A lasting political crisis

Situation on 11.09.2019 D P S-E C T

Since its election in 12/2016, the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) has been fragilized by a series of scandals, notably related to corruption cases, and three different Prime Ministers have been appointed in 2 years.

This political crisis has spread to the streets, where significant demonstrations have taken place to ask for the government’s resignation.

Though the first round of the presidential election is planned on 10/11, early legislative elections could occur late 2019 / early 2020 if the government, which has lost its parliamentary majority after its coalition partner (liberal party Alde) withdrew from power, does not manage to Source (map): French Ministry of Foreign Affairs stabilize the situation.

SITUATION OVERVIEW: OLD UNDERLYING TENSIONS

The current political crisis started in 12/2016, after the legislative elections, during which the Social Democratic KEY DATES Party (PSD) won 136 seats out of 329. Thanks to this score, 29.01.2018: Nomination of the 3rd which was not enough to have a parliamentary majority, the PM in 1 year, Viorica Dăncilă. PSD became the new ruling party along with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE – 19 seats), gathered in a 26.05.2019: Referendum coalition government. Back then, the leader of the PSD organised by President Iohannis was , but he had been convicted earlier that regarding the controversial justice year for trying to fix a referendum. However, he became reforms wanted by the ruling Speaker of the Romanian Chamber of Deputies on party. 11/12/2016 and has, since then, remained behind the scenes to instruct the government. He notably backed a 11.08.2019: Demonstration of controversial plan to commute sentences for certain non- thousands of people in violent crimes, seen by the opposition as a way to allow to ask for the government’s already sentenced corrupt politicians to go unpunished. resignation. Despite the opposition, the bill was secretly adopted in the night of 31/01/2019, which led to a series of massive 27.08.2019: Withdrawal of the nationwide protests, asking for the government’s ALDE from the coalition resignation and early elections. In the meantime, Viorica government. Dăncilă has been the 3rd Prime Minister appointed in 1 year, after the first one, Sorin Grindeanu was dismissed, and 31.08.2019: PM announced she the second one, , resigned. The tensions would file a lawsuit against the mentioned have been underlying Romanian politics for the President. last two years, with demonstrations regularly occurring to protest against the government (last one on 11/08/2019) and have reached a new peak last July.

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A “FLAWED” DEMOCRACY

1/The current political crisis is rooted in the country’s fragmented and instable semi-presidential political system, dubbed a “flawed democracy”1 which affects the very head of the State. Romanian President has strongly expressed his discontent towards the ruling party, arguing that it was undermining the rule of law. Thus, he organised a referendum on 26/05 on whether to approve a ban on any amnesty for corruption-related offences and on whether to approve a ban on emergency decrees to change criminal penalties. Both proposals were approved by wide margins, strengthening Klaus Iohannis’ position and weakening the ruling party’s, a power balance that should be confirmed during the coming presidential elections (11/2019), during which the current PM Viorica Dăncilă will represent the PSD. However, tensions between the two heads of state will not ease any soon, as the PM announced, on 31/08, she would file a lawsuit against the President, who refused to approve the newly appointed Ministers. 2/The government itself is instable. On 24/07, a government reshuffle took place and impacted significant portfolios, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of the Interior and the Minister of Defence. Later that month, thousands of people protested to denounce the slow reaction of the authorities to help a 15-year-old girl kidnapped in Caracal, who was killed, leading to the resignation of the Minister of the interior on 31/07, one week after his nomination. After him, 3 other Ministers resigned (Energy, Environment, relations with Parliament) on 27/08. Finally, ALDE withdrew from the coalition government, depriving the latter of its majority in parliament (currently composed of 8 different parties), which should make Romanian politics even more instable in the short term. Thus, the Government currently has six empty minister seats. 3/ Corruption is also at the core of the current political crisis, and Romania is one of the EU’s most corruption-prone states. Despite the crackdown on corruption, notably conducted under the leadership of chief anti-corruption prosecutor, Laura Koevesi, who was dismissed in 2018 by the government for alleged abuse of power, the last three governments have been overshadowed by legal issues surrounding Liviu Dragnea, “strong man” of the country. In 05/2019, despite the numerous policies he had pushed his proxies to carry out to avoid this outcome, the former Speaker of the Romanian Chamber of Deputies was convicted of abuse of office and embezzlement and sent to prison for 3.5 years. PROSPECTIVES AND RECOMMENDATIONS

1/ Though the coming presidential election, expected in 11/2019, will be a good indicator of where the Romanian people stands, it will not change much considering the limited powers Romanian presidents enjoy. Indeed, current President Klaus Iohannis himself admitted he was lacking the means to prevent the vote of bills that could represent “an attack on the rule of law” and he was only able to organise a non-binding referendum. However, the next President could be in charge of dissolving the Parliament if a no confidence motion is voted, which could be an issue if the current PM, also running for the election was elected. Nevertheless, according to the polls, the current President should be re- elected, and the PSD’s Prime Minister should face a severe defeat. 2/ On 06/09, PM Viorica Dăncilă mentioned she would ask for Parliament’s approval to restructure her government. Since the PSD has no longer a majority within Parliament (202 seats out of 465 MPs and 233 votes are required for the proposition to be accepted), there is a significant chance that the proposition will be rejected. This outcome would lead to a new political deadlock, which could then lead to a vote of no confidence against the government. 3/ A no confidence motion against the PSD government could be voted by the opposition parties, whose leaders, especially Dan Barna (USR, centre-right) and Dacian Ciolos (PLUS, centrist), have sent a proposal to the President and the other opposition parties to make a pact for organising early parliamentary elections. It remains unsure when they would take place (01/2020 or 06/2020 same as the local elections), but it would be the first early parliamentary vote in Romania’s post-communist history.

1 The Economist Intelligence Unit rated Romania as a "flawed democracy" in 2016, i.e. a nation where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured but that may have significant faults in other democratic aspects, including issues in the functioning of governance.

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The Liberal Party, frontrunner, would probably win the elections, whereas the PSD would face a new setback. However, due to politics’ fragmentation, no absolute majority would be reached, and the government would probably be composed of a new coalition. Thus, this scenario would not resolve the instability or the corruption issues in the long run, it would at least end the current political crisis. 4/ Uncertainty remains, because many opposition parties are reluctant to initiate a no-confident motion against the Dancila government. Indeed, the clientelist system is such that some parties may have other interests and many MPs may not be willing to end their term earlier. The uncertainty is also related to what will happen if a no-confidence motion is voted. Indeed, another coalition could be formed (the biggest opposition party PNL said it would be willing to form a government) and if it has an absolute majority, early elections would not take place. If it is the case, the new government would be an even broader alliance than the previous one thus instability would remain.

Romania’s situation remains unpredictable. Though the last protests have remained peaceful, there is a risk that demonstrations turn violent (see 10/08/2018, anti-government protest turned violent – more than 450 people injured).

- Foreigners are not particularly target by violence, as the crisis concerns internal issues. However, outbursts of violence or collateral damages and victims of clashes between police and demonstrators can still occur.

- As the presidential election approaches, tensions are expected to raise further. It is recommended to follow local media and avoid any gathering or demonstrations against the established power.

- Vigilance is required especially in Bucharest, near the government buildings (Victoriei Square), but also in other major cities.

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