Jarbawi Faculty of Law and Public Adminsitration, Birzeit University, P.O

The Remaining Palestinian Options

Ali Jarbawi Faculty of Law and Public Adminsitration, Birzeit University, P.O. Box 14, Birzeit, West Bank, Palestine

It seems clear that Israeli strategies have state. Had this been the case, the conflict in changed as a result of the occupation of what the Middle East would by now have been is left of the 1967 Palestinian territories. Ever resolved. Israel, however, has not yet gone since this occupation began, Israeli efforts through this degree of transformation. have focused on accomplishing the classical Changes are restricted to the amendment of Zionist goal of transforming all of Palestine goals so as to get rid of social, economic, and into a Jewish state and achieving an absolute legal responsibility for the largest possible Jewish majority. Continual efforts have been number of Palestinians by relinquishing the made to change the human geography and the smallest possible area and the least amount of demography of the Occupied Territories by sovereignty—a Palestinian autonomy that means of a far-ranging policy of Jewish may be called a “state” or, if it wishes, even settlement, accompanied by strategies for an “empire” and that allows Israel to maintain expelling as many Palestinians as possible control over the maximum possible area of from the area. As time goes on, however, it occupied land while granting the Palestinians has become clear that achieving these goals is the least possible influence over Israel’s much more complex than successive Israeli Jewish future. governments had expected. The basic reasons The Zionist left wing, and left centre, for this were the rapid increase in the number were the first to be convinced of the necessity of Palestinians and their strong commitment of transforming the classical Zionist goal and to stay on their land. The conclusion on the the first to start its implementation. In the end, Israeli side, therefore, was either to continue Shimon Peres managed to impose a plan for with the annexation of all Palestinian lands, execution and, together with Yitzhak Rabin, together with their inhabitants, thus diluting made this plan a practical reality through the the Jewish identity of the Jewish state, with a famous Oslo Accords, which eventually gradual move towards a binational state; or to resulted in the transformation of the Palestin- give up control over the vast majority of ian Liberation Organization (PLO), follow- Palestinians, which meant the abandonment ing its recognition of Israel, into an authority of occupied 1967 Palestinian land to the associated with Israel through unfair but Palestinians. binding agreements. From Israel’s point of Israeli politicians have weighed demo- view, the Palestinian Authority (PA) was not graphic factors against the realities of geogra- the cornerstone of the deconstruction of phy. Priority has been given to the goal of occupation and the establishment of a sover- maintaining a “pure race” rather than that of eign and independent Palestinian state but, retaining all the occupied land. This modifi- rather, a means for Israel to escape the burden cation of the classical Zionist goal has not, for of the Palestinian presence, threatening its most Israeli politicians, made it necessary to existence, while at the same time retaining abandon all the Palestinian territories occu- the largest possible area of Palestinian land. pied in 1967 with a view to getting rid of the The Israeli plan behind the Oslo Accords was demographic burden of their Palestinian to give the PA secondary authority over scat- inhabitants, or to accept the establishment of tered patches within the “Greater Israel” in an independent and sovereign Palestinian exchange for maintaining full control over

Palestinians “squeezed” inside these zones. Palestinians’ existence inside “the Land of This would eliminate the danger of integrat- Israel” by keeping them out of the land, even ing Palestinians into Israel and guarantee that though they are physically still there. there would be no binational state even Following the convergence between though Israel had failed to expel those Pales- Sharon and Peres, the Israeli strategy has tinians. The Oslo Accords were therefore the become one of incurring the least possible only possible means for Israel to stop the loss. And for Israel, the main, and perhaps the gradual flow towards a binational state. At the only, issue regarding the Palestinian state is same time, they guaranteed continued control the West Bank (including Jerusalem). Israel over the occupied Palestinian land. The is connected to “Judaea and Samaria” agreement thus achieved more than one goal through a complicated system of religious, at the same time. strategic, political, security, and economic Ariel Sharon, the right-wing leader who ties that are very difficult to untangle. There had long held fast to the concept of the “Land are more than 400 000 Israeli settlers inside of Israel,” finally agreed to the amended the West Bank, and they constitute an impor- Zionist goal and to the necessity of achieving tant part of the Israeli political mosaic, very this goal to preserve the identity of the Jewish difficult for any Israeli politician to ignore. State. Three reasons may lie behind this trans- Israel cannot, therefore, completely withdraw formation: first, Sharon’s inability to cancel from this part of the Occupied Territories and the Oslo Accords and destroy the PA, which, allow for complete Palestinian sovereignty despite all his attempts, continued to be inter- over them. The Gaza Strip, on the other hand, nationally accepted; second, the abandon- is a totally different case. It constitutes only ment of his ideas regarding the substitute 1.3 % of historical Palestine, is inhabited by Palestinian homeland (“Jordan is Palestine”) 1.3 million Palestinians, and, before the evac- as a result of the signing of a Jordanian– uation of its settlements, had only 7 500 Israeli peace agreement, which reduced the settlers. Its settlements were a heavy security chances that the 1967 Palestinians could be burden for Israel and had no great strategic or expelled to Jordan; and, third, the declaration religious importance. Moreover, a majority of of U.S. President George W. Bush’s vision of the Israeli population has never objected to resolving the conflict through a two-state getting rid of the Gaza Strip and its many solution with Palestine as a viable state, burdens. The Israeli evacuation of this small followed by the U.S. Road Map, which was and unimportant bit of land relieves Israel of adopted by the Quartet and became an inter- the presence of 25 % of the total Palestinian national plan. Because of these declared population under its control, gaining an addi- changes in the internationally backed U.S. tional 10 or 20 years in the current demo- position, Sharon understood that the issue of graphic battle. establishing a Palestinian state had been To take control of the plans to establish decided and that Israel’s intervention would the Palestinian state, and to pre-empt possible be restricted to influencing the conditions, international pressures, Israel initiated the description, and standards of this state. For construction of the Wall of Separation inside Sharon, the Palestinian state has become a the West Bank. The object was to leave Gaza necessary evil guaranteeing the future of to the Palestinians without terminating Israeli Jewish Israel. Instead of preventing the estab- control over it, to squeeze West Bank Pales- lishment of this state, his target is now to tinians inside cantons, and to annex vast areas impose Israeli conditions for its establish- in the West Bank, including greater ment. Sharon has finally come to realize what Jerusalem. Following the imposition of “facts Peres understood from the beginning: the on the ground,” the Israeli tactics include necessity of countering the danger of the proposing a political settlement to the

The Arab World Geographer/Le Géographe du monde arabe 8, no 3 (2005) The Remaining Palestinian Options 120 Palestinians, portrayed as provisional, The first is to refuse the current Israeli settle- whereby the PA is granted wide authority ment, which involves a rump state and offers over the Gaza Strip and West Bank ghettos butchered lands and incomplete sovereignty. (excluding Jerusalem). After 10 to 15 years, if However, the mere persistence of Palestinian Israel feels that its security is guaranteed and rejection of this settlement, as currently has verified “peaceful Palestinian intentions,” proclaimed, is not enough to prevent it from it may launch negotiations with Palestinians being imposed, given of the unilateral manner over final settlement issues. This settlement in which Israel is acting. Palestinians, if they will be predetermined, and will even be de are truly to reject a rump state, must create facto imposed. circumstances that will transform this rejec- Israel’s declaration of its intention to tion into a reality that Israel cannot overcome. annex Jerusalem and the West Bank settle- The only available option in this case would ment blocks, together with the current meas- be the dismantling of the PA. In its absence, ures on the ground involving settlement all Israeli measures aiming to confine and building in the West Bank, including separate out Palestinians from direct Israeli Jerusalem, signifies that Palestinians will not occupation would be of no legal value. With- be able to establish a sovereign and independ- out the PA, Israel will not be able to cover up ent state on Palestinian lands occupied in its continued occupation of Palestinian lands. 1967, even in the presence of a “Road Map” Most importantly, Israel will not be able to and a “Quartet,” and in spite of any political halt the march towards a binational state. The settlement negotiations that may take place in most important requirement for achieving a the current context. Israel does not want a binational state is not to have two authorities, settlement that may be agreed to by Palestini- each controlling each of the two nations (one ans and Arabs; rather, it wants to impose its Jewish-Israeli and one Palestinian). As Israel own settlement and make its conditions part is the occupying power, the strongest, and its of the Road Map, thus transforming its dismantling will be more difficult in this imposed settlement into the internationally conflict, Palestinians, if they want a bina- proposed settlement. This explains why Israel tional state solution, should dismantle the agreed to the international Road Map only weaker entity established by Israel to main- after insisting on 14 substantial amendments tain the purity of its Jewish identity, namely that rob the plan of any real value. In essence, the PA. The Israeli occupation would thus be the Israeli settlement amounts to an agree- exposed once again, as would Israel’s true ment on the establishment of a Palestinian nature as a racist state, one that is squeezing state that will be, even in a best-case scenario, Palestinians inside ghettos and refusing their a rump state: What remains to Palestinians is integration. In time, Israel would have to land Israel does not want to annex because of choose between accepting the reality of the its dense Palestinian population. Israel is binational state with Palestinian integration, even attempting to keep these leftovers to a or accept the full termination of Israeli occu- minimum. As the international community, pation of Palestinian territories and the estab- especially the United States, backs Israel, one lishment of a sovereign and independent can expect no great pressure to be exerted on Palestinian state. In the event of the disman- it to change its plans and accept a withdrawal tlement of the PA, there would be no room for from the occupied Palestinian territories and any “neither-nor” scenarios, with Israel keep- the establishment of a sovereign and inde- ing the largest possible areas and disposing of pendent Palestinian state. as many Palestinians as possible. This is the What are the options for Palestinians, in current Israeli scenario, and it requires the light of their inability to establish their state continued existence of the PA. as they wish? Only two options are available. Is it to be expected that Palestinians will

The Arab World Geographer/Le Géographe du monde arabe 8, no 3 (2005) 121 Ali Jarbawi work for the achievement of this option, and unlikely to accepts ghettos as a final settle- thus dismantle the PA so as to push towards ment to the conflict with Israel. Such a resolu- the transformation of the area into a bina- tion in no way fulfils Palestinian ambitions or tional state, or the definitive end of the occu- needs, and the region will lack stability. In pation—especially given the many interests order for Palestinians not to lose hope, and in that have emerged as a result of the PA’s exis- order for the region not to descend into a tence? The answer is negative. The PA, never-ending cycle of violence, Israel and the despite all its weakness and dependence, is international community will continue to still in demand on the part of the numerous keep the negotiating process open. Meetings Palestinian sectors benefiting from its pres- will continue to be held; the Quartet will ence. It cannot be expected that the Palestin- occasionally issue statements. Donor coun- ian leadership will sacrifice its new and tries will offer bribes for the imposed situa- privileged status, despite the limitations tion to be accepted, in the form of modest but placed on its authority. Israel seems to have dependable donations. Once Israel completes succeeded, through international support, in its division of the West Bank, it will be ready creating the objective and subjective condi- to move this option on to a new dimension, tions for the emergence of a rump state and that is to say, from the Palestinian rump state the postponement into the indefinite future of to the assembled State of Palestine. The trans- a binational state. formation will be concretized by allowing It seems that the only choice left to Pales- Palestinians to exercise wide sovereignty tinians is the choice made for them by Israel over the Gaza Strip, connecting it geographi- since the signature of the Oslo Accords, cally to the Palestinian ghettos in the West namely the rump state. The conflict, there- Bank through Israeli-controlled passage- fore, will not be settled in the next decade. ways. Palestinian ghettos in the West Bank Israel will, however, continue engineering the will be under the control of the State of Pales- realization of this choice by exercising exter- tine, but not under its sovereignty. At a later nal control over the Gaza Strip after its trans- stage, perhaps a few years later, and because formation into a canton disconnected from such a situation will not be sufficient for the the West Bank. In the West Bank, Israel will Palestinians, Israel may, with international continue its activities to transform Jerusalem support, further the establishment of a into a Jewish city; intensify settlement confederal relationship between Jordan and efforts, especially in settlement blocks it the Palestinian state. This will allow for the seeks to annex; finish building the Wall of expansion of the geographic space granted to Separation; and create Palestinian ghettos Palestinians and for large numbers of Pales- that are connected only through Israeli- tinian refugees to be settled outside of Pales- controlled crossing points. Meanwhile, the tine, thus relieving the pressure on Israel PA, through regional and international medi- without expanding the Palestinian state in any ators, will continue to try to improve condi- way that might threaten the Jewish state. tions for the partition of the West Bank and It may be claimed that such an option is try to increase its share of that area. The rela- too good to be true for Israel. However, given tions between Israel and the Palestinians will the current reality of Palestinian weakness, continue to be heavy and difficult, with ups Arab collapse, and international bias in and downs of mutual violence. favour of Israel, we may realize a few years Will the Palestinians accept this result, hence that this is no longer just an option but and will the Israeli-imposed reality transform a reality that stands before the world. itself into a permanent one? Palestinians are

The Arab World Geographer/Le Géographe du monde arabe 8, no 3 (2005)