Democratic Republic of the Congo Insight and Key Trends by the World Food Programme (WFP) | 26 August 2021

HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends By the World Food Programme (WFP) | 26 August 2021

FOOD INSECURITY AT A GLANCE

18.5M M 26.2M Chronic hunger 105.9 Acute hunger Population (undernourishment) (WFP D.R. Congo, 2021) IPC Phase 3+ (SOFI Report, 2021)1 (IPC, Aug 2021 - Dec 2021)2

The HungerMapLIVE tracks core indicators of acute hunger in near real-time.

Acute hunger is measured by key indicators such as household food consumption, livelihood behaviors, child nutritional status, mortality, access to clean drinking water and other contextual factors. The HungerMapLIVE primarily tracks trends on household food consumption, consumption-based coping and livelihood changes to track multiple aspects of food insecurity. As these are outcome level 1 indicators in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifcation (IPC) Framework, they can provide early indications of potential shifts in acute food insecurity.

Insufcient food consumption (HungerMapLIVE data)3 39.8M → 42.2M As of 28 May 2021 As of 26 August 2021

Crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies (HungerMapLIVE data)3 53.9M → 45.4M As of 28 May 2021 As of 26 August 2021

Methodology Note: The HungerMapLIVE includes data from two sources: (1) WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring systems, which remotely collect thousands of data daily through live calls conducted by call centres around the world; and (2) machine learning-based predictive models. Therefore, to note this diferentiation, this report indicates whether a region’s data is based on WFP’s near real-time monitoring systems (marked ‘ACTUAL’) or predictive models (marked ‘PREDICTED’).

1 Chronic hunger (undernourishment) is defned by people not able to meet long-term food consumption requirements. Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2021. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. 2 Source: IPC/CH analysis (ipcinfo.org) 3 Source: WFP HungerMap LIVE analysis, updated daily. Current food security outlook There are 13 regions considered High Risk or Moderate Risk and Deteriorating in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Nord-Ubangi Bas-Uele Haut-Uele Sud-Ubangi Mongala

Ituri

Tshopo Equateur

Tshuapa Nord-Kivu

Maï-Ndombe

Market Sud-Kivu (≥ 40% prevalence Sankuru access challenges) Maniema

Vegetation Kinshasa (< 80% vegetation Kwilu anomaly) Kongo-Central Lomami Kasaï Kasaï-Oriental Tanganyika Kasaï-Central Kwango

Haut-Lomami

Haut-Katanga Lualaba

The HungerMapLIVE divides regions into various tiers of risk based on: the prevalence of insufcient food consumption and the prevalence of households utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies, as well as the change in these prevalences from 90 days ago (28 May 2021) until now (26 August 2021). Regions are divided into these tiers based on the following criteria:

Tier 1: High Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with Tier 2: High Risk and Stable. Regions with more than Tier 3: Moderate Risk and Deteriorating. Regions Tier 4: Moderate Risk and Stable. Regions with less more than 40% prevalence for the average of the 40% prevalence for the average of the above two with less than 40% prevalence for the average of than 40% prevalence for the average of the above above two indicators AND signifcant deterioration indicators AND no signifcant deterioration the above two indicators AND signifcant two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 observed for the average of both indicators from 90 deterioration observed for the average of both observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. days ago. indicators from 90 days ago. days ago.

Regions marked for deterioration for these metrics must satisfy one of the following conditions: (1) >40% prevalence: 15% increase, (2) 20-40% prevalence: 20% increase, (3) <20% prevalence: 25% increase. HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 26 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption

Currently, the regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption, in order of severity, are: Kasaï-Central* ACTUAL, Kasaï* ACTUAL, Maniema* ACTUAL, Kasaï-Oriental* ACTUAL, Lomami* ACTUAL, Sankuru* ACTUAL, Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL, Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL, Equateur* ACTUAL, Sud- Ubangi* ACTUAL, Tshuapa* ACTUAL, Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL.

These regions account for 60% of the total number of people with insufcient food consumption in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 25.2M people, increasing by 3.09M (14%) compared to 90 days ago.

PREVALENCE OF INSUFFICIENT FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Kasaï- 71% 4.94M 3.49M Central* ACTUAL Kasaï* ACTUAL 71% 3.94M 2.79M

Maniema* ACTUAL 59% 2.72M 1.60M

Kasaï- 53% 5.60M 2.94M Oriental* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL 53% 4.13M 2.17M

Sankuru* ACTUAL 53% 2.12M 1.11M

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 51% 7.34M 3.71M

Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL 37% 10.7M 4.01M

Equateur* ACTUAL 36% 2.52M 918k

Sud- 36% 2.96M 1.08M Ubangi* ACTUAL Tshuapa* ACTUAL 36% 2.18M 795k

Nord- 36% 1.63M 593k Ubangi* ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of insufcient food consumption.

Maniema* ACTUAL Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL Kinshasa* ACTUAL Kasaï- Lomami* ACTUAL Sankuru* ACTUAL 42% → 59% 42% → 51% 24% → 28% Oriental* ACTUAL 45% → 53% 45% → 53% 45% → 53%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL Kasaï- Kasaï* ACTUAL Tanganyika* ACTUAL Lualaba* ACTUAL Haut- 33% → 37% Central* ACTUAL 63% → 71% 25% → 26% 25% → 26% Lomami* ACTUAL 63% → 71% 25% → 26%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

*Admin 1 areas have been grouped into regions for analysis, therefore share the same trend. See methodology note for more details. HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 26 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the food-based coping situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies. These regions account for 48% of the total number of people currently monitored for food-based coping in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 21.9M people.

PREVALENCE OF CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL FOOD-BASED TOTAL NO. COPING STRATEGIES (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Kasaï- 55% 4.94M 2.74M Central* ACTUAL Kasaï* ACTUAL 55% 3.94M 2.18M

Sankuru* ACTUAL 53% 2.12M 1.12M

Lomami* ACTUAL 53% 4.13M 2.19M

Kasaï- 53% 5.60M 2.97M Oriental* ACTUAL Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 51% 7.34M 3.74M

Equateur* ACTUAL 48% 2.52M 1.20M

Mongala* ACTUAL 48% 2.60M 1.24M

Sud- 48% 2.96M 1.41M Ubangi* ACTUAL Nord- 48% 1.63M 776k Ubangi* ACTUAL Tshuapa* ACTUAL 48% 2.18M 1.04M

Maniema* ACTUAL 47% 2.72M 1.28M

Trends of the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

Kwango* ACTUAL Kwilu* ACTUAL Maï- Sankuru* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL Kasaï- 35% → 39% 35% → 39% Ndombe* ACTUAL 54% → 53% 54% → 53% Oriental* ACTUAL 35% → 39% 54% → 53%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL Equateur* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL Sud-Ubangi* ACTUAL Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL Tshuapa* ACTUAL 49% → 44% 54% → 48% 54% → 48% 54% → 48% 54% → 48% 54% → 48%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets1

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the market access situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets. These regions account for 63% of the total number of people currently monitored for market access in Democratic Republic of the Congo—amounting to approximately 33.2M people.

PREVALENCE OF CHALLENGES ACCESSING MARKETS TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL 81% 7.34M 5.91M

Maniema* ACTUAL 70% 2.72M 1.92M

Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL 63% 10.7M 6.68M

Kasaï- 57% 4.94M 2.81M Central* ACTUAL Kasaï* ACTUAL 57% 3.94M 2.24M

Kasaï- 49% 5.60M 2.76M Oriental* ACTUAL Lomami* ACTUAL 49% 4.13M 2.04M

Sankuru* ACTUAL 49% 2.12M 1.04M

Haut- 48% 6.34M 3.04M Katanga* ACTUAL Haut- 48% 4.23M 2.03M Lomami* ACTUAL Lualaba* ACTUAL 48% 2.44M 1.17M

Tanganyika* ACTUAL 48% 3.28M 1.58M

Trends of the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of challenges accessing markets.

Sud-Kivu* ACTUAL Kwilu* ACTUAL Kwango* ACTUAL Maï- Sud-Ubangi* ACTUAL Mongala* ACTUAL 56% → 81% 36% → 44% 36% → 44% Ndombe* ACTUAL 41% → 45% 41% → 45% 36% → 44%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Tshuapa* ACTUAL Equateur* ACTUAL Nord-Ubangi* ACTUAL Kinshasa* ACTUAL Nord-Kivu* ACTUAL Maniema* ACTUAL 41% → 45% 41% → 45% 41% → 45% 32% → 35% 58% → 63% 74% → 70%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

1 Challenges include both physical and fnancial constraints. *Admin 1 areas have been grouped into regions for analysis, therefore share the same trend. See methodology note for more details. Annex: Summary of food security and related metrics in Democratic Republic of the Congo, 26 August 2021

TOTAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WITH INSUFFICIENT FOOD PEOPLE USING CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL PEOPLE REPORTING CHALLENGES REFERENCE (MILLIONS) CONSUMPTION (MILLIONS) FOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGIES (MILLIONS) ACCESSING MARKETS (MILLIONS) Bas-Uele ACTUAL 1.29 0.46 0.50 0.58 Equateur ACTUAL 2.52 0.92 1.20 1.13 Haut- 6.34 1.67 2.67 3.04 Katanga ACTUAL Haut- 4.23 1.11 1.78 2.03 Lomami ACTUAL Haut-Uele ACTUAL 1.87 0.67 0.73 0.83 Ituri ACTUAL 5.75 2.05 2.24 2.56 Kasaï ACTUAL 3.94 2.79 2.18 2.24 Kasaï- 4.94 3.49 2.74 2.81 Central ACTUAL Kasaï- 5.60 2.94 2.97 2.76 Oriental ACTUAL Kinshasa ACTUAL 10.39 2.94 2.40 3.61 Kongo- 4.16 1.22 0.96 1.17 Central ACTUAL Kwango ACTUAL 2.58 0.87 1.02 1.13 Kwilu ACTUAL 5.17 1.73 2.04 2.27 Lomami ACTUAL 4.13 2.17 2.19 2.04 Lualaba ACTUAL 2.44 0.64 1.03 1.17 Maï- 1.98 0.67 0.78 0.87 Ndombe ACTUAL Maniema ACTUAL 2.72 1.60 1.28 1.92 Mongala ACTUAL 2.60 0.95 1.24 1.16 Nord-Kivu ACTUAL 10.69 4.01 4.74 6.68 Nord- 1.63 0.59 0.78 0.73 Ubangi ACTUAL Sankuru ACTUAL 2.12 1.11 1.12 1.04 Sud-Kivu ACTUAL 7.34 3.71 3.74 5.91 Sud- 2.96 1.08 1.41 1.32 Ubangi ACTUAL Tanganyika ACTUAL 3.28 0.86 1.38 1.58 Tshopo ACTUAL 3.07 1.10 1.20 1.37 Tshuapa ACTUAL 2.18 0.79 1.04 0.97 Methodology: Administrative level 1 analysis in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Results have been computed grouping administrative level 1 (ADM1) areas into strata (or regions), as specifed in the table below. All ADM1 belonging to the same region will contain the same prevalence of households with insufcient food consumption or utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

To compute the number of people with insufcient food consumption or utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping for a specifc ADM1, the ADM1 population is multiplied by the regional prevalence.

Relationship between administrative level 1 and analysis strata

ADMIN 1 ANALYSIS STRATA

Kwango Bandundu Kwilu Bandundu Maï-Ndombe Bandundu Kongo-Central Bas-Congo Equateur Equateur Mongala Equateur Nord-Ubangi Equateur Sud-Ubangi Equateur Tshuapa Equateur Kasaï Kasaï-Occidental Kasaï-Central Kasaï-Occidental Kasaï-Oriental Kasaï-Oriental Lomami Kasaï-Oriental Sankuru Kasaï-Oriental Haut-Katanga Katanga Haut-Lomami Katanga Lualaba Katanga Tanganyika Katanga Kinshasa Kinshasa Maniema Maniema Nord-Kivu Nord-Kivu Bas-Uele Orientale Haut-Uele Orientale Ituri Orientale Tshopo Orientale Sud-Kivu Sud-Kivu HungerMapLIVE: Democratic Republic of the Congo insight and key trends 26 August 2021

DEEP DIVE

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CONFLICT

Please note that real-time confict data updates from the Armed Confict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) are currently paused through 6 September. Consequently, confict analyses provided by the HungerMapLIVE’s global, regional and national Insights and Key Trends are currently unavailable. Confict information will be visible again after 6 September.