Japan’s Foreign Policy Agenda after the Upper House Election: Where Shinzo Abe Will Try to Take Japanese Diplomacy

By Ken Jimbo, Keio University

Golden Opportunity for degraded ’s political presence tendency. At this moment, no leads the Abe Administration in the international arena. or gambits are at hand to bring about a Japan-China summit. South he Liberal Democratic Party The results of the two national Korea is seemingly rapidly tilting and its coalition partner, elections, which have consolidated toward China, as demonstrated T New , followed up the Abe administration’s political by President Park Geun-hye’s visit their landslide victory in December’s capital more firmly than at any other to China in June. As it does, it Lower House election by also time in the past six years, bring Japan appears to be drawing away from securing a working majority in the a golden opportunity to advance Japan. Abe’s strong commitment to Upper House election in July. As a its foreign policy goals. In general, resolving the abduction issue with result, the government led by Prime domestic stability creates favorable during the present Minister Shinzo Abe is entitled to conditions for making a grand administration is not readily bring Japanese politics some long- bargain in diplomacy. This is not only achievable. Negotiations with Russia awaited stability, given the absence of because internal stability generates on the Northern Territories allow for nation-wide election until July 2016. strong external bargaining power, little optimism despite prospects for The more recent electoral victory but because it also creates better advancing bilateral economic and marked the first time in six years for conditions for making concessions security partnerships. It can also the ruling parties to hold majorities at home. If skillfully managed, Abe’s be anticipated that participation in both the Upper House and Lower long-term leadership, with a high in the Trans-Pacific Partnership House. Japanese politics had been public support rate, can become the (TPP) can involve domestic suffering from a so-called “twisted prime minister’s most crucial foreign economic reforms that would have Diet,” in which the Upper House policy asset as he plays a two-level considerable repercussions. was ruled by the opposition. This international/domestic game. divide effectively undermined crucial It will be tough for Abe to achieve decision-making. And the frequent However, the Abe administration everything or any on his foreign changes of leaderships — Japan has is facing an ever more challenging policy agenda during his three had six prime ministers, nine foreign geopolitical environment, especially golden years. Pushing through ministers and nine defense ministers that close by. China has heightened his priorities will require not in the past six years — conspicuously its wariness regarding the Abe only assertive diplomacy, but also administration’s so-called rightward continuous negotiations. Along the

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way, compromises and concessions in more realistic directions. In understanding and acceptance within Japan will become necessary. January, Prime Minister Abe, Foreign of his pro-growth economic The question is whether Japan Minister Fumio Kishida and Finance policies — Abenomics. These will be able to develop the kind of Minister Taro Aso visited members diplomatic efforts have been guided pragmatic political environment of the Association of Southeast Asian by a multifaceted pragmatism of the that makes these offensives Nations (ASEAN). During the trip, Abe government, and they represent and compromises possible. they unveiled the Five Principles areas of great potential promise. of Japan’s ASEAN Diplomacy, with ‘Favorable Balance of Power’ a focus on economic and security The Abe administration’s foreign cooperation. During his visit to policy doctrine has now been Is it possible, then, for this kind of the in February, in frequently stated as “diplomacy pragmatism to be brought to bear addition to confirming the solidarity that takes a panoramic perspective under the Abe government? At the of the Japan-U.S. alliance, Prime of the world map.” In other words, outset of the new administration, Minister Abe joined in issuing a it takes a bird’s-eye view of global Prime Minister Abe himself statement that TPP negotiations affairs. In responding to the changing announced, on an overseas website, would not be predicated on the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific the concept of a “security diamond” elimination of tariffs on all items. region, Tokyo recognizes the need in Asia that is formed by Japan, the On that basis, he announced in to pursue multifaceted and strategic United States, Australia, and India. March his government’s intention diplomatic relations that cover and He also expressed the intention to to officially participate in TPP go beyond the region. Under this engage in a brand of diplomacy that negotiations. In April, the prime concept, Prime Minister Abe, in emphasizes such values as freedom, minister announced a joint political the eight months since he entered democracy, respect for human declaration with NATO that deepens office, has tirelessly visited 20 rights and the rule of law. This Japan’s security partnership with the countries. He has made the Japan- conveyed the impression in Japan western alliance. During a visit to U.S. alliance the main axis of his and elsewhere that the diplomatic Russia, also in April, Abe tightened approach while also strengthening ideology of values symbolized consultative ties on both economic relations with emerging economies by the first Abe government’s and security matters, and confirmed and developing countries. Prime “arc of freedom and prosperity” the acceleration of negotiations Minister Abe’s direction in this is was making its appearance here toward a peace treaty. Then, during discernible. Japan is pursuing its with a greater determination his visit to Europe for the G-8 Summit own version of ‘favorable strategic to place checks on China. in June, the prime minister again balance’ and ‘favorable balance of sought to strengthen relations, relations’ to optimize its strategic As diplomatic policy has actually this time with Eastern European position in the Asia-Pacific region. played out, however, it has countries, while also exerting increasingly made course corrections himself to obtain international

No. 86 2 September 2013 Difficulties with China, South Korea Prime Minister Abe places Japan-China relations as “one of Japan’s most important bilateral An evaluation of the Abe relationships” and expressed that “the door to government’s first eight months dialogue is always open.” However, the sides have cannot omit certain issues where results have not necessarily been not fomented a political environment conducive achieved — relations with China to bringing about high-level Japan-China talks. and South Korea. Prime Minister Abe places Japan-China relations as “one of Japan’s most important skillful diplomacy. Both sides must expressed remorse and apologized for bilateral relationships” and expressed tacitly agree to maintain the status- Japan’s past aggression and colonial that “the door to dialogue is always quo and not provoke an escalation. rule, and instead release his own, open.” However, the sides have not future-oriented Abe Statement. Given fomented a political environment Another issue is the conservative this context, two of his remarks conducive to bringing about ideology in Japan in terms of its have led to backlashes in China and high-level Japan-China talks. perspective on history. While South Korea: “The Cabinet does not campaigning before the December necessarily inherit the Murayama Prospects for normalizing diplomatic election, Prime Minister Abe Statement just as it is.” And, “The relations between Tokyo and Beijing expressed “great regret at being definition of invasion is unspecified.” remain dark. China frequently unable to pay respects at Yasukuni engages in intrusive behavior, Shrine while serving as prime At present, Prime Minister Abe has violating territorial waters around minister” during his previous term not specified whether he intends the Senkaku Islands with patrol in office, from September 2006 to to visit Yasukuni Shrine to pay boats and other vessels, and there September 2007. Regarding the his respects during his term. He are no signs of it scaling down Yasukuni Shrine visits by Cabinet has also said historical problems these activities. If China demands members in April, Prime Minister should be left to historians. From that Japan first recognize the Abe stated that “my Cabinet the perspectives of China and South existence of a territorial issue over members will not yield to any Korea, if they make too much of the Senkaku Islands before it agrees intimidation.” Looking ahead to the Japan’s history problem as part of to hold a summit, the opportunities 2015 70th anniversary of the end their Japan policies, they risk losing for dialogue will narrow. Not even of World War II in Japan, Prime a path to improved relations. Japan, shelving the territorial issue would Minister Abe has suggested that he China, and South Korea will need be acceptable since Tokyo insists intends to reconsider former Prime to avoid politicizing the history there is no territorial issue to be Minister Tomiichi Murayama’s problem. Their key government shelved. The situation demands 50th anniversary statement, which officials and politicians will need

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to avoid causing friction by the gratuitous venting of emotions. A In order to deepen Japan-U.S. defense political environment that enables the stable diplomatic pursuit of cooperation, therefore, the Abe government is Japan-China and Japan-South Korea seeking the acceptance of the right of collective relations will have to be formed. self-defense to include security for U.S. naval vessels on the high seas and missile defense The Possibilities of of the Unites States mainland and islands. Japanese Diplomacy

One wonders, then, what diplomatic though, has strong reservations about The second objective is to strengthen objectives the Abe government changing the interpretation of Japan’s relations with India, Australia, and will set for the coming three-year war-renouncing Constitution and ASEAN. These economies are keys period, and what it will try to is very likely to seek a compromise in a multifaceted diplomatic strategy, achieve? The following discusses the that would limit the scope of any and efforts are being made to find principal objectives to be set and “collective self-defense” operations. ways of strengthening collaboration the possibilities of their realization. with them, especially on matters Expanding Japan’s duties and of maritime security. Attention is The first of these is to deepen the defense roles is also important for particularly focused on implementing alliance between Japan and the U.S. the formulation of new National joint military exercises, supporting and, as a part of that, to change the Defense Planning Guidelines (NDPG). their building up maritime security political interpretation of collective As tensions rise to the southwest of capabilities (supplying equipment self-defense. Japan and the U.S. are Japan’s main archipelago, particularly for that purpose, and making use groping toward the formulation of in the seas around the Senkaku of strategic ODA), and collaborating new defense cooperation guidelines Islands, the part Japan should play to strengthen the rule of law. in view of the rise of China and in a low-intensity conflict at sea is the uncertainties about North increasing. Seamless coordination The third diplomatic objective has Korea. In order to deepen Japan- by the Japan Coast Guard and to do with Russia. The Abe-Putin U.S. defense cooperation, therefore, the Maritime Self Defense Forces summit in April yielded an agreement the Abe government is seeking the should be established by means of on deepening Japan-Russia economic acceptance of the right of collective the NDPG, slated to be drafted at and security cooperation and self-defense to include security for the end of this year. On that basis, accelerating peace treaty negotiations U.S. naval vessels on the high seas the system for crisis escalation to include the Northern Territories and missile defense of the United management, including the role of issue. Japan-Russia relations appear States mainland and islands. The U.S. forces, needs to be strengthened. to have started moving, all of a coalition partner New Komeito, sudden, but it still will not do to

No. 86 4 September 2013 be optimistic about peace treaty negotiations or resolution of the Northern Territories issue. However, It is of the greatest importance for the security Russia is actively pursuing a Japan of the region that both Japan and China set policy to help promote such matters conditions that are mutually acceptable and that as Far Eastern and Eastern Siberian they restore summit-level diplomatic activity. development and energy exports. Meanwhile, Russia is also putting more into its shift toward the rest diplomatic activity. In a context of can be constructed and whether of Asia, including Japan, as a hedge accelerating movement in U.S.-China mutually beneficial relations can of its China policy. These moves summits and U.S.-China Strategic be built that reflect the reality present important opportunities and Economic Dialogue meetings, of the two countries’ mutual for dramatic improvement in the fact that political channels economic interdependence. Japan-Russia relations. between Japan and China are not well established is cause for concern. Ken Jimbo is an Associate Professor, Finally, the fourth and most Faculty of Policy Management, important issue here is Japan’s The biggest questions for the next Keio University in Tokyo. He is relations with China. Prime Minister three years will be whether the concurrently a Senior Research Abe has long advocated improvement escalation of Japan-China tensions Fellow, the Canon Institute for Global of “mutually beneficial strategic can be held in check, whether a Studies and the Tokyo Foundation. relations” with China. Even though crisis management mechanism eight months have passed since he took office, the prime minister has neither held a Japan-China Publisher & Editor: Hiroshi Nakayama, summit nor a Japan-China-South Keizai Koho Center Korea summit or foreign ministers’ http://www.kkc.or.jp/english/index.html conference. The Senkaku Islands KEIDANREN KAIKAN Floor 19 problem and the history problem lie 3-2 Otemachi 1-chome between Japan and China. The two Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004 Japan countries are now struggling over the Phone: +81-3-6741-0031 Fax: +81-3-6741-0032 [email protected] preconditions for holding a summit. Keizai Koho Center (KKC) is an independent, non-profit organization designed to promote the It is of the greatest importance for understanding of Japan’s economy and society at home and abroad. Its financial resources are derived entirely from the private sector. the security of the region that both Japan and China set conditions KKC fosters a deeper understanding of Japan’s basic social structure. Furthermore, it conducts public affairs activities to improve the Japanese people’s recognition of Japan’s global role. that are mutually acceptable and The views expressed in this newsletter are of the contributors and do not necessarily represent that they restore summit-level those of the Keizai Koho Center.

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