3 International Stock Assessment and Data Needs
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26 EIFAC/ICES WGEEL Report 2008 3 International stock assessment and data needs 3.1 Introduction on stock assessment and data needs TheȱEuropeanȱUnionȱhasȱdecidedȱonȱaȱprotectionȱandȱrestorationȱplanȱ(EelȱRegulaȬ tion)ȱinȱ2007,ȱaimingȱatȱtheȱprotectionȱofȱ40%ȱofȱtheȱsilverȱeels,ȱrelativeȱtoȱaȱsituationȱ withoutȱ humanȱ influence.ȱ Atȱ theȱ heartȱ ofȱ theȱ Regulationȱ isȱ theȱ obligationȱ forȱ allȱ MemberȱStatesȱtoȱdevelopȱaȱ(nationalȱorȱriverȱbasinȱspecific)ȱmanagementȱplanȱforȱtheȱ eelȱ stockȱ andȱ fisheries,ȱ aimingȱ atȱ theȱ agreedȱ 40%ȱ target.ȱ Eachȱ managementȱ planȱ shouldȱcontainȱanȱassessmentȱofȱtheȱcurrentȱstatusȱofȱtheȱlocalȱstock,ȱaȱdescriptionȱofȱ futureȱmonitoringȱandȱregistrationȱofȱcatchȱandȱfisheriesȱforȱfutureȱassessmentsȱofȱtheȱ stockȱandȱanthropogenicȱimpacts.ȱ Theȱ WGEELȱ considersȱ itsȱ tasksȱ (ICESȱ andȱ EIFACȱ ToRs)ȱ toȱ assessȱ andȱ evaluateȱ theȱ overallȱstatusȱofȱtheȱstock,ȱandȱtheȱimpactȱofȱprotectionȱmeasuresȱtaken.ȱThereȱisȱanȱ apparentȱoverlapȱwithȱtheȱobligationȱinȱtheȱEelȱRegulation,ȱtoȱreportȱonȱtheȱstatusȱofȱ theȱstockȱinȱindividualȱEelȱManagementȱUnits,ȱandȱwithȱtheȱevaluationȱbyȱtheȱComȬ mission.ȱHowever,ȱtheȱassessmentȱofȱtheȱworkingȱgroupȱwillȱfocusȱonȱtheȱtotalȱpopuȬ lation,ȱindependentȱofȱtheȱsplitȱoverȱjurisdictionsȱandȱmanagementȱunits.ȱOnlyȱwhereȱ theȱbiologicalȱprocessesȱareȱinherentlyȱspatiallyȱdiversified,ȱwillȱtheȱassessmentȱofȱtheȱ workingȱgroupȱgoȱintoȱdisaggregateȱanalyses.ȱ Thisȱchapterȱwillȱelaborateȱtheȱconceptsȱofȱanȱinternationalȱassessmentȱofȱaȱregionallyȱ managedȱstockȱ(Sectionȱ3.2),ȱandȱderiveȱcriteriaȱforȱaȱminimallyȱrequiredȱdatasetȱonȱ eelȱ(Sectionȱ3.3).ȱ 3.2 International stock assessment 3.2.1 International management and stock assessment TheȱEUȱRegulationȱonȱeelȱsetsȱaȱcommonȱtargetȱforȱtheȱescapementȱofȱsilverȱeels,ȱatȱ 40%ȱ ofȱ theȱ naturalȱ escapementȱ inȱ theȱ absenceȱ ofȱ anthropogenicȱ impacts.ȱ Inȱ accorȬ danceȱ withȱ theȱ precautionaryȱ adviceȱprovidedȱ byȱ ICESȱ (2002),ȱitȱ isȱ assumedȱ thatȱ aȱ stockȱrecruitmentȱrelationshipȱexists.ȱMemberȱStatesȱareȱobligedȱtoȱimplementȱprotecȬ tiveȱmeasuresȱtoȱachieveȱtheȱescapementȱtarget,ȱandȱshouldȱprovideȱaȱtimeȱscheduleȱ forȱ theȱ attainmentȱ ofȱ thisȱ target.ȱ Thisȱ timeȱ scheduleȱ isȱ certainlyȱ muchȱ moreȱ deterȬ minedȱbyȱtheȱslowȱbiologicalȱrestorationȱofȱtheȱstockȱ(decades;ȱÅströmȱandȱDekker,ȱ 2007),ȱ thanȱ byȱ theȱ timeȱ requiredȱ to ȱ implementȱ theȱ protectionȱ measuresȱ completelyȱ (years?).ȱTheȱRegulationȱsetsȱnoȱlimitȱonȱtheȱtimeȱframeȱforȱrestoration.ȱImplicitly,ȱthisȱ rulesȱoutȱtheȱhypothesisȱthatȱtheȱstock–recruitmentȱrelationshipȱisȱdeterminedȱbyȱdeȬ pensatoryȱprocesses,ȱasȱtentativelyȱfoundȱinȱhistoricalȱdataȱ(Dekker,ȱ2004;ȱICESȱ2007).ȱ Asȱ anȱ alternativeȱ toȱ theȱ depensationȱ hypothesis,ȱ itȱ hasȱ beenȱ hypothesized,ȱ thatȱ theȱ declineȱofȱtheȱstockȱmightȱhaveȱbeenȱcausedȱbyȱclimateȱfactorsȱ(Chapterȱ7ȱofȱthisȱreȬ port),ȱpollutionȱorȱparasitismȱ(chapterȱ6ȱofȱthisȱreport),ȱandȱothersȱactingȱinȱtheȱoceȬ anicȱphase.ȱ NotingȱthatȱtheȱEUȱEelȱRegulationȱhasȱsetȱtargetsȱforȱtheȱquantityȱ(biomass)ȱofȱsilverȱ eelsȱescapingȱfromȱtheȱcontinent,ȱandȱobligesȱMemberȱStatesȱtoȱtakeȱprotectiveȱmeasȬ uresȱprimarilyȱfocusingȱonȱtheȱquantitiesȱescaping,ȱbutȱhasȱnotȱsetȱtargetsȱandȱdoesȱ notȱobligeȱtoȱtakeȱactionsȱwithȱrespectȱtoȱotherȱprocessesȱ(relatedȱtoȱsilverȱeelȱquality,ȱ orȱ climateȱ change)ȱ in ȱ relationȱ toȱ eelȱ managementȱ (ifȱ possible),ȱ theȱ internationalȱ asȬ sessmentȱofȱtheȱstatusȱofȱtheȱstockȱwillȱpresentlyȱfocusȱonȱtheȱdynamicsȱofȱstockȱinȱ numbersȱ andȱ quantities,ȱ andȱ onȱ theȱ effectȱ ofȱ protectionȱ andȱ restorationȱ measuresȱ taken.ȱThisȱdoesȱnot,ȱinȱprinciple,ȱruleȱoutȱpotentialȱeffectsȱofȱotherȱfactors, ȱincludingȱ silverȱ eelȱ qualityȱ and/orȱ climateȱ factors.ȱ However,ȱ sinceȱ theȱ mechanismsȱ involvedȱ EIFAC/ICES WGEEL Report 2008 27 haveȱnotȱbeenȱclearedȱup,ȱandȱtheȱquantitativeȱimpactȱonȱtheȱstockȱisȱunclear,ȱthereȱisȱ noȱ wayȱ forwardȱ toȱ includeȱ theseȱ aspectsȱ inȱ internationalȱ stockȱ assessmentȱ atȱ thisȱ momentȱinȱtime.ȱFurtherȱresearchȱwillȱbeȱneeded,ȱtoȱelucidateȱtheȱprocesses,ȱtoȱquanȬ tifyȱtheȱimpacts,ȱtoȱfindȱmitigationȱmeasures,ȱtoȱadviseȱmanagementȱtargets,ȱandȱtoȱ assessȱ theȱ netȱ effectsȱ ofȱ measuresȱ takenȱ onȱ theȱ eelȱ stock.ȱ Untilȱ thatȱ hasȱ beenȱ done,ȱ primeȱ focusȱ inȱ theȱ stockȱ assessmentȱ willȱ necessarilyȱ restȱ withȱ “classical”ȱ fishȱ stockȱ assessment,ȱwhichȱforȱtheȱeelȱcase,ȱwillȱbeȱcomplexȱenough.ȱ Underȱ theȱ EUȱ Eelȱ Regulation,ȱ an ȱ internationalȱ assessmentȱ willȱ beȱ requiredȱ ofȱ theȱ populationȬwideȱstatusȱofȱtheȱstock,ȱandȱanȱassessmentȱofȱtheȱimpactȱofȱtheȱmanageȬ mentȱmeasuresȱtaken.ȱTheȱRegulationȱfocusesȱonȱstockȱdynamicsȱinȱtermsȱofȱquantiȬ tiesȱandȱbiomassȱandȱthusȱtheȱassessmentȱleavesȱasideȱscientificȱdebatesȱonȱtheȱimpactȱ ofȱspawnerȱqualityȱand/orȱclimateȱfactors.ȱAȱdecisionȱtreeȱdiagramȱforȱthisȱassessmentȱ isȱpresentedȱinȱFigureȱ3.1.ȱTheȱindicatedȱstepsȱareȱelaboratedȱinȱtheȱtextȱbelow;ȱ START 1. Trend in recruitment? increase 1.a increase continues over a long period (decades)? yes Success !! Recruitment does not restore, despite increasing silver eel escapement. decrease, or This is NOT consistent with the precautionary assumption of a minor increase (standard) stock-recruitment relationship. Several hypotheses arise: - incorrect assessment of trends in recruits or silver eels - stock-recruitment relationship is non-standard (e.g. depensatory) - unaccounted anthropogenic impacts (e.g. pollution, parasites, ...) 2. Global trend in silver eel increase - external pertubating processes (e.g. climate, ...) Further research will be required in order - to correct monitoring deficiencies, - to resolve the cause of the apparent mismatch between trends decrease - to develop mitigation measures, if possible - to set targets for cause, mitigation measure and effect on the eel stock - to post-evaluate net effects of these measures on the eel stock. 3. Local trend in silver eel escapement ? Locally successful management, encourage other areas to do the same, increase Assess by River Basin District! and consider stronger measures to speed up the recovery process! decrease Density dependence generally occurs where stock density is close to the potential maximum (carrying capacity). If local silver eel escapement declines, while available habitat does not, this indicates that that maximum is NOT reached anymore. 4. Is density dependence dominating Consider the following: the current local silver eel escapement? yes - incorrect assessment of trends Assess by River Basin District! - density dependence was actually not dominating the stock dynamics - unaccounted (non)-anthropogenic impacts, changing the carrying capacity. Research will be required, to find cause and remedy. Meanwhile, a further no precautionary reduction in anthropogenic impacts will be required. 5. Is relative survival (spawner per recruit) Await slow recovery, according to your local time schedule, consistent with your local time schedule? yes or take stronger measures to speed up the recovery process! Assess by River Basin District! no "Standard" fish stock assessment tools, including cohort-models, length-based assessments, etc. Tool-box development and standardisation of post-evaluation techniques is recommended. Development of standard targets for survival and time schedule is recommended. Escapement and survival below expectation, much stronger protective measures required!! Figureȱ3.1:ȱDecisionȱtreeȱforȱinternationalȱassessmentȱofȱtheȱimpactȱofȱprotectiveȱmeasuresȱtakenȱ underȱ theȱ EUȱ Eelȱ Regulation.ȱ Internationalȱ issuesȱ areȱ depictedȱ inȱ aȱ singleȬlinedȱ box,ȱ whereasȱ RiverȱBasinȱSpecificȱissuesȱareȱinȱaȱdoubleȬlinedȱbox.ȱ 28 EIFAC/ICES WGEEL Report 2008 3.2.2 Only recruitment and escapement trends? Takingȱaȱsuperficialȱ viewȱonȱ firstȱ examinationȱ ofȱ theȱ taskȱ ofȱinternationalȱ stockȱ asȬ sessment,ȱitȱmightȱappearȱthatȱtheȱtimeȬseriesȱdataȱonȱspawnerȱemigrationȱandȱglassȱ eelȱ recruitmentȱ areȱ theȱ onlyȱ dataȱ itemsȱ ofȱ informationȱ essentialȱ toȱ internationalȱ asȬ sessmentȱofȱeelȱstockȱandȱrecruitment.ȱThisȱview,ȱhowever,ȱignoresȱtheȱrealityȱofȱtheȱ currentȱ andȱ probableȱ futureȱ situation.ȱ Onlyȱ ifȱ recruitmentȱ wereȱ toȱ recoverȱ rapidlyȱ followingȱmeasuresȱtoȱincreaseȱspawningȱstock,ȱresultingȱinȱconfidenceȱthatȱrecoveryȱ isȱunderway,ȱwouldȱtheseȱtwoȱdataȱitemsȱsuffice.ȱSuchȱaȱrapidȱrecoveryȱisȱanȱunlikelyȱ scenario,ȱgivenȱthatȱourȱabilityȱtoȱincreaseȱspawningȱstockȱescapementȱsignificantlyȱ willȱ beȱ limitedȱ forȱ atȱ leastȱ anȱ eelȱ generation,ȱ asȱ aȱ consequenceȱ ofȱ theȱ pastȱ 15ȱ toȱ 25ȱ yearsȱofȱlowȱrecruitmentȱyetȱtoȱfeedȱthroughȱtoȱspawnerȱemigrationȱ(Chapterȱ2ȱofȱthisȱ report).ȱ Itȱ isȱ quiteȱ probable,ȱ therefore,ȱ thatȱ recruitmentȱ willȱ continueȱ toȱ declineȱ forȱ someȱtime,ȱandȱitȱwillȱbeȱalmostȱunavoidableȱthatȱsilverȱeelȱescapementȱwillȱalsoȱdeȬ clineȱconsiderablyȱfurtherȱforȱatȱleastȱsomeȱyears.ȱTheȱeffectivenessȱofȱprotectionȱandȱ restorationȱ measuresȱ takenȱ underȱ theȱ EUȱ Eelȱ Regulationȱ willȱ thereforeȱ haveȱ toȱ beȱ judgedȱonȱaȱrelativeȱscale:ȱtheȱrelativeȱimprovementȱofȱsurvivalȱ fromȱrecruitȱtoȱsilverȱ eel.ȱThisȱnecessitatesȱtheȱanalysisȱofȱtheȱfullȱcontinentalȱphaseȱofȱtheȱlifeȱcycle.ȱ 3.2.3 Issues of time-scale TheȱprincipalȱobjectiveȱofȱWGEELȱatȱitsȱfutureȱmeetingsȱwillȱbeȱassessment,ȱrenewedȱ annually,ȱofȱtheȱstateȱofȱtheȱstockȱandȱrecruitmentȱatȱanȱinternationalȱlevel.ȱTheȱdeȬ siredȱobjectiveȱofȱcurrentȱmanagementȱisȱclearlyȱthatȱmeasuresȱtakenȱtoȱprotectȱandȱ enhanceȱspawnerȱescapementȱresultȱinȱincreasedȱrecruitment.ȱTheȱtimeȬscaleȱforȱfullȱ