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Preventing the Next Financial Crisis Lessons for a New Framework of Financial Market Stabilization

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Preventing the Next Financial Crisis Lessons for a New Framework of Financial Market Stabilization The Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics Preventing the Next Financial Crisis Lessons for a New Framework of Financial Market Stabilization A research symposium December 10–11, 2008 The Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics 1 Symposium Participants (In order of symposium agenda) Bruce Kogut Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Professor of Leadership and Ethics; Director, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics Columbia Business School John Coffee Adolf A. Berle Professor of Law Columbia Law School Glenn Hubbard Dean; Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics Columbia Business School Wei Jiang Sidney Taurel Associate Professor of Business Patrick Bolton Columbia Business School Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business Columbia Business School David Skeel S. Samuel Arsht Professor of Corporate Law Markus Brunnermeier University of Pennsylvania Law School Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics Princeton University Stephan Meier Assistant Professor of Management Columbia Business School Michelle White Professor of Economics Charles Calomiris University of California, San Diego Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Columbia Business School Chris Mayer Senior Vice Dean; Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate Katharina Pistor Columbia Business School Michael I. Sovern Professor of Law Columbia Law School Pierre Collin-Dufresne Carson Family Professor of Business Jean-Charles Rochet Columbia Business School Professor of Mathematics and Economics Toulouse School of Economics Til Schuermann Vice President, Financial Intermediation Function Erik Berglof Federal Reserve Bank of New York Chief Economist and Special Adviser to the President European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bengt Holmström Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics Howard Rosenthal Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor of Politics, New York University; Roger Williams Straus Professor Emeritus of Social Sciences Suresh Sundaresan Princeton University Chase Manhattan Bank Foundation Professor of Financial Institutions Matthew Bishop Columbia Business School Chief Business Writer/U.S. Business Editor The Economist Tano Santos Franklin Pitcher Johnson Jr. Professor of Finance and Chrystia Freeland U.S. Managing Editor Economics The Financial Times Columbia Business School Floyd Norris MBA ’83 Paul Glasserman Chief Financial Correspondent Jack R. Anderson Professor of Business The New York Times Columbia Business School Acknowledgements Frederic Mishkin Rapporteur: Mark Hunter, Adjunct Professor, INSEAD Alfred Lerner Professor of Banking and Financial Institutions Photography by Leslye Smith Columbia Business School Design by Carolyn Tharp Preventing the Next Financial Crisis Symposium Introduction Patrick Bolton Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business Bruce Kogut Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Professor of Leadership and Ethics and Director of the Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics Tano Santos Franklin Pitcher Johnson Jr. Professor of Finance and Economics The year 2008 was a descent from worry to panic, an stalemate is the absence of a persuasive theory of the economic freefall that has continued through the early crisis and its resolution. The debate over the financial months of 2009. It is easy to observe that only in the crisis reflects this absence: voices speak in favor of the years ahead will we have gained a true understanding of efficacy of monetary policy, while in the wider economic the causes and the errors and the missed opportunities community many denounce its efficacy; voices argue of economic policy. Keynes’s General Theory, it is the merits of personal and corporate bankruptcy, pointed out, did not appear until February 1936, well while others favor government intervention in private into the Great Depression years, and the debate over contracts; some voices believe it is not too late to act the monetary and fiscal roots of that pivotal economic on the triggering cause of the crisis, namely, housing episode of the 20th century did not commence fully until prices and underwater mortgages, while others doubt the 1970s. the prospect of a rapid rebound in real estate prices and caution against the excessive absorption of liability onto Clearly though, the world will not wait that long to act the public balance sheet; and finally, voices call for limits this time—even if there are voices who are skeptical on compensation, while others fail to understand how about the value of vigorous policies. If academics are governments can constrain private contracts—unless to help allay the worse possible outcomes, we have no through fostering better corporate governance. better choice but to convene the best talent in this area and to propose and debate the important questions that This lack of agreement continues to plague the debate must be addressed if we are to exit soon from economic over the major decisions that must be made. As the crisis. This was the raison d’etre behind the one-day Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) and Term meeting, held at Columbia University on December 11, Asset-Balanced Loan Facility (TALF) programs prove 2008. insufficient to meet the worsening crisis, the debate has moved to questions of nationalization of the banks and/ The event, organized under the auspices of the or the assumption of their so-called toxic assets. The Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership public discourse condemns such policies as socialism in and Ethics, addressed three principal questions: why the context of the broader economic agenda proposed a financial crisis, what should be done to get out of it by President Obama’s administration. and what should be done in the future to avoid another crisis? Behind these positive questions, there is a This wider economic agenda is secondary to the normative dimension as well: do policies favor the bank debate over what to do to end the financial crisis, for shareholders over the foreclosed house owner, the jobs the elements of the solution are clearly understood, as in the financial sector over the jobs in the manufacturing this report will make clear. The fundamental problem is sector, the responsible consumer over the highly lodged in a circular trap—much like the famed “liquidity leveraged one? In any crisis, the line between the trap” central to Keynes’s analysis: for the financial crisis normative and the positive blurs, as the public debate to end, the erosion of value of asset prices must not over these issues becomes the constraint on the feasible only end as well, but also be reversed; however, for this policy alternatives. reversal to occur, there must be a belief that the crisis is coming to an end. Thus, the discussion in this report This blurring is far more evident now in March 2009 speaks frequently to the challenges of the revelation of than during last year, as the crisis consumes more of the true value—though it is understood that such value is economy and the policy costs blossom toward several driven by the anticipation that the economy will improve. trillion dollars. The financial markets remain fragile, Somehow, belief in better outcomes is a prerequisite to and consumer confidence is low. Many deplore that the disposition of bad assets. the debate has moved away from a body of technical solutions toward ideological battles. A key step toward the resolution of the crisis is the restoration of confidence in the capability of government However regrettable this evolution toward ideological to act credibly (and wisely) in its interventions. This claim conflict may seem, a principal cause of the current appears contradictory to many: markets will recover The Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics 1 by government intervention. But such a contradiction is not only relevant to the solution of this crisis, but also evaporates if the government can also commit itself to integral to the solution. While much has changed in a few interventions that are seen as temporary, not permanent. months, and much more will change, the moment to state the principles of prudent regulation and the reformation For such commitments to be made, the U.S. government, of the architecture of national and global financial at least, should start now to communicate its vision of regulation is now. the future of financial market regulation. Any solution to this crisis will require the willingness of some actors We would like to thank Carolyn Tharp for her assistance to bear risk in the hope of a proper reward. It is clear in organizing the conference and for her remarkable that many previous avenues of reward will be under contribution to the design and layout of the brochure; to regulation, if not prohibited; these include the trading Sandra Navalli, the codirector of the Bernstein Center, of highly levered assets and derivatives in over-the- for her administration and intellectual inspiration to the counter markets. The caps on compensation will lower conference; and to Mark Hunter, who having written such the attractiveness to participate in the purchase of books that include an account of the National Front and opaque and toxic assets. While the public discourse is Le Pen in France, found the world of financial crisis to be rightfully outraged by excessive compensation for bad a challenge that he was more than capable of addressing performance, there is no exit from a crisis when risk as the writer of this brochure. And finally, we would like without reward
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