II Class III Class IV Between 34.0% 6.0% 18.0% 42.0%

Our literature review highlights compelling Baseline 2008 1 in 225–400 10–17 3–6 0–1 2–3 4–7 evidence of a strong link between cold After investment 1 in 600–1100 4–6 1–2 0 0–1 1–3 homes and poor health, warm homes and Reduction 4–13 1–5 0–1 1–3 1–6 good health (figure 10). Every year in the UK up to 50,000 more people die in the winter compared with the summer months. We estimate that up to six The level of investment in the NRA is not certain. Our estimates (derived of these originate in the NRA. from our earlier Ealing study 2) for health impact are based on an opti- mistic scenario which includes the installation of efficient heating The Operating Guidance reports that a healthy indoor temperature is systems with condensing boilers and high levels of loft insulation, 21ºC and ‘a small health risk of adverse health effects begins once the double glazed windows and treatment to exterior non-cavity walls. temperature falls below 19 ºC. Serious health risks occur below 16 ºC with a substantially increased risk of respiratory disease and cardiovas- cular disease.’ 1 Cold conditions afflict older people especially, linked Impact on health cardiovascular disease and death. Children are more likely to suffer from respiratory problems associated with damp conditions brought The impact on health of eliminating cold conditions is modest, as is our about by the condensation caused by low temperatures. similar estimate for removing condensation damp. However the reduc- tion in Class 1 harms to health may amount to preventing up to 5 winter deaths, probably advanced by a heart attack. Children are the 1 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (2006 page 60) Housing Health and Safety Rating main beneficiaries of eliminating damp conditions, with an estimated System: Operating Guidance. ODPM. London. reduction of 15 suffering modest (Class IV) respiratory problems which 2 Jan Gilbertson, Geoff Green, David Ormandy, Bernard Stafford. (2008) Decent Homes: Better Health. Ealing Decent Homes Health Impact Assessment. Sheffield Hallam University. require medical attention. Housing Safety

Accidents Reducing risk

By far the greatest number of accidents in the UK occurs in the home. Figure 13 estimates the impact on health of housing improvements to Approximately 2.8 million a year warrant a visit to an accident and reduce the risk of falls on the level in the NRA stock of 3962 dwellings. emergency department of the NHS. 1 Inside the The baseline is adapted from table Figure 12: Reducing accidents 10 home, most accidents occur in the 20.02 of the HHSRS which esti- living/dining room followed by those in mates that in pre-1919 New Ergonomic Fewer burns the kitchen. Kitchens remodelling and scolds dwellings, hazards are likely to pose a one in 124 risk suffi- Eleven of all the 29 hazards identified in ciently serious for an occupant to Slip the HHSRS lead to accidents. Falls are New resistant floors Fewer trips suffer harm and seek medical Bathrooms and falls the biggest sub-group, causing nearly Adaptations attention. Over 70% of NRA half of all home accidents. These relate to dwellings are old terraces and, the design, construction and mainte- Laminated according to the CPC survey, New glass Fewer collisions, nance of the dwelling. Occupants of East Windows cuts and strains generally in poorer condition Restrictors Marsh’s nineteenth century terraces are than the English average. We more likely than average to suffer falls caused by uneven or slippery therefore estimate a baseline risk of 1 in 100 within the prob- surfaces and electrical shocks, slips, burns and scolds caused by poorly able range from I in 74 to 1 in 133. This affects between 30 and 54 designed kitchens and bathrooms. East Marsh residents annually.

Figure 13: East Marsh: reduced likelihood of falls on the level

Health Impact No. of dwellings Spread of health outcomes Likelihood of where a person an occurrence suffers harm Class I Class II Class III Class IV Older people would be the main beneficiaries Between 0.2% 13.8% 27.3% 58.7% of housing renewal which upgraded kitchens, bathrooms and windows. Published in 2001, Baseline 2008 1 in 74–133 30–54 0 4–8 8–14 18–32 the UK Government’s National Service After investment 1 in 150–266 15–27 0 2–4 4–7 9–16 Framework for Older People 2 emphasised falls Reduction 3–39 0 0–6 1–10 2–23 as a major cause of disability and the leading cause of mortality due to injury in older people aged over 75. Standard The level of investment in the NRA is not certain. Our estimates 6 aimed to ‘Reduce the number of falls which result in serious injury and (derived from our earlier studies) for health impact are based on an ensure effective treatment and rehabilitation for those who have fallen.’ optimistic scenario which halves the likelihood of a fall to 1 in 200 Primary Care Trusts and Local Authorities are required to work together (range 1 in 150-266). This requires owner-occupiers and private sector on an Integrated Falls Strategy and an integrated service. Government landlords to improve bathrooms and kitchens up to the Decent Homes advice 3 4 emphasises person-centred prevention and care, though also standard of the social housing sector. acknowledging the wider housing context.

Impact on health 1 Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents www.rospa.com/factsheets/general_accidents PDF (accessed 11/06/06). 2 Department of Health (2001) National Service Framework for Older People. Department of The impact of reducing falls in East Marsh is modest. Death is a rare Health. London. occurrence. However there is likely to be an annual reduction of up to 3 Department of Health (2003) How can we help older people not to fall again? Implementing the Older People’s NSF Falls Standard: Support for commissioning good 39 physical injuries from bruising, fractures and injuries to head, brain services. Department of Health. London. and the spine. A fall, can lead to the general deterioration in the health 4 National Collaborating Centre for Nursing and Supportive Care (2004) Falls: the assessment and prevention of falls in older people. National Institute for Clinical Excellence. London. of an elderly person. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Housing Security

Freedom from crime and fear of crime is a Figure 14: Secure by Design In a wide ranging review 3 for the Suzy priority for North East Lincolnshire, both at a Lamplugh Trust Research Institute at the strategic and community level. The chal- University of Glamorgan, Paul Cozens and lenge is enormous in East Marsh NRA, Target others take a critical review of the Improve harden the hottest of all crime hotspots in security evidence, distinguishing target 1 homes the whole of England. Section 7 Decent Improve hardening of properties from the 11 Homes summarises the range of meas- Neighbourhood/ feelings of design of housing estates. invest 2 ures being implemented across Estate safety Another key evaluation of target many domains. Probably most hardening of properties owned by Improve Reduce effective are target hardening meas- mental Glasgow Housing Association stress ures to reduce burglary in dwellings. health concludes that installing doors and windows to Secured by Design standards reduces burglaries by 75%. 4 Security and health

The emotional impact of burglary is well documented by the British Potential health benefits Crime Survey showing 83% of all respondents who were victims of burglary were emotionally affected in some way, with attempted Our baseline of the likelihood of intruders causing harm to a resident burglary also having a significant affect. 1 Additionally the HHSRS takes of East Marsh is between 1 in 7 and 1 in 12. (figure 15). It is derived account of the harmful impact on victims’ neighbours who may expe- by adapting table 12.02 in the Operating Guidance for the Operating rience a heighted sense of insecurity. Guidance of the Housing Health and Safety Rating System 5 to take

Figure 15: East Marsh: impact of improvements in security Security measures No. of dwellings Spread of health outcomes Likelihood of where a person There is considerable research evidence (of an occurrence suffers harm Class I Class II Class III Class IV variable quality) to show that installing home Between 0% 0.1% 9.1% 90.8% security measures (within a variety of neigh- Baseline 2008 1 in 7–12 (of 3865) 332–552 0 0–1 29–50 292–501 bourhood contexts) reduces the chances of After investment 1 in 26–47 (of 3865) 82–147 0 0 7–14 74–135 burglary. The Home Office reports: Reduction 185–470 0 0–1 15–43 157–427 ‘Households where there are no home secu- rity measures were far more likely to have been victims of burglary account of local evidence on burglary rates. We estimate that up to (14.7%) than those where there were simple security measures such 550 East Marsh residents currently suffer some form of emotional or as deadlocks on doors and window locks (2.8%).’ 4 mental health problem as a result of intruders, though often it is low level anxiety.

1 Nicholas S. and Wood M. (2003) Chapter 4. Property Crime in England and Wales. Crime in England & Wales, 2002/03. Home Office. London. We estimate that full scale implementation of security measures based 2 Nicholas S., Povey D., Walker A. and Kershaw C. (2005) (Table 4.01) Crime in England and Wales 2004/5 Home Office Statistical Bulletin, National Statistics, London. on Secured by Design principles will reduce the likelihood of harm to 3 Cozens P.M., Pascoe, T., Hillier D. Critically Reviewing the Theory and Practice of Secured-By- between 1 in 82 and 1 in 147. Our most optimistic estimate is a Design for Residential New Build in Britain. Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal. Volume 6, Issue Number 1, pages 13-29 (2004). reduction of 470 residents harmed by intruders sufficient for them to 4 Strathclyde Police. (2004) Summary Evaluation: Secured by Design Installations in GHA seek medical attention. Of all the measures planned to improve the Communities. Glasgow Housing Association. housing stock, target hardening to reduce burglary are likely to make 5 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. (2006) Housing Health and safety Rating System: Operating Guidance. ODPM Publications. the most widespread impact on health. Economy

Key message 1: Unemployment in parts of East Marsh ranks almost the worst in England Key message 2: Evidence endorses the NEL Economic Well-Being Strategy of targeting a combination of health promotion and interventions to improve labour market matching

12 A strong local economy is fundamental to the prosperity of East Marsh Impact on local labour market and impacts on many aspects of residents’ lives. The ‘spider’ diagrams in our introduction show close links between employment and income. East Marsh residents tend to work within a mile of where they live. These are highly correlated with education and health, the two essen- Economists say they have a low 'job search horizon.' The 2001 Census tial elements of human capital or ‘fitness for work’ Figure 16: Economic flows provides the latest data and reveals nearly 90% of the 3760 employed residents in East Marsh ward t n n y e y g o

Cause and effect flow both ways (figure 16). For t worked in North East Lincolnshire, 73% within 3 h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e

example, in a vicious downward spiral, poor r miles of their home (compared with 40% nationally) o u o i e H c v d S H E n E

working conditions in a fish processing factory may E and 35% within the ward boundaries (primarily in the cause health problems 1 leading to unemployment. Fish Dock area). A quarter worked as ‘process plant In a virtuous circle, good health leads to a better job and machine operatives’ and a similar percentage in and a good job promotes better health. 2 ‘elementary occupations.’ 3 t n n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n E

Investment E Labour market paradox

There are close ties between residents of East Marsh and Grimsby Fish There should be a match between the largely unskilled residents of Docks. In its heyday this commu- East Marsh – as revealed by our nity supplied labour for one of the Figure 17: Benefit claimants survey – and many low skill jobs biggest fishing fleets in Europe 40 in the nearby Fish Dock area and n o i Others t

and port facilities. Investment in a adjacent wards. Yet nearly half l 35 u

p Carers o p

food processing partly offset a 30 those of working age do not have e

g Lone parents a

dramatic decline of the fishing g 25 a formal job. This is reflected in n

i Incapacity benefit k r

industry after the ‘cod wars’ of o 20 the Indices of Multiple Deprivation.

w Job seekers

e h t

the 1970's. Now it is the domi- 15 Around Hamilton Street employ- f o

e

nant industry in the Fish Dock g 10 ment is in the worst 1% (19th of a t n e c Area and helps tag Grimsby ‘Food r 5 32,842) sub-areas in the whole of e P Capital of the North’ or ‘Frozen 0 England and the Guildford Street Food Capital of Europe.’ Grimsby East Marsh ward Great Britain sub-area ranks in the top 1% for Source Department of Work and Pensions (August 2008) Fish Market is also the biggest in unemployment benefits. the UK, taking fresh fish stocks from other ports by road and from Iceland via Immingham docks. Figure 17 compares take-up of out-of-work benefits in East Marsh Ward with the national average. A stable 16% of the working age popula- tion remains on incapacity benefit. But as the recession bites, the 1 Jeebhay MF, Robins TG & Lopata AL. (2004) World at work: Fish processing workers. Occupational and Environmental Medicine. Volume 61. pages 471-474. number on job seekers benefit has increased from 610 in August 2008 2 Michael Marmot et al (1997) Contribution of job control to social gradient in coronary heart to 805 in February 2009 – now 11.2% of the working population. disease incidence. Lancet: Volume 350; pages 235-240. Worklessness is a big challenge for both residents and policy-makers. 3 Sheffield Hallam University (2009) East Marsh Community Survey. Residents of working age 45% unqualified, 19% NVQ Level 1, and 20% NVQ Level 2. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Economy

Local labour market Pathways to work

A formal economic model (figure 18) helps explain the labour market At its heart is an Integrated Pathway for getting people into work. The paradox in East Marsh and highlights model is thoroughly researched and developed three points of intervention. First is Figure 18: A model of the local labour market in part 5, Recommendations for Change and creating more job opportunities. Labour supply & Labour demand & Job Short Term Action Plan, going way beyond the 13 However, though failure to resolve Human capital oppportunities orthodox brokerage role of Job Centre Plus. the future of the Grimsby Fish Dock The four stages are (1) engagement (with Education & Health Inwards investment Area may have inhibited investment, minus Plant closures those distant from the labour market) (2) there remains a demand for rela- empowering (removing barriers) (3) equip- Labour market matching tively unskilled labour. Second, on ping (with training, skills and qualifications) the labour supply side, our survey Employment Unemployment/ and (4) Enabling (supporting people into work reveals both a group of residents too inactivity and at work). The programme requires the Wage income Out-of-work ill to work and an expanding low- welfare benefits strategic involvement of all key agencies and skilled pool who are healthy enough for delivery, coordination between community to work. There is a case for long term investment in health promotion. champions, key workers and service providers. (figure 19) Third, most important, is labour market matching – the institutional Figure 19: Pathway processes (led by Job Centre Plus) and personal activities relating to process and organisation job search which determine who works, who does not and which vacancies remain unfilled. National evidence 1 suggests that as a Community champion means of boosting local employment, interventions to improve Service labour market matching are generally more effective than invest- provider ments in human capital, at least in the short term. Gap in service provision

Key worker Strategic Intervention Integrated pathway In 2008 North East Lincolnshire secured £13.2 million from the government’s Working Neighbourhoods Fund to address the problems Focus on East Marsh faced by people getting into full-time sustainable work. A big confer- ence in January 2009 launched a strategic response from the Council According to Colin Bulger, Assistant Chief Executive of NELC, ‘Two and Local Strategic partnership which addresses the key issue of labour Community Collaboratives will be set up in the borough’s most market matching. According to Andrea Fitzgerald, the Council’s deprived areas; East Marsh and South Wards’ supported by local coun- Community Investment Manager, the model endorsed by cillor Steve Beasant, Portfolio Holder for Communities and ‘Strengthening Economic Well-Being in North East Lincolnshire,’ 2 has Neighbourhoods. This inter-agency approach builds on the success of both ‘supply, which is client-focused looking at an individual’s needs, Shoreline Housing Association and the NHS in creating intermediate and demand, which looks at creating careers and working with our labour markets for residents of deprived areas. Employability employers.’ For now the strategy addresses the key problem of labour programmes operating in Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospitals market matching. NHS Trust( Grimsby hospital) and more recently in the Care Trust Plus, have delivered a combined total of 325 work placements in jobs such 1 Anne Green & Chris Hasluck. (2009) Action to Reduce Worklessness: What Works. Local as administrative assistant, receptionist, nursing assistant and service Economy, Volume 24, Issue 1, pages 28-37. desk analyst. 101 of these trainees have already secured jobs in the 2 Spirals Ltd. (2008) Strengthening Economic Well-Being in North East Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire Council. NHS and another 46 elsewhere. Education

Key message 1: High levels of deprivation in East Marsh help explain below average performance of local schools Key message 2: Sure Start and the Healthy Schools programme promote health and life skills, aiming to improve social and economic well-being in adults 14 Investment and impact Adding value

In March 2009 Havelock Academy unveiled plans to invest £22m in Evidence points to a child’s background influencing educational rebuilding their local secondary school. Expectations are that a better performance. Socioeconomic context compared with the ‘school effect’ school environment, and indeed better teaching has been intensely debated, leading to the contested Figure 20: Education flows in all the schools serving East Marsh, will concept of ‘Contextual Added Value.’ 1 No doubt depriva- t n n

improve school performance. y tion in East Marsh compromises a child’s capacity to e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a

n achieve good qualifications. Poor parental qualifications u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n There is much to do. On orthodox measures of E (Table U) are an influence. E attainment, target driven by central govern- ment, East Marsh schools are below the national A difficult family life often leads to health and behaviour average. Though the School Profile for Weelsby problems, classified as special educational needs (SEN) t n

Primary School, located at the heart of the NRA, n affecting nearly half the pupils attending Weelsby Primary y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u shows an exceptionally high 91% of pupils a and over a third attending Havelock. Despite these hand- n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E

achieving level at key stage 2 in science n E icaps, the official CVA formula shows Weelsby adding E (national average 88%) only 63% achieved value significantly above the national average. The level level 4 for English (81%) and 72% for maths (78%). Only 27% of 2 CVA of 986.9 for Havelock Academy puts it within the lowest pupils at Havelock Academy achieved 5 GCSEs (A*-C) compared with quartile for mainstream secondary schools. 65% nationally. 1 Economic impact Figure 21: Qualifications of East Marsh parents compared 1 45 National evidence points to qualifications having a major impact on 3 40 East Marsh employment prospects and income. Figure 22 shows this correlation 35 National in East Marsh. Residents in part or full time work are much more likely 30 to be qualified than those looking for work, on Incapacity Benefit or s e g a

t 25

n looking after the home. e c r 20 e P 15 10 Figure 22: Qualifications and Employment in East Marsh 5 70 0 60 NVQ4 NVQ4+ NVQ3 NVQ2 NVQ1 none NVQ3 50 NVQ2 s r

e 40 b NVQ1 m u N 30 None 20

1 Department of Children, Schools and Families. Achievement and Attainment Tables, 2008. 10 2 David Jesson. (2008) Using data, improving schools. Ofsted. 0 3 Sandy Leitch (2005) Skills in the UK. The Long Term Challenge. Interim Report. HM Working Not working Treasury. Source: CRESR (2009) East Marsh Community Survey. N = 160 of working age. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Education

Health and education Life skills

Education is influenced by and influences health and well-being. This Besides formal qualifications, children’s social skills determine educa- reciprocal relationship influences the early years of child’s develop- tion, earnings and health in adult life.3 Early interventions by Sure Start ment. Often it is beneficial. In deprived areas such as East Marsh it can and nursery education help children get a better start in life. For older reinforce a downward spiral where physical or mental health problems children, ‘Health and Social Education’ is one of five areas of interac- 15 inhibit educational development. Without inter- tion for Havelock Academy and the expanding Figure 23: Early years investment/impact vention by parents or professionals, infant chil- Shalom Youth Project helps with socialising at- dren with these special needs may become risk children to enable them to become func- school children classified with Special Educational tioning adults. Needs, less likely to attain formal qualifications. 1 Healthy lifestyles + Social life skills

Health + Social inclusion Healthy schools Sure Start Well-being Employment The concept of a ‘Healthy School’ was adopted Two educational projects in East Marsh aim to by the UK Government in 1999.4 The rationale improve health, leading eventually to employment and economic well- is to encourage children into healthy lifestyles, leading to better educa- being, one of the government’s 5 national outcomes for children. tional performance in the short term. In the medium term healthier (Figure 23). Sure Start Local Programmes (SSLPs) were established lifestyles will reduce levels of disability, increase employment rates and nationally in successive waves from 1999 to provide integrated economic well-being. In the long term, these interventions in early life support to young children and families living in England’s most disad- course will limit levels of disability in later life. 5 6 vantaged communities. Healthcare was one of five core services which SSLPs were required to deliver alongside outreach and home visiting, Supported by a dedicated NELC team, local schools have adopted the special needs, family support, childcare and early leaning and play. 2 four components of the National Healthy Schools Programme: The East Marsh Children’s Centre grew out of East Marsh Sure Start Personal, Social and Health Education which started in 2001, moving to Victor Street in 2004. Healthy Eating The Centre has an integrated multi-agency staff team. Play, family Physical Activity support and education are complemented by a health team of health visitors, midwives, a nursery nurse, nutritionist and support workers. Emotional Health & Well-being The Centre gives support to parents with primary and community health and social care. Children’s Nurse Practitioner service provides Havelock Academy achieved National Healthy Schools Status in July families with better access to health advice for their children including 2008. In his Healthy School Audit Report (April 2009) Matt Sinclair, diagnosis of illness and prescriptions. Director of Co-curriculum, highlights the contribution of external agen- cies in achieving Personal Social & Health Education objectives; the 1 Sure Start Unit. (2002) Supporting families who have children with special needs and Multi Agency Sexual Health Team and the £100,000 project partner- disabilities. Department for Education and Science. 2 Anne Pinney (2007) A Better Start: Children and Families with Special Educational Needs in ship with the NHS to support East Marsh students. A Whole School Sure Start Local Programmes. Department of Education and Skills. Food Policy promotes healthy eating at home and has increased take- 3 Pedro Carneiro, Claire Crawford & Alissa Goodman (2006). Which Skills Matter. The Centre for the Economics of Education. London School of Economics. up of healthy school meals. Obligatory physical exercise is supple- 4 Introduction to the National Healthy Schools Programme (2007) NHS/Department of mented by co-curricular club activity; a travel plan encourages cycling Children, Schools and Families. and walking to school. A school resource team draws in expertise from 5 National Heart Forum (2002) Towards a generation free from coronary heart disease: Policy action for children’s and young people’s health and well-being. National Heart Forum. many external agencies to support individual development plans for London. pupils with special educational needs. 6 Larkin M (2002) Defusing the “time-bomb of childhood obesity. The Lancet. Vol. 359.Issue 9310. page 987. Environment

Key message: Past programmes and future plans for East Marsh recognise that investment in the environment has a significant impact on the housing market, residents' security and their health

16 Besides improving the appearance of a neighbourhood, investment in fences and litter. Defying gravity, with low aspirations or commendable the environment makes a significant impact in four other domains resilience, some residents of Guildford Street, part boarded up and (figure 24). Whereas industrial and transport related awaiting demolition, were fairly satisfied with their Figure 24: Environmental impacts pollution deters house buyers and damages the environment.

1 t n n y

health of established residents, a quality environ- e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r

2 o n s a u a n u c ment raises the market value of the housing stock o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n and attracts inward investment in industry and E

E Plans commerce. The Designation of East Marsh Neighbourhood Whereas the broken window theory 3 suggests that Renewal Area brings in its train £210,000 allocated t n n

neglect of the built environment encourages y by NELC for environmental improvements. Priorities e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a

vandalism and feelings of insecurity, Secured by n are determined by local residents and their represen- u c o c e r o u o i e H c v d S H E n Design investment in a neighbourhood’s built envi- E tatives in the local community forum, East Marsh E ronment improves security and feelings of safety. 4 Involve. Of the 10 priorities agreed at their meeting Safe and secure parks encourage exercise and promote physiological in March 2009, four related specifically to street appearance. Grants health. 5 Uplifting green spaces restore psychological health. 6 would be ‘offered to local residents to tidy up the front and rear of their houses.’ Funding would be ‘offered to repair and provide boundary walls where necessary as many were in an unsafe state.’ It was planned to identify derelict Resident’s viewpoint Figure 25: Resident assessment of local environment land and bring it back to use. 100 The high density grid iron streets of East 90 Very dissatisfied Flower schemes would Marsh provide little open space; few play 80 Fairly dissatisfied enhance street appearance. areas and only two small parks. However, 70 Neutral e

g 60 a t Fairly satisfied on balance more people in our resident n Acutely conscious of the link

e 50 c r e 40 Very satisfied survey were satisfied with these open P between environment and 30 spaces than dissatisfied (figure 25) even 20 security, the meeting if they had children. Despite road calming 10 resolved to extend the 0 measures, more people were dissatisfied Open space Traffic impact Street appearance system of alley gates behind with traffic noise, pollution and safety. Source: CRESR (2009) East Marsh Community Survey. N = 223 terraced housing. Four schemes had been undertaken over the past three years to stop of The biggest concern was with street appearance with 60% of respon- access to strangers. New proposals would acknowledge the need for dents expressing dissatisfaction with pavements, front gardens, walls, repair and maintenance and incorporate recycling facilities.

1 Robert Brook et al (2004) Air pollution and Cardiovascular Disease. Circulation. Volume 4 Geoff Green, Jan Gilbertson, Michael Grimsley. (2002) Fear of Crime and Health in 109; pages 2655-2671. Residential Tower Blocks: A Case Study of Liverpool, UK. European Journal of Public Health. 2 Paul Cheshire (2007) Segregated Neighbourhoods and Mixed Communities: A Critical Volume 12, pages 10-15. Analysis. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. 5 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (2008) Promoting and Creating Built or 3 George Kelling and Catherine Coles(1996) Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Natural Environments that Encourage and Support Physical Activity. NICE. London. Reducing Crime in Our Communities. Martin Kessler Books. New York. 6 Terry Hartig (2008) Green space, psychological restoration, and health inequality. The Lancet. Volume 372, Issue 9650: pages 1614-1615. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Environment

Secure alleys Figure 26: Target hardening determined by a newly established Friends of Grant Thorold Park, drawing in local residents (including Target Our resident survey reveals a majority of resi- Improve young people) police representatives, Shoreline harden security dents fearing for their safety if out alone in alleys and local councillors. According to environ- the neighbourhood at night (Section 7). mental management officer, Sue Pearson, Often they do not venture out in the security considerations were paramount, 17 evening. We have evidence of signifi- Improve Improve leading to improved lighting, lowering of cant links, first between this fear of mental feelings of bushes to improve sightlines and drop health safety crime and stress and second between Reduce down bollards at the Park’s entrances to stress and anxiety or depression. Investment stress prevent car dumping. These measures have to increase social capital – trust in neighbours, led in turn to increased uptake of the three new mutual support through Neighbourhood Watch (and there play areas for toddlers, juniors and teens. Three local foot- are schemes in East Marsh) or even Sure Start is one option for ball teams play regularly on the refurbished multi-use games area, reducing crime and the fear of crime on the streets. improving fitness and health, reducing anti-social behaviour.

Another option is ‘target hardening’ – changing the physical environ- ment to make streets less intimidating and homes more difficult to Sutherland Park burgle (figure 26). Gating back alleys is probably the most cost-effec- tive investment when the streets themselves cannot be altered. The Located at the intersection of Victor Street and Cleethorpes Road (top four schemes implemented over the past three years have been jointly left of the map on page 5) this is the site of the next major invest- funded by Shoreline Housing Partnership, the social housing provider ment in green space. A £10,000 grant has been given to the Podium and NEL Safer Communities Partnership. Project – a local gardening group – by the Big Lottery Breathing Spaces programme. Residents came up with the idea to create a woodland park and were supported in their bid by Claire Wollington, Oasis Garden regeneration officer of Shoreline. The plan is to create a woodland park by crowning all the trees, installing bird boxes and planting over At the intersection of densely populated Weelsby and Wellington 50,000 spring bulbs. The photograph shows local schoolchildren Streets is Your Place, a Christian community centre. Behind their making a start. building complex is the Oasis garden. Says garden volunteer Ann Hodgson, it has been created over the past three years to include flower beds, a vegetable plot, fruit bushes and a children’s play- ground. Within a secure perimeter it provides a tranquil setting for local residents’ spiritual (or, as doctors say) ‘psychological’ restoration.

Grant Thorold Park

Refurbishment of historic Grant Thorold Park at the heart of East Marsh NRA classically illustrates the complex dynamic between different domains. Started in 2004 with resources from the Government’s Liveability Fund, priorities were Health

Key message 1: Care Trust Plus, an innovative partnership between the Council and NHS, is well positioned to improve lifestyles and the wider determinants of health Key message 2: Interventions to improve health early in the course of life are cost-effective in enhancing economic performance and reducing dependency in later life 18 The World Health Organization (WHO) maintains health is a goal of all Wider determinants societies – ‘complete physical, mental and social well-being, not merely the absence of disease and infirmity.’ 1 Adopted by the UK The pioneering CTP partnership between the NHS and local authority government and elaborated in Our Healthier Nation, 2 the priority now makes a very strong commitment to tackling the wider determinants is reducing health inequalities 3 via those local of health shown in figure 27. According to chief executive Figure 27: Health 5 ‘spearhead’ authorities with the unhealthiest investment/impact Jane Lewington “we needed to do something to break populations. NEL is one of these and East into those economic and social issues, above and beyond t n n y e y g

Marsh ward, ranking in the worst 1% in o our healthier lifestyle work… With public health expertise t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c England on the IMD health domain, is a special e sitting in the town hall, the local authority can now begin r o u o i e H c v d S H E n E

target for intervention. E to incorporate health improvement into its housing, envi- ronmental, educational, transport and economic planning departments.” Polices and programmes to improve popu- Lifestyles lation health are embedded in the CTP five year strategy – t

n 6 n y e y g Building a Healthy Community Together – and the NEL o t h i i m n t m t i l r o n s

a 7 u a n u c o c

The National Health Service has a critical role in e three year Council Plan. r o u o i e H c v d S H E n improving health though the great majority of E E NHS expenditure is on treating illness in hospi- tals. Operating in NEL as Care Trust Plus (CTP), the NHS is committed Up and downstream investment to primary and secondary prevention, often (as emphasised in the governments White Paper, Choosing Health 4) improving lifestyles and The CTP approach is based on a social model of health (Figure 28) the risks created by obesity, lack of exercise, irresponsible sex and drug adopted by WHO and the UK Government and endorsed by Director of misuse. The management of long term heart disease and cancer has Public Health, Tony Hill. 8 According to a Chief Medical Officer for resulted in significant reductions in premature mortality, though the England, Reducing health inequalities jury is out on whether the gap between East Marsh (the worst requires ‘a broad front approach ward for CHD) and NEL is closing. which reflects scientific evidence that health inequalities are the outcome of causal chains 1 Preamble to the Constitution of the World Health Organisation (1948). which run back into and 2 Department of Health (1999) Saving Lives: Our Healthier Nation. from the basic structure of The Stationery Office. London. 3 Department of Health (2003) Tackling Health Inequalities: A society .. Policies need to be Programme for Action. DH. London. Figure 28: Social model of health upstream and downstream.’ 9 4 Department of Health (2004) Choosing Health: Making Healthier Choices Easier. The Stationery Office. London. 5 Health Services Journal 7th July 2008. In an era of tight budgets a key, and largely unresolved question, is 6 NEL Care Trust Plus. North East Lincolnshire Care Trust Plus’ Local Strategic Plan for how to pinpoint the most cost effective mix of downstream interven- Commissioning 2009/10-2013/14. NEL CTP.(Updated April 2009). 7 North East Lincolnshire Council Plan 2009/2012 (April 2009). tions on lifestyle or upstream investments in wider determinants. For 8 Joint Executive Director of Public Health. A Multi-agency Healthier Communities Strategy for East Marsh this is complicated by a population dynamic which attracts North East Lincolnshire – 2008-2011. NEL Care Trust Plus. unhealthy and low income incomers and exports healthier and aspira- 9 Acheson D. (1998) Independent Inquiry into Inequalities in Health Report. The Stationery Office. London, tional residents with higher incomes. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Health

Cementing the relationship between NELC and the NHS, a Strategic from these local communities provides one to one support for local Agreement 1 summarised cross-budget flows: £1.19 million from the people to adopt healthy lifestyles, focusing on diet, exercise and CTP to the local authority for preventive measures, a contribution of smoking. HeartWell provides funding for community groups to address £20.7 million from the local authority Cardiovascular Disease and WalkWell Figure 29: Functional capacity over the life course to the CTP for providing most aspects encourages local guided walks to of social care. improve fitness and reduce risk. An 19 Early Life Adult Life Older Age Growth and Maintaining highest possible Maintaining independence Older People’s Collaborative in East development level of function and preventing disability Marsh also addresses psychosocial y t i aspects of health by enabling circa 50 Physical health c a p a c

residents find a more active social life. l a n o i

These strategic budget flows are both t c n

2 u Disability threshold sides of a coin. WHO shows that F early life course intervention will in Mental health later life prevent disease, disability Range of function and dependency on social services in individuals Health makes a major contribution to (figure 29). Then older people are Age economic performance. Conversely in more likely to be a resource to Source: Kalache & Kickbusch, 1997, cited in Active Ageing, 2002 East Marsh, poor health, especially society, as carers and volunteers, contributing informally to the poor mental health, restricts employment and is a focus of Department economy. Using a formula adopted by Leeds University 3 the value of of Work and Pensions (DWP) reforms. Mental health problems account informal care in North East Lincolnshire is circa £100 million a year. for an increasing proportion of the nation’s working age population on Incapacity Benefit over the past decade, reaching 46% in East Marsh Scientific evidence tends to support primary rather than secondary (figure 30) during 2008. prevention as making a bigger impact. 4 Naturally there is a compelling case for managing long term Figure 30: East Marsh : Cause of incapacity benefit conditions such as heart disease and cancer, but 1400 early interventions may be more effective in reducing Other 1200 risk and increasing quality of life both in working age Injury/poisoning

s Nervous system t

n 1000 e adults and older people. i

p Respiratory/circulatory i c e r 800 Musculoskeletal h s r

a Mental

This is the rationale behind ‘lifestyle’ related initia- M

t 600 s a tives undertaken by CTP and partners. Many are E 400 focused on deprived areas like East Marsh. For example a team of 15 Health Trainers 5 recruited 200 0 19992002 2005 2008 1 North East Lincolnshire Care Trust Plus. (2007) Strategic Agreement 1st September 2007 – 31st March 2008. CTP. 2 Noncommunicable diseases prevention and health promotion department (2002) Active Our resident’s survey reveals poor mental health is often caused by Ageing: A policy framework. World Health Organization. Geneva. stress and takes the form of anxiety and depression. Via a new Work 3 University of Leeds (2007) Valuing Carers – calculating the value of unpaid care. Carers UK. 4 Robert Kaplan (2000) Two Pathways to Prevention. American Psychologist. Volume 55. Capability Assessment, DWP aims to manage such conditions, improve Number 4, pages 382-396. functional ability and employment prospects. A significant element of 5 Linda Ball, Elaine Brookes, Jeff Breckon, Jacob Holmes, Nasrin Nasr. (2008) Evaluation of the NEL Health Trainers Programme. Sheffield Hallam University. condition management is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. Though cost- 6 David Clark, Martin Knapp, Richard Layard, Guy Mayraz (2007) Cost-Benefit Analysis of effective, it is difficult to predict the reduction of IB claimants in East Psychological Therapy. Centre for Economic Performance. London School of Economics. Marsh. In periods of economic recession IB is often a proxy for hidden 7 Christina Beatty, Steve Fothergill & Rob MacMillan. (2007) A theory of Employment, 7 Unemployment and Sickness. Regional Studies. Volume 34. Number 7. unemployment. Security

Key message 1: East Marsh NRA has persistently high levels of crime and disorder which damage the health and well-being of residents Key message 2: Working through the Community Safety Partnership, Humberside Police have pinpointed the pattern of crime and have a lead role in improving safety and security 20 The headline statistic is that one of seven sub-areas of the East Marsh Impact NRA is the worst for crime in the whole of England. It is ranked first of 32,842 sub-areas on the crime dimension of the Index of Multiple A neighbourhood’s reputation for crime will influence house prices and Deprivation. Other sub-areas in East Marsh also perform badly. residents’ perceived levels of safety inside and outside their homes will influence their health. Crime levels have been high Figure 31: Impact of security in East Marsh and house prices low. Compared to

t the national average, many people feel unsafe, in Crime and disorder n n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l r their homes and especially out at night (figure 32). o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o i e H c v Though primary responsibility for security rests with ‘A’ d Our representative sample of 223 residents felt S H E n E Division of Humberside Police (covering North East E either a bit unsafe (32.6%) or very unsafe (6.5%) Lincolnshire) it is widely recognised that broader social in their homes alone at night compared with the and economic factors influence the level of crime in British averages of 5.4% and 1.0%. They felt either

every locality. It is no coincidence that NEL and East t a bit unsafe (40.5%) or very unsafe (30.0%) out n n y e y g o t h i i m n t m t i l Marsh in particular, rank high on nearly every other r alone in the neighbourhood after dark, compared o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o i e H domain of deprivation. For this reason the Government c with the British average of 21.5% and 9.8% v d S H E n E monitors local crime statistics by comparison with a E respectively. family of authorities with similar socioeconomic charac- teristics. Figure 32: Feelings of safety Home alone at night Out alone after dark Preceding sections of this report have highlighted how 100 these socioeconomic determinants exert a dynamic 90 Very unsafe influence (figure 31). The response in NEL (as nation- 80 Bit unsafe ally) is a statutory 1 broad based Community Safety 70 Fairly safe

e 60 Very safe g a

Partnership of agencies, each with some responsibility t n

e 50 c r

for addressing these ‘upstream’ causes of crime and e P 40 disorder. The core partners – Police, Local authority and 30 Care Trust Plus (NHS) have powers and resources to 20 lead on the effort to reduce crime and disorder. 10 0 East Marsh Britain East Marsh Britain Sources. CRESR (2009) Resident Survey (N = 223). ONS (2009) British Crime Survey 2007/8.

Analysis of the British Crime Survey 2 suggests this may be one cause of the relatively large numbers of East Marsh residents with mental

1 Established via section five of the Crime and Disorder Act 1998. Suttor members in NEL are health problems. Neighbourhood disorder may also help explain, via Humberside Police (A Division) Humberside Police Authority, NEL Council, Humberside Fire 3 and Rescue Authority. NEL Care Trust Plus. stress, the high levels of Coronary Heart Disease in the community. 2 Nicolas S., Povey D., Walker A & Kershaw C (2005) (Table 4.01) Crime in England and Wales 2004/5. Home Office Statistical Bulletin, National Statistics. London. 3 Catherine Ross & John Mirowsky (2001) Neighbourhood Disadvantage, Disorder and Health. Journal of Health and Social Behaviour. Volume 42. pages 258-276. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Security

Improving safety and security is a top Crime hotspots Wider socio-economic deprivation is priority for the NEL Local Strategic highly correlated with criminality, Partnership The partnership’s high antisocial behaviour and drug use. level Local Area Agreement (LAA2) Two-thirds of respondents to our with central government secures community survey saw it as a very funds to meet demanding targets for (44%) or fairly (24%) big problem 21 reducing crime and disorder. The chal- and it was a top priority for the resi- lenges are immense. Though signifi- dents attending focus groups to cant reductions were achieved prepare the East Marsh (Grant between the baseline year of East Marsh NRA Thorold) Neighbourhood Investment 2003/4 and 2007/8, these are Plan. It was estimated that there now less marked. Burglary and were 1300 problem drug users in certain forms of violent crime persist the local area, many also engaged at high levels. Overall, NEL ranks worst in the family of 15 other local in crime to supply their addiction. A Drug and Alcohol Action Team authority areas with similar socio-economic characteristics. 1 (DAAT) has a significant role in East Marsh, engaged in prevention, treatment and rehabilitation.

East Marsh hot spot Policing Infrastructure The hotspot map shows the East Marsh NRA (outlined) making a significant contribution to overall crime levels in NEL alongside the The 1998 Criminal Justice Act encourages police forces to prevent town centre. East Marsh NRA is the hottest spot for domestic burglary crime as well as bring offenders to justice. There can be a tension with more than twice the rate (5.2. per 100 households) of the between these roles. Criticised by central government for low detection average for North East Lincolnshire and accounting for more than 10% rates, Humberside Police switched their priorities away from (preven- all domestic burglaries in the local authority area. Figure 33 points to tive) community policing. Now prevention is once again a priority. a slight increase in burglary though locally high levels of violence and Operating operating from a modern police station in Hamilton Street, criminal damage appear to be subsiding. 2 three Police Constables supported by 8 Community Support Officers are a force in the East Marsh Community. They work alongside 4 commu- nity wardens managed by NELC, whose remit also covers the safety Action on wider determinants and security of the East Marsh environment.

Previous sections of this report highlight the wider determinants of Figure 33: Recent crime trends in East Marsh NRA crime in East Marsh and actions -especially in the housing and environ- 800 ment sectors – to improve security and feelings of safety. Enhanced 700 2006 programmes of target hardening should reduce domestic burglary, 2007 600 though the police report many intruders enter homes through open 2008 windows and doors. Secured by Design principles applied to the refur- 500 bishment of local green spaces should reduce the opportunity for anti- 400 3 social behaviour. 300 200

1 Humberside Police (2009) Joint Strategic Intelligence Assessment Safer Communities, North 100 East Lincolnshire. 2 Humberside Police (2009) Special analysis. 0 3 NEL Local Strategic Partnership (2007) East Marsh (Grant Thorold) Neighbourhood Domestic burglary Criminal damage Violence against person Investment Plan. NEL Council. Source: Humberside Police (A Division) (2009) Special Analysis. Summary and way forward

Key message 1: Grimsby’s East Marsh Neighbourhood has been caught in a vicious cycle of decline for 30 years Key message 2: Designation of a Neighbourhood Renewal Area creates an opportunity for optimizing investment to enhance the social and economic life of East Marsh residents 22 North East Lincolnshire Council has designated a Neighbourhood Yet it is evident that the ebb tide has not yet turned. Despite special Renewal Area in Grimsby’s East Marsh ward which takes a more programmes run by NELC and partners in addition to mainstream holistic approach to regeneration than has become the norm in investment, East Marsh remains on a downward trajectory. All sections England. Besides housing improvement, NELC and of our report add to the official neighbourhood partners are investing in economic, educational, Figure 34: Vicious cycle profile of a very deprived community. The housing environmental, health and social aspects of commu- section reveals over 40% of the housing stock is Problem nity life to encourage sustainable development. below Decent Homes standard. The economy t n n y e y g o t h

i section reports the proportion of residents unem- i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e r o u o

Building on the cutting-edge Integrated Impact i ployed or on Incapacity Benefit is way above the e H c v d S H E n E

Assessment pioneered by NELC, our report first E national average. identifies the challenges posed by this very deprived neighbourhood and second how the problems in Our own survey shows the proportion of East Marsh every on of the key domains has a negative impact residents without qualifications is three times the t n n y e y g o t

on other domains. Third, we summarise how invest- h national average. Residents also report great dissat- i i m n t m t i l r o n s a u a n u c o c e r

ment in each domains (housing for example) has o isfaction with their living environment. NHS statis- u o i e H c v d S H E n E

the potential to impact positively on another domain E tics show East Marsh as the worst performing NEL

(such as health). This potential has not materi- Impact ward for coronary heart disease and according to alised. So fourth, we conclude by recommending the Government Department for Work and how, in the current economic downturn, a sharper focus on cost-benefit Pensions, there are big mental health problems. Finally, police statis- analysis across all sectors would guide decision-makers towards the tics show East Marsh has the worst crime record in the whole of North optimal mix of investments to maximise impact. East Lincolnshire.

Vicious cycle of decline Challenges The dynamic accounting model which introduces our report (and each We report an impressive family of partnerships in North East of the sections) can be turned on its head to reveal a vicious cycle of Lincolnshire, from the overarching Local Strategic Partnership to those decline which has characterised East Marsh since the collapse of the focusing on one aspect of community life in East Marsh. We reference fish catching industry 30 years ago. Poor employment prospects have many reports which identify problems and solutions. Declaration of a led to the out-migration of skilled workers and their replacement by Neighbourhood Renewal Area is the latest in a long line of initiatives. poorer, less healthy incomers. Poor housing conditions have exacer- bated health problems and encouraged crime. Residents with few or no qualifications are more likely to be unemployed. Poor health has damaged employment prospects and reduced income. Crime and fear of crime have damaged health, especially mental health, leading to higher levels of unemployment. A new neighbourhood dynamic for Grimsby’s East Marsh

Summary and way forward

Priorities Figure 35: Four capitals model of sustainability shows that decisions about where to live taken by healthier and skilled Social Our Integrated Impact Assessment reveals a capital people are sensitive to the local complex economic and social dynamic in “amenity offer”: clean streets, safe Grimsby’s East Marsh. Every aspect of Human community streets, good schools and public capital well-being community life is connected to others. Every Benefits services, access to “green” and 23 significant problem creates waves. Every local Fixed sustainable “blue” spaces and a high degree of development investment, every project or programme, has capital social cohesion. We commend the the potential to make a positive impact on Environmental East Marsh Refresh initiative to residents’ lives. We recommend policy capital improve the environment and the makers utilize the IIA protocol to comprehend local Involve Partnership for the wider significance of their actions and strengthen their partnerships. empowering residents to shape the future of the area.

Policy makers and decision takers cannot do everything at once. There are limits to staff resources. Budget constraints are set to tighten. So Creating a virtuous circle there must be priorities. It is not within our remit to suggest detailed policy programmes. Our research does however provide evidence and National and international evidence suggests that cause and effect run analysis to help policy makers and the community chart a way forward. both ways between some domains, such as health and economy. Healthier residents are less likely to be jobless and higher paid when in employment. In turn, employment leads to greater material pros- Boosting employment perity and improves health. We recommend sustained effort to create this “multiplier” effect, converting the vicious cycle of decline into a A priority is to boost employment by coordinating policy interventions. virtuous circle of improvement. For most adults of working age, paid employment is the only sustain- able source of material prosperity. Our neighbourhood profile shows employment and income strongly correlated with good health, skills and Cost-effective interventions qualifications, described by economists as human capital. The relation- ship means that an area cannot enjoy high rates of employment and A squeeze on public spending puts a greater premium on cost-effective wage income without high levels of human capital. It is one of four interventions. Most investments do some good but some deliver more neighbourhood assets essential to the well-being of a neighbourhood benefit per pound than others. Local and national evidence on cost (figure 35). We commend the strategy ‘Strengthening Economic Well- effectiveness is not extensive but it does point to: being in North East Lincolnshire’ as applied to East Marsh. G Housing investment in security and target hardening as a means of reducing anxiety caused by domestic burglaries and thus of improving health and labour market performance Improving social cohesion and the environment G Cognitive behaviour therapy as a means of reducing joblessness The employment performance of an area will deteriorate if caused by anxiety healthier/more skilled residents move out and are replaced by in- G Investment in so-called “soft” labour market skills – such as movers with poorer health and lower skills. So it is important to make motivation, and the personal and social skills involved in effec- East Marsh attractive; to retain residents with higher levels of human tive job search. capital and encourage others to move in from elsewhere. US evidence 1 On the housing front, tighter regulation of slum landlords and invest- ment in social housing will help resolve the paradox of rising house 1 Glaeser EL., Kolko J. & Saiz A. (2001) Consumer City. Journal of Economic Geography 1. pp27-50. prices and deteriorating housing conditions. 24 August 2009

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