Political Parties, Partisanship, and the 2013 Presidential Elections:
Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in Kenya
Highlights from Round 5 Release Event 1, January 2012
University of Nairobi Institute for Development Studies www.afrobarometer.org ids.uonbi.ac.ke
1 What is the Afrobarometer?
• The Afrobarometer (AB) is a comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues.
• The AB is an independent, non-partisan, African-based network of researchers.
• The first round of surveys took place in 1999-2001 in 12 countries. The Network is now conducting “Round 5” surveys in up to 35 countries during 2011-2012.
• Purpose: To measure popular perspectives on the social, political, and economic environments in each country where it is implemented and across Africa.
• Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
www.afrobarometer.org 2 Survey Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens o all respondents are randomly selected o every adult citizen has an equal and known chance of being selected • Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice • Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability • The survey interviewed 2400 adult Kenyans; A sample of this size yields results with a margin of error of +/- 2 % at a 95% confidence level. • Field work for Round 5 in Kenya was conducted between November 2 and November 29 in 2011. • Afrobarometer’s work in Kenya is coordinated and carried out by the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi which is also the Afrobarometer Core Partner overseeing all AB Network activities within the East African region.
www.afrobarometer.org 3 Country Coverage: 1999-2012 Round 1, 1999-2001, 12 countries • Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe • West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria • East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda Round 2, 2002-2003, 16 countries • Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal Round 3, 2005-2006, 18 countries • Benin, Madagascar Round 4, 2008-2009, 20 countries • Burkina Faso, Liberia Round 5, 2008-2009, up to 35 countries • Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mauritius, Niger, Togo, and Sierra Leone • Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia will be covered in collaboration with the Arab Barometer • Others countries to be identified www.afrobarometer.org 4 Country Coverage: 1999-2012
www.afrobarometer.org 5 Who is the Afrobarometer?
An African-led Network of survey researchers and analysts: • In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Kenya, the National Partner is the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi. • Four Core Partners provide technical assistance and Network management: o Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Ghana o Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa), South Africa o Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, Kenya o Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP), Benin • Two Support Units for capacity building and quality assurance o Michigan State University o University of Cape Town • Round 5 Core Funders include DFID, SIDA, USAID and the Mo Ibrahim Foundation www.afrobarometer.org 6 Survey Demographics Kenya Round 5
Weighted Un-weighted Mean Age 41 41 Gender Male 50% 50% Female 50% 50% Location Urban 36% 38% Rural 64% 62% Education None 7% 7% Primary 35% 36% Secondary 40% 40% Higher 18% 17%
www.afrobarometer.org 7 Survey Demographics (cont.)
Weighted Un-weighted Region / Province Nairobi 10% 10% Central 13% 13% Eastern 15% 15% Rift Valley 25% 25% Nyanza 13% 13% Western 10% 10% North Eastern 5% 5% Coast 9% 9% Ethnic Group Kikuyu 20% 20% Luhya 15% 15% Luo 13% 12% Kamba 10% 11% Kalenjin 8% 9% All other groups 34% 33%
www.afrobarometer.org 8 Kenya Round 5 Survey Results: Political Parties, Partisanship, and Elections
www.afrobarometer.org 9 Key Findings • Kenyans appear to be losing confidence in the value of multiparty competition. Fewer respondents believe that they are essential to offer people real choice now (61%) than in 2005 (73%). • They feel this way despite the fact that a plurality (41%) believes that the 2010 constitution is improving party discipline. • A sizeable majority claims affiliation with a political party, yet fewer respondents feel close to a political party now (61%) than in 2008 (70%). • A substantial minority of respondents (19%), especially women (23%), do not know which party’s presidential candidate they would vote for if the elections were held tomorrow. • Some regions of Kenya are highly partisan, but no party’s presidential candidate gained more than 35% of respondents’ support nationally. • Based on these findings, no party can be confident of gaining 50% of the presidential vote in the next election. The vote is divided among several leading parties, and many are still undecided.
www.afrobarometer.org 10 Attitudes toward Political Parties
Which of the following statements is closest to your view: • Statement A: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in Kenya. • Statement B: Many political parties are needed to make sure that Kenyans have real choices in who governs them. 80% 73% 71% 70% 61% 60%
50%
40% 33%
30% 25% 23% 20%
10% 5% 3% 4% 0% 2005 2008 2011 Many parties needed Parties are divisive, unnecessary Neither/DK
www.afrobarometer.org 11 2010 Constitution and Party Discipline
Since the promulgation of the Kenya Constitution 2010, would you say it has made discipline within political parties much worse, worse, the same, better, or much better?
40% 36% 35%
30% 26% 25%
20% 19%
15% 11% 10% 5% 5% 4%
0% Much worse Worse Same Better Much Better Don't Know
www.afrobarometer.org 12 Levels of Partisanship
Do you feel close to any particular political party? Partisanship 70%
61% 60%
50%
39% 40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Yes, feels close to a party No, does not feel close to any party
www.afrobarometer.org 13 Levels of Partisanship over Time
Do you feel close to any particular political party?
80%
70% 70% 68% 67%
61% 60%
50%
40% 39% 32% 33% 30% 30%
20%
10%
0% 2003 2005 2008 2011 Yes, feels close to a party No, does not feel close to any party
www.afrobarometer.org 14 Levels of Partisanship (Gender)
Do you feel close to any particular political party? Gender 80%
70% 67%
60% 54%
50% 46%
40% 33% 30%
20%
10%
0% male female Yes, feels close to a party No, does not feel close to any party
www.afrobarometer.org 15 Levels of Partisanship (Region)
Do you feel close to any particular political party?
Partisanship by Region 90% 82% 80% 71% 71% 70% 66%
60% 56% 56%
50% 44% 45% 40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Nairobi Central Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western North Eastern Coast
www.afrobarometer.org 16 Levels of Partisanship (Urban/Rural)
Do you feel close to any particular political party?
Location 70% 65%
60% 53%
50% 47%
40% 35%
30%
20%
10%
0% urban rural Yes, feels close to a party No, does not feel close to any party
www.afrobarometer.org 17 Partisan Affiliation
(Of the 61% of Kenyans that feel close to a party) Which party is that? Political Party Percent
Orange Democratic Movement Party (ODM) 30
Party of National Unity (PNU) 15
ODM-Kenya (Wiper) 3
United Democratic Party of Kenya (UDM) 2
Kenya African National Union (KANU) 1
All Other Parties 9
Refused to Answer/Don’t Know 1
www.afrobarometer.org 18 Presidential Elections
If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?
Political Party Percent Orange Democratic Movement Party (ODM) 35 Party of National Unity (PNU) 21 ODM-Kenya (Wiper) 5 United Democratic Party of Kenya (UDM) 3 Kenya African National Union (KANU) 2 NARK-Kenya 2 Would Not Vote 4 Other Parties 3 Don’t Know 19 Refused to Answer 7
www.afrobarometer.org 19 Vote Choice (Gender)
If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?
40% 36% 35% 33%
30%
25% 22% 23% 20% 19% 16% 15% 15% 13%
10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4%
0% ODM PNU Other Parties Would not Refused to Don't Know Vote Answer Male Female
www.afrobarometer.org 20 Vote Choice (Urban/Rural)
If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?
40% 35%35% 35%
30%
25% 21%20% 20% 20% 18% 15% 15% 13%
10% 9% 6% 5% 5% 4%
0% ODM PNU Other Parties Would not Refused to Don't Know Vote Answer Urban Rural
www.afrobarometer.org 21 Vote Choice (Region)
If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?
70% 67%
60% 60% 55%
50%
40% 38% 38% 34% 29% 29% 30% 27% 24% 21% 19% 19% 19% 20% 17% 16% 13% 14% 10% 11% 10% 7% 4% 3% 3% 0% Nairobi Central Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western North Coast Eastern ODM PNU Other Parties
www.afrobarometer.org 22 Vote Choice (Region Cont’d)
If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?
30% 26%
25% 24%
19% 20% 18% 17%
15% 13% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 9% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 0% Nairobi Central Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western North Coast Eastern Would not Vote Refused to Answer Don't Know
www.afrobarometer.org 23 Conclusions
• Since 2005, a growing number of Kenyans view political parties as divisive and unnecessary and fewer Kenyans believe that many political parties are needed to make sure they have real choice in who governs them.
• While levels of partisanship remained relatively stable from 2003 (68%) to 2005 (67%) to 2008 (70%), far fewer Kenyans feel closer to a party in 2011 (61%). Gender, regional location, and urban/rural residency are all statistically significant predictors of partisanship in 2011.
• Across Kenya, a sizeable minority of respondents, ranging from 11% in Western to 26% in Central, do not know who they would vote for if the presidential elections were held tomorrow. 23% of women responded they don’t know compared to 15% of men.
• No political party’s candidate attained more than 35% support (nationally) when Kenyans were asked which party’s candidate they would vote for if the elections were held tomorrow, indicating a likely second round in the 2013 Presidential election.
• 41% of Kenyans believe the 2010 Constitution has made the discipline of political parties better or much better compared to 15% who think it has made party discipline much worse or worse. www.afrobarometer.org 24
For more information and publications, please contact Abel Oyuke Afrobarometer Program Manager at IDS: [email protected] or [email protected] and visit the Afrobarometer website at: www.afrobarometer.org.
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