West End Tracker Report 2016 0II NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 01 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Foreword from Jace Tyrrell

With the excitement of Halloween now behind us, the nation is turning its attention to the upcoming Christmas celebrations set to sweep the nation. To mark this, I am delighted to present New West End Company’s third annual Christmas Tracker report – which takes Jace Tyrrell a deep dive into the spend, footfall and Chief Executive trends expected in the world’s number New West End Company one retail destination over the festive season.

We are the business voice of across the district in August, Indeed in just six months’ time, the West End, representing up 1.5% on the previous year. West End retailers will need to 25 streets across the district find an additional £124m in tax, including the world-famous We expect this positive spell as business rate revaluation, Bond, Oxford and Regent Streets, to continue as we enter the the Apprenticeship Levy and the with over 600 stores and 219 Christmas trading period, National Living Wage all come flagship outlets for globally with foreign spend set to be a into force. These changes will hit renowned brands. key driver. Domestic consumer West End profits by up to 25% confidence, which was tentative in some cases, and retailers will The West End is the economic at the start of the year and need to generate significantly powerhouse for the UK. Within shaken further by the increased sales to keep up just 6.34 hectares, it generates referendum outcome, is also with the hikes. more GVA per year than the City starting to steady as we gear of London and nearly the whole up for Christmas. West End businesses already of Wales. It employs 150,000 contribute significantly to the people, 3% of the total UK A number of exciting attractions £1.8 billion business rates paid by working population, and attracts will draw more shoppers to Westminster businesses, 8% of millions of tourists from around our streets, including the star- the country’s total business rate the world to London to shop on studded and income. Of every pound raised its iconic streets. illuminations across Bond, from Westminster businesses, Oxford and Regent Street, Oxford 96 pence is redistributed outside This year, following the decision Street’s first traffic free day in the city throughout the UK. to leave the EU and the drop in four years and the key shopping the value of the pound, the West dates of and the As we look towards the End enjoyed a strong summer, sales. triggering of Article 50, the proving a crucial economic driver Government must take in an otherwise uncertain and However, the long-term measures to ensure that we fluctuating climate. horizon looks less bright. are not further hampering the Continued uncertainty once the growth and prosperity of our Buoyed by an increase in process of leaving the EU retail heartland, for the benefit international shoppers, the West gets underway in spring is likely of our whole country. End saw a remarkable £400 to affect both consumer and million total spend in July and a business confidence in the subsequent 44% increase in sales two years ahead. 02 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Executive Summary

West End shops are in-store digital technology and made stores more forecast to end a visually attractive to tempt challenging 2016 in shoppers inside. good cheer. For the • Attractions bringing in visitors will be led by the Christmas six weeks running lights switch on across Bond, up to Christmas, till Oxford and Regent Streets. This will include the first traffic- receipts are forecast free event on Oxford Street since 2012. Festive parades to rise by 1.6% to and in-store promotions will £2.34billion. also delight the public.

• The West End will continue to • Increased spending by boost the UK’s economy with international shoppers in the a Gross Value Added (GVA) of West End – from an average £5.4billion over the festive spend per person of £918 in period and the creation of July to £1,155 in September 4,500 seasonal jobs. – is being driven by the post- Brexit decline in the value of • Attractions bringing visitors to sterling and recent events in London will include Cinderella, other major European cities, the first at the such as Paris and Brussels. London Palladium for 30 American, Chinese and Middle years, and a new version of Eastern visitors are JB Priestley’s classic play most active. ‘An Inspector Calls’.

• London’s Night Tube services • Spending by domestic shoppers is expected to will begin on the Northern be steady due to continued Line on 18 November with the caution over Brexit and its Piccadilly Line following later impact on the economy in the Autumn. The first this year and next. weekend of the service, which opened on the Victoria and • Footfall in the West End is Central lines on 19 August, forecast to slip by 3.1%, a led to a 14% uplift in footfall widening from last year’s drop on the Saturday night in of 2.7%. Visitor numbers are Oxford Street. facing long-term erosion from the growth of online shopping. • Early weather forecasts reveal that above-average • However, average Christmas temperatures are more spending is expected to be up likely than below average by 65% from the rest of the temperatures over the year as the West End adjusts festive period. to the change in shopping habits. Retailers have ramped up personalised services,

03 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 04 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

West End set for festive sales lift

It has been a The figures compare favourably consumer confidence in February with Christmas 2015. According and March this year, followed by tumultuous year for to industry data, British retail drops ranging between 3% and spending over the Christmas 1% from April to June. The survey the UK economy. period in 2015 recorded its for July revealed a huge 12% per Caution ahead of weakest quarterly growth of any cent dip in consumer confidence in the preceding year, as stores – the sharpest month-by-month the EU referendum competed to offer discounts. The drop for over 26 years – as Brits vote on 23 June British Retail Consortium said fretted over their personal finance retail spending rose by just 0.9% situations and the country’s and nervousness in the three months to December economic future. compared with a year earlier. immediately The West End was hit with both following the Brexit Retailers’ experiences varied sales and footfall slipping in the during the festive season last six months to June. However, an decision dented year, with many reporting flat improvement in consumer spirit in consumer and trading, due to weak consumer August left West End sales 1.5% confidence and international higher and footfall 2.6% higher. business confidence. events such as those in Paris affecting retail sales across In September, GfK revealed that the country. its index had bounced back to However, retailers along London’s June’s pre-Brexit level – albeit still busiest shopping streets are In the West End there was a drop in negative territory. Joe Staton, looking forward to a merrier in annual sales in the six weeks Head of Market Dynamics at GfK, Christmas buoyed by a surge to 25 December, despite footfall says: “British consumers appear in international spend. A host improving from a 3.2% dip in to have shrugged off Brexit fears of exciting in-store seasonal 2014 to a 2.7% fall last year. Black about the economy, as wages activities and improved 24-hour Friday was the second busiest continue to grow faster than public transport services will also shopping day of the year with prices and rising employment attract visitors to the heart of 646,196 recorded visitors, beaten boosts income. The fears about the West End. only by Saturday 5 November, Brexit seem to be overdone.” when 652,025 visitors descended Bond Street, Oxford Street and on the West End. Research from Barclaycard Regent Street, together with 22 said that 48% of people polled surrounding streets, boast more Department stores performed between 23 and 28 September than 600 stores between them. well, with House of Fraser felt upbeat about the UK economy Till receipts are forecast to rise enjoying a 5.3% year-on-year rise – the highest level since 2014 – by 1.6% to £2.34billion during in sales at both its bricks & mortar and Deloitte said UK consumer the six weeks running up to shops and online. John Lewis confidence hit a 5-year high in Christmas, with average takings department store sales rose 5.1%. September. of £51.1million per day or an Nevertheless, general UK expected £5.1million spend per consumer confidence remained Interest rates, which the Bank of hour during the peak period. shaky in the first few months of England took to a new record low 2016, with analysts and retailers of 0.25% in early August to boost The estimation is based on blaming caution ahead of the ailing economic spirits, were seen footfall, consumer survey and June EU referendum as a brake on as vital in encouraging people to retailer trading data, with footfall consumer spending. spend rather than save. at this time of year traditionally 30% higher and spend per person GfK’s long-running monthly 65% higher. consumer confidence index, which is carried out on behalf of the European Commission, noted flat 05 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

One of the main economic fall- the rest of the UK. The Brexit In the West End, jewellery and outs from Brexit, the fall in the vote may be weighing on a region luxury goods are performing value of sterling against major in which 60% voted to remain well with August sales up nearly currencies such as the dollar and and where reliance on financial 20% on 2015. Adult fashion and euro, is also boosting more visits services, migration and capital homeware is also strong but from the US, China and the Middle flows are especially strong.” shoes and multi-fashion have East to West End retailers. been down. The Confederation of British The pound’s 8% fall against Industry added to the uncertainty Staton of GfK says: “The the dollar on 24 June was its when it declared that UK retail consumer mood is likely to be biggest one-day fall since the sales fell in September. Its retail more volatile as we approach era of free-floating exchange sales balance dropped to -8 from Christmas. We will witness rates was introduced in the early a six month high of +9 in August. consumers being swayed by the 1970s. That loss has extended There are fears that rising import headlines around the triggering to as much as 18% since, and the costs, as a result of the weak of Article 50, the hard Brexit vs ensuing international headlines pound, may soon force inflation soft Brexit debate and the role prompted an 18% increase in and shop prices higher, squeezing of Parliament in all this. Markets international arrivals to the UK, consumers disposable income. will react and that will create according to the UK Tourism In addition, there is the risk of volatility and consumers worry Alliance. As of writing the further economic turbulence when that happens. But the pound has dropped to a three- when Article 50, the signal to weakness of sterling has its silver decade low, and is unlikely to leave the EU, is triggered lining, and I’m sure Christmas will recover, keeping international next spring. see us welcoming many more sales buoyant throughout this tourists. That will benefit the Christmas season. Away from Brexit, retailers are retail world, especially our top also dealing with the continued retailers in Bond Street, Oxford The weak pound also means a shift of consumer spend, from Street and Regent Street who rise in ‘staycation’ trips as Brits bricks & mortar stores to online, are accustomed to well-heeled shun more expensive holidays as well as weakness in demand shoppers from around the world. abroad. According to Visit for products such as clothes. London is certain to benefit and England, about 5.1million Britons Fashion chain Primark has anybody working in retail in the organised a staycation over the blamed the vagaries of the British capital will be feeling more August bank holiday weekend, up weather for an expected 2% dip festive than usual and for from 4.7million last year. London in annual like-for-like sales. Rival sound business reasons.” hotels are expecting a domestic Next said a 3.3% drop in second- tourist boost this Christmas. quarter retail sales was partly Bob Dawson, Head of Asset down to consumers preferring Management Regent Street, However, concerns over UK to spend their money on cars or at the Crown Estate, adds: shoppers personal finances going out than fashion. “Regent Street has a mix of price- and the strength of the points. Luxury stores have done economy remain. Indeed, Kantar Worldpanel, the well post-Brexit such as Burberry data group, says fashion sales with double-digit sales growth. That same Deloitte survey noting have fallen for the past four The other end, such as H&M, are booming UK consumer confidence months, with nearly £700million also doing better than last year also revealed that consumer lost from the value of the market but not on the same scale as sentiment in London dropped 3% from this time last year. luxury stores.” in September 9% lower than the same time last year. Ian Stewart, Chief Economist at Deloitte, explains: “In an inversion of the usual relationship, London’s consumers are less upbeat than 06 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

West End set for festive sales lift

Dawson says the West End Outside entertainment in continues to be an attractive the area will also be key in setting for British and raising its profile and driving international retailers. Openings retail demand. this year have included Polo Ralph Lauren’s European flagship store, As is traditional, the Bond Michael Kors 16,000 sq ft flagship Street, Oxford Street and store on Regent Street, Dyson’s Regent Street Christmas lights first UK store on Oxford Street and illuminations will be switched and Christian Dior’s boutique on in November by celebrity on New Bond Street. Tech giant guests. Oxford Street’s family Apple also re-opened its Regent festival this year will be traffic Street store including Fiscus Ali free along the entire 1.5 miles trees in a spangly new design. between 12 noon and 7pm.

“Apple’s return is great for us. It Hamleys Christmas Toy brings more people back to the Parade will make its second street,” says Dawson. appearance on the London scene and will enliven Regent Such innovations show that West Street in mid-November. End retailers are dialling up the ideas to fight back in the face of Both revellers and shoppers will digital migration and economic look nervously up at the skies as uncertainty. In-store experiences winter approaches. According to and the use of more bespoke and the Met Office, last December personalised products are aiming was warm with above average to make shops a more vibrant temperatures and below average destination of choice. rainfall. A cold but dry, snow-free Christmas is most favourable for Jonathan De Mello, Head of Retail stores, with low temperatures Consultancy at Harper Dennis encouraging shoppers to buy Hobbs, says: “Technology has winter clothing, ideally without become more important in stores too many downpours disrupting - such as iPads for customers so transport and travel. they can browse the catalogue if the product they want is not Those feeling bold can put a bet on sale. Specially trained staff on a White Christmas in London, can help them choose online and but with odds of 6/1 at William assure them that it will be in- Hill it may be money better store within 24 hours. Retailers spent in the stores. are really embracing this.” 07 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 08 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

The West End retailers’ perspective

Retail bosses in matched this Christmas then it in our ground floor. There is more will be a “bumper” period. She energy in the store and more the West End are says: “We’ve seen a lot more theatre in the window displays. visitors from the EU and non- Some people are noticing our overwhelmingly EU and we’ve every reason to store for the first time.” in a bullish mood believe that those numbers will continue to grow. Customers, as Iconic toy shop Hamleys is hoping as they head into has happened in recent years, the force will be with them when Christmas 2016. are leaving their Christmas it creates a dedicated Star Wars shopping later. They used to area on its basement floor to do it throughout October and cater for continued demand from They acknowledge the dramatic November but now they wait children in the movie franchise. effect of Brexit on consumer until December. They are savvy, Mark Drummond, Head of behaviour but hopes are high that, they expect to find the best Marketing and Web says it will boosted by surging international promotions and deals then. be part of a strong Christmas. demand, sales will soar over the Shoppers coming to Oxford Street “We are very excited. We’ve seen crucial festive period. aren’t typically value hunters but a 27% increase in footfall in the they are willing to wait until the last three weeks. It is being led Department store Debenhams says last few weeks if they can find by American, Australian, South it is as “optimistic” as usual this an offer they like.” African and Middle Eastern Christmas. Susan Reid, Regional tourists but we are confident Sales Director, says: “We feel At Fenwick of Bond Street, Buying that given the general increase very positive about trading this and Merchandising Director in domestic spend at Christmas Christmas. We’ve got a wonderfully Adam Kelly, is eyeing up a 40- we will get a double-whammy atmospheric in-store experience, 45% increase in sales at its third this year.” great exclusive brands and a floor Christmas shop this year. strong food offering. Based on the “We’ve increased our Christmas falling on a thousands queuing up for one of products by around a quarter. The Saturday is also set to give an our recent beauty range launches, timing of Christmas means two extra boost. “Schools will be I would say that consumers are bank holidays in the following breaking up a little bit later so it feeling confident and are ready to week for people to shop with their will be a very busy day. Two bank spend on treats.” Christmas money. We are really holidays the week after Christmas looking forward to the period,” Day also means more chance for Over at John Lewis’s Oxford he says. children to spend their Christmas Street store Karen Lord, Head of money,” he adds. “The period after Branch is also ebullient. She says: Fenwick has seen strong Christmas is a significant trading “There are mixed messages over trading in the second-half of period for us.” consumer confidence but we’ve the year driven not just by more seen a strong last few weeks in international tourists, particularly Lush’s Global Property Director comparison with the same time Chinese, but also domestic spend. Paul Wheatley provides further last year. As a result, we feel “Trading is up on the same time insight into the mood of London’s really optimistic ahead of the last year. There was a little bit of Christmas shoppers. “We’ve seen festive period. We’ve invested hesitancy around the referendum a slight fall in footfall in Oxford heavily in our product assortment and there may be more to discuss Street. Domestic shoppers are from fashion, to virtual reality about Brexit when Article 50 cautious, more so in London than gaming and personalised Santa is triggered next March, but in the rest of the UK. It’s Brexit sacks. Customers are looking for domestic sales this year have and economy related, maybe inspiration and differentiation.” been very strong. A lot more because London voted remain and people are holidaying in the UK they are more concerned about Eleanor Dalley, General Manager rather than going abroad and the impact. However, I believe at House of Fraser on Oxford are spending their money here,” that even when people are having Street, believes if its summer he says. “We have also added new a tough year that when Christmas sales performance is, as expected, shoppers thanks to investment comes they forget their worries and want to spend.” 09 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Despite domestic fears, Wheatley and as people hope to only get Barratt West, Managing Director says average basket sales and engaged once they look to spend at Jeweller Tiffany & Co, says spend are actually up on this on rings when they do.” he is optimistic for a successful time last year. “There has been Christmas helped by a big influx of an increase in tourists. We’ve got Fellow luxury group Watches tourists and increasingly confident people from Germany coming of Switzerland believes it is on domestic shoppers. “This has over specially to visit out store. I course for its best ever Christmas, been a year of two halves. The don’t see any reason that it will buoyed by international visitor drop in confidence before the peter away and expect festive spend. “The continuing drop in Brexit vote was palpable, but trading to be up on last year.” sterling is giving a great boost to since then we have seen a strong overseas shoppers to spend a performance from locals,” he says. At the top end of the market, little bit more than usual. We’ve “People are feeling emboldened, Boodles has doubled its selling had a very good summer and with our bridal customers looking space on Bond Street by taking feel that this could be the best for quality diamonds to celebrate over an adjacent store. Michael Christmas we’ve ever had unless their marriage. There is such a Wainwright, Managing Director the pound recovers. Our recent positive energy in London with of the jeweller, says, that despite new openings, such as the Regent busy theatres and restaurants. Brexit worries, he is anticipating Street showroom, have increased The capital is buzzing.” double-digit sales growth our exposure both abroad and in this Christmas. “Our dramatic the UK,” says Damian Otwinowski, Linton Wadsworth, Director of expansion a year ago means Retail Director. “We are not an Revenue at Edwardian Hotels we have more space and more everyday option London, is more confident about presence. We have turned heads for people’s loved ones, but we domestic demand. “We’ve seen and our trading is up. We also expect a minimum double-digit an uplift as Brits become more have a more established in- sales increase on last year.” reluctant to travel abroad because store team which is crucial in our of the exchange rate. It has business. We are seeing overseas Longchamp, the specialist in become more expensive for them, spend up and domestic shoppers handbags and leather goods, so many are planning to stay from all over the UK continuing to also notes a boom in post-Brexit locally this Christmas. The fact spend, so I am pretty confident international spend, particularly that Christmas Day is on a Sunday we will meet our higher Christmas from the US and Asia. Paul also helps as we get a normal sales targets this year.” Lorraine, UK General Manager, week of trading heading up to it. says: “I’m very confident. We People will wait until the Friday However, Brexit worries remain. are in a strong position this year this year before they head out of “The great unknown is how particularly the last 16 weeks London to visit friends or family,” people are going to feel about which have been exceptional. he says. “With international visitor the dreaded Brexit. After the vote It’s been tourist driven and the numbers also up it means we are I thought consumer confidence indications are that this will already seeing more reservations held up surprisingly well, but since continue over the Christmas for the 6-week period this year. the recent news around Article period. I’ve got no reason to Between the 19th and 27th 50 the flames have reignited believe it won’t.” December we are seeing 25% somewhat. People are thinking more bookings than last year. about what is around the corner,” He says UK shopper spend It’s a significant uplift.” he states. “But, having said that, is more of a challenge. “It I’ve been in business for over has been steady, but not the 30 years and there is always same sales spikes we’ve seen something to worry about. You from international customers. tend to ride these things out, Nothing good ever comes out especially in our very resilient of a referendum, but it has been luxury jewellery business where masked slightly by the exchange a lot of our business comes from rate and the tourist spend.” high net worth individuals. Bridal is also a big part of our business 10 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Retailers festive strategies

All High Street Lush’s Global Property Director “This Christmas for the first time Paul Wheatley, says its Oxford we have decided to target and retailers face Street branch plays hosts to communicate with those clients speakers as well as bands who perhaps first visited us three the challenge of to create a top-class retail years ago but have not returned. changing shopper atmosphere. “It is not just about We are testing this use of big the shopping experience anymore. data,” he says. habits and the It’s about delivering more, such as West End is no our underground spa.” Another way of encouraging an increase in West End footfall is exception. Susan Reid, Regional Sales creating more space for retail Director at Debenhams, agrees shoppers. Mayor Sadiq Khan is about the need for more retail aiming to reduce the amount of Footfall in the area continues pizazz, but is also looking at traffic on Oxford Street by 2020, to drop as consumer shopping utilising technology to attract primarily to improve air quality trends change towards a more more customers. “We are being in the capital. New West End omnichannel approach, with much more assertive this year in Company has campaigned for shoppers hitting the high streets reaching out on social media to reduced traffic in the West End for less often but spending more on the Chinese market,” she explains. many years and believes that any these occasions. “We are letting our customers form of vehicle free zones must there know about our new lead to a genuine traffic reduction, The split between “bricks & clicks” brands, promotions and in-store rather than large scale re-routing is far from an absolute one, with experiences.” down smaller residential or evidence suggesting that many commercial side streets. shoppers browse online and Watches of Switzerland also then visit stores to make thinks it is time to harness big Bob Dawson of The Crown their purchases. data analytics to improve footfall. Estate says it has carried out “We usually get lower footfall at improvement work such as The role of the high street and the Christmas than in Summer. It is pavement widening and planting attractiveness of the shopping more about quality than quantity. to improve shopper experience. experience is still strong amongst Because it is an emotional and “We are looking at improving our consumers. This year West End often long thought-out buying food and beverage offering which retailers are working hard to process we have to keep engaged includes the opening of Japanese harness creativity and technology with our clients. We have a restaurant Sakagura in Heddon to tempt more customers into dedicated concierge service in Street next month. We’ve also their festive stores. Regent Street to look after our been encouraging stores to put customers from initial interest cafés inside such as Burberry and Karen Lord, Head of Branch at to purchase. They value our Polo Ralph Lauren. This should John Lewis Oxford Street, says: personal service and experience,” improve dwell time within the “Personalisation of products will says Damian Otwinowski, Retail stores.” be big this year from Santa sacks Director. “It is also about being to children’s nightwear. It is a the first to launch new products Grosvenor believes the use response to the online challenge. or holding events, from whisky of pop-up stores can bring Shops have a new role as a source tasting to dinners with our more vibrancy to the West End of inspiration, entertainment and own catering teams. It is over Christmas. “We look for differentiation for customers. It is about differentiation.” interesting and engaging shops. It less of a transaction and more of gives us the chance to have a bit an experience, a day out.” The group is also looking to of fun and can bring in a different do more with client data and demographic to the area,” explains retail insight. Joanna Lea, Retail Director. 11 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 12 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Christmas in the West End Key dates

Christmas may feel like it comes earlier every year but in the West End the excitement generally kicks off at the beginning of November with a series of illuminations brightening up the skies and the spirits.

For traders the season is book-ended this year by the now traditional phenomenon of Black Friday and Christmas Eve falling on a Saturday for the first time in 5 years.

This means a hectic final shopping trip before the Big Day, with ‘Super Saturday’ potentially emerging as the most lucrative single day of the whole festive season.

The key dates for the West End this year are: 13 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Regent Street Oxford Street Bond Street Motor Show Christmas Lights switch on Illuminations Saturday 5 November Sunday 6 November Thursday 10 November

Regent Street is traffic-free For the first time in Oxford London’s premier street for luxury between Piccadilly Circus and Street’s history, it is partnering brands gets in the Christmas Oxford Street as hundreds of with a charity – the NSPCC – swing between 6pm and 8pm. vehicles go on display. Music on its famous Christmas Last year retailers joined in the and dance and stunt bike lights display. fun by hosting their own in-store displays will wow petrolheads customer events. and shoppers alike. The partnership will see thousands of ‘Little Stars’ lights, dedicated to a loved one through a £5 donation, twinkle and sparkle among 1,778 gold and silver baubles and 750,000 LED bulbs.

The entire length of the street will be closed to traffic all day, between 12 noon and 7pm, to host a Kids Christmas VIP Day with music from Capital Radio and appearances from kids favourites such as Transformers. This is the first festive traffic free event on Oxford Street for four years.

Global celebrities who have previously switched on the Christmas Lights include Kylie Minogue and Robbie Williams. 14 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Christmas in the West End Key dates

Regent Street Night Tube Opening Regent Street Illuminations Northern Line Hamleys Christmas Toy Parade Thursday 17 November Friday 18 November Sunday 20 November

The world famous street will 24 hours a day travel on Fridays Three quarters of a million be closed from early evening and Saturdays already operates people are being tipped to allowing thousands of eager on the Central and Victoria lines attend Hamleys second annual shoppers to experience another but is being expanded to the toy parade. Characters such as dazzling extravaganza. This year’s Charing Cross branch of the Fireman Sam and Peppa Pig will lights pay homage to the earliest Northern Line. The Night Tube has take part in the traffic-free, all day Central London Christmas display already been hailed by New West extravaganza which is billed as in 1954 and stretch across End Company for contributing to the world’s largest toy parade. Piccadilly into St James’s. The a “vibrant 24-hour economy”. The evening boasts a live street party Piccadilly Line will join the Night with celebrity guests which in Tube party later this Autumn. recent years have included Take That and The Jersey Boys. 15 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

West End West End West End Black Friday Black Eye Friday Pre-Christmas Weekend Friday 25 November Friday 16/23 December 17/18 December

The US retail phenomenon which The last Friday before Christmas The last full shopping weekend tempts Thanksgiving revellers is the most popular day for office before Christmas is expected with cut price goods has made parties. It is known as ‘Black to be a lucrative couple of days quite an impression in the UK in Eye’ because it is synonymous for retailers as shoppers flock recent years. Its original focus with Brits enjoying just a little to the stores to buy presents. It may have been on electrical too much festive exuberance. may be the last chance for some goods but it now extends to a Nevertheless, it is a bumper night to hit the West End before they range of other sectors such as for taxis, nightclubs, buses and leave London to visit relatives fashion and homewares. Expect tubes. Sales of beauty products, in the shires. Most shops will be retailers to launch a series of dresses and snazzy Christmas trading at full price, rather than promotions in the West End. jumpers are also likely to be running sales. According to New in high demand as colleagues West End Company, retailers can prepare to hit the town. expect approximately 1.2million shoppers and a total spend of £124million. 16 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Christmas in the West End Key dates

Online shopping West End West End Online order deadlines Christmas Eve Boxing Day Week Beginning 19 December Saturday 24 December Monday 26 December

This is when retailers set The first ‘Super Saturday’ for five Traditionally the start of sales online ordering cut-off dates years is tipped to be a bumper season in West End stores. for standard and next day day for West End retailers. It is Shoppers stuffed full of turkey, deliveries. Consumers have to the last chance for consumers and disappointment meet these deadlines if they to buy their loved ones a present at their spouses last minute gifts want their last-minute gifts to for Christmas Day – most likely look for some retail therapy. arrive at their door before the blokes whizzing desperately big day. With the online option around town to find the perfect gone it means a big footfall surge gift. Jonathan De Mello, Head on the high street as shoppers of Retail Consultancy at Harper try to complete their Christmas Dennis Hobbs, said: “A Saturday shopping list in time. “That’s Christmas Eve is massive for when shops with physical as well retailers. Being able to shop fully as digital channels do well as that day, especially with male shoppers can click-and-collect panic buys, is key. It could be orders in store,” says Jonathan one of the biggest days we’ve De Mello, Head of Retail seen in a long time.” New West Consultancy at Harper Dennis End Company says over the two Hobbs. “Amazon are trying to days of 24 and 26 December counter that with their use of approximately £161million will be lockers, but shoppers are proving spent, with 1.3million shoppers. reluctant to use them.” 17 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

West End West End Bank Holiday New Year’s Eve Tuesday 27 December Saturday 31 December

A bank holiday in lieu of Christmas Party time in the West End and Day which falls on a Sunday this the capital as 250,000 revellers year means an extra day of work- let down their hair and count free shopping for consumers. down the final seconds of 2016. Jonathan De Mello of Harper The main fireworks display takes Dennis Hobbs says it could mean place between 7.30pm and double delight for retailers: 12.15am at the London Eye. “I think the extra bank holiday is good news for retailers. Boxing Day is less important than it was given that sales now start, at least online, on Christmas Day itself. The extra day off work can only be a good thing as people will shop for bargains on those days.” Susan Reid, Regional Sales Director at Debenhams adds: “I view this as being hugely positive for retail. There will always be that Boxing Day sale mentality of get there to get the best bargain. But I see 27 December as being much stronger than last year as customers will have the extra day off work.” 18 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Christmas economy

As well as playing Its Gross Value Added (GVA), the Last year retailers in the West measure of its contribution to the End and Knightsbridge launched a significant role economy, is worth £5.4billion over a campaign for a relaxation in in ensuring that the Christmas period. Sunday trading hours. shoppers and It also provides a major The rejection of the proposal seasonal boost to the capital’s was a setback to the West End’s revellers are full of employment market. economy. Just two extra trading Christmas cheer, hours every Sunday would have Shops in the West End employ created an extra £260million a the New West End 65,000 people throughout the year and the equivalent of 2,000 year. Once offices, restaurants new, full time jobs in the West company district and other facilities are taken into End and Knightsbridge. Over also makes a huge account, the geographical area Christmas alone, the uplift would employs 150,000 people which have amounted to an additional contribution to the is more than the population of 191 positions. economy over the Oxford and equates to 2% of London’s total workforce. Another economic blow to the festive period. West End is set to come from In the run-up to Christmas, new business rate changes. Set these stores take on an to come into force in 2017 the additional 4,500 staff to assist changes will lead to a rise of 80% customers. Many of these jobs for West End retailers. This means go to young Londoners and to an additional £125million a year, working parents, providing a lift reducing profits by a huge 25%. to households at a time of year when finances can be stretched. Paul Lorraine, UK General Manager at Longchamp, says: At Selfridges alone, staff numbers “There has to be a better rise from 3,800 people to 5,300 understanding within Government from November onwards. Fellow about what retail means. department store Debenhams Continuously penalising us takes on 400 extra seasonal and putting more costs on our workers on Oxford Street with business is bordering on being John Lewis Oxford Street adding unacceptable. Business rates 200 staff for the peak Christmas rises and not getting the extra trading period. Iconic toy store Sunday trading hours is like a Hamleys even takes on 30 Elves slap in the face. You now have after an ‘Elf Factor’ hunt for to factor in the rate rises when people with “energetic, happy considering opening new stores. personalities and a love of Santa”. It is just another cost business does not need.” In addition to hiring extra staff, most retailers offer their existing employees the opportunity to work a significant number of extra hours over the festive period, giving them an income boost over Christmas. 19 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 20 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Black Friday

Black Friday is the Last November, according to Susan Reid, Regional Sales New West End Company, an Director at Debenhams, says: US Thanksgiving estimated 11 million bargain “Black Friday is a day we hunters hit high streets and malls absolutely plan for. We see a Holiday retail in the UK, splashing out £2billion significant increase in footfall, four phenomenon which on massively discounted goods – times as much as a usual day. We nearly doubling 2014’s figure have a great reputation of being has now become a of £1.2billion. first to market when it comes to permanent fixture Black Friday deals.” In the West End, shopper on the British retail numbers rose by 10% on 2014 to Eleanor Dalley, General Manager 646,196, with £100million being at House of Fraser’s Oxford Street calendar. Shops spent on goods. It was the second store, agrees that Black Friday offer deep discounts busiest shopping day of the year. is a big event for the West End but it will do a “shorter burst” of and one-off Despite these numbers, attitudes offers this year. “In 2015 we did bargains to kick-off among the West End’s retailers it for almost a whole week but vary when asked about the this year we will focus it between the festive shopping importance of Black Friday. Friday and Sunday. You don’t need a week long promotion - Black spirit. Luxury retailers don’t tend to get Friday is really about one day involved, preferring to maintain - so why dilute it? Just putting price, but department stores are a promotion on for one day is more keen. quite operationally challenging so we felt three days was the best Karen Lord, Head of Branch at option and we are quite clear that John Lewis Oxford Street, says offers will finish on Sunday night it represents the first of three this year.” ‘peaks’ over the Christmas period. “We are very much a part of Black Friday. It’s very important to us and there will be great deals to be had and wonderful service provided here on the day.” 21 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 22 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Tourists and international shoppers

Chinese visitors A weakening global economy, Average spend per person in low oil prices, events in major the UK by international shoppers will head a European capital cities and reached £806 in September, caution ahead of the June up from £721 in August and resurgent wave referendum saw a dip in West significantly higher than the of international End sales to major spenders such £605 in July. as the Chinese at the tail-end of shoppers on 2015 and start of 2016. Latest figures from the Office West End streets of National Statistics revealed Indeed, according to tax-free that year-on-year visits to the this Christmas. shopping company Global Blue, UK increased by 2% in July to a UK sales from international new monthly record of 3.8million Consumers from shoppers dropped 9% in June people. Spend increased by 4% around the globe ahead of the big vote. to £2.53billion. North American numbers rose 5% with rest of the will be encouraged However, a “currency halo” world trips up by 6%. to splash out since the referendum has seen spending rebound with the on goods by the Chinese, Middle Eastern visitors, the Americans, Australians and strengthening of Indians coming to the fore. local currencies In the West End, Chinese sales such as the yen and climbed 14% year-on-year the dollar against between January and September, International average spend with the UAE up 31%, US up 28% July to September 2016 Brexit-battered and India up 17%. WEST END OVERALL UK & LONDON sterling.

£918 JULY £605

Top nationalities for tax free spending in the UK September 2016

CHINA 25% £813 36%

SAUDI ARABIA 12% £885 58%

£1,038 AUGUST £721 QATAR 11% £1,918 16%

KUWAIT 10% £741 28%

UAE 8% £1569 22%

US 4% £770 46%

HONG KONG 3% £784 63%

THAILAND 2% £840 44% £1,155 SEPTEMBER £806

MALAYSIA 2% £661 67%

% OF TOTAL AVERAGE SPEND YOY INCREASE Source: Global Blue Source: Global Blue 23 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 24 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Tourists and international shoppers

The sudden increase in Michael Wainwright, Managing Retail is one of the key reasons purchasing power following the Director of Boodles, said: “Unlike they visit so it is looking positive plunge in sterling has encouraged our peers in the West End we and a stark improvement from tourists to visit and spend in mainly sell to Brits, but the weak this time last year.” London stores. Luxury sales, pound has been in our favour which were up 35% year-on- due to the boost it has given to Urbaniak of Global Blue said year in September in the West international shoppers. Our other one factor which could hamper End, were led by Chinese, Saudi, stores in London and elsewhere the expected growth in tourist US, Taiwanese, Malaysian and tend to do better with overseas shopper numbers would be if Japanese visitors. The value of visitors because they sell Patek luxury West End retailers raise the rouble, a struggling domestic Philippe watches which are an their prices to cope with higher economy battered by low oil international commodity. But here imports and the need to stay prices and international sanctions in Bond Street we’ve definitely competitive with rivals pricing in has left Russian sales in the seen more American visitors since euros or dollars. “Will they make doldrums- down 10% year-on- Brexit. Our overseas spend here the shift in their price models? It year between January in the West End is quite will be interesting to follow their and September. significantly up.” moves before Christmas,” she said. Kimberly Urbaniak, Marketing That has been partly helped by Manager at Global Blue, the its new advertising campaign at Some London luxury retailers tax-free shopping company, Heathrow’s Terminal 5 – a digital have already increased prices says: “There was caution motion showcase showing off its by as much as double-digit but pre-referendum but as the wares to travellers just off the most brands have hedged until pound has weakened, average plane. “It’s the first time we’ve December. spend amongst international done it. The screens are amazing shoppers has increased almost and everyone passes them as Jonathan De Mello, Head of Retail overnight. Anything can happen they come in,” he said. “We’re also Consultancy Harper Dennis Hobbs before Christmas - from the US advertising in Emirates and Etihad believes most firms will hold fire election’s impact on the dollar, airlines magazines.” ahead of Christmas. oil prices and the reaction of the pound to further news about On the visitor front Linton “Bond Street and luxury retailers Brexit policy - but given the last Wadsworth, Director of Revenue are driven by international spend two months’ performance we at Edwardian Hotels London, and they are going to see one are set for a fairly strong said: “We saw a strong uplift in of their biggest ever Christmas festive season.” room reservations for over the periods. International shoppers Christmas period from China, the may even be binge-buying Retailers are also bullish about US and the Middle East after the because there is a perception international spend. Karen Lord, referendum. The fall in sterling that this depreciation of sterling Head of Branch at John Lewis has helped, as has - especially is not going to last. We saw this Oxford Street, said: “We’ve among Middle Eastern travellers recently during Golden Week with seen buoyant international - the feeling that London is a Chinese shoppers stocking up on trade in the last few weeks safer destination than other cities luxury bags which were no longer and months. There has been a in Europe. We are tailored to meet 50% cheaper than buying back strong mix of Chinese and Middle the needs of the Middle Eastern home but 75%,” he said. “We see Eastern shoppers.” traveller, from their cultural habits retailers holding firm on prices of dining and waking up later until at least after Christmas and than other nationalities to having indeed more and earlier sales porter services to bring their retail to appeal to the more cautious purchases to their rooms. mass-market spender.” 25 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Bob Dawson of The Crown Estate, adds: “The hedging by luxury retailers will soon end and life will become more challenging. There will probably be some price rises coming through in the New Year.”

Businesses in the West End have also been boosted by changes to visas struck last year with China which reduced the price of a two- year visa to visit the UK from £324 to £85.

According to New West End Company making 10-year visitor visas the standard would significantly boost the UK and West End’s share of the high- value retail tourism Chinese tourists bring. Indeed, such visas between the US and China boosted Chinese visitor numbers by nearly 70% in just two months. Paul Lorraine, UK General Manager at Longchamp, says: “We’ve been shouting for Visa changes for a long, long time. If we can enhance the Visa offering that would be great for them and retailers.”

The timing is ripe given the UK’s desire to seek new trade deals after leaving the EU and the announcement from the Department for Transport in early October that the number of flights between the UK and China are set to soar. Under the new deal passenger flights can now increase from the current maximum of 40 per week for each nation to up to 100. 26 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Entertainment

Christmas is Well-known stars such as Julian The second annual Hamleys Clary, Amanda Holden and Paul Christmas Toy Parade will also synonymous with O’Grady take to the boards for the draw families and tourists to production of Cinderella. Regent Street on 20 November. family gatherings Around 750,000 people are set and outings so Staying with family entertainment to take part in the celebrations of it is fitting that in a year which what is the world’s largest what better than marked the 100th anniversary of toy parade. celebrating the first his birth that one of author Roald Dahl’s most famous children’s Kids will get the chance to meet pantomime in the books – Charlie and the Chocolate dozens of their favourite toy Factory - is set to wow West End characters with names expected capital’s London theatres one final time. to take to the streets including Palladium for Barbie, Bing and Flop, Fireman Directed by Oscar winner Sam Sam, Peppa Pig, Mr & Mrs Potato 30 years? Mendes the show, which first Head, the Ghostbusters and opened in Drury Lane in 2013, Bob the Builder. tells the story of eccentric chocolate factory owner Willy West End Kids, a collection of Wonka and the perils of greed and young singers and performers excess. It runs until early 2017 so will help wow the crowd with tickets will be especially golden music and dance. this Christmas.

Other expected hits include well-known favourites such as ‘An Inspector Calls’ and ‘Dirty Dancing’.

Julian Bird, Chief Executive of the Society of London Theatre, says: “We are hoping for a good Christmas in the West End. Tourist numbers seem healthy and the trends seems encouraging. Christmas is one of the most important periods of the year and it also helps retail. The evidence is clear that people coming into the West End to watch a production but they also shop, drink and eat. It is hugely significant for the West End.” 27 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 28 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Travel and transport

Christmas brings TfL has worked hard over recent The Northern Line – Charing years in improving station lay- Cross Branch – follows on 18 a huge influx of out and technology to improve November and the Piccadilly Line travellers experience, particularly later this year. people onto the during busy periods such as streets of London summer and Christmas. TfL says there were 50,000 customer journeys on the first and the West End As part of the technological night of the service in August. It as they get into changes, and in recognition of the is hoped it will play a vital role huge numbers of tourist visiting in opening up London’s night- the festive spirit the capital each year, it has time economy, boosting it by installed new ticket machines on £360million. by shopping, the network offering guidance in dining or watching 17 languages, including Mandarin. New West End Company is also It hopes that the introduction of preparing for an uplift from the entertainment. payment by contactless credit opening of Crossrail’s Elizabeth or debit card will also make Line through Central London in navigation of the network simpler. 2018. It is estimated to increase As such it poses a tremendous GDV in the West End by at least challenge for the capital’s transport “During the busy festive period £2.5billion, with 2.5million sq ft in chiefs who are keen to spread our focus is to keep London new and refurbished commercial passengers evenly across the moving and working. All our space already underway. This local stations. stations are staffed to help ensure investment is set to boost retail customers choose the right sales in the area to £11.25billion On an average day in London there tickets, plan their journeys and annually by 2020. New West are more than 31million journeys, get to their destinations quickly End Company is working with according to Transport for London, and easily,” says David McNeill, the 600 retailers it represents to across modes such as tube, rail TfL’s Director of Public Affairs and ensure they are ready – Selfridges and bus. Christmas adds extra Stakeholder Engagement. alone is investing £300million in numbers with passenger figures its store in preparation for the up by between 20% and 40% TfL also puts on extra staff additional footfall. higher than usual. and travel ambassadors on all of its busiest stations at the McNeill says: “The Elizabeth line West End stations are among the busiest periods. will significantly increase the busiest on the network. capital’s rail capacity, boosting the In addition, New West End economy by billions of pounds Typical weekday tube station Company’s team of Ambassadors and supporting thousands of new entries + exits: welcome over half a million jobs and homes. It’s a massive shoppers every year, speaking opportunity for the West End. We • Oxford Circus 278,149 25 languages, and providing real are also working with the West time information and assistance End Partnership to transform • Green Park 124,590 to help shoppers navigate around the West End and to deliver real • Piccadilly Circus 117,857 the West End. change to ensure the area’s continued success. Oxford Street • Bond Street 112,729 2016 has also seen the should be a place for people, Source: Transport for London introduction of Night Tube not traffic. We want to improve services offering 24-hour travel the environment and support on Fridays and Saturdays on the business growth.” Central, Victoria and Jubilee lines. 29 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016 30 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Products expected to sell well

Eve Trolls Hug Fitbit Alta Hamleys Magic Mattresses Time Poppy Showcase 4 1 2 3

Dyson Kidizoom Code-A-Pillar Hairdryer Marble, brass and Smart Watch 9 steel lighting 10 11 12 31 NEW WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Shoot For The Stars Nerf Mega Modern Rarity LEGO Star Bath Bomb Mastodon Womenswear Wars Krennic’s 5 6 7 8 Imperial Shuttle

Interactive Marc Jacobs Personalised Furby Beauty gifts including Oculus Rift Virtual 13 Santa gift sacks Reality Headset 14 15 16 32 THE WEST END COMPANY CHRISTMAS TRACKER 2016

Acknowledgements

New West End Boodles The Crown Estate Company thanks Debenhams Fenwick all the contributors Global Blue who provided Grosvenor Hamleys insights towards Harper Dennis Hobbs the compilation of House of Fraser John Lewis Partnership this report. Longchamp Lush Premier Tax Free Radisson Blu Edwardian Hotels Selfridges Society of London Theatres Springboard Tiffany & Co Transport for London Watches of Switzerland

GILL CORISH DIRECTOR OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS TEL: +44 (0)20746206800 EMAIL: [email protected]

WWW.NEWWESTEND.COM @NEWWESTEND