Inside Baseball New.Pptx
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Class 1 Construction of White Sox Park and other concrete ballparks in the second decade of the 20th century. Class 2 Statistical Analysis of trades Class 3 Address the decline in triples and inside the park home runs Class 4 Classic Pitching duels featuring the historic 1912 match-up between “Smokey Joe” Wood and Walter Johnson Inside Baseball Sarita and Mark Levinthal WALLA Spring 2018 Sarita and Mark Levinthal WALLA Spring 2018 THE EVOLUTION OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FIELDS Ballparks prior to 1910 • Ballparks without stands(1880-1900) • New ballparks for AL – Outfield enclosed – On trolley lines – Near population centers • Wooden stands fire hazard • Newer generation of fields – Eliminate fire hazards – New building materals Comiskey Park 1912 “Shoeless” Joe Jackson Comiskey Park Construction Zachary Taylor Davis Frank Lloyd Wright of ballparks Worked for Osborn Architectural firm Designed and built White Sox Park Later Comiskey Park Toured other ballparks with Ed Walsh Designed a pitcher’s park Both corners 362 feet Center field 400 feet Used for other events Chicago Cardinals (NFL) Negro League East-West Series (1933-53) Responsible for Brighman Field Later Wrigley Field Old and New Comiskey Park(US Cellular Field) Increase Seating Capacity Luxury boxes Wear and tear Naming Rights Guarenteed Rate Field) New Club Houses Elimination of Poles Newest Ballparks • Public funding of stadiums – Dodger stadium and Candlestick Park • Multipurpose stadiums • Retroballparks • Moveable roofs – Astrodome Tropicana Field Sarita and Mark Levinthal WALLA Spring 2018 THE EVALUATION OF TRADES: A HISTORICAL VIEW Bill James evaluates Trades Players Team A Players Team B Lou Brock (12) Cubs Ernie Broglio (2) Cardinals Frank Robinson (16,13,8,14,14=65) Milt Pappas (5,8,0,5,3=21) ; D. Simpson(1,0,2 =3); J. Baldschun (0) Gaylord Perry +F. Duffy (92) Sam McDowell (5) Nolan Ryan (83) Angels Jim Fregosi ( 4) Mets Ken Singleton +T. Foli +M. Jorgenson Rusty Staub (48) Expos (126) Mets Amos Otis (83) Mets Joe Foy (6) Royals Randy Hundley + B. Hands (91) Lindy McDaniel +D. Landrum (19) Cardunals Cubs Final Records 1964 Cubs and Cardinals Team Year wins losses Pct Place GB Player Obtain ed St Louis 93 69 0.574 Pennan - Brock t Chicago 76 86 0.469 9th 17 Broglio Bill James Win-Shares Evaluate Players • Win-share allocation estimates contribution to – Team Win-share = 3 x games won – Players Pitching, Hitting and Defense considered – Statistics adjusted for park, league and era – Offense shares 48%, Defense divided btw pitchers and fielding • Pitching typically awarded 35% Fielding 17% Runs Created • Estimating a player’s contribution to a team’s runs – Based on offensive statistics • Conceptual Framework Runs Created= On-base factor x Advancement Factor Opportunity factor (Plate Appearences • On Base factor- ( H x TB,BB, HBP)- (GIDP,CS) • Advancement Fator- (SH,SF, SB) Pitching Statistics • Pitcher win-share computed from Runs saved by pitcher • Pitching runs saved uses: – Adjusted pitching runs={innings pitched/9] x [League ERA-ERA] – WHIP=(Hits+ Walks/innings pitched Defensive Runs Saved – Following metrics are combined • Plus/Minus runs saved • GDP runs saved • Bunt runs saved • Catcher Stolen base run saved • Pitcher Stolen base runs saved • Adjusted Earned runs saved – catchers calling pitches and framing strikes • OF arm runs saved • Good plays and misplay runs saved – Runs saved by by heads-upplays Frazee Finances • Owners typically sold off players – Connie Mack • Frazee theatrical agent, producer and director – Bought Red Sox 1916 $500,000, Ban Johnson unhappy • Red Sox more expensive than theatre business 1917-23 – Red Sox $101,000; Theatre $93,000 • Debt for Fenway Construction remained – Debt $300,000 • “No,No Nanette” big money maker (1923) Sarita and Mark Levinthal WALLA Spring 2018 WHY INSIDE THE PARK HOME RUNS AND TRIPLES HAVE DECLINED Slugging History Triples -19 year totals 25000 20000 15000 10000 AL NL 5000 0 Inside the Park Home Runs Career Leaders Lg Name Team(s) Data Detroit 46 AL Ty Cobb 46 Philadelphia 0 Louisville 3 Pittsburg 34 NL Tommy Leach 48 Chicago 11 Cincinnati 0 New York [NL] 1 Cleveland [NL] 23 ML Jesse Burkett St. Louis [NL] 19 55 St. Louis [AL] 8 Boston [AL] 4 Single Season Inside Park HR Record League Name Team Data AL Ty Cobb Detroit 9 1909 NL Sam Crawford Cincinnati 12 1901 Two Inside Park HR in one game • Two IP HR/game in NL – 1882-1919 27 – 1920-present 7 • Two IPHR/game AL – 1902-1919 12 – 1920-present 5 • Major League record – 3 IPHR in a game – Tom McCreery 1897 Decline of IPHR by Year Year IPHR Total HR %IPHR Crosley Field by Year 1901 159 455 34% Year # IPHR 1915 96 385 24 % 1901 50 1930 110 1565 7% 1909 20 1950 73 2073 3% 1921 7 1966 30 2743 1% 1955 0 1979 31 3433 0.9% Players Adept at IPHR • Fast runners not sluggers – Kiki Cuyler (1924) 26 triples + 8 IPHR – Ty Cobb, Tommy Leach, Rabbit Maranville • Modern IPHR hitters-Power + Speed – Willie Wilson, Willie Mays,Muckey Mantle Park Effects • Braves Field 8/1915-1927 – Right-Center 525 feet – 7 HR and 209 IPHR • Forbes Field (1909-1970) – Few HR manyIPHR – Pirates career leaders in IPHR • T. Leach,H.Wagner,O.Wilson,M. Carey,P. Traynor,K.Cuyler,P. Waner, A. Vaughn • Griffith Stadium and the Polo Grounds Sarita and Mark Levinthal WALLA Spring 2018 CLASSIC PITCHING DUELS Walter Johnson WAR 165.6 WINS 417 LOSES 279 ERA 2.17 GAMES 802 GAMES S 666 SAVES 34 IP 5914.1 SO 3509 WHIP 1.061 Howard “Smoky Joe” Wood WAR 40.3 WINS 117 LOSES 52 ERA 2.03 GAMES 225 GAMES S 158 SAVED 10 IP 1434.1 SO 989 WHIP 1.087 Wood-Johnson 9/6/1912 • Background – Johnson 16 win – Marquard 19 win – Wood streak at 13 • The Game – Early rallies failed – Lone run with 2 out • The Aftermath – Wood wins 16 – Wood overcomes injuries Fenway Park 1912 Juan Marichal WAR 63.1 IP 243 WINS 142 LOSES 142 ERA 2.89 GAMES 471 GS 457 SV 2 IP 3507 SO 2303 WHIP 1.101 Warren Spahn WAR 100.2 WINS 363 LOSES 245 ERA 3.08 GAMES 750 GAMES S 655 SAVES 28 IP 5343.2 SO 2583 WHIP 1.195 Marichal outduels Spahn 7/2/63 • Background – Apr.loss Marichal (25) to Spahn (42) – Spahn (11-3) Marichal (12-3) on 7/2 • The Game – Braves threaten in 4th • Aaron leads off with line shot to left • Mays throws out Larkin at the plate – Scoreless for 1516th ½ innings • Mays HR won it in Pitching Duels of Note 10/2/1908- Addie Joss 1-0 over Cannonball Ed Walsh 5/2/1917 Reds Fred Toney and Cubs “Hippo” Vaughn no-hitters for 9 Jim Thorpe wins game with infield single 5/1/1920 Boson Braves 1 Brooklyn Robins 1 Leon Cadore and Joe Oescherger pitch complete games 7/2/1933 Hubbell wins in 18th 1-0 Tex Carlton pitches 16 scoreless for no decesion Pitching Duels of Note • 5/26/1959Harvey Hadddix pitches 12 perfect innings and losses – Lou Burdette complete game shutout • 9/9/1965 Koufax pitches perfect game to beat Cubs, 1-0 • 8/21/1972 Phil Niekro beats Steve Carlton 2-1 in 11 innings • 5/28/2000 Pedro Martinez beat Roger Clemens 2-0 at Yankee Stadium .