GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE

FRIDAY 10 OCTOBER 2014

AT 9.30AM

IN THE COUNCIL CHAMBER, CIVIC OFFICES, 53 HEREFORD STREET

Committee: UDS Independent Chair Bill Wasley

Christchurch City Council Mayor Lianne Dalziel, Councillors Paul Lonsdale and Phil Clearwater

Environment Canterbury Commissioners Dame Margaret Bazley, Peter Skelton and Rex Williams

Selwyn District Council Mayor Kelvin Coe, Councillors Malcolm Lyall and Mark Alexander

Waimakariri District Council Mayor David Ayers, Councillors Jim Gerard and Neville Atkinson

Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu Sir Mark Solomon and Elizabeth Cunningham

New Zealand Transport Agency (observer) Jim Harland

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (observer) Roger Sutton

UDS Implementation Manager Committee Adviser Keith Tallentire Barbara Strang Telephone: 03 941-8590 Telephone: 941-5216

AGENDA

ITEM NO DESCRIPTION PAGE NO

1. APOLOGIES 1

2. DECLARATION OF INTEREST 1

3. DEPUTATIONS BY APPOINTMENT 1

4. CONFIRMATION OF MINUTES 11 JULY 2014 1

5. GREATER CHRISTCHURCH FREIGHT STUDY 9

1 GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE 10.10.2014

1. APOLOGIES

2. DECLARATION OF INTEREST

Members are reminded of the need to be vigilant to stand aside from decision making when a conflict arises between their role as a member and any private or other external interest they might have.

3. DEPUTATIONS BY APPOINTMENT

4. MINUTES OF THE MEETING 11 JULY 2014

Attached.

It is recommended that the Committee confirm the minutes (open and public excluded) of its meeting on 11 July 2014. 2 3 GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE 10.10.2014

ATTACHMENT TO CLAUSE 4

REPORT OF A MEETING OF THE GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE (UDSIC)

Held in Committee Room 1, Civic Building, Christchurch City Council 53 Hereford Street, Christchurch on Friday 11 July 2014 commencing at 9.40am.

PRESENT: Urban Development Strategy (UDS) Bill Wasley (Independent Chair)

Christchurch City Council Mayor Lianne Dalziel, Councillor Paul Lonsdale

Environment Canterbury Commissioners Dame Margaret Bazley, Peter Skelton and Rex Williams

Selwyn District Council Councillor Mark Alexander

Waimakariri District Council Mayor David Ayers, Councillors Jim Gerard and Neville Atkinson

Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu Sir Mark Solomon and Elizabeth Cunningham

New Zealand Transport Agency (observer) Jim Harland

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (observer) Roger Sutton

APOLOGIES: Apologies were received and accepted from Councillor Phil Clearwater (Christchurch City Council), Mayor Kelvin Coe (Selwyn District Council) and Malcolm Lyall (Selwyn District Council). Sir Mark Solomon (Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu) left the meeting at 10.05am and was absent for Clause 6. Deputy Mayor Vicki Buck (Christchurch City Council) left the meeting at 10.20am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Elizabeth Cunningham (Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu) left the meeting at 10.19am and returned at 10.22am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Roger Sutton (Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority) left the meeting at 10.55am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Mayor Lianne Dalziel (Christchurch City Council) left the meeting at 10.57am and was absent for part of Clause 6. IN ATTENDANCE: Deputy Mayor Vicki Buck,

The meeting was adjourned from 9.40am to 9.54am.

1. DECLARATION OF INTEREST

No declarations were made.

4 GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE 10.10.2014

2. DEPUTATIONS BY APPOINTMENT

Nil.

3. CONFIRMATION OF PREVIOUS MINUTES

The Committee received the minutes of the previous meeting of 13 September 2013.

4. ELECTION OF DEPUTY CHAIR

The Committee resolved to reappoint Mayor David Ayers as Deputy Chair of the Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee for the duration of this triennium.

5. RESOLUTION TO EXCLUDE THE PUBLIC

The Subcommittee resolved to adopt the resolution to exclude the public as set out on page 12 of the agenda, for consideration of item 6.

The public were readmitted to the meeting at 11.08am at which point the meeting concluded.

5

MINUTES OF A MEETING OF THE GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE

PUBLIC EXCLUDED

Held in Committee Room 1, Civic Offices, 53 Hereford Street, Christchurch on Friday, 11 July 2014 at 9.40am

PRESENT: Urban Development Strategy (UDS) Bill Wasley (Independent Chair)

Christchurch City Council Mayor Lianne Dalziel, Councillor Paul Lonsdale

Environment Canterbury Commissioners Dame Margaret Bazley, Peter Skelton and Rex Williams

Selwyn District Council Councillor Mark Alexander

Waimakariri District Council Mayor David Ayers, Councillors Jim Gerard and Neville Atkinson

Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu Sir Mark Solomon and Elizabeth Cunningham

New Zealand Transport Agency (observer) Jim Harland

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (observer) Roger Sutton

APOLOGIES: Apologies were received and accepted from Councillor Phil Clearwater (Christchurch City Council), Mayor Kelvin Coe and Councillor Malcolm Lyall (Selwyn District Council). Sir Mark Solomon (Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu) left the meeting at 10.05am and was absent for Clause 6. Deputy Mayor Vicki Buck (Christchurch City Council) left the meeting at 10.20am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Elizabeth Cunningham (Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu) left the meeting at 10.19am and returned at 10.22am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Roger Sutton (Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority) left the meeting at 10.55am and was absent for part of Clause 6. Mayor Lianne Dalziel (Christchurch City Council) left the meeting at 10.57am and was absent for part of Clause 6. IN ATTENDANCE Deputy Mayor Vicki Buck

6. NORTHERN ACCESS SHORT TERM RESPONSE PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT

The Committee were updated on the assessment of short term options to address northern access congestion issues and seek endorsement of the recommended programme of short term actions so that the affected Councils can consider ratification at their next meetings.

STAFF RECOMMENDATION:

That the Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee:

a) Note the report and the joint task force work undertaken to assess the northern access options. b) Agree to the problem statement and outcomes sought for the short term programme of interventions.

* UDS partners in respect of this matter are the Christchurch City Council, Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council, Environment Canterbury, Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu and New Zealand Transport Agency. 6 Greater Christchurch UDS Implementation Committee 11. 7. 2014 - 2 - 6. Cont’d

c) Endorsed the recommended short term response programme to be delivered through the partner organisation processes. d) Agree to refer the short term response programme to the respective Councils or Agencies for ratification and consideration of funding options at their next available meetings in July. e) Note that Officers will continue to explore further options for the medium and long term programme.

COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATION:

The Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee:

1. Noted the report and the joint taskforce work undertaken to assess the northern access options.

2. Agrees on an amended problem statement which recognises the financial implications and ability to pay challenges for the partners in meeting their share of the solutions to address the outcomes sought for the short term programme of interventions. The amended problem statement is as follows:

The large number of people travelling from Waimakariri District to Christchurch City each day has resulted in the travel demand exceeding the network capacity causing congestion and unreliable travel times. The accelerated need for a short term response poses financial challenges for the partners as their current annual plans and long term plans do not contain resources for the proposed solutions.

The desired outcome is as follows:

Reduce congestion and provide appropriate journey time level of service and predictable travel times (reliability).

3a. Agrees that the short term rail package (options 4a & 4b) is not progressed.

3b. (i) Agrees to continue with the easily implemented options (Road Optimisation and Traveller Information, options 5 & 6) as set out in sections 5 to 8 of the Northern Access Short term Response Programme Development report (dated 11 July 2014).

(ii) Agrees that further work be undertaken to investigate the Bus Package – implementation, costs, routes and timings and develop a funding package between the parties (options 1 & 2) as set out in sections 5 to 8 of the Northern Access Short Term Response Programme Development report (dated 11 July 2014).

(iii) Agrees that further work be undertaken to investigate High Occupancy Vehicles (option 3) as set out in sections 5 to 8 of the Northern Access short term response programme development report (dated 11 July 2014).

(iv) Agrees that work be undertaken to investigate and then report back on road tolling options for the Waimakariri Bridge.

4. Notes that officers will continue to explore further options for medium and long term public transport including the role of rail

5a. Agrees that Waimakariri District Council and Christchurch City Council work together to communicate the need for commuters to change their travel behaviour from the current 84 per cent single vehicle occupancy to become part of the solution.

5b. Agrees that targeted communication be undertaken with employers and large institutions such as schools and hospitals and also business parks on the need for encouraging a range of solutions including flexibility of start and finish times (refer options 5 and 6 of the report) and carpooling.

* UDS partners in respect of this matter are the Christchurch City Council, Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council, Environment Canterbury, Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu and New Zealand Transport Agency.

7 Greater Christchurch UDS Implementation Committee 11. 7. 2014 - 3 -

6. Notes that addressing single vehicle occupancy and travel demand behaviour may assist the longer term performance of the transport network.

7. Agrees that the report and resolutions remain in public excluded until all parties have made their decision in respect to the report and resolutions.

8. Agrees that the above resolutions be referred to the respective councils / agencies for consideration and ratification at their next available meetings in July (it was agreed that the resolutions did not need to be endorsed by Selwyn District Council but that the information would be provided to the Selwyn District Council).

The public were readmitted to the meeting at 11.08am at which point the meeting concluded.

* UDS partners in respect of this matter are the Christchurch City Council, Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council, Environment Canterbury, Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu and New Zealand Transport Agency.

8 9 GREATER CHRISTCHURCH URBAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE 10.10.2014

5. GREATER CHRISTCHURCH FREIGHT STUDY 10 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 CLAUSE 5 11

Report To: Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee

Subject: Greater Christchurch Freight Study

Report Authors: Greater Christchurch Transport Statement Steering Group

Meeting Date: 10 October 2014

Purpose of this Report

This is to update the Committee on progress of the Greater Christchurch Freight Study, and provide the high level findings from the Study that will be used as input to future planning exercises.

Background

The Freight Study commenced in August 2013 in response to a number of the Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) actions and the Land Use Recovery Plan (LURP) Action 40. This study is being led by the New Zealand Transport Agency in collaboration with Christchurch City Council, Waimakariri District Council, Selwyn District Council, and Environment Canterbury, and is supported by Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, KiwiRail and Christchurch International Airport Ltd.

The study has been undertaken in three steps with sub‐reports as follows:  Freight Demand Statement – which assessed origins and destinations of demand; assessment of freight by commodities, freight hubs and generation points. This provided validation of the GCTS growth forecasts with the addition of a range of forecasts. (Completed).

 Freight Infrastructure Statement – assessed current infrastructure capacity, supply chain capability and identified constraints and opportunities for the future. (Completed).

 Freight Management Directions Statement– compiled the key issues and actions for the partners. It provides an overview on optimisation opportunities, land use response and capacity improvements (both through infrastructure improvements and operational procedures for logistics and travel demand management). (Draft Final document).

The National Freight Demand Statement review was completed during the course of the Study and has been incorporated into the findings. There was a close parallel with the outcomes of the Demand Statement.

1 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 CLAUSE 5 12

Freight Demand Statement ‐ completed

The Freight Demand Statement is a desktop review of information, data and forecasts from the partners and other sources. This tested the key GCTS 30 year assumptions as follows and identified an alternative range of futures:

GCTS 2041 Aurecon 2041 Measure or commodity GCTS 2010 (growth) (growth) Population 435,000 550,000 (0.9%) Employment 200,000 244,000 (0.7%) Containers (TEU) 290,000 1,500,000 (5.3%*) Lower 782,000 (5.5%) Upper 1.5m (5.3%*) Air freight (tonnes) 25,000^ 400,000 (7.5%) 107,000 (10.6%) Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 1,200,000 (2.6%) Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,800,000 (2.6%) 1,371,000 (1.2%) Logs (tonnes) 250,000 260,000 (0.1%) 739,000# (6.3%) Coal (tonnes) 2,300,000 5,000,000 (3.8%) 3,000,000 (1.0%) * Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other growth rates are based on annual linear growth) ^ Revised to 25,000 was 120,000 # Shows peak demand for the anticipated “Wall of wood” at around 2026

These forecasts are the agreed values of the GCTS partners and should be taken into account in the growth planning of the partners and for the development of the Lyttelton Port Recovery Plan.

In summary it reached the following conclusions:

‐ The population and employment forecasts appear reasonable, as tested against the Statistics New Zealand projections. 2 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 CLAUSE 5 13

‐ Planning for freight growth is best achieved using a bounded approach taking into account a possible forecast range. In the case of containers which make up the bulk of freight movements; the upper bound is based on the original GCTS forecast which assumes compound growth allowing for growth due to increased dairy production, economic activity, the impact of the plains irrigation scheme, the possible impact of larger vessels and LPC capturing a larger market share of South Island freight. The lower bound is consistent with the National Freight Demand Statement and allows for a lesser, though still significant increase based on applying the historic growth trend. On this basis the recommendation is that the GCTS partners plan according to freight volume milestones, and monitor growth to ascertain the appropriate time for intervention and response.

Freight Infrastructure Statement ‐ completed

The Freight Infrastructure Statement looked at the current infrastructure and mode share and identified that there is a high percentage of freight moved by rail with the high volume of coal (approx. 20% v 7% nationally). It also found that Christchurch is well placed to move larger commodities and still has capacity in its networks to move more. While the majority of imports/export pass through the Port, there are a number of high value‐time sensitive products that are moved through the airport.

The key areas of concern in the network were the resilience and capacity of the corridor between Rolleston and the Port (including both road and rail), efficiencies for handling freight at the port and the interaction between rail/road at the Hornby/Middleton area.

This is giving rise to the identified further transport constraints and the need to focus particularly on the following areas:  Improving efficiencies at the Lyttelton Port  Improving the Hornby to Lyttelton Port link  Increasing air‐freight opportunities  Reliability and Resilience across the network

Freight Management Directions Statement – draft Final

The Freight Management Directions Statement (FMDS) has a draft Final report ready for final endorsement by the partners. The Freight Management Directions Statement builds on the other two documents and provides recommendations for further optimisation and improvements to the freight network and management practices. The GCTS outcomes have been used to identify the contributions of the proposed actions and the timeframes (short, medium and long term) and risks for implementation. This is tabulated in Table 5 of the FMDS in Attachment 3.

In summary the actions are identified in the following general areas:

3 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 CLAUSE 5 14

 Improve efficiencies and capacity at the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch  Apply freight demand management initiatives to optimise use of existing infrastructure  Network optimisation of road and rail between Rolleston and the Port (including Brougham Street)  Development of inland port and associated freight precincts  Improve the Rolleston to Lyttelton Port links including Brougham Street, the rail corridor and Lyttelton Tunnel  Increase air‐freight opportunities  Improve resilience across the network including re‐opening of Sumner Road

The Study outcomes have recommended a range of freight forecasts and options for the partners to consider, but has not bound the partners to any particular action. The Freight Management Directions Statement suggests a number of interventions that will be developed further through the ongoing planning of the GCTS partners and operational practices of freight operators and their customers. The opportunities for this are through:  Continued collaboration between the Greater Christchurch Transport Statement Partners.  Programmes in the Regional Land Transport Plan  District Plan Rules in the Christchurch City Plan, Waimakariri District Plan, Selwyn District Plan and other relevant Plans  Land Use Recovery Plan  Lyttelton Port Recovery Plan  Network Management Plans, tactical plans and operations Plans

The partners will continue to coordinate this GCTS work through the UDS Transport Group and reporting mechanisms to the Chief Executives Advisory Group and UDSIC.

RECOMMENDATIONS It is recommended that the Urban Development Strategy Implementation Committee: 1. Notes the development of the Greater Christchurch Freight Study, 2. Endorses the use of the Freight Demand Statement and the Freight Infrastructure Statement as informing documents to the development of the Regional Land Transport Plan and other Recovery Plans, and 3. Agrees to the public release of the Demand and Infrastructure Statements as inputs to ongoing freight planning work. 4. Notes the draft Freight Management Directions Statement that is being finalised as a guiding document for partner actions for ongoing freight planning work. 5. Supports the use of the above documents for the ongoing collaborative work of the GCTS partners who will apply their best endeavours to give effect to the freight priority actions identified.

4 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 CLAUSE 5 15

ATTACHMENTS:

1: Greater Christchurch Freight Demand Statement 2: Greater Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement 3: Greater Christchurch Freight Management Directions Statement 4: GCTS Freight Study presentation

5 16 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 17

Greater Christchurch Freight Demand Statement

July 2014 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 18

Page | 2 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 19

Contents

1. Introduction 9 2. National Freight Demand Study 19 3. Population Employment by area 29 5. Containers 35 6. Imported dry bulk 49 7. Import Petroleumn 55 8. Export logs 65 9. Export Coal 71 10. Air freight through Christchurch International Airport 77 11. Internal freight movements 85 12. Christchurch Rebuild 89 13. Concluding remarks 93 14. Glossary 99 15. References 103

Page | 3 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 20

Figures Figure 1 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components Figure 2 - Greater Christchurch boundary shown in the context of the wider definition, which includes Selwyn and Waimakariri districts Figure 3 - Canterbury and its position on the South Island Figure 4 - Alternative number of household forecasts Figure 5 - Population in Christchurch and the South Island (2006) Figure 6 - Population and forecasts for Greater Christchurch Figure 7 - Population and forecasts for Canterbury Figure 8 - Population and forecasts for the South Island Figure 9 - Employment in Christchurch and the South Island (2006) Figure 10 - Employment and forecasts for Greater Christchurch Figure 11 - Employment and trends for Canterbury and South Island Figure 12 - Container types handled by the LPC Figure 13 - Container trade and forecasts for the LPC Figure 14 - Containerised commodities imported through the LPC 2011/12 Figure 15 - Estimated destinations for containerised freight imported through the LPC Figure 16 - Containerised commodities exported through the LPC 2012/11 Figure 17 - Milk and dairy production and processing chain in the Canterbury region Figure 18 - Milk solid production and trend for the North Canterbury, South Canterbury and West Coast regions Figure 19 - Log production and timber processing chain in the Canterbury region Figure 20 - Meat origin and processing chain in the Canterbury region Figure 21 - Canterbury Regional Council kill data by year (1990-2012) (total graded tonnes compared to the amount graded for local consumption and export) Figure 22 - Trend in exported graded kill data (trend from 1990-2012) Figure 23 - Dry bulk trade and forecasts for the LPC Figure 24 - Destinations for dry bulk freight imported through the LPC Figure 25 - Historical trade in dry bulk commodities for the LPC Figure 26 - Destinations for petroleum imports through LPC Figure 27 - Petroleum imports and forecasts for the LPC Figure 28 - Petroleum production (Pj) at Marsden Point Refinery in 2011 Figure 29 - Annual percentage change in production by product type at Marsden Point Refinery, 2001-11 Figure 30 - Total commercial aircraft movements Christchurch Airport, Financial Years 2010-2013 Figure 31 - Alternate forecast growth in petroleum imports compared to the historical trend and the GCTS estimates Figure 32 - Origins of logs in the Canterbury region exported through LPC

Page | 4 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 21

Figure 33 - Forecast growth and trend in logs as outlined in the GCTS Figure 34 - Origins for coal exported through LPC Figure 35 - Forecast growth in coal volumes through LPC, as outlined in the GCTS Figure 36 - Alternate forecast growth in coal volumes through LPC compared to that outlined in the GCTS Figure 37 - Origins of high value, time sensitive air freight exported through Christchurch International Air- port Figure 38 - Destinations for high value, time sensitive air freight imported through Christchurch International Airport Figure 39 - Christchurch International Airport air freight historical volumes Figure 40 - Infrastructure Spend Profile

Tables Table 1 - GCTS assumptions and forecast summary Table 2 - Summary of 2006/07 freight movements into, out of and within the Canterbury region, after imports and exports have been excluded (million tonnes) Table 3 - CDC data released May 2012 – “On the Move: The Christchurch Rebuild” Table 4 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041)

Page | 5 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 22

Page | 6 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 23

Section 1 Introduction

Page | 7 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 24

Page | 8 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 25

1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose of Study The Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) partnership was formed in 2012 and consists of members from New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, Lyttelton Port Company Limited (LPC), Christchurch International Airport Limited (CIAL), Christchurch City Council (CCC), Selwyn and Waimakariri District Councils, Environment Canterbury and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA). This partnership has collectively estimated freight growth forecasts for the Greater Christchurch region and has commissioned Aurecon to validate these forecasts and explore options to improve and increase the resilience of freight logistics across Greater Christchurch to respond to this growth. As part of the wider package of works commissioned, a Freight Demand Statement is to be developed outlining the current and future freight demand in Greater Christchurch. The Freight Demand Statement will lead on to the development of a Freight Infrastructure Statement. This document will provide the partnership with a view on the capacity of the freight movement infrastructure and its interaction with the current or future supply chains. Finally, a Freight Management Directions Statement will identify interventions and improvements to optimise the capability and resilience of the existing freight infrastructure.

Freight Demand Statement Origins and Commodities Freight hubs and Validation of forecast destinations generation points growth

Freight Infrastructure Statement Current capacity assessment Assessment of Infrastructure Key constraints and improvement and supply chain capability opportunities

Freight Management Directions Statement Measures to optimise capacity Options for land use Soft and hard improvement responses measures

Figure 1 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components

1.2 Aims of the Freight Demand Study This document is known as the Freight Demand Statement. It is a desktop review of information, data and forecasts from a variety of sources (some public and some private). While the overall Greater Christchurch Freight Study will seek to develop options to improve infrastructure and capacity, remove bottlenecks in supply chain efficiency and propose measures that would focus actions to maximise the economic development of the region. The Freight Demand Statement seeks to provide the understanding and estimated future freight volumes to underpin the following stages. It has the following aims: • Current freight system. A statement of the current state and nature of the freight system. This will include: descriptions of commodities imported, exported or moving through Greater Christchurch; existing freight infrastructure, including freight hubs and key points of freight consolidation (Section 3). Constraints and

Page | 9 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 26

capacity for growth will not be considered in the Freight Demand Statement, but will be detailed in the Freight Infrastructure Statement. • Freight origins and destinations. For each commodity that is considered in this statement, the likely or known origins and destinations will be described. These will include both production and processing points, entry and exit points in the study area and current mode of transport. Details will be given by commodity type where possible (Section 5 to Section 10 for different commodities). • Hazardous goods. Assess the travel demand for hazardous and over-dimensional goods travelling to and from the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (Section 7). Constraints on the movement of hazardous goods will be further discussed in the Freight Infrastructure Statement. • Validated growth forecasts. Validate freight growth assumptions, by commodity, from the GCTS. Where these forecasts are inappropriate, provide alternative growth forecasts detailing the rationale and explanations for the predicted growth (Section 3 through to Section 10, summarised in Section 12). The validated forecasts, where appropriate, should include an understanding of land-use where freight generation is permitted and possible future changes to that land-use. This statement contains particular commentary for supply chains, modes, origins and destinations and forecasts for each of the major commodities imported and exported through Greater Christchurch. It does not seek to give higher importance to commodities that offer higher value, more volume, or greater prospects of maximising regional economic growth. These issues are extremely important and will be considered in subsequent stages of the overall study. In the next 12 months, a considerable ramp-up of construction activity in the region is expected, following the damage experienced in the February and June 2011 earthquakes. The heightened construction activity is expected to continue for up to 10 years; it is therefore likely to have a significant impact on the importation and transport of construction materials into and within the area. For the validation of the individual commodity forecasts, the increase associated with any heightened construction activity will be excluded, as it is assumed that the future movements will return to the underlying individual growth trends. Activity and transport associated with the Christchurch rebuild is discussed in Section 12. 1.3 Map of Greater Christchurch, Canterbury and the South Island The Freight Demand Statement is aimed at quantifying and validating future freight forecasts for Greater Christchurch. To this end, understanding freight production (and consumption) in Canterbury, and even the whole of the South Island, is important. For the purposes of this study, Greater Christchurch is defined as Christchurch City, extending outwards to include the commuter belt (approximately a 30 minute drive) in the Selwyn and Waimakariri Districts (Figure 2). This definition is consistent with the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy (2007) [35] and available online definitions [31, 32]. Note that since this is not a proper statistical boundary, Statistics New Zealand (StatsNZ) will not be able to provide data to match this area precisely.

Page | 10 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 27

Figure 2 - Greater Christchurch boundary shown in the context of the wider definition, which includes Selwyn and Waimakariri districts

The Greater Christchurch region, as defined for this statement, is part of the Canterbury region on the South Island of New Zealand. It is important to understand the significance of these larger regions from the perspective of the movement of freight.

Page | 11 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 28

Figure 3 - Canterbury and its position on the South Island

Page | 12 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 29

1.4 Assumptions of the Greater Christchurch Transport Statement One of the primary aims of the Freight Demand Statement is the validation of the freight forecasts, as provided in the Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) [31]. The GCTS provides an overarching framework for a consistent and integrated approach to planning and implementing the transport network and services for the Greater Christchurch area. The GCTS sets out some 30 year assumptions on population, households, employment, person trips and freight movements. These assumptions are summarised in Table 1. 30 Year Assumption Measure or commodity 2010 2013 2041 Growth Population 435,000 550,000 0.9% Employment 200,000 244,000 0.7% Containers (TEU) 290,000 351,217 1,500,000 *5.3% Air Freight (tonnes) 120,000 400,000 7.5% Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 649,365 1,200,000 2.6% Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,111,189 1,800,000 2.6% Logs (tonnes) 250,000 369,657 260,000 0.1% Coal (tonnes 2,300,000 2,049,949 5,000,000 3.8%

Table 1 - GCTS assumptions and forecast summary * Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other rates are based on annual linear growth) Source: Greater Christchurch Transport Statement [31]

As shown above, over the period from 2010 to 2041, population and employment are assumed to grow by 26% and 22% respectively, while freight is expected to increase by considerably higher amounts (for example, 417% for port containers). Primarily, this document will validate these growth assumptions, by comparing forecast growth to historical trends for each of the commodities, in addition to giving consideration to changes in productive land use in the Greater Christchurch area.\ 1.5 Uncertainty Forecasting growth in population, employment, freight movements and the economy under normal circumstances is difficult. This is because each of these can be influenced, to a smaller or larger degree, by factors that cannot be reliably forecast (e.g. the Global Financial Crisis). Forecasts for Greater Christchurch, and even the Canterbury regions, are made more difficult because of the significant earthquake events of 2011 and earlier. These events dramatically altered normal growth, in that immediately following the earthquakes, there were significant changes to population and employment, the primary demand drivers for freight activities. The resumption of ‘normal’ population and employment growth is difficult to predict, no more evident than that shown in possible population forecasts developed for the UDS (Figure 4).

Page | 13 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 30

Figure 4 - Alternative number of household forecasts Source: UDS, GCTS supporting information [32] All of these factors and uncertainties will make precise estimation and validation of commodity growth very difficult; this should be considered in the interpretation of the validation results. While the export of freight is less likely to be driven by population and employment changes as the result of the earthquakes, there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of future volumes, caused by the overseas demand and the international competitiveness of New Zealand exports. 1.6 Forecast validation The Freight Demand Statement provides a validation of individual commodity forecasts from the GCTS. This should be taken in the context of an appreciation of the uncertainty of future population and employment growth and the impact that could have on internal consumption, as well as import and export volumes. To undertake this validation, Aurecon has, in the majority of cases, compared the GCTS forecast to the linear trend of historic volumes, as well as any other available forecast. The use of linear growth, as opposed compound growth, is consistent with observed historical volumes, but where a case for compound growth is made (i.e. containerised imports and exports through LPC) Aurecon will establish the consequences of that growth assumption. When considering future volumes, we made reference to changing land use, including the increasing use of irrigation, and likely trends in imports and movement of materials associated with the Christchurch re-build. Where appropriate, Aurecon will put forward a forecast range, indicating likely high and low bounds for future freight movements. Aurecon has not put a forecast range on every commodity, as without further more detailed

Page | 14 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 31

investigation (which is beyond the scope of this project) bounds would need to be set arbitrarily. 1.7 Report structure The Freight Demand Statement has the structure shown below. The structure is designed to describe and document the major commodities either produced in, or moving through, the Greater Christchurch region:

Section 3 National Freight Demand Study. This section contains a brief summary of the 2014 National Freight Demand Study (NFDS) in the context of this study. Section 4 Population. This section compares the forecast GCTS population to historical trends in the area. In addition, population trends for Canterbury and the South Island are also described, to provide context for the demand for (in particular) import containers. Section 5 Employment. This section contains a comparison of the historical and forecast employment trends for Greater Christchurch and, as with population, it describes employment trends for both Canterbury and the South Island. Section 6 Container trade. This section validates the GCTS projections of growth for import and export containers through the LPC. For the major import and export commodities, more detailed analysis and projections are shown, to provide a more in-depth perspective of growth. Section 7 Air freight. This section contains a comparison and validation of the volume of freight imported and exported through the Christchurch International Airport. Major commodities are briefly discussed. Section 8 Import dry bulk. This section describes the types of dry bulk commodities that are imported through the LPC, with their destinations. It then provides a comparison and validation of historical volumes and those proposed in the GCTS. Section 9 Import petroleum. This section describes the types of petroleum commodities that are imported through the LPC and their destinations. It then provides a comparison and validation of historical volumes and those proposed in the GCTS. Section 10 Export logs and timber. This section shows the quantity of logs exported through the LPC and the origins. It then provides a comparison and validation of historical volumes and those proposed in the GCTS. Section 11 Export coal. This section describes the volume of coal that is exported through the LPC and its origins. It then provides a comparison and validation of historical volumes and those proposed in the GCTS. Section 12 Internal freight movements. This section outlines the internal freight movements (specifically those into, out of and within Canterbury) as outlined in the NFDS. Section 13 Canterbury recovery. This section contains an overview of the Canterbury recovery, particularly the additional construction materials and transport activity, which will influence short-term freight movements. Section 14 Concluding remarks. This section summarises the information presented in Sections 3 to 14, in the context of providing a reliable set of overarching freight demands, to be used in subsequent project stages. Section 15 Glossary. This section contains a description of commonly used acronyms and terms used throughout the Freight Demand Statement. Section 16 References. This section contains a set of references and citations used in the collating of information used to compare and validate the freight forecasts proposed in the GCTS.

Page | 15 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 32

Page | 16 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 33

Section 2 National Freight Demand Study

Page | 17 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 34

Page | 18 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 35

2. National Freight Demand Study

The National Freight Demand Study (NFDS), March 2014, updates the previous study undertaken in 2008. The study examines the New Zealand freight task in detail, considering 29 commodities and examines: • The total size of the market and the regional distribution of freight activities; • Determines linkages between the locations where goods are produced or imported and where they are consumed or exported. The updated NFDS notes that as the study was undertaken at commodity level, there is variability in the growth rates for commodities – some commodities growing slower than underlying economic growth and their historical trends. The NFDS refers to this as ‘decoupling of freight from economic growth’. The report goes on to state: “Commodities which grow at a rate below GDP growth are largely those where historical trends have indicated that population growth, rather than economic growth, is the most important driver of demand. Industries where population growth is a major component of the forecast are: logs to sawmills, inputs to panel making, inputs to pulp and paper, sawn timber, pulp and paper, panels, manufactures goods, supermarkets and food goods, imported vehicles, coal and steel and aluminium and general freight. For some other commodities (other retail goods, grain, other minerals, couriers and post) decoupling involves a downwards adjustment to the level of growth that would be expected from historical trends. In these cases the downwards adjustment results in growth rates moving towards a one for one relationship with GDP over time” Taken together, these two effects mean that the relationship between GDP growth and freight growth in the forecasts is not as strong as has been seen in historical data”. The NFDS goes on to state growth projections by region through to 2042. Overall, it expects the freight task, in terms of tonnage, to increase by 58% over a 30 year period up to 2042. There are both commodity and regional variations in this increase, with the freight task in Canterbury forecast to increase from approximately 35m tonnes to around 70m tonnes by 2042. This reflects both the growth in dairy and dairy relates exports in Canterbury, and the importance of Christchurch in the context of South Island distribution of goods. The NFDS does not include repositioning of empty containers. However, empty containers are an important consideration in this study. The GCTS forecast does include the empty containers. Between 2008 and 2013, full export containers have increased by 84% while empty import containers increased by 73%.

Page | 19 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 36

Page | 20 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 37

Section 3 Population

Page | 21 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 38

Page | 22 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 39

3. Population This section contains a validation of the population growth assumed in the GCTS. It draws upon population data from various sources (quoted in each case). We have also considered population forecasts, not just for Greater Christchurch, but also for Canterbury and the whole of the South Island. In this way, we are able to compare and contrast with other regions that are likely to affect freight moving through Greater Christchurch. 3.1 Population by area Figure 5 shows the population areas for Greater Christchurch, Canterbury and the South Island. Greater Christchurch by itself only covers 4% of the South Island, but includes 42% of the population; Canterbury (including Greater Christchurch) has over 54% of the South Island population. The most populated areas outside Greater Christchurch are: Allenton in Canterbury; Richmond East and West in Tasman; Redwoodtown in Marlborough; and Caversham in Otago.

Figure 5 - Population in Christchurch and the South Island (2006) Source: StatsNZ Census 2006

Page | 23 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 40

3.2 Population growth comparison Figure 6 and Figure 8 show the growth in population for Greater Christchurch, Canterbury and the South Island. These figures are based on information provided by StatsNZ [68].

Figure 6 - Population and forecasts for Greater Christchurch 1 Source: StatsNZ Census [68], GCTS [31,32]

As shown above, the forecast population growth, as provided by StatsNZ, is considerably slower than the underlying trend for the past 10 years. The forecast growth for GCTS, however, is consistent with that for StatsNZ. As mentioned previously, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the growth in population over the long-term in Christchurch, which will need to be monitored to determine its accuracy.

1 Because the Greater Christchurch area does not have an official statistical boundary, for the purposes of the comparison with StatsNZ data, Greater Christchurch is taken to include the whole of the Selwyn and Waimakariri regions. This explains the difference between the Greater Christchurch historic data and the GCTS forecast in the year 2010.

Page | 24 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 41

Figure 7 - Population and forecasts for Canterbury Source: StatsNZ Census [68]

Figure 8 - Population and forecasts for the South Island Source: StatsNZ Census [68]

Page | 25 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 42

In a similar way to the population growth in Greater Christchurch, the rates of growth for both Canterbury and the whole of the South Island, are considerably slower than the past 10-year trend. Of the three regions being examined, Greater Christchurch is showing the strongest growth, at around 0.8% per annum average linear growth. 3.3 Conclusion The official StatsNZ and GCTS forecasts for Greater Christchurch show an amount of consistency (and also consistency with historic growth). Therefore, for the purposes of the Freight Demand Statement, Aurecon believes they are acceptable. We understand that the StatsNZ Census 2012 information will be released in early 2014 which have not been taken in to consideration in this report.

Page | 26 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 43

Section 4 Employment

Page | 27 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 44

Page | 28 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 45

4. Employment by area This section contains the validation of employment forecasts for the Greater Christchurch region, as presented in the GCTS. As with population estimates, differences between the definition of Greater Christchurch in the GCTS and the wider definition that includes the Selwyn and Waimakariri regions (for StatsNZ), will result in small differences in the comparisons. 4.1 Employment by area Figure 9 shows the employment areas for Greater Christchurch, Canterbury and the South Island. Consistent with the population information, Greater Christchurch has the most significant employment base, at 41% of the total for the South Island, and Canterbury (including Christchurch) a total of 53%. This compares to the next highest region, Otago, which has only 20% of total South Island employment. As shown in this figure, the areas with the highest total employment outside Greater Christchurch are:Allenton in Canterbury; Richmond East and West in Tasman; Wairau in Marlborough; and Wanaka in Otago.

Figure 9 - Employment in Christchurch and the South Island (2006) Source: StatsNZ Census 2006.

Page | 29 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 46

4.2 Employment growth comparison Again, similar to population actuals and forecasts, we have prepared a comparison of employment for Greater Christchurch, as well as the Canterbury region and the South Island. In this way, a comparison can be made, to determine whether the different regions are exhibiting consistent or significantly different growth profiles. Comparisons are shown in Figure 10 (Greater Christchurch) and Figure 11 (Canterbury and South Island). We were not able to source employment forecasts for Canterbury and the South Island. Consequently, we can only include commentary on historical trends.

Figure 10 - Employment and forecasts for Greater Christchurch 2 Source: StatsNZ [68], GCTS [31,32]

2 Because the Greater Christchurch area does not have an official statistical boundary, for the purposes of the comparison with StatsNZ data, Greater Christchurch is taken to include the whole of the Selwyn and Waimakariri regions. This explains the difference between the Greater Christchurch historic data and the GCTS forecast in the year 2010.

Page | 30 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 47

Figure 11 - Employment and trends for Canterbury and South Island Source: StatsNZ [68]

As shown above, employment trends for the GCTS are considerably lower than the historical trend. Given the projected population growth of 0.8% (Figure 6) for Greater Christchurch, the employment growth of 0.71%, while lower, is not appreciably different. Employment in the wider Canterbury region, as well as the South Island, is showing marginally lower overall growth compared to the Greater Christchurch region, in line with our observations for employment. 4.3 Conclusion According to the GCTS, employment growth in the Greater Christchurch region is likely be considerably slower than historical growth, but is consistent with the projected population growth described previously. Given the uncertainty surrounding population and employment growth in the short term, the GCTS employment growth estimates can appropriately be taken as a basis for the Freight Demand Statement, but they should be reviewed should other information and data become available.

Page | 31 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 48

Page | 32 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 49

Section 5 Containers

Page | 33 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 50

Page | 34 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 51

5. Containers

The LPC is the largest of the five ports on the South Island that import and export containers. alidatingV the growth for containers, however, is more difficult than for individual commodity types (as described in later sections). This is because containers can carry a variety of different commodities, with the trade in each one quite likely growing at a different rate. In addition, there are too many different commodities to allow forecasts of individual growth rates. In this section therefore, we give an overview of the total container trade, which includes import containers, export containers and empty containers. For the initial validation, we compare the historical growth in container movements with the GCTS forecast growth. We then drill-down to the major commodities that make up the full import and export containers.

5.1 General information As well as importing full containers to be used in the region and exporting full containers carrying commodities produced in the region, LPC imports and exports empty containers (referred to as repositioning) and is used as a transhipment point for coastal shipping. Figure 12 shows the approximate breakdown of handling types for the 2012-13 financial year. Based on data supplied by LPC, full export containers have been growing faster than the other types since 2006.

Figure 12 - Container types handled by the LPC Source: Figs 2012-13.

Page | 35 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 52

Of the import containers moving through LPC, approximately 20% are carried by rail and the remaining 80% by road. Also, 35% of containerised exports arrive at LPC by rail and the remainder by road. 5.2 Container growth comparison Figure 13 shows a comparison of historical container trade through the LPC, the projection of the underlying trend and the forecast growth assumptions from the GCTS / LPC

Figure 13 - Container trade and forecasts for the LPC Source: LPC annual reports [50-60], GCTS [31,32] assuming compound growth

As shown above, based on the GCTS forecast of 1.5m TEU by 2041, and assuming compound growth (in line with LPC discussions), there is a gap between the linear trends, which naturally increases over time. The compound forecast is evidenced on historical relationships in other ports between container growth and GDP, industry assumptions and is supported by historical high growth in the dairy export industry in the Canterbury region. The case for a high growth rate for LPC also takes into account its ability to capture a higher market share for the South Island, based on future desirability to cater for large ships. Port rationalisation (and associated discussion) is beyond the scope of this statement. To test the validity of the GCTS growth assumptions, Aurecon has undertaken some additional analysis of the major commodities being shipped (including dairy), to better understand whether the projected growth could be attained.

Page | 36 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 53

5.3 Import commodities and trends This section contains additional information about containerised commodities imported through the LPC. Figure 14 shows a breakdown of the top 10 import commodities.

Figure 14 - Containerised commodities imported through the LPC 2011/12 Source: LPC [61]

As shown above, ‘general’ freight makes up the majority (71.7%) of the import freight, with the remaining 28.3% made up of lots of small quantities of commodities. Given the lack of proper classification, and based on an understanding of the types of products that often get categorised as ‘general’, Aurecon believes that the majority of the imports are ‘finished goods’. Unlike individual commodities, which are produced or consumed in one or more small regions, ‘finished goods’ most often go to wholesale and retail businesses, destined for built-up population areas. Given that containers are also imported through SouthPort, Port Otago, PrimePort Timaru and Port Nelson, containers imported through the LPC (or the freight inside them) are likely to be transported mainly to the Canterbury region (Figure 15).

Page | 37 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 54

Figure 15 - Estimated destinations for containerised freight imported through the LPC

Page | 38 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 55

As part of this project, Aurecon was unable to collate information about the historical growth for containers imported through the LPC, so it is not possible to determine whether the movements of full import containers will grow in line with overall trade forecasts. 5.4 Conclusions The amount of available data for this desktop review does not really provide the necessary level of detail, either on actual import commodities, or the historical growth in import containers as compared to export containers. In our opinion, it is hard to imagine that import containers will be able to grow at 5.3% compounding per annum, when population and employment for the whole South Island are growing at less than 1.0%. 5.5 Export commodities and trends This section contains additional information about containerised commodities exported through the LPC. Figure 16 shows a breakdown of the top 10 export commodities. Unlike import commodities, the information for export commodities is much more detailed.

Figure 16 - Containerised commodities exported through the LPC 2012/11 Source: LPC [61] As shown in this figure, dairy and timber, general cargo and meat are the largest export products (by number of TEUs exported). For dairy, timber and meat, we have undertaken some further analysis of the origins of the products, explained their supply chains in the context of the LPC and investigated projected commodity growth.

Page | 39 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 56

5.6 Dairy containerised exports In the Canterbury region, dairy products are produced at Fonterra plants at Darfield and Clandeboye, the Westland Milk Product plant at Hokitika and Synlait’s plant at Dunsandel. Milk is trucked from farms in Hokitika south and west to Canterbury, processed into finished goods, such as milk powders, cheese and butter, then packed into containers and, mainly, railed to LPC. Less than half of the dairy containers transit via City Depot.

Figure 17 - Milk and dairy production and processing chain in the Canterbury region

Page | 40 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 57

According to DairyNZ [69], the region including North and South Canterbury and the West Coast produced 348 million kilograms of milk solids in 2011-12, up from 257 million kilograms in 2008-09. The historical figures and trend forecast are shown in Figure 18.

Figure 18 - Milk solid production and trend for the North Canterbury, South Canterbury and West Coast regions Source: DairyNZ Statistics 2008-09 to 2011-12 [69]

Significant increases in irrigated land area over the past five years have helped support substantial growth in agricultural production in and around Canterbury. Since 2007, the area of irrigated land in Canterbury has increased by 60,000 hectares [70]. A study commissioned by the Canterbury Development Corporation (CDC), completed by the Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit (AERU), found a total irrigable land area of 1.1 million hectares, which includes the currently irrigated land of 0.5 million hectares. This gives a clear indication that continued significant growth in the dairy industry is possible (but not guaranteed). Environmental Canterbury (ECan) policies on effluent disposal may also have an impact on continued growth. Higher yields of milk solids per cow and increased areas of irrigated land for dairy farming over the past 5-10 years have produced a steady increase in overall milk solid production. This equates to 3.8 times the milk solid production (with a doubling of the available irrigable land) between 2011 and 2041 if this growth continues. This does, however, fall short of overall container movement growth (5.2 times between 2011 and 2041). 5.7 Timber According to the NFDS (2008) [9], New Zealand is home to approximately 2 million hectares of plantation forestry. Of this, 6.0% is located in Canterbury [9]. Logs are transported to timber and paper mills for production, or direct to port for export. A number of log processing facilities are located in Canterbury and are supplied by logs from all over the South Island. Locations of woodlots and processing plants are included in the section on Logs, Section 10 page 42. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry released Canterbury Forest Industry and Wood Availability Forecasts in 2007 [62]. These forecasts indicate that, beyond 2017 there is the potential for the harvested volumes of Radiata

Page | 41 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 58

Pine and Douglas Fir to increase significantly in the Canterbury region, as existing woodlots planted in the 1990s reach maturity.

Figure 19 - Log production and timber processing chain in the Canterbury region

Based on details provided in the Wood Availability Forecast document, it is difficult to forecast log production and subsequent containerised wood exports. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry document indicates that wood availability in Canterbury will remain constant through to approximately 2020 and then quickly double. It will then remain stable until 2035-2040. This is further detailed in Section 8 on Logs. 5.8 Meat The majority of livestock movements are within individual regions of the South Island, reflecting the movement of livestock from the farm to point of processing [19].

Page | 42 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 59

Figure 20 - Meat origin and processing chain in the Canterbury region Once processed, the vast majority of this product is packed for export, as shown in Figure 21. For example, 78.0% of livestock slaughtered in Canterbury in 2012 was graded and packed for export (approximately 153 million kg [68]).

Page | 43 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 60

Figure 21 - Canterbury Regional Council kill data by year (1990-2012)

(total graded tonnes compared to the amount graded for local consumption and export) Source: StatsNZ [68]

This industry is very seasonal and highly susceptible to changes in the climate, with production in 2011 and 2012 being lower than other years due to drought. Once processed, meat products are either packed into containers for export, or distributed around New Zealand (primarily to Auckland and surrounds due to its large population base) for domestic consumption [68]. Analysis of the export grade data indicates minimal growth since 1990 (1.0% linear growth per annum).

Figure 22 - Trend in exported graded kill data (trend from 1990-2012) Source: StatsNZ [68]

Page | 44 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 61

5.9 Conclusion The analysis of historical movements of import and export containers through the LPC has shown strong linear growth, equating to approximately 4.8% annual linear growth if it continues. This is strong growth by normal accounts, but is significantly lower than the GCTS projected growth in container movements of 5.3% compound. Analysis of the major import and export commodities does not by itself support this higher growth profile. In fact, the production of milk solids (the foundation for New Zealand’s biggest export sector) in the Canterbury and West Coast regions (if continuing to grow at the current rate) is only expected to grow to 3.8 times 2011 volumes by 2041. This contrasts to overall growth in container movements over the same period of 5.2 times, although this may allow for empty import containers too. The top-down approach that forecasts can be based on observed correlation between container growth and economic factors is an important linkage, but to be sustained in the LPC case, it would need to be supported by higher international and domestic imports (possibly as a result of lower levels of manufacturing on the South Island), strong growth in exports (e.g. dairy) and possibly changes to transport structures on the South Island. This may include LPC gaining additional import and export market share (as a result of a deeper port and larger ships), and increased transhipments (LPC acting as a shipping hub for the South Island). As these things are possible, Aurecon believe that the GCTS container forecast of 5.3% compound is aspirational, whereas steady linear growth of 4.8% (Figure 13) is likely to be conservative. Consequently, for the purposes of this Freight Demand Statement, a range of forecasts (upper and lower bound) is appropriate.

Page | 45 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 62

Page | 46 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 63

Section 6 Imported dry bulk commondities

Page | 47 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 64

Page | 48 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 65

6. Imported dry bulk commodities

The LPC is the largest of the five ports on the South Island that import Dry bulk materials are imported through the LPC, the most significant commodities being cement, fertiliser and gypsum. Other export dry bulk commodities, such as logs and coal, are discussed separately in Sections 8 and 9. Exports of other traditional bulk commodities (e.g. grain) through LPC use containers and are discussed in Section 5. 6.1 Dry bulk growth comparison Figure 23 shows a comparison of historical imports of dry bulk trade through the LPC, the projection of the underlying trend and the forecast growth assumptions from the GCTS.

Figure 23 - Dry bulk trade and forecasts for the LPC Source: Historical (LPC annual reports [50-60])

As shown above, trade in dry bulk is highly volatile from year to year, slightly trending down over the past 10 years. The GCTS shows steady and sustained growth of 2.9%. Understanding the individual commodities will help determine whether the projected GCTS growth is achievable.

Page | 49 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 66

6.2 Dry bulk commodities and trends This section contains an overview of the destinations of dry bulk commodities imported through the LPC. In cases where the destination is not definitely known, but the use is, then destinations are estimated, based on land-use or land zoning (cement, lime, plaster and concrete product manufacturing, as well as agricultural industries).

Figure 24 - Destinations for dry bulk freight imported through the LPC As shown in above, there is strong demand for dry bulk commodities in northern and southern Canterbury, with significant employment in urban areas Allerton, Hampton and Tinwald, and in the regional areas Waihao, Mt Somers and Hurunui.

Page | 50 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 67

Figure 25 - Historical trade in dry bulk commodities for the LPC Source: LPC annual reports (with Aurecon estimates of individual commodities where not specified, [50-60]) As shown above, fertiliser imports contribute the majority to dry bulk, but also show the highest variability. The drop experienced in fertiliser trade in 2009, contributes to the overall flatness of growth shown in Figure 23. 6.2.1 Cement Currently cement is imported by Holcim and Golden Bay Cement via coastal shipping, from their production points at Westport and Whangarei. Holcim stores this cement at its site located at LPC. Recent media statements have indicated that Holcim will close its Westport plant in approximately two years and will instead import cement. The new cement import terminal is to be constructed at PrimePort Timaru to store and process this commodity for distribution throughout New Zealand. This processing facility would have the capacity to handle 1.0 million tonnes of cement a year. There will be no change to import volumes going through Lyttelton. 6.2.2 Fertiliser and gypsum Fertiliser and gypsum are mainly used in primary industries, to promote growth in feed for cattle and/or agricultural crops. The LPC imports the largest quantity of fertiliser and gypsum for the South Island (SouthPort also imports a significant amount) and therefore the distribution of destinations is likely to extend from the north through to Otago in the south (as illustrated in Figure 24). Any future growth in fertiliser and gypsum is likely to be driven by changes and growth in the agricultural sector and future irrigation strategies being developed, particularly for the Canterbury region. 6.3 Conclusion The forecast growth proposed in the GCTS is not high, but is significantly different from historical trends in imports of dry bulk products. While cement projections have not been made available for this project (most likely due to commercial sensitivities), Aurecon believes that the GCTS forecast for growth is appropriate to be used for later stages of the project. Fertiliser, gypsum and grain/feed are likely to grow in response to projected growth in agricultural activities and planned irrigation schemes in the Canterbury region.

Page | 51 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 68

Page | 52 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 69

Section 7 Import petroleum

Page | 53 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 70

Page | 54 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 71

7. Import Petroleum

In this section we give an overview of petroleum imports, which includes information on different fuel types where information has been found in the public domain. For the initial validation, we compare the historical growth in fuel imports with the GCTS forecast growth. 7.1 Import petroleum supply chain The production facility for petroleum products in New Zealand is the Marsden Point Refinery (North Island above Auckland). Oil and associated products are imported to Marsden Point for refining.According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the refinery produces petrol, diesel, jet-A1, fuel oil, bitumen and other petroleum products. The majority of these refined products are consumed in New Zealand; in 2011, the refinery supplied approximately 70% of New Zealand’s consumption of oil products [67]. The finished products are transported by coastal tanker to Wellington, Lyttelton or Mt. Maunganui, where they are stored at a storage tank farm, prior to distribution by truck. Some fuel (petrol and diesel) used for transport in New Zealand is also imported directly, mainly from refineries in Asia, the Middle East and the Pacific region. This is a pooled storage system, allowing each of the four major oil companies access to manage their stock levels and coordinate and optimise import shipments. Destinations for petroleum products, shown in Figure 24, are based on demand for petrol (population), diesel (agricultural activities) and aviation fuel (air transport activities) throughout the South Island. Not surprisingly, due to the large centre of population and employment in Canterbury, approximately 27% is destined for Greater Christchurch, with a further 25% for the remainder of the region. By contrast, Tasman, Otago and Southland range from 11-15%. Certain grades of fuels are piped through Mobil’s pipeline from Lyttelton to Woolston, with the remaining fuel taken by tanker through the Lyttelton Tunnel. Prior to the earthquakes, Evans Pass was used by the tankers, but this route requires significant work to bring it back to pre-quake standard. The use of the tunnel is considered a temporary measure until the pass reopens. The tankers take fuel through the tunnel at night during designated periods and, due to the dangerous nature of the goods, under strict conditions. When vehicles carrying hazardous goods require passage through the tunnel, the Tunnel Control Centre will clear the tunnel of all other vehicles, and then allow the vehicle to pass through the tunnel unaccompanied. Typically, 8-30 vehicles carrying hazardous goods use the tunnel each night.

Page | 55 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 72

Figure 26 - Destinations for petroleum imports through LPC

Page | 56 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 73

Certain grades of fuels are piped through Mobil’s pipeline from Lyttelton to Woolston, with the remaining fuel taken by tanker through the Lyttelton Tunnel. Prior to the earthquakes, Evans Pass was used by the tankers, but this route requires significant work to bring it back to pre-quake standard. The use of the tunnel is considered a temporary measure until the pass reopens. The tankers take fuel through the tunnel at night during designated periods and, due to the dangerous nature of the goods, under strict conditions. When vehicles carrying hazardous goods require passage through the tunnel, the Tunnel Control Centre will clear the tunnel of all other vehicles, and then allow the vehicle to pass through the tunnel unaccompanied. Typically, 8-30 vehicles carrying hazardous goods use the tunnel each night. 7.2 Petroleum growth comparison Figure 27 shows a comparison of historical fuel imports (measured in tonnes) through the LPC, the projection of the underlying trend and the forecast growth assumptions from the GCTS.

Figure 27 - Petroleum imports and forecasts for the LPC Source: LPC [50-60], GCTS [31,32] As shown above, the forecast GCTS growth of 2.8% is considerably higher than the past 10-year trend of -1.1%. Information sourced from the 2013 LPC Annual Report [50] indicates that fuel imports have been consistently around 1.0 million metric tonnes for the previous three years (2010 through 2013) and that this is unlikely to change significantly in the future. At face value, the GCTS forecasts are optimistic, however, Aurecon has undertaken some additional analysis of the major fuel types being shipped and consumed (with limited available information), to better understand whether the projected growth could be achieved.

Page | 57 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 74

7.3 Petroleum commodities and trends At the time of writing, no information is available on the breakdown of petroleum imports at LPC into various product types. We have therefore considered the production of various petroleum products at Marsden Point as an indicator for the products imported through LPC (Figure 28). Marsden Point Refinery’s primary outputs are petrol and diesel products. Over the ten-year period to 2011, production of petrol decreased, but was replaced by diesel. Fuel oil accounts for 14% of production and aviation fuel 21%. Other petroleum products include: bitumen, lubricants, solvents, waxes, petroleum coke, white spirit and other liquid fuels (2% of production outputs).

Figure 28 - Petroleum production (Pj) at Marsden Point Refinery in 2011 Source: Energy Data File [67].

Figure 29 - Annual percentage change in production by product type at Marsden Point Refinery, 2001-11 Total petrol - total production of unleaded 91 octane and premium unleaded 95-98 octane. Other petroleum products - bitumen, lubricants, solvents, waxes, petroleum coke, white spirit and other liquid fuels. Source: Energy Data File [67].

Page | 58 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 75

The petroleum imports can be broken down into a number of products, each of which has different drivers and growth patterns. Commentary on each is provided below. • Total Petrol - This unleaded fuel is primarily used to power cars and motorcycles. Increased fuel costs and initiatives to discourage the use of cars on the South Island, are likely to lead to a decrease in petrol consumption, as people seek to save fuel and money by using more sustainable transport modes, such as walking, bicycles and public transport. Between 2001 and 2011, petrol production at Marsden Point decreased by 1.7% per annum, reflecting this trend. • Diesel - This fuel is primarily used by industry to power heavy machinery. It is also used by some vehicle manufacturers to power private vehicles. Diesel consumption in New Zealand is primarily driven by industry. In the Greater Christchurch region, works relating to earthquake recovery have contributed to diesel consumption. Strong growth in dairy production and agriculture in the surrounding areas is also likely to continue, resulting in strong demand for this fuel type in the medium-term. • Aviation fuel - Aviation fuel produced at Marsden Point is consumed at airports throughout New Zealand. Commercial flight numbers at Christchurch International Airport have steadily decreased since the earthquakes (Figure 30). However, the magnitude of any change in aviation fuel demand would depend on the make-up of the fleet (aircraft types), as well as the origins and destinations (routes) of those flights.

The LPC fuel storage also services other airports in the South Island, including Queenstown, Invercargill, Nelson and Dunedin. In aircraft movements and passenger numbers, however, Christchurch International Airport is the largest.

Figure 30 - Total commercial aircraft movements Christchurch Airport, Financial Years 2010-2013 Source: CIAL [713] • Fuel oil. Fuel oil refers to liquid petroleum that can be burned in a furnace or boiler for the generation of heat or power. Marsden Point has increased its production of this product in recent years. • Other products (includes: bitumen, lubricants, solvents, waxes, petroleum coke, white spirit and other liquid fuels). These are produced in relatively small quantities at Marsden Point compared to petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. Bitumen is being used in the earthquake rebuilding program. The production of these commodities has fallen in recent years.

Page | 59 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 76

7.4 Alternative forecast for petroleum imports To establish a more conservative forecast for petroleum imports, we have assumed that: • Split by product type. Petroleum imports to LPC are assumed to be split according to the production proportions at Marsden Point (that is, Total Petrol 29.1% of imports, diesel 36.9%, fuel oil 10.2%, aviation fuel 20.7% and other products 3.0%, based on information from the Energy Data File [67]). • Total Petrol. Growth in this product is linked to growth in population in the region. Population growth is assumed to be 0.7% per annum, consistent with GCTS and StatsNZ estimates [68]. • Diesel, Fuel Oil and other products. Growth in these products is linked to growth in employment in the region. Employment growth is assumed to be 0.7% per annum, consistent with GCTS estimates [31, 32]. • Aviation Fuel. Growth in this product is linked to growth in aircraft movements, particularly at Christchurch International Airport [71]. The long-term growth in aircraft movements is assumed to be only moderate (2% per annum), as the historical information available, showing decreasing flight movements, is impacted by the Christchurch earthquake. Based on these assumptions, we have produced the forecast in Figure 31. This blended forecast results in an annual growth rate of 1.2% per annum.

Figure 31 - Alternate forecast growth in petroleum imports compared to the historical trend and the GCTS estimates 7.5 Conclusion Growth in petroleum imports through LPC is assumed to increase slightly over the coming 30-40 years, primarily driven by gradual increases in population numbers and employment. The alternate forecast indicates that a growth rate of 1.2% per annum may be achieved. However, as more detailed import information becomes available post-earthquake recovery, these forecasts should be reviewed and revised as necessary. Increases in storage at LPC (for example an additional 30 million litres of storage was added by Z Energy in 2011 and it also has resource consent for an additional 25 million litres) appear adequate to meet demand. Fuels are classified as hazardous goods and therefore can only be transported through ytteltonL Tunnel at night, when the tunnel is closed to general traffic. As fuel movements increase they will require additional tunnel capacity at night. This may impact on schedules for maintenance work to be completed in the tunnel, or, alternatively, the maintenance works may affect the ability to move hazardous goods, such as fuel. This will be outlined further in our Freight Infrastructure Statement.

Page | 60 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 77

Section 8 Export logs

Page | 61 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 78

Page | 62 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 79

8. Export logs 8.1 Logs supply chain According to the National Freight Demand Study (2008) [9], New Zealand is home to approximately 2 million hectares of plantation forestry. Of this, 6.0% is located in Canterbury. Logs are transported to timber and paper mills for production, or direct to port for export. For example, approximately 250,000 tonnes of logs were exported in 2011 through LPC [53]. Based on the location of plantation forestry, logs come from all over the South Island and are exported primarily through LPC, but also Port of Napier, PrimePort Timaru and Port Otago. Locations of woodlots are shown in Figure 32

Figure 32 - Origins of logs in the Canterbury region exported through LPC

Page | 63 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 80

8.2 Log growth comparison Historical log exports show a linear growth rate of 10.6% per annum, which is significantly higher than the GCTS forecasts (Figure 33). The GCTS forecasts initially appear low; however, further analysis is provided to explain this difference.

Figure 33 - Forecast growth and trend in logs as outlined in the GCTS Source: LPC, GCTS, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Negligible growth in log exports has been forecast in the GCTS. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), however, released Canterbury Forest Industry and Wood Availability Forecasts in 2007 [72]. These forecasts indicated that, beyond 2017, there is the potential for the harvested volumes of Radiata Pine and Douglas Fir to increase significantly in the Canterbury region, as existing woodlots planted in the 1990s reach maturity. Based on details provided in this document, it is difficult to forecast log exports having a linear growth rate. In fact, the likely scenario, as outlined in the MAF document, is that wood availability in Canterbury will remain constant through to approximately 2020 and then quickly double. It will then remain stable until 2035-2040. The annual linear growth in this MAF forecast is 6.3% between 2010 and 2041, but growth does not occur until the woodlots planted in the 1990s are ready for harvesting in around 2025. 8.3 Conclusion Growth in log exports has increased recently, with developments undertaken at the LPC to increase log storage capacity. Historical trends indicate strong growth in log exports; however, the GCTS forecasts indicate growth in log exports to be negligible to 2041. No reasons are provided for this stagnation in growth other than it represents the cyclical nature of the primary product.

Page | 64 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 81

A desktop review of MAF documentation has indicated that woodlot production capacity in Canterbury is likely to remain relatively constant for the next five to ten years, as trees planted in the 1990s approach maturity and their harvest date. Woodlot production and the logs subsequently available for export are likely to double from approx- imately 2020-2025 and remain stable at that level through to the end of the forecast period. This potential increase in yield is dependent on a number of factors, including: • Size of operators. Many of these woodlots were created by small operators and therefore it is possible that not all of this resource was planted for harvesting. • Harvest planning. Smaller operators are less likely to stick to planned harvesting schedules, making this yield highly variable, as they wait for high log prices for one-off harvests. • International markets. Trends in international wood prices and international demand for New Zealand wood will play an important role in wood and log volumes in Canterbury. • Farming conversion. There is a trend in Canterbury for some existing woodlots to be converted to farming land. Log forecasts should therefore be reviewed as more information becomes available.

Page | 65 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 82

Page | 66 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 83

Section 9 Export Coal

Page | 67 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 84

Page | 68 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 85

9. Export Coal

9.1 Export Coal supply chain According to the National Freight Demand Study (2008) [9], New Zealand The South Island is home to a number of major coal mines. These are primarily owned and operated by Solid Energy, with a number of smaller mines operated by privately-run companies. According to Solid Energy, the Stockton Mine near Ngakawau produces approximately 2 million tonnes of high value coal per year. This mine is expected to continue production at these levels to approximately 2028. Up to six trains per day transport this coal to LPC for export [20]. Operations at Solid Energy’s Spring Creek mine have recently been suspended, impacting on volumes of coal being exported through LPC. Upon this suspension, volumes dropped by approximately 18% during the 2012-13 financial year; after record exports of approximately 2.5 million tonnes had been recorded in 2011-12 [12]. The ROA Mining Company Ltd site in Greymouth is another mine that uses LPC as its export port. This underground mine stockpiles coal at a site in Stillwater, then transports it by rail to LPC for export. The company has not provided details of how many tonnes are produced annually from this site. Figure 34 shows land currently designated for coal mining and the major rail lines used to transport it to LPC.

Figure 34 - Origins for coal exported through LPC

Page | 69 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 86

Figure 35 - Forecast growth in coal volumes through LPC, as outlined in the GCTS Source: LPC, GCTS 9.3 Alternative forecast for coal exports As indicated, coal is transported to LPC exclusively by rail. Current rail siding capacity at LPC for coal trains is 30 wagons, this can be increased to 45 wagons should volumes require it (personal communication). The rail line has capacity for eight trains per day, although current volumes only require five trains a day. Based on the current demand for coal on the international stage, available infrastructure capacity and planned works to increase this over time, it is doubtful that coal exports are likely to reach 5 million tonnes by 2041. It should be noted, however, that coal exports appear quite variable and therefore additional information and renewed forecasting will be required in the future, as commodity prices and worldwide demand change. As an alternative, more conservative, forecast, we have assumed that commodity prices and demand both increase so that coal movements through LPC reach current infrastructure capacity (i.e. eight trains per day of 45 wagons in length). This capacity is approximately 3 million tonnes per annum.

Figure 36 - Alternate forecast growth in coal volumes through LPC compared to that outlined in the GCTS Source: LPC and KiwiRail.

Page | 70 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 87

9.4 Conclusion Estimates indicate that New Zealand’s coal reserves exceed 15 billion tonnes. Total extraction of coal was 4.9 million tonnes in 2011, indicating that mines currently have the capacity to produce this amount; however, current international demand does not support exports at this level. As described previously, coal is transported to LPC exclusively by rail. Current rail siding capacity at LPC for coal trains is 30 wagons, this can be increased to 45 wagons should volumes require it. The rail line has a capacity of eight trains per day, although current volumes only require five trains a day. Based on this information, an alternate forecast has been produced, where it is assumed that coal exports at LPC increase at approximately 1.7% per annum through to 2041. This results in a throughput of 3 million tonnes, with current infrastructure reaching capacity.

Page | 71 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 88

Page | 72 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 89

Section 10 Air freight through Christchurch International Airport

Page | 73 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 90

Page | 74 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 91

10. Air freight through Christchurch International Airport

Christchurch International Airport provides import and export services for high value and time sensitive freight; it also operates as an air base for New Zealand and international governments to supply food and materials for Antarctic scientific research. At the time of writing, the available commodity data is very limited for high value time sensitive air freight in and out of Christchurch, but from a total New Zealand air freight perspective, the biggest import commodities are appliances, machinery and printed materials. Major export commodities are seafood, vegetables, fruit and meat. Adjacent to the main terminal is an existing freight precinct, tenanted by large multi-national transport businesses, such as FedEx and DHL, as well as a number of local operators. A new specialist freight area with an adjacent apron is being established within the airport and is called Dakota Park. Total volumes of freight associated with the Antarctic activities are not clearly understood, but Aurecon is working with authorities to obtain some information to allow an estimate of those volumes. 10.1 Origins and destinations Given that the Christchurch International Airport is the only major airport handling freight on the South Island of New Zealand, the likely origins and destinations for high value, time sensitive air freight would be spread throughout the South Island, in relative proportion to the particular industries or the production of the known high value commodities. Figure 37 shows estimations of origins of time sensitive, high value air freight based on employment levels in the production of meat, seafood and fruit on the South Island. As shown, approximately 56% of this freight would originate within the Canterbury region (with 16% of that from within Greater Christchurch itself). Similarly, initial destinations of appliances, machinery and printed materials are likely to be biased towards wholesale and transport related businesses throughout the South Island. In this case, the majority of destinations would be in Greater Christchurch (75%), and 9% for the remainder of Canterbury. In contrast, Otago, the next largest region, would receive approximately 6% of the volume.

Page | 75 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 92

Figure 37 - Origins of high value, time sensitive air freight exported through Christchurch International Airport

Page | 76 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 93

Figure 38 - Destinations for high value, time sensitive air freight imported through Christchurch International Airport

Page | 77 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 94

Origins for Antarctic freight movements is unknown, but likely to be a combination of locally sourced perishables and other food (probably sourced mainly from Canterbury), equipment flown in from overseas (that may never leave the airport), and equipment imported into New Zealand via LPC. 10.2 Air freight volumes and forecasts Figure 39 shows an account of the current level of high value, time sensitive import and export movements through the Christchurch International Airport and two different forecasts.

Figure 39 - Christchurch International Airport air freight historical volumes Source: Historical (PwC [20], FIGS, 2012-2013 [5]), Forecast (PwC, 2011 [20]), Forecast (GCTS [31,32]) It is important to note that these historical values exclude air freight to Antarctica, but Aurecon is endeavouring to obtain that data from the relevant authorities. As shown in the above figure, there is a significant difference between the forecasts (that may be explained by the Antarctic air freight). The GCTS forecast is significantly higher than the observed freight volumes, and shows significant growth thereafter. Discussions with CIAL have revealed that the quantity of high value, time sensitive freight has been slightly decreasing over time. This is not because of lowering demand, but rather that capacity on existing flights into and out of Christchurch International Airport has been decreasing, due to fewer flights and the use of narrow body aircraft. In the short- to medium-term, CIAL anticipates growth in freight capacity due to increases in flight frequencies, particularly to Australia and Asia. The PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast (‘Opening up the Skies’) is a potential forecast, based on the assumption that the Christchurch International Airport is able to capture market share from Auckland International Airport for freight destined for, or produced on, the South Island. This could be through a possible range of interventions, including the use of wide-body aircraft.

Page | 78 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 95

Currently, other high value, time sensitive freight that cannot be transported from Christchurch International Airport due to available capacity, is transported by road to or from Auckland Airport, which has both the trade routes and higher capacity aircraft. Growth in air freight is likely to be driven by the following factors: • Additional freight capacity. The re-introduction of wide-body planes and projected increases in the frequency of passenger flights, particularly to Australia and Asia, are also likely to drive growth. • Internet sales. Internet sales will continue to grow, which will erode traditional retail market share. Therefore, there is likely to be an increase in small parcel delivery, this could increase the amount of freight transported by air and, possibly, bring down air freight costs. • Growth in aquaculture, meat production, dairy and agriculture. As specified previously, the dairy and agriculture industries (in particular) are likely to exhibit significant growth in Greater Christchurch and Canterbury. Other industries, such as meat production and aquaculture, are also likely to continue to be strong exporters through Christchurch International Airport, particularly to niche markets where fresh New Zealand produce is highly sought after and commands a high price. 10.3 Conclusion Currently, there is not a complete picture of all air freight being imported or exported through Christchurch International Airport, due to the unavailability of Antarctic air freight movement data. While the current reported air freight through Christchurch International Airport is showing a very small rate of negative growth, the lack of available freight capacity is being reported as the reason. At this point, Aurecon believes that the PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast is appropriate to use as a basis.

Page | 79 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 96

Page | 80 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 97

Section 11 Internal freight movements

Page | 81 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 98

Page | 82 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 99

11. Internal freight movements

Information on freight movements within the Greater Christchurch region, or, more broadly, movements across the South Island, is limited in the public domain. The only publicly available information on these movements is the historical data contained in the NFDS (2008) [9]; however, this information is broken down to a Regional Council level, meaning that the finest detail possible for this report is to show movements into, out of and within Canterbury. 11.1 Summary of NFDS (2008) internal movements This information is provided below for the 2006/07 Financial Year only, and no trend information is available. Adjustments have been made to the data to exclude import and export volumes, as outlined in the NFDS (2008), where possible. Therefore, only internal movements, specifically those movements of freight consumed and/or produced in the Canterbury region, are shown and destinations for high value, time sensitive air freight would be spread throughout the South Island, in relative proportion to the particular industries or the production of the known high value commodities. Figure 37 shows estimations of origins of time sensitive, high value air freight based on employment levels in the production of meat, seafood and fruit on the South Island. As shown, approximately 56% of this freight would originate within the Canterbury region (with 16% of that from within Greater Christchurch itself). Similarly, initial destinations of appliances, machinery and printed materials are likely to be biased towards wholesale and transport related businesses throughout the South Island. In this case, the majority of destinations would be in Greater Christchurch (75%), and 9% for the remainder of Canterbury. In contrast, Otago, the next largest region, would receive approximately 6% of the volume. The data provided in the NFDS (2008) [9], describes the various movements along the production chain for a number of commodities. For example, the movement of liquid milk is outlined, showing the movement of milk from the farm to the factory. Approximately 2.21 million tonnes of liquid milk was transported within Canterbury in 2006/07. The production points use this liquid milk to produce dairy products, of which significant amounts are exported (0.12 million tonnes as outlined in the NFDS (2008)). The remaining dairy volumes are transported within Canterbury and to other locations on the South Island. Some dairy product is also sent to the Canterbury region from other locations for domestic consumption. Similar supply chain movements can be seen for logs and timber, with some logs being transported directly to the port for export and some being transported to sawmills for further production. Some of the products created at the sawmills (and board mills) are destined for export markets, with the remainder distributed throughout Canterbury and the South Island for domestic consumption. The NFDS (2008) data indicate that the Canterbury region is a significant producer and consumer of freight; that is, the majority of freight produced in Canterbury is also consumed in that region. The two commodities being transported within the region in significant volumes are liquid milk and aggregates.A significant amount of supermarket and other retailing product is also transported throughout the region.

Page | 83 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 100

Commodity To From Within Import Export Canterbury Canterbury Canterbury Volume Volume Liquid Milk 0.02 0.01 2.21 0.00 0.00 Dairy 0.08 0.05 0.50 0.00 0.12 Export logs and woodchips 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 Logs to sawmills 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 Sawmill outputs to markets 0.24 0.02 0.16 0.00 0.16 Board mills 0.08 0.27 0.27 0.00 0.24 Livestock 0.03 0.08 0.71 0.00 0.00 Processed meat 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.06 Horticulture and grain 0.27 0.81 0.16 0.08 0.11 Aggregates 0.34 0.34 5.97 0.00 0.00 Coal 0.41 0.06 0.01 0.00 2.29 Petroleum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 Steel, scrap and slag and aluminium 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 Limestone, fertiliser and cement 0.25 0.06 1.07 1.02 0.00 Other minerals 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 Supermarkets* 0.18 0.42 0.56 0.00 0.00 Other retailing* 0.31 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.00 Total Freight 2.25 2.35 12.25 2.09 3.28

Table 2 - Summary of 2006/07 freight movements into, out of and within the Canterbury region, after imports and exports have been excluded (million tonnes). Source: NFDS (2008) [9] No information was provided in the NFDS (2008) indicating the proportion of supermarket and other retailing freight that is imported through LPC from international locations.

11.2 Conclusion As is the case with much of the data in this report, information on internal freight movements is limited. We have used information available in the NFDS (2008) to summarise freight movements not related to international imports and exports for Canterbury. This has shown that the major commodities being moved into, out of and within Canterbury are, in order of largest to smallest: 1. Aggregates; 2. Liquid milk; 3. Limestone, fertiliser and cement; 4. Horticulture and grain; and, 5. Supermarket products. The data provided give a historical snapshot only and it has not been possible to provide forecasts for the future movement of this freight in the region; nor has it been possible to determine what proportion of these freight movements occur within the Greater Christchurch region.

Page | 84 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 101

Section 12 Christchurch rebuild

Page | 85 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 102

Page | 86 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 103

12. Christchurch Rebuild

12.1 Christchurch rebuild impact Christchurch is likely to undergo a rapid increase in construction traffic, due to the movement of material associated with the rebuilding work. This construction work is estimated to peak around 2014 to 2017 and may place significant strains on the current freight network in supplying the key building materials and raw materials such as aggregates, concrete and timber. This is likely to be focussed in the CBD, where much of the concentrated re-build will take place.

Figure 40 - Infrastructure Spend Profile Source: Economics Forecasts July 2011 - Guessing how the quake rebuild will pan out 30 June 2011 Suppliers are reported to be expecting increases in business of around 30% during the rebuild. It is vital that the supply chain is able to respond to the needs of construction associated with the rebuild. Although outside the scope of this report, constraints associated with infrastructure and the supply chain should be identified to enable the movement of materials facilitating the rebuild.This aspect will be discussed in more details in subsequent stages of the study. The volumes of material required for the rebuild have been estimated by CERA and are reproduced in Table 3 below. To put this in to the context of goods vehicle movement and to facilitate an assessment of possible impact on the freight network, Aurecon have subsequently broken this data down in to an estimated volume of goods vehicle movements. As can be seen from Figure 42 this represents a significant number of goods vehicle movements even considering they are likely to be spread over a number of years. The following data was released by CDC regarding the estimate of material demand.

Page | 87 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 104

Material Type To From Canterbury Canterbury Aggregate 4,596,977 tonnes Aluminium joinery & glazing 5,133,177 m2 Coloursteel roofing 2,206,101 m2 Concrete 620,710 m3 Floor coverings 2,631,346 m2 Kitchen joinery 11,018 houses Paint 3,900,473 litres Pipe - 150 mm diameter and greater 815,772 m Pipe - 100 mm diameter PVC 303,583 m Plasterboard 6,788,047 m2 Pre-nail trusses 11,793 houses Pre-nail framing 11,762 houses Reinforcing 20,928 tonnes Structural steel 2,857 tonnes

Table 3 - CDC data released May 2012 – “On the Move: The Christchurch Rebuild” Given the possible increase in material costs being driven by demand, it is important that the supply chain and infrastructure are able to react to this as efficiently as possible.This will be discussed in more detail in subsequent stages of the study when infrastructure, the supply chain and key constraints and opportunities for improvement in the freight system are discussed.

Figure 42 - Estimate of goods vehicle movements based on CDC material volumes (m3)

Page | 88 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 105

Section 13 Concluding remarks

Page | 89 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 106

Page | 90 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 107

13. Concluding remarks

13.1 Christchurch’s role in moving freight in New Zealand Due to the large population and employment located in and around Greater Christchurch, as well as the production of export commodities throughout Canterbury, the region plays a critical role in the production of goods for domestic and international markets. As described in this statement, production of a number of major commodities is growing, particularly dairy and other agriculture. Producers are heavily reliant on the efficient movement of their freight from the point of production, through the manufacturing process to the port for export. Inefficiencies in these supply chains, in particular congestion issues relating to road, rail and port access, add costs to businesses and impact more broadly on overall productivity and the nation’s economic health. Current freight demand in the Greater Christchurch region is concentrated primarily on the export of a number of key commodities, including: dairy and milk products, meat products, coal, logs and timber products. Increasingly, these products are transported to LPC by rail, particularly dairy products (transported by rail from Clandeboye, Darfield and Rolleston) and coal (transported by rail from the West Coast). This is putting increasing pressure on existing rail infrastructure and adding to congestion in the Woolston area, around LPC’s City Depot site. Currently all containers transported between the City Depot and LPC use road transport. Imports from LPC through the Greater Christchurch region are commodities such as dry bulk and petroleum. General container freight used for domestic consumption is also imported in significant quantities through LPC. The majority of this freight is transported through Greater Christchurch and the wider Canterbury region and South Island by road.. 13.2 GCTS forecasts The primary aim of this statement has been to analyse and validate the growth forecasts as outlined in the GCTS. Publicly available data has been used to compare trends in historical information to the forecast growth. Where significant differences were encountered for particular commodities, alternate data sources were interrogated and considered, to determine likely reasons for these discrepancies and, if required, to formulate alternate forecasts. This statement does not seek to give higher importance to commodities that offer higher value, more volume, or greater prospects of maximising regional economic growth. These issues are extremely important and will be considered in subsequent stages of the overall study. A comparison of the forecasts outlined in the GCTS and the alternate forecasts provided in this report is shown in Table 4.

30 Year Assumption Measure or commodity 2015 2014 2041 Growth Population 435,000 550,000 0.9% Employment 200,000 244,000 0.7% Containers (TEU) (lower) 290,000 351,217 782,000 5.5% Containers (TEU) (upper) 290,000 1,500,000 5.3%* Air freight (tonnes) 25,000 107,000 10.6% Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 649,365 1,200,000 2.6% Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,111,189 1,371,000 1.2% Logs (tonnes) 250,000 369,657 739,000 6.3% Coal (tonnes) 2,300,000 2,049,949 3,000,000 1.0%

* Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other growth rates are based on annual linear growth)

Page | 91 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 108

The GCTS population growth rate appears to be in line with StatsNZ growth estimates. Because the Greater Christchurch area does not have an official statistical boundary, for the purposes of the comparison with Statistics NZ data, Greater Christchurch is taken to include the whole of the Selwyn and Waimakariri regions. This explains the difference between the Greater Christchurch historic data and the GCTS forecast in the year 2010. The employment growth rate in the GCTS is lower than the StatsNZ estimate. Again, boundary differences make comparisons difficult. We recommend that the population and employment forecasts should be reviewed when new Census information is made available from early 2014. The GCTS growth forecasts appear significantly higher than indicated in historical information available for container trade, dry bulk, petroleum and coal. Analysis of publicly available information for these commodities has shown that the projected growth rates may be aspirational rather than based on historical information and likely trends in land-use and production. For example, container volumes are driven primarily by dairy and meat exports and imports of consumer goods. Analysis of dairy and meat production does show that increases in exports of these products is likely, but is unlikely to be high enough to drive an overall container movement growth of approximately 5.3% compounding per annum. However, the GCTS forecast is likely to consider an increase in South Island share of shipping due to the possibility of allowing larger ships, and this could help increase the overall total. Aurecon therefore have recommended in this case to provide a range of forecasts, a lower bound based on continued strong growth, and an upper bound based on compounding growth that considers these other factors. Similarly, historical information on coal, dry bulk and petroleum movements, does not support the growth rates as outlined in the GCTS. Alternate forecasts are provided for airfreight, based on information outlined in FIGS and the ‘Opening Up the South’ report. Interestingly, the observed figures from these data sources are significantly lower than those provided in the GCTS, but this may be explained by freight destined for Antarctica, for which detailed volume information has not been available at the time of writing. This means that although the growth in airfreight as outlined in the alternate forecast is higher than GCTS, the 2041 volumes are only 25% of those outlined in the GCTS. A higher forecast is provided for logs compared to the GCTS. This is in line with MAF predictions that significant log volumes will become available from approximately 2020, as wood lots planted in the 1990s reach maturity. In the short-term (12 months or so), there is expected to be a considerable ramp-up of construction activity in the region, following the damage experienced in the 2011 earthquakes. This construction activity is expected to continue for up to 10 years; is likely to have a significant impact on transport of construction materials into and within the region. 13.3 Future growth A critical point to highlight is that the growth rates in freight demand for different commodities and freight types are interdependent, as all commodities and freight types are part of the broader freight and logistics supply chain for the region. Positive growth in one commodity may impose constraints on the broader supply chain; just as negative growth will provide added capacity. For example, growth in container freight and related train and truck movements to and from LPC is likely to constrain other trains and heavy vehicles moving coal and bulk goods. The Freight Infrastructure Statement and the Freight Management Direction Statement, to be completed at later stages of this project, will therefore consider this growth in freight demand and its impact on the overall system of freight movement in Greater Christchurch. Proposed solutions will consider the following objectives: • Ensure sufficient capacity is available for freight growth (ports, inland ports, road and rail networks). • Improve or retain supply chain efficiency by lowering supply chain costs and improving transit times. • Efficient and rational capital investment to optimise future investment, minimise duplication and obtain efficiency gains through the achievement of greater scale. • Minimise the impact on the environment, and carbon emissions in particular, by optimising freight movements and increasing the use of rail and coastal shipping, where appropriate. • Ensure Greater Christchurch remains competitive on a national and international scale.

Page | 92 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 109

13.4 Overview of future stages The Freight Demand Statement (this statement) aim is to provide an overview of the movements of freight commodities that move into, out of, or through Greater Christchurch. Necessarily therefore, a lot of the detail contained in this report is centred on the transport of import and export commodities. For each of these commodities, Aurecon has undertaken a validation of the GCTS future forecast, and if necessary, provided an alternative forecast (outlining the assumptions or rationale of the new forecast). Deliberately, this statement has not focussed on what is working well, what is capacity constrained, and what interventions could be undertaken to ensure efficient freight movements in the future.This task will be covered in the next phase of work, the Freight Infrastructure Statement, which will discuss operational aspects and infrastructure used in the transport of freight within or impacting Greater Christchurch. This may cover aspects such as rail capacity on the lines connecting LPC to their markets, port storage capacity, staging/hubbing locations, etc. The final stage is to develop the Freight Management Directions Statement, which, based on demand and infrastructure information from the first two phases, will propose opportunities, future directions and options in relation to infrastructure and policy to ensure capacity issues identified can be managed, with the overall goal of enhancing the economic prosperity and resilience of Greater Christchurch and the Canterbury Region. Again, through necessity of achieving this goal, higher value commodities or commodities contributing to more will take on more importance that the lower value ones.

Page | 93 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 110

Page | 94 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 111

Section 14 Glossary

Page | 95 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 112

Page | 96 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 113

14. Glossary

Term Definition 3PL Third party logistics providers - provide transport services for customers, including storage of freight. Backloading The practice where a container or non-container truck makes a delivery and a collection during the same trip, i.e. truck is laden in both directions. CIAL Christchurch International Airport Limited. Operators of Christchurch International Airport. CHE Container Handling Equipment. This may include gantry cranes, full and empty container handling forklifts, reach stackers and straddle carriers. Consignee A business receiving and unpacking a container for domestic rail movements (for the purposes of this study), equivalent to an importer for international shipping movements. Consignor A business packing and dispatching a container for domestic rail movements (for the purpose of this study), equivalent to an exporter for international shipping movements. Container or shipping Steel boxes designed to carry freight. Maritime containers are often standardised: 20 container feet or 40 feet long and 8 feet wide and high. Domestic containers are much more varied, with lengths including 30, 45, 48 and 53 feet. Container movement A container movement is the collection of a container from one location (e.g. an intermodal terminal) and transporting it to another location (e.g. an importer). De-hire The process of returning an empty container to an empty container park. Empty container park A handling, repair and storage facility for empty containers, usually located close to the port to minimise repositioning costs for shipping lines. Export For the purposes of this study, export refers to the dispatch of containers from a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) by a vessel to an international or mainland coastal destination. Exporter A business operated primarily for the purpose of exporting freight, or providing export-related services to other businesses. Gantry crane A large crane mounted on a platform that usually runs back and forth on parallel tracks (can be rubber tyred or rail mounted) astride the container stacks. These cranes are generally used at a marine or intermodal terminal to load/unload containers from trains or trucks. Hardstand An open ground area with a prepared, hard wearing surface. For the purposes of this report, this includes all surfaced intermodal terminal land including the container stacking area. Hardstand is normally built and rated to take a certain weight, which can dictate stack height. Full container handling Forklift capable of carrying a fully loaded 20 foot or 40 foot container. These forklifts forklift are generally used to transfer fully loaded containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons. Import For the purposes of this study, import refers to the discharge of containers into a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) from an international, or mainland coastal vessel. Importer A business operated primarily for the purpose of importing freight, or providing import-related services to other companies.

Page | 97 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 114

Term Definition Intermodal Movement of containers interchangeably between transport modes (e.g. road and rail), where the equipment is compatible within the multiple systems. Empty container Forklift capable of carrying an empty 20 foot or 40 foot container. These forklifts are handling forklift generally used to transfer empty containers between trucks and empty container storage facilities. Some empty container handling forklifts are able to carry two 20 or 40 foot containers at the same time. Logistics chain A logistics management system that integrates the sequence of activities from delivery of raw materials to the manufacturer, through to the delivery of the finished product to the customer. LPC Lyttelton port of Christchurch. Located in Lyttelton, this is the major gateway port in the Canterbury region and acts as a major trade gateway to the South Island of New Zealand.

Rail terminal operators A business that engages in the loading and unloading of freight and containers on and off trains. Reach Stacker Reach stackers are able to transport containers (both 20 foot and 40 foot, full or empty) short distances very quickly and to stack them in various rows and heights depending on its access and the weight of the container. Reach stackers usually have a higher stacking capacity than forklifts. Using reach stackers, container blocks can be kept 2 deep due to the second row access. Reach stackers are generally used to transfer containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons. Reefer Refrigerated container designed to transport refrigerated or frozen freight. They have their own refrigeration equipment incorporated into the container design. Repositioning Movement of a normally empty container from one location where it is not needed, to another where it is. The export of an empty container is often referred to as repositioning. Stevedore A business that engages in the loading and unloading of cargo vessels at a port. For the purpose of this study, this relates to containerised freight. Straddle carrier A straddle carrier is a non-road going vehicle for use in gateway ports, intermodal terminals and transport yards and is used for stacking and moving standard containers (both full and empty). Straddle carriers pick and carry containers while straddling their load and connect to the top lifting points of the container. Straddle carriers have the ability to stack containers up to 4 high; however, container stacks can only be one container wide with small gaps in between rows. TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit, container counting unit based on the International Standards Organisation, 20-foot by 8-foot container Transhipments To transfer freight or a container from one ship, truck or freight vehicle to another. For the purposes of this study a transhipment refers to the transfer of containerised freight from one train to another, e.g. maritime import container to a domestic train for delivery intrastate or interstate. Transport operator A business that transports containerised or non-containerised freight between two locations, e.g. port and import customer.

Page | 98 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 115

Section 15 References

Page | 99 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 116

Page | 100 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 117

15. References

1. KiwiRail, Statement of Corporate Intent 2013-15, 2012 2. KiwiRail, Annual Report, 2012 3. KiwiRail, The Backbone, 2012 4. KiwiRail, Turn-around plan, 2012 5. Ministry of Transport, Freight Information Gathering System, 2013 6. Ministry of Transport, Government Policy statement on Land Transport Funding 2012/13-2021/22, 2011 7. Ministry of Transport, Connecting NZ, 2012 8. Ministry of Transport, Safer Journeys Work Programme, 2012 9. Ministry of Transport, National Freight Demand Study, 2008. 10. New Zealand Government, National Infrastructure Plan, 2011 11. Ministry of Transport, HPMV Programme, 2012 12. Ministry of Transport, South Island Freight Plan, 2011 13. Ministry of Transport, Roads of national significance, 2013 14. New Zealand Transport Agency, State Highway plan 2013-2014, 2013 15. New Zealand Transport Agency, State Highway Traffic data booklet 08-12, 2013 16. New Zealand Transport Agency, National Land transport programme, 2013 17. New Zealand Transport Agency, Planning and Investment Knowledge base, 2013 18. New Zealand Transport Agency, State Highway Asset Management Plan 2012-2015, 2011 19. New Zealand Transport Agency, Investment and Revenue strategy, 2013 20. Christchurch International Airport Limited, Opening up the South (PWC report), September 2011 21. Christchurch International Airport Limited, Annual report, 2012 22. Christchurch International Airport Limited, Statement of intent, 2012 23. Christchurch International Airport Limited, Master Plan, 2006 24. Environment Canterbury Regional Council, Canterbury Regional Policy Statement 2013, 2011 25. Canterbury Regional Transport Committee, Canterbury Regional land transport programme 2012 - 2022, 2012 26. Canterbury Regional Transport Committee, Canterbury Regional land transport strategy 2012 - 2042, 2012 27. Environment Canterbury Regional Council, Regional Public transport plan 2012, 2011 28. Canterbury Water, Canterbury Water Management Strategy 2009, 2010 29. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, Annual report, 2012 30. Interim Christchurch Network Management Plan, 2012 31. Greater Christchurch Transport, Greater Christchurch Transport Statement, 2012 32. Greater Christchurch Transport, GCTS supporting documents and appendices, 2012 33. Greater Christchurch, Urban Development Strategy 2010, 2010 34. Greater Christchurch, Greater Christchurch Travel Demand Management Strategy and Action Plan, 2012 35. Greater Christchurch, Greater Christchurch Urban Development strategy, 2012 36. Environment Canterbury Regional Council, Draft land use recovery plan 2013, 2013 37. Christchurch City Council, Christchurch city Plan, 2012 38. Christchurch City Council, Christchurch Transport Strategic Plan 2012 - 2042, 2012 39. Christchurch City Council, Christchurch Transport Plan 2012-2042, 2012 40. Christchurch City Council, Christchurch City Long Term Plan and 3 Year Plan, 2012 41. Christchurch City Council, Christchurch City Area Plans, 2012 42. Christchurch Transport activity management plan 43. Selwyn District Council, SDC Transportation Activity Management Plan, 2012 44. Selwyn District Council, SDC long term plan, 2012 45. Selwyn District Council, SDC district plan, 2012 46. Waimakariri District Council, Waimakariri Ten Year Plan 2012-2022, 2012 47. Waimakariri District Council, Waimakariri Roading AMP 2012, 2012

Page | 101 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 118

48. Waimakariri District Council, Waimakariri District plan, 2012 49. Statistics New Zealand, SPP-06-31 tables, 2013 50. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2013 51. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2012 52. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2011 53. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2010 54. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2009 55. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2008 56. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2007 57. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2006 58. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2005 59. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2004 60. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, LPC annual report 2003 61. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch, Commodity 2012 – LPC, 2012 62. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Canterbury Forest and Wood availability Forecasts, 2007 63. Ministry of Transport, Container Port Productivity Report, 2011 64. New Zealand Shippers Council, The question of bigger ships, 2010 65. Solid Energy, Stockton Opencast Mine, 2009 66. Aeru, The Economic Value of Potential Irrigation in Canterbury, 2012 67. Ministry of Economic Development, Energy data file 2011, 2011 68. Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare Data, 2013. 69. DairyNZ Limited, 2012, New Zealand Dairy Statistics 2011-12, Hamilton. 70. Statistics New Zealand, 2012, Agriculture Production Statistics: June 2012, Wellington. 71. Cronshaw, T, 2013, Fonterra opens rail line to Lyttelton port in NZFarmer.co.nz, Fairfax NZ News, http://www. stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/8543975/Fonterra-opens-rail-link-to-Lyttelton-port, viewed 12 September 2013 72. IMIS Integrated Management Information Systems Pty Ltd, 2010, Port of Melbourne and Dynon Rail Terminals 2009 Container Logistics Chain Study, Report Prepared for the Port of Melbourne Corporation, Victorian Department of Transport and the Essential Services Commission, Melbourne. 73. Izone business hub development, http://www.Izone.org.nz/the-development/owners-and-developers/, viewed 18 September 2013 74. MacPherson, L (New Zealand Government Statistician), 2013, Meat and dairy products lead manufacturing fall, media release, Christchurch, 9 September, http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/ manufacturing_and_production/EconomicSurveyofManufacturing_MRJun13qtr.aspx, viewed 10 September 2013, 75. Source: http://www.greaterchristchurch.org.nz/FAQ/

Page | 102 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Demand Statement ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 119

Page | 103 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 1 TO CLAUSE 5 120

Aurecon New Zealand Limited Po Box 1061 Christchurch 8140 New Zealand T + 64 3 366 0821 F + 64 3 3 79 6955 E [email protected] W aurecongroup.com UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 121

Greater Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement

July 2014 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 122

Page | 2 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 123

Contents

Executive Summary 9

1. Introduction 17

2. Summary of freight forecasts 23

3. Infrastructure, land use and freight movement 27

4. Sea Capacity assessment 35

5. Rail Capacity Assessment 53

6. Air Capacity Assessment 61

7. Road capacity assessment 67

8. Supply Chain Assessment 83

9. Concluding Remarks 89

10. Glossary 93

Page | 3 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 124

Figures Figure 1 – Approximate road container capacity - 2041 Figure 2 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components Figure 3– Greater Christchurch transport infrastructure Figure 4 - Lyttelton Port – Import distribution network and tonnage (2010 values). Figure 5 - Lyttelton Port – Export distribution network and tonnage (2010 values). Figure 6 - Export distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values) Figure 7 - Import distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values) Figure 6 - Lyttelton Port of Christchurch layout Figure 7 - Evans Pass route Figure 8 - Dyers Pass route Figure 9 - Gebbies Pass route Figure 10 - Summary of Port storage utilisation metrics against time (shown against upper & lower bound con- tainer throughput) Figure 11 - Summary of Port berth utilisation metrics against time (shown against upper & lower bound container throughput) Figure 12 - Storage utilisation for 2013 and 2041 Figure 13 - Berth Utilisation for 2013 and 2041 Figure 14 - Assumed road container capacity in 2041, Source GCTS supplementary documentation. Figure 15 - Assumed rail container capacity in 2041. Source GCTS supplementary documentation. Figure 16 - Assumed total LPC container throughput 2041. Source GCTS supplementary documentation. Figure 17 - KiwiRail rail lines (in RED) in the Greater Christchurch study area Figure 18 - Predicted growth in train movements by rail line around Christchurch Figure 19 - Annex Road level crossing and Middleton Yard Figure 20 - 2021 AM HCV Volume Plots Figure 21 - 2021 PM HCV Volume Plots Figure 22 - Breakdown of tonnage movements on rail and road as a result of imports through Lyttelton Port Figure 23 - Distribution of imports though Lyttelton Figure 24 - Breakdown of tonnage movements on rail and road as a result of exports through Lyttelton Port Figure 25 - Annual vehicle movements on key roads within the region due to import and exports Figure 26 – Possible theoretical road container capacity through Lyttelton Tunnel in 2041. Figure 27 - Brougham Street Figure 28 - PM Saturn plot of Brougham Street Figure 29 - Curletts Road Figure 30 - Annex Road level crossing

Page | 4 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 125

Figure 31 - Whiteleigh Avenue level crossing Figure 32 - Lyttelton Tunnel Figure 33 - Possible effects of the Christchurch rebuild (HCV’s per day) Figure 34 – Typical Canterbury Supply Chain

Tables Table 1 - Approximate volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch by mode Table 2 - Approximate volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch by mode Table 3 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041) Table 4 - Updated measure (containers) or commodity through Lyttelton Port Table 5 - Current facilities at Lyttelton Port Table 6 - Freight Breakdown Summary Table 7– Actual and Forecast Freight Breakdown Summary Table 8 - Freight Breakdown Summary - Utilisation Metrics Table 9 - Freight Breakdown Summary Table 10 - Freight summary with constraint by time Table 11 - Comparison of various aircraft freight capacities (source: CIAL) Table 12 - CIAL forecasts for changes in freight through the airport (source:CIAL) Table 13 - Glossary

Page | 5 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 126

Page | 6 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 127

Executive Summary

Page | 7 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 128

Page | 8 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 129

Executive Summary

Introduction The Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) partnership was formed in 2012 and consists of members from NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, Lyttelton Port Company Limited (LPC), Christchurch International Airport Limited (CIAL), Christchurch City Council (CCC), Selwyn District Council, Waimakariri District Council, Environment Canterbury and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA). This partnership has collectively estimated freight growth forecasts for the Greater Christchurch region and has commissioned Aurecon to validate these forecasts and explore options to improve and increase the resilience of freight logistics across Greater Christchurch to respond to this growth. As part of the wider package of works commissioned, a Freight Demand Statement was developed outlining the current and future freight demand in Greater Christchurch. The Freight Infrastructure Statement provides the partnership with a view on the capacity of the freight movement infrastructure and its interaction with the current or future supply chains. Finally, a Freight Management Directions Statement will identify interventions and improvements to optimise the capability and resilience of the existing freight infrastructure. The importance of freight in Canterbury This report considers the impact of freight growth on the transport network and supply chain capability. A key driver in assessing the impact of freight growth is the increase in volume of freight being moved. However, this takes no account of the unit value of freight being moved through the network. We have estimated the value of freight and compared this to volume carried by mode. This is represented in Table 1.

Mode Volume (tonnes) % of total Volume Value % of total Value

25,000 0.1% $2.39bn 4.0%

5,297,579 31.0% $18.9bn 31.6%

3,251,447 19.0% $8.3bn 13.7%

8,524,026 49.9% $30.4bn 50.8%

Table 1 - Approximate volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch by mode

Page | 9 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 130

Overview of Current Infrastructure Use Aurecon has considered transport infrastructure associated with four modes, namely: sea, rail, road and air. Sea Freight – Lyttelton Port Over half of all freight moved through Christchurch is moved through Lyttelton Port, with dairy related products and coal forming a large component of the volume. Lyttelton Port has identified land as a constraint on freight growth and accordingly is currently undertaking reclamation works to address this. The port has commenced a reclamation programme in Te Awaparahi Bay to provide additional space for their container terminal. The Port’s current resource consent allows for 10 hectares of reclamation. This work forms part of the Port’s Master Development Plan. Our assessment indicates that the 10 hectare reclamation underway will provide sufficient space for container storage to meet the lower bound growth estimate, assuming technology used in the future remains as per that used currently. Considering the upper bound growth and including the 10 hectare reclamation underway, there may be insufficient storage at both LPC and City Depot (Woolston) by around 2022, which would require the 20 hectare reclamation brought forward to meet this constraint. Under the upper bound growth scenario, container storage would reach capacity around 2031 with both the 10 hectare consented reclamation, and 20 hectare planned reclamation. In terms of additional storage space there are a number of possible options: • Reclamation at the existing Port to create more land for storing containers. • Technical improvements supporting more efficient operation. • Increase the land available at CityDepot, which already happening with expansion towards Curries Road. • Provide additional storage space at a second inland port with good road and rail connectivity. Based on current GCTS projections, additional reclamation beyond the 10 hectares consented will be required by around 2030, when we forecast (using existing stacking technology) that the port will exceed its current planned (and consented) reclamation for container storage purposes. Increasing requirements for container storage land and growth in the use of rail associated with the dairy industry results in CityDepot operating near capacity. In terms of expansion, this site is constrained by both various land owners and the current configuration of the rail siding and is therefore unlikely to expand beyond its current footprint. Rail Freight Rail transports approximately 19% of all freight moved though Christchurch Three lines converge in the vicinity of Christchurch: • The Main South line, connecting LPC to Invercargill via Christchurch and Rolleston; • The Main North Line, commencing at Addington, and connecting to Picton; and, • The Midland Line, connecting the West Coast to the Main South Line at Rolleston. Major movements include dairy product for export from Fonterra processing plants in Clandeboye (via Temuka) and Darfield; Synlait and Westland Milk via Rolleston. This product is either moved directly to LPC for export, or staged at City Depot and transferred to LPC via road, through Lyttelton road tunnel. Middleton Yard is an important location for KiwiRail and is used to stage freight from the north carrying domestic freight for local and regional distribution, and export product to Lyttelton. There is also a coal wagon maintenance facility located here. Import/Export (IMEX) product staged at Middleton and travelling to and from LPC is typically transported via road. • The trains moving domestic freight are typically broken up at Middleton to allow local distribution and

Page | 10 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 131

consolidation of freight. This means that trains will be shunting in the vicinity of Middleton Yard, reducing the capacity of the Yard with a probable impact on local level crossings (particularly Whiteleigh Avenue and Annex Road). • Freight trains destined for export typically travel straight through the Yard (and higher speed than those associated with shunting, etc.), and as such have a reduced impact of level crossings. KiwiRail has identified that the current configuration of MiddletonYard will reach capacity in the next five to ten years under current freight growth trends. However, additional land is available in close proximity to the site should there be a desire to develop Middleton Yard to meet growth in freight volumes carried by rail for container transfer. Consolidation of services supporting IMEX where efficient container transfer can take place, supporting local and regional distribution would improve both the efficiency of movement between ytteltonL and the Main South Line through Christchurch and limit the impact of increased train paths on level crossings along the corridor. Air Freight – Christchurch International Airport Christchurch International Airport (CIAL) provides import and export services for high value and time sensitive freight; and also operates as an air base for New Zealand and international governments to supply food and materials for Antarctic scientific research. Peak summer movements for the export of stone fruit frequently results in this product filling all available air freight capacity. However (and a key problem for airlines and dedicated freighter services) at other times of the year there would typically be excess capacity on aircraft. The majority of the constraints to growth are a direct result of efficiency gains in the airline industry and the move towards single aisle aircraft on trans-Tasman routes (a key export destination for freight moving through the airport). Maximising the opportunities around passenger growth during the peak summer months to meet the demands of the peak produce export season as the two services are intrinsically linked. This would allow more freight to be moved through the airport using a regular passenger service on wide bodied aircraft, without the need for a specific freight service. Two additional areas of strength for Christchurch International Airport include: • Continued support of all Antarctic support services located at CIAL which may also involve attracting other Countries to have a base managed out of Christchurch. • Dakota Park is located in an ideal position to help consolidate operations of freight movement being well located in relation to the airport and strategic road network. Road Freight Whilst both Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts have freight origins in their respective districts, Selwyn is a particularly high producer of freight (including dairy, lamb and wool, seasonal produce and timber) which is predominately moved across their local road networks to the state highway network and then on to processing plants (‘farm gate’ to plant). Dairy production in the Greater Canterbury region is expected to double by the year 2025 and be almost 3.5 times its current production by the year 2041, with a corresponding increase in HCV movements from farm to processing plant supporting an increase in rail trips from processing plant to Port for export. Aurecon has established the origins and destinations of freight by commodity based on point of production and have also estimated the mode of travel of freight for both imports and exports. Based on origin/destination, we have been able to approximate the distribution of freight on the transport network. Using existing mode splits we are further able to distinguish between road and rail forecast increases in volumes (assuming a constant mode share between road and rail transport). The completion of the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 (CSM1) has put additional pressures on Brougham Street (SH76), Shands Road and Springs Road during the peak periods. The opening of CSM stage 2 (CSM2) may have a relieving effect on Shands Road and Springs Road. A constraint in the movement of freight during the day is Brougham Street. We have established that this corridor is used for export travelling towards LPC, while also being utilised extensively for the movement of local freight to and from distribution centres and customers in the greater Christchurch area. The route is particularly busy during peak times, with a large east/west movement and also significant cross movement with commuters travelling in to the CBD area.

Page | 11 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 132

Figure 1 – Approximate road container capacity - 2041 Figure 1 highlights the theoretical capacity of the road network on the approach to Lyttelton, through the road tunnel and indicates a TEU capacity significantly in excess of current volumes (and those predicted by Aurecon in 2041) assuming a move to 24 hour operation. Road infrastructure is utilised at significantly different levels throughout the day and there appears to be significant gains from making more use of what we have, whilst getting more out of the supply chain. Soft measures use existing assets in the network and their implementation is only limited by the time taken to develop the measures. Optimisation through soft measures may be achieved through such methods as: • Shifting non time dependent goods outside peaks hours. This requires industry participation and the buy in from the customer. • Using an interactive information sharing system to help relevant parties optimise freight movement across Christchurch. • Introducing acknowledged freight corridors where goods can be moved outside peak hours. Christchurch Re-Build Significant volumes of material will be required for the re-build, representing approximately 760,000 HCV movements. A large proportion of this movement will be between the Port and City and as such, is likely to be concentrated on connections such as Brougham Street. It should also be noted that the construction industry uses a large and diverse range of commodities some of which will be delivered in bulk to sites, and some of which will be small scale local deliveries. This creates a broad range of vehicle movement. Network Resilience Lyttelton Tunnel currently represents a significant constraint in terms of overall network resilience with hazardous goods travelling through the tunnel. The desirable longer term option is for these goods to be transported over Evans Pass once the Sumner Road can be reopened. The level of remedial works to satisfy all road users on Sunmer Road will determine whether some operators will be comfortable using that road once it is reopened. The other alternative routes over Dyers Pass and Gebbies Pass are circuitous and incur greater costs and distances travelled along with the result being that they are less suitable for heavy vehicle transport. In the event that an incident occurred in the tunnel with a hazardous good vehicle, this could close the tunnel for a prolonged period, with significant impacts on Lyttelton. Furthermore, large volumes of both exports and imports travel through the tunnel, and a prolonged closure could have major effects on the economy of Canterbury. Sumner Road and Causeway are areas that may have ongoing resilience issues when considering alternative access route from the port. Cliff face collapse at Peacocks Gallop (between Sumner and Redcliffs) is an example of the problems faced by this route. Other resilience issues include: • Stability of SH74 around the oxidation ponds on Dyers Road, were significantly damaged in the earthquakes and the risk remains.

Page | 12 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 133

• Bridge crossings of the Waimakariri River and Ashley River. • Bridge crossings over the Heathcote and Avon Rivers within the Christchurch city area. Supply Chain The Christchurch supply chain system not only acts to service the Greater Christchurch region but also is heavily involved with the supply of freight throughout the entire South Island. As Christchurch has the largest Sea Port and Airport it is in the best position to service distribution of large number of stores throughout the Island. Our analysis of population, employment and land use suggests a growing demand for freight related activity in the south and west of Christchurch, reflecting the increase in population and employment in this location. It has been identified that a significant amount of freight is either trucked or sent on rail from the North Island and this is a direct response to the use of established freight routes. Given the importance of Christchurch in local and regional distribution, and the size of the local market, a number of Distribution Centres and freight forwarders are located along the Main South Line corridor between Hornby and Middleton. From here, freight is distributed to end users in and around Christchurch, or transported to other locations in the south island, predominantly by road.

Page | 13 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 134

Page | 14 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 135

Section 1 Introduction

Page | 15 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 136

Page | 16 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 137

1. Introduction

1.1 Purpose of the study The Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) partnership was formed in 2012 and consists of members from New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, Lyttelton Port Company Limited (LPC), Christchurch International Airport Limited (CIAL), Christchurch City Council (CCC), Selwyn and Waimakariri District Councils, Environment Canterbury and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA). This partnership has collectively estimated freight growth forecasts for the Greater Christchurch region and has commissioned Aurecon to validate these forecasts and explore options to improve and increase the resilience of freight logistics across Greater Christchurch to respond to this growth. The growth forecasts together with an assessment of freight origins and destinations is included in the first of three reports, the Freight Demand Statement. As part of the wider package of works commissioned, a Freight Infrastructure Statement is to be developed outlining the current and future freight demand in Greater Christchurch. The Freight Infrastructure Statement will lead on to the development of a Freight Management Directions Statement. This document will provide the partnership with a view on the capacity of the freight movement infrastructure and its interaction with the current or future supply chains. Finally, a Freight Management Directions Statement will identify interventions and improvements to optimise the capability and resilience of the existing freight infrastructure.

Freight Demand Statement Origins and destinations Commodities Freight hubs and Validation of forecast generation points growth

Freight Infrastructure Statement Current capacity assessment Assessment of infrastructure and Key constraints and improvement supply chain capability opportunities

Freight Management Directions Statement Measures to optimise capacity Options for land use responses Soft and hard improvement measures

Figure 2 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components

1.2 Aims of the Freight Infrastructure Statement This document is known as the Freight Infrastructure Statement. It is a desktop review of information, data and forecasts from a variety of sources (some public and some private), together with an assessment of the impacts of projected growth in freight during the CGTS timeline up to 2041. While the overall Greater Christchurch Freight Study will seek to develop options to improve infrastructure and capacity, remove bottlenecks in supply chain efficiency and propose measures that would focus actions to maximise the economic development of the region. The Freight Infrastructure Statement seeks to provide an understanding of the current capacity of the network and freight infrastructure and seeks to identify key constraints to meeting that growth whilst identifying improvement opportunities which will be taken forward in subsequent reports.

Page | 17 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 138

1.3 Report structure The Freight Infrastructure Statement has the structure shown below. The structure is designed to describe and document current capacity of the freight system in Greater Christchurch together with an assessment of infrastructure and supply chain capability:

Section 2 Summary of Freight Forecasts. This section contains an overview of the Freight Demand Statement produced by analysing trends in commodity growth and population and employment data from Statistics New Zealand to provide context for the demand for import containers. Section 3 Infrastructure, Land Use & Freight Movement. This section contains an overview of the existing freight-related infrastructure in the region, and provides a commentary of land use and its relevance in the context of freight. Section 4 Sea Capacity Assessment. This section describes the current operational arrangement at LPC and the freight supply chain associated with the Port. An assessment of capacity has been undertaken which has been used to identify possible future constraints to meeting projected growth in the throughput of freight. Section 5 Rail Capacity Assessment. This section contains considers the current and future rail related infrastructure and its ability to accommodate the future freight task. Section 6 Air Capacity Assessment. This section assesses the impact of projected airport freight growth and the current infrastructure available to accommodate that growth. It describes opportunity to grow market share of freight handled by the Airport an Section 7 Road Capacity Assessment. This section contains an analysis of current infrastructure, and considers the impact of the projected freight growth origin and destination on the local highway network. This section considers specifically freight related traffic on roads in Christchurch City, Selwyn District and Waimakariri District. The section also considers network resilience. Section 8 Supply Chain Assessment. This section considers the current capacity restriction in the supply chain and looks at potential future development to the supply chain that would Section 9 Concluding Remarks. This section summarises the information presented in Sections 3 to 8, in the context of providing a reliable set of overarching freight demands, to be used in subsequent project stages.

1.4 Volume and value of freight in Greater Christchurch This report considers the impact of freight growth on the transport network and supply chain capability. A key driver in assessing the impact of freight growth is the increase in volume of freight being moved. However, this takes no account of the unit value of freight being moved through the network. Table 2 below shows that whilst the volume of freight moved by air is relatively small in comparison to other modes, the value is high. Indeed, the value of exports is higher than other airports in New Zealand reflecting the high value stonefruits/seafood and gold/gems and other high value export products. In this case, the value of freight moved through the airport is approximately 40 times it’s volume. Whilst this Statement considers the impact of increasing volumes of freight carried through Greater Christchurch, there is discussion in subsequent sections on the opportunities to increase the proportion of higher value freight transported through Christchurch International Airport

Page | 18 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 139

Mode Volume (tonnes) % of total Volume Value % of total Value

25,000 0.1% $2.39bn 4.0%

5,297,579 31.0% $18.9bn 31.6%

3,251,447 19.0% $8.3bn 13.7%

8,524,026 49.9% $30.4bn 50.8%

Table 2 - Approximate volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch by mode

Page | 19 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 140

Page | 20 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 141

Section 2 Summary of freight forecasts

Page | 21 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 142

Page | 22 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 143

2. Summary of freight forecasts

2.1 Freight Demand Statement Summary The Freight Demand Statement concluded that due to the large population and employment located in and around Greater Christchurch, as well as the production of export commodities throughout Canterbury, the region plays a critical role in the production of goods for domestic and international markets. As described in this statement, production of a number of major commodities is growing, particularly dairy and other agriculture. Producers are heavily reliant on the efficient movement of their freight from the point of production, through the manufacturing process to the port for export. Inefficiencies in these supply chains, in particular congestion issues relating to road, rail and port access, add costs to businesses and impact more broadly on overall productivity and the nation’s economic health. Current freight demand in the Greater Christchurch region is concentrated primarily on the export of a number of key commodities, including: dairy and milk products, meat products, coal, logs and timber products. Increasingly, these products are transported to LPC by rail, particularly dairy products (transported by rail from Clandeboye, Darfield and Rolleston) and coal (transported by rail from the West Coast). This is putting increasing pressure on existing rail infrastructure and adding to congestion in the Woolston area, around LPC’s City Depot site. Currently, however, all containers transported between the City Depot and LPC currently use road transport. Imports from LPC through the Greater Christchurch region are commodities such as dry bulk and petroleum. General container freight used for domestic consumption is also imported in significant quantities through LPC. The majority of this freight is transported through Greater Christchurch and the wider Canterbury region and South Island by road. The primary aim of this statement has been to analyse and validate the growth forecasts as outlined in the GCTS. Publicly available data has been used to compare trends in historical information to the forecast growth. Where significant differences were encountered for particular commodities, alternate data sources were interrogated and considered, to determine likely reasons for these discrepancies and, if required, to formulate alternate forecasts. A comparison of the forecasts outlined in the GCTS and the alternate forecasts provided in this report is shown in Table 3 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041).

30 Year Assumption Measure or commodity 2010 2041 Growth Population 435,000 550,000 0.9% Employment 200,000 244,000 0.7% Containers (TEU) (lower) 290,000 782,000 5.5% Containers (TEU) (upper) 290,000 1,500,000 *5.3% Air Freight (tonnes) 25,000 107,000 10.6% Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 1,200,000 2.6% Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,371,000 1.2% Logs (tonnes) 250,000 739,000 6.3% Coal (tonnes 2,300,000 3,000,000 1.0%

Table 3 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041 * Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other growth rates are based on annual linear growth) Bold numbers updated from the original GCTS values.

Page | 23 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 144

The Freight Demand Statement concluded that the GCTS growth forecasts appear significantly higher than indicated in historical information available for container trade, dry bulk, petroleum and coal. For example, container volumes are driven primarily by dairy and meat exports and imports of consumer goods. Analysis of dairy and meat production does show that increases in exports of these products is likely, but is unlikely to be high enough to drive an overall container movement growth of approximately 5.3% compounding annually. However, the GCTS forecast may consider an increase in the South Island share of shipping due to the possibility of allowing larger ships, and this could help increase the overall total, although there remains competition within New Zealand given the relative proximity of ports to one another. Aurecon therefore have recommended in this case to provide a range of forecasts, a lower bound based on continued strong growth, and an upper bound based on compounding growth that considers these other factors. It is worth noting that 2013 volumes are now available from LPC and are reproduced below.

Year Measure or commodity 2010 Year to 30 June Percentage 2013 change Containers (TEU) 290,000 351,217 +21% Dry Bulk (tonnes) 660,000 649,365 -1.6% Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,111,189 +11.1% Logs (tonnes) 250,000 369,657 +47.9% Coal (tonnes) 2,300,333 2,049,949 -10.9%

Table 4 - Updated measure (containers) or commodity through Lyttelton Port

Page | 24 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 145

Section 3 Infrastructure, Land use and freight movement

Page | 25 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 146

Page | 26 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 147

3. Infrastructure, land use and freight movement

3.1 Location of transport infrastructure The GCTS aims to provide a basis for the development of a transport system that will support the efficient movement of people and freight across the region. To illustrate the current movement of freight, this section contains an overview of the existing freight-related infrastructure in the region. Each area of freight activity will be further described below: 1. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC). The Canterbury region is a major producer of primary produce; consequently, LPC is the primary export hub for freight leaving the region but also handles a significant proportion of the imports. For example, high volumes of milk and dairy products, logs and timber products, livestock, meat and coal are produced in Canterbury. Much of this output is sent through Christchurch to LPC for export to international markets [50-60]. 2. Christchurch International Airport. Operated by Christchurch International Airport Limited (CIAL), this is the major gateway airport for the South Island. It plays an important role in imports and exports of various commodities produced in Greater Christchurch and also in the wider South Island region. Data indicates that CIAL is primarily an export hub [20], with approximately 25,500 tonnes moving through CIAL in the year to April 2011. Of this volume, only 7,500 tonnes were imported (30%), with the remainder being exported through CIAL (70%). The major commodities exported through CIAL include: seafood, minerals and precious stones, meat and dairy products [20]. 3. CityDepot. LPC operates an off-port container operation called CityDepot. This site is located in Chapmans Road in Woolston and provides a centralised point in Christchurch for the collation of (primarily) export maritime containers and the re-positioning of empty containers for major producers [50-60]. 4. Middleton Rail Terminal. KiwiRail operates an intermodal terminal in Middleton, Christchurch. This location is linked to the KiwiRail network and plays an important role in transporting general containerised domestic freight between Christchurch and the North Island (Auckland in particular) . [1-4]. 5. On-site rail sidings. Examples of dedicated sidings on the South Island that are of relevance to Greater Christchurch, are Fonterra’s Temuka and Darfield sites (not shown on map), where export containers are packed, loaded onto trains and moved to LPC for export. Similarly, Westland Milk’s Rolleston plant uses a rail siding to consolidate its containers onto rail for export through LPC. Dedicated on-site rail sidings also exist on the West Coast, for the loading of coal trains for transport to LPC for export. 6. Distribution Centres. Distribution centres in Greater Christchurch include: Countdown’s Christchurch Regional Distribution Centre in Hornby; Kathmandu’s National Distribution Centre in PortLink and Croxley Distribution Centre in Hornby. The Warehouse South Island Distribution Centre is located at Rolleston. 7. Izone. Located in Rolleston, Izone business hub is an 8 minute drive from the nearby Hornby industrial area in south-west Christchurch. Half of the 180 hectare greenfield industrial development is complete. Izone is owned by Selwyn District Council; and is located in close proximity to road and rail infrastructure. Within Greater Christchurch, there are other areas with significant commercial activity (such as Belfast). While these have been excluded from the list above, they are important for transport in Christchurch, but discussion of this type of area on an individual basis, is beyond the scope of the statement.

Page | 27 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 148

Figure 3– Greater Christchurch transport infrastructure While all arterial roads are important for the movement of freight, the current key road linkages are those that allow primary access into, or through, Greater Christchurch from their origin to destination. These are described in more detail below: A. Lyttelton Tunnel / Tunnel Road (SH74). Lyttelton Tunnel provides a tunnel with one lane in each direction, from Heathcote Valley (southeast of Christchurch) through to Lyttelton. Due to the closure of Sumner Road following the 2011 earthquakes, it provides the only viable road connection between Christchurch and LPC for the movement of freight. As a result, all hazardous goods must use the tunnel; and special restrictions are in place to minimise the risk of damage and collision (further discussed in Section 7.9). Lyttelton Rail Tunnel. With a similar alignment to Lyttelton Tunnel, this rail tunnel connects Lyttelton and Christchurch, and facilitates the transport of some freight between LPC and its markets. This includes the transport of containers (a large proportion being export dairy products), as well as coal from the west coast of the South Island. Each of these is discussed in later sections of this statement. B. Sumner Road. Sumner Road provides an alternative road network link between Lyttelton and Christchurch, and used to be the route taken for trucks carrying hazardous goods, including fuel from the storage facility at LPC. It was severely damaged in the 2011 earthquakes, and has not re-opened to traffic, although there are several different proposals (and associated costs) being put forward to reconstruct the link. C. Christchurch Northern Motorway (SH1S). This link provides the main connection between Christchurch and northern areas of the South Island. It runs adjacent to the river crossing via the Main North Road and the Main North Trunk Line. The only other alternative is Waimakariri Gorge Road (which is Route 72) a further 50 kilometres to the west. Main North Trunk Line. This is the main rail line that connects Christchurch through to the northern areas of the South Island including Blenheim and eventually Picton. This line then joins up with the Interisland Ferry to transport freight (and passengers) to and from the North Island of New Zealand. D. Russley Road (SH1S). This road link provides bypass functionality for vehicles travelling through Greater Christchurch from the southwest to the north (and vice-versa), as well as connecting outlying and regional areas to Christchurch International Airport, without the need to enter Christchurch itself. E. West Coast Road (SH73). As the name suggests, this road link connects Christchurch with the West Coast (via Arthurs Pass) and is a considerably shorter route to Greymouth compared to the northern alternative (State Highway 7). This road also provides a link between western areas of Canterbury and Christchurch. F. Midland Line. The Midland Line provides the rail connection between Greymouth on the west coast of the South Island, through to Rolleston, southwest of Christchurch, where it connects with the Main South Trunk

Page | 28 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 149

Line, and through to Christchurch. For freight, it is used to transport coal between areas on the west coast to be exported at LPC. G. Main South Road (SH1S). This road provides the main link between Christchurch and southern regions of the South Island. Further south, it crosses the Rakaia River, whose only other crossing location is approximately 40 kilometres to the west at the Rakaia Gorge on SH77. Main South Trunk Line. This line provides the only rail access to the southern regions of the South Island. In connects from Invercargill in the south, through to Rolleston (connecting with the Midland Line), to Christchurch (connecting to the Main North Trunk Line), and eventually through to LPC at Lyttelton. Brougham Street (SH76). Brougham Street serves several purposes, including the main line to transport freight between LPC and markets southwest of Christchurch, as well as being adjacent to a hub of major commercial activity that stretches from Woolston in the east through to Middleton in the west (where Brougham Street becomes the Christchurch Southern Motorway); approximately 8 kilometres from one end to the other. 3.2 Freight Movement in the Network As we presented in the Freight Demand Statement, information on freight movements within the Greater Christchurch region, or, more broadly, movements across the South Island, is limited in the public domain. The only publicly available information on these movements is the historical data contained in the NFDS (2014); however, this information is broken down to a Regional Council level, meaning that the finest detail possible for this report is to show movements into, out of and within Canterbury. We have analysed available data, and passed on location of population, estimated the destination of imports by mode. This has been completed for imports and exports, with the corresponding distribution and tonnage shown below. The key element of distribution infrastructure for imports is road based, with destinations within greater Christchurch and the south west accounting for the majority of movement. This is an important consideration as the movement of, and growth in freight supporting imports is closely aligned to population.

Figure 4 - Lyttelton Port – Import distribution network and tonnage (2010 values)

Page | 29 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 150

Figure 5 - Lyttelton Port – Export distribution network and tonnage (2010 values)

In terms of tonnage, movement of export freight through greater Christchurch is dominated by the use of rail, reflecting the trend in the coal and dairy industries to use rail between processing points and export. Accordingly, rail moves significant volumes as presented in Figure 5. The distribution reflects the location of dairy industry processing plants towards the west and south of Canterbury. The above distribution is shown graphically in Figure 6 - Export distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values) and Figure 7 - Import distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values)

Page | 30 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 151

Figure 6 - Export distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values)

Figure 7 - Import distribution by commodity and tonnage (2010 values)

Page | 31 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 152

Page | 32 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 153

Section 4 Sea Capacity Assessment

Page | 33 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 154

Page | 34 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 155

4. Sea Capacity assessment

4.1 Background This section contains the validation of employment forecasts for the background. Lyttelton Port of Christchurch is the South Island’s major commercial deep water port, located in the Christchurch suburb of Lyttelton, on the northern shores of Lyttelton Harbour. Established as a Port in 1849, Lyttelton has developed in to a container trade hub port for the South Island. The Port caters for containers as well as the loading and unloading of bulk products including petroleum, fertiliser, gypsum, cement, logs, conventional break-bulk, imported vehicles and fishing. It also has one of the largest coal export facilities in New Zealand. A breakdown of commodities moved through the Port is contained in the Freight Demand Statement. The Port currently handles approximately 50% of the South Island’s container cargo; however, there is competition from both Port Otago Ltd. and PrimePort Timaru (part owned by Port Tauranga). It is noted that Lyttelton is the export port for the West Coast while imports travel via Nelson. As discussed in the Freight Demand Statement, the Canterbury region is a major producer of primary produce; consequently, LPC is the primary export hub for freight leaving the region. For example, high volumes of milk and dairy products, logs and timber products and meat are produced in Canterbury for export from LPC. Figure 8 provides an overview of Lyttelton Port of Christchurch’s quay side operations. The Container Terminal is located at the western end of Cashin Quay on the outer harbour reclamation. Quay side facilities are supported by CityDepot, an inland container storage and repair facility. Petroleum facilities are located on the western side of the outer harbour. The inner harbour wharves and facilities cater for the unloading and loading of bulk products including petroleum, fertiliser, gypsum, cement, logs, conventional break-bulk, imported vehicles and fishing. Following discussion, a detailed breakdown of the port infrastructure is provided below in Table 5 - Current facilities at Lyttelton Port. It is worth noting that Lyttelton Port has continued to operate following the earthquakes of 2010 and 2011. We have identified two key risks to the freight volumes, and hence infrastructure requirements associated with LPC: • Whilst LPC is the largest Port in the South Island, we have not considered the impact of increased port competition and the resulting effects on freight volume forecast changes on the requirement for infrastructure investment. • We understand a Port Consolidation Study is currently being undertaken by the Ministry of Transport following on from the updated National Freight Demand Study.

Page | 35 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 156

Figure 8 - Lyttelton Port of Christchurch layout . Source: LPC website. Table 5 - Current facilities at Lyttelton Port

Structure Description Cashin Quay CQ1 (coal), CQ2 (currently being re-built) and CQ3 and CQ4. Full cargo handling facilities Berths with container cranes. No.2 Wharf A finger wharf, concrete decked to class one highway standard, for discharge of dry bulk import and general cargoes, and export of logs. - No.2 East is 270m long, 11.8m deep - No.2 West is 169m long, 9.3m deep - Four mobile discharge hoppers - 60 to 90 tonne capacity (can be relocated to other berths) - Wood faced fender piles No.3 Wharf A finger wharf, concrete decked to class one highway standard for discharge of dry bulk import and general cargoes, and export of logs. Also available for lay up and ship repair. - No.3 East is 195m long, 9.5m deep - No.3 West is 223m long, 10.6m deep - D-formed rubber fenders running the full length of the berth face No.7 Wharf A concrete decked wharf maintained to heavy duty standard and equipped with a heavy duty pad at No.7 East for quarter ramp vessels and stern roll-on/roll-off vessels. - No.7 East is 217m long, 10.3m deep - No.7 West is 187m long, 8.5m deep - 32 reefer points Oil Wharf A steel four-berthing dolphin structure, concrete service deck and shore based bollards suitable for vessels up to 225m long. Used for loading and unloading liquid bulk cargoes and bunkering. - 202m long, 12.6m deep Z Berth Earthquake damaged No.1 A general cargo berth, 159m long, 9m deep, regularly used for the discharge of bulk cement. Breastwork - Heavy duty 30m long pad in centre of berth. In the year ended 30 June 2013, 588 general cargo vessels called at Lyttelton Port.

Page | 36 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 157

4.2 Containers The Port’s 13.5 hectare container terminal (as of April 2014) is located on the eastern side of the port, and provides container storage for approximately 4,000 containers, stacked up to a maximum of three containers high. However, we note that current stacking is lower to optimise operational efficiency which results in a maximum container storage of approximately 3700 TEU. The berth depth is currently 13.1m, which, at zero tide, will allow ships of up to 10.8m draft to berth (with a maximum permissible draught of 12.4m, at high tide). The container grid is divided into a number of ‘areas’ by a central ‘east-west’ access road and a series of ‘north- south’ cross road all of which provide access to the grid for straddles. Designated areas are provided for refrigerated (reefer), imports, exports, general and empty containers as well as dangerous goods. The reefer area of the container terminal is equipped with electrical points to handle approximately 720 integral refrigerated containers. Infrastructure to assist in the unloading and loading of containers includes: • 3x Container Cranes on approximately 360m of container rails, with a fourth crane expected to become operational in July 2014. • 22x Straddle Carriers, with four under construction • 7x Forklifts The Container Terminal currently operates Monday to Saturday for manual transactions in addition to Sunday with kiosk transactions, with restricted hours for all manual transactions. The coal stockyard and marine services can operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Vessels are serviced 24 hours per day, 7 days per week. The Port provides for containers being received by both road and rail. Truck access is provided at the eastern end of Norwich / Gladstone Quay (at the end of SH74) directly in to the container terminal. There are seven truck lanes within the terminal for loading / unloading; with 10 off-road parkup spaces provided at the Cashin Quay Backroad to allow documents to be completed prior to loading. In peak periods, trucks have been reported to wait along Cashin Quay Backroad. The Port is currently considering proposals for an internet based truck booking system which will smooth demands, and therefore increase certainty over arrival times whilst increasing efficiency at the port entrance. Separate gate access is provided to the empty container yard (ECY) located at the eastern end of the Port adjacent to the reclamation being undertaken. The KiwiRail siding accommodates one 24-wagon train (48 TEU). On average 5 container trains are received at the container terminal per day. Fonterra’s milk powder exports are received by LPC by rail directly from their plant in Darfield. The Clandeboye plant operates in a similar way to Darfield, with staging taking place at CityDepot prior to reaching the Port. Fonterra pack all containers at point of processing to maintain control of strict quality measures. In general, the proportion of imports and export containers is well balanced at Lyttelton, and empty containers are also transported via rail to CityDepot and then back to Fonterra’s Darfield and Clandeboye plants. The turnaround (unload) on each train is approximately 2 hours. Average length of time a container remains at the Port is 1.9 days for an import container, and 4 days for an export container. The Container Terminal has suffered significant damage as a result of the 2011 earthquake including outward movements of the seawalls and deformation of the pavement. Temporary repairs have allowed the terminal to maintain operational but significant works will have to be undertaken over the next ten years to repair the terminal and wharf structures which may impact on port operations. Cashin Quay number 2 will be converted for use as part of the Container Terminal, having previously been used for general cargo and the cruise ships. The wharf demolition and stabilisation project on Cashin Quay number 2 is programmed to commence early 2014, noting that this wharf is currently not operational due to the extent of damage. Once completed during 2015, we understand the container berth length available will be approximately 600m.

Page | 37 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 158

Table 6 - Freight Breakdown Summary

Freight % Type Top four Commodities Are dairy, meat products, coal/fuel and logs and timber products Approximately 28% of Are empty containers containers moved 70% of containers Are full moved Origin Diary related products are a significant and growing market in Canterbury. Whilst there are dairy farms throughout Canterbury, there are large dairy processing plants in Darfield and Clandeboye

4.2.1 Actual Container Volumes

Actual container throughput in the year to 30 June 2013, provided by LPC, was 351,217 TEU, an increase of 140,000 containers over seven years. Full container movements contribute to approximately 70% of the total container throughput, split equally between export and import. Empty container movements contribute to approximately 28% of the total container throughput, with slightly more containers being imported. Other movements, such as deliver, load, restow, shift on board and outside container terminal, make up the remainder of the terminals container movements. Empty containers are de-hired at one of three depots in Christchurch (including CityDepot located in Woolston) and if they are to be repositioned (exported empty) are transported to the Empty Container Yard (ECY) at the Port. Import empty containers discharged from vessels are collected from the ECY, which has capacity for 870TEUs, with 1200TEU storage available from April 2014. New development planned for completion in March/April 2014 will result in the ECY moving slightly eastwards and will increase the ECY capacity to approximately 1,500 TEU (an additional Container terminal capacity of 400-500 TEUs). 4.2.2 Forecasted Container Growth

As presented and discussed in the Freight Demand Statement, LPC’s forecast for container throughput in 2041 is currently around 1.5 million TEU, which reflects a compound average growth rate of 5.3% over a 30 year period. LPC’s growth assumptions are outlined in the Freight Demand Statement, together with alternative growth forecasts provided by Aurecon. A major contributor to this growth is Fonterra’s Darfield Plant, opened in 2012 (with stage 2 completed in 2013). The first drier produces 85,000 MT of milk powder a year; which equates to approximately 5,000 TEU. When fully operational, the plant will process 7.2 million litres of milk per day. LPC expect to receive approximately 15, 000 TEU from Darfield in the year to June 2014. As domestic freight increases (with freight originating from the North Island coming into Christchurch for the earthquake rebuild), this will lead to an increase in coastal shipping and an increase in the movement of material from Lyttelton to various construction sites throughout Christchurch. 4.2.3 CityDepot

In addition to the quayside facilities Lyttelton Port of Christchurch operates CityDepot, an off- port container facility located at Chapmans Road in Woolston, approximately 10 minutes’ drive from Lyttelton through Lyttelton Tunnel. The 16 hectare site (comprising 9 hectares at CityDepot and 7 hectares at Curries Road site), primarily a storage facility for empty containers, is one of three empty container depots in Christchurch, and the only facility owned by LPC. Currently, approximately 9 hectares is set aside exclusively for the storage of empty containers.

Page | 38 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 159

This site, of which some is still under development, currently has capacity for approximately 9,000 TEUs which can be stacked up to between 5 - 7 containers high within the depot. The facility also provides a full range of container services, such as container repairs, pre-tripping and maintenance. The depot is serviced by road and rail; with a 24-wagon KiwiRail siding located in the depot. The depot is nearing capacity and the Port is in the process of expanding its operations into an adjoining site with additional access off Curries Road. 4.3 Fuel The Lyttelton Port Tank Farm, located at the western end of the inner harbour, has storage capacity for approximately 105 million litres of petroleum product including petrol (91, 95, 96 and 98), Diesel, Jet Fuel, and Bitumen products. Approximately 1 million tonnes of bulk fuel product was moved through Lyttelton Port during the year ended 30 June 2013. The Tank Farm facilities / and capacity is as follows: • Two 250mm nominal bore marine discharge units for white products - 1,100 tonnes per hour capacity • One 250mm nominal bore marine discharge unit for black products - 420 tonnes per hour capacity • LPG marine unloading arm • Maximum bunkering rates: Light fuel oil - 90 tonnes per hour Marine diesel - 85 tonnes per hour. The Tank Farm is operated by NZ Oil Services Ltd (NZOSL) with Mobil Oil New Zealand, BP New Zealand, Z Energy, and Fulton Hogan Bitumen having their own bulk fuel storage tanks within the facility. Additional storage facilities are provided in Woolston (15 million litres); Christchurch Airport (3 million litres, all jet fuel); and Timaru (40 million litres). The majority of the fuel is destined for Christchurch; followed by Timaru and Ashburton. Prior to the Christchurch Earthquakes, petrol was either pumped from the port through a Mobil’s 6.4km pipeline through the Port Hills down to a depot in Woolston; or transported by tanker across Sumner Road / Evans Pass. Diesel and jet fuel can only be transported by tanker. Since the earthquakes the Evans Pass route has been closed, and NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) have permitted dangerous goods to pass through the Lyttelton Tunnel at night (7pm – 6am), unaccompanied, which is causing delays to other traffic using the tunnel. The current procedure is as follows: • When a tanker (or dangerous good vehicle) is leaving the Tank Farm (west Lyttelton) they advise the Lyttelton Tunnel Control they are leaving the Port. Tankers arriving from Christchurch typically arrive at the Heathcote Portal unannounced, and wait in the portal layby. • The Tunnel Control Centre will then clear the tunnel, which takes approximately four minutes. • Once given the all clear by the Tunnel Control Centre the tankers will pass through the tunnel unaccompanied. • Once the tanker is clear of the tunnel, it will be reopened to all other traffic. Between eight and 30 dangerous good vehicles can pass through the tunnel a night. In May 2013 NZTA signalled that temporary arrangement will end when Evans Pass reopens, following requests from BP New Zealand and Z Energy to transport fuel through the tunnel permanently. A second pipeline has also been discussed previously; however it is not possible for this to pass through the tunnel. 4.4 Timber Timber (logs) exports to the year ended 30 June 2013 was approximately 370,000 tonnes. However, following the large storms in Canterbury in September 2013, the port is currently experiencing a spike in volume due to the export of windblown trees.

Page | 39 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 160

Logs are typically brought to the port by road, with some arriving by rail (predominately from the West Coast). Currently 6-12 wagons per day, typically with 30 logs per wagon. Ships typically take in the order of 48 hours to load, and are loaded 24 hours a day. 4.5 Coal Lyttelton’s coal terminal is one of the largest facilities in New Zealand, with approximately 2 million tonnes exported each year. Coal arrives by rail from the West Coast, and is collected in the coal yard prior being loaded onto coal ships. Currently 5 trains arrive on a daily basis from the West Coast, comprising 30x 50-tonne bottom dump railway wagons. KiwiRail note there is capacity in the network for up to 8 trains per day, with up to 45 wagons per train if demand requires. Up to 335,000 tonnes of coal can be stockpiled in the 6ha yard in 6 stockpiles. However coal operations tend to be ‘just in time’. The coal is loaded onto ships via a bucket-wheel reclaimer and mobile plant, which together feed a series of conveyor belts connected to a ship loader. During the year ended 30 June 2013, 37 coal ships visited the Port, less than one a week. 4.6 Fertiliser and cement Approximately 325,000 tonnes of fertiliser was imported into the port in the year ended 30 June 2013. This material is transferred by road through to Christchurch and beyond. Holcim New Zealand own and operate a cement depot at the eastern end of Gladstone Quay, with capacity to store 11,000 tonnes of cement in four silos. This was increased from 7,000 tonnes in 2012, to meet the demands of the Christchurch rebuild. Holcim ships currently berth at the No. 1 Breastworks which has underground facilities connecting it to their storage facility. Cement is then transferred by road to Christchurch and beyond. In mid-2013 Holcim announced plans to shut its cement manufacturing plant in Westport and switch to importing cement. It was announced in December 2013 that Holcim would switch its cement import terminal to PrimePort Timaru. The estimated $50m investment will provide the capacity to handle up to one million tonnes of cement a year. Imports of cement to Lyttelton will be unaffected. The only difference is that imports will be via Timarie instead of West Port. 4.7 Port constraints Aurecon have considered the impact of increasing freight volumes passing through LPC in three main categories: • Impact in relation to the operation of the port • Impact in relation to port access and transport network impacts • Temporary impacts associated with the closure of Sumner Road (Evans Pass) for the transport of dangerous goods The following outlines the infrastructure constraints identified for LPC. 4.7.1 Rail constraints

The number of sidings within the terminal (the quayside Container Terminal has one 24 wagon siding for container trade) constrains the number of rail movements and therefore impacts the number of containers that are able to arrive by rail. Additionally, there is only one 24-wagon siding at CityDepot, and the number of trains per day is limited by the time required to unload / load the train (although there exists the possibility of providing an additional siding at the site which is constrained given land ownership issues). Extension of the container grid adjacent to the siding may assist in loading rates, although this has not been considered in detail as part of the Freight Infrastructure Statement.

Page | 40 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 161

In other words, in terms of rail constraints, the determining factor is not capacity of the line serving the port, it is the capacity of the sidings serving the line. This and the consequence of increasing use of capacity constrained sidings are discussed in more detail in Section 5. KiwiRail have stated there is capacity for another three coal trains a day, to take the total number from five to eight. Should the need arise there is capacity within the site at LPC to build another siding. 4.7.2 Road constraints

The most direct road route from Lyttelton to Christchurch is through the Lyttelton Tunnel, operated by NZTA. Prior to the Christchurch earthquakes dangerous good and oversized vehicles were prohibited from the tunnel and used the alternative route of Sumner Road / Evan’s Pass Road. However, this route has been closed since February 2011 and the NZ Transport Agency has permitted dangerous goods (including Petroleum) through the tunnel at night unaccompanied. However, and in addition to increased risk presented by the movement of hazardous substances through the tunnel, this leads to delays to both passenger and freight traffic who have to sit at either end of the tunnel waiting for the dangerous goods vehicles to pass through. Additionally, this requires a balance between ongoing tunnel maintenance and the passage of essential goods through the tunnel. It is a situation that is untenable in the medium term given the importance of the tunnel in the movement and distribution of experts and imports, Currently Christchurch City Council, who maintain Sumner Road / Evans Pass, have not confirmed plans for the route, which requires significant repairs and stabilisation works to bring it back to a pre-earthquake standards. Whilst a question mark remains over the future use of the Sumner Road / Evans Pass route to (pre Earthquake conditions) use by general traffic, there will remain a significant concern over the lack of a secure resilient, alternative route to the port by road.

Figure 9 - Evans Pass route In additional to the Evans Pass route there are two alternative surface routes from Lyttelton Port to Christchurch via Dyers Pass and Gebbies Pass; however, both are problematic to trucks as noted below. Dyers Pass is approximately 25km between the port and Curletts Road interchange with an elevation gain of approximately 400m. The route also includes challenging horizontal alignment and a long descent through noise sensitive suburbs. Accordingly, this is not considered a long term viable access to the port. This was confirmed when a truck carrying a crane from the port overturned.

Page | 41 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 162

Figure 10 - Dyers Pass route Gebbies Pass is approximately 50km between port and Curletts Road interchange, a significant increase in time and vehicle operating costs. Furthermore, the route also has no shoulders challenging horizontal alignment. Accordingly, this is not considered a long term viable alternative route to the port.

Figure 11 - Gebbies Pass route The lack of a secure route and condition of the fuel pipeline post-earthquake are concerns for the transfer of fuel and other hazardous goods from Lyttelton Port to Christchurch.

Page | 42 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 163

4.7.3 Land constraints

Lyttelton Port has identified land as a constraint on freight growth and accordingly is currently undertaking reclamation works to address this. In April 2011, following the Christchurch earthquakes, the port commenced a reclamation programme in Te Awaparahi Bay, at the east end of the port, to provide additional space for their container terminal. The Port’s current resource consent allows for 10 hectares of reclamation, to date approximately 5 hectares has been partially completed. It is worth noting that with the reclamation currently underway and forecast for completion in around 2016, container storage capacity and slots available will have increased by approximately 40% between 2013 and 2014. We understand that the Ports Master Development Plan aims for a thirty (30) hectare reclamation to cater for projected volumes through the Port. Whilst problems with port access have been reported , LPC is generally managing to process containers in a timely manner, it is recognised that a sustainable longer term strategy is needed to meet the growing freight volumes through the port. Accordingly, LPC have commenced with a Master Planning exercise to optimise operations and planning going forward. For logs and timber exports, storage space is carefully managed by the Port. Following the spike in exports following the September 2013 storms experienced in Canterbury, the port has temporarily expanded its operations into CityDepot for timber scaling and additional storage. 4.7.4 Operating hours

The port currently operates 5.5 days per week (Monday to Friday, and half a day on Saturday), 12 to 14 hours per day. Additional hours of operation are available to customers with prior arrangements or if vessels are operating. There are different hours for manual reception. There would be more capacity for freight movements at the port and on the road network if the hours of operations were extended (potentially to a 24-hour, 7-day a week operation), as this would ease demand and peaks and spread the arrivals throughout the day or night. Currently CityDepot only operates between 6.00am-10.00pm five days a week, and 7.00am-12 noon on a Saturday. However, these opening hours can be extended based on changes in demand and by arrangement. Additional hours would ease demand and peaks and spread the arrivals throughout the day or night. Aurecon has undertaken extensive consultation as part of this study, and following discussion with freight forwarders, there does appear to be capacity in the existing supply chain to respond to longer port operating hours. These extended hours would likely result in transport operators storing containers at their own depots overnight (referred to as hubbing or staging), as customers at this stage are resistant to longer hours because of the staffing costs. 4.8 Ability to accommodate projected growth 4.8.1 Port Operation

At the current rate of storage and berth utilisation, Lyttelton Port will not be able to accommodate the Aurecon or CGTS projected container throughput in 2041. As discussed previously, at the time of writing this report, LPC are developing a comprehensive Port’s Master Development Plan to address the infrastructure requirements needed to meet this growth in a staged manner. Measures to improve port capacity including increasing container storage area and improvements to operating efficiency are discussed later in this report. With container throughput at Lyttelton forecast to grow by between double (Aurecon) to more than quadruple (GCTS) between 2013 and 2041, one of the key constraints for the port operations is available land at the port and City Depot, and efficient links joining these two operations such that containers can be quickly and efficiently moved to or from the port. Based on analysis of container storage, it is suggested that the container terminal storage facilities have been operating at or close to capacity however, recent reclamation has eased this situation considerably. Generally, large volume container terminals adopt conventional modes of operation which utilise portainer (gantry) cranes for vessel to shore loading and unloading, serviced by straddle carriers (SC) or rubber tired gantry cranes (RTGC).

Page | 43 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 164

Containers are stored in closely aligned single rows stacked 3 to 4 high for a SC operation whereas they could be stacked 6 high and 6 wide for an RTGC operation. Increasingly in Australia and around the world, marine container terminals are being upgraded or designed for higher productivity using semi-automated rail mounted gantry cranes capable of efficiently sorting containers in stacks up to 6 high and 10 wide. Typical indicators to measure performance of container terminals include TEU per hectare per year and TEU per metre of wharf per year. Acceptable levels of performance at conventional container terminals range from 25,000 to 35,000 TEU per hectare per year and 1,200 to 1,700 TEU per metre of wharf per year based on the equipment currently in use at LPC. Forecast utilisation is shown below.

Take 7 - Actual and Forecast 2013 2015 Aurecon 2041 GCTS 2041 freight Breakdown Summary Containers Services (TEU’s) 351,217 (actual) 389,432 752,161 1,500,000 (forecast) (forecast) (forecast) Storage area (ha) 15 18 28 28 Wharf length (m) 360 600 600 600 Storage utilisation (TEU/ha/yr) 23,400 21,600 27,900 53,500 Berth Utilisation (TEU/m/yr) 975 585 1,250 2,500

Table 7– Actual and Forecast Freight Breakdown Summary Assessing capacity associated with berths is more complex than for container storage. Accordingly, we have only estimated berth utilisation and expressed this as a percentage utilised per year, based on assumptions of days of operation. A detailed assessment of port storage and berth utilisation, together with quay utilisation is included in Figure 12 and Figure 13. Analysis has been undertaken based on both the upper bound GCTS forecast and the alternative Aurecon GCTS lower bound forecast for container growth up to 2041. It is worth noting that the Port’s Master Development Plan has specifically been developed to meet the demand presented in the Freight Demand Statement.

Page | 44 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 165

Figure 12 - Summary of Port storage utilisation metrics against time (shown against upper & lower bound container throughput)

Page | 45 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 166

Figure 13 - Summary of Port berth utilisation metrics against time (shown against upper & lower bound container throughput)

Page | 46 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 167

Figure 14 - Storage utilisation for 2013 and 2041

Figure 15 - Berth Utilisation for 2013 and 2041

As previously noted, maximising the efficiency of the storage capacity and utilisation of LPC container handling facility depends greatly on the stacking technology adopted at the port, the dwell time of each container and the proportion of transhipped containers. With automated stacking technology, storage utilisation of over 50,000 TEU/ha is possible and indeed, is seen in ports such as Singapore and Hong Kong where storage capacity of up to 60,000 and 70,000 TEU/ha respectively are observed. Based on Aurecon analysis (and using upper bound forecasts for container growth), it is estimated using current port storage utilisation, berth utilisation and technology in use: • Based on industry standard utilisation rates, and on the assumption that 30,000 TEU/ha per year is an acceptable upper limit for the technology currently in use, container storage at the port will become a critical issue approximately in the next three to five years. • On the assumption that an acceptable berth utilisation is around 1,500 TEU/m of quay, berth utilisation will be a constraint in the next 4-8years. In summary, to meet GCTS 2041 forecast volumes for the movement of containers through Lyttelton (assuming all other metrics remain constant).

Page | 47 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 168

Table 8 - Freight Breakdown Summary - Utilisation metrics

Increase in container storage area Approximately 22ha (over and above the required to maintain 30,000 TEU ha 10ha consented) Maintaining berth utilisation rates of 1,500 An extra 400m of quay will be required TEU/m Limited hardstand storage associated with LPC is considered a key constraint to accommodating the predicted growth in container volumes. One consideration here would be to introduce a fully automated option to maximise efficiency of container handling. Whilst this is an expensive option, it would greatly assist LPC towards meeting the throughput forecast by 2041. 4.8.2 Port access and transport network

As previously noted, assessing the capacity of the external transport network is more complex than the capacity limits imposed by the physical port infrastructure. Accordingly, we aim to establish the possible impacts on key transport routes in terms of additional traffic and provide commentary on the likely impact on congestion. Aurecon has taken the freight origin and destination volumes calculated as part of the FDS and used these to estimate possible increases in freight movements on the road and rail network. This enables a summary of possible increases in vehicle movements associated with the increase in freight volumes to be superimposed on to the network for comparison with existing traffic. It is worth noting that these are dependent on agreed forecasts from the Freight Demand Statement. Current Lyttelton Road Tunnel AADT is approximately 11,000 vehicles. Of this, approximately 10% are Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV) associated with port container traffic, with capacity to carry approximately 330,000 TEU (assuming vehicle loading of 1 TEU per vehicle). This is broadly in line with current LPC container volumes. The following assumptions have been made regarding the capacity of the road network to transport containers in 2041: • Tunnel Capacity: Assumed to be 18,000 AADT in 2041, and 20% of this is assumed to be HCV traffic. • Vehicle Loading: Vehicle loading remains constant in the future (i.e. 1 TEU per vehicle are carried through the Tunnel). • Days of operation: 300 days a year. Given the above figures, the number of TEU carried to/from LPC via HCV is assumed to be approximately 1.08 million TEU in 2041 (Figure 16).

Figure 16 - Assumed road container capacity in 2041, Source GCTS supplementary documentation

A number of assumptions regarding the capacity of TEU carried by rail are also made. These include: • Rail line capacity: 16 trains per day operating 300 days a year. • Rail siding capacity: Each train consists of 48 wagons, each carrying two (2) TEU. This assumes that the current 24 wagon siding at LPC is increased to accommodate 48 wagons at some point in the future. • Train utilisation: All trains are fully utilised (i.e. fully loaded and carrying two (2) TEU) in both directions.

Page | 48 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 169

The total rail capacity available for containers in 2041 is therefore approximately 460,000 TEU (Figure 17).

Figure 17 - Assumed rail container capacity in 2041. Source GCTS supplementary documentation.

When these two modes are added together, the total TEU capacity on the road and rail network is approximately 1.54 million TEU (Figure 15).

Figure 18 - Assumed total LPC container throughput 2041. Source GCTS supplementary documentation. Commentary on assumptions

A number of these assumptions appear relatively conservative. For example, industry experience indicates that average vehicle loading of 1 TEU is low. For example, our recent work for the Port of Melbourne Corporation indicates that average vehicle loading at the port is closer to 2.0 TEU [5]. It is likely that vehicle loading for trips to and from LPC would be greater than 1, because of the mix between 20” and 40” containers in use. As ports get busier and wait times for container delivery and receivals increase, trucking companies will try to increase the amount of backloading undertaken to increase efficiency. There are no backloading assumptions used to calculate total capacity of the infrastructure surrounding LPC. If backloading were considered, then the number of trucks required to transport these 1.5 million containers would be lower, and the theoretical capacity of the Tunnel in particular would increase. These calculations assume that all containers being carried by road use the Lyttelton Tunnel. In reality, it is likely that some of these vehicles will use Sumner Road once it is reopened and in use for freight traffic associated with the port. The assumed utilisation rate for all port shuttle trains is 100%. It is unlikely that every train will be completely full, indicating that the estimate of TEU transported to/from LPC may be on the high side. Nevertheless, it is considered that this utilisation is achievable. It is also assumed that the rail line capacity is capable of handling 16 container trains per day in addition to trains carrying coal. Given that there are rail and road constraints at CityDepot and LPC, investment in port infrastructure is required to increase container capacity before the external transport network becomes the constraint in the movement of freight to and from the Port. 4.9 Improvement opportunities The possible improvement opportunities are summarised in Table 9 - Freight Breakdown Summary below. For each constraint identified in Section 4.8, a potential improvement is noted. Based on current projected growth in commodities taken from the Freight Demand Statement, this constraint has been plotted to show a staged implementation plan as to when the potential improvement would need to be triggered.

Page | 49 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 170

Constraint Potential improvement Stage Comment Hardstand storage at LPC Additional port storage Implement vehicle booking potentially constraining the through land reclamation system for collection and throughput of containers New port infrastructure delivery of containers at at LPC to increase stacking LPC – NOW height for containers Investment in equipment and software to optimise to enable containers to be the storage location of stacked more than three individual containers high, and software to Better rail and road links optimise container storage from LPC to off port locations on port land – storage facilities when TEU/Ha reaches 30,000 Increase rail siding capacity at LPC and CityDepot – when TEU/Ha approaches 25,000 Demand at LPC gates Consider extending port Extending hours of Whilst the Port have impacting on vehicle wait gate hours of operation to operation, particularly for the ability to operate times manage port congestion periods of peak demand 24/7, importantly, this (for instance leading up to arrangement would need Christmas) – implement the backing of the wider now freight industry. Extending hours of operation to 24/7 – when TEU/Ha reaches 25,000 Constraint Potential improvement Stage Comment Limited storage space for Increase storage capacity timber/logs on port land Increase storage capacity at CityDepot Work with industry to increase the proportion of logs exported using containers

Table 9 - Freight Breakdown Summary 4.10 Volume based intervention stages Our assessment indicates that the reclamation underway and planned will allow sufficient space for container storage, assuming technology used in the future remains as per that used currently (which is unlikely as the Port have indicated a move to more efficient container handling technology). Assuming the higher rate of annual growth being predicted by LPC, there may be insufficient storage at both LPC and CityDepot before 2022, and LPC would need additional reclamation which has been consented (and we understand is 10 hectares). In terms of additional storage space there are a number of possible options: • Reclamation at the existing Port to create more land for storing containers. • Increase the land available at CityDepot. • Provide additional storage space at a second inland port with good road and rail connectivity. Based on current GCTS projections, additional reclamation beyond the 10 hectares consented will be required by around 2030, when we forecast (using existing stacking technology) that the port will exceed its current planned (and consented) reclamation for container storage purposes.

Page | 50 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 171

Section 5 Rail Capacity Assessment

Page | 51 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 172

Page | 52 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 173

5. Rail Capacity Assessment 5.1 Background The rail network included in the Greater Christchurch study are is outlined in Figure 19 - KiwiRail rail lines (in RED) in the Greater Christchurch study area . In this network freight trains compete with passenger trains for network space. In addition, the movement of freight trains impacts on other transport modes (for instance road through level crossing delays).

Figure 19 - KiwiRail rail lines (in RED) in the Greater Christchurch study area Based on our discussions with KiwiRail, and our analysis of commodity origin and destination movements, the majority of product moved by rail originates from the South and West of Christchurch and moves through Christchurch to LPC. These movements are summarised below, broken down by specific rail line. 5.1.1 Midland Line (West Coast to Rolleston)

There is capacity for eight (8) trains loaded with coal per day each way (travelling between the West Coast and LPC). However, current demand only requires 5 coal trains per day each way. Each train consists of 30 wagons, however KiwiRail indicate that these wagons can be increased to 45 wagons in length if required. The space for coal stockpiles at the point of production and at LPC is limited so these trains and coal deliveries to the port operate using a ‘just in time’ delivery method, which is currently adequate given the volume of coal being exported. Train movements along this corridor are described in more detail below. One train carrying general freight runs between Christchurch and the West Coast each day as detailed below: • One train completes a shuttle to Westland Dairy. The outbound movement from Christchurch takes liquid to the plant (for drying at Hokitika) and the inbound movement delivers milk powder to Rolleston, where it is packed for export at LPC. We understand this service will increase to two trains per day commencing next season.

Page | 53 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 174

• A similar service is operated between Fonterra’s Darfield processing plant, however, the product is railed directly to the Port from Darfield. This is an important movement as it constitutes an area of significance for KiwiRail in the growth of containerised rail freight associated with the dairy industry. • The majority of Fonterra’s Clandeboye processed dairy product is received at CityDepot and trucked to the Port, having been staged at Middleton. Staging takes place at Middleton as the train is built up at Temuka with 40 wagons. The train is then split to 24 wagons maximum at Middleton where it continues to CityDepot (where the siding has a maximum capacity of 24 wagons). • One extra freight train is required for boxed coal, gold and other general freight. These trains transport approximately 20 containers per day. • Limited passenger trains also operate on this line, including the TransAlpine service, where passengers arriving from ocean liner are bused from Akaroa to Lyttelton to board the train service. 5.1.2 Main South Line (Lyttelton – Invercargill)

The main south line forms the backbone of the rail service south of Christchurch, correcting Christchurch with Dunedin and beyond. Currently, the main south line operates as follows: • Two 40 wagon trains run from the Fonterra processing plant at Clandeboye (via Temuka) to Christchurch each day carrying dairy product. Fonterra pack each container on site to maintain strict quality control procedures for export. • One train operates from Lyttelton to various markets every day which carries general freight. KiwiRail noted this as a growing production point for general freight rail traffic on this line. • 14 trains travel each way south of Rolleston per day (4 travelling east/west to the west coast with an additional 5 each way north south, giving 14 in total. Discussions with KiwiRail indicate that the total could increase to 6-7 each way south). 5.1.3 Main North Line (Middleton to Picton)

The main train line to the north of Christchurch connects Christchurch to the north and Picton. From here, KiwiRail operate across the Cook Strait with connections north to Wellington and the remainder of the North Island. At the current time, this line primarily carries domestic freight and is a time sensitive route with trains required to keep to strict timetables to meet ferry crossing times at Picton. Accordingly, in response to this time sensitivity, there are currently no freight service stops in Canterbury north of Middleton. Given the limited customer base north of Christchurch and the quantum of customers clustered in one area in the vicinity of the line it is unlikely to be cost effective for KiwiRail to implement a stop in the medium term at this stage. Therefore, the viability of a rail siding (and hence for some form of freight node) north of Christchurch appears very limited at this time. In addition to freight, this line also carries two passenger scenic trains per day travelling between Lyttelton and Arthurs Pass. However, there are a number of rail yards (sidings) within Christchurch operated by KiwiRail. These are described briefly in the Sections 5.2 and 5.3.

Page | 54 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 175

Figure 20 - Predicted growth in train movements by rail line around Christchurch Through an analysis of current movements of freight and the origin destination analysis completed for the Freight Demand Statement, movements due to imports and exports at Lyttelton port have been accounted for. Figure 20, the Midland rail line shows the largest number of carriage movements due coal movements from the West Coast in addition to processed goods for export being moved from relevant dairy processing plants. As discussed with KiwiRail and as shown in our analysis in Section 5.4, capacities on the rail line in themselves are not likely to cause issues with the additional freight related traffic based on commodity growth predicted at this stage under the Aurecon or GCTS growth scenarios. The constraints appear to be located at transitional or nodal points on the rail system as discussed below. This presents a number of opportunities to KiwiRail, the efficient movement of freight through the Christchurch transport network and other users of the Christchurch road network, particularly in the vicinity of barrier controlled level crossings. 5.2 Woolston Yard Woolston Yard is located at CityDepot, approximately at the western portal of the Lyttelton tunnel. Woolston provides for 24 rail wagon capacity in the siding and is also the site of CityDepot where LPC have their Inland Port operation including additional container storage facilities. There are multiple landowners located in the Woolston site which is currently a constraint on expansion. This results in an inefficient layout of the rail sidings, further reducing the operational efficiency of theYard. Currently, the main land use associated with the Woolston Yard site is as a holding facility for the storage of empty containers, with some storage of logs and timber to manage a peak in exports following the large storms in Canterbury during 2013. 5.3 Middleton Yard Middleton Yard is a container transfer facility located at the eastern end of the Midland Line, adjacent to Matipo Street. The Yard was built in 1980s when containers were less common for the movement of freight than today. The site is constrained in terms of siding length currently having approximately 1km of siding. However, the entire site is currently required to build up a standard 900m train. The site is flanked by Whiteleigh Avenue to the east and Annex Road to the west, both of which are controlled by level crossings.

Page | 55 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 176

This constraint is important in the context of freight distribution as the Yard handles primarily domestic freight, as evidenced by the large number of locally sited distributions centres. Export related freight such as processed milk product and coal travels straight through Middleton Yard to Woolston or LPC. Again, this is relevant for two key reasons: • The trains moving domestic freight are typically broken up for to allow local distribution and consolidation of goods and freight. This means that trains will be shunting in the vicinity of Middleton Yard, reducing the capacity of the Yard with a probable impact on local level crossings (particularly Whiteleigh Avenue and Annex Road). • Freight trains destined for export typically travel straight through the Yard (and higher speed than those associated with shunting, etc.), and as such have a reduced impact of level crossings. KiwiRail have identified that Middleton Yard will reach capacity in the next five to ten years under current freight growth trends with the current configuration of sidings. However, additional land is available in close proximity to the site should there be a desire to develop Middleton Yard container transfer facility to meet growth in freight volumes carried by rail. 5.4 Rail Constraints 5.4.1 Rail Sidings

As identified in Section 4.2 and 4.3, key constraints associated with the movement of freight along the South Line between west Christchurch and Lyttelton include: • Sidings/ change points, particularly located at the Middleton Yard. Notwithstanding the impact on level crossings, the constraint is considered unlikely to be main line capacity in the time horizon being considered as part of this study. • It is generally accepted that using rail for short distances is not as economic as for longer distances. Following discussion with KiwiRail and based on Aurecon experience, the use of rail typically becomes more efficient for journeys over approximately 200km – 300km. However, two key points need to be considered: • The KiwiRail Turnaround Plan maximises the utilisation of existing train movements which is resulting in longer trains. • Short distance ‘shuttles’ can operate successfully when there are a high number of wagons working between two points efficiently. The majority of local Christchurch KiwiRail freight customers are located in and around Hornby, Stockburn and Middleton areas adjacent to the rail line. At the Hornby siding and for train shunts only: • There are generally two to three trains per day, generally at night. • Main customers include Watties with overweight containers for distribution handled at Hornby. Based on the train plans provided by KiwiRail, and following discussions between KiwiRail and Aurecon, speeds through Christchurch are permitted up to a maximum of 70km/h, with trains typically traveling at approximately 50km/h. A maximum train length of 24 wagons is currently permitted east of the Middleton Yard due to constraints on siding length. 5.4.2 Rail Crossings

Level crossings have the potential to cause significant issues with the forecast growth in rail movements. With a growth level of 60% in train movements over the projected growth period, there will be a notable increase in the number of activations of level crossings. The Annex Road level crossing would see approximately 20 extra activations each day which approximates to an extra 10 minutes of traffic interruption, based on current train speeds.

Page | 56 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 177

Figure 21 - Annex Road level crossing and Middleton Yard

5.4.3 Operating Hours

A key operating constraint for railways is the nature of timely departures and arrivals. Often, the train schedule cannot be changed due to operational reasons (particularly in relation to the Main North Line and the need to meet Cook Strait ferry timetables). Through Christchurch, domestic freight tends to travel at peak hours and accordingly, the interaction with road traffic at level crossings becomes an important consideration as much of the increase in the delay will be focussed on peak hour traffic movements. 5.5 Ability to accommodate projected growth We have established that the key constraints associated on the rail network are located at node points (or sidings), particularly Middleton and Woolston. Additional constraints imposed on the transport network are described below 5.5.1 Rail Crossings

It has been observed that rail level crossings with potential capacity constraints moving forward include: • Annex Road (west of Middleton) • Matipo Street (east of Middleton) • Chapmans Road • Curries Road • Whiteleigh Avenue. Barrier times vary between 15-25 seconds, with Annex Road level crossing being activated between 30 – 40 times daily. Whilst this is not a capacity constraint for KiwiRail, it will have delay effects on the Christchurch City road network. Whilst the number of trains using this level crossing is significant the volume of movement does not represent a constraint on the rail network. However, this is an important link in the Christchurch city road network and is used by public transport, connecting the CBD to the southern suburbs. Summary of key issues:

• Rail sidings have significant capacity constraints and are operating near to capacity. • Land use changes to increase siding capacity are expensive, with competing demands such as the need to increase storage at CityDepot to meet the growing freight task. • Increasingly, there will be significant deterioration in the delays experienced at level crossings by vehicular

Page | 57 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 178

traffic crossing the midland line between Middleton and Woolston. • The movement of freight is generally uneconomic over short distances. • Removing the need for shunting at yards along the midland line will increase the general speed of trains, reducing the impact on delays at level crossings. 5.6 Improvement opportunities

Considering the key constraints and the ability of the transport rail and road network to respond to these constraints, there are two key options available, described in more detail below. • Removal of the need for significant shunting movements along the Midland Line between Middleton and CityDepot. Benefits to this would be twofold.

- Operating speeds of trains would increase along the corridor (particularly around Middleton) as trains would be not be stopping/shunting and moving at slow speed along the corridor. This slow movement can significantly increase the travel time of a train across alevel crossing, with a corresponding increase in delay for vehicular traffic.

- Maximising the use of the existing asset, whilst delaying the need for significant infrastructure improvements such as grade separation and lengthening of sidings. • Separation of competing modes through grade separation. Grade separation of Annex Road and Whiteleigh Avenue. This option would clearly remove the delay associated with frequent calls of the level crossing at these locations. Grade separating Annex Road would allow a significant increase in space and permit KiwiRail to build up trains. However, this option would need four rail track clearance which may affect access to Lunns Road and adjacent land uses. This grade separation could only happen once the Wigram- Magdela link is constructed. Therefore rely on the new overbridge to be built so that traffic that would have used Lunns Road could use the Wigram-Magdela overbridge instead. • It is worth noting that there are a number of potential sidings under investigation by KiwiRail. These include locations at Rolleston and Darfield in support of Stage 2 of Fonterra’s development plan.

Page | 58 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 179

Section 6 Air Capacity Assessment

Page | 59 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 180

Page | 60 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 181

6. Air Capacity Assessment

6.1 Background Christchurch International Airport (CIAL) provides import and export services for high value and time sensitive freight; and also operates as an air base for New Zealand and international governments to supply food and materials for Antarctic scientific research. The airport operates 24 hours a day, seven days per week with no current restrictions for aircraft take-off and landing. Only a small percentage of freight is transported by air. However, given the type of goods transported and time constraints attached to these movements, the role air transport plays is important to both Christchurch’s economy and the economy of the wider South Island. Refer to Section 1.4 for details of the value of freight passing through CIAL. United States and NZ Antarctic operations take 90% of freight associated with Antarctic operations at the airport, although this component of air freight is expected to grow significantly in the future if further countried move their Antarctic logistics bases to Christchurch. This represents the continued advancement of Antarctic freight and research fracilities in Christchurch. It is noted that CIAL has no direct control over the Antarctic operations. There has been a growing trend recently for trans-Tasman services to be provided using narrow (single isle) body aircraft such as the A320. This has a significant effect on the volume of freight available in the hold of aircraft as shown in Table 11, which compares the volume of freight (and percentage passenger baggage) for different aircraft configurations As can be seen, there is significantly more space available for freight in wide body aircraft (B767, B777 and A380). Two airlines currently operate wide body aircraft services to Christchurch. Emirates Airlines operates a daily service between Dubai and Christchurch via Bangkok and Sydney utilising 777-300 series aircraft. Singapore Airlines operates a direct service to Singapore using a 777-200 series.

Table 11 - Comparison of various aircraft freight capacities (source: CIAL) CIAL forecasts for freight growth in the short term are presented in Table 12.

Table 12 - CIAL forecasts for changes in freight through the airport (source:CIAL)

Page | 61 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 182

6.1.1 Freight Forwarders and Dakota Park

Adjacent to the main terminal is an existing freight precinct, tenanted by large multi-national transport businesses, such as FedEx and DHL, as well as a number of local operators. A new specialist freight and logistics park area with an adjacent apron has been established within the airport called Dakota Park. 3rd Party logistics are also a large growth area. Outsourcing all warehousing, ordering and delivering to a company like this rather than having specific distribution centres.This reduces costs for companies and lets them focus on their core business areas. Examples include Icebreaker clothing. 6.1.2 Freight movements

Aurecon met a number of freight forwarders as part of an extensive consultation process in support of this study. One particular company Aurecon spoke to, with freight services covering the entire South Island stated that CIAL was the only major air freight mover in the South Island. It was stated that in periods of peak production of produce, resulting directly from capacity constraints on aircraft, goods, are usually trucked up to Auckland by road for export via Auckland Airport. Peak summer movements (typically December to February) for the export of stone fruit and cherries alone frequently results these two products filling all available air freight capacity. However (and a key problem for airlines and dedicated freighter services) other times of the year there would typically be excess capacity on aircraft. In terms of the supply chain, a number of responses are available for time sensitive, perishable and valuable goods. One option would be to attract freight movement through wide body aircraft into Christchurch by increasing the passenger numbers travelling to Christchurch, and the South Island. The introduction of new efficient wide body aircraft flying to international destinations such asAsia, the USA and Australia may present an opportunity for airlines. A second response would be to strengthen the network (whether road or rail or air) by sending freight via Auckland Airport. Freight movements associated with Antarctica are described below. • In terms of freight volumes associated with the combined Antarctic operation, the US is the largest operation, with its own dedicated supply ship to Antarctica via Lyttelton. • The US base (McMurdo) has capacity for around 1000 people, with New Zealand’s Scott Base having capacity for approximately 90. • Antarctica NZ has a cargo warehouse and storage area on Corner of Orchard Road and Wairakei Road. They use this area to consolidate and repack cargo before sending to Antarctica. They also have their own chiller and freezer space to store perishables overnight before flying to Scott Base. • The New Zealand operation supports many European scientists associated with research at Scott Base. • In excess of 1000 containers support the combined services in Antarctica. US containers are transhipped at Lyttelton. • CIAL supports approximately 100 flights per week to Antarctica during the peak season from October to February. • Approximately 50% - 60% of air freight to Antarctica is scientific equipment, with the remainder being perishable foods, machinery and medical equipment. • A number of aircraft are associated with the operation, including RNZAF 757 and Hercules, US C17 and occasionally Australian A319. 6.2 Air Constraints The majority of the constraints to growth are as a result of changes in the airline industry with the move towards single isle aircraft on trans-Tasman routes (a key export destination for freight moving through the airport). Given the aeronautical growth assumptions provided by CIAL, it is estimated that the throughput of freight at the Airport will increase from 244,000 cubic metres in 2014 to 323,000 cubic metres in 2018, with the corresponding increase in freight handled. The growth in freight throughput is a direct result of the increased capacity from the

Page | 62 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 183

up-gauging of aircraft on certain routes from Christchurch. • This is an identified area of opportunity for CIAL as there are currently large facilities being provided on the ice for storage and training activities which consume significant energy to heat and light. However it would be more beneficial to provide a facility in Christchurch for training scientists before they head to the Ice and hence reducing the resources required at the stations. There is also a need for “just in time” operations for flying supplies to Antarctica which, we understand, will require more warehousing in Christchurch. • This is an opportunity to create an industry around the Antarctic operations by providing top class facilities that in turn attracts other countries such as China to have their base to the Ice from here. There are natural links to the University of Canterbury with the scientific endeavours which could be built on with this opportunity. • The PricewaterhouseCoopers report titled Opening Up the Skies (completed in 2010 for Canterbury Development Corporation) indicates that freight capacity in the belly hold of aircraft is the main constraint to increasing air freight volume out of Christchurch. • The limited space provided by narrow aircraft limits the freight that can move via air from Christchurch therefore the freight volumes are dictated by aircraft types, frequency of flights and routes. In other words, this constraint is driving the demand for freight at CIAL, and excess demand is forcing the industry to respond by finding alternative export routes. Wide bodied aircraft and increased flight numbers are expected in the near future as passenger demand continues to grow. • Airlines will generally take on high yield freight such as perishables which can result in manufactured goods having to be trucked to Auckland to get a flight out therefore providing an inconsistent level of service. • Airside apron available for large aircraft serving passenger growth is currently being planned with operational infrastructure already in place to allow for the effective sercvicing of all aircraft expected at CIAL in the short to medium term future. This will ease the potential conflict with Antarctic operations (particularly if this facility attracts other nations servicing Antarctic from Christchurch). 6.3 Growth in freight opportunities A number of key opportunities have been identified and will be examined in more detail in the Freight Management Directions Statement. • Maximising the opportunities around passenger growth during the peak summer months to meet the demands of the peak produce export season as the two services are intrinsically linked. This would allow more freight to be moved through the airport using a regular passenger service, without the need for a specific freight service thereby providing a cost effective alternative to a dedicated freighter service. This should also serve to provide certainty to the producers that an alternative regular, cost effective service is available by air directly from Christchurch. • Increase the services provided in support of all Antarctic support services located at CIAL which may also involve attracting other Countries to have a base managed out of Christchurch. • Airlines will be attracted to high yield freight such as perishables which can result in manufactured goods having to be trucked to Auckland to get a flight out therefore providing an inconsistent level of service. • Dakota Park is located in an ideal position to help consolidate operations of freight movement being well located in relation to the airport and strategic road network. The introduction of chiller/freezer facilities that service a large number of freight forwarders would provide a consolidated facility with corresponding increase in efficiency. It was noted that a large number of small chiller operations are being proposed by individual freight forwarders. • It was also noted that when the US Antarctic operations use commercial airlines to air freight goods to and from Christchurch, they typically fly to Los Angeles via Singapore. This is due to the ability of the airports (all three) ability to handle, securely, sensitive equipment and samples from Antarctic. It was also noted that staff associated with the operation (in the region of 3,000 in total) typically route via Australia to Los Angeles, and not Auckland (primarily) due to preferences in the use of specific Airlines by the US government. However, and irrespective of airline, there was a strong desire for a direct route from Christchurch to Los Angeles given the time saving presented by this service.

Page | 63 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 184

Page | 64 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 185

Section 7 Road capacity assessment

Page | 65 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 186

Page | 66 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 187

7. Road capacity assessment

7.1 Background The Greater Christchurch Freight Study has considered freight movements and infrastructure within the Christchurch City Council, Waimakariri District Council and Selwyn District Council networks as well as the state highways within these networks. The predominant freight movements through the region are across the State Highway Network, as show in the CAST model and detailed below: • North South via SH1 • South to East (Port) via SH76 • West to East (Port) via SH73 /SH76 • North to East (Port) via SH74 • West to North via SH73 / SH1

Figure 22 - 2021 AM HCV Volume Plots Figure 23 - 2021 PM HCV Volume Plots

Both the Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts are high producers of freight (including dairy, lamb and wool, seasonal produce, timber) which is predominately moved across their local road networks to the state highway network and then on to processing plants (‘farm gate’ to plant). The majority of milk produced in the Project area is processed in Selwyn District at one of the three dairy processing plants located there (Fonterra at Darfield, Westland Milk at Rolleston and Synlait at Dunsandal); however the majority of other product travel via road or sea (Lyttelton Port) to other regions within New Zealand. With the expansion of dairy in the last ten years, the impact of seasonal freight movements on the regional road network has been overshadowed by the daily movement of milk product. The sections below outline the road networks under the control of Christchurch City Council, Waimakariri District Council and Selwyn District Councils and relevant constraints and bottlenecks. It is important to note that the Freight Demand Statement highlighted clearly that increases in the volume of dairy product were significant, and even taking assuming Aurecon’s estimate of 8.6% per annum, represents significant and ongoing growth in to the foreseeable future. This, as a minimum, brings a level of certainty to the planning associated with freight related infrastructure in the areas located in the vicinity of major dairy processing

Page | 67 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 188

plants in Canterbury. 7.2 Freight movement and distribution Aurecon has developed a freight movement model spreadsheet which aims to: • Establish the origins and destinations of freight by commodity based on point of production; • Estimate the mode of travel of freight for both imports and exports Based on origin/destination, we have been able to approximate the distribution of freight on the transport network. Using existing mode splits we are further able to distinguish between road and rail forecast increases in volumes (assuming a constant mode share between road and rail transport). This is important as it should allow a guide for understanding the traffic impact of freight moving forward throughout the timeline being considered. It is important to note that when determining freight impact in terms of goods vehicle movements in this report the assumption that trucks are fully utilised has been used. There may be commercial reasons why all the capacity of the truck is not used. For example, in a hypothetical situation an exporter with a heavy product may load all 20 foot containers at approximately 27 tonnes. However, the gross mass limit for a tri axle truck is 42.5 tonnes, meaning that only one container is loaded on each truck so the utilisation of the truck can have a significant impact on the actual price of road transport.

Figure 24 - Breakdown of tonnage movements on rail and road as a result of imports through Lyttelton Port

Page | 68 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 189

Using the origin destination model spreadsheet as discussed above, an approximate tonnage of freight moving on the strategic road and rail network has been established. Figure 24 breaks down the movement of freight created through imports forecast for 2041. Based on current import mode split, up to 90% of the freight imported at Lyttelton is forecast to move through the Lyttelton road tunnel. Two thirds of this has a final destination within the Greater Christchurch region with the remainder destined for other areas of the South Island. In terms of imports, the majority are consumed within the greater Christchurch area which is consistent with the distribution of main population. Based on our analysis, a growing region appears to be located to the south and west of the City, where around 25% of road freight is destined. On the basis of population growth and the distribution of freight and its connectivity to local and regional markets, this would support the development of corridor improvements in the south west by NZ Transport Agency. Our analysis indicates that approximately 10% of road freight is destined for consumption in the north of Christchurch. Much of the freight traffic with a destination in greater Christchurch is sent to distribution centres located to the south of Moorhouse Avenue. This legacy location reflects the relative proximity to the main population centre of Christchurch and the proximity of good rail connections and good port access via SH76 to imports and exports. This is an important consideration as the distribution of local domestic freight is using the corridor together with the large volume of export freight destined for Lyttelton Port. Figure 25 illustrates the possible future distribution of import freight travelling through Lyttelton (based on 2041 forecasts).

Figure 25 - Distribution of imports though Lyttelton

Page | 69 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 190

Figure 26 - Breakdown of tonnage movements on rail and road as a result of exports through Lyttelton Port

Figure 26 was also produced using the origin destination model spreadsheet developed for this study. In contrast to the high proportion of freight moved by road for imports, approximately 35% of the freight exported in 2041 is forecast to be moved through the road tunnel. This is in large part due to the high volume of coal moved by rail from the West Coast over the Midland Rail line, and the volume of dairy product exported via rail. Two thirds of the freight moved through the road tunnel has origins within the Greater Christchurch region. 7.3 Christchurch City transport impacts 7.3.1 Key routes and considerations

The key routes for freight around Christchurch are the state highway routes around the perimeter of the city; SH1, SH73, SH74 and SH76. However there are number of constraints to freight movement within this state highway network and the wider Christchurch City Council (CCC) road network especially in the peak period where freight is competing with commuter traffic for road space.

Page | 70 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 191

7.3.2 Freight Vehicle movements on key Greater Christchurch roads due to imports and exports

Figure 27 - Annual vehicle movements on key roads within the region due to import and exports Figure 27 uses tonnages calculated tracked through the origin destination model along with the following assumptions surrounding vehicle carrying capacities; • 15 tonnes per container • 1.5 containers per vehicle A figure in line with container growth of 5.5% (per annum) is used to extrapolate the likely vehicle movements from 2012 onwards. These vehicle movements are only due to imports from and exports to Lyttelton Port and as a result do not represent total movements on these roads. What also must be considered in addition to these vehicle movements are the domestic movement of pre-manufactured goods and also internal domestic movement of freight for consumption. To show the effect of theoretical capacity calculations on the transport network, Figure 16 has been reproduced below using slightly different assumptions. • If we again assume a tunnel capacity of 18,000 vehicles per day. • Given the forecast increase in freight traffic (over and above private vehicle traffic) assume a proportion of HCV’s of 20%. • Assume 1.5 TEU per HCV, reflecting the supply chain response to more efficient movement of goods, and that each TEU is loaded to 60% (in recognition that most TEU’s are loaded in one direction only).

Page | 71 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 192

Tunnel Days of Road volume Capacity 1.5 TEU Operation per HCV 1.62 million 18,000 AADT, 300 TEU 20% HCV

Figure 28 – Possible theoretical road container capacity through Lyttelton Tunnel in 2041.

The sensitivity highlights the impact of key assumptions such as backloading, hours of operation and number of TEU’s per truck. It illustrates that the supply chain response to increasing freight volumes is an effective tool in accommodating growth in containers. SH76 Brougham Street

The completion of the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 (CSMS1) has put additional pressures on Brougham Street (SH 76), Shands Road and Springs Road during the peak periods. Critical locations along Brougham Street include: • Eastern end of CSM1 where it joins Brougham Street due to the reduction of speed and the addition of local traffic. • The intersection with Ensors Road where the number of lanes on Brougham Street, both east and westbound, reduces from two to one reducing the overall capacity of the entire route. • Colombo Street intersection, in particular the impact on Colombo Street cross movements. Durham Street and a key movement along Moorhouse Avenue to Gasson Street and Waltham Avenue.

Figure 29 - Brougham Street The completion of CSM2 will provide additional connectivity between Lyttelton Port and the Izone industrial area and Rolleston; however it will further increase pressure on SH76 Brougham Street in the peak periods. This will be somewhat alleviated by optimisation works that the Christchurch Traffic Operation Centre (CTOC) are undertaking along Brougham Street. However there are concerns from ECAN with respect to the impact on bus routes along Colombo Street with longer delays given to the cross movements to accommodate the SH76

Page | 72 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 193

Brougham Street traffic.

Figure 30 - PM Saturn plot of Brougham Street SH73 Curletts Road

SH73 Curletts Road (from Blenheim Road to Peer Street) currently has three temporary lanes operating through a residential area where the cone delineation has to be moved twice daily. With three schools in close proximity Curletts Road serves large volumes of pedestrians which are in direct conflict with the heavy vehicles utilising this route to head west via Yaldhurst Road.

Figure 31 - Curletts Road

Page | 73 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 194

Whiteleigh Avenue and Annex road

Figure 32 - Annex Road level crossing

Figure 33 - Whiteleigh Avenue level crossing

The KiwiRail level crossings on Whiteleigh Avenue and Annex Road in Addington create significant congestion and delays on both routes when train movements close them during peak periods, with queues extending past Lincoln Road and Blenheim Road which both carry in excess of 21,000 vehicles per day. This can also be seen to a lesser extent on a number of the other level crossings along the route including Matipo Street. Northern Christchurch

To the North of Christchurch the NZTA’s Northern Arterial and Western Corridor Projects will alleviate pressures on the SH1 / SH74 Main South Road; and Marshlands Road which are currently operating at capacity in the peak periods. The Northern Arterial is currently being consented, while the sections of the Western Corridor are currently under construction with works south of the Airport due to be completed by 2014, and works north of the Airport in approximately 2 years. SH74 around the eastern side of the city suffered significant damage as a result of the Christchurch Earthquake.

Page | 74 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 195

Current repair work is leading to a number of diversions however once completed the route will have adequate capacity to accommodate the freight being moved through this route. We also understand that the Northern motorway currently experiences peak hour congestion with large volumes of commuters travelling between Waimakariri district and Christchurch. Lyttelton Tunnel

As outlined previously, since the Christchurch earthquakes, the movement of freight to the Port has been constrained by the closure of Lyttelton Tunnel for the movement of hazardous goods during the hours of 7pm to 6am. Between 8 and 30 movements can occur any one evening, at any time, preventing freight companies from planning their movements around it. NZTA has a future project for the Lyttelton Tunnel upgrading the deluge system. This will improve operation and safety of the tunnel once funding is secured for the design and construction, however, it will not remove the hazard from the tunnel.

Figure 34 - Lyttelton Tunnel Earthquake Repairs Earthquake repairs to services in the inner city are impacting on traffic movements within the four avenues, for this reason the Road Transport Association are minimising the number of heavy vehicles utilising Bealey and Fitzgerald Avenues at this time. 7.3.3 Level crossing impacts

Important level crossings are located on the following: • Whiteleigh Avenue • Lincoln Road • Matipo Street

Page | 75 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 196

• Annex Road • Chapmans Road • Curries Road Note there are also a number of level crossings in residential areas to the north of Christchurch, although based on the distribution of freight and its growth, these may be affected less as a result of the growing freight task. 7.4 Selwyn District Council transport impacts The Selwyn District Council maintains and operates 2,400km of roads within their network, of which approximately 1100km are unsealed. The network provides for both the movement of rural freight in the region and also commuter traffic from the rapidly growing urban areas of Rolleston, Lincoln and Prebbleton close to Christchurch. Traffic volumes on the network have increased by over 50% over the last 10 years. 7.4.1 Dairy traffic In the last decade large scale dairy conversions have occurred resulting in significant increases in the volume of heavy vehicles on the network across the wider plains area of the District. It is estimated that daily over 500 dairy tankers are on the Councils roading network collecting from dairy farms, and the subsequent transport of milk to the large processing plants located near Darfield, Dunsandel and Rolleston. With the projected growth in dairy production within the Canterbury region and in particular Selwyn, dairy tanker numbers in the region will continue to rise. Production in the Greater Canterbury region is expected to double by the year 2025 and will be almost 3.5 times its current production by the year 2041. In most part this reflects the benefits of the Central Plans Water irrigation scheme by the lift of agricultural productivity over 60,000 ha of Selwyn district. This growth in dairy production may result in approximately 1000 dairy tankers operating in the Selwyn district by 2025, a significant increase of HCV’s on the districts roading network. 7.4.2 Other freight movements and HPVs

The rapid growth of Selwyn’s Izone Industrial Park at Rolleston has increased pressures on the surrounding local network and State Highway 1. Currently zoned for 140ha of industrial development, it is being planned to expand further towards Christchurch. Recent news relating to the establishment of freight handling facilities at Rolleston by third party operators puts further emphasis on the need to ensure road and rail networks can respond to these expected demands going forward. Recently the main entrance to Izone was moved to Hoskyns Road which was planned to improve direct access to SH1 and the planned motorway interchange at Weedons Rd via Jones Road. This is expected to be in place around 2020 as part of Stage 2 of the Christchurch Southern Motorway Extension. Furthermore SDC is investigating how access to and from residential and industrial areas of Rolleston can be improved with SH1 in an integrated manner. In addition to the new Izone entrance on Hoskyns Road, SDC are proposing a number improvements to local roads around Izone and to join up with CSM2 as it comes on line to accommodate the additional traffic generated, including upgrades to Jones Road and an overbridge over SH1 that will improve local roading connectivity and access to the interchange. Selwyn District Council have accommodated an increase in the extent of the High Productivity Motor Vehicles (HPMV) routes through the District in recent years. Focussing initially on arterial and collector routes these routes now cover key main collection routes following requests from dairy companies. Telegraph Road, a Council arterial route that connects SH1 to SH73 at Darfield, by way of example has had a rapid increase in heavy vehicle use increasing to over 25% in a very short period. The amount of forestry over the District has declined markedly in recent years with only large plantations remaining in the hill and high country. The effects of milling operations are relatively sporadic and short lived, utilising the state highway network predominately. The 50Max national initiative is something SDC are also preparing for that will increase efficiency and

Page | 76 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 197

productivity of the more standard heavy vehicle operating fleet over its network. 7.4.3 Urban growth and the conflict with freight vehicles Rapid urban growth in Selwyn, influenced heavily by the change in settlement patterns post-earthquakes, has led to significant increases in the volume of traffic on the Shands and Springs Road arterials, both of which are approaching 10,000 vehicles per day. These roads form the main arterial connections to Christchurch from the district. With the recent opening of Stage 1 of the Christchurch Southern Motorway these roads are working much harder to cater for the demand to access to the new motorway. Springs Road provides access to CSM1 for vehicles from Prebbleton and wider afield such as Lincoln, while Shands Road serves a higher proportion of heavy vehicles that includes access to the industrial areas of Hornby. Shands Road is a HPMV route for aggregate trucks from quarries in the area to serve the Christchurch Rebuild. Quarries around Rolleston are similarly being serviced in a similar ways with HPMV routes. Many of the challenges faced by SDC in managing their roading network and moving freight results from the split of traffic on their network; with urban commuter traffic from the growing urban areas of Rolleston, Lincoln and Prebbleton and also Darfield utilising the same routes as freight traffic bound for dairy processing plants in the region and / or Lyttelton Port. SDC currently have a large network of traffic counters deployed around the District which they use to monitor traffic growth and to formulate strategies on how to manage the network. The effects of these different types of growth on the network make maintaining an acceptable level of service a challenge due to increased maintenance needs from the accelerated deterioration of the network through increased wear and tear. This coupled with more constrained national funding in support of local roading activities presents difficulties going forward, not only for Selwyn, but all road controlling authorities. 7.5 Waimakariri District Council transport impacts Waimakariri District Council (WDC) maintains and operates 1,500km of roading within their network, of which 630km is unsealed. The Waimakariri District is separated from Christchurch and Selwyn District by the Waimarkariri River. There are three existing bridge crossings of the river which provides a constraint to the total volume of traffic; the main crossing on SH1 Christchurch Northern Motorway just north of Belfast providing two lanes in each direction; the Old Waimakariri River Bridge located downstream of the highway bridge (one lane in each direction) and a second one-lane bridge crossing on route 72 Waimakariri Gorge Road near Sheffield. The Old Waimakariri River Bridge has experienced some issues with scour which results in the bridge being closed in high river flow events on a semi-regular basis which results in the traffic being diverted to the state highway bridge. The predominant purpose of the local roading network is to move freight from the farm-gate to the state highway network and onwards to processing plants. In addition to this domestic freight is brought into the district (Rangioria) to support the predominately rural community. A number of small manufacturers and processing plants (timber) are located within the region, however most product is processed out of region. The Daiken New Zealand Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) plant located at Sefton creates a number of heavy vehicle movements through the District. There has been an increase in HPM applications for freight coming from the West Coast to supply the wood processing plant. However it is not considered to impact the network at this stage. It is difficult to work out exactly where the trucks are going, and WDC does not have a gauge on the exact volume. The Ashley River Bridge at the northern extent of the Rangiora urban area provides a direct link to Loburn, Ashley and other settlements including the MDF plant. This bridge is currently unable to be trafficked when the Ashley River is in flood due to the piers scouring and failing in recent events.This results in regular closures and traffic being diverted to either the bridge upstream at the Ashley Gorge or the state highway bridge downstream. A new bridge is currently being designed in this location with construction to follow therefore improving resilience for freight and local traffic movements. A number of small manufacturers and processing plants (timber) are located within the region however most product is processed out of region. Milk produced in the region is moved across the one-lane bridge on route 72 through to the processing plants in Darfield, Rolleston and Dunsandel.

Page | 77 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 198

The local network is considered to operate within capacity, including the one-lane bridge crossing on Route 72. WDC have, however, implemented an extensive network of traffic counters within the district to enable them to monitor growth on the network. The High Productivity Motor Vehicle (HPMV) route through the District is via SH1. 7.6 Ability to accommodate projected growth A major constraint in the freight network is Brougham Street. We have established that this corridor is used for both export trade travelling towards LPC, it is also used extensively for the movement of local freight to and from distribution centres and customers in the greater Christchurch area. The route is particularly busy during peak times, with a large east/west movement and also significant cross movement with commuters travelling in to the CBD area. 7.7 Improvement opportunities There are a number of options currently being developed within the Canterbury region that consider hard infrastructure improvements or developments. Whilst considering the data available, it becomes clear that infrastructure is utilised at significantly different levels through the day. Indeed, considering the practical impacts of the example in Figure 23, there does appear to be significant efficiency gains from making more use of what we have, whilst getting more out of this supply chain. This particular subject is discussed in more detail in Section 7. Soft measures use existing assets in the network and implementation is only limited by the time taken to develop the measures. Optimisation through soft measures may be achieved through such methods as: • Shifting non time dependent goods outside peaks hours. This requires industry participation and the buy in of the customer. • Using an interactive information sharing system to help relevant parties optimise freight movement across Christchurch. • Introducing acknowledged freight corridors where good can be moved outside peak hours. • De-stuffing containers. A more detailed understanding of localised freight movement by working with CTOC to improve efficiencies during the peak and off peak periods is one example. ‘Sweating the asset’ is a key principle in making the most of what we have. This would look at ways road controlling authorities (RTAs) could maximise capacity out of their existing network without significant capital expenditure. An analysis of current traffic volumes by hour along key routes would determine the ‘spare capacity’ which could be prioritised for freight moving to and from the Port. Additionally, planning processes could be put in place to identify suitable strategic and arterial roads within the networks with the purpose of freight movement, hence reducing the demand on lower volume roads. This then focuses the RTAs on where to spend maintenance money, for example where to put heavy duty pavements. This leads to reviewing these roads using the Safe System approach to ensure that intersections and mid-blocks can cope with the growth in heavy vehicle numbers whilst maintaining a high level of safety for all road users. Review freight movement operating times to reduce demand at peak hours when heavy vehicles are in direct conflict with commuter traffic. 7.8 Volume based intervention stages There are key constraints on the highway network. SH76 Brougham Street is congested at peak times and has a number of conflicts. It is used extensively by commuters along its length, is fronted in sections by residential properties, light industrial and is bounded by the railway to the south, and forms the southern boundary of the CBD to the north. As a result of its position relative to the CBD, there are a number of ‘Z’ movements along its

Page | 78 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 199

length as traffic moves to and from the CBD. This creates pressure at key signal controlled intersections 7.9 The value of network resilience Lyttelton Tunnel currently represents a significant issue in terms of overall network resilience with hazardous goods currently travelling through the tunnel. However the desirable scenario is for these goods to be transported over Evans Pass once the Sumner Road can be reopened. The level of remedial works to satisfy all road users on Sunmer Road will determine whether some operators will be comfortable using that road once it is reopened. The other alternative routes over Dyers Pass and Gebbies Pass are circuitous and incur greater costs and distances travelled along with the result being that they are less suitable for heavy vehicle transport. In the unlikely event that an incident occurred in the tunnel with a hazardous good vehicle, this could close the tunnel for a prolonged period, with significant impacts on Lyttelton. Sumner Road and Causeway are areas that may have ongoing resilience issues when considering alternative access route from the port. Cliff face collapse at Peacocks Gallop (between Sumner and Redcliffs) is an example of the problems faced by this route. Other resilience issues include: • Stability of SH74 around the oxidation pons on Dyers Road, were significantly damaged in the earthquakes and the risk remains. • Bridge crossings of the Waimakariri River and Ashley River. • Bridge crossings over the Heathcote and Avon Rivers within the Christchurch city area. Whilst LPC may have capacity to accommodate the freight volumes presented in the Freight Demand Statement up to approximately 2030, there is significant value in maintaining options to accommodate predicted growth in the freight task. Forecasting and planning for infrastructure associated with a growing export trade is subject to many variables (both domestic and international) many of which are out-with the control of Government. Accordingly, it is prudent to maintain the ability to respond to likely changes over the forecast horizon of the GCTS in a flexible way. 7.10 Christchurch Re-build Whilst the impact of the Christchurch re-build on import of material and movement of material locally is depended on the rate of build, it forms an important factor in the short to medium term effects on local infrastructure. We reported in the Freight Demand Statement that significant volumes of material will be required for the re-build, representing approximately 760,000 HCV movements. A large proportion of this movement will be between the Port and City and as such, is likely to be concentrated on connections such as SH76 Brougham Street. It should also be noted that the construction industry uses a large and diverse range of commodities some of which will be delivered in bulk to sites, and some of which will be small scale local deliveries. This creates a broad range of vehicle movement. Comparing the above HCV movements daily (assuming a seven year build period with 250 days of construction per year), it is worth noting that the number of HCV’s represents approximately 30% of the current movements through Lyttelton Tunnel. In other words, the effect of the re-build is such that it represents approximately 10 years of HCV (commodity) growth and is similar to forecast flows associated with the freight task in around 2024 (estimated using lower bound growth forecast). The possible effects of the Christchurch re-build is illustrated below which summarises the effect of the increase in HCV’s through Lyttelton tunnel in the context of overall freight forecasts determined as part of the Freight Demand Statement. It shows that due to the import of build related materials over the short term, the 2030 forecast volumes (without the re-build) could be reached as soon as 2020. In other words (based on the lower bound forecast), the re-build represents approximately 10 years worth of background growth.

Page | 79 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 200

Figure 35 - Possible effects of the Christchurch rebuild (HCV’s per day) Given the short term impact of the re-build, a freight management plan should be implemented at a local level to maintain efficient freight accessibility in to the CBD area. A freight management plan may include measures such as: • Identify area construction management plans to co-ordinate construction activity at a wider geographic level. • Identified routes to and from the Port that have a freight priority. • Staging delivery to avoid traffic peak periods. • Demonstrate that waste material can be removed from CBD sites, and that material can be delivered in a safe and efficient way. • Manage the impacts on local residents and businesses. It is therefore recommended that specific construction management plans are adopted for areas of re-build such that: • Road Controlling Authorities can influence and improve construction related freight efficiency. • There is an improvement in overall network efficiency by actively managing construction related freight resulting in reduced congestion. 7.11 HPMV Routes The current route for High Productivity Motor Vehicles (HPMV’s) through Canterbury is via State Highway 1 to both the north and south of Christchurch. It is worth noting that the route to the north is currently under investigation, and the route to the south is subject to a number of restrictions on SH1 at Rangitata North bridge and Rakaia River bridge. There is no current plan to provide high productivity motor vehicle access between the Port and inland Ports used by LPC.

Page | 80 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 201

Section 8 Supply Chain Assessment

Page | 81 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 202

Page | 82 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 203

8. Supply Chain Assessment

8.1 The importance of the supply chain We presented predicted growth in the Greater Christchurch freight task up to 2041 in the Freight Demand Statement. This indicated a need to plan for the movement of between 782,000 and 1.5m TEU’s per annum (from approximately 350,000 handled by LPC in 2013) in addition to an increase in bulk goods carried such as logs. It is important to adopt a network wide, multi-modal approach to respond to the growing freight task. Accordingly, the whole supply chain must be considered when planning infrastructure investment to avoid a mis-match between the capability of ports to accommodate predicted growth, and the capability of the inland domestic transport network to serve this freight volume increase. This section provides commentary on the operation of the current supply chain in Christchurch, and considers capacity restrictions and improvements moving forward. 8.2 Background and current operations A supply chain is a system of organisations, people, technology, activities, information and resources involved in moving a product from supplier to customer. Supply chains transform natural resources, raw materials and components into a finished product that is delivered to the end customer. Supply chains move products from input materials, through processing, through distribution, and ultimately to customers. Each company has its particular supply chains and many options around these. Supply chain management is a broad concept with multiple levels. The art of supply chain management for any business is determining their most efficient supply chain position (balancing cost, service and quality) for servicing their market. In this study we consider the transport and logistics flows of companies in the context of the Greater Christchurch freight system. Through determining the Greater Christchurch freight origin and destinations, we have mapped, at a high level, the steps in supply chains – capturing the transition points or nodes and the transport links between them. This is important, as it is at the node where the risk of failure increases. At a node a product may be delayed, incorrectly stored or constrained. Problems arise at nodes because there is: • a handover of responsibility • some loss of information • a change in the capacity of the system from one process to another • a change from a continuous process to a batch process or vice versa Freight users make their transport choices based on the time, price and reliability of the different options freight suppliers provide. Different industries have different supply chains, for example, consumer goods generally require a greater level of reliability and responsiveness and complexity than primary industry, mining or forestry. The Christchurch supply chain system not only acts to service the Greater Christchurch region but also is heavily involved with the supply of freight throughout the entire South Island. As Christchurch has the largest sea port and airport it is in the best position to service distribution of large number of stores throughout the Island.

Page | 83 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 204

Factory / Processing Plant

Airport / Lytellton Port Farm

Overseas Port / Distribution Centre / Airport Market

Figure 36 – Typical Canterbury Supply Chain Goods received by road from the Airport or Lyttelton port are unpacked, organised and sent out to areas around Christchurch from key distribution hubs around Middleton and Rolleston, where The Warehouse has located its South Island distribution hub. This is an important distinction for The Warehouse as their distribution centre is located in a position with excellent connectivity to the local, regional and South Island road and rail network. It has been identified that a significant amount of freight is either trucked or sent on rail from the North Island and this is a direct response to the use of established freight routes. Through speaking to various haulage companies with trucking operations, a number of conclusions regarding common practice of supply chain could be found. In terms of imports, most containers are de-stuffed at either distribution centres or at the owners. From the distributions centres, containers are then moved to empty container yards such at Waltham Road where they are de-hired. 8.3 Current issues in the supply chain The supply chain is complex and in the context of imports, has evolved to respond to specific needs of numerous customers over long periods of time. In terms of imports, containerised goods are typically received at the Port by a truck (assuming by road) and either:

Page | 84 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 205

• The container is taken straight to the customer to be emptied (de-stuffed). Once emptied, the container is collected and taken to an empty container yard and de-hired. • The container is taken to a warehouse or distribution centre and de-stuffed, where goods are stored awaiting distribution to customers. Once the container is de-stuffed, it is taken to the empty container yard for cleaning/repair and storage. The process of de-stuffing a container at its destination may be inefficient as the unit carrying the container may have significantly more capacity – in other words, the container may not be full and the truck carrying the container may be capable of taking significantly more freight. By de-stuffing closer to the Port, and combining loads, more efficient use of a truck can be made whereby loads can be combined before delivery to customers. Depending on how close de-stuffing can be done to the Port, this process also avoids an empty container journey. Improving the efficiency of container movement in this way would involve industry co-operation, but it is possible with the trend in logistics to be outsourced to bigger companies.

Page | 85 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 206

Page | 86 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 207

Section 9 Concluding Remarks

Page | 87 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 208

Page | 88 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 209

9. Concluding Remarks

9.1 Freight movement in Christchurch This report considers the impact of freight growth on the transport network and supply chain capability. A key driver in assessing the impact of freight growth is the increase in volume of freight being moved. In terms of land use, key points of freight activity, and their role in the distribution network have been identified. The distribution networks for imports and exports, by commodity, have been identified, where it was shown some two-thirds of imports are consumed in the greater Christchurch area. The growing importance in Christchurch as a South Island centre for distribution was evident. Aurecon considered transport infrastructure associated with four modes, namely: sea, rail, road and air. It was found that imports are predominantly carried by road, and distributed by truck to various distribution centres where they are forwarded on to various local regional South Island destinations. In terms of exports, rail carries around one-fifth of freight which is dominated by freight associated with dairy, dairy product and coal from the west coast. 9.2 Infrastructure Aurecon considered transport infrastructure associated with four modes, namely: sea, rail, road and air. It was found that imports are predominantly carried by road, and distributed by truck to various distribution centres where they are forwarded on to various local regional South Island destinations. In terms of exports, rail carries around one-fifth of freight which is dominated by freight associated with dairy and dairy product and coal from the West Coast. 9.2.1 Port Infrastructure

Lyttelton Port has identified land as a constraint on freight growth and accordingly is currently undertaking reclamation works to address this. The port has commenced a reclamation programme in Te Awaparahi Bay to provide additional space for their container terminal. The Port’s current resource consent allows for 10 hectares of reclamation. This work forms part of the Port’s Master Development Plan. Our assessment indicates that the reclamation underway (and future planned 10 hectare reclamation) will allow sufficient space for container storage to meet the lower bound (Aurecon) growth estimate, assuming technology used in the future remains as per that used currently. Assuming the upper bound growth, there may be insufficient storage at both LPC and City Depot (Woolston) before 2022, which would require the 10 hectare reclamation brought forward to meet this constraint. Based on current upper bound ( GCTS) growth projections, additional reclamation beyond the 10 hectares consented will be required by around 2030, when we forecast (using existing stacking technology) that the port will exceed its current planned (and consented) reclamation for container storage purposes. There are a number of initiatives being undertaken by the Port to improve the vehicle booking system (VBS). 9.2.2 Road Infrastructure

In terms of road infrastructure, the completion of the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 (CSM1) has put additional pressures on Brougham Street (SH76), Shands Road and Springs Road during the peak periods. The majority of the freight task in passing through Christchurch is transported along this corridor (whether by road or rail), and as such the corridor attracts a large number of distribution centres and freight forwarders. This in turn places more pressure on the corridor at peak times. Transport impacts on Christchurch City and surrounding District councils were identified, using the origins and destinations of freight determined in the Freight Demand Study. Whilst relatively small volumes of air freight pass through Christchurch Airport International Airport, its importance as a national and regional airport is significant. Time sensitive, high value freight requires reliable access to the airport and strong roads links are important to grow this high value freight business.

Page | 89 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 210

9.2.3 Airport

CIAL provides import and export services for high value and time sensitive freight; and also operates as an air base for New Zealand and international governments to supply food and materials for Antarctic scientific research. Peak summer movements for the export of stone fruit frequently results in this product filling all available air freight capacity. However (and a key problem for airlines and dedicated freighter services) at other times of the year there would typically be excess capacity on aircraft. Given the value of time sensitive freight passing through the airport, it is important that there are reliable transport routes serving the airport and the businesses supporting airport and air freight services. 9.2.4 Rail Infrastructure

Middleton Yard is an important location for KiwiRail and is used to stage freight from the north carrying domestic freight for local and regional distribution, and export product to Lyttelton. There is also a coal wagon maintenance facility located here. Import/Export (IMEX) product staged at Middleton and travelling to and from LPC is typically transported via road. KiwiRail have identified that the current configuration of MiddletonYard will reach capacity in the next five to ten years under current freight growth trends. However, additional land is available in close proximity to the site should there be a desire to develop Middleton Yard to meet growth in freight volumes carried by rail for container transfer. Consolidation of services supporting IMEX where efficient container transfer can take place, supporting local and regional distribution would improve both the efficiency of movement between ytteltonL and the Main South Line through Christchurch and limit the impact of increased train paths on level crossings along the corridor. 9.2.5 Network Resilience and the Christchurch re-build

Since the Christchurch earthquakes, the movement of freight to the Port has been constrained by the closure of Lyttelton Tunnel for the movement of hazardous goods during the hours of 7pm to 6am. Between 8 and 30 movements can occur any one evening, at any time, preventing freight companies from planning their movements around it. NZTA has a future project for the Lyttelton Tunnel upgrading the deluge system. This will improve operation and safety of the tunnel once funding is secured for the design and construction, however, it will not remove the hazard from the tunnel. Significant volumes of material will be required for the Christchurch re-build, representing approximately 760,000 HCV movements. A large proportion of this movement will be between the Port and City and as such, is likely to be concentrated on connections such as SH76 Brougham Street. It should also be noted that the construction industry uses a large and diverse range of commodities some of which will be delivered in bulk to sites, and some of which will be small scale local deliveries. This creates a broad range of vehicle movement with local impacts.

Page | 90 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 211

Section 10 Glossary

Page | 91 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 212

Page | 92 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 213

10. Glossary

Term Definition 3PL Third party logistics providers - provide transport services for customers, including storage of freight. Backloading The practice where a container or non-container truck makes a delivery and a collection during the same trip, i.e. truck is laden in both directions. CIAL Christchurch International Airport Limited. Operators of Christchurch International Airport. CHE Container Handling Equipment. This may include gantry cranes, full and empty container handling forklifts, reach stackers and straddle carriers. Consignee A business receiving and unpacking a container for domestic rail movements (for the purposes of this study), equivalent to an importer for international shipping movements. Consignor A business packing and dispatching a container for domestic rail movements (for the purpose of this study), equivalent to an exporter for international shipping movements. Container or shipping Steel boxes designed to carry freight. Maritime containers are often standardised: 20 container feet or 40 feet long and 8 feet wide and high. Domestic containers are much more varied, with lengths including 30, 45, 48 and 53 feet. Container movement A container movement is the collection of a container from one location (e.g. an intermodal terminal) and transporting it to another location (e.g. an importer). De-hire The process of returning an empty container to an empty container park. Empty container park A handling, repair and storage facility for empty containers, usually located close to the port to minimise repositioning costs for shipping lines. Export For the purposes of this study, export refers to the dispatch of containers from a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) by a vessel to an international or mainland coastal destination. Exporter A business operated primarily for the purpose of exporting freight, or providing export-related services to other businesses. Gantry crane A large crane mounted on a platform that usually runs back and forth on parallel tracks (can be rubber tyred or rail mounted) astride the container stacks. These cranes are generally used at a marine or intermodal terminal to load/unload containers from trains or trucks. Hardstand An open ground area with a prepared, hard wearing surface. For the purposes of this report, this includes all surfaced intermodal terminal land including the container stacking area. Hardstand is normally built and rated to take a certain weight, which can dictate stack height. Full container handling Forklift capable of carrying a fully loaded 20 foot or 40 foot container. These forklifts forklift are generally used to transfer fully loaded containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons. Import For the purposes of this study, import refers to the discharge of containers into a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) from an international, or mainland coastal vessel. Importer A business operated primarily for the purpose of importing freight, or providing import-related services to other companies.

Page | 93 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 Christchurch Freight Infrastructure Statement ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 214

Intermodal Movement of containers interchangeably between transport modes (e.g. road and rail), where the equipment is compatible within the multiple systems. Empty container Forklift capable of carrying an empty 20 foot or 40 foot container. These forklifts are handling forklift generally used to transfer empty containers between trucks and empty container storage facilities. Some empty container handling forklifts are able to carry two 20 or 40 foot containers at the same time. Logistics chain A logistics management system that integrates the sequence of activities from delivery of raw materials to the manufacturer, through to the delivery of the finished product to the customer. LPC Lyttelton port of Christchurch. Located in Lyttelton, this is the major gateway port in the Canterbury region and acts as a major trade gateway to the South Island of New Zealand.

Rail terminal operators A business that engages in the loading and unloading of freight and containers on and off trains. Reach Stacker Reach stackers are able to transport containers (both 20 foot and 40 foot, full or empty) short distances very quickly and to stack them in various rows and heights depending on its access and the weight of the container. Reach stackers usually have a higher stacking capacity than forklifts. Using reach stackers, container blocks can be kept 2 deep due to the second row access. Reach stackers are generally used to transfer containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons. Reefer Refrigerated container designed to transport refrigerated or frozen freight. They have their own refrigeration equipment incorporated into the container design. Repositioning Movement of a normally empty container from one location where it is not needed, to another where it is. The export of an empty container is often referred to as repositioning. Stevedore A business that engages in the loading and unloading of cargo vessels at a port. For the purpose of this study, this relates to containerised freight. Straddle carrier A straddle carrier is a non-road going vehicle for use in gateway ports, intermodal terminals and transport yards and is used for stacking and moving standard containers (both full and empty). Straddle carriers pick and carry containers while straddling their load and connect to the top lifting points of the container. Straddle carriers have the ability to stack containers up to 4 high; however, container stacks can only be one container wide with small gaps in between rows. TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit, container counting unit based on the International Standards Organisation, 20-foot by 8-foot container Transhipments To transfer freight or a container from one ship, truck or freight vehicle to another. For the purposes of this study a transhipment refers to the transfer of containerised freight from one train to another, e.g. maritime import container to a domestic train for delivery intrastate or interstate. Transport operator A business that transports containerised or non-containerised freight between two locations, e.g. port and import customer.

Table 13 - Glossary

Page | 94 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 215 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 2 TO CLAUSE 5 216

Aurecon New Zealand Limited Po Box 1061 Christchurch 8140 New Zealand T + 64 3 366 0821 F + 64 3 3 79 6955 E [email protected] W aurecongroup.com UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 217

Greater Christchurch Freight Study Reference: 238113 Prepared for: NZTA Freight Management Directions Statement Revision: 2

2 October 2014 Produced for:

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 218

Document control record

Document prepared by: Aurecon New Zealand Limited Unit 1, 150 Cavendish Road Casebrook Christchurch 8051 PO Box 1061 Christchurch 8140 New Zealand

T +64 3 366 0821 F +64 3 379 6955 E [email protected] W aurecongroup.com

A person using Aurecon documents or data accepts the risk of: a) Using the documents or data in electronic form without requesting and checking them for accuracy against the original hard copy version. b) Using the documents or data for any purpose not agreed to in writing by Aurecon.

Document control

Report title Freight Management Directions Statement

Document ID Project number 238113

File path

Client Contract NZTA Client contact Michael Blyleven Manager Rev Date Revision details/status Prepared by Author Verifier Approver

0 17 June 2014 First Draft GW KK/GW/GE MM/GE MM

1 31 July 2014 Revised Draft GW GW/GE MM MM

2 2 October 2014 Draft Final GW GW/GE MM MM

Current revision 2

Approval

Author signature Approver signature

Name Name

Title Title

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 2

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 219

Contents 1. Introduction 4 1.1 Purpose of the study 4 1.2 Aims of the Freight Management Directions Statement 5 1.3 Report structure 5 2. Summary of Freight Forecasts and Capacity 7 2.1 Freight Demand Statement Summary 7 2.2 Freight Infrastructure Statement Summary 9 3. State of the freight network 11

3.1 What currently works well - strengths in the freight network 11 3.2 What currently doesn’t work well - areas of weakness 12 3.3 Possible future capacity constraints and threats 13 4. Strategies and Actions 15 5. Recommendations 26 6. Glossary 29

Figures Figure 1 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components 4 Figure 2 - Investment benefits 11 Figure 3 - HPMV Routes 25

Tables Table 1 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041) 8 Table 2 - Updated commodity trade through LPC 8 Table 3 - Estimated volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch (2013) 9 Table 4 - Possible interventions and measures to implement 16 Table 5 - Summary of interventions and measures 27

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 3

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 220

1. Introduction

1.1 Purpose of the study The Greater Christchurch Transport Statement (GCTS) partnership was formed in 2012 and consists of members from the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, Lyttelton Port Company Limited, Christchurch International Airport Limited (CIAL), Christchurch City Council (CCC), Selwyn and Waimakariri District Councils, Environment Canterbury and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA).

This partnership has collectively estimated freight growth forecasts for the Greater Christchurch region. It has commissioned Aurecon to validate these forecasts and explore options to improve and increase the resilience of freight logistics across Greater Christchurch, to respond to this growth.

The growth forecasts, together with an assessment of freight origins and destinations, are included in the first of three reports, the Freight Demand Statement.

As part of the wider package of works commissioned, a Freight Infrastructure Statement has been developed (considering the forecasts for commodity demands) assessing the capacity of the freight movement infrastructure and its interaction with the current or future supply chains. The Freight Infrastructure Statement leads on to the development of a Freight Management Directions Statement. This document will identify interventions and improvements needed to optimise the capability and resilience of the existing freight infrastructure.

Figure 1 - Greater Christchurch Freight Study components

Freight Demand Statement

Origins and Freight hubs and Validation of forecast Commodities destinations generation points growth

Freight Infrastructure Statement

Assessment of infrastructure Key constraints and Current capacity assessment and supply chain capability improvement opportunities

Freight Management Directions Statement

Options for land-use Soft and hard improvement Measures to optimise capacity responses measures

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 4

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 221

1.2 Aims of the Freight Management Directions Statement This document is known as the Freight Management Directions Statement. It identifies possible improvements, to optimise the current capacity of the freight network, and further measures and opportunities to meet future demands for the CGTS timeline up to 2041.

The overall Greater Christchurch Freight Study will seek to develop options to improve infrastructure and capacity, remove bottlenecks in supply chain efficiency and propose measures to focus actions aimed at maximising the economic development of the region. The Freight Management Directions Statement seeks to identify improvement opportunities, which can be taken forward to help inform the Christchurch Network Management Plan and implement the GCTS.

A critical point highlighted in the Freight Demand Statement is that the growth rates in freight demand for different commodities and freight types are interdependent. Positive growth in one commodity may impose constraints on the broader supply chain; just as negative growth will provide added capacity. For example, growth in container freight and the related train and truck movements to and from Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC), is likely to constrain access for other trains and heavy vehicles moving coal and bulk goods.

The Freight Management Directions Statement considers how to address growth in freight demand and its impact on the overall system of freight movement in Greater Christchurch. Proposed solutions and recommendations are specifically designed to meet the following objectives:

• Ensure that sufficient capacity is available for freight growth (ports, inland ports, road and rail networks).

• Improve or maintain supply chain efficiency, by lowering supply chain costs and improving transit times.

• Allow efficient and rational capital investment to optimise future investment, minimise duplication and obtain efficiency gains through the achievement of greater scale.

• Minimise the impact on the environment, and carbon emissions in particular, by optimising freight movements and increasing the use of rail and coastal shipping, where appropriate.

• Ensure that Greater Christchurch remains competitive on a national and international scale.

1.3 Report structure The Freight Management Directions Statement has the structure shown below. It is designed to describe and document recommendations for each element of the freight system in Greater Christchurch, together with an assessment of overall network resilience and supply chain management:

Section 2 Summary of freight forecasts and capacity. This section contains an overview of the strengths and weakness identified in the Freight Demand and Freight Infrastructure Statements.

Section 3 State of the freight network. This section evaluates what currently works well in the context of freight movement and identifies areas that do not work well. It assesses the areas under threat and considers the likely impact of projected growth in freight demand.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 5

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 222

Section 4 Strategies and actions. This section presents a series of freight management actions, based on outcomes designed to address current and future movements of freight and the resulting impact on the network.

Section 5 Recommendations. This section summarises the information presented in Section 4. It provides a recommended set of actions (focusing on the short- to medium-term) to both address current impediments to efficiency and cater for future growth.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 6

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 223

2. Summary of Freight Forecasts and Capacity

2.1 Freight Demand Statement Summary The Freight Demand Statement concluded that the region plays a critical role in the production of goods for both domestic and international markets. This is due to the large population and extensive employment opportunities in the production of export commodities, throughout Canterbury.

As described in this statement, production of a number of major commodities is increasing, particularly dairy products and other agriculture. Producers are heavily reliant on the efficient movement of their freight from the point of production, through the manufacturing process, to the port for export. Inefficiencies in these logistics chains, in particular congestion issues relating to road, rail and port access, adds to the costs for individual businesses and negatively impacts on overall productivity and the economy of the region.

Current freight demand in the Greater Christchurch region is concentrated primarily on the export of a number of key commodities, including: dairy products, meat products, coal, logs and other timber products. Increasingly, these products are transported to LPC by rail, particularly dairy products (transported by rail from Clandeboye, Darfield and Rolleston) and coal (transported by rail from the West Coast region).

This is putting increasing pressure on existing rail infrastructure and adding to congestion in the Woolston area, around LPC’s City Depot site. Currently, however, the majority of containers transported between the City Depot and LPC still use road transport.

Bulk import commodities through LPC to the Greater Christchurch region, include dry-bulk and petroleum. General container freight for domestic consumption is also imported in significant quantities through LPC. The majority of this freight is transported through Greater Christchurch and the wider Canterbury region and South Island by road.

The primary aim of the Freight Demand Statement is to analyse and validate the growth forecasts, as outlined in the GCTS. Publicly available data has been used to compare trends in historical information to the growth forecasts. Where significant differences were encountered for particular commodities, alternate data sources were interrogated and considered, to determine likely reasons for the discrepancies and, if required, to formulate alternate forecasts.

A comparison of the forecasts outlined in the GCTS and the alternate forecasts provided in this report is shown in Table 1.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 7

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 224

Table 1 - Summary of projected growth by commodity (2010 to 2041) GCTS 2041 Aurecon 2041 Measure or commodity GCTS 2010 (growth) (growth) Population 435,000 550,000 (0.9%) Employment 200,000 244,000 (0.7%)

Containers (TEU) 290,000 1,500,000 (5.3%*) Lower 782,000 (5.5%) Upper 1.5m (5.3%*) Air freight (tonnes) 120,000^ 400,000 (7.5%) 107,000 (10.6%) Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 1,200,000 (2.6%) Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,800,000 (2.6%) 1,371,000 (1.2%) Logs (tonnes) 250,000 260,000 (0.1%) 739,000 (6.3%) Coal (tonnes) 2,300,000 5,000,000 (3.8%) 3,000,000 (1.0%) * Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other growth rates are based on annual linear growth) ^ Aurecon also revised air freight in 2010 down to 25,000t, based on PwC and FIGS data

The Freight Demand Statement concluded that the GCTS growth forecasts appear significantly higher than historical projections in container trade, dry bulk, petroleum and coal.

For example, container volumes are driven primarily by dairy and meat exports and imports of consumer goods. Analysis of dairy and meat production does show that increases in exports of these products is likely, but it is unlikely to be high enough to drive an overall compound growth rate of 5.3% per annum in container movements.

However, the GCTS forecast considers an increase in the LPC market share of shipping, due to its capacity to allow the use of larger ships. This could help increase the overall total, but other South Island ports are also vying for greater market share through accepting larger ships. In this case, however, Aurecon provided a range of forecasts, a lower bound based on continued strong (linear) growth and an upper bound based on compounding growth, which considers these other factors. It is worth noting that 2013 volumes are now available from LPC and are summarised in Table 2.

Table 2 - Updated commodity trade through LPC Commodity 2010 Year to 30 June 2013 Containers (TEU) 290,000 351,217 Dry Bulk (tonnes) 660,000 649,365 Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,111,189 Logs (tonnes) 250,000 369,657 Coal (tonnes) 2,300,000 2,049,949

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 8

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 225

2.2 Freight Infrastructure Statement Summary The Freight Infrastructure Statement considered the infrastructure associated with four modes: sea, rail, road and air, and the impact of freight growth on this network and the supply chain capability.

The approximate volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch by each mode is shown in Table 3. Commentary on each of the modes is described below.

Table 3 - Estimated volume and value of freight moved through Greater Christchurch (2013) Mode Volume (tonnes) % of total Volume Value % of total Value 25,000 0.1% $2.39bn 4.0%

5,297,579 31.0% $18.9bn 31.6%

3,251,447 19.0% $8.2bn 13.7%

8,524,026 49.9% $30.4bn 50.7%

Air freight In peak summer months, all air freight capacity is filled by stone fruits. At other times of the year, there is typically an excess of capacity. Dakota Park is located in an ideal position for freight consolidation, close to the airport and to the strategic road network. The airport is currently well positioned to accommodate increased freight volumes but this requires greater airline capacity such as wide bodied planes. The the majority of the constraints to growth result from efficiency gains in the airline industry and the move towards single isle aircraft on trans-Tasman routes (a key export destination for freight moving through the airport).

Road freight Completion of the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 has put additional pressure on a number of strategic intersections and routes during peak periods. Brougham Street is used extensively for local freight movements to and from distribution centres and customers; and it is also the main corridor for freight movements to and from LPC.

Optimisation of the freight network may relieve pressures on strategic roads during peak hours. Moving greater quantities of goods in off-peak hours would also help to achieve this.

At the present time, capacity issues are not a problem with the Lyttelton Tunnel over the planning horizon, although resilience and risk is a particular concern. In the event of an incident occurring during the transport of hazardous goods through Lyttelton Tunnel, the likely result would be closure of the tunnel for an extended period of time; this would have significant issues for the movement of freight to and from LPC.

Sumner Road may have ongoing resilience issues when it reopens (due to the unstable nature of the cliff face), but is a vital alternative route or freight if the Lyttelton Tunnel were to be closed. The limited

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 9

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 226

number of bridges across the main rivers in the Greater Christchurch region also poses resilience concerns.

Rail freight Insufficient siding capacity at the inland port in Woolston restricts capacity for increased IMEX rail freight movements through this site. Some products for export are freighted by rail to the City Depot and transferred to LPC by road. This increases the number of trucks using the Lyttelton Tunnel; but does result in convenient positioning of empty containers whilst also reducing the export dwell time on the port which does provide additional capacity.

Middleton Yard plays an important role in local and regional distribution, freight staging and consolidation. This process involves shunting, which negatively impacts road traffic at the level crossings on either side of the yard.

Middleton Yard will reach capacity in five to ten years under current growth trends. Service consolidation and expansion are necessary to improve its efficiency to meet this projected growth. The introduction of an inland port may alter trends and minimise capacity constraints on Middleton.

Sea freight Additional container storage is required at LPC to increase the overall capacity of the port. Reclamation of 10 ha is currently underway to address this issue; however, if the higher (compound) annual growth rate of 5.3% predicted by LPC is achieved, the terminal may reach capacity at LPC and City Depot before 2022. In this case, additional remedial action will be required (including a combination of more storage space, an inland facility or different operational practices and equipment).

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 10

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 227

3. State of the freight network

There are a number of areas where the supply chain and supporting infrastructure facilitate the efficient movement of freight through Greater Christchurch to export destinations. The benefits of continued efficient investment are clear and is summarised in Figure 2. Effective planning to deliver adequate capacity to support the growth in exports is vital.

Figure 2 - Investment benefits

3.1 What currently works well - strengths in the freight network The Freight Infrastructure Statement highlighted the current state of the infrastructure associated with the transport network in Greater Christchurch. It identified constraints in the network and supply chain, looking specifically at mode of travel by commodity, the role of the supply chain and associated land- use. This resulted in the identification of a number of areas that were considered to work well in the context of freight movement through and within the study area. These areas are described in more detail below.

1. Key commodities. Canterbury has established freight networks supporting key commodities, such as the export of coal, dairy products and logs. Recent growth in the dairy sector, based partly on conversion of land to support dairy production, has seen efficient movement of export freight, from farm to processing plant to port.

The production certainty and large volumes of these commodities, combined with strict quality control measures at packing and processing plants, result in dairy products being particularly suited for transport by rail.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 11

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 228

2. High use of rail. The mode split of rail as a proportion of the total freight volumes carried through Greater Christchurch, is significantly higher than the national average. Indeed, Aurecon estimates that approximately 20% of freight (tonnes) is moved by rail, compared to a national average of approximately 7%. Whilst recognising the large volumes of coal and dairy product moved by rail through Greater Christchurch, maintaining and supporting this trend should be a priority, given the expected increases production of dairy related products.

The dairy industry in Canterbury has established freight networks linking production to processing plant to port for export. We previously concluded that over the past 5-10 years, higher yields of milk solids per cow and increased areas of irrigated land (for dairy farming have produced a steady increase in overall milk solid production. This equates to 3.8 times the milk solid production (with a doubling of the available irrigable land) between 2011 and 2041, if this growth continues.

3. Capacity of rail network. Despite large volumes of export related freight being moved by rail, there is still some spare capacity on the rail network.

It is worth noting that the proportion of tonne-km moved by rail at a national level is higher, given the tendency for longer distance freight to be moved by rail. Importantly, the main South Line connecting Lyttelton with the southern regions of the South Island, has additional capacity to accommodate extra trains servicing the port. Based on maintaining existing mode splits, we expect the rail network to continue to be capable of carrying the forecast volumes of freight.

4. Regional distribution. Christchurch is well placed as a regional distribution centre, covering deliveries locally and to the rest of the South Island. This has allowed the emergence of Christchurch as the main population centre in the South Island, with sea and air ports of national importance. This, in turn, attracts people, skills and opportunities to the region, supported by good transport links.

The Greater Christchurch area has good road and rail links to the remainder of the South Island. Many organisations use either Auckland or Christchurch as import distribution centres, in some cases resulting in the movement of freight between the two cities.

3.2 What currently doesn’t work well - areas of weakness The Freight Infrastructure Statement summarised how well the infrastructure network operates in Greater Christchurch, when considering the movement of freight associated with the four main modes: rail, air, sea and road. It also considered the operation of the supply chain for imports and exports moving through Christchurch and the associated distribution network in the region. Based on our analysis, there are a number of areas in both the network and the supply chain that do not operate as efficiently as they could. These are summarised below:

1. Lyttelton Tunnel. The importance of the LPC in importing and exporting goods, combined with role of Greater Christchurch in the collection and distribution of goods, places significant emphasis on Lyttelton Tunnel. The current lack of alternative routes for trucks, presents an undesirable position. The reliance on the tunnel for the movement of hazardous goods, represents a risk to the region if the tunnel becomes inoperable for any reason.

2. Brougham Street (SH76). Brougham Street is a national, high volume state highway in the new national One Network Road Classification. It is an important link connecting SH1 (and the new Christchurch Southern Motorway Stages 1 and 2) to Lyttelton, towards the southern edge of the CBD. It is a route that is used for imports, exports and the distribution of goods to

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 12

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 229

Greater Christchurch and throughout the South Island. It is also used by commuter traffic between the southern suburbs and the CBD, and is a key link in the Christchurch public transport network.

According to NZTA, the introduction of Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 has resulted in a 15% increase in traffic volumes and an additional 3 minutes travel time along Brougham Street. The significant positive that should be emphasised is that the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 has resulted in an overall saving of between four and nine minutes in travel time between Hornby and Lyttelton.

3. LPC turnaround times. The reliability of LPC turnaround time for the delivery and collection of containers needs improvement. The use of booking systems to smooth out demand, using both short- and long-haul rail, and strategically located inland ports, are all recommendations to help improve this reliability. These measures will also improve traffic congestion in and around Lyttelton, boosting the amenity of the area.

4. Air freight capacity. Constrained air freight capacity, particularly at certain times of the year, limits growth in high value exports from Canterbury. This results in the adoption of alternative road options (including transport to Auckland Airport for export) by suppliers and freight forwarders.

5. Hornby to Middleton corridor. Including elements of Yaldhurst Road (SH73) and Main South Road (SH73A) and connecting to SH1 south, the corridor carries a large and diverse range of truck movements on the network, from port-related container traffic to local distribution of retail (e.g. Kathmandu at the eastern end, to Progressive Enterprises at Hornby towards the west). A number of freight forwarders are also located between these locations along the corridor, including Mainfreight and Toll, located at Middleton and Hornby respectively.

3.3 Possible future capacity constraints and threats Based on forecast growth and considering the areas of weakness in the freight network, a list of possible future capacity constraints and threats to the efficiency of the freight network, is shown below.

1. Brougham Street (SH76) capacity and corresponding delays to freight. NZTA estimates that the Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 1 has resulted in journey time improvements from Hornby to Lyttelton of 4-9 minutes, with a corresponding increase in traffic on Brougham Street of 15%.

The opening of Christchurch Southern Motorway Stage 2, connecting Brougham Street (SH76) to SH1 south of Templeton, will put additional pressure on Brougham Street.

Brougham Street also serves as a local commuter route, connecting communities to the south of Christchurch with the CBD.

As more traffic uses this corridor, the travel time reliability of the route between Christchurch and Lyttelton may be further compromised. This problem must be considered in the context of the increased freight task on the route and the potential impacts on import and export efficiency. Brougham Street will be an important link in the movement of freight associated with the ongoing Christchurch rebuild.

2. Port storage and berth utilisation constraints. Based on both Aurecon’s analysis and industry standard utilisation rates, and using the assumption that 30,000 TEU/ha per year is an acceptable upper limit for the technology currently in use by LPC, container storage at the

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 13

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 230

port will become a critical issue by around 2022. This recognises the ‘Port Lyttelton Plan: Our Future’ and the current 10 ha of reclamation taking place. On the assumption that an acceptable berth utilisation is around 1,500 TEU/m of quay, berth utilisation will be a constraint by around 2030 in the upper bound growth scenario.

3. Rail siding capacity on the Main South Line. This constraint is important for freight distribution, as sidings on the Main South Line handle primarily domestic freight, as evidenced by the large number of locally sited distribution centres. Trains moving domestic freight are typically broken up to allow local distribution and consolidation of freight. This means that trains will be shunting in the vicinity of Middleton Yard, reducing the capacity of the yard and with a probable impact on local level crossings (particularly Whiteleigh Avenue and Annex Road).

KiwiRail has forecast that Middleton Yard will reach capacity in the next 5-10 years under current freight growth trends and with the current configuration of sidings. We understand that additional land is available in close proximity to the site, should there be a desire to develop Middleton Yard container transfer facility to meet the growth in rail freight volumes. At present, the impact of an inland port on the container transfer site at Middleton is unknown, but it would allow KiwiRail to operate more efficiently.

4. Lyttelton Tunnel. As the freight task grows, increasing pressure will be placed on Lyttelton Tunnel to transport goods between LPC and Greater Christchurch and beyond. Due to the closure of Sumner Road, following the 2011 earthquakes, it provides the most viable road connection between Christchurch and LPC for the movement of freight. As a result, all hazardous goods must use the tunnel; consequently, special restrictions are in place to minimise the risk of damage and collision.

5. Air Freight at Christchurch International Airport. As we have shown in the Freight Demand Statement and Freight Infrastructure Statement, the value of freight moved through the airport is significant. Typically, high value and time-sensitive exports are transported to the airport exclusively by road (compared to a combination of road and rail). This maintains additional control, while helping with the time-sensitivity of the freight. Ensuring good linkages to the transport network serving Christchurch International Airport is vital to securing future high value freight. Maintaining good levels of service through ongoing western corridor improvements will be important in the long-term.

6. Port switching costs. Given the relatively close proximity of other South Island ports (particularly PrimePort Timaru, located only 170km south of LPC), the costs to a major exporter or importer of switching between one port and another is relatively low. Failure to maintain an efficient means of transporting export freight through Christchurch (if it becomes increasingly expensive or difficult) may result in a transfer of volumes to alternative transport networks. 7. Performance of the Rural Network. With the projected growth in dairy production in Canterbury, dairy tanker numbers will continue to rise. Production in the Greater Canterbury region is expected to double by the year 2025 and will be almost 3.5 times its current production by the year 2041. Consideration should be given to accommodating the ‘farm gate’ to processing plant movement as part of an important link in the supply chain.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 14

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 231

4. Strategies and Actions

As described in the previous sections, a number of issues already exist that are impacting efficient movement of freight within and through the Greater Christchurch region. In the future, with projected growth in many export commodities, infrastructure capacity and other impediments will restrict the region’s ability to fully realise those growth opportunities.

We propose, in Table 4, a series of interventions and measures that could be undertaken. This list contains a combination of measures at either resolving existing issues, meeting future growth, providing resilience in freight transport, improving efficiency or developing opportunities to promote Greater Christchurch as a preferred place to do business.

Some of the interventions and measures are complementary (e.g. undertake grade separations on either side of Middleton Yard, expand Middleton Yard to increase capacity and encourage higher rail mode-share), while others are competing or achieve similar outcomes (e.g. increase LPC’s capacity by reclamation of land for container storage, and develop an inland port to improve LPC’s overall capacity).

The opportunity interventions provided in Table 4 are by-and-large aspirational, but are included to highlight some of the benefits in thinking more broadly than simply addressing existing and future growth needs.

The order of the interventions and measures is not important; however, we have put those measures that address existing issues earlier in the table and aspirational opportunities later. Aurecon recommendations are summarised in the last section of this report, but should only be read once the details of the proposed interventions are understood.

For each intervention or measure, the most appropriate timing, indicative cost and priority are proposed, but should be read with the knowledge that some outcomes could be realised using different measures.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 15

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 232

Table 4 - Possible interventions and measures to implement Measure Reason(s) Other Implement vehicle Resolve existing issue Timing booking system at The LPC currently does not have a vehicle booking system and, Short (0-3 LPC as a result, trucks arrive at the time of day most suited to either years) the transport operator or the customer. This results in certain Cost times slots being busier than others, which causes congestion both inside and outside LPC. It can lead to longer turnaround $ times, and reduces reliability in both turnaround time and in Priority travel time to and from LPC. High The implementation of a vehicle booking system would enable a smoothing of the existing demand peaks within LPC, which, in turn, would reduce the number of vehicles in the terminal and on the surrounding road network. It will also improve the reliability of turnaround times at LPC, providing additional certainty to transport operators. Opportunity A vehicle booking system could provide priority to operators with containers being loaded in both directions (backloaded), to reduce the number of overall gate movements and free up capacity on the road network near LPC.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 16

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 233

Measure Reason(s) Other Brougham Street Resolve existing issue Timing optimisation and Brougham Street is already heavy congested at certain times of Short (0-3 capacity the day, because it is the national, high volume state highway years) to Long improvements connecting western and eastern suburbs of Christchurch, is near term (4-10+ a major freight and industrial precincts to the south of years) Christchurch, links freight between LPC and its customers (both Cost those located within Christchurch and elsewhere on the South Island) and has a high volumes of local traffic (vehicle, bus and $-$$$$ cycle) crossing it to access the Central City business district. . Priority Right turning traffic onto and from Brougham Street has a High significant impact on the network efficiency of the corridor. Meet forecast growth / Resilience This situation is likely to get worse, as port import and export container volumes increase. This is likely to occur even if rail captures a higher market-share at the port, due to increased industrial activity and employment in the Woolston to Sydenham corridor. To tackle both ‘existing issues’ and to ‘meet forecast growth’, a minimum would be to identify the choke points and undertake remedial work to alleviate or reduce the issues and undertake travel demand management initiatives to encourage better utilisation of the existing network. In the short term a network operating plan can be implemented to optimise network performance such as by altering signal timing/coordination and improving lane utilisation. In the longer term further improvements may be required such as widening to 2 lanes for the entire length, localised clearways or intersection improvements with turning restrictions where appropriate. Opportunity Brougham Street will always attract a high proportion of freight vehicles, due to its location relative to the industrial precincts between Woolston and Sydenham, towards Middleton and the connection to the port. The port connection aside, widening the road to three lanes or grade separating key intersections to improve connectivity to other corridors would ensure the efficient distribution of freight and improve local access crossing of the corridor.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 17

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 234

Measure Reason(s) Other Rail improvements Resolve existing issue Timing along rail corridor Improvements to the rail network in Christchurch and LPC would Medium (4-10 through provide efficiencies in transport and could facilitate improved rail years) Christchurch and at mode-share. LPC Cost This will result in a reduced number of truck trips on the road $$$ network, which will help reduce congestion. Priority Meet forecast growth Med To be able to meet projected freight and container growth and reduce the reliance on the already congested road network, rail movements in and out of Christchurch and LPC need to at least keep pace with projected growth. Opportunity Ideally, the use of rail for import containers (in conjunction with an inland port, or demand elsewhere on the South Island) will allow trains to be better utilised in both directions. This, in turn, will improve efficiency and provide ongoing cost benefits. Improvements to the signalling system and duplication of the main trunk line from Islington to Rolleston, would increase capacity and allow Rolleston to capture higher rail mode-share around its growing freight precinct. Increase Resolve existing issue Timing backloading at LPC Backloading increases efficiency in the movement of freight, as Short (0-3 fewer empty vehicles are on the road network. This reduces the years) overall number of vehicles (in turn reducing congestion) and also Cost reduces the overall distance travelled by transport operators to move freight (which increases efficiency). $ While these benefits are not restricted to road movements to and Priority from LPC, the port is probably the ideal location to realise many Med of them: 1. Fewer vehicles in the terminal. 2. Fewer vehicles on the surrounding road network. 3. Lower kilometres travelled (given the distance between Lyttelton and Christchurch). Empty container Resolve existing issue Timing storage Storage of containers further away from LPC and closer to Short (0-3 arrangements customers, would reduce overall transport costs and free up years) capacity on the road network near LPC. This will involve working Cost with shipping lines to arrange container de-hire away from LPC, which will be a significant impediment to overcome. $ The use of rail to move empty containers in and out of LPC Priority would be an ideal outcome. They have lower time sensitivity Med than full containers and movements can be planned in advance to make best use of spare rail capacity.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 18

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 235

Measure Reason(s) Other Increase capacity Meet forecast growth Timing of LPC, particularly The capacity of a maritime container terminal is generally Medium (4-10 to cope with determined by: the amount of land available for storing years) projected container containers, the services provided within the terminal (e.g. Cost growth Customs and Quarantine) and the length of time containers stay at the terminal. In LPC’s case, the impact of transhipments also $$$ needs to be considered. Priority Lyttelton Port Company (Limited) is currently undertaking High reclamation works, to ensure that enough capacity is available to meet the forecast short- to medium-term growth. Ongoing expansion of capacity will need to consider constraints outside the terminal, such as the ability of the road network in Lyttelton and Christchurch to cope with the increased number of freight vehicles. Alternative solutions (e.g. inland ports), could be a method of increasing the effective capacity of LPC without increasing terminal storage space. This solution would be dependent on other factors, such as the cost of the (rail) operation and the time-sensitivity of the freight. Opportunity An efficient, higher capacity LPC may facilitate protection and expansion of the South Island’s overall market share of imports and exports, so long as the freight transport can be undertaken efficiently. Another benefit would be the ability to capture an increased number of transhipments and attract coastal shipping, providing economic benefits and efficiencies in end-to-end transport in the region. Protection of freight Meet forecast growth Timing corridors and land The ability to meet the challenge of increasing numbers of freight Short (0-3 areas adjacent to movements (both import/export-related and general freight years) freight activities produced and consumed in New Zealand), hinges on the ability Cost to efficiently move freight between its origins and destinations. $-$$$ As freight volumes increase, the use of off-peak times (e.g. night) becomes more economically viable (customers able to Priority receive freight later and better travel times). High It is therefore extremely important to make provision for this future growth. In particular, the planning for the region should incorporate mechanisms to ensure: 1. No encroachment of residential dwellings into freight intensive areas. This will ensure that these areas are able to continue to work 24 hours per day. 2. Where possible, land provisions for future infrastructure upgrades along key freight corridors, in particular, Brougham Street industrial corridor. It is important to protect 24 hour operation in the region around the LPC, as it will be difficult to move to off-peak times if containers and other dry and liquid bulk freight cannot be transported to and from the terminal at night. Opportunity

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 19

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 236

Measure Reason(s) Other The opportunity exists to avoid curfews at the port, the airport and other industrial precincts, which will place Greater Christchurch in a very good position economically, compared to other regions where there are restrictions on either locations or on time. Development of an Efficiency improvement Timing inland port and an While short-haul rail is not as economical as long-haul rail, the Short (0-3 associated freight benefits of an inland port for the region include: freed up years) precinct to facilitate capacity in and around LPC; short road trips leading to better Cost the consolidation, fleet utilisation; and, co-location of complementary businesses. deconsolidation $$$ The development of an inland port would realise these benefits, and distribution of Priority freight while also making better use of existing rail assets. The ideal location for an inland port is either a long way from Christchurch, Med to service the remainder of the South Island, or to the immediate southwest of Christchurch, to service both Christchurch and the remainder of the South Island. Given the population of the South Island and existing distribution centres located in the Hornby area and the growing freight precinct near Rolleston, a location between Islington and Rolleston1 would probably be the most viable. A location near the Christchurch International Airport would be less suitable, because the airport is off the main rail trunk line, and the airport itself would not attract high volumes of rail freight. Meet forecast growth To meet forecast import and export container growth, supply chain improvements like inland ports would help get the containers out of the port as quickly and efficiently as possible, minimising storage requirements at LPC itself. Being able to undertake this line-haul leg (between LPC and the inland port) at quiet times on the road and rail network, would add to the efficiency gains to be realised. Opportunity The development of a master-plan for an integrated inland port would significantly reduce the freight-related traffic entering Christchurch (especially traffic between LPC and other parts of the South Island). This would free up existing road capacity and improve the amenity of Christchurch itself.

1 Currently, the section between Islington and Rolleston contains single track only, which could restrict the number of port shuttles able to operate between LPC and Rolleston.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 20

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 237

Measure Reason(s) Other Increase Middleton Meet forecast growth Timing Yard capacity, or As Middleton Yard will reach capacity in the next 5 to 10 years, it Medium (4-10 provide alternative is important to put in place expansion plans or provisions, years) rail facilities in alternative locations or remedial actions to meet the forecast Cost Greater growth. Christchurch $$-$$$ Failure to take action will result in less overall freight on rail and an increased number of freight vehicles on the road network. Priority This will compound existing congestion issues on the existing High road network and place higher reliance on trucks to move freight within the South Island. The increased use of trucks on regional roads will cause increased wear and tear and higher maintenance costs. Grade separations Meet forecast growth Timing at Annex Road, The locations of these crossings relative to Middleton Yard, Long (10+ Matipo Street and mean that they are already affected by (in particular) trains either years) Whiteleigh Avenue travelling through Middleton Yard to Woolston or LPC. More Cost significant, is the effect from domestic trains arriving at Middleton Yard to be broken up for local distribution and consolidation of $$$$ goods and freight. Priority Annex Road, in particular, is a significant connector between the High Christchurch South Motorway (from Brougham Road) to the western region of Christchurch, and will be detrimental to movements of freight and other vehicles if remedial action is not undertaken. Re-opening of Resilience Timing Sumner Road to As discussed previously, the closure of Sumner Road, following Short (0-3 freight traffic (in the 2011 earthquakes, has meant that hazardous goods (under years) particular) certain conditions) and other road-based freight uses Lyttelton Cost Tunnel. This current arrangement poses two significant risks: $$-$$$ 1. Trucks carrying hazardous goods through the Lyttelton Tunnel may be involved in an incident/crash; and Priority 2. Another earthquake could cause damage the Lyttelton High Tunnel. In either case, any type of Lyttelton Tunnel damage that closed the tunnel for any length of time (anything longer than a few days), with no viable surface alternative, would mean that LPC (in particular) would cease to function as a viable port. Any prolonged closure of the Lyttelton Tunnel is likely to cause a significant shift of freight to other ports (e.g. PrimePort Timaru), which might not be recoverable when the Lyttelton Tunnel reopened. This scenario could have economic consequences for the Greater Christchurch region.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 21

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 238

Measure Reason(s) Other Lyttelton Tunnel Resilience / Opportunity Timing duplication Lyttelton Tunnel is the main (and really the only freight-viable) Long (10+ road connecting Lyttelton and LPC to the remainder of years) Christchurch. As discussed previously, an incident/crash or Cost earthquake damage would severely impact LPC imports and exports and the ongoing economic conditions of the region. $$$$ A duplication of the tunnel (to form two tunnels, each with two Priority lanes) would mitigate some of the risks from either of these two Med events. In addition, additional capacity may stimulate growth in the region. Common user Efficiency improvement Timing unpack and pack Existing logistics chains tend to make use of efficient container Short (0-3 facilities, adjacent handling and transport systems. However, one of the perverse years) to the port or inland outcomes of this system is often a long trip back with an empty Cost port container. $$ Efficiencies can be realised, for example, if the import containers are unpacked close to the port (or inland port) and the freight Priority transported to the customer using a general purpose vehicle Low (curtainsider or tautliner). Another benefit is the ability to load freight to the volume and load capacity of the vehicle, which is often more than standard maritime containers. Development of a common-user facility would remove the need for transport operators to invest in individual facilities that require substantial economies of scale to be commercially viable. Encourage off- Efficiency improvement Timing peak movements This change is easy to recommend but known to be difficult to Short (0-3 of freight implement due to requiring changes in behaviour of both years) customers and freight operators, however, transporting freight in Cost off-peak (night) times has significant efficiency benefits. $ It frees up road capacity during the peak times for other road users, it makes travel faster (as it is less congested) and Priority therefore deliveries are faster. It also makes better use of the Med transport fleet, e.g. deliveries can occur during both the day and night. The biggest impediment to wide-spread use is that the customer must be able to receive the freight (or have the freight collected) at night, when they would not normally have staff working. The ‘low hanging fruit’ for off-peak freight movements are between transport depots, ports (and inland ports) and large 24/7 distribution centres. These centres are more likely to either already work at night, or be more easily able to change or expand shift times. Encouragement of off-peak port collection times could be applied through pricing policies (more expensive to collect during peak times and less expensive during off-peak times). Transport operators are less able to apply the same method to their customers, as with the competitive nature of transport, the customer would just go to one of their competitors.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 22

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 239

Measure Reason(s) Other Increasing Air Opportunity Timing freight capacity Air transport is best suited to high value, time-sensitive freight. Short (0-3 At certain times of the year, however, there is insufficient years) capacity to handle the demand. Road transport from the South Cost Island to Auckland Airport then becomes a stop gap measure to ensure the freight can be exported to its final destination. $ While this solution is scalable to meet future growth in high Priority value, time-sensitive freight, it is hardly ideal, as it adds Med considerably to the transport costs of exporters, erodes profit and may reduce the overall amount that can be exported. Aurecon understands that the re-introduction of wide-body aircraft to Christchurch International Airport will greatly increase the freight capacity. This will help the cost efficiency of exports and therefore the region. High Productivity Opportunity Timing Motor Vehicle High Productivity Motor Vehicles, or large trucks, have the ability Medium (4-10 improvements to to reduce the number of trips required to transport a particular years) the network amount of freight from its origin to destination. Cost The state highway through Christchurch is currently fully HPMV $$ capable through to LPC. Freight operators are encouraged to Priority make use of this capability. Low An expanded HPMV local road network for connection to any inland port would allow efficient linehaul movements, as well as supplementing and complementing rail freight movements to and from LPC. Improvement of Opportunity Timing north and west SH1 between Belfast in the north and Hornby in the south, Ongoing highway corridors provides two important functions: Cost 1. For the movement of people and freight to and from $$$$ Christchurch International Airport and Hornby area, Priority particularly from areas to the north and south of Low Christchurch; and 2. As the main freight corridor for road freight between the northern regions of the South Island (including freight from the North Island) to the southern regions of the South Island. Currently, this corridor is being upgraded to be two lanes in each direction (as part of the Roads of National Importance programme). Once this is complete there do not seem to be any serious issues in the immediate area, but further bypass improvements would future-proof the area. It would also facilitate ongoing efficient access for high value, time-sensitive freight to the airport.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 23

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 240

Measure Reason(s) Other One Network Road Network connectivity Timing Classification Freight journeys start and end at specific locations that are Short (0-3 implementation usually accessed via the local authority road network. The first years) and last kilometre of such journeys needs to be enabled to ensure freight connectivity is delivered effectively. The provision, Cost maintenance and operational requirements for these networks $ will be considered through the implementation of the new One Priority Network Road Classification system. Medium

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 24

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 241

A map of the current ‘50Max’ HPMV SH network and local bridge restrictions is shown in Figure 3, relating to the opportunity to build a more robust, connected network to allow the use of high productivity vehicles and realise the associated efficiency benefits.

Figure 3 - HPMV Routes

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 25

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 242

5. Recommendations

While it would be desirable to undertake all possible interventions and measures (shown in Table 4), with limited resources it is necessary to determine the combination of measures that provide the most benefit to the region. Table 5 summarises the interventions and measures described in Section 4, giving their category or the reason for their inclusion in this master list.

Aurecon has shaded those rows which it believes provide the most benefit to Greater Christchurch. This is a subjective assessment and likely to be different from individual stakeholders that have their own areas of influence and interest. The selection of the recommended measures necessarily has first focussed on the high priority items; those items aimed to reducing congestion at certain times, increasing capacity to meet current or short-term expected growth and those that add needed resilience to the transport network. Not surprisingly, these items are mostly short-term actions, clearly identified, and, in some cases, already being worked on or investigated. Of the medium-priority measures recommended by Aurecon in the above list, those selected are the measures that provide for the efficiency and capacity to cater for expected growth in domestic and import and export freight traffic. These measures make greater use of rail (where sensible to do so) and therefore have lower reliance on road transport for freight movements. This will help the road network cope with the ever increasing movement of other freight vehicles, public transport and private vehicles. In each case, the timing for these medium-priority recommendations has been identified as 5+ years; however, we should note that planning, financing and construction will take a considerable amount of time. Consequently, the reality of their realisation is likely to be considerable longer than 5 years, even if concepts and high level planning have already begun. Two other measures require individual discussion, one for its inclusion and one for its exclusion. The first of these is the inclusion of increasing air freight capacity, where identified as an opportunity (because in reality, the current stop-gap method for dealing with capacity by using Auckland Airport, is working and likely to be scalable). We have included this one to reflect the high value export product and the economic benefit to the region. Inefficiencies influencing transport costs and competitiveness with global markets should not be underestimated. While it is worthwhile, changing the current situation to attract wide-body aircraft is not as simple as financing and building infrastructure, as it is more closely aligned with market forces beyond the influence of individual stakeholders. In addition to this inclusion, we have decided to exclude encouraging off-peak freight movements. While no doubt a very worthwhile improvement, the size of the Greater Christchurch market is currently too small for this to become a viable solution. That said, encouraging freight activities at night (e.g. container hubbing at transport operators’ depots) is still a worthwhile endeavour. And finally, the list of interventions and measures for improvement, efficiency, resilience and opportunity is constantly changing, based on emerging trends, changing commercial relationships, increases and decreases in the prices of individual commodities, market circumstances and changing priorities. What is low or no priority today, may become high-priority should circumstances change.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 26

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 243

Table 5 - Summary of interventions and measures

GCTS OUTCOMES Journey

Travel Safety Environment Potential Funding Partners Timeframes Connectedness Reliability Efficiency Resilience Choice

Indicative Measure Implementation Risk Long- Cost Short Medium Lead Supporting term Priority (0 - 3 (4 - 10 Agency Agency (10+ years) years) years) investment Safe Safe Journeys Infrastructure Optimising existing Liveable Liveable Communities Connectedness Land Use Optimising across modes Future Proofing Resilience- Low Environmental Impacts Infrastructure improvement Integration Aligning- Land Use Implement vehicle booking Low LPC High √ $ system at LPC  

Brougham Street optimisation       Low NZTA CCC High √ $$

Community consultation and competing Brougham Street capacity objectives. Requires careful consideration given NZTA CCC High √ √ $$$ improvements   competing uses. Rail improvements along the rail corridor through Christchurch  KiwiRail LPC Med √ √ $$$ and at LPC Increase backloading at LPC   Freight logistics and customer engagement LPC Med √ $

Empty container storage Requires the buy-in of shipping lines and LPC Med √ $ arrangements   transport operators. Increase capacity of LPC, particularly to cope with  LPC CCC High √ √ $$$ projected container growth Protection of freight corridors Community consultation and competing and land areas adjacent to ALL High √ $-$$$ objectives. freight activities Development of an inland port Multi-party buy-in and collaboration LPC CCC,SDC,WDC Med √ √ $$$ and associated freight precinct Increase Middleton Yard or rail    KiwiRail High √ √ $$-$$$ capacity Community consultation and competing Grade separations of rail and objectives. In the context of Brougham Street, CCC NZTA, KiwiRail High √ $$$$ road at key locations  requires careful consideration given competing uses.

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 27

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 244

Requires agreement between stakeholders on Re-opening of Sumner Road to the level of resilience to be provided along the CCC NZTA, LPC High √ $$-$$$ freight traffic    route. Lyttelton Tunnel duplication  Major consultation and environmental impacts NZTA Med √ $$$$

Common user unpack and pack Requires buy-in of developers, freight forwarding facilities adjacent to the port or ALL Low √ √ $$     companies, suppliers and receivers. inland port Encourage off-peak freight Requires buy-in of transport operators, suppliers   ALL Med √ √ $ movements and receivers Requires buy-in of freight forwarding companies, Increasing Air freight capacity     CIAL Med √ $ airlines, receivers and suppliers. HPMV improvements to the NZTA CCC,SDC,WDC Low √ √ $$ network Improvement of north and west  NZTA CCC Low √ √ $$$$ corridors One Network Road Classification NZTA, CCC,  High √ $ Implementation SDC, WDC

Key

Contribution to outcome High

Medium

Low 

Indicative Cost Range

$0-5million $

$5-50million $$

$50-100million $$$

$100million + $$$$

Project 238113 |Date Revision 2 Page 28

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 245

6. Glossary

Term Definition 3PL Third party logistics providers - provide transport services for customers, including storage of freight.

Backloading The practice where a container or non-container truck makes a delivery and a collection during the same trip, i.e. truck is laden in both directions.

CIAL Christchurch International Airport Limited. Operators of Christchurch International Airport.

CHE Container Handling Equipment. This may include gantry cranes, full and empty container handling forklifts, reach stackers and straddle carriers.

Consignee A business receiving and unpacking a container for domestic rail movements (for the purposes of this study), equivalent to an importer for international shipping movements.

Consignor A business packing and dispatching a container for domestic rail movements (for the purpose of this study), equivalent to an exporter for international shipping movements.

Container or shipping Steel boxes designed to carry freight. Maritime containers are often container standardised: 20 feet or 40 feet long and 8 feet wide and high. Domestic containers are much more varied, with lengths including 30, 45, 48 and 53 feet.

Container movement A container movement is the collection of a container from one location (e.g. an intermodal terminal) and transporting it to another location (e.g. an importer).

De-hire The process of returning an empty container to an empty container park.

Empty container park A handling, repair and storage facility for empty containers, usually located close to the port to minimise repositioning costs for shipping lines.

Export For the purposes of this study, export refers to the dispatch of containers from a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) by a vessel to an international or mainland coastal destination.

Exporter A business operated primarily for the purpose of exporting freight, or providing export-related services to other businesses.

Gantry crane A large crane mounted on a platform that usually runs back and forth on parallel tracks (can be rubber tyred or rail-mounted) astride the container stacks. These cranes are generally used at a marine or intermodal terminal to load/unload containers from trains or trucks.

Hardstand An open ground area with a prepared, hard wearing surface. For the purposes of this report, this includes all surfaced intermodal terminal land, including the container stacking area. Hardstand is normally built and rated to take a certain weight, which can dictate stack height.

Full container handling Forklift capable of carrying a fully loaded 20 foot or 40 foot container.

Project 238113 |2 October 2014 Revision 2 Page 29

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 246

Term Definition forklift These forklifts are generally used to transfer fully loaded containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons.

Import For the purposes of this study, import refers to the discharge of containers into a gateway port (e.g. Auckland or Tauranga) from an international, or mainland coastal vessel.

Importer A business operated primarily for the purpose of importing freight, or providing import-related services to other companies.

Intermodal Movement of containers interchangeably between transport modes (e.g. road and rail), where the equipment is compatible within the multiple systems.

Empty container Forklift capable of carrying an empty 20 foot or 40 foot container. These handling forklift forklifts are generally used to transfer empty containers between trucks and empty container storage facilities. Some empty container handling forklifts are able to carry two 20 or 40 foot containers at the same time.

Logistics chain A logistics management system that integrates the sequence of activities from delivery of raw materials to the manufacturer, through to the delivery of the finished product to the customer.

LPC Port of Christchurch. Located in Lyttelton, this is the major gateway port in the Canterbury region and acts as a major trade gateway to the South Island of New Zealand.

Rail terminal operators A business that engages in the loading and unloading of freight and containers on and off trains.

Reach Stacker Reach stackers are able to transport containers (both 20 foot and 40 foot, full or empty) short distances very quickly and to stack them in various rows and heights, depending on its access and the weight of the container. Reach stackers usually have a higher stacking capacity than forklifts. Using reach stackers, container blocks can be kept 2–deep, due to the second row access. Reach stackers are generally used to transfer containers between the hardstand area and trucks or rail wagons.

Reefer Refrigerated container designed to transport refrigerated or frozen freight. They have their own refrigeration equipment incorporated into the container design.

Repositioning Movement of a normally empty container from one location where it is not needed, to another where it is. The export of an empty container is often referred to as repositioning.

Stevedore A business that engages in the loading and unloading of cargo vessels at a port. For the purpose of this study, this relates to containerised freight.

Straddle carrier A straddle carrier is a non-road going vehicle for use in gateway ports, intermodal terminals and transport yards. It is used for stacking and moving standard containers (both full and empty). Straddle carriers pick and carry containers while straddling their load and connect to the top lifting points of the container. Straddle carriers have the ability to stack containers up to 4-high; however, container stacks can only be one container wide with small gaps in between the rows.

Project 238113 |2 October 2014 Revision 2 Page 30

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 247

Term Definition TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit: a container counting unit based on the International Standards Organisation, 20-foot by 8-foot container.

Transhipments To transfer freight or a container from one ship, truck or freight vehicle to another. For the purposes of this study, a transhipment refers to the transfer of containerised freight from one train to another, e.g. maritime import container to a domestic train for delivery intrastate or interstate.

Transport operator A business that transports containerised or non-containerised freight between two locations, e.g. port and import customer.

Project 238113 |2 October 2014 Revision 2 Page 31

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 3 TO CLAUSE 5 248

Aurecon New Zealand Limited Unit 1, 150 Cavendish Road Casebrook Christchurch 8051 PO Box 1061 Christchurch 8140 New Zealand

T +64 3 366 0821 F +64 3 379 6955 E [email protected] W aurecongroup.com

Aurecon offices are located in: Angola, Australia, Botswana, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Lesotho, Libya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam.

Greater Christchurch Transport Statement 249 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 The key transport providers are working together to deliver a seamless transport system over the greater Christchurch area.

The partners have been undertaking a joint Freight Study to develop a shared understanding of demand, infrastructure and possible management directions. This work is intended to assist:

• Integrated transport and land use decision making. • Aligning our transport investments to achieve better value for money.

1 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 250

GCTS Freight Study update - Oct 2014 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 251

Canterbury Growth to freight 2042 movement patterns

2012 % 2042 % UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 252

GCTS Demand Forecasts (updated) Aurecon 2041 (growth) GCTS 2041 Measure or commodity GCTS 2010 (growth) Population 435,000 550,000 (0.9%)

Employment 200,000 244,000 (0.7%)

Containers (TEU) 290,000 1,500,000 (5.3%*) Lower 782,000 (5.5%) Upper 1.5m (5.3%*)

Air freight (tonnes) 25,000^ 400,000 (7.5%) 107,000 (10.6%)

Dry bulk (tonnes) 660,000 1,200,000 (2.6%)

Petroleum (tonnes) 1,000,000 1,800,000 (2.6%) 1,371,000 (1.2%)

Logs (tonnes) 250,000 260,000 (0.1%) 739,000# (6.3%)

Coal (tonnes) 2,300,000 5,000,000 (3.8%) 3,000,000 (1.0%)

* Compound Annual Growth Rate (all other growth rates are based on annual linear growth) ^ Revised to 25,000 was 120,000 # Shows peak demand for the anticipated “Wall of wood” at around 2026 UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 253

GCTS Context Import Distribution 75% 7%

2%

16% UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 254 GCTS Context Export Distribution 6% 2%

52%

40% Major growth forecast UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 255

Emerging Discussion Points

This means Greatest 47.7 an additional growth in million extra demand tonnes of 4,293 between freight will be truck trips 2012 and carried in per day 2042 2027

The majority of Canterbury Demand is freight by weight dominates the dominated by 12 travels within freight task in the commodities of regions rather South Island and which two are than across them is forecast to driven by export continuing doing growth so

UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 256 GCTS Freight Management Directions Statement

• Journey connectedness – land-use integration, improving road/rail transfer efficiencies at hubs including Lyttelton, Woolston, Middleton and Rolleston (inland port), one network road classification • Journey travel choice - increase mode share by rail and increasing air- freight opportunities • Journey reliability – network optimisation and other road freight demand management measures (off-peak time of day, backloads, empty container management) • Journey efficiency - improving corridor capacity between Rolleston and the Port (including Brougham Street), other local road and rail corridor improvements • Journey resilience - re-opening of Sumner Road/Evans Pass, Lyttelton Tunnel improvements

Requires partnership and leadership UDSIC 10. 10. 2014 ATTACHMENT 4 TO CLAUSE 5 257 Next steps

• Approve the recommendations: 1. Notes the development of the Greater Christchurch Freight Study, 2. Endorses the use of the Freight Demand Statement and the Freight Infrastructure Statement as informing documents to the development of the Regional Land Transport Plan and other Recovery Plans, and 3. Agrees to the public release of the Demand and Infrastructure Statements as inputs to ongoing freight planning work. 4. Notes the draft Freight Management Directions Statement that is being finalised as the guiding document for partner actions for ongoing freight planning work. 5. Supports the use of the above documents for the ongoing collaborative work of the GCTS partners who will apply their best endeavours to give effect to the freight priority actions identified.

• Release the Freight Demand and Infrastructure Statements publically • Officers finalise the Freight Directions Management Statement and Action Plan • Officers report back on the Freight Action Plan via CEAG for approval