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The Post-Covid-19 Global System: Old Problems New Trends

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The Post-Covid-19 Global System: Old Problems New Trends THE POST-COVID-19 GLOBAL SYSTEM: OLD PROBLEMS NEW TRENDS SAM Publications ANTALYA DIPLOMACY FORUM The Post-COVID-19 Global System: Old Problems, New Trends The Post-COVID-19 Global System: Old Problems, New Trends Center for Strategic Research & Antalya Diplomacy Forum Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs ANTALYA DIPLOMACY FORUM THE POST COVID-19 GLOBAL SYSTEM: OLD PROBLEMS, NEW TRENDS Original Title COVID-19 SONRASI KÜRESEL SİSTEM: ESKİ SORUNLAR, YENİ TRENDLER Edited by Center for Strategic Research Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Turkey Cover & Design Ali Burak CESUR Translated by Doğan EŞKİNAT Print & Binding MATSA Printing House ANKARA Year of Publication 2020 ISBN 978-975-7307-75-4 EDITORIAL BOARD YAVUZ SELİM KIRAN Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey UFUK ULUTAŞ Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Center for Strategic Research MESUT ÖZCAN Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Diplomacy Academy SİBEL ERKAN Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Center for Strategic Research MEHMET ZEKİ GÜNAY Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Center for Strategic Research TALHA KÖSE Ibn Haldun University FOREWORD OVID-19 has spread all around the world, and has come to threaten humanity itself over the course of a short period of time. Nor has the virus yet reached Cits peak. Governments, along with the relevant international organizations and individuals, have an important responsibility to reduce new infections and help life get back to normal. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey continues to take the necessary steps decisively within its borders. At the same time, we remain in close contact with other countries. We share our experiences and knowledge with a large number of nations, including our neighbors. We coordinate our actions and, to the best of our ability, make concrete contributions to the global fight against the pandemic. Foreword 9 Our ministry’s internal and external organizations continue to work on high alert. We maintain constant contact with Turkish citizens abroad. Our Consular Call Center, which operates around the clock, enables our citizens to contact our ministry at all times. Our newly-formed Coordination and Support Center facilitates coordination between our central organization, representative offices abroad and other public institutions. We address our citizens’ problems and needs through regular contact with the authorities of their countries of residence. At the same time, we facilitate the return of our citizens and students, who enjoy temporary status abroad, to their homeland. We initially evacuated a total of 39,000 Turkish citizens from more than 70 countries. We continue to work to facilitate the return of our citizens who are temporarily abroad and would like to come back to our country. Naturally, our logistical efforts vis-à-vis the coronavirus pandemic’s medical and consular aspects remain our top priority. We are aware, however, that the current crisis must be analyzed from a broader perspective as well. We are already assessing what awaits us in the international arena after this crucial turning point in history, as well as the challenges and opportunities for which we must prepare. Our proactive and realistic approach to foreign policy, too, requires us to do more than merely monitor and respond to developments. The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to trigger a transformation whose impact could continue to manifest itself in many areas for many long years. Scholars of international relations have already begun to build a literature on this subject. The Center for Strategic Research (SAM), which builds bridges between our ministry, the academic realm and think tanks, analyzes studies about the coronavirus pandemic’s potential impact on the international system and makes available its findings to our nation’s relevant institutions. 10 The Post-COVID-19 Global System: Old Problems, New Trends During this period, we attach special importance to the assessments of Turkish academics. How do they interpret the latest developments? What kind of post-COVID-19 international system will we encounter? What key global trends can we expect after the pandemic? What threats await us? What opportunities will we find in the future? SAM reached out to respected academics from a variety of Turkish universities and asked them these urgent questions. Their responses are published in this book, which it is my pleasure to introduce. That this project was rapidly completed in the pandemic’s early stages deserves recognition. I extend my gratitude to all of the academics who contributed to this publication, and to the SAM team. I am confident that we will overcome this challenging time soon enough through the spirit of solidarity. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu Minister of Foreign Affairs Republic of Turkey 11 EDITOR UFUK ULUTAŞ AUTHORS ALTAY ATLI BİROL AKGÜN BURHANETTİN DURAN CAN KASAPOĞLU EMRAH ZARİFOĞLU EMRE ERŞEN ERSEL AYDINLI FERHAT PİRİNÇÇİ GİRAY SADIK GÖKHAN YÜCEL KADİR TEMİZ M. ŞÜKRÜ HANİOĞLU MEHMET ÖZAY MELTEM MÜFTÜLER-BAÇ MERVE SEREN MESUT ÖZCAN MUSTAFA AYDIN MUSTAFA KİBAROĞLU NİHAT ALİ ÖZCAN NURŞİN ATEŞOĞLU-GÜNEY OKTAY F. TANRISEVER ONUR UNUTULMAZ SEDAT AYBAR TALHA KÖSE TUNCAY KARDAŞ UFUK ULUTAŞ *** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 12 The Post-COVID-19 Global System: Old Problems, New Trends CONTENTS 1. Post-Coronavirus Global Trends ...........................................14 Ufuk ULUTAŞ 2. The Global System Under the Thread of Global Pandemics ....................................................................................24 Meltem MÜFTÜLER-BAÇ 3. The Post-COVID-19 World Order: Two Options ..............28 M. Şükrü HANİOĞLU 4. After the Coronavirus, A New World (Dis)Order? ............33 Burhanettin DURAN 5. Pandemics and the Resilience of the International System ...........................................................................................39 Ersel AYDINLI 6. COVID-19 and the International Order ..............................44 Mustafa AYDIN 7. Rethinking the COVID-19 Pandemic ..................................49 Tuncay KARDAŞ 8. Positive Decoupling in the Post-COVID-19 Period ...........54 Mustafa KİBAROĞLU 9. Will COVID-19 Spell the Death of Globalization? .............58 Altay ATLI 10. The Coronavirus, Globalization and the International System ..................................................................62 Emre ERŞEN 11. COVID-19, the Nation State and the Risk Society ...........66 Mehmet ÖZAY 12. Corona-lization in the International System .....................71 Ferhat PİRİNÇÇİ 13. After the Coronavirus Pandemic, Nothing will be the Same Again with International Relations Theories (or Will it?) ...................................................................................75 Oktay F. TANRISEVER Contents 13 14. COVID-19 and the Role of International Institutions .....80 Birol AKGÜN 15. Post-COVID-19 Global Security and the State of Defense .....................................................................86 Can KASAPOĞLU 16. The Rise of Medical Intelligence..........................................90 Merve SEREN 17. The Coronavirus Pandemic as a National Security Issue ...............................................................................96 Nihat Ali ÖZCAN 18. Post-COVID-19 Trends in Global Security .................... 101 Giray SADIK 19. Geopolitical Reflections of the Dynamics of Global Economic Transformation ..................................................... 106 Sedat AYBAR 20. Post-COVID-19 Global Economic Trends .................... 111 Emrah ZARİFOĞLU 21. The Coronavirus and the Dynamics of Global Conflict ......................................................................... 116 Talha KÖSE 22. What Will COVID-19 Change in the Middle East? ...... 122 Nurşin ATEŞOĞLU-GÜNEY 23. The Coronavirus Pandemic’s Potential Impact on the Middle East ............................................................................... 126 Mesut ÖZCAN 24. Coronavirus and China ..................................................... 133 Kadir TEMİZ 25. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Migration ...................... 138 Onur UNUTULMAZ 26. COVID-19, the New Normal and Digital Diplomacy .................................................................... 143 Gökhan YÜCEL POST-CORONAVIRUS GLOBAL TRENDS Ufuk ULUTAŞ Director, Center for Strategic Research Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Keywords State, Multilateralism, U.S.-China Rivalry, Turkey he question if the coronavirus pandemic will result in major transformations, or even ruptures, on a global scale dates back to the moment when the outbreak Textended beyond Wuhan’s city limits. As the pandemic evolved into a global phenomenon and came to affect a broad range of areas, including the healthcare sector, supply chains, the economy and social relations—virtually all aspects of life—it inevitably had a transformative impact on global politics. In light of the most recent developments, the public debate is currently focused on the looming transformation’s extent and whether it will lead to global systemic shifts, instead of the likelihood of a transformation. Based on a cautious analysis, it is possible to predict that the COVID-19 pandemic will result in paradigm shifts akin to those of the 9/11 terror attacks and the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, and accelerate the ongoing Post-Coronavirus Global Trends 15 scrutiny of the international system rather than leading
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