Then... ENIAC 1946 (”5kHz”) The Future is not 18 000 radiorör sladdprogrammerad what it used to be... ”5 KHz”
Erik Hagersten Professor i Datorarkitektur Uppsala Universitet
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2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik HagerstenENIAC| user.it.uu.se/~eh
“Recently” APZ 212, 1983
Then (in Sweden) Ericsson’s Supercomputer (“5 MHz”)
BARK (~1950) 8 000 relays, 80 km cables
BESK (~1953) 2 400 vac. tubes ”20 kHz” (world record) AVDARK AVDARK
2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh
APZ 212 65 years of “improvements” marketing brochure quotes: Speed ”Very compact” 6 times the performance Size 1/6:th the size Price 1/5 the power consumption ”A breakthrough in computer science” Price/performance ”Why more CPU power?” Reliability ”All the power needed for future development” Predictability ”…800,000 BHCA, should that ever be needed” Energy ”SPC computer science at its most elegance” ”Using 64 kbit memory chips” Safety ”1500W power consumption Usability….
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2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh ”Moore’s Law” Exponentiell utveckling Pop: Double performance every 18-24th month Example: Doubling every 2nd year Performance How long does it it take for 1000x improvement? [log] Multicore Example: Doubling every 18th month 1000 How long does it it take for 1000x improvement?
Single-core Log 100 scale 1000
100 10 10
1 1 time ? Linear scale AVDARK Year AVDARK
2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se2006 Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh
Ray Kurzweil pictures Linear scale 1940 2017 www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/WorldHealthCongress/ (2x performance every 18th month)
Doubling every 18th month since 1940
4,E+15
3,E+15
3,E+15
2,E+15 Performance 2,E+15
1,E+15
5,E+14
0,E+00 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10
Year
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2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh
Ray Kurzweil pictures Ray Kurzweil pictures www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/WorldHealthCongress/ www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/WorldHealthCongress/
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2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh Ray Kurzweil pictures Exponentiell utveckling: www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/WorldHealthCongress/ Doublerings/halverings-tider (according to Kurzweil)
Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 years Average Transistor Price 1.6 years Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years
Log scale 1000 100
10
1 AVDARK time AVDARK
2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh 2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh
HiPEAC Roadmap -- High Performance Embedded Architecture and Compilers
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2011 Dept of Information Technology| www.it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/~eh