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Manitoba Department of Conservation and Water Stewardship MANITOBA DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND WATER STEWARDSHIP Provincial Planning on Adaptation for Excessive Moisture in the Manitoba Interlake Region March 2012 | 14.11225.001 D14-012-012 Partner Organizations With funding support provided by: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Manitoba Government commissioned a study for Provincial Planning on Adaptation to Excessive Moisture in the Interlake Region of Manitoba. Previous studies (Swanson et al., 2007; Swanson et al., 2009) on the effects and adaptive capability of the agriculture industry in Manitoba have identified the Interlake Region as having the lowest adaptive capacity rates to climate change in Manitoba. Low adaptive capacity puts the agricultural industry in the Interlake Region at risk of not being able to respond adequately to flooding and other water related issues such as drought. This study aims to make recommendations for the development of a provincial-level strategy to increase the adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector, in the context of reducing risk and vulnerability to excessive moisture. Three components of the study informed the final recommendations: Background research, identifying the state of agriculture in Manitoba, as well as existing programs and policies aimed at agricultural producers. Hydrological modeling, using a sub-watershed case study to determine the possible impact of climate change on streamflow events. Stakeholder consultation (including agricultural producers, environmental NGOs, municipal councilors, etc.), to understand the situation on the ground. By addressing the issues of the region with the lowest adaptive capacity, the hope is that we generate strategies and techniques that could address the needs of other areas within the Province. Final recommendations of the study include recommendations for short-, medium- and long-term implementation. The recommendations focus on: Promoting the use of particular farm-based practices (for water management and crop diversification). Development of programs, policies and legislation that are both flexible and supportive of farmers’ needs. The development of province-led strategies and plans, in coordination with municipalities and conservation authorities. The recommendations include: Improved maintenance schedule to better manage the existing drainage system. The maintenance schedule should be part of a rolling multi-year plan by provincial and municipal governments. The Province should consider reviewing the Conservation District Act to ensure that it is still meeting its intended purpose. A review of all legislation dealing with water management should be undertaken to ensure the framework is up-to-date and effective. Municipalities should be required to develop five-year water management plans, as part of longer-term planning. The Province should create a high-level integrated provincial drainage strategy. Final Report | Provincial Planning on Adaptation for Excessive Moisture in the Interlake Region of Manitoba i MMM Group Limited | March 2012 | 14.11225.001 ii Final Report | Provincial Planning on Adaptation for Excessive Moisture in the Interlake Region of Manitoba MMM Group Limited | March 2012 | 14.11225.001 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Need for a Provincial Strategy ...................................................................................... 1 1.2 Components of the Study ............................................................................................. 2 1.3 Study Partners ............................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative (PRAC) ................................................ 2 1.3.2 Steering Committee .................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Definitions ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.1 Excess Moisture ....................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 Excess Moisture and Climate Change ..................................................................... 4 1.4.3 Adaptive Capacity ..................................................................................................... 5 1.4.4 Water Management .................................................................................................. 5 1.5 Geographical Focus and Study Area ........................................................................... 5 1.5.1 The Interlake Region ................................................................................................ 6 1.5.2 Choice of Icelandic Watershed ................................................................................. 7 2.0 METHOD .......................................................................................... 9 2.1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Hydrological Modeling ................................................................................................ 10 2.3 Stakeholder Engagement ............................................................................................ 10 2.4 Recommendations for a Provincial Strategy ............................................................. 12 3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................. 13 3.1 Manitoba Agricultural Context .................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 Adaptation in the Interlake Region ......................................................................... 14 3.1.2 AgriInsurance ......................................................................................................... 14 3.1.3 AgriInvest ................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.4 AgriStability ............................................................................................................. 16 3.1.5 AgriRecovery .......................................................................................................... 16 3.1.6 Environmental Farm Plan (EFP) and Beneficial Management Practices ............... 17 3.1.7 Conservation Programs .......................................................................................... 20 3.1.8 Conservation Districts ............................................................................................. 20 3.1.9 Integrated Watershed Management Plan ............................................................... 21 3.1.10 Drainage Planning in Manitoba .............................................................................. 21 3.1.11 Development Plans ................................................................................................ 22 Final Report | Provincial Planning on Adaptation for Excessive Moisture in the Interlake Region of Manitoba iii MMM Group Limited | March 2012 | 14.11225.001 3.2 Climate Change Studies .............................................................................................. 22 3.2.1 Canadian National Context..................................................................................... 22 3.3 Summary of Adaptation Options ................................................................................ 24 4.0 HYDROLOGIC MODELING ........................................................... 26 4.1 Rationale for Model(s) Chosen ................................................................................... 26 4.1.1 Description of HEC-HMS ........................................................................................ 26 4.2 Data Requirements ...................................................................................................... 27 4.2.1 Base Model Data .................................................................................................... 27 4.2.2 Data Quality ............................................................................................................ 27 4.2.3 Climate Change Scenarios and Data ..................................................................... 28 4.3 Model Calibration ......................................................................................................... 33 4.4 Analysis of Results ...................................................................................................... 36 4.5 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 39 4.6 Model Limitations ........................................................................................................ 39 4.6.1 Hydrological Model Limitations ............................................................................... 39 4.6.2 Climate Change Uncertainty................................................................................... 40 5.0 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT .................................................. 42 5.1 Letter of Introduction ................................................................................................... 42 5.2 Key Informant Interviews ............................................................................................ 42 5.3 Workshop ....................................................................................................................
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