U.S. Department Northwest Mountain Region of Transportation Seattle Airports District Office Federal Aviation 2200 S. 216th Street Administration Des Moines, WA 98198
November 13, 2018
Ms. Lauren Behm Interim Administrator Pierce County Airport & Ferry Division Pierce County Airport –Thun Field 2702 S 42nd Street, Suite 201 Tacoma, WA 98409
Pierce County Airport – Thun Field (PLU) Aviation Forecast Approval
Dear Lauren:
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Seattle Airports District Office has reviewed the aviation forecast for the Pierce County Airport –Thun Field (PLU) Master Plan Update, submitted November 9, 2018. The FAA approves these forecasts for airport planning purposes, including for Airport Layout Plan (ALP) development. The FAA approval is based on the following:
1. The difference between the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and Pierce County Airport –Thun Field’s forecast for total operations is within the 10 percent and 15 percent allowance for the 5-year and 10-year planning horizons. 2. The difference between the TAF and Pierce County Airport –Thun Field’s forecast for based aircraft is not within the 10 percent allowance for the 5-year. We concur with these reasons and believe the differences have been resolved. Furthermore, it is within the 15 percent allowance for the 10-year planning horizon. 3. The forecast is based on reasonable planning assumptions, current data and appropriate forecasting methodologies.
Based on the approved forecast, the FAA also approves the existing critical aircraft typified by the Cessna 441 Conquest II (RDC DB-II) and the future critical aircraft typified by the Cessna Citation 510 Series (RDC of B-II).
The approval of the forecast and critical aircraft does not automatically constitute a commitment on the part of the Unites States to participate in any development recommended in the master plan or shown on the ALP. All future development will need to be justified by current activity levels at the time of proposed implementation. Further, the approved forecasts may be subject to additional analysis or the FAA may request a sensitivity analysis if this data is to be used for environmental or Part 150 noise planning purposes.
If you have any questions about this forecast approval, please call me at (206) 231-4135.
Sincerely,
Jennifer I. Kandel Planner, FAA Seattle Airports District Office
AIRPORT MASTER PLAN PIERCE COUNTY AIRPORT-THUN FIELD (PLU)
NOVEMBER 2018
FINAL REPORT – CHAPTER 2 (AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS)
FAA APPROVED (11-13-2018)
“The preparation of this document may have been supported, in part, through the Airport Improvement Program financial assistance from the Federal Aviation Administration (AIP Project Number 3-53-0052- 018-2016) as provided under Title 49 U.S.C., Section 47104. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA. Acceptance of this report by the FAA does not in any way constitute a commitment on the part of the United States to participate in any development depicted therein nor does it indicate that the proposed development is environmentally acceptable or would have justification in accordance with appropriate public laws.”
PIERCE COUNTY AIRPORT-THUN FIELD FORECAST CHAPTER
CHAPTER 2. AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS
2.0 CHAPTER OVERVIEW
This chapter presents the aviation activity forecasts for the Pierce County Airport-Thun Field (“Airport” or “PLU”). The aviation demand forecasts identify the 20-year aeronautical activity projections. The forecasts are used to assess the type, timing, and allocation of future Airport infrastructure, equipment, and service needs to support Master Plan facility recommendations, alternatives, and project funding strategies.
2.1 FORECAST SUMMARY
Table 2.1 summarizes the forecast levels and growth rates by activity component. The Airport’s aviation activity is projected to increase about one percent annually throughout the 20-year forecast period. The principal factors shaping the Airport’s aviation demand forecasts are:
• The Pierce County region exhibits high growth and strong aviation demand potential • Airport hangar waiting list is 20 to 60 aircraft • Airport flight training rise to meet airline professional pilot hiring demands • Transition towards higher performance aircraft • Airport serving more prominent education and emerging business role
TABLE 2.1: MASTER PLAN FORECAST SUMMARY
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2.2 FORECAST APPROACH
The forecasts quantify a realistic expectation of future aviation demand, as substantiated from general aviation industry factors. As illustrated in Exhibit 2.1, the forecasts are prepared consistent with technical and procedural guidance from Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Advisory Circular 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans . This process uses FAA data and methods to project aviation activity, and to select a single preferred forecast for FAA approval and to carry-forward throughout the Master Plan.
EXHIBIT 2.1: AIRPORT MASTER PLAN FORECAST PROCESS
Forecast Elements: Forecasts are developed for the following aviation components:
• Based Aircraft (aircraft type, FAA category) • Annual Aircraft Operations (aircraft type/mix, FAA category, operational peaking) • Critical/Demand Aircraft (aircraft type, characteristics, and FAA design category)
Forecast Timeline: The forecasts are prepared for each year throughout the 20-year planning period (2018 to 2037), with 2017 as the existing baseline year. Forecasts are identified in five-year increments within three planning phases: the short-term (2018-2022); the mid-term (2023-2027); and the long- term (2028-2037). Forecasts reflect the FAA fiscal year from October to September, unless otherwise noted.
Forecast Statistical Analysis: The Airport Master Plan forecasting techniques follow FAA- acceptable statistical methods, including times-series trend, regression, comparative analysis, and market share techniques. Forecast projections are developed for ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ demand scenarios using qualitative and quantitative factors, to realize a high statistical confidence and reasonable forecast causation. Forecast values are rounded, with year-to-year net annual changes expressed by compounded annual growth rates (CAGR).
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Airport Forecast Vision: The Master Plan Advisory Committee (MPAC) developed the following mission statement as part of the Master Plan strategic vision, in which the forecasts are intended to align with the mission statement values. “We are a Puget Sound regional airport offering a hub of facilities and services to promote general aviation for recreational, professional flight training, business, and emergency response interests. Our Airport is supported by passionate pilots and patrons, with a love for experiencing aviation together!”
Historically, the Airport has not been served by a scheduled passenger airline or air cargo operator; and these activities are not anticipated as part of the Airport’s future role.
2.3 DATA - AVIATION FORECAST RESOURCES
Forecast data was assembled from Airport activity General Aviation: Activity by aircraft flown records, primarily the PLU camera traffic counts for private and business purposes, conducted from April 2016 to November 2017, PLU comprising recreational, sport, flight tenant and user interviews, FAA 5010 and FAA based instruction, on-demand charter, tourism, and governmental. aircraft database, WSDOT Airport and Facilities website, along with aviation industry trade publication factbooks (GAMA, NBAA). Community and socioeconomic data used for forecasting was obtained from Pierce County sources (see attachment for data sources). The following forecast sources were reviewed to substantiate historical and projected aeronautical activity patterns for application to the Master Plan forecasts.
FAA Aerospace Forecasts
The FAA Aerospace Forecasts (Fiscal Years 2017 to 2037) provides aviation industry projections by aeronautical sector. The FAA prepares this document annually to identify the 20-year demands on the nationwide airport and airspace system. Referenced throughout this chapter, this FAA aerospace data is used to identify general aviation industry activity patterns; including industry trends, the direction of future demand, and challenges to growth.
FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF)
The FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) serve as the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF): baseline for historical and forecast activity. The TAF is The official FAA record of historic and prepared annually by the FAA as the official forecast of projected airport activity, as prepared annually by the FAA for all airports in the aviation activity for airports included in the FAA National National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) . The TAF (NPIAS) . forecasts are developed in an unconstrained top-down manner, including activity for general aviation aircraft operations (itinerant and local activity) and total based aircraft. It should be noted that the TAF forecast methodology for individual airports is not published, in addition, the TAF tends to lag one year, and may not necessarily reflect the snapshot of
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current airport activity, nor take into account recent locally-drive forecast factors. Therefore, for Master Plan consistency, the TAF has been ‘indexed’ to the actual 2017 Airport activity levels, as already reported by the Airport to the FAA Airports District Office (ADO).
Exhibit 2.2 depicts the historical and projected FAA TAF (published January, 2018), in addition to actual 2017 Airport activity levels, and a description of major changes in historical trends. Annual Aircraft Operations (2018 to 2037): Total 20-year operations increase 43,226 (2,150 annual average), from 103,724 in 2018 to 146,950 in 2037, a 42 percent overall growth and a 1.8 percent annual rate.
Based Aircraft (2018 to 2037): Total 20-year based aircraft increase of 133 (6.7 annual average), from 233 in 2018 to 366 in 2037, a 57 percent overall growth and a 2.3 percent annual rate.
In 2008, there was a decline in total based aircraft, Operation Per Based Aircraft (OPBA): because of the national recession and the County The ratio of annual operations to total housing market devaluation. Since 2013, based aircraft based aircraft; as an activity index measure have consistently increased from 180 to a current total of of airport utilization. 253 (FAA National Based Aircraft Inventory Registry). During this same period, aircraft operations have remained consistent, with slight increases since 2015. Similarly, the Operations Per Based Aircraft (OPBA) has averaged 480, and consistently ranged between 400 and 500 operations. The 2017 OPBA was 420 (106,300 operations ÷ 253 based aircraft = 420 OPBA). The Airport’s OPBA is consistent with FAA general planning guidance of 450 OPBA for busy general aviation reliever airports with large itinerant operations, as established in FAA Order 5090.3C. Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) .
Washington State Aviation System Plan (WSDOT) Forecasts
The Washington State Aviation System Plan (dated July 2017) includes general aviation demand forecasts, combined for airport categories. As a ‘regional’ airport category, the Pierce County Airport- Thun Field is within a group of airports forecasted to experience a 0.8 percent annual increase in based aircraft, and a 1.1 percent annual increase in aircraft operations.
2.4 GENERAL AVIATION ACTIVITY TRENDS
General aviation represents the largest and most significant segment of the national air transportation system; accounting for 96 percent of all civilian airports, 97 percent of all civilian aircraft, 75 percent of all airport operations, and over 65 percent of all certified pilots. With nearly 70 percent of all general aviation flying conducted for business purposes, general aviation provides an important transportation commerce link within the Puget Sound Region. As documented below, general aviation trends and forecast factors were reviewed from FAA aeronautical reports and publications as part of preparing the PLU Master Plan forecasts. A review of industry trends, by general aviation market segment, provides insight into drivers of past change and emerging forecast directions.
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EXHIBIT 2.2: FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST (TAF): BASED AIRCRAFT / OPERATIONS
Historical and FAA TAF Forecast Based Aircraft 450 430 410 390 370 350 253 Total Based Aircraft 330 Report to FAA 310 290 National Economic 270 Downturn
BASED AIRCRAFT BASED AIRCRAFT 250 230 County 210 Economic Recovery 190 FAA TERMINAL ARE AFORECAST (TAF) 170 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 150 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Actual FAA TAF Actual FAA TAF Linear (Actual Based Based (Indexed) Based)
Historical and FAA TAF Annual Aircraft Operations
170,000
150,000
Airport 130,000 Reporting
110,000
2016-2017 90,000 PLU Airport Traffic Counts
70,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL
HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 50,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical FAA FAA FAA TAF Linear (Historical) TAF TAF (Indexed)
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National General Aviation Industry Trends
The FAA reports the historical and projected differences among the general aviation user sectors and aircraft fleet. The following summarizes, by aircraft type, the general aviation fleet size and hourly utilization changes from 2017 to 2037, as projected in the FAA Aerospace Forecasts and the 2015 FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey .
Aircraft Fleet: . Single-Piston: -0.6 % of Fleet Size | -0.5 % Hourly Utilization . Twin-Piston: -0.4 % of Fleet Size | -0.2 % Hourly Utilization . Turboprop: +1.5 % of Fleet Size | +1.7 % Hourly Utilization . Business Jets: +2.8 % of Fleet Size | +3.6 % Hourly Utilization . Helicopters: +2.5 % of Fleet Size | +3.0 % Hourly Utilization . Experimental/Sport: +1.4 % of Fleet Size | +1.4 % Hourly Utilization
Pilot Population (% Annual Growth): . Total Pilots +0.1 % . Students/Flight Training: +0.4 %
Annual Aircraft Hourly Utilization (Nationwide Fleet): . Single-Piston: 80 to 100 hours per year . Twin-Piston: 100 to 125 hours per year . Turboprop: 200 to 300 hours per year . Business Jets: 350 to 400 hours per year . Helicopters: 300 to 400 hours per year
Nationwide, the general aviation industry is experiencing prolonged slow growth, and an aircraft fleet continuing to undergo transition in production and utilization. In terms of aircraft production and flight hour utilization, the combined piston fleet is declining by -0.5 percent annually, while the combined turbine (turboprop and business jet) fleet is growing at 2.5 percent annually.
The single and multi-engine piston aircraft fleet is experiencing a high rate of continued attrition and retirement, coupled with the declining production of single and twin piston aircraft. Turboprop aircraft utilization is increasing, but under moderate single-turboprop production rates and flat twin-turboprop production. The business jet, helicopter, and experimental/light sport piston aircraft segments are seeing continued increases in aircraft utilization and production rates.
Per the FAA 2015 General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey, the general aviation industry is experiencing growth resulting from corporate aircraft utilization, fractional ownership programs, student and commercial pilot training, and growth of the experimental/sport aircraft segment. Factors impeding general aviation industry growth involve escalating aircraft operating costs (such as purchase price, rental, maintenance, fuel, insurance and taxes), an overall national decline in private pilot populations, more demanding pilot and aircraft regulatory requirements (such as pilot qualifications and aircraft avionic installation timeline) and competing interests for personal income and leisure time.
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The Pierce County Airport-Thun Field tends to overcome the downward nationwide general aviation trends, likely due to serving a large and rapidly growing metroplex population, and as a center for flight education and training activities.
State and Regional General Aviation Industry Trends
Statewide, per FAA TAF data, based aircraft are forecast to increase 1.1 percent annually and aircraft operations are forecast to increase 0.5 percent annually. Regionally, as combined for the four surrounding public use airports (Thun Field-PLU, Tacoma Narrows-TIW, Olympia-OLM, Auburn-S50), based aircraft are forecast to increase 2.0 percent annually and aircraft operations are forecast to increase 3.3 percent. As a combined average, the Operations Per Based Aircraft (OPBA) is 504, which is a higher activity level than the Washington statewide OPBA of 430. As a regional market share, the Pierce County Airport-Thun Field accounts for about 33 percent of the 750 combined based aircraft and 28 percent of the 394,000 combined annual aircraft operations amongst the surrounding general aviation airports within the south Seattle metropolitan area (Tacoma, Federal Way, Olympia).
2.5 SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS
Socioeconomic data quantifies demographic profiles and commerce trends, and is used in the forecasts to identify Airport activity associated with community patterns. Per FAA Advisory Circular 5070-6B guidance, the key econometric indicators used for aviation forecasts are: 1) population, 2) employment, and 3) per capita personal income.
Table 2.2 summarizes the major socioeconomic indexes for the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), expressed by values and percent year-to-year change. The MSA, when annualized as a composite of socioeconomic index categories, has historically grown 2.3 percent between 1970 and 2015. As projected by Woods and Poole, the MSA composite index is forecast to grow at 1.7 percent between 2015 and 2035, similar to the historical 1.9 percent rate from 2000 and 2015. The 2015 to 2035 MSA rates are comparable with the State of Washington 2.3 percent growth, and United States 1.6 percent growth. The Airport’s activity is anticipated to respond to continued Pierce County population and commerce growth, largely driven by housing expansion. In addition, the Washington Office of Financial Management-OFM projects the Pierce County population to increase 3.5 to 5.5 percent annually through 2025, an annualized rate historically beyond general aviation industry growth levels.
2.6 ANALYSIS - AIRPORT FORECAST FACTORS
The forecasts consider airport, community, and aviation Unconstrained Forecast: An unfettered industry factors for developing reasonable Airport demand, not influenced by factors demand activity projections. Performed by the Master impacting forecast activity or facility needs.
Plan Advisory Committee (MPAC), the Strength, Constrained Forecast: Factors affected Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat (SWOT) analysis the forecast of demand and activity level. identified upward (+) and downward (-) factors, or qualitative and quantitative benchmarks, that could realistically influence the Airport’s 20-year activity levels.
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TABLE 2.2: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SUMMARY (METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA–MSA) SOCIO-ECONOMIC MSA SUMMARY AND COMPOSITE AVERAGE Metric Category: Reported Values Values - Historical Periods Values - Forecast Periods ($ - Millions) 1970 2000 2015 2020 2025 2035 Total MSA Population 413,364 703,993 835,945 881,038 928,068 1,022,887 Total Employment 186,871 333,841 406,733 437,150 467,316 524,646 Total Earnings 6,394 14,461 21,350 23,780 26,359 31,840 Total Personal Income 8,189 24,319 35,243 39,712 44,647 54,430 Total Personal Income Per Capita 19,811 34,544 42,159 45,074 48,107 53,212 Total Mean Household Personal Income 10,767 23,251 36,750 41,062 45,640 55,350 Total Retail Sales 60,356 90,366 106,528 113,364 121,659 138,429 Gross Regional Product 3,177 8,846 11,994 13,121 14,199 16,363 Metric Category: Percents % Change - Historical Periods % Change - Forecast Periods (% Year to Year Change) 1970-2015 2000-2015 2010-2015 2015-2020 2015-2025 2015-2035 Total MSA Population 1.58% 1.15% 1.00% 1.06% 1.05% 1.01% Total Employment 1.74% 1.33% 1.50% 1.45% 1.40% 1.28% Total Earnings 2.72% 2.63% 1.47% 2.18% 2.13% 2.02% Total Personal Income 3.30% 2.50% 1.87% 2.42% 2.39% 2.20% Total Personal Income Per Capita 1.69% 1.34% 0.87% 1.35% 1.33% 1.17% Total Mean Household Personal Income 2.77% 3.10% 1.17% 2.24% 2.19% 2.07% Total Retail Sales 1.27% 1.10% 0.26% 1.25% 1.34% 1.32% Gross Regional Product 3.00% 2.05% 3.21% 1.81% 1.70% 1.57% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% COMPOSITE AVERAGE: 1.9% 1.7% Note: Composite Average = Percent average of metric category, to express an overalll socio-economic rate of change. Note: Underline percent values denotes an individual category growth rate greater than 2 percent. Source: Pierce County, Washington MSA # 53053.
Table 2.3 is a matrix summarizing the forecasts factors applicable to the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios. As described below, the assignment of these benchmarks per forecast scenario provides a range of differentiation between the constrained and unconstrained demand levels. Establishing scenarios using this method also helps identify appropriate statistical methods, provides direct relationships with forecast causation, and asserts reasonableness in selecting a single forecast scenario to carry forward as the preferred Master Plan forecast.
Qualitative Forecast Factors: Macro-factors influencing Airport demand activity - Defines the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios - Define ‘constrained’ to ‘unconstrained’ demand
Quantitative Forecast Factors: Micro-factors influencing Airport demand activity - Defines the forecast statistical method or technique - Provides a comparison for evaluation of forecast scenarios
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TABLE 2.3: FORECAST SCENARIO MATRIX FORECAST SCENARIO FACTORS
Forecasts Scenario -----> Scenario 'A' Scenario 'B' Scenario 'C'
Demand Parameter ----> Low Medium High Constrained Parameter ----> Constrained Mixed Unconstrained Qualitative 'Macro' Forecast Factors (Performance Benchmarks)
Airport Expands to Meet Mission Statement: No Partial Yes County Supports Airport Mission and Development Needs Minimal Partial Yes Community Supports Airport Mission Minimal Partial Yes Supports 'Recreational-Flight Training' Yes Yes Yes Supports Transition to Airport 'Business/Executive' Role No No Yes Supports County Transportation and Emergency Services Minimal Partial Yes Airport Expands to Meet User and Tenant Demands Minimal Partial Yes Airport Improves 'Front Door' Appearance Minimal Partial Yes Hangar/Building Investments and Expansion No Partial Yes County Hangar Participation No Partial Yes FBO / Hangar Condo Association (Private Partnerships) No Partial Yes Future Tenants (Private Development Partnerships) No Partial Yes Airport Absorbs Demand from Surrounding GA Airports No Partial Yes Airport Overcomes Fluctuation Cycles Minimal Partial Yes Economy (Civilian and Military Sectors) Minimal Partial Yes General Aviation Industry Minimal Partial Yes Quantitative 'Micro' Forecast Factors (Performance Benchmarks)
Accommodate Revolving Hangar Waiting-List No Partial Yes County T-Hangar(s) Reconstructed/Replaced (50 Units) No Partial Yes Provide Expanded Terminal/Landside Facilities - West Side No Partial Yes Provide New Terminal/Landside Expansion - East Side No Partial Yes Provide FBO/SASO Expansion - West Side No Partial Yes Provide FBO/SASO Expansion - East Side No Partial Yes Provide Expanded Flight Training and Education Minimal Partial Yes Accommodate Business-Corporate Users/Aircraft No Partial Yes Provide Jet-A Fuel No Yes Yes Provide Larger Hangars (Turbine Aircraft) No No Yes Provide Longer Runway (Turbine Aircraft) No No Yes Pilot 24-Hour Building/Restroom Access No Yes Yes Resolve Airport Security Issues Minimal Partial Yes Note: 'Yes': Forecast factor met | 'Partial': Forecast factor not fully considered | 'Partial/Minimal': Meets basic level
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2.7 GENERAL AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST
2.7.1 BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST
Based Aircraft Forecast – Overview
The based aircraft forecast directly influences planning of Airport operations, space allocation, and property assets. Based aircraft, including fixed-wing and helicopter, are those stored at the Airport under a hangar or tie-down agreement. The FAA registers based aircraft by type, including single- engine (piston and turboprops), multi-engine (piston and turboprops), jets, helicopter, and other (experimental and light sport aircraft weighing less than 1,300 pounds).
Based Aircraft Forecast – Existing Condition
Per the FAA National Based Aircraft Inventory Program, the Airport reported 253 total based aircraft in 2017; comprised of 241 single-engine piston (95%), 10 multi-engine piston (4%), 2 turboprops (1%), 0 business jets (0%), and 0 helicopters (0%). Historically, the based aircraft are single and twin piston- engine aircraft, reflective of the Airport’s recreational and flight training role. The Airport has a committed-paid hangar waiting list of 20 to 30 aircraft, and a total hangar waiting list demand estimated at 40 to 60 aircraft. Historically, the waiting-list demand has outpaced the Airport’s ability to accommodate additional hangars for based aircraft.
Existing Based Aircraft Mix:
Total Based Aircraft = 253 Personal Based Aircraft = 227 Piston/Turbine (90% of based aircraft) FBO/Flight Training Based Aircraft = 26 Piston (10% of based aircraft)
Based Aircraft Forecast – Future Condition
Based aircraft will continue to be mostly single and twin-piston aircraft; as evident of the Airport’s hangar waiting list. However, it is a reasonable expectation there would be a transition towards higher performance turbine-engine aircraft and helicopters, as a proportion of the total based aircraft and as a percentage total traffic. This transition is reflective of: 1) nationwide general aviation aircraft manufacturing and hourly aircraft utilization, 2) FBO inquiries, and, 3) based aircraft growing 2 percent annually for the comparison south Puget Sound general aviation ‘regional’ airports (FAA TAF for Tacoma-TIW, Olympia-OLM, Auburn-S50, Thun Field-PLU).
The following are significant Airport factors in accommodating future based aircraft:
- Provide additional and larger hangars; based on a reasonable hangar construction schedule - Provide Jet-A fuel (used by turbine-powered aircraft) - Expand runway/airfield infrastructure - FBO/SASO facility and service expansion
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The following are significant Airport factors to accommodate the future based aircraft types:
Piston Aircraft Forecast Condition: The Airport’s ability to accommodate additional piston aircraft is largely contingent on providing more and adequate hangars. Based on the Airport hangar waiting list, and under an unconstrained demand scenario, 40 to 60-plus additional aircraft could be based at the Airport during the next 20-years. Typically, 80 to 90 percent of the total based aircraft are hangared; the remaining stored on parking tie-downs; as pilot owners find it undesirable to expose the aircraft to outside elements that can deteriorate aircraft integrity and value. The Airport’s hangar waiting list entails a ‘commitment’ paid and prioritized list, in addition to an ‘uncommitted’ list of revolving hangar interest and inquiries. The committed list includes aircraft not currently based at the Airport due to a lack of hangar availability. In addition, there is a trend towards student pilots purchasing aircraft, as part of completing flight training or once certificated; on average accounting for 1 to 3 additional based aircraft per year. The following summarizes on-going based piston aircraft demands:
Committed ‘Paid’ Hangar Waiting-List: ±20 to 30 additional based piston aircraft Uncommitted Hangar Waiting-List: ±40 to 60 additional based piston aircraft New Flight Training Aircraft Demand: +6 to +10 additional based piston aircraft
Turbine Aircraft Forecast Condition: The Airport’s ability to accommodate turbine based aircraft demand (turboprop and light/small-cabin business jets) is largely contingent on the providing Jet-A fuel, new and larger hangar space, and additional runway length/width. There is interest in basing additional turboprop aircraft at the Airport, particularly for providing on-demand charter passenger service and flight training. In addition, there is on-going interest in basing a light/small jet at the Airport, by existing turboprop aircraft owners looking to upgrade to higher performance aircraft.
For comparison, the following are turbine based aircraft amongst the FAA ‘Regional’ general aviation airports within the Puget Sound (Thun Field-PLU, Tacoma-TIW, Arlington-AWO, Olympia-OLM, Bremerton-PWT, Renton-RNT, Paine-PAE):
Total Regional Aircraft = 3,109 | Average = 279 Total Turboprops = 64 | Average = 6 (2% to 2.5% of total based aircraft) Total Business Jets = 49 | Average = 5 (1.5% to 2.0% of total based aircraft)
Based on a combined average of the FAA regional airport, and assuming an unconstrained demand scenario, the Pierce County Airport-Thun Field could reasonably base 4 to 7 turboprops (single/twin) and 2 to 4 based light/small business jets during the next 20-years (light/small-cabin jets constitute 65 percent of the entire business jet fleet as documented by the General Aviation Manufacturing Association – 2017 GAMA Factbook). As a comparison, the Tacoma Narrows Airport-TIW, with a 5,000-foot runway, bases 12 turbine aircraft (6 turboprops and 6 business jets), in which turbine operations constitutes 29 percent of the total Airport traffic (25 percent by turboprops and 5 percent by jets). From this, the following summarizes the Airport’s 20-year based turbine demand projections:
Flight Charter/Training Demand: +1 to ±2 additional based turbine aircraft Turbine Hangar Demand: ±2 to ±6 additional based turbine aircraft
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Based Aircraft Forecast – Scenarios A total of ten (10) candidate based aircraft forecast projections were developed for consideration, using various statistical techniques (trend, regression, market share). Following input from the Airport Staff and Master Plan Advisory Committee, the candidate forecasts were narrowed to three (3) forecast scenarios. The three forecast scenarios were selected because they demonstrated a statistical causation and reasonable range with the low, medium, and high forecast rationale outlined in Table 3.2 . Below is a summary of the candidate forecast range and averages.
Candidate Forecast Summary: 10 Based Aircraft Forecast Projections Low Range = 190 High Range = 380 Average = 307
Exhibit 2.3 graphs the based aircraft forecast scenarios (low, medium, high), along with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) forecast. The following describes the ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ forecast scenario methods, and recommendation of a preferred based aircraft forecast:
Scenario A: Demand Factor: Low - Constrained Forecast Method: FAA Aerospace Forecasts aircraft fleet annual growth rates Outcome: 257 by 2037 (+4 aircraft @ 1.5% 20-year change)
Scenario B: Demand Factor: Medium – Partially Constrained Forecast Method: Moderate new hangar expansion; for piston and some turbine aircraft Outcome: 312 by 2037 (+54 aircraft @ 20% 20-year change)
Scenario C: Demand Factor: High – Unconstrained Demand Forecast Method: High new hangar expansion; for piston and turbine aircraft Outcome: 347 by 2037 (+90 aircraft @ 35% 20-year change)
Forecast Recommendation: Scenario B is recommended because it is attainable with respect to the Airport’s on-going hangar waiting list demands, is achievable based on past Airport condo association hangar construction, and is consistent with FBO/Clover Park flight program student pilot growth expectations. Scenario B anticipates additional based aircraft initially through tie-downs, then a hangar construction schedule capable of accommodating an average of 2 to 3 additional based planes per year. Without hangar construction, the based aircraft would likely track between the Scenario A and Scenario B forecast. In addition, the Scenario B forecast level is consistent with the FAA TAF based aircraft demand projection.
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EXHIBIT 2.3: BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS – CANDIDATE (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH)
450 430 410 390 370 350 HIGH 330
310 MEDIUM 290 270 LOW
BASED AIRCRAFT BASED AIRCRAFT 250 230 210 190 170 HISTORICAL FORECAST PERIOD PERIOD 150 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical FAA TAF FAA TAF Low Medium High (Indexed)
BASED AIRCRAFT - FORECAST SCENARIOS FAA Actual FAA Based AC Based AC Based AC TAF Year Existing TAF Forecast Forecast Forecast (PLU MP 2017 (1-2018) (Low) (Medium) (High) Indexed) 2017 253 227 253 253 253 253 2018 -- 233 259 253 258 257 2022 -- 262 288 254 265 284 2027 -- 294 320 255 277 307 2032 -- 327 353 256 292 327 2037 -- 366 392 257 312 347 2040 -- 392 418 258 317 359
20-Year Change -- 133 133 4 54 90 20-Year Annual Average -- 7 7 0 3 5 20-Year % Change -- 57.1% 51.4% 1.5% 20.9% 35.0% % CAGR -- 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5%
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Table 2.4 lists the preferred 20-year based aircraft forecast, by aircraft type. The forecast was developed from Airport FBO input. In addition, the forecast is consistent with the mix of based aircraft at surrounding general aviation ‘regional’ airports (Tacoma-TIW, Arlington-AWO, Olympia-OLM, Bremerton-PWT, Renton-RNT, Paine-PAE) and is consistent with the FAA general aviation fleet projections (FAA Aerospace Forecast, Table 28). The forecast of aircraft type is reflective of the transition towards higher performance aircraft. Helicopters are forecast to be based at the Airport, as a potential to serve governmental agency and emergency response, medical flights, and flight training purposes.
TABLE 2.4: PREFERRED BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS – BY AIRCRAFT TYPE PREFERRED BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST - AIRCRAFT TYPE Piston Fixed-Wing Turbine Fixed-Wing Helicopters Year Single Twin Light/Small TOTAL Turboprop (Rotorcraft) Engine Piston Cabin Jet 2017 241 10 2 0 0 253 2018 246 10 2 0 0 258 2022 251 10 3 0 1 265 2027 259 11 5 0 2 277 2032 270 12 6 1 3 292 2037 289 12 7 1 3 312 2040 293 13 7 1 3 317
20-Year Change 43 2 5 1 3 54 20-Year % Average 2 0 0 0 0 2.7 20-Year % Change 17.4% 20.9% 243.2% -- -- 20.9%
% CAGR 0.8% 1.0% 6.4% -- -- 1.0%
2.7.2 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST
Aircraft Operations - Overview
The aircraft operations forecast directly influences Airport airfield and airspace utilization, taxiway system geometry, and airport infrastructure assets. Aircraft operations, defined as either a takeoff or a landing, determine the year-by-year total number of annual operations. The FAA classifies aircraft operations by single-engine piston, multi-engine piston, jet (includes jets and turboprops), helicopter, and other (includes experimental and light sport aircraft weighing less than 1,300 pounds).
Aircraft Operations – Existing Conditions
The Airport reported 106,300 aircraft operations in 2017, an increase above the estimated 100,000 annual operations reported since 2006. Since 2000, the annual operations have ranged between 97,600 and 266,800.
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Aircraft Operations – Future Conditions
In the future, annual aircraft operations are forecast to increase. The growth is expected to correlate with based aircraft trends, flight training, and the forecast transition towards greater turbine-engine aircraft and helicopters traffic, and as a percentage of the total Airport traffic level.
The following are significant Airport factors to accommodate the future aircraft operations:
- Provide runway and taxiway system infrastructure to accommodate traffic capacity - Flight training growth (student enrollments, aircraft fleet, support staff and services) - Provide or incentivize construction of additional hangars - Provide or incentivize expansion of FBO services and facilities
The following are Airport factors in considering activity by aircraft type (piston and turbine):
Piston Aircraft Forecast Condition: The Airport’s ability to accommodate additional piston aircraft operations is contingent on providing adequate aircraft parking and hangar capacity. Increases in piston operations would correspond with the net gain of piston based aircraft, flight training, and higher utilization by more active business-operated aircraft. The flight training programs based at the Airport are experiencing increasing student demands and have expansion capabilities, in terms of additional student enrollment capacity. Assuming an unconstrained demand scenario, the Airport could reasonably experience a growth of piston aircraft operations comparable to the forecast of piston based aircraft. The following are estimates of additional net Airport annual operations per piston based aircraft types, ad determined in consideration of aircraft hourly utilization, flight duration, and proficiency-training flights:
Recreational/Sport (Single/Twin Piston) +190 Operations per Year Business (Single/Twin Piston) +160 Operations per Year Flight Training (Single/Twin Piston) +3,200 Operations per Year Helicopter (Piston) +400 Operations per Year
Turbine Aircraft Forecast Condition: The Airport’s ability to accommodate turbine aircraft traffic (turboprop and light/small-cabin business jets) is largely contingent on providing adequate runway infrastructure, and providing aircraft and pilot services oriented towards servicing transient and based turbine users (Jet-A fuel, dedicated apron parking, transient hangar space, turbine aircraft flightline services – tug, auxiliary power, catering). The reason for the forecast increase of based turboprops is due to: 1) planned FBO Jet-A fuel installation, 2) turboprop acquisition for shared on-demand charter and flight training at PLU, 3) accommodating turboprop operators from surrounding airports – the FAA GA Regional Airports have an average of 4 to 9 based turboprop aircraft, 4) the transition and industry growth of turboprop aircraft production – over piston aircraft production and utilization. Turbine aircraft operations would also increase corresponding with the number of future based turbine aircraft.
The following are estimated additional net Airport annual operations by turbine based aircraft types:
Business (Turbine) 230 Operations per Year Helicopter (Turbine) 560 Operations per Year
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Aircraft Operations – Forecast Scenarios A total of ten (10) candidate annual aircraft operation forecast projections were developed for consideration, using various statistical techniques (growth trend, smoothing, regression, market share). Following input from the Airport Staff and Master Plan Advisory Committee, the candidate forecasts were narrowed to three (3) forecast scenarios. The three forecast scenarios were selected because they represented a reasonable association with the low, medium, and high forecast rationale outlined in Table 3.2 . Below is a summary of the candidate forecast range and averages.
Candidate Forecast Summary: 10 Operations Forecast Projections Low Range = 101,200 High Range = 143,200 Average = 123,900
Exhibit 2.4 graphs the aircraft operation forecast scenarios (low, medium, high), along with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) forecast. The following describes the ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ forecast scenario methods, and recommendation of a preferred based aircraft forecast:
Scenario A: Demand Factor: Low - Constrained Forecast Method: Trendline Analysis Outcome: 112,300 by 2037 (+6,000 @ 0.3% 20-year change)
Scenario B: Demand Factor: Medium – Partially Constrained Forecast Method: Historical Average Annual Incremental Change (+788 ops per year) Outcome: 122,100 by 2037 (+15,800 @ 0.8% 20-year change)
Scenario C: Demand Factor: High – Unconstrained Demand Forecast Method: Forecast Based Aircraft to Operations Per Based Aircraft (OPBA) Ratio Outcome: 137,200 by 2037 (+28,800 @ 1.2% 20-year change)
Forecast Recommendation: Scenario C is recommended because it is coincident with the based aircraft forecast net gains (+54 based aircraft in 20 years) as indexed with the Airport’s operations per based aircraft, is reasonable with respect to the growth of the Airport’s flight training programs for professional pilots, and is consistent with the Airport experiencing higher activity utilization as part assuming a greater educational and business role. The Scenario C forecast is also consistent with the FAA TAF projection.
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EXHIBIT 2.4: AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS – CANDIDATE (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH)
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000 HIGH
130,000
MEDIUM 120,000
LOW 110,000
100,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL 90,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 80,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical FAA High Medium Low FAA TAF TAF Forecast Forecast Forecast (Indexed)
AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST SCENARIOS FAA Operations Operations Operations FAA Year TAF Forecast Forecast Forecast TAF (Indexed) (Low) (Medium) (High) 2017 101,844 106,300 106,300 106,300 106,300 2018 103,724 108,300 107,800 107,100 108,400 2022 111,602 116,300 108,600 110,300 112,800 2027 122,307 127,200 106,800 114,200 119,700 2032 134,054 139,200 110,000 118,200 127,700 2037 146,950 152,300 112,300 122,100 137,200 2040 155,283 160,800 113,100 124,500 140,700
20-Year Change 43,226 44,000 4,500 15,000 28,800 20-Year Annual Average 2,161 2,200 225 750 1,440 20-Year % Change 41.7% 40.6% 4.2% 14.0% 26.6% % CAGR 1.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% Note: 2017 is the existing baseline year | 2018 is year-one of the 20-year forecast period. Note: FAA TAF Indexed to 2017 actual PLU based aircraft count.
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2.7.3 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONAL MIX AND PEAKING FORECASTS
Table 2.5 summarizes the Airport’s operational peaking forecast, including the projected 20-year change in activity. Aircraft operational forecasts are used to assess Airport capacity needs, level of service, and space allocation requirements for airspace, airfield, and terminal purposes; as determined by various operational peaking components.
TABLE 2.5: AIRCRAFT OPERATIONAL PEAKING AIRCRAFT OPERATIONAL PEAKING
Operational Peaking Calculation Forecast Demand Activity 2017 Components Factor 2018 2037 20-Yr. Change Annual Operational Activity Total Annual Operations -- 106,300 110,300 137,200 26,900 Itinerant 61% 65,240 67,695 84,204 16,509 Local 39% 41,060 42,605 52,996 10,391 Touch & Go 20% 21,260 22,060 27,440 5,380 Visual (VFR) 82% 87,166 90,446 112,504 22,058 Instrument (IFR) 18% 19,134 19,854 24,696 4,842 Daytime 96% 102,048 105,888 131,712 25,824 Nigthtime 4% 4,252 4,412 5,488 1,076 Flight Training 68% 72,090 74,803 93,046 18,243 Runway End Operational Activity Runway 17 (North End) 40% 42,520 44,120 54,880 10,760 Runway 35 (South End) 60% 63,780 66,180 82,320 16,140 Monthly Operational Activity Peak Month 15.0% 15,945 16,545 20,580 4,035 Average Week Avg. Day/7 2,039 2,115 2,631 516 Average Day - Operations 365 Days 291 302 376 74 Average Day - Flights Ops/2 146 151 188 37 Average Day Peak Month 30.5 Days 523 542 675 132 Hourly Operational Activity Peak Hour 12% 62.7 65.1 81.0 15.9 Peak Hour - Itinerant 61% 19.3 20.0 24.8 4.9 Peak Hour - Local 39% 12.1 12.6 15.6 3.1 Peak Hour - IFR 20% 6.3 6.5 8.1 1.6 Peak Hour - VFR 80% 25.1 26.0 32.4 6.4
Note: Forecast values rounded, may not total. Note: Peaking based on Airport traffic counts and per FAA planning guidance. Note: Day traffic (7:00 am to 7:00 pm) | Night traffic (7:00 pm to 7:00 am)
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Peak activity levels are derived from annual aircraft operations, broken-down by month, day, and hour periods. Per FAA Advisory Circular 150/5060-5 Airport Capacity and Delay guidance, the average- day-peak-month (ADPM) is used to define the Airport’s busy period, in order to avoid constructing facilities for capacity rarely used. The ADPM peaking percentages, or calculation factors, are substantiated from Airport traffic records, in which the percent ratios are planned to remain consistent throughout the 20-year forecast period.
Flight Operating Conditions:
The following describes flight activity conditions projected throughout the 20-year planning period. Local traffic-pattern operations will increase in proportion with flight proficiency activity, attributed mostly to student flight training, instrument training, and other recreational/sport pilot proficiency. Itinerant/transient operations will continue to be in proportion with general aviation trends occurring throughout the Seattle metropolitan area, as evidence of a transition towards greater fixed-wing and helicopter business flights. Visual and instrument traffic will increase in proportion to the total traffic, with a shift towards more instrument operations resulting from more instrument-equipped aircraft and pilots. Similarly, night and daytime activity levels would remain in proportion to the total Airport traffic.
Flight Training:
The Airport has historically served as a base of operations for flight training and education. Combined, there are 26 based flight training aircraft conducting about 70,000 operations per year. On average, each flight training aircraft operates between 200 and 500 hours annually and conducts 2,600 Airport operations per year. The Clover Park Technical College and FBO’s report continued growth and future expansion of aviation training programs (pilots, instructors, mechanics), including increasing civilian and post-military student enrollments, procuring additional single and twin flight training aircraft, and expanding FAA Part 141 Pilot School curriculums. The regional growth of flight training activity is also evident at surrounding general aviation regional airports (Tacoma-TIW and Auburn-S50).
Flight training activity is expected to increase, principally in response to the industry demand for supplying professional pilots to meet domestic and international airline fleet acquisitions and to counter pilot shortages resulting from mandatory age retirements. However, Airport flight training activities are potentially challenged by impeding factors, including training aircraft procurements, business operating expenses, increasing regulations, supply of flight instructors, seasonal/weather fluctuations, cyclical airline economic and hiring conditions, and an increasingly congested airport system and airspace practice area.
Non-Scheduled Air Passenger Activity:
The Airport serves on-demand general aviation air charter passenger operators, however, these air taxi flights or passengers are not documented by the Airport or FAA. Tenants have expressed interest in obtaining FAA Part 135 certification for on-demand charter, which involves more regulated operating, crew, and security procedures as compared with FAA Part 91 on-demand flights. Since Part 135 on-demand charter activities are unable to receive FAA facility funding at general aviation airports, charter flights and passengers have not been forecast for Master Plan purposes. The on- demand passengers would not qualify as scheduled airline passengers, in which scheduled service is
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not forecast within the 20-year planning period.
Non-Scheduled Air Cargo Activity:
The Airport serves occasional on-demand air cargo flights (parts, supplies and light freight shipments), largely to support on-Airport businesses, which are not documented by the Airport or FAA. Scheduled air cargo operators could potentially service the Airport in the future, possibly for specialized freight shipments or express packages. However, other surrounding general aviation airports (OLM, TIW) would likely be a more favorable candidate, due to airfield infrastructure, instrument procedures, proximity to inter-connecting cargo and intermodal facilities, and surrounding roadway networks. Therefore, scheduled air cargo has not been forecast for the 20-year planning period.
2.7.4 CRITICAL AIRCRAFT FORECAST
The forecast of operations, by aircraft type, determines the application of FAA design standards used to plan safe and efficient Airport facilities. Exhibit 2.5 depicts the major aircraft classifications by representative type. Defined below, per FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 Airport Design , the FAA categorizes aircraft for airport planning and design purposes using: 1) AAC-approach speed, 2) ADG- wingspan/tail height, and 3) TDG-aircraft wheel configuration characteristics.
AAC: Aircraft Approach Category: alphabetic letter designating approach speed (knots) FAA Category ‘A’: Less than 90 knots FAA Category ‘B’: 91 to 120 knots (applicable to PLU)
ADG: Airplane Design Group: a roman numeral designating wingspan and tail height (feet) FAA Category ‘I’: Less than 49’ FAA Category ‘II’: 50’ to 79’ (applicable to PLU)
TDG: Taxiway Design Group: number designating aircraft wheel configurations (feet) FAA Category 1A/1B: Small piston aircraft FAA Category 2: Turboprop and small jets (applicable to PLU)
Aircraft Mix Forecast Operations
Over 95 percent of the total Airport traffic are single and twin-piston engine aircraft. Per FAA standards, these are considered ‘small’ category A/B-I aircraft, which weigh less than 12,500 pounds. As substantiated by the based aircraft and operations forecast, there is demand for increased traffic by higher performance turbine aircraft, including turboprops and light/small general aviation business jets. The turbine aircraft, which use Jet-A fuel, include ‘small’ and ‘large’ category B-I/II aircraft, some weighing more than 12,500 pounds, and with 10-plus passenger seats.
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Nationwide, the business jet fleet, comprised of 13,700 aircraft and increasing 2.3 percent annually, is larger than the turboprop fleet, comprised of 9,500 aircraft and increasing 1.5 percent annually. Although similar in size and weight, the turboprop can generally operate on a shorter runway length than jets, which potentially increases the proportion of turboprop flights at the Airport. As stated by FAA, “business jets have proved themselves to be a tremendous asset to corporations by satisfying their executive needs for flexibility in scheduling, speed, and privacy.”
EXHIBIT 2.5: AIRCRAFT CLASSIFICATIONS AND TYPES
For turbine aircraft mix forecast projection purposes, below is an estimation of additional net turbine traffic, as contingent upon providing Airport facilities and services supporting the higher performance turbine aircraft in the future. These activity levels are estimated based on FAA annual and hourly utilizations as published in the 2015 FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and General Aviation Manufacturing Association – GAMA, 2017 General Aviation Statistical Databook and Industry Outlook.
Single/Twin Turboprop Traffic (Fixed-Wing)
Existing Traffic 500 to 600 Annual Operations (Per 2017 PLU Traffic Count) Add Jet-A Fuel +1,000 to 1,200 Net Operations Build Hangar(s) +1,300 to 1,600 Net Operations Extend Runway + 2,200 to 2,400 Net Operations
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Light/Small Business Jet Traffic Existing Traffic 50 to 60 Annual Operations (Per 2017 PLU Traffic Count) Add Jet-A Fuel +200 to 250 Net Operations Build Hangar(s) +300 to 500 Net Operations Extend Runway +600 to 1,000 Net Operations
Critical Aircraft Forecast (FAA Airport/Runway Reference Code)
As defined by FAA, the critical aircraft is the most Critical Aircraft: The most demanding demanding aircraft type, or grouping of aircraft with aircraft category (approach speed, similar characteristics, regularly using the Airport. wingspan, weight) conducting 500 annual Regular use is 500 annual Airport operations, including operations at the Airport. both itinerant and local operations (either a takeoff or landing) but excludes touch-and-go operations (landing and takeoff in succession).
The following describes the existing and future critical aircraft forecasts, as determined from the forecast of operations and fleet mix. Exhibit 2.6 depicts the existing and future critical aircraft, and performance characteristics.
Existing Critical Aircraft: The existing critical aircraft is twin-turboprop airplane, representative of the Piper Cheyenne (turbine engine model), which is based at the Airport. Other similar turboprop aircraft operating at the Airport include the King Air 90/100 Series (ARC B-I) King Air 200/300 Series (ARC B-II), Pilatus PC-12/NG (ARC A/B-II), Cessna Conquest II (B-II), Piper Cheyenne I/II/II (ARC B-I), Cessna Caravan (ARC A-II), Malibu Meridian 400/500/600 Series (ARC A-I), and Socata TBM 700/800/900 Series (ARC A-I), DeHavilland Beavers (ARC A-II turbine models), and Piper/Cessna Turbine Conversions (ARC A-I C-210/C201). As confirmed by 2017 Airport traffic count data and the 2018 PLU FBO/Tenant Survey Questionnaire, turbine traffic (turboprop and jet) totals 984 annual operations; as consisting of ARC A = 462 operations, ARC B = 522 operations, ARC I = 418 operations, ARC II = 566 operations. Turbine aircraft are planned to continue exceeding 500 annual operations per year, as currently represented by the Cessna 441 Conquest II (turbine pressurized model).
Future Critical Aircraft: The future critical aircraft is a small/light business aircraft, representative of the Cessna Citation 510 Series (Mustang-2, CJ-1, CJ-2), an airplane currently operating at the Airport. Other representative light/small business jets include the Cessna 500 Series (B-II), Cirrus Vision SF50 (B-I), Eclipse 500/550 (B-I), Phenom 100 (B-II) and HondaJet (B-I). As confirmed by 2017 Airport traffic count data, business jets conduct 50 to 60 operations per year. Based on the 20-year aviation demand forecasts, the light/small business jet traffic could reasonably exceed 500 annual operations per year.
For future planning and design purposes, the Airport should accommodate a critical aircraft with an AAC approach speed less than 121 knots, an ADG aircraft wingspan up to 79 feet, and a tail height less than 30 feet; which corresponds with FAA category B-II aircraft design standards.
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EXHIBIT 2.6: CRITICAL AIRCRAFTS (EXISTING AND FUTURE)
Source: FAA Aircraft Database (January,2018)
2.7.5 SPECIALIZED AIRCRAFT ACTIVITIES The following is an overview of unique Airport user activity, not forecast in terms of activity levels, but taken into consideration regarding the potential for future demand.
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS-Drones) Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) aircraft are rapidly becoming a more mainstream aircraft platform supporting various civilian and military flight applications. Large retail companies are pursuing UAS for product deliveries. While future UAS aircraft may not require airfield facilities for delivery networks, there may be UAS applications which could involve other on-airport land use, such as a domicile for maintenance and training. As the UAS industry and regulations evolve, including advocating airspace compatibility, some aspects of UAS activity could be realized at the Airport. However, due to the uncertainty of future UAS industry and commercial applications, no UAS-specific activities have been projected or forecast for the Airport.
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Emergency Response – Base of Operations For Airport is situated in a favorable metropolitan and geographic location to provide a strategic transportation connection for emergency response, throughout Pierce County. The Airport is currently used as an aeronautical base for law enforcement, search and rescue, and has direct access with fire- fighting and other County services. As illustrated by Exhibit 2.7, the Pierce County Airport-Thun Field is designated as Tier III facility by the Washington Military Department, in planning for a Cascadia Subduction Zone Event. Since being event-driven, forecasts have not been prepared for potential emergency activity events.
EXHIBIT 2.7: AIRPORT EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Source: https://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/emergency-management/robert-ezelle-csz.pdf
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2.8 FORECAST SUMMARY
This section summarizes the preferred aviation demand forecasts, with respect to the subsequent Airport Master Plan tasks. Table 2.6 summarizes the preferred Master Plan forecasts.
TABLE 2.6: MASTER PLAN FORECAST SUMMARY MASTER PLAN FORECAST SUMMARY Existing Base Year Base Year Base Year Base Year Base Year Forecast Component Base Year + 1 Year + 5 Years + 10 Years + 15 Years + 20 Years (Annual Totals) 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 2037 Airline Passengers - Total ------Annual Aircraft Operations 106,300 110,300 112,800 119,700 127,700 137,200 Itinerant 65,240 67,695 69,229 73,464 78,374 84,204 Air Carrier ------Air Cargo ------Air Taxi 2,500 3,500 3,500 3,750 4,000 4,500 General Aviation 62,740 64,195 65,729 69,714 74,374 79,704 Military 0 0 0 0 0 0 Local 41,060 42,605 43,571 46,236 49,326 52,996 General Aviation 41,060 42,605 43,571 46,236 49,326 52,996 Military 0 0 0 0 0 0 Instrument Operations 19,134 19,854 20,304 20,304 20,304 20,304 Peak Hour Operations 63 64 66 71 75 80 Air Cargo (Freight+Mail - Lbs) ------Based Aircraft 253 258 265 277 292 312 Single Engine Piston 241 246 251 259 270 289 Multi Engine Piston 10 10 10 11 12 12 Turboprop 2 2 3 5 6 7 Jet Engine 0 0 0 0 1 1 Helicopter 0 0 1 2 3 3 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 GA Operations Per Based Aircraft 410 414 412 419 424 425 Note: Forecast values rounded, may not total. Note: Based Aircraft reflects 'FAA Counts'
Forecast Reasonableness:
The preferred aviation demand forecasts are a reasonable 20-year planning expectation. The forecasts anticipate Airport aeronautical growth and expanded aircraft utilization occurring under favorable general aviation industry and economic climate. To achieve sustainability, the forecasts assume the Airport will provide land and facilities (hangars) necessary to meet demand, and continue to capitalize on accommodating spillover demand from other surrounding public and private use airports.
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Historically, the demand for general aviation service has outpaced Airport facilities. Overall, the forecast levels are in-line with Airport demand as expressed by tenants, community growth profiles, and are commensurate with FAA TAF forecasts, including the surrounding FAA general aviation regional airports (Tacoma-TIW, Olympia-OLM, and Auburn-S50).
Summary major forecast events:
- Accommodate Airport hangar waiting list of 20 to 60 airplanes - Growth of flight training and education activities - Demand for greater higher performance aircraft utilization; including turbine aircraft
The 10 to 20-year forecast growth-rate projections are higher than the 1 to 10-year period because it will likely take several years to bring hangar facilities on line (plan, environmental/permit, design, finance, construct). Also, the 10 to 20-year step-up assumes the east side terminal area could start to accommodate facility development around the 5 to 10-year time period, again, based on a reasonable development schedule, also likely tied to runway/taxiway improvements. Also, as more forecast ‘business’ aircraft are based at PLU (again, as contingent upon hangar construction), these ‘business’ aircraft commonly operate at a higher utilization than recreational aircraft; meaning more hours flown and Airport annual operations.
Forecast Planning Activity Levels:
The preferred aviation forecasts are projected demand levels. The forecasts are used to evaluate the type, size, and location of capital improvements. This serves as the basis for Plan decision-making and recommendations, used to analyze facility requirements, to assess alternatives, and to prioritize project improvements.
Based on various circumstances, it should be noted that certain aspects of forecast demand may deviate from the projected timeline, or may not materialize as planned. Therefore, because actual year-to-year activity can deviate from forecast projections, the Airport should monitor the relationship between forecast demand and actual activity levels. As recommended by FAA Advisory Circular 150/5070-6B, the Airport should track planning activity levels, rather than specific years, to guide the thresholds for triggering Airport project improvements. This approach considers constrained and unconstrained forecasts, as a matter of “reviewing the operational factors and events implicit in the forecast to determine if differing assumptions regarding those factors have affected the forecast results”.
FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Comparison and Forecast Approval
The forecasts require review and approval by the FAA, as conducted per “FAA Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts” dated June 2008. Forecasts are considered consistent with the TAF if the forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the five-year forecast period, and 15 percent in the 10-year forecast period. The FAA bases primary considerations in forecast review and approval on forecasts using reasonable planning assumptions, current data, and appropriate forecast methods.
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Table 2.7 summarizes and compares the preferred Master Plan forecasts with the FAA TAF (dated January 2018). Each of the Master Plan forecast components are below the FAA TAF activity forecast or threshold levels, and otherwise within the specified TAF thresholds for FAA acceptance. The Master Plan forecasts, once approved by the FAA, are commonly accepted as the future FAA TAF forecast, and later used for environmental and financial planning purposes.
TABLE 2.7: COMPARISON OF MASTER PLAN AND FAA TAF FORECASTS FORECAST COMPARISON - MASTER PLAN AND FAA TAF Master Plan Forecast Year FAA TAF Airport/TAF (Preferred Component (Fiscal) (January, 2018) (% Difference) Forecast) Airline Passenger Enplanements Base Year (2017) 2017 0 -- 0.0% Base Year + 1 2018 0 -- 0.0% Base Year + 5 2022 0 -- 0.0% Base Year + 10 2027 0 -- 0.0% Base Year + 15 2032 0 -- 0.0% Base Year + 20 2037 0 -- 0.0% Commercial Aircraft Operations Base Year (2017) 2017 2,500 3,437 -27.3% Base Year + 1 2018 3,000 3,487 -14.0% Base Year + 5 2022 3,500 3,696 -5.3% Base Year + 10 2027 3,750 3,977 -5.7% Base Year + 15 2032 4,000 4,282 -6.6% Base Year + 20 2037 4,500 4,612 -2.4% Total Airport Aircraft Operations Base Year (2017) 2017 106,300 101,844 4.4% Base Year + 1 2018 110,300 103,724 6.3% Base Year + 5 2022 112,800 111,602 1.1% Base Year + 10 2027 119,700 122,307 -2.1% Base Year + 15 2032 127,700 134,054 -4.7% Base Year + 20 2037 137,200 146,950 -6.6% Total Based Aircraft Base Year (2017) 2017 253 227 11.5% Base Year + 1 2018 258 233 10.7% Base Year + 5 2022 265 262 1.1% Base Year + 10 2027 277 294 -5.8% Base Year + 15 2032 292 327 -10.7% Base Year + 20 2037 312 366 -14.8%
Note: FAA TAF published January 2018. Note: Based aircraft reflects 2018 FAA approved total of 253. Note: Forecast values rounded, may not total.
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WORKING PAPER ATTACHMENTS SUPPORTING MATERIAL (INFORMATION PROVIDED FOR FAA REVIEW PURPOSES)
#1: FORECAST DATA REFERENCES
#2: FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS (JANUARY 2018)
#3: FORECAST SCENARIOS – BASED AIRCRAFT AND OPERATIONS
#4: FAA TAF COMPARISONS
#5: PLU BASED AIRCRAFT (FAA DATABASE: AUGUST 2018):
#6: PLU TRAFFIC COUNT DATA (ACTUAL AND ADJUSTED):
#7: AIRPORT REGIONAL COMPARISONS
#8: PLU TURBINE AIRCRAFT SURVEY (OCTOBER 2018)
#9: FAA FORECAST CALCULATION SPREADSHEET
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#1: FORECAST DATA REFERENCES
FAA AVIATION SOURCES:
FAA Aerospace Forecasts * https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/
FAA Terminal Area Forecasts * http://taf.faa.gov/
FAA Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC) http://aspmhelp.faa.gov/index.php/TFMSC
FAA Review and Approval of FAA Forecasts (June 2008) https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/.../approval_local_forecasts_2008.pdf
Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=157
FAA Asset (GA Role and Service Area Characteristics) https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/ga_study/
INDUSTRY PUBLICATIONS:
General Aviation Manufacturing Association (GAMA) Factbook https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/statistical-databook-and-industry-outlook/
National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Factbook https://www.nbaa.org/business-aviation/fact-book/
OTHER:
Pierce County, WA https://www.co.pierce.wa.us/2699/Demographic-Information
US Census Data - Woods and Poole Economic, Inc. https://www.woodsandpoole.com/
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#2: FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS (JANUARY, 2018)
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#3: FORECAST SCENARIOS – BASED AIRCRAFT AND OPERATIONS 10-CANDIDATE FORECASTS CONSIDERED
425
375
HIGH 325 MEDIUM
275 LOW
BASED AIRCRAFT BASED AIRCRAFT 225
175
HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 125 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Historical FAA TAF FAA TAF FOR #1 FOR #2 FOR #3 FOR #4 (Indexed) FOR #5 FOR #6 FOR #7 FOR #8 FOR #9 FOR #10
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000 HIGH 130,000
120,000 MEDIUM
LOW 110,000
100,000
ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL 90,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 80,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical FAA FOR #1 FOR #2 FOR #3 TAF FAA TAF FOR #4 FOR #5 FOR #6 FOR #7 (Indexed) FOR #8 FOR #9 FOR #10 Linear (Historical)
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#3: FORECAST SCENARIOS – BASED AIRCRAFT AND OPERATIONS BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): SHOWS THE DETAILED AIRCRAFT TYPE BREAKOUT FOR THE LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH FORECAST SCENARIOS.
LOW LOW BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST - AIRCRAFT TYPE Single Single Twin Single Twin Light/Small Year Engine Rotorcraft Other TOTAL Engine Piston Turboprop Turboprop Cabin Jet Sport 2017 211 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 253 2018 211 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 254 2022 212 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 254 2027 213 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 255 2032 214 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 256 2037 214 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 257 2040 215 31 10 1 1 0 0 0 258
20-Year Change 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 20-Year % Average 70% 10% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 20-Year % Change 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% % CAGR 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
MEDIUM MEDIUM BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST - AIRCRAFT TYPE Single Single Twin Single Twin Light/Small Year Engine Rotorcraft Other TOTAL Engine Piston Turboprop Turboprop Cabin Jet Sport 2017 211 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 253 2018 215 31 10 1 1 0 0 0 258 2022 219 31 10 2 1 0 1 0 265 2027 226 33 11 3 2 0 2 0 277 2032 236 35 12 4 2 1 3 0 292 2037 252 37 12 4 3 1 3 0 312 2040 256 38 13 4 3 1 3 0 317
20-Year Change 36 6 2 3 2 1 3 0 54 20-Year % Average 69% 10% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 100% 20-Year % Change 16.9% 20.9% 20.9% 292.2% 194.2% 20.9% % CAGR 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 7.1% 5.5% 1.0%
HIGH HIGH BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST - AIRCRAFT TYPE Single Single Twin Single Twin Light/Small Year Engine Rotorcraft Other TOTAL Engine Piston Turboprop Turboprop Cabin Jet Sport 2017 211 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 253 2018 214 30 10 1 1 0 0 0 257 2022 235 34 11 2 1 0 0 1 284 2027 250 36 12 3 2 1 0 2 307 2032 263 39 13 4 3 2 0 3 327 2037 276 41 14 5 4 4 0 3 347 2040 286 43 14 5 4 4 0 3 359
20-Year Change 62 11 4 4 3 4 0 3 90 20-Year % Average 70% 10% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 100% 20-Year % Change 28.8% 35.0% 35.0% 400.0% 293.8% -- -- 35.0% % CAGR 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 8.4% 7.1% -- 1.5%
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#4: FAA TAF COMPARISONS – PREFERRED BASED AIRCRAFT AND AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS SHOWS THE PREFERRED FORECASTS RELATIVE TO THE FAA TAF, AND HIGH AND LOW TAF LIMITS
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
BASED AIRCRAFT BASED AIRCRAFT 225
200
175 HISTORICAL FORECAST PERIOD PERIOD 150 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical FAA TAF FAA TAF Medium(A) FAA TAF FAA TAF (Indexed) (Low Limits) (High Limits)
170,000
150,000
130,000
110,000
90,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL
HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 70,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Historical FAA High FAA TAF FAA TAF FAA TAF TAF Forecast (Low Limit) (High Limit) (Indexed)
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#5: PLU BASED AIRCRAFT (FAA DATABASE: AUGUST, 2018): OFFICIAL BASED AIRCRAFT COUNT SUBMITTED BY PIERCE COUNTY TO THE FAA
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#6: PLU TRAFFIC COUNT DATA (ACTUAL AND ADJUSTED): COUNT SUBMITTED BY PIERCE COUNTY TO THE FAA
nthly 0 8,858 asterPlan MasterPlan JUSTEDCOUNT PLAN MASTER - 42 2 28 0.05% 54 5 18-Month 18-MonthEquivalent # Equivalent % Total Total Actual Count Actual Average Monthly 12-Month 12-Month Annual Mo Cummulative Cummulative Over18-Months Over18-Months M ACTUAL COUNT CUMMULATIVE ACTUAL COUNT MONTHLY ACTUAL AVG. AD Day Time Operations Time Day Operations Time Night 84,456 3,122 4,692 173 56,304 2,081 96% 4% 102,935 3,745 8,578 312 Runway 17 Runway 35 Runway Single-PistonMulti-PistonSingle-TurbineMulti-TurbineJet Helicopter 16,591 27,198Piston- Total (Turboprop) Turbine - 85,410Total (Jet) Turbine - Total 922 1,218 1,511Helicopter- Total 178 222 4,745 400 508 68 10 11,061 86,628 18,132 42 12 508 22 56,940 28 38% 4,813 62% 812 2 97.52% 119 28 148 267 40,275 57,752 1.39% 66,025 339 0.20% 103,676 0.25% 28 0.46% 98.92% 3,356 339 5,502 0.58% 8,640 1,450 240 0.05% 299 0.58% 105,126 540 121 583 20 8,761 25 54 583 45 49 5 49 Total OperationsTotal (Flights) 17+35 Runway 87,578 43,789 4,865 2,433 58,385 29,193 100.0% 100.0% 106,300 106,30 8,858 Summary TrafficCount PLU Model Aircraft Type Aircraft 87,578 4,865 87,578 58,385 4,865 100.0% 58,385 106,300 100.0% 8,858 106,300 8,859
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#6: PLU TRAFFIC COUNT DATA (ACTUAL AND ADJUSTED): ADJUSTED PLU TRAFFIC COUNT DATA (USED FOR MASTER PLAN):
ADJUSTED COUNT - MASTER PLAN Annual Monthly Percent of Total Total Annual PLU Traffic Count Summary Master Plan Master Plan Total
106,300 8,858 100.4% Total Operations 102,935 8,578 97% Day Time Operations 3,745 312 4% Night Time Operations
106,300 8,858 100.0% Runway 17+35 (Flights) 40,275 3,356 38% Runway 17 66,025 5,502 62% Runway 35
106,300 8,858 100.0% Aircraft Model 103,676 8,640 97.53% Single-Piston 1,450 121 1.36% Multi-Piston 240 20 0.23% Single-Turbine 299 25 0.28% Multi-Turbine 54 5 0.05% Jet 583 49 0.55% Helicopter
106,300 8,859 100.0% Aircraft Type 105,126 8,761 98.90% Total - Piston 540 45 0.51% Total - Turbine (Turboprop) 54 5 0.05% Total - Turbine (Jet) 583 49 0.55% Total - Helicopter
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#7: AIRPORT COMPARISONS FAA TAF: AIRPORT REGIONAL COMPARISONS (GA AIRPORTS: PLU, TIW, OLY, S50)
Annual Aircraft Operations (FAA TAF) Year PLU TIW OLM S50 Total % PLU Total 2000 97,579 100,735 81,457 141,000 420,771 23.2% 2010 100,000 52,621 55,044 164,539 372,204 26.9% 2015 100,000 68,199 61,725 164,539 394,463 25.4% 2017 103,723 72,175 40,937 169,340 386,175 26.9% 2037 149,675 75,438 42,196 226,155 493,464 30.3% 2017 to 2037 ∆ 45,952 3,263 1,259 56,815 107,289 3.47% Note: Airports = Tacoma Narrows (TIW), Olympia (OLM), Auburn (S50), Thun Field (PLU)
Based Aircraft (FAA TAF) Year PLU TIW OLM S50 Total % PLU Total 2000 229 200 176 230 835 27.4% 2010 195 156 147 241 739 26.4% 2015 221 109 140 277 747 29.6% 2017 234 109 143 292 778 30.1% 2037 373 109 168 503 1153 32.4% 2017 to 2037 ∆ 139 0 25 211 375 2.27%
Note: Airports = Tacoma Narrows (TIW), Olympia (OLM), Auburn (S50), Thun Field (PLU)
Aircraft Operations 250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
PLU TIW OLM S50
Based Aircraft
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
PLU TIW OLM S50
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#7: AIRPORT COMPARISONS FAA TAF: BASED AIRCRAFT COMPARISONS (GA AIRPORTS: PLU, TIW, OLY, S50)
BASED AIRCRAFT
PLU / PLU WA Statewide PLU / WA Vicinity Airports Year Vicinity Airport Total (FAA TAF) % Share (PLU,TIW,OLM,S50) % Share 2000 229 5,872 3.90% 835 27.4% 2001 229 6,273 3.65% 835 27.4% 2002 229 6,418 3.57% 896 25.6% 2003 236 6,475 3.64% 916 25.8% 2004 231 6,467 3.57% 876 26.4% 2005 231 6,631 3.48% 876 26.4% 2006 233 6,845 3.40% 877 26.6% 2007 233 7,121 3.27% 896 26.0% 2008 195 6,048 3.22% 769 25.4% 2009 195 6,148 3.17% 769 25.4% 2010 195 5,963 3.27% 739 26.4% 2011 184 5,637 3.26% 678 27.1% 2012 183 5,529 3.31% 658 27.8% 2013 183 5,651 3.24% 668 27.4% 2014 182 5,587 3.26% 655 27.8% 2015 221 5,554 3.98% 747 29.6% 2016 227 5,614 4.04% 761 29.8% 2017 260 5,672 4.58% 778 33.4% AVG 215 6,084 3.55% 791 27.3% 2018 240 5,736 4.18% 792 30.3% 2019 247 5,796 4.26% 810 30.5% 2020 255 5,867 4.35% 828 30.8% 2021 261 5,943 4.39% 844 30.9% 2022 269 6,005 4.48% 863 31.2% 2023 277 6,076 4.56% 881 31.4% 2024 283 6,144 4.61% 899 31.5% 2025 289 6,211 4.65% 916 31.6% 2026 295 6,275 4.70% 933 31.6% 2027 301 6,339 4.75% 950 31.7% 2028 307 6,406 4.79% 969 31.7% 2029 313 6,470 4.84% 988 31.7% 2030 320 6,538 4.89% 1,008 31.7% 2031 327 6,606 4.95% 1,028 31.8% 2032 334 6,674 5.00% 1,048 31.9% 2033 341 6,743 5.06% 1,068 31.9% 2034 349 6,815 5.12% 1,089 32.0% 2035 357 6,887 5.18% 1,110 32.2% 2036 365 6,961 5.24% 1,131 32.3% 2037 373 7,037 5.30% 1,153 32.4% ∆ / CAGR 2.2% 1,301 1.12% 361 2.0% Note: Vicinity Airports = Tacoma Narrows (TIW), Olympia (OLM), Auburn (S50), Thun Field (PLU) Source: FAA TAF, Obtained September, 2017.
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#7: AIRPORT COMPARISONS FAA TAF: AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS COMPARISONS (GA AIRPORTS: PLU, TIW, OLY, S50)
AIRPORT OPERATIONS PLU / PLU WA Statewide PLU / WA Vicinity Airports Year Vicinity Airport Total (FAA TAF) % Share (PLU,TIW,OLM,S50) % Share 2000 97,579 3,610,414 2.70% 420,771 23.19% 2001 99,608 3,702,479 2.69% 422,139 23.60%
2002 103,953 3,551,743 2.93% 417,178 24.92% 2003 108,299 3,509,849 3.09% 423,911 25.55%
2004 112,522 3,451,552 3.26% 440,162 25.56% 2005 116,864 3,427,252 3.41% 453,168 25.79% 2006 100,000 3,330,332 3.00% 405,428 24.67%
2007 102,148 3,366,408 3.03% 421,211 24.25% 2008 100,000 3,441,864 2.91% 413,990 24.16% 2009 100,000 3,273,329 3.05% 386,996 25.84%
2010 100,000 3,178,399 3.15% 372,204 26.87% 2011 100,000 3,108,882 3.22% 365,701 27.34% 2012 100,000 3,031,833 3.30% 373,501 26.77%
2013 100,000 2,969,756 3.37% 367,978 27.18% 2014 100,000 2,886,830 3.46% 375,382 26.64%
2015 100,000 2,935,112 3.41% 394,463 25.35% 2016 101,844 2,987,177 3.41% 382,948 26.59% 2017 106,300 3,036,617 3.50% 386,175 27.53%
AVG 102,729 3,266,657 3.16% 401,295 25.65%
2018 105,639 3,073,071 3.44% 390,765 27.03% 2019 107,589 3,109,217 3.46% 395,426 27.21% 2020 109,577 3,145,698 3.48% 400,163 27.38% 2021 111,601 3,180,672 3.51% 404,976 27.56% 2022 113,664 3,215,872 3.53% 409,868 27.73% 2023 115,765 3,251,316 3.56% 414,837 27.91% 2024 117,906 3,286,654 3.59% 419,887 28.08% 2025 120,086 3,322,679 3.61% 425,018 28.25% 2026 122,307 3,359,926 3.64% 430,232 28.43% 2027 124,570 3,397,750 3.67% 435,530 28.60% 2028 126,874 3,435,974 3.69% 440,912 28.78% 2029 129,222 3,475,043 3.72% 446,382 28.95% 2030 131,615 3,514,687 3.74% 451,940 29.12% 2031 134,053 3,554,806 3.77% 457,590 29.30% 2032 136,538 3,595,575 3.80% 463,331 29.47% 2033 139,069 3,637,019 3.82% 469,164 29.64% 2034 141,646 3,679,507 3.85% 475,091 29.81% 2035 144,273 3,723,153 3.88% 481,114 29.99% 2036 146,949 3,767,372 3.90% 487,240 30.16% 2037 149,675 3,812,101 3.93% 493,464 30.33% ∆ / CAGR 1.8% 739,030 0.49% 102,699 3.30% Note: Vicinity Airports = Tacoma Narrows (TIW), Olympia (OLM), Auburn (S50), Thun Field (PLU) Source: FAA TAF, Obtained September, 2017.
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#7: AIRPORT COMPARISONS FAA TAF: AIRPORT COMPARISONS (8 FAA GA ‘REGIONAL’ AIRPORTS)
4 GA AIRPORTS IN SURROUNDING REGION FAA Regional FAA Regional FAA Regional FAA Regional REGION Auburn (S50) Tacoma Narrows (TIW) Olympia (OLM) Thun Field (PLU) 4-Total 4-Average Total Based 299 138 177 260 874 218.5 Based Multi 17 6 12 11 46 11.5 % Based Multi 6% 4% 7% 4% 21% 5.3% Based Multi (Turbine - Est) 6.8 2.4 4.8 1 15 3.75 % Based Turbine 2.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.4% 7% 1.8% Based Jets 0 6 4 0 10 2.5 % Based Jets 0% 4% 2% 0% 7% 1.7%
4 GA AIRPORTS IN SURROUNDING SEATTL / PUGET SOUND REGION FAA Regional FAA Regional FAA Regional FAA Regional REGION Renton Arlington Bremerton Paine 4-Total 4-Average Total Based 268 385 175 533 2,235 340 Based Multi 13 19 10 43 131 21 % Based Multi 5% 5% 6% 8% -- 5.9% Based Multi (Turbine - Est) 5.2 7.6 4 17.2 49 9 % Based Turbine 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 3.2% -- 2.4% Based Jets 4 11 3 11 39 7 % Based Jets 1.5% 2.9% 1.7% 2.1% -- 2.0%
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#8: PLU TURBINE AIRCRAFT SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY RESULTS (OCTOBER 2018)
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#8: PLU TURBINE AIRCRAFT SURVEY PLU TURBINE AIRCRAFT QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY RESULTS (OCTOBER 2018)
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#9: FAA FORECAST CALCULATION SPREADSHEET
FAA Template for Summarizing and Documenting Airport Planning Forecasts AIRPORT NAME: PLU A. Forecast Levels and Growth Rates Average Annual Compound Growth Rates Specify base year: 2017
Base Yr. Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Base Yr. to Base Yr. to Base Yr. to Base Yr. to Level 1yr. 5yrs. 10yrs. 15yrs. +1 +5 +10 +15 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032 2018 2022 2027 2032
Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 0 0 0 0 0 ------Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 ------TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 ------
Operations Itinerant 65,240 67,695 69,229 73,464 78,374 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Air carrier 0 0 0 0 0 ------Commuter/air taxi 0 0 0 0 0 ------Total Commercial Operations 2,500 3,500 3,500 3,750 4,000 40.0% 7.0% 4.1% 3.2% General aviation 62,740 64,195 65,729 69,714 74,374 2.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% Military 0 0 0 0 0 ------Local 41,060 42,605 43,571 46,236 49,326 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% General aviation 41,060 42,605 43,571 46,236 49,326 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Military 0 0 0 0 0 ------TOTAL OPERATIONS 106,300 110,300 112,800 119,700 127,700 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Instrument Operations 19,134 19,854 20,304 20,304 20,304 3.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% Peak Hour Operations 63 65 66 71 75 3.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% Cargo/mail 0 0 0 0 0 ------
Based Aircraft Single Engine (Nonjet) 241 246 251 259 270 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% Multi Engine (Nonjet) 12 12 13 16 18 0.0% 1.6% 2.9% 2.7% Jet Engine 0 0 0 0 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Helicopter 0 0 1 2 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TOTAL BASED AIRCRAFT 253 258 265 277 292 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
B. Operational Factors Base Yr. Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Base Yr. + Level 1yr. 5yrs. 10yrs. 15yrs. 2017 2018 2022 2027 2032
Average aircraft size (seats) Air carrier 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commuter 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Average enplaning load factor Air carrier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commuter 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GA operations per based aircraft 410 414 412 419 424
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