California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan
The strategy for achieving California’s 2030 greenhouse gas target
arb.ca.gov November 2017
Contents
Executive Summary ES1 Decades of Leadership ES1 The Climate Imperative – We Must Act ES2 California is on Track – But There is More to Do ES3 California’s Path to 2030 ES4 California’s Climate Vision ES5 Enhance Industrial Efficiency & Competitiveness ES7 Prioritize Transportation Sustainability ES8 Continue Leading on Clean Energy ES10 Put Waste Resources to Beneficial Use ES12 Support Resilient Agricultural and Rural Economies and Natural and Working Lands ES13 Secure California’s Water Supplies ES14 Cleaning the Air and Public Health ES15 Successful Example of Carbon Pricing and Investment ES16 Fostering Global Action ES17 Unleashing the California Spirit ES18
Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Background 1 Climate Legislation and Directives 1 Initial Scoping Plan and First Update to the Scoping Plan 5 Building on California’s Environmental Legacy 5 Purpose of the 2017 Scoping Plan 5 Process for Developing the 2017 Scoping Plan 6 Updated Climate Science Supports the Need for More Action 6 California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2030 Target 9 Progress Toward Achieving the 2020 Limit 9 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tracking 12 California’s Approach to Addressing Climate Change 12 Integrated Systems 12 Promoting Resilient Economic Growth 13 Increasing Carbon Sequestration in Natural and Working Lands 13 Improving Public Health 14 Environmental Justice 14 Setting the Path to 2050 18 Intergovernmental Collaboration 19 International Efforts 19 Chapter 2: The Scoping Plan Scenario 22 Scoping Plan Scenario 23 Scenario Modeling 31 Policy Analysis of Scoping Plan Scenario 33
Chapter 3: Evaluations 35 Programs for Air Quality Improvement in California 35 AB 197 Measure Analyses 37 Estimated Emissions Reductions for Evaluated Measures 37 Estimated Social Costs of Evaluated Measures 39 Estimated Cost Per Metric Ton by Measure 44 Health Analyses 47 Potential Health Impacts of Reductions in Particulate Matter Air Pollution 47 Potential Health Impacts of Reductions in Toxic Air Pollution 48 Potential Health Impacts of Active Transportation 48 Future Health Activities 50 Economic Analyses 50 Public Health 57 Environmental Analysis 60
Chapter 4: Key Sectors 62 Low Carbon Energy 65 Industry 69 Transportation Sustainability 73 Natural and Working Lands Including Agricultural Lands 81 Waste Management 88 Water 92
Chapter 5: Achieving Success 96 Ongoing Engagement with Environmental Justice Communities 96 Enabling Local Action 97 Climate Action through Local Planning and Permitting 99 Implementing the Scoping Plan 103 A Comprehensive Approach to Support Climate Action 104 Conclusion 106
Abbreviations 107 Decades of Leadership
From the first law to protect rivers from the impact of gold mining in 1884, to decades of work to fight smog, the Golden State has set the national – and international – standard for environmental protection. California pushes old boundaries, encounters new ones, and figures out ways to break through those as well. This is part of the reason why California has grown to become both the 6th largest economy in the world, and home to some of the world’s strongest environmental protections. And, we have seen our programs and policies adopted by others as they seek to protect public health and the environment. California’s approach to climate change channels and continues this spirit of innovation, inclusion, and success. The 2030 target of 40 percent emissions reductions below 1990 levels guides this Scoping Plan, as the economy evolves to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in every sector. It also demonstrates that we are doing our part in the global effort under the Paris Agreement to reduce GHGs and limit global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius in this century. Governor Brown signs SB 32 recommitting California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan: The California’s efforts to curb climate change. Strategy for Achieving California’s 2030 Greenhouse Gas Target (Plan) builds on the state’s successes to date, proposing to strengthen major programs that have been a hallmark of success, while further integrating efforts to reduce both GHGs and air pollution. California’s climate efforts will: • Lower GHG emissions on a trajectory to avoid the worst impacts of climate change; • Support a clean energy economy which provides more opportunities for all Californians; • Provide a more equitable future with good jobs and less pollution for all communities; • Improve the health of all Californians by reducing air and water pollution and making it easier to bike and walk; and • Make California an even better place to live, work, and play by improving our natural and working lands.
California CCaliforniaarbon E Carbonmissions Emissions by Scoping Plan Sector
11% Electricit Generation In State % Electricit Generation 21% Industrial Imports